[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2102},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":565,"library-sidebar-dao":1568,"library-sidebar-models":1870},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":551,"date":552,"description":553,"extension":554,"meta":555,"navigation":556,"order":557,"path":558,"seo":559,"seoDescription":553,"seoTitle":560,"slug":561,"stem":562,"__hash__":563,"_collection":564},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang.md","巴菲特：2019年5月雅虎财经专访",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":548},"minimark",[9,13,21,27,32,35,38,41,48,51,54,57,60,63,67,70,73,76,79,81,85,88,93,96,99,102,108,110,114,117,123,126,132,135,138,141,144,147,153,156,159,162,165,168,171,174,176,180,183,186,189,192,195,198,204,207,210,213,216,219,222,225,228,230,234,237,243,246,249,257,260,263,266,268,272,278,281,284,287,290,293,296,299,302,305,308,310,314,317,320,323,326,329,332,335,338,341,344,347,349,353,356,359,362,365,368,371,374,377,380,383,386,389,392,394,398,401,404,407,410,412,416,419,422,425,428,430,434,437,440,443,446,449,451,455,458,461,464,467,470,473,476,478,482,485,488,491,494,497,500,503,506,509,512,515,518,521,524,527,530,533,536,539,542,545],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2019年5月雅虎财经专访",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18],"img",{"alt":19,"src":20},"","\u002Fcontent\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fimages\u002Fimage_7931602191994980957.png",[22,23,24],"blockquote",{},[14,25,26],{},"沃伦·巴菲特是现代投资教父，近 50 年间，巴菲特一直经营着伯克希尔·哈撒韦，旗下拥有诸如 GEICO、DQ 等 60 余家公司，以及苹果、可口可乐及其他许多企业的少数权益。825 亿美元的身家令巴菲特成为全球第三富有的人，而他宣誓将这些财富尽数捐赠于慈善事业。以下是雅虎财经视频访谈的中文翻译。",[28,29,31],"h4",{"id":30},"一是否会对持久的经济繁荣感到不安","（一）是否会对持久的经济繁荣感到不安？",[14,33,34],{},"**主持人：**首先来聊聊经济形势。显然，我们正经历着一场颇为持久的经济繁荣？",[14,36,37],{},"**巴菲特：**真的非常持久。",[14,39,40],{},"**主持人：**在你看来，什么信号预示着经济热潮的冷却？",[14,42,43,44],{},"**巴菲特：**我会研究旗下企业的各种相关数据，我喜欢用数字说话。每周我都会收到一些企业周报，但并不是告诉我六个月或三个月后的经济走向，而只是告诉我旗下企业在发生什么，它并不会对我现在的行动，比如购买股票或收购企业，构成任何影响。这些数字中反映的事实确实很有趣，但并不足以成为我的行动指南，",[45,46,47],"strong",{},"如果我们收购了一家企业，我们会一直持有。我们会有丰收年、歉收年，也会有日常年份，有时会遇上灾年，我们非常在意的是价格，但并不在意 12 个月后的情况如何。",[14,49,50],{},"**主持人：**但对这轮经济扩张周期之长，你不感到惊讶吗？",[14,52,53],{},"**巴菲特：**过去 10 年来，令我讶异的经济事件太多了。据我所知，从来没有任何经济学家讨论过长期负利率的后果。你去读凯恩斯、萨缪尔森乃至任何经济论著，没人认真探讨过负利率的影响。但我没记错的话，现在全球已有高达 11 万亿美元的负利率政府债务。眼前的形势前所未有，起码从常识上讲，我们从未见过这种情况：经济持续向好、超低利率以及通胀水平极低，同时，政府赤字还在长期持续增长。眼下的情况的确不同寻常，但不同寻常的事情时有发生，这也是我们做决策时不会依据经济预测的一个原因。我的搭档查理·芒格和我过去 54 年来的所有决定，没有一个是根据经济预测做出的。我们会对特定企业的未来业绩做出商业评估，据此评估需要支付的价格。但我们从不会因为看好明年或后年的经济形势，就认可一笔交易，也从不会因为经济深陷危机低谷，就取消一笔交易，重要的是当时价格合理。",[14,55,56],{},"**主持人：**我猜，你也不怎么关注那些悲催科学家（注：经济学的戏称）？",[14,58,59],{},"**巴菲特：**就投资而言，我对他们是完全不予理睬的。经济学不过是娱乐大众的东西，如同综艺节目一样，我从没见过哪个经济学家成功完成企业收购，或是在股市中大赚特赚。保罗·萨缪尔森倒是赚了不少，但如你所知，他曾是伯克希尔的大股东。经济学家们不过是猜猜而已，经济当中到处都是变量。从严肃科学来讲，苹果是从树上掉下来这件事，从不因时间流逝而改变。不管是政治变革还是再多 400 个变化、变迁，这件事都不会改变，但经济学变量不胜枚举。你得预计到，企业总会有起有落，当收购本地汽车经销商或者麦当劳门店当时候，你不需要太注重收购时机，而必须是以合理价格做成合理的买卖，确保自己收购的是一家经营得当的好企业。你不会说，我之所以要收购这家企业，是因为今年经济增长率是 3%而不是 2.8%之类的话。",[61,62],"hr",{},[28,64,66],{"id":65},"二投资者应该持有多少现金","（二）投资者应该持有多少现金？",[14,68,69],{},"**主持人：**伯克希尔有逾一千多亿美元现金，你说过，你一直想把伯克希尔打造成一座非常安全的城堡。你认为，一位普通投资者持有的现金应占到多大百分比？",[14,71,72],{},"**巴菲特：**这取决于投资者的个人情况。如果你需要靠周薪过活，总得在手头留点现金，你肯定不能刷爆信用卡。但如果你的房贷已经结清，生活开支不高，而且已经有合理的多样化投资组合，那你不需要现金。",[14,74,75],{},"**主持人：**与伯克希尔公司相比，你本人的生活可以更加不需要现金？",[14,77,78],{},"**巴菲特：**对。伯克希尔得对保险进行赔付，投保客户可能遭遇飓风灾害等意外，伯克希尔可能要赔付数十亿美元。伯克希尔有 100 多万的股票持有人，指望我把公司经营好，确保安然度过各种意外。但对我个人来说，即便我退休了，我也有价值数百万美元的股票投资组合，这些组合每年会支付给我大约三万美元的分红。我的孩子已长大成人，房贷等一切都已结清，我不用太担心手上没有足够的现金周转。",[61,80],{},[28,82,84],{"id":83},"三苹果公司就像一个农场","（三）苹果公司就像一个农场",[14,86,87],{},"**主持人：**聊聊苹果公司吧。你持有大约 450 亿美元的苹果股权，你会密切追踪苹果公司的最新情况吗？",[14,89,90],{},[45,91,92],{},"巴菲特：如果需要密切追踪一家公司的动态，那你就不该拥有这家公司的股权。",[14,94,95],{},"**主持人：**真的吗？",[14,97,98],{},"**巴菲特：**当然了，如果你买下一座农场，你会隔三差五去农场看看玉米长多高了吗？你会因为有人说受出口影响、今年农产品价格料将走低而过分担忧吗？ 当你买下这座农场时，想的是一直持有它。我在 1980 年代买下一家农场，我的儿子经营着农场，但我只去过一次。就算我在旁边盯着，农作物也不会长得更快，我在旁边喊着“加油，加油”助威，也于事无补。我知道农产品价格会涨涨跌跌，我知道有些年份的收成会好过其他年份，但既然我已经买了农场，我不会在意经济预测之类的劳什子。我在意的是，农场可以常被到悉心照料。我希望收成越来越好，而结果大体上也是如此。事实上，100 年前这座农场或许每英亩可以收获 30 蒲式耳，甚至 35 蒲式耳玉米。而到今天，收成好的年份能收获 200 蒲式耳。这个国家在不断进步。与数百年前相比，大宗商品价格的波动越来越小，因为我们越来越擅长农业耕种了。不论种的是棉花、玉米还是大豆等各式各样的作物，你我都是受益者。",[14,100,101],{},"**主持人：**所以，苹果公司就像一座农场？",[14,103,104,105],{},"**巴菲特：**对，这是一笔长期投资。如果你拥有镇上最好的汽车经销商，最知名的品牌，交给优秀管理者来经营就好了。你不必每天都到店里问“今天来了多少顾客？”；你也不会说，“我觉得利率略有上升，也许我们应该减缓销售”，你不会这样做的。在买下这家店的时候，你就清楚，一年有 365 天，你要拥有这家店 20 年，那就是 7300 天。",[45,106,107],{},"日复一日，年复一年，事物会不断变化，如果日常琐事都要看得那么重，你就不该买下它。",[61,109],{},[28,111,113],{"id":112},"四回购分红政策不应该由政府决定","（四）回购、分红政策不应该由政府决定",[14,115,116],{},"**主持人：**近期回购是个热门话题，你的回购规模也不小。年报显示，从 2018 年 12 月 13 日到 24 日，你们回购了价值约 2.33 亿美元的伯克希尔股票，恰恰买在了股市的阶段性底部。你是如何料到这一点的？当时你是怎么想的？",[14,118,119,120],{},"**巴菲特：**我如果真能料事如神，回购就不会才 2 亿美元了，对我们来说，这规模并不算大。当所有业务需求得到满足，而且手上有大笔过剩现金时，我们就会回购伯克希尔股票。去年，我们在地产、工厂和设备上花费了 140 亿美元，远远超出折旧价值。当满足了业务需求后，我们手上仍有过剩现金。",[45,121,122],{},"我们最喜欢做的事，是寻找收购的企业，但如果我和我的搭档查理·芒格都认为伯克希尔的股价低于内在商业价值时，我们就会回购。",[14,124,125],{},"**主持人：**当时显而易见正处在这个节点上吗？",[14,127,128,129],{},"**巴菲特：**对，我们是这么认为的。",[45,130,131],{},"不过，真正诱人的是股价大跌的时候，这就跟你以 0.6 或 0.7 美元折价购买一美元钞票一样，股市也会周期性地出现这类机会。每当出现这样意外的惊喜，只要我们有过剩的现金，就会以最快的速度买进这类股票。",[14,133,134],{},"**主持人：**这更像是 2009 年的情景，而不只是这财季的 12 月份，对吧？",[14,136,137],{},"**巴菲特：**是的。如果我们共同拥有一家麦当劳门店，这家店价值 100 万美元，你拥有 50%的股权，然后你来找我说，“我准备以 40 万美元出清我的股权”，我会马上把你买断的。",[14,139,140],{},"**主持人：**不过，你如果这样做，我会有所警觉（不卖的）。",[14,142,143],{},"**巴菲特：**当然，你应该有所警觉。但如果你想要 60 万美元，我就会对你说“明天再来吧。”",[14,145,146],{},"**主持人：**我们继续聊回购，参议员舒默和桑德斯希望政府立法，对允许公司回购的时间做出监管，近期有报告称，企业高管们可能会在回购期间搞内幕交易。股票回购问题急需监管吗？",[14,148,149,150],{},"**巴菲特：**任何事项总会有某些行为失当的人，这与回购实际上没多大关系。根据我多年的观察，回购与不法活动的关系几乎为零。但这也许只是因为其中无机可乘。我不理解那篇报告的结论。",[45,151,152],{},"本质上，回购是在给股东发钱，你也可以通过分红给股东发钱。理论上，企业本来就应该不时给股东发钱，我们是通过回购给股东发钱，我们已经操作过几次了，我们不是通过分红来发钱。大多数公司都会根据分红政策向股东发钱，如果它们持有的现金超过了企业需求，在股价被低估时，回购完全行得通。",[14,154,155],{},"**主持人：**是否应该由政府来告诉企业什么时候、或者至少满足什么样的强制条件才能回购？",[14,157,158],{},"**巴菲特：**美国证交会的常规性规定中，确实对回购做了限制，特别是在发现企业存在某种操纵股价之类行为的时候，虽然这么表述也不是很准确。不过，我不认为企业的分红政策应该由政府决定，我甚至不认为企业的资金投向应该由政府来引导。",[14,160,161],{},"政府会将一些资金投向包装得特别诱人，例如可再生能源。我的意思是，当美国政府有意推进某些领域的长期发展的时候。但随着劳动分工越来越专业化，你没有出彩技能，社会专业化程度还在加深，社会得为这样一个人提供两样东西。一是让他们过上体面生活，他们生活在一个人均 GDP 为 60000 美元的国家，应该让他们生活体面。同时，还应该让他们获得成就感。只要他们没有生理缺陷，就应该让他们能找到工作。",[14,163,164],{},"最低薪资标准是“确保他们口袋里有足够的钱”，但这会对市场体系造成很多不必要的干扰，这让他们口袋里有更多的现金，但却不是更高的劳动报酬。政府完全可以用相对低的成本为人们提供体面生活，为那些每周工作 40 小时、家里抚养几个孩子的人们服务。社会趋势正是如此，似乎两党都赞同这样的做法，共和党和民主党均对此表示支持。",[14,166,167],{},"我认为，比起一年一度的税收抵免，逐月抵免的形式更佳。政府可以为他们做各种各样的事，但应该让他们在市场体系里找到归属感，随着美国这只经济大鹅不断产下金蛋，让他们分到更多的份额。",[14,169,170],{},"**主持人：**如果不这么做，当民主党赢得大选，也许富人就要缴纳巨额税款，以支持免费大学教育，那都是非常远大的计划。",[14,172,173],{},"**巴菲特：**你希望每个人口袋里都有更多钱，无论是愿意工作的人还是无法工作的人，我们可以这样做，富裕家庭都会这么做。如果你有 6、7 个孩子，有可以传承的事业，你肯定会选最能干的一位接手家业，因为市场体系要求如此，但同时，你也得确保 7 个孩子都能参与分享。你可能会分出一块更大的蛋糕给尽心操持的那个孩子，但对于最不能干的孩子，他\u002F她也许很乐于分享，是大家的开心果，在大多数方面都很最棒。你不能对他\u002F她说：“没办法，市场体化就是这样”，“给你的配偶找份活干，然后搬出去另找住所吧”。",[61,175],{},[28,177,179],{"id":178},"五企业如何做医保","（五）企业如何做医保",[14,181,182],{},"**主持人：**我们聊聊医保倡议的最新进展？现在这家公司有了名字——“避风港”（注：摩根大通的戴蒙、亚马逊的贝佐斯与伯克希尔的巴菲特合作成立的医保项目，旨在改善三家公司雇员的医保待遇），这个名字是你起的吗？",[14,184,185],{},"**巴菲特：**不是。我从来不会操心名字，依我看，这项目即使没名字，照样可以再运作 10 年，我们的这个合作项目非常强有力，拥有可观的规模和颇为雄厚的市场实力。我们三家企业旗下有逾 100 万名员工，老板都是实干家，组织庞大却不官僚，如果其他很多大公司推这件事，会有来自法律和公共关系的各方面压力，但我们从来没有这些烦恼。我们达成了统一承诺，并有能力兑现承诺。",[14,187,188],{},"问题是，美国医保是一个高达 3.4 万亿美元的产业，这相当于美国政府一年的财政收入，而这个产业自我感觉运作非常好。比如，当我们四处交流、想招一位主管时，每个人都说，美国医疗体系能生产优质药物。然而，当医保成本从 GDP 的 5%飙升至 18%的同时，还期望美国的医药公司在国际上保持竞争力，这不现实。所有人都认为美国医疗体系亟需调整，但只要别调整到自己头上就行，人性就是如此**。**",[14,190,191],{},"我相信，如果我处在同样位置，我也会同样这么做。尽管改变面对重重阻力，但至少所有人都认同形势亟需改变。当然，如果私人部门长期不付诸行动，人们就会说，“还是算了吧”，到时我们就不得不把改革任务交给政府，这可能令事态变得更糟。",[14,193,194],{},"**主持人：**你和杰米、杰夫多久交流一次？我知道，托德·库姆斯是你指派的话事人。",[14,196,197],{},"**巴菲特：**托德的确承担了一切工作，如果这事办成了，从伯克希尔的角度来看，100%全部都是托德的功劳。",[14,199,200,203],{},[45,201,202],{},"主持人：","“避风港”需要收购其他公司来获取专业技术吗？",[14,205,206],{},"**巴菲特：**不需要。",[14,208,209],{},"**主持人：**有什么计划吗？",[14,211,212],{},"**巴菲特：**计划就是支持对医保有独到思考的人（注：指“避风港”CEO 阿图·葛文德，印裔美籍医学博士，白宫历史上最年轻的医疗政策顾问，奥巴马医保政策关键智囊）。",[14,214,215],{},"他是一名执业外科医生，享有医学界尊重，能找到实际的解决办法，让我们可以提供更好的医保，提升人们对医保的满意度。长此以往，人们一定能意识到，他们正在享受更好的医保，医保成本在美国经济产出中的占比飙升也有望遏制。美国拥有无与伦比的经济体制，但当其他国家通过相似改革，在人均医生数、人均病床数等指标上大幅提升的同时，美国人付出的医保成本不应该高达 GDP 的 18%。我认为，顶级的医药产品高度集中在美国，这当然很好，我希望美国在这个领域中遥遥领先，但我们正在为此付出代价，如果我们每年多付出 7%的 GDP，一年就是 1.4 万亿美元。",[14,217,218],{},"**主持人：**政府是否正在关注这些？如果政府专注于改革药品价格，这会不会成为一个“兔子洞”、导致我们忽略大局？",[14,220,221],{},"**巴菲特：**他们正在尝试。你随便找一位众议员聊聊你就知道了，国会把这看作是一个问题。他们能从现实中看到，药品价格及其他事项都是亟需改变的大问题。问题在于，药品价格牵一发动全身，这是我们安排葛文德掌管项目的原因，他背后有三家大型组织支持他，我们无意通过“避风港”盈利，我们的最终目的不是打造一家盈利企业。",[14,223,224],{},"**主持人：**葛文德会与医疗保险公司交流吗？",[14,226,227],{},"**巴菲特：**他会与形形色色的人打交道，我们并不打算公开他的运营计划，因为某种角度来说，只有他自己最清楚运营计划。我的意思是，我们因口口相传的美誉、黑纸白字的报道和他的功绩成就选择了他。不过，随着项目不断推进，他会继续学习，我们或者他会开展某些实验，在拥有诸多员工的我们三家公司之一进行局部尝试，有各种各样的试验方式。",[61,229],{},[28,231,233],{"id":232},"六通用电气的吸引力没那么大了","（六）通用电气的吸引力没那么大了",[14,235,236],{},"**主持人：**你曾投资过通用电气，而且这笔投资收获颇丰。",[14,238,239,242],{},[45,240,241],{},"巴菲特","：是的，实际上我出手过早了。回头去看，2008 年 9 月下旬到 10 月初我一度非常活跃，在 10 月晚些时候我写了那篇文章（注：巴菲特 2008 月 10 月 16 日在纽约时报发表著名文章《买入美国正当时》）。当时，我在文章里写了，经济形势会越来越糟，但我没想到，从那时到次年三月，股市会跌那么多，在股市触底之前，我几乎把手上所有的弹药都打光了。",[14,244,245],{},"**主持人：**近来你为何不再投资通用电气呢？通用电气应该与你们接触过，每个人都在问，为什么沃伦·巴菲特不再投资通用电气，救助它平稳着陆？它可是一家伟大的美国公司。",[14,247,248],{},"**巴菲特：**我觉得拉里实际上干得不错。",[14,250,251,252,256],{},"**主持人：**拉里·卡尔普？（注：拉里·卡尔普，2001-2014 年任",[253,254,255],"em",{},"通用电气","CEO，2018 年 10 月任通用电气董事长暨 CEO 至今）",[14,258,259],{},"**巴菲特：**对，说的是拉里·卡尔普，他与丹纳赫集团的交易是一笔好买卖，我认为他明白事情的轻重缓急。（注：2019 年 2 月 25 日，丹纳赫集团以 214 亿美元收购通用电气旗下全部生物制药业务。）",[14,261,262],{},"在我看来，他能力出众，走的路子也是对的，我算是通用电气的拥簇，伯克希尔是他们产品的大买家，同时也是向他们出售产品的大卖家。我和通用电气的经理们相互认识，你知道，杰克·韦尔奇是我非常好的朋友（注：约翰·“杰克”·韦尔奇，1981 年至 2001 年任通用电气 CEO，期间大刀阔斧裁员高达 40%，将年营业额从 250 亿美元提高至 1400 亿美元）。",[14,264,265],{},"我们的政见并不完全一致，但是我们相处融洽，我喜欢这个家伙，我期待通用电气一切向好，不过，这家公司对我的吸引力没那么大了。",[61,267],{},[28,269,271],{"id":270},"七五片树林的重要性","（七）“五片树林”的重要性",[14,273,274,277],{},[45,275,276],{},"主持人","：你在致股东信中谈到了“五片树林”，其中提到的“第三片树林”重要性不上不下。",[14,279,280],{},"（注：2018 年巴菲特在致股东信中将伯克希尔五大业务比喻为“五片树林”，即控股的非保险公司、对大公司 5%至 10%的股权投资、伯克希尔与其他方共享控制权的公司、美国国库券和现金或固定收益、保险业务）",[14,282,283],{},"**巴菲特：**是的，就是在其他公司中的控股。",[14,285,286],{},"**主持人：**是不是说这些控股并不是最健硕的“树林”？为什么会形成这样的局面？",[14,288,289],{},"**巴菲特：**这些都是按照美国通用会计准则，我们必须作为权益资产计入账上的公司。我们在这些公司中的控股比例超过 20%，但是我们不具有实际控制权，在美国通用会计准则下，这些控股属于一个特殊类别，它无法归入其他“树林”。所以，我不得不将它辟出来作为单独的“树林”，但作为“树林”，它的重要性稍显不足。",[14,291,292],{},"**主持人：**你说过，伯克希尔的整体要大于它的部分之和。",[14,294,295],{},"**巴菲特：**没错。",[14,297,298],{},"**主持人：**你有算过伯克希尔的整体价值具体是多少吗？",[14,300,301],{},"**巴菲特：**这取决于市场环境，有时保险公司的浮存金非常可观。有时，我们旗下的公用事业公司可以享受生产税收抵免，作为伯克希尔汇算清缴的一部分，这些抵免就令我们受益良多。不过，政策千变万化，这是锦上添花的事。",[14,303,304],{},"我们也可以转移资本，以我们 40 多年前收购的喜诗糖果为例，它是一家优秀的小企业，现金流源源不断 ，我们尝试了 50 种不同办法扩张，可我们就算再努力，也是徒劳。但是我们可以转移这部分资本，帮助收购 BNSF 铁路或者做其他各种事。我们有税优的途径，可以将资本无缝转移到需要它的地方。",[14,306,307],{},"我们旗下一些公司真的很烧钱，而另一些公司能不断产出现金，我们可以做资本安排，如果投资的公司之间做资金转移，会有税收损耗，税优效果比我们的途径要差。",[61,309],{},[28,311,313],{"id":312},"八伯克希尔内部重要的人事安排","（八）伯克希尔内部重要的人事安排",[14,315,316],{},"**主持人：**你曾说过，阿吉特·贾恩和格雷格·阿贝尔身上流淌着伯克希尔的血液，自他们被提拔为副董事长以来，是否已经有所作为？日后他们会成为沃伦和查理这样的好搭档吗？",[14,318,319],{},"**巴菲特：**不，他们之间没有关联，他们各自经营不同的业务。阿吉特不会插手其他业务，他全部心思在保险业务上，格雷格从不插手保险业务。而现金、资本之类的东西，是由我来考虑的。",[14,321,322],{},"他们经营着两项庞大业务。阿吉特的业务涉及数千亿美元资产，而格雷格的业务能带来 1500 亿美元营收。按净值算，他们都能跻身全美前 10 或者前 15，这两项业务确实非常庞大。",[14,324,325],{},"**主持人：**不过他们之间的关系不完全像你和芒格？",[14,327,328],{},"**巴菲特：**对，查理和我是合伙人关系，我们会全盘考虑公司的方方面面。我们始终是这么做的，目前依旧如此。",[14,330,331],{},"**主持人：**托德和特德怎么样？没见你提起他们？",[14,333,334],{},"**巴菲特：**他们各自管理着 130 亿美元的资产，其中包括他们经营的伯克希尔养老基金。伯克希尔有 1730 亿美元权益资产，除此之外，我们还有 80 亿美元的养老基金，加起来是 1800 多亿美元。他俩管理的资产累计 260 亿美元。对这 260 亿美元，他们享有完全的自主权，不需要向我请示。月底时，我会看看他们做了什么，他们一般不会做什么大动作，不会频繁交易或者其他类似的事情，不过我要看的是他们做出了什么样的变化。例如，托德做过两三笔私募形式的小型投资，我很清楚那几家公司都是做什么的，但它们的名字我不能告诉你，那是他的心头肉。",[14,336,337],{},"**主持人：**其中一家是不是甲骨文，伯克希尔曾对甲骨文有过一笔投资，后来清仓了。那是他们做的吗？",[14,339,340],{},"**巴菲特：**不，那不是他们做的，是我做的。",[14,342,343],{},"**主持人：**你当时还说，你看不懂甲骨文的商业逻辑，所以你才清仓的。如此说来，你当初为什么买入甲骨文呢？",[14,345,346],{},"**巴菲特：**这是个好问题，我给不出一个好的答案。我看得到（云业务的）发展，但我对云业务了解得越多，越觉得自己对云业务不甚了解。",[61,348],{},[28,350,352],{"id":351},"十是否在意分析师对伯克希尔的研究","（十）是否在意分析师对伯克希尔的研究？",[14,354,355],{},"**主持人：**巴克莱银行发布了一篇研究笔记称，他们下调了对伯克希尔的每股盈利预期，你会读这些东西吗？",[14,357,358],{},"**巴菲特：**不会。一定要说读过，我也许偶然会读到它，但我不会特意找它来读，这对我们毫无影响。如果我花时间读这些，那我就没时间读上市公司年报了。我们不会因此改变行事方针，我也不会通过它来知道我们未来能有多少盈利。正如我在年报中所述，在伯克希尔，我们不会准备月度财报。敢明确这么说的公司，恐怕只有我们。准备月报毫无意义，我知道钱都在哪里，我大体知晓公司的财务状况，但那又如何呢？",[14,360,361],{},"我本来就不会为保险销售设置什么季度业绩目标，或其他更糟糕的事，查理也很清楚公司的现状如何，我们都知道哪块业务蒸蒸日上，哪块业务毫无起色，我们当然知道钱在哪里。",[14,363,364],{},"**主持人：**瑞银开展了一项伯克希尔投资者调查，结果显示，投资者最关心的五大要事分别为接班人选、投资业绩、并购机会、股票回购以及保险利润。你会读这些调查吗？你对结果感到惊讶吗？",[14,366,367],{},"**巴菲特：**不会，但是我并不反对调查结果，我很庆幸有人能理解我们。",[14,369,370],{},"**主持人：**那些还是你的投资者。",[14,372,373],{},"**巴菲特：**对，这至关重要。回头看，1956 年我刚刚成立合伙企业，也就是日后伯克希尔的雏形时，当时有七个人围坐桌边共进晚餐，主要是我的亲戚们。",[14,375,376],{},"我说，这就是合伙人协议，遵照内布拉斯加州的法律起草，篇幅四到五页，各位无需通读条款，但这有大概半页纸的“基本准则”，我想让各位读读这个。",[14,378,379],{},"如果你认同这些，比如合伙人之间的互动方式、共同期望以及其他种种，我们就能合作，如果你不认同，那也没事，我们只是做不成合伙人罢了。如果我要与某人缔结合伙人关系，我希望能相处融洽，一旦成了一家上市公司，就得接受形形色色的新股东。不管他们觉得伯克希尔应该发放大额分红还是拆分股票，我都不能控制新股东加入，因此，以我的言行及其他方式，尽力从公开市场上吸引想要的股东，把不想要的股东排除在外。",[14,381,382],{},"我记得没错的话，创建了普赖斯会员商店的索尔·普赖斯当初就是坐下来，首先搞清楚了哪些人不是他的目标客户，他建立了一套能够排除非目标客户的体系。（注：索尔·普赖斯创建普赖斯会员商店，于 1993 年与好市多合并，逐步形成了今天好市多的商业版图。）",[14,384,385],{},"哪些客户是他不想要的呢？他不想要只买一盒牛奶的顾客，因为他们会让篮子里装着 200 美元商品的顾客增加排队时间，所以，他通过收取会员费，让所有“凑热闹”的客源去 7-11。我们想让伯克希尔排除那些对公司抱有与我们不同期待的人，这是为他们着想，我衷心期望他们能找到合适公司。如果你经营的是一家教堂，你肯定希望济济一堂的，最起码都是想要听你布道的人。你不希望每周换一拨人，说“天呢，我得找一批新追随者”，“我得出去找些投资者聊聊，让他们这周日来我的教堂”，因为教堂里的席位就那么多。伯克希尔只有大约 164.5 万股 A 类股，这些股份就是席位，我想要与我意见一致的人坐在上面。",[14,387,388],{},"**主持人：**这是“伯克希尔教会”。你投资了杰米·戴蒙的摩根大通，为什么会买这家投资银行？",[14,390,391],{},"**巴菲特：**因为我能看懂银行，当时摩根大通的开价与未来前景相比也非常合适。我坚信，十年后摩根大通的股票会大幅增值，我感觉我的判断大概率是正确的。我并不认为，摩根大通会是所有投资中表现最为出色的一个，但我确信，这笔投资不会令我失望。",[61,393],{},[28,395,397],{"id":396},"十一保险业务面对的新形势","（十一）保险业务面对的新形势",[14,399,400],{},"**主持人：**气候变化是否改变了你们的保险业务？",[14,402,403],{},"**巴菲特：**不，它并未改变保险业务。如果我们承保的是 20 年保单，气候变化才会改变我们的保险业务。可能改变死亡率的事件，不利于寿险公司，寿险保单的保险责任可能长达 20 年。如果形势对保险公司不利，顾客肯定会继续把保费交下去，长期护理保险业务就是个很好的例子。但是，如果承保的是续保年期为 1 年的保单，需要走一步看一步。",[14,405,406],{},"比如，开车比以前安全多了，过去每行驶 1 亿英里就会有 15 例死亡，现在，这个数字略高于 1 例。同时，汽车修理费也比以前贵多了，过去花 10 美元就能修好的小小侧镜，现在得花上 1000 美元左右。所以，站在不同角度，很多事会有不同影响。碰撞险必须面对一个现实，挡风玻璃、保险杠和侧镜等等配件价格比以前贵得多；但是个人责任险，车祸死亡已经不像过去那般频繁了。",[14,408,409],{},"气候一直在发生变化，但真相是，与 2005 年前后相比，因为美元汇率变化和人口集中度，现在你可以用更加低廉的保费，买到赔付额上限极高的巨灾保险。迄今为止，保险费率不断下滑，是我们退出车险业务的一大原因。12 年前，伯克希尔曾是车险的承保大户，我们不是因为气候变化退出车险业务的，我们退出车险业务，是因为费率不合适。世界变化无常，会造成非常严重的后果，但是每年之间的气候变化不会太大，在气候变化的过程里，我们的业绩依旧喜人。",[61,411],{},[28,413,415],{"id":414},"十二互联网带来的风险","（十二）互联网带来的风险",[14,417,418],{},"**主持人：**你曾谈到，技术发展速度快于人类理解力的进化速度，社交媒体、Facebook、谷歌和俄罗斯网络水军的出现，是否就是例证？你对此感到担忧吗？",[14,420,421],{},"**巴菲特：**我认为，网络对人类构成了实实在在的风险，更别提虚假信息带来的问题。我们旗下拥有 22000 余英里铁路，有些铁路承运氨气，有些铁路承运氯气和其他东西，我们必须承运它们，我们别无选择，法律要求我们履行承运义务。",[14,423,424],{},"我宁可在无网世界开展这些业务，这比在网络世界里要强。任何事情都可能发生，但网络问题，在于它的瞬息万变。你难以预料自己是否会碰上一些疯狂的家伙，比如把炭疽杆菌塞进信里，网络会放大这些事情。我们都见证了 9\u002F11 事件中 19 个恐怖分子犯下的罪行，一旦某些疯狂的个人、团体甚至个别政府运用一些工具这么做，具有毁灭性。",[14,426,427],{},"我们并不清楚他们都掌握了哪些工具，情况随时随地都在变化我想再次引用爱因斯坦的话，“我不知道第三次世界大战会使用什么武器，但第四次世界大战会使用棍子和石头”，这是个险象环生的世界。",[61,429],{},[28,431,433],{"id":432},"十三如何看待马斯克","（十三）如何看待马斯克？",[14,435,436],{},"**主持人：**你怎么看伊隆·马斯克作为 CEO 的行事作风？",[14,438,439],{},"**巴菲特：**我认为，他还有提高的空间。有些人善于发表有趣的言论，而其他人脑子里总是绷着一根弦，担心表达观点会招致麻烦。不过，他是个出类拔萃的家伙，但我看不到有任何沟通的必要性。",[14,441,442],{},"我大概总共就发了七条推文，因为我的一个朋友替我注册了推特，她给我打了不下一百次的电话，问我能不能发这条或者那条推文。我想我大概对她说了七次“好的”，没有一条推文是我亲自写的，我甚至不知道怎么发推特。",[14,444,445],{},"**主持人：**你和伊隆交流过吗？",[14,447,448],{},"**巴菲特：**他参加了“捐赠誓言”，我们见过一两次，不过那是很多年以前了，七、八年了吧，他一直没来我们的年会，我也七、八年没见过他了。",[61,450],{},[28,452,454],{"id":453},"十四如何看待中美贸易战","（十四）如何看待中美贸易战？",[14,456,457],{},"**主持人：**聊聊中美贸易战，你觉得唐纳德·特朗普点名中国政府，提请他们注意的做法正确吗？",[14,459,460],{},"**巴菲特：**我不予置评。谈起政治活动，我不会将自己的公民义务交给保密信托基金来打理（注：blind trust，信托人对投资方式不知情，避免从政者为自身需要影响政策决定）。大选的时候，我会有所行动。人们会将我的看法解读为伯克希尔的立场，但这些言论并不代表伯克希尔的立场，我只代表我个人。我乐意讨论中国，但是我不能和你聊中美贸易战。",[14,462,463],{},"**主持人：**你认为中美贸易关系还存在改善空间吗？",[14,465,466],{},"**巴菲特：**在我看来，中国和美国注定会是超越百年的超级大国。他们永远会是竞争对手，会是商业对手、观念对手，是方方面面的对手。我们确信，在不忘竞争的同时，美国与中国共同繁荣，才是最美好的世界。在核武时代，谁都不想成为觊觎环伺的繁荣孤岛。中国不想，俄罗斯也不想，大家都意识到了放任竞争失控的危险性。在不敌对的情况下互相竞争，无论时代变迁，强国都必须认识到这一点。200 年前的时代可以存在某个霸主国家，但现在世道变了，那些国家或许做了些你不感冒的事情，但这威胁不到世界的存在。国家之间可以相互竞争，可以为了某些事情摩擦，但不可以把竞争视同于战争。当重要大国不能始终认识到这一点，世界才会真正受到威胁。",[14,468,469],{},"**主持人：**你认为中国与美国可以化解两国之间的分歧，还是说冲突不可避免？",[14,471,472],{},"**巴菲特：**我认为冲突并非不可避免，每个超级强国都应该积极思考。俄罗斯是一个超级强国，美俄拥有世界上 90%的核武器，两国必须意识到，只有当它们不再带着“赢家通吃”的思维去看待世界，世界才是最美好的，我们必须认识到这一点。",[14,474,475],{},"我们不能有“要么美国观念统治世界，要么美国大棒伺候”的想法，中国不能这么想，俄罗斯也不能那么想，这是显而易见的，必须确保事态不会升级，第一次世界大战因斐迪南大公遇刺而爆发，是有概率的事件。我问过一任总统，如果有人在半夜叫醒他，告诉他另一个国家绝对是发射核弹了，你会发起核反击吗？你有 10 分钟的决定时间。“我可不想承担那样的责任”，那你就得确保事态不会恶化到那种地步。",[61,477],{},[28,479,481],{"id":480},"十五有些事引发关注会在中国重大收购","（十五）有些事引发关注，会在中国重大收购",[14,483,484],{},"**主持人：**你会在中国进行重大收购项目吗？如果不会，你是否因此错过极大部分……",[14,486,487],{},"**巴菲特：**答案是我们会进行收购。",[14,489,490],{},"**主持人：**你已经在观望了吗？",[14,492,493],{},"**巴菲特：**是的，有些事已引起了我们的关注。",[14,495,496],{},"**主持人：**你会担心中国法治环境差异和财务不透明吗？",[14,498,499],{},"**巴菲特：**我当然要搞清楚中国的会计准则，显而易见，一些业务会比其他业务更容易。我需要在跨国投资时越过一个个小障碍，我能够克服，只是不会像在过往交易中找答案那样轻车熟路罢了。我们更容易在美国进行重大收购，如果我感兴趣的标的在美国之外，我就得做更多功课 ，但我享受做功课的过程。十几年前，我们在以色列进行了一项收购，当时我不知道那里的税率是多少，也不了解当地公司法，我当时想的是船到桥头自然直，结果当然令人满意，但我也不是自动就知道答案的。",[14,501,502],{},"**主持人：**与先前的谈话相比，你似乎对在中国做交易持更开放的态度了。",[14,504,505],{},"**巴菲特：**我不这么想，我一直是开放的。我们在中国已经完成了两笔具有相当规模的股票购买交易，结果不错。",[14,507,508],{},"**主持人：**哪两个？",[14,510,511],{},"**巴菲特：**中石油和比亚迪，比亚迪是查理的项目，查理可是个中国通。",[14,513,514],{},"**主持人：**美国的贸易逆差不断扩大，当然，其中多数与中美贸易相关，你对此感到担忧吗？",[14,516,517],{},"**巴菲特：**我为《财富》杂志撰写过一篇相关文章，文中也谈到了很多年前的贸易局势，当时美国贸易逆差在 GDP 中的占比也很高。我并不认为必须要贸易平衡，但我认为，如果贸易逆差不断扩大而无法改善，随着时间推移，它会发酵成一个实实在在的问题。",[14,519,520],{},"美国其实就是在向世界其他国家输送绿纸（美元），而他国则在向你输送货物。他国人民生产内裤或者鞋子，他们从我们这里得到绿纸，这事做得多了，这些绿纸随着时间推移逐渐贬值的点子，会非常诱人，尤其是在他们想将绿纸变现换成别的东西的时候。",[14,522,523],{},"贸易逆差是司空见惯的现象，但是如果贸易逆差的数额过大，我们就会作茧自缚，待到我们无法消减逆差的时候，就会成为问题。我曾经写过相关文章，其实贸易逆差是件好事，你只消输出绿纸，别人就会供你吃喝，你不乐意这样吗？",[14,525,526],{},"**主持人：**我们正生活在这样的世界里。",[14,528,529],{},"**巴菲特：**对，确实如此。美国把这叫作信用卡。",[14,531,532],{},"**主持人：**中国经济正面临近三十年来的最慢经济增长，中国领导层把增速目标降至大约 6.5%、6%，你对中国增速放缓及其对全球市场的影响感到担忧吗？",[14,534,535],{},"**巴菲特：**从全球市场的角度看，我毫不担心，中国在未来依旧有巨大的增长潜力。回顾 1949 年以来的发展历程，中国经历了前所未有的变化。1949 年，中国大约占全球人口的 20%，但完全没有发挥出自己的潜力。中国人民非常聪明智慧，中国地大物博，发生的一切让人难以置信，游戏尚未终结。不过，美国也取得了难以置信的发展，人均实际 GDP 已是我出生时的六倍，当时我们已经认为美国是个相当发达的国家了。",[14,537,538],{},"我父母不会相信的，他们大概会觉得，这孩子出生在美国真是生来的福气，这是事实。我们一路顺风顺水，但在近数十年里，中国好像像飓风一样后来者快跑。中国人民让这样一个人口规模的国家发生翻天覆地的变化，我认为这是前所未有的壮举，我们也取得了相同成就，但美国的发展历程更漫长。",[14,540,541],{},"这是日新月异的发展。1995 年我第一次造访中国，当时他们已经将中国经济发展视为一个奇迹，10 年后我再度造访中国，它又脱胎换骨成了一个全然不同的国家。",[14,543,544],{},"**主持人：**感谢你做客本节目！",[14,546,547],{},"（全文完）",{"title":19,"searchDepth":549,"depth":549,"links":550},2,[],"访谈与文章",null,"雅虎财经专访投资教父巴菲特，探讨其近50年经营伯克希尔的经验，分享投资哲学与未来投资机会。","md",{},true,128,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang",{"title":5,"description":553},"巴菲特：2019年5月雅虎财经专访｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang","VCxnIArqqu2ODLus4HFYwGiYqM_GOjgWfHgN5dSzYnA","buffett",[566,571,574,578,581,584,587,591,594,597,601,604,607,611,614,617,621,624,627,631,634,637,641,644,647,651,654,657,661,664,667,671,674,677,681,684,687,691,694,697,701,704,707,711,714,717,721,724,727,731,734,737,741,744,747,752,755,758,762,765,768,772,775,778,782,785,788,792,795,798,802,805,808,812,815,818,822,825,828,832,835,838,842,845,848,852,855,858,862,865,868,872,875,878,882,885,888,892,895,898,902,905,909,912,916,919,923,926,930,933,937,940,944,947,951,954,958,961,965,968,972,975,979,982,986,989,993,996,1000,1003,1007,1010,1014,1017,1021,1024,1028,1031,1035,1038,1042,1045,1049,1052,1056,1059,1063,1066,1070,1073,1077,1080,1084,1087,1091,1094,1098,1101,1105,1108,1112,1115,1119,1122,1126,1129,1133,1136,1140,1143,1147,1150,1154,1157,1161,1164,1168,1171,1175,1178,1182,1185,1189,1192,1196,1199,1203,1206,1210,1213,1217,1220,1224,1227,1231,1234,1238,1241,1245,1248,1252,1255,1259,1262,1266,1269,1273,1276,1280,1283,1287,1290,1294,1297,1301,1304,1308,1311,1315,1318,1322,1325,1329,1332,1336,1339,1343,1346,1350,1353,1357,1360,1364,1367,1371,1375,1379,1383,1387,1391,1395,1399,1403,1407,1411,1415,1419,1423,1427,1431,1435,1439,1443,1447,1451,1455,1459,1463,1467,1471,1475,1476,1480,1484,1488,1492,1496,1500,1504,1508,1512,1516,1520,1524,1528,1532,1536,1540,1544,1548,1552,1556,1560,1564],{"title":567,"slug":568,"category":569,"order":570},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":572,"slug":573,"category":551,"order":570},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian",{"title":575,"slug":576,"category":577,"order":570},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":579,"slug":580,"category":569,"order":549},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":582,"slug":583,"category":551,"order":549},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":585,"slug":586,"category":577,"order":549},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":588,"slug":589,"category":569,"order":590},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":592,"slug":593,"category":551,"order":590},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":595,"slug":596,"category":577,"order":590},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":598,"slug":599,"category":569,"order":600},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":602,"slug":603,"category":551,"order":600},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":605,"slug":606,"category":577,"order":600},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":608,"slug":609,"category":569,"order":610},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":612,"slug":613,"category":551,"order":610},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":615,"slug":616,"category":577,"order":610},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":618,"slug":619,"category":569,"order":620},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":622,"slug":623,"category":551,"order":620},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":625,"slug":626,"category":577,"order":620},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":628,"slug":629,"category":569,"order":630},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":632,"slug":633,"category":551,"order":630},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":635,"slug":636,"category":577,"order":630},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":638,"slug":639,"category":569,"order":640},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":642,"slug":643,"category":551,"order":640},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":645,"slug":646,"category":577,"order":640},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":648,"slug":649,"category":569,"order":650},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":652,"slug":653,"category":551,"order":650},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":655,"slug":656,"category":577,"order":650},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":658,"slug":659,"category":569,"order":660},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":662,"slug":663,"category":551,"order":660},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":665,"slug":666,"category":577,"order":660},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":668,"slug":669,"category":569,"order":670},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":672,"slug":673,"category":551,"order":670},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":675,"slug":676,"category":577,"order":670},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":678,"slug":679,"category":569,"order":680},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":682,"slug":683,"category":551,"order":680},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":685,"slug":686,"category":577,"order":680},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":688,"slug":689,"category":569,"order":690},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":692,"slug":693,"category":551,"order":690},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":695,"slug":696,"category":577,"order":690},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":698,"slug":699,"category":569,"order":700},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":702,"slug":703,"category":551,"order":700},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":705,"slug":706,"category":577,"order":700},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":708,"slug":709,"category":569,"order":710},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":712,"slug":713,"category":551,"order":710},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":715,"slug":716,"category":577,"order":710},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":718,"slug":719,"category":569,"order":720},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":722,"slug":723,"category":551,"order":720},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":725,"slug":726,"category":577,"order":720},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":728,"slug":729,"category":569,"order":730},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":732,"slug":733,"category":551,"order":730},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":735,"slug":736,"category":577,"order":730},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":738,"slug":739,"category":569,"order":740},"1965 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巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1099,"slug":1100,"category":551,"order":1097},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1102,"slug":1103,"category":750,"order":1104},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1106,"slug":1107,"category":551,"order":1104},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1109,"slug":1110,"category":750,"order":1111},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1113,"slug":1114,"category":551,"order":1111},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1116,"slug":1117,"category":750,"order":1118},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1120,"slug":1121,"category":551,"order":1118},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1123,"slug":1124,"category":750,"order":1125},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1127,"slug":1128,"category":551,"order":1125},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1130,"slug":1131,"category":750,"order":1132},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1134,"slug":1135,"category":551,"order":1132},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1137,"slug":1138,"category":750,"order":1139},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1141,"slug":1142,"category":551,"order":1139},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1144,"slug":1145,"category":750,"order":1146},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1148,"slug":1149,"category":551,"order":1146},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1151,"slug":1152,"category":750,"order":1153},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1155,"slug":1156,"category":551,"order":1153},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1158,"slug":1159,"category":750,"order":1160},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1162,"slug":1163,"category":551,"order":1160},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1165,"slug":1166,"category":750,"order":1167},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1169,"slug":1170,"category":551,"order":1167},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1172,"slug":1173,"category":750,"order":1174},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1176,"slug":1177,"category":551,"order":1174},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1179,"slug":1180,"category":750,"order":1181},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1183,"slug":1184,"category":551,"order":1181},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1186,"slug":1187,"category":750,"order":1188},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1190,"slug":1191,"category":551,"order":1188},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1193,"slug":1194,"category":750,"order":1195},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1197,"slug":1198,"category":551,"order":1195},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1200,"slug":1201,"category":750,"order":1202},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1204,"slug":1205,"category":551,"order":1202},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1207,"slug":1208,"category":750,"order":1209},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1211,"slug":1212,"category":551,"order":1209},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1214,"slug":1215,"category":750,"order":1216},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1218,"slug":1219,"category":551,"order":1216},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1221,"slug":1222,"category":750,"order":1223},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1225,"slug":1226,"category":551,"order":1223},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1228,"slug":1229,"category":750,"order":1230},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1232,"slug":1233,"category":551,"order":1230},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1235,"slug":1236,"category":750,"order":1237},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1239,"slug":1240,"category":551,"order":1237},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1242,"slug":1243,"category":750,"order":1244},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1246,"slug":1247,"category":551,"order":1244},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1249,"slug":1250,"category":750,"order":1251},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1253,"slug":1254,"category":551,"order":1251},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1256,"slug":1257,"category":750,"order":1258},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1260,"slug":1261,"category":551,"order":1258},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1263,"slug":1264,"category":750,"order":1265},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1267,"slug":1268,"category":551,"order":1265},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1270,"slug":1271,"category":750,"order":1272},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1274,"slug":1275,"category":551,"order":1272},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1277,"slug":1278,"category":750,"order":1279},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1281,"slug":1282,"category":551,"order":1279},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1284,"slug":1285,"category":750,"order":1286},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1288,"slug":1289,"category":551,"order":1286},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1291,"slug":1292,"category":750,"order":1293},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1295,"slug":1296,"category":551,"order":1293},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1298,"slug":1299,"category":750,"order":1300},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1302,"slug":1303,"category":551,"order":1300},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1305,"slug":1306,"category":750,"order":1307},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1309,"slug":1310,"category":551,"order":1307},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1312,"slug":1313,"category":750,"order":1314},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1316,"slug":1317,"category":551,"order":1314},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1319,"slug":1320,"category":750,"order":1321},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1323,"slug":1324,"category":551,"order":1321},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1326,"slug":1327,"category":750,"order":1328},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1330,"slug":1331,"category":551,"order":1328},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1333,"slug":1334,"category":750,"order":1335},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1337,"slug":1338,"category":551,"order":1335},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1340,"slug":1341,"category":750,"order":1342},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":1344,"slug":1345,"category":551,"order":1342},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1347,"slug":1348,"category":750,"order":1349},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":1351,"slug":1352,"category":551,"order":1349},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1354,"slug":1355,"category":750,"order":1356},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":1358,"slug":1359,"category":551,"order":1356},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1361,"slug":1362,"category":750,"order":1363},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":1365,"slug":1366,"category":551,"order":1363},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":1368,"slug":1369,"category":551,"order":1370},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":1372,"slug":1373,"category":551,"order":1374},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":1376,"slug":1377,"category":551,"order":1378},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":1380,"slug":1381,"category":551,"order":1382},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":1384,"slug":1385,"category":551,"order":1386},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":1388,"slug":1389,"category":551,"order":1390},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":1392,"slug":1393,"category":551,"order":1394},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":1396,"slug":1397,"category":551,"order":1398},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":1400,"slug":1401,"category":551,"order":1402},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":1404,"slug":1405,"category":551,"order":1406},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":1408,"slug":1409,"category":551,"order":1410},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":1412,"slug":1413,"category":551,"order":1414},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":1416,"slug":1417,"category":551,"order":1418},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":1420,"slug":1421,"category":551,"order":1422},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 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