[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2167},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":630,"library-sidebar-dao":1633,"library-sidebar-models":1935},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":616,"date":617,"description":618,"extension":619,"meta":620,"navigation":621,"order":622,"path":623,"seo":624,"seoDescription":618,"seoTitle":625,"slug":626,"stem":627,"__hash__":628,"_collection":629},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te.md","巴菲特：2017年查理·罗斯访谈：比尔·盖茨与沃伦·巴菲特",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":611},"minimark",[9,13,18,26,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,71,74,77,80,83,86,89,92,95,98,101,104,107,110,113,116,119,122,125,128,131,134,141,144,147,152,155,158,161,164,167,174,177,180,183,186,191,194,197,200,203,206,209,212,215,218,221,224,227,230,233,236,239,242,245,248,251,254,257,260,263,266,269,272,275,278,281,284,287,290,293,296,299,302,305,308,311,314,317,320,323,326,329,332,335,338,341,344,347,350,353,356,359,362,365,368,371,374,377,380,383,386,389,392,395,398,401,404,407,410,413,416,419,422,425,428,431,434,437,440,443,446,449,452,455,458,461,464,467,470,473,476,479,482,485,488,491,494,497,500,503,506,509,512,515,518,521,524,527,530,533,536,539,542,545,548,551,554,557,560,563,566,569,572,575,578,581,584,587,590,593,596,599,602,605,608],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2017年查理罗斯访谈比尔盖茨与沃伦巴菲特",[14,15,17],"h2",{"id":16},"查理罗斯访谈比尔盖茨与沃伦巴菲特","查理·罗斯访谈：比尔·盖茨与沃伦·巴菲特",[19,20,21,25],"p",{},[22,23,24],"strong",{},"2017 年1 月27"," 日",[19,27,28,29],{},"查理罗斯访谈比尔盖茨与沃伦巴菲特，他们慈善事业\"捐赠誓言\"(theGivingPledge)的共同创始人。 ",[30,31,32],"a",{"href":32,"rel":33},"https:\u002F\u002Fcharlierose.com\u002Fvideos\u002F29774",[34],"nofollow",[19,36,37],{},"罗斯：比尔·盖茨和沃伦·巴菲特来到了节目现场。盖茨是比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会的联席主席，该基金会专注于教育、贫困和全球健康领域的慈善事业。沃伦·巴菲特是伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的董事长兼首席执行官，在过去的五十年里，这家公司堪称最为成功的企业之一。二十五年多来，二人一直保持着深厚的友谊，传为佳话。2010年，他们共同发起了\"捐赠誓言\"倡议，鼓励全球最富有的人将大部分财富捐赠给慈善事业。2006 年，巴菲特将自己的大部分财富捐赠给了盖茨基金会，此后，他向慈善机构捐赠的金额已超过240 亿美元。我很高兴他们再次来到节目中。欢迎二位。需要说明的是，为了完全公开透明，我们刚刚在哥伦比亚大学和一千名学生进行了类似的交流活动。你们二位之前也经常做这样的事。年轻人对你们充满好奇，渴望知道如何向你们学习，这是非常特别的。他们想知道，如果你们重新开始，会怎么做？还想了解你们的价值观。你们经常参与这类交流。",[19,39,40],{},"巴菲特：说到我们的友谊，我们在1991 年7 月5 日相识，一见如故。起初，比尔还有点犹豫，但后来我们就熟络起来了。",[19,42,43],{},"罗斯：不太愿意来吗？",[19,45,46],{},"巴菲特：是的，如果不是他母亲，我们可能至今都互不相识。从那以后，我们相处得一直很愉快。我们在很多方面都有合作，尤其是\"捐赠誓言\"倡议，当然还有其他事务。不得不说，一切都进展得很顺利。",[19,48,49],{},"罗斯：他是你们公司的董事。",[19,51,52],{},"巴菲特：他是伯克希尔公司的董事，我们在很多话题上都聊得很开心。但其中最重要的成果之一就是\"捐赠誓言\"倡议。查理，它的发展远超我的预期。我原本觉得，如果能有30、40 个人参与就很不错了……我想现在大概有 156 人。而且参与的人已经不仅仅局限于美国，这是我最初没想到的。我们的成员对有效的慈善方式有了更多了解，也了解到哪些做法行不通。他们还了解到富裕家庭内部是如何处理财富相关事务的。这比我六、七年前预想的要好太多了。",[19,54,55],{},"罗斯：你们二位都提到过，由于成功的商业发展和科技进步，现在有很多年轻人积累了巨额财富。",[19,57,58],{},"盖茨：没错，这些公司发展得这么好是件大好事。总体来说，这是一群热衷于慈善的人。我直到45 岁才开始进行大规模捐赠，而他们中有些人在30 多岁就已经做出了令人惊叹的慈善之举。",[19,60,61],{},"罗斯：如果用\"犹豫\"这个词的话，你为什么之前没有更早地进行捐赠呢？",[19,63,64],{},"盖茨：我之前没有花时间去研究哪些领域能带来巨大的回报，而且我当时一门心思扑在微软的工作上。直到快40 岁的时候，在妻子梅琳达的鼓励下，我才开始研究慈善相关事宜，并和她深入探讨。我们原本计划在我60岁的时候投身慈善，但在学习过程中，我们决定加快脚步，而且我们找到了很多可以产生重大影响的慈善方向。",[19,66,67],{},"罗斯：你们的原则，或者说使命宗旨是\"所有生命都是平等的\"。",[19,69,70],{},"盖茨：没错。在全球尤其是美国以外的地区，我们的很多慈善工作都致力于拯救生命，让孩子们健康成长。",[19,72,73],{},"罗斯：你为什么决定把钱捐给盖茨基金会，而不是自己创立一个基金会，然后找人来管理，按照自己的想法开展慈善活动呢？",[19,75,76],{},"巴菲特：其实，我和第一任妻子苏珊在50 多年前就创办了一个基金会，我们从20 多岁起就开始讨论这件事。我一直觉得自己会很富有，虽然当时也不确定，但我跟她说，如果我能按照预期的速度积累财富，以后会有一大笔钱。我还说她擅长捐赠，而我擅长赚钱，所以我先赚钱，然后由她来做慈善。她觉得我这个想法一半是逃避责任，一半还算合理。(笑声)所以，就像我刚才说的，我们在50 多年前就创办了基金会，但我当时真的认为以后会有大量财富，而且她特别擅长理解他人的感受，能准确把握人们的需求，还愿意全身心投入其中。她在慈善方面比我更有天赋。你也知道，她在2004 年去世了。所以后来我不得不重新思考自己的慈善计划。2006 年，我决定主要向五个基金会捐赠，其中比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会是最大的受赠方。我在寻找那些慈善目标和我一致的机构。\"所有生命都具有平等价值\"对我来说是最基本的理念。人有时候就是运气好。",[19,78,79],{},"罗斯：而且你知道比尔会把基金会管理得很好。",[19,81,82],{},"巴菲特：那是当然。他投入了自己的资金，这很重要。但更重要的是，他和梅琳达都很年轻，聪明又勤奋。他们在慈善工作上的投入比这个国家大多数人在本职工作上的投入还要多。他们和我有着相同的理念，而且已经证明了自己的能力。各方面都很契合，即便在十年后的今天，这个决定依然十分正确。",[19,84,85],{},"罗斯：比尔提到了梅琳达对他的影响。你也曾跟我说过，关于你已故的妻子苏珊，你说在遇到她之前，你的生活一团糟。",[19,87,88],{},"巴菲特：我觉得这么说都算轻的了。(笑声)毫无疑问，她改变了我的人生。",[19,90,91],{},"罗斯：她是如何改变你的人生的呢？",[19,93,94],{},"巴菲特：我以前是个很片面、不太会调节生活的人，只是碰巧在某一方面比较擅长。是她让我的生活变得完整。这也不是一蹴而就的，她就像拿着一个小洒水壶，慢慢地浇灌，最终看到我有了一些成长。",[19,96,97],{},"罗斯：你们是性格互补，还是其他原因呢？",[19,99,100],{},"巴菲特：不，不是互补。我们的价值观非常相似，在很多重要方面都很合拍，但她比我成熟得多。我们结婚的时候，她19 岁，我21 岁。但在情感上，我当时只有12 岁的心智。是她让我变得成熟。就像我刚才说的，这需要时间，但确实改变了我的人生。如果没有她，我的人生绝不会像现在这样。",[19,102,103],{},"罗斯：那查理·芒格又给你带来了什么呢？",[19,105,106],{},"巴菲特：查理·芒格是和我合作了57、58 年的伙伴，他非常睿智，是个很棒的朋友。这么多年来，我们一直合作。他很有主见，我也不逊色，我们有时也会有分歧，但这么多年来从未争吵过，以后也不会。我可没说谎，这是千真万确的。每当我们意见不同时，他最后总会说：\"沃伦，你最终会同意我的观点，因为你很聪明，而我是对的。\"(笑声)我都不知道该怎么反驳他。",[19,108,109],{},"罗斯：我是对的，你很聪明，你早晚会明白我是对的。",[19,111,112],{},"巴菲特：很多时候他确实是对的。我必须承认这一点。我非常尊重他给我的任何意见。我也尊重比尔的意见。和伙伴一起做事更有意思。显然，夫妻关系是最重要的，但有一个事业伙伴也很好。如果我所有的事情都独自完成，就算能取得双倍的成果，也不会像现在和查理合作这样有趣。",[19,114,115],{},"罗斯：谁会拒绝比尔·盖茨呢？",[19,117,118],{},"盖茨：梅琳达·盖茨会。(笑声)",[19,120,121],{},"巴菲特：我可见过这种场景。(笑声)",[19,123,124],{},"盖茨：当有人能指出我可能行动太快或者过于乐观时，这是好事。比如，有团队来汇报工作，我指出一些我们没做好的地方，可能之后他们就没那么有干劲了。这时候，梅琳达会提醒我注意方式，让我做出调整。我成熟了很多，这都多亏了梅琳达。虽然她还得继续\"改造\"我，但我觉得自己在慢慢进步。在有着共同目标的前提下，彼此的优势互补是非常棒的。在微软创业初期，我和保罗·艾伦就是这样；微软发展壮大的过程中，我和史蒂夫·鲍尔默也是如此。现在，在家庭生活和基金会工作中，梅琳达就是那个和我优势互补的人。",[19,126,127],{},"罗斯：你现在在微软花多少时间？",[19,129,130],{},"盖茨：大概15%的时间。我主要参与研发方面的工作，和大家一起头脑风暴，思考如何利用人工智能，让它更好地理解用户需求，帮助人们更高效地利用时间。现在是软件行业发展的黄金时期，有五家公司处于非常强势的地位，微软在一些很酷的领域处于领先。比如，企业利用客户信息、与客户沟通信息、分析数据，以及在人工智能领域运用数据提高员工工作效率等方面，微软处于领先地位。这是个很棒的细分领域，规模高达数千亿美元，微软在这个领域实力强劲。在未来两年，微软在这方面的创新力度会超过以往任何时候。",[19,132,133],{},"罗斯：你对人工智能充满热情，确实如此。",[19,135,136,137,140],{},"盖茨：没错，从开始从事软件开发起，拥有像人类一样的深度理解能力和智能就是终极梦想。所以，计算机何时能学会玩游戏、阅读、理解语言，这些一直是人们追求的目标。",[22,138,139],{},"近年来，语音和视觉识别等技术取得了巨大进步","。你一直在关注这些，也向观众介绍过相关内容。我得说，即便对于业内人士来说，现在也是一个充满奇迹的时代。",[19,142,143],{},"罗斯：人工智能的潜力体现在哪些方面呢？会改变一切吗？",[19,145,146],{},"盖茨：首先，它会成为有史以来最好的助手。它能梳理你所有的信息，在会议间隙的几分钟内，帮你确定应该关注的内容；当你计划旅行、安排事务时，它能提供帮助，而且会比现在的助手优秀得多。",[19,148,149],{},[22,150,151],{},"最终，在一些机械性的工作上，比如仓库作业、驾驶，人工智能可以取代人类。而在脑力工作方面，它会激发创造力，让你的时间变得更有价值。",[19,153,154],{},"罗斯：你对科技感兴趣吗，沃伦？",[19,156,157],{},"巴菲特：我对科技没有太多天赋，一开始就没什么这方面的倾向，而且我和那些一直研究科技的人比起来，差距太大了，根本追不上。这不是我擅长的领域。",[19,159,160],{},"罗斯：理解企业业务是你投资的主要标准吗？",[19,162,163],{},"巴菲特：是的，我必须理解企业的业务。有很多业务我并不理解，有些可能几乎无法理解，还有些超出了我自信能理解的范围。",[19,165,166],{},"罗斯：但你现在有具备专业知识的投资人帮你。",[19,168,169,170,173],{},"巴菲特：我有两位员工，他们各有所长，但我选择他们并不是因为专长不同，实际上他们的能力有很多重叠之处。",[22,171,172],{},"重要的不是能力圈有多大，而是要清楚能力圈的边界","。如果你只了解国内5%的企业，也能做得很好。(笑声)并且你清楚是哪5%的企业，它们都在你的能力圈内。",[19,175,176],{},"罗斯：2016 年，你进行了一笔巨额收购。2016 年伯克希尔以370 亿美元收购了精密机件公司(Precision)。",[19,178,179],{},"巴菲特：包括承担债务，其中现金约330-340 亿美元，还承担了约40 亿美元的债务。",[19,181,182],{},"罗斯：寻找合适的收购对象是不是越来越难了，因为……",[19,184,185],{},"巴菲特：确实。我们管理着4000 亿美元市值的公司。赚10 亿美元，只占市值的0.25%，而且这还是税后利润，税前利润要超过15 亿美元。所以找到合适的收购对象并不容易。",[19,187,188],{},[22,189,190],{},"如果管理的资金规模小一些，从回报率的角度来看，我可能会做得更好。",[19,192,193],{},"罗斯：那你是怎么找到这些收购对象的呢？",[19,195,196],{},"巴菲特：这很有意思。有时候我正坐着思考事情，就会接到电话。在收购私人企业方面，有时是私人卖家主动联系我，但偶尔我也会主动出击。我们从不进行恶意收购。",[19,198,199],{},"罗斯：但有没有和你关系密切的人帮你留意收购机会呢？",[19,201,202],{},"巴菲特：没什么人。(笑声)查理，自大选以来，我们净买入了120 亿美元的普通股。买哪些股票都是我决定的。和我一起工作的同事，他们可能也会进行一些买卖操作，但这些投资想法要么是我从不同角度思考得出的，要么是基于其他原因。",[19,204,205],{},"罗斯：投资航空公司的股票也是这样吗？",[19,207,208],{},"巴菲特：9 月30 日，我们持有一些航空公司股票的消息被披露了。",[19,210,211],{},"罗斯：你为什么要投资航空公司股票呢？",[19,213,214],{},"巴菲特：这个我就不说了。(笑声)但这在很大程度上是我的决定。",[19,216,217],{},"罗斯：航空有个老笑话，你也知道，怎么才能成为百万富翁呢？先成为亿万富翁，再去收购一家航空公司。",[19,219,220],{},"巴菲特：毫无疑问，航空业让很多人赔得倾家荡产。",[19,222,223],{},"罗斯：确实。但交通运输行业一直备受关注。",[19,225,226],{},"巴菲特：没错，但铁路运输和航空运输是两回事。铁路和航空没有关联。它们是不同类型的业务。铁路轨道无法移动，飞机却可以灵活调配。航空业和铁路运输业，就像好莱坞塑造的那样，都有一种浪漫色彩。",[19,228,229],{},"实际上，进入航空业风险很大，在过去25 年里，有超过100 家航空公司破产。这是个不同寻常的行业。",[19,231,232],{},"罗斯：认识比尔对你理解世界的运行方式有什么改变、影响或者启发吗？",[19,234,235],{},"巴菲特：我从他身上学到了很多。我喜欢从所有朋友身上学习，比尔是一个特别好的学习对象。查理，这就是交朋友的乐趣所在。我觉得如果不能从朋友身上学到东西，我很难和他成为朋友。他们可能会觉得我很无趣，心里想：这家伙怎么老谈股票？(笑声)",[19,237,238],{},"罗斯：比尔，和沃伦交往，你从他身上学到了什么呢？",[19,240,241],{},"盖茨：学到了太多。在我认识他之前，我读过他为《财富》杂志写的一篇文章，里面提到给孩子留下巨额财富不一定是个好主意。这对我影响很大。我记得当时读完就深信这是对的，然后就开始思考如何把财富捐赠出去。我还记得沃伦给我看他的日程表。你知道，我以前把每分钟都安排得满满当当，还觉得只有这样才能把事情做好。但沃伦却很不一样，他会特意留出一些空白的日子。这可是个\"高科技\"做法，小心点，你可能理解不了。",[19,243,244],{},"罗斯：比如四月份的某一周，一周里只有三项安排。",[19,246,247],{},"巴菲特：到四月份可能会有四项。(笑声)",[19,249,250],{},"罗斯：这教会了你什么呢？是不是不要把自己的日程安排得太满，要给自己留出阅读、思考的时间，还有…… 盖茨：没错。要掌控自己的时间。对于普通CEO 来说，总有各种事务找上门，让人觉得必须去会见各种人，但其实静下心来思考可能更为重要。把日程表排得满满当当，并不能说明你对待工作认真负责。",[19,252,253],{},"巴菲特：而且人们都想占用你的时间。时间是唯一买不来的东西。基本上，我能买到任何我想要的东西，但就是买不到时间。我可得好好珍惜。时间是没办法再多买的。",[19,255,256],{},"罗斯：住在奥马哈让你更容易做到这点吗？",[19,258,259],{},"巴菲特：这让我轻松多了。54 年来，我上下班单程只需要5 分钟。想象一下，如果单程需要半小时，那我可能会多学会很多歌曲，但也仅此而已了。如果每天上下班路上的时间相差一小时，这占了一个人每周工作时间的2.5%。算下来，40 年就相当于一年的时间。",[19,261,262],{},"罗斯：你们在政治观点上一致吗？",[19,264,265],{},"盖茨：几乎在所有事情上都一致。我们都认为要推动经济增长，提高产出，并且要公平分配成果。在这个基本框架上，我们的看法非常相似。",[19,267,268],{},"罗斯：你们俩都认为美国能实现4%的经济增长率吗？",[19,270,271],{},"巴菲特：那可太高了。查理，如果人口增长率略低于1%(这很有可能)，2%的经济增长率是可行的。一代人的时间，也就是25 年(现在人们生孩子的时间稍微晚一些)，人均实际国内生产总值将增加1.9 万美元。对于一个四口之家来说，一代人的时间里，家庭实际GDP 会增加7.6 万美元。也就是说，我们的经济会持续增长，就像会下金蛋的鹅一样，源源不断地创造财富。我们的经济体系很棒。",[19,273,274],{},"罗斯：不过，有些因素可能会阻碍经济增长。",[19,276,277],{},"巴菲特：你是说2%的增长率吗？我觉得我们能达到。2%的增长率也能创造奇迹。",[19,279,280],{},"罗斯：没错，但3%的增长率也有可能实现，不是吗？",[19,282,283],{},"巴菲特：有可能，但那就太棒了。但2%的增长率意味着人均增加1.9 万美元，这比很多国家的人均水平都",[19,285,286],{},"高。问题是我们要怎么利用这些增长的财富。",[19,288,289],{},"罗斯：你如何看待中国的未来？",[19,291,292],{},"盖茨：他们在一些方面做得非常出色。自1990 年以来，他们以自己独特的市场方式在提高收入、消除贫困和改善健康方面创造了令人难以置信的奇迹。所以，中国成为了世界第二大经济体。他们认真对待贸易，重视清洁能源。中国至关重要。中美关系是世界上最重要的双边关系。",[19,294,295],{},"罗斯：显然，因为两国是世界上最大的两个经济体。",[19,297,298],{},"盖茨：没错，而且中国在崛起……我们美国也很强，并且会一直保持强大。",[19,300,301],{},"罗斯：什么会让我们不再强大呢？",[19,303,304],{},"盖茨：几十年来，我们积累了很多优势，比如我们的科研方式、大学教育体系，以及人们敢于冒险的精神，这使得我们的科技公司和生物科技公司依然强大。但教育体系是我们需要重新审视的地方，它是造成社会不平等的一个重要因素。实际上，如果能接受优质教育，人们往往能取得不错的成就。",[19,306,307],{},"罗斯：经验告诉你们，改善美国教育体系比你们想象的要难得多。",[19,309,310],{},"盖茨：没错，改善美国教育体系确实困难重重。虽然辍学率有所下降，这是个好消息，但在过去十年里，整体的阅读成绩、数学成绩以及教育不平等问题并没有得到明显改善。我们基金会的目标之一，就是与合作伙伴共同努力改变这种状况。到目前为止，这是一项极具挑战性的任务，但我们依然认为它至关重要。从一些个别学校的情况来看，还是有很多积极的成果，所以我们相信这个目标是可以实现的。",[19,312,313],{},"罗斯：最近关于移民的讨论很多，我想稍微聊一下这个话题。如今，是不是仍然存在这样的情况：一些海外的优秀人才来美国接受教育，之后却回到印度、中国或其他国家，而不是留在美国？",[19,315,316],{},"盖茨：很多人还是留了下来。到目前为止，美国最重要的\"进口\"资源就是人才。世界上几乎每个国家中，那些最勤奋、最优秀、最聪明的人都想来美国，这对我们非常有利。看看大学各院系，还有医生、工程师、创业人士和创造就业机会的人，就知道人才对美国的强大起到了多大作用。虽然我们并非总是能让人才引进工作一帆风顺，但整体效果非常好。所以，尽管有人才回流的情况，但从净增量来看，美国依然是人才输入的最大受益者。",[19,318,319],{},"罗斯：以前有人说过，我想是汤姆·弗里德曼最先提出的，我们应该给每一张文凭都附上一张绿卡。",[19,321,322],{},"盖茨：我认同这个观点。我来自科技行业，在这个行业，围绕一个工程师可以创造多个就业岗位，而不是把机会让给美国以外的国家，这可能让我有这样的偏向。但我确实认为把人才留在国内是件好事。",[19,324,325],{},"罗斯：给我们讲个故事吧，你之前给我讲过一个，我觉得很有意思。你认为美国历史上，仅次于《独立宣",[19,327,328],{},"言》，或者说和《美国宪法》(也许二者都是)同样重要的文件，是两位移民写的一封信。",[19,330,331],{},"巴菲特：是两位犹太移民写的信。在我讲出具体内容之前，这听起来可能没什么特别的。1939 年8 月，就在德国入侵波兰前夕，利奥·西拉德，这个名字可能不太为人熟知，他出生于匈牙利，曾在德国与阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦共事。我记得1933 年，他们两人都离开了德国，来到了美国，并成为美国公民。他们共同给罗斯福总统写了一封信，西拉德拉着爱因斯坦签名，因为爱因斯坦的名字更有分量。这封信在网上就能看到，篇幅还不到一页。",[19,333,334],{},"信的大致内容是，德国可能正在研制原子弹，而且有可能成功，但也不确定。所以美国最好也开始进行相关研究。之后，曼哈顿计划应运而生。很难想象，如果希特勒没有那么极端的反犹主义(毕竟有很多伟大的犹太科学家)，以及如果这两位没有选择移民美国，二战的结果会是怎样。美国接纳了他们，而他们可能拯救了这个国家，真的有可能。当时德国向英国发射了很多V1、V2 导弹，但从他们的角度来看，这些导弹的弹头并不理想。如果我们的原子弹研制工作再晚三年开始，谁也不知道会发生什么。他们都是了不起的人，而且都是移民。",[19,336,337],{},"罗斯：大概一个月前，你给我写了张便条，你说你并不担心美国经济。你担心的是在核武器部署方面，我们可能会犯错，或者有些坏人会购买或窃取核武器。如一些悲惨的意外，或者计算机故障。",[19,339,340],{},"巴菲特：大规模杀伤性武器确实存在。虽然每天发生这种事的概率极小，但世界上确实有人对我们心怀恶",[19,342,343],{},"意，有人想要杀死数百万美国人。世界上有一些精神病患者、宗教狂热分子和自大狂，一旦他们处于某种特殊位置，掌握了相关知识和能力，就会利用这些武器实施恶行。爱因斯坦在原子弹问世后不久曾说过，我不知道第三次世界大战会用什么武器，但第四次世界大战人们将只能用棍棒和石头作战。这种可能性是存在的。",[19,345,346],{},"无论哪位美国总统，他最重要的职责就是尽可能保护我们免受大规模杀伤性武器的威胁。虽然个人也可能持有这类武器，但相对而言不用太担心个人的意图，更需要警惕的是一些组织，甚至是个别国家。这是美国未来面临的最大隐患。经济问题我们可以解决，但这才是首要问题。",[19,348,349],{},"罗斯：你同意这种说法吗？",[19,351,352],{},"盖茨：我同意，而且威胁不止来自核武器。生物恐怖主义也很可怕。举个极端的例子，有人可能会重新合成天花病毒并使其传播，这不仅会导致数百万人死亡，甚至可能造成数十亿人丧生。",[19,354,355],{},"巴菲特：我记得在过去两年里，《纽约时报》上有一篇评论文章。因为我不太懂这方面的内容，所以还专门问了比尔，他说文章讲得有道理。文章讨论的是合成天花病毒的可行性。世界上肯定有一些人，甚至可能有一些组织，热衷于制造天花疫情。",[19,357,358],{},"罗斯：那怎么防止这种情况发生呢？",[19,360,361],{},"盖茨：首先要有监测机制，以便尽早发现病毒。同时，要有医疗手段来研发疫苗，保护人们。科学在研发防御手段的同时，也在一定程度上让攻击变得更容易。所以，如果我们保持警惕，还是可以采取很多措施来降低风险的，就像减少裂变材料的获取能有效降低核武器威胁一样。",[19,363,364],{},"罗斯：有人认为，下一场战争不会是核战争，甚至也不是生物恐怖袭击，而是网络战争。",[19,366,367],{},"盖茨：这是第三个潜在威胁领域。对我个人而言，这三种威胁已经够让人担忧的了。现代社会依赖电力、通信和信息流，如果这些在较长一段时间内遭到破坏，很多系统都会受到影响，比如医院的运营、食品的运输、航空公司的决策，还有银行账户，人们可能都不知道自己的账户情况了。所以，现在政府和企业的很多专家都在思考如何降低这种风险，如何做好数据备份和冗余设计，让系统更加完善。",[19,369,370],{},"罗斯：美国和中国、墨西哥等国打贸易战，这可行吗？会带来什么后果？",[19,372,373],{},"巴菲特：这不是个好主意。贸易能带来诸多益处。贸易的问题在于，其带来的好处是分散且不明显的。比",[19,375,376],{},"如，你去买一双鞋或一些内衣，不会看到标签上写着\"因为有人进行了贸易，你节省了12%的开支\"。美国有3.2亿人在购物，就像\"香蕉效应\"一样，大家都能买到比以往更便宜的商品。但是，贸易也有负面影响，比如有人在一个岗位上工作了25 年，却因为贸易结构调整而失业，而且此时再对他们进行再培训已经来不及了，这对他们来说是巨大的灾难。我们要做的是想办法在保留贸易带来的社会效益的同时，照顾好那些在贸易发展过程中受到伤害的人。这种情况肯定会发生，我们不能自欺欺人。就像伯克希尔最初的纺织业务，我们一半的工人只会说葡萄牙语，他们在炎热、嘈杂的环境中操作织布机，一干就是20 到25 年。当纺织业转移到其他地方后，他们的经济生活就毁了。这就是贸易的一部分。当人们购买我们生产的纺织品，比如手帕或其他东西时，他们可能确实能以更低的价格买到。但作为一个社会，我们必须让贸易惠及所有人，包括我们自己和其他国家的人。同时，贸易确实会严重伤害到一部分人，而我们有资源，就应该照顾好这些人。",[19,378,379],{},"罗斯：照顾他们具体是指什么呢？",[19,381,382],{},"巴菲特：这意味着，在可行的情况下，要为他们提供再培训等帮助；但如果不可行，比如一个55 岁只会说葡萄牙语、一辈子都在操作织布机的人在新贝德福德失业了，我们就得确保他能有一份维持生计的收入。作为一个社会，我们有能力做到这一点。我们不能因为个别情况就否定贸易给大家带来的好处，但也不能因为整体受益就忽视那些受到伤害的人。我们有能力照顾好这些人，也应该这么做，这样才能制定出合理的贸易政策。",[19,384,385],{},"罗斯：比尔，你有没有意识到唐纳德·特朗普利用了民众对经济状况的不安来获取政治支持？",[19,387,388],{},"盖茨：我对政治情绪不太了解，所以在察觉这些趋势方面，我并不比其他人更敏锐。",[19,390,391],{},"罗斯：英国脱欧和民粹主义崛起，利用了民众的这种情绪。",[19,393,394],{},"盖茨：英国脱欧公投的结果也让我很惊讶。毫无疑问，年轻人和城市居民在社会观念上与其他人存在差异，他们从新技术和新事物中受益相对更多。这种差异导致的政治结果给我们敲响了警钟，让我们思考在经济和社会问题方面，我们能否通过改善医疗、改进教育体系，改变人们的负面看法，让他们对未来更有信心。对我来说，最让我惊讶的不是人们的投票结果，因为我从不认为自己在这方面是专家，而是这个普遍的问题：人们觉得自己的孩子不会比自己过得更好。但我相信他们的孩子会生活得更好，毕竟在健康改善和新产品方面都有进步。",[19,396,397],{},"罗斯：还有科技给人们带来的便利等等。",[19,399,400],{},"盖茨：没错。这令人担忧，因为如果人们看不到未来会变得更好，就不太愿意加大对科研的投入，也不会积极推动优质教育的普及。这会导致一种消极情绪，人们会失去方向，不再相信有些事情是可行的，也不会想着继续推进这些事情。",[19,402,403],{},"罗斯：但我想问的是，美国会衰落吗？看看现在，我们有最强大的军事力量、最发达的经济、最好的大学、最优秀的人才，还有最具创新和创造力的精神，我们会失去这些优势吗？",[19,405,406],{},"巴菲特：我觉得不会。失去这些优势的可能性非常小……",[19,408,409],{},"罗斯：这就是你说的\"独特优势\"吗？",[19,411,412],{},"巴菲特：我们有独特优势，而且现在依然具备。如果世界其他国家能借鉴我们的优势，这不是一场零和博",[19,414,415],{},"弈，那当然很好，但这也不会削弱我们的优势。总体来看，十年、二十年、三十年后，我们的社会会比现在富裕得多。从整体上看，我们的孩子会生活得更好。真正的问题是，这种发展是否会继续让很多人掉队？专业化的市场体系会让一部分人落后。如果以某种标准衡量，有人比平均水平低10%，那么在当今世界，他们的机会与三四十年前相比并没有改善。以《福布斯》400 富豪榜为例，1982 年排名第一的是Daniel Keith Ludwig，可能很多人都没听说过他，当时他身家20 亿美元(一位极为低调神秘的富豪，拥有一家造船厂，在二战期间为美国生产油轮，他也被认为是世界上第一个造出超级油轮的人。他拥有350 万英亩土地，买卖银行像玩卡片一样)。",[19,417,418],{},"如今，首富的身家是那时的30 到40 倍。这种高度专业化的经济与200 年前的农业经济不同，会让越来越多处于顶层的人赚得盆满钵满。如果没有相应的政策，对于那些没有特殊市场技能的人来说，情况不会有太大改善。普通民众，尤其是那些市场才能略低于平均水平的人，如果没有政策扶持，很难获得良好的发展。而处于顶层的人会越来越富。",[19,420,421],{},"罗斯：需要政府出台政策吗？",[19,423,424],{},"巴菲特：必须依靠政府。政府的角色就像是交通警察，市场体系也是如此。市场体系调配资源和人才，在这方面它做得很好，但同时也让财富向顶层集中。政府推出了社会保障政策，对财富进行再分配，避免财富完全由市场体系决定流向。但我并不想抑制市场体系的生产活力，我们希望创造更多的财富。然而，如果越来越多的人相对落后，这不是一个好现象。我们有能力做得更好。",[19,426,427],{},"罗斯：我相信你们都看到了，上周有份报告指出，八位亿万富翁的财富总和超过了全球一半人的财富。",[19,429,430],{},"巴菲特：在美国，如果看《福布斯》400 富豪榜，1982 年这400 人的总财富是930 亿美元，现在达到了2.4万亿美元，是35 年前的25 倍。当然，这400 人不完全相同。相信我，对于那些每周工作40 小时，努力赚钱养活几个孩子，却发现他们完全没有从经济发展中受益。",[19,432,433],{},"市场体系让处于顶层的人获得越来越多的财富。比如说，你是一名中量级拳击手。在1930 年代，你可能连麦迪逊广场花园拳击赛的垫场赛都上不了，收入也很有限。但后来有了电视、有线电视和付费观看模式，顶级拳击手能赚到数千万美元。所以，处于顶层的人赚得很多。但如果你只是国内排名第45 位的中量级拳击手，你的情况和30 年代可能没什么区别。",[19,435,436],{},"贫富差距越来越大。如果你是弗兰克·辛纳屈，有了电视之后，你的收入比在纽约小剧场演出时要高得多。这种差距在各个领域都在扩大。如果你有一个好的商业创意，就能获得资金支持，仅凭这个创意就能身家数十亿。",[19,438,439],{},"但这也越来越难了。回到1800 年，如果一个人身体还算强壮，又愿意努力工作，那么他在农场的收入能达到最优秀的人的90%。而现在这种差距还在不断扩大，市场体系会加剧这种趋势，但政府的作用是……",[19,441,442],{},"罗斯：如果可以的话，你会做出哪些改变呢？",[19,444,445],{},"巴菲特：我会大力改革劳动所得税抵免政策。我能有今天的成就，绝不仅仅是因为我个人。美国有3.2 亿人，很多人都为国家做出了贡献。我只是碰巧在这个时代、这个地方获得了巨大的利益。有人受益，也有人没有。市场体系奖励那些让数百万人生活变得更好的人，这没有错，他们理应得到丰厚的回报。但我们也必须照顾好那些无法适应市场体系的人。",[19,447,448],{},"如果这个国家是按照体育能力来分配财富，就算我每天学习八小时，进入拳击场后，十秒钟内我还是会被打倒在地。市场体系奖励的才能很重要，因为这些才能为我们带来了更多国家需要的商品和服务，极大地改善了我们的生活，但也让一些人落后了，而且这个问题不是仅靠教育就能解决的。我们希望每个人都能……",[19,450,451],{},"罗斯：这是政府的责任吗？",[19,453,454],{},"巴菲特：当然是。",[19,456,457],{},"盖茨：政府还需要确保企业保持良好的运营状态，让企业有动力正确行事。找到这个平衡点，应该是政治对话的核心。",[19,459,460],{},"巴菲特：假设世界上有一座最公平的岛屿，上面住着两个人，他们要商量如何分配岛上唯一的一棵棕榈树，但这并不会有什么结果。(笑声)",[19,462,463],{},"罗斯：除了国家安全问题，未来我们还应该担心什么呢？我们之前讨论过，有人认为人工智能存在风险，你也谈过这个问题，还有基因编辑这类技术，它们既可能给我们带来好处，但也可能让世界变得很可怕。你怎么看待这些问题？",[19,465,466],{},"盖茨：基因编辑就是一个典型例子。它有望帮助治疗疾病、提高农作物产量，这是在改写生命的\"软件\"，可以说是最顶级的\"软件\"工程。但同时，如何正确使用这项技术也是个难题。比如说，如果你能确保自己的孩子身材苗条、长相出众或者具备某些其他特质，这种对技术的使用合适吗？所以社会必须……",[19,468,469],{},"罗斯：你怎么回答这个问题呢？",[19,471,472],{},"巴菲特：我自愿报名参加这个的测试版体验。(笑声)",[19,474,475],{},"罗斯：我是认真的，比尔，你怎么看待这个问题呢？这涉及到自由和安全之间的平衡问题。就像在获取恐怖分子手机信息这件事上，人们会思考政府是否有权查看手机内容，因为手机里可能藏有未来恐怖袭击的线索。",[19,477,478],{},"盖茨：没错，这又是一个争议点。我们要确保政府在金融交易、通信等方面不会完全一无所知，但同时也要相信政府在获取和使用这些信息时会遵循恰当的政策。关于该问题存在很大争议，极端的观点有两种，一些人认为政府根本不应获取这些信息，另一些人则觉得政府应该全面监控。但我认为，或许存在一种两全其美的办法。",[19,480,481],{},"罗斯：前提是要有恰当的程序。",[19,483,484],{},"盖茨：我们已经有相关程序了。但有人觉得，即便有程序还是存在一些问题。所以，有人倾向于\"别让政府查看信息\"的观点。这又是一个政治问题，比如基因编辑的尺度如何把握，政府在其中的权限有多大。我们需要能广泛吸纳各方意见的政治家。管理医疗保健系统时，当出现超级昂贵的治疗方案，就要思考医疗保健是否应该占用过多的经济资源，从而影响对教育和社会服务等领域的投入，这又将是一个在政治舞台上备受争议的重大问题。",[19,486,487],{},"罗斯：在你看来，哪个国家的医疗保健体系做得比较好？",[19,489,490],{},"盖茨：欧洲国家。英国在医疗保健方面的支出占国内生产总值的比例大约只有美国的一半。虽然英国的医疗体系存在排队等待时间长等问题，但这其中的差距大得难以想象。两者相差近9%的国内生产总值。这意味着在美国，每天每11 个工作的人里，就有1 个人从事额外的医疗保健相关工作。我不是说我们应该全盘照搬英国的单一支付者体系，还有其他很好的体系并非单一支付者模式，像德国、瑞士、法国，他们的医疗体系就运作得很好。",[19,492,493],{},"在医疗保健服务的可及性方面，美国与其他富裕国家相比表现很差，这是为数不多的美国明显落后的领域。在教育方面，很多富裕国家也做得不好，美国在顶尖大学教育方面确实领先世界，但整体教育水平处于中等位置。不过在医疗保健方面，美国的表现格外糟糕。",[19,495,496],{},"罗斯：在医疗保健和教育方面，美国不如其他工业化国家吗？",[19,498,499],{},"盖茨：大多数富裕国家在教育方面表现都不太好，美国在顶尖大学教育方面优势明显，但从整体教育水平来看，美国处于中等水平。而在医疗保健服务的可及性上，我们必须承认美国比其他富裕国家差很多。",[19,501,502],{},"罗斯：全球变暖是个迫在眉睫的问题吗？",[19,504,505],{},"盖茨：是的。幸运的是，它不会在短时间内造成毁灭性影响。真正严重的负面影响将在30 到70 年内显现，不过现在它已经增加了干旱和风暴发生的概率，我们也切实看到了这些变化。",[19,507,508],{},"罗斯：你能确定这之间有直接的因果关系吗？",[19,510,511],{},"盖茨：能确定，全球变暖的影响已经存在。当然，太平洋涛动和正常的天气变化也会产生影响。所以，很难精确区分哪些变化是由全球变暖导致的，哪些是其他因素造成的，但全球变暖的影响是确凿无疑的。全球平均气温在上升，中东和非洲部分地区已经出现了干旱加剧的情况。随着时间推移，情况会变得更糟。改变能源体系需要很长时间进行技术研发和推广应用，所以我认为这是当前最紧迫的问题之一。",[19,513,514],{},"罗斯：那么，当务之急是寻找替代能源吗？",[19,516,517],{},"盖茨：要找到具备可靠、清洁、低成本这三个理想特质的能源，实现的途径有很多。所以我们要鼓励众多创新者尝试不同的方法。如果能把太阳能直接转化为汽油，那将是一种可行的办法，因为汽油便于储存和运输。还有一种方法是提升核能的安全性，降低成本，使其成为能源体系的重要组成部分。政府和私营部门都应该为各种创新想法提供资金支持。",[19,519,520],{},"罗斯：你现在的生活在智力层面上，比你经营微软的时候更具挑战性吗？",[19,522,523],{},"盖茨：这很难比较。在这两个阶段我都在快速学习新知识。我很享受现在能结识优秀的人，见证成功，也看到失败。在我人生的这个阶段，我所处的位置再好不过了，我非常满足。",[19,525,526],{},"罗斯：是因为你对微软还有影响力吗？我是说，不仅仅是在软件领域。",[19,528,529],{},"盖茨：我喜欢去微软分享我的想法。这样我能了解行业最新动态。我们利用一些数字技术，为全球贫困人口提供低成本的金融服务，或者用于分析医疗数据。了解数字技术的最新进展有助于我在基金会的工作。",[19,531,532],{},"罗斯：你说过类似的话，如今普通人的生活比约翰·D·洛克菲勒在世时过得还要好。他可是当时世界上最富有的人。生活得更好。",[19,534,535],{},"巴菲特：没错，生活得更好。从娱乐选择和出行方式等方面就能看出来。这些在当时是花钱也买不来的。短短一生，变化如此巨大，令人惊叹。",[19,537,538],{},"罗斯：除了家庭，什么能给你带来最大的满足感？",[19,540,541],{},"巴菲特：最大的满足感就是保持健康。当你到了86 岁，看待这个问题的角度会有所不同。(笑声)",[19,543,544],{},"罗斯：你身体还不错吧？",[19,546,547],{},"巴菲特：哦，挺好的。我享受每一天。说实话，我喜欢经营伯克希尔。这就像是我50 多年来的\"画作\"。我可以按自己的想法去\"创作\"。我不用理会华尔街对下一季度业绩的期望。我掌握着画笔，面前是一块无限大的画布。",[19,549,550],{},"这是一场很棒的\"游戏\"，而且我每天都能和自己喜欢的人一起参与其中。我不用和那些让我反感的人打交道。如果我从政的话，就得对着很多我想揍的人微笑。我现在的状态很好，我很珍惜。(笑声) 罗斯：我经常讲这个故事，Brook Ashton 曾对我说，以前我总是太在意别人对我的看法，后来我只在乎自己对别人的看法。(笑声)我只想和自己喜欢的人交往。",[19,552,553],{},"巴菲特：没错，在我的商业领域，我很幸运能这样。商业可比慈善简单多了。慈善或许更为重要，但在商业中，你可以选择轻松的项目，和自己喜欢的人合作。在一定程度上，我可以打造一个自己喜欢的商业世界。",[19,555,556],{},"罗斯：你的意思是，如果有人来找你，希望你收购他们的公司，而且你觉得这是个……",[19,558,559],{},"巴菲特：一只会下金蛋的鹅，但它的主人我不喜欢。那我会拒绝。(笑声)",[19,561,562],{},"罗斯：你会拒绝。即便你知道这笔交易能……",[19,564,565],{},"巴菲特：查理，无论在什么情况下，为了钱而结婚可能都不是个好主意。但如果你已经很有钱了，这么做就更没意义了。(笑声)",[19,567,568],{},"罗斯：但是衡量满足感的标准是什么呢？",[19,570,571],{},"巴菲特：就是把伯克希尔经营好，随着公司规模越来越大，经营的难度也在增加，但好在我能和很多人一起做有意思的事。就像Jenny McCarthy 评价橄榄球教练时说的，这份工作有一定难度，所以很有趣，但实际上也没那么难。(笑声)",[19,573,574],{},"罗斯：麦卡锡这么说过？",[19,576,577],{},"巴菲特：是的。不过，他有时候说话挺让人恼火的。",[19,579,580],{},"罗斯：什么能给你带来最大的满足感呢，比尔？",[19,582,583],{},"盖茨：学习新事物和取得突破。除了家庭带来的幸福，这是最让我开心的事了。偶尔，当我发现一些真正有意义的事情，并能把这些见解分享给别人时，我觉得非常满足。",[19,585,586],{},"比如，当我和梅琳达坐下来写年度公开信时，我会想，我有机会了解很多事情，那么我能分享哪些简洁且对大家有帮助的内容呢？这很有趣，也很有挑战性，不是每次都能做到。但每当我学到新东西，或者发现一些事情比我想象的更简单，并能分享给别人时，我就会感到极大的满足。",[19,588,589],{},"巴菲特：查理，我还想说一点。我现在86 岁了，见过很多上了年纪的人。根据我的经验，我从未见过一个",[19,591,592],{},"70 岁(或者随便说个年纪)的人，对自己孩子感到满意，却对自己的人生感到不满。",[19,594,595],{},"罗斯：你从没见过对自己孩子感到满意，但对自己人生感到不满的人吗？",[19,597,598],{},"巴菲特：是的，我见过很多有钱人，他们的家庭并不幸福。或者孩子对他们不满意，不管是哪种情况，他们都没能做好人生中最重要的教育工作，也没能处理好亲子关系。有时候这是一些外部因素导致的，但我真的从未遇到过，无论经济状况如何，那些爱自己的孩子，并且孩子发展得很好的人，会觉得自己的人生很失败。如果他们爱自己的孩子，他们会为自己把孩子养育成人而感到欣慰。",[19,600,601],{},"罗斯：如果他们的孩子发展得不错取得成就，为未来做好了准备，他们就会觉得很满足。",[19,603,604],{},"巴菲特：我认识一个非常富有的人，他把大量的钱都记在孩子名下，但又不想让孩子掌控这些钱。每年他都会和孩子们吃一顿饭，试图让他们在所得税申报表上空白签字。想象一下，他有四个孩子，他却对他们没有足够的信任。这太荒唐了。吃饭的时候，他会讨好孩子们，孩子们也清楚他的目的，每年都是如此。然后他还会贿赂孩子们在空白申报表上签字，这样他就能去报税，而孩子们都不知道自己到底有多少钱。我见过很多成功人士，当然也见过很多失败的人。有些商业上成功的人，在家庭方面却很失败，我觉得他们对自己的人生不会太满意。",[19,606,607],{},"罗斯：感谢你们来到节目，很高兴见到你们。比尔，非常感谢你。感谢比尔·盖茨和沃伦·巴菲特花一小时参与节目。感谢大家观看。我想提一下，1 月30 日HBO 会播出一部名为《成为沃伦·巴菲特》的纪录片，在影片中，你能看到一个人的成长历程，以及他在家庭陪伴下，86 年人生所积累的经验和教训。我们下期节目再见。",[609,610],"hr",{},{"title":612,"searchDepth":613,"depth":613,"links":614},"",2,[615],{"id":16,"depth":613,"text":17},"访谈与文章",null,"查理·罗斯访谈比尔·盖茨与巴菲特，探讨","md",{},true,124,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te",{"title":5,"description":618},"巴菲特：2017年查理·罗斯访谈：比尔·盖茨与沃伦·巴菲特｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te","SZLI2JXTMRapOPrOR4gRAaRZvfpMmdF15vJ46xIyQFE","buffett",[631,636,639,643,646,649,652,656,659,662,666,669,672,676,679,682,686,689,692,696,699,702,706,709,712,716,719,722,726,729,732,736,739,742,746,749,752,756,759,762,766,769,772,776,779,782,786,789,792,796,799,802,806,809,812,817,820,823,827,830,833,837,840,843,847,850,853,857,860,863,867,870,873,877,880,883,887,890,893,897,900,903,907,910,913,917,920,923,927,930,933,937,940,943,947,950,953,957,960,963,967,970,974,977,981,984,988,991,995,998,1002,1005,1009,1012,1016,1019,1023,1026,1030,1033,1037,1040,1044,1047,1051,1054,1058,1061,1065,1068,1072,1075,1079,1082,1086,1089,1093,1096,1100,1103,1107,1110,1114,1117,1121,1124,1128,1131,1135,1138,1142,1145,1149,1152,1156,1159,1163,1166,1170,1173,1177,1180,1184,1187,1191,1194,1198,1201,1205,1208,1212,1215,1219,1222,1226,1229,1233,1236,1240,1243,1247,1250,1254,1257,1261,1264,1268,1271,1275,1278,1282,1285,1289,1292,1296,1299,1303,1306,1310,1313,1317,1320,1324,1327,1331,1334,1338,1341,1345,1348,1352,1355,1359,1362,1366,1369,1373,1376,1380,1383,1387,1390,1394,1397,1401,1404,1408,1411,1415,1418,1422,1425,1429,1432,1436,1440,1444,1448,1452,1456,1460,1464,1468,1472,1476,1480,1484,1488,1492,1496,1500,1504,1508,1512,1516,1520,1524,1525,1529,1533,1537,1541,1545,1549,1553,1557,1561,1565,1569,1573,1577,1581,1585,1589,1593,1597,1601,1605,1609,1613,1617,1621,1625,1629],{"title":632,"slug":633,"category":634,"order":635},"1956 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":982,"slug":983,"category":616,"order":980},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":985,"slug":986,"category":634,"order":987},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":989,"slug":990,"category":616,"order":987},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":992,"slug":993,"category":634,"order":994},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":996,"slug":997,"category":616,"order":994},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":999,"slug":1000,"category":634,"order":1001},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1003,"slug":1004,"category":616,"order":1001},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1006,"slug":1007,"category":815,"order":1008},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1010,"slug":1011,"category":616,"order":1008},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1013,"slug":1014,"category":634,"order":1015},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1017,"slug":1018,"category":616,"order":1015},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1020,"slug":1021,"category":815,"order":1022},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1024,"slug":1025,"category":616,"order":1022},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1027,"slug":1028,"category":815,"order":1029},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1031,"slug":1032,"category":616,"order":1029},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1034,"slug":1035,"category":815,"order":1036},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1038,"slug":1039,"category":616,"order":1036},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1041,"slug":1042,"category":815,"order":1043},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1045,"slug":1046,"category":616,"order":1043},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1048,"slug":1049,"category":815,"order":1050},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1052,"slug":1053,"category":616,"order":1050},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1055,"slug":1056,"category":815,"order":1057},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1059,"slug":1060,"category":616,"order":1057},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1062,"slug":1063,"category":815,"order":1064},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1066,"slug":1067,"category":616,"order":1064},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1069,"slug":1070,"category":815,"order":1071},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1073,"slug":1074,"category":616,"order":1071},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1076,"slug":1077,"category":815,"order":1078},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1080,"slug":1081,"category":616,"order":1078},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1083,"slug":1084,"category":815,"order":1085},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1087,"slug":1088,"category":616,"order":1085},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1090,"slug":1091,"category":815,"order":1092},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1094,"slug":1095,"category":616,"order":1092},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1097,"slug":1098,"category":815,"order":1099},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1101,"slug":1102,"category":616,"order":1099},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1104,"slug":1105,"category":815,"order":1106},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1108,"slug":1109,"category":616,"order":1106},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1111,"slug":1112,"category":815,"order":1113},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1115,"slug":1116,"category":616,"order":1113},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1118,"slug":1119,"category":815,"order":1120},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1122,"slug":1123,"category":616,"order":1120},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1125,"slug":1126,"category":815,"order":1127},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1129,"slug":1130,"category":616,"order":1127},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1132,"slug":1133,"category":815,"order":1134},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1136,"slug":1137,"category":616,"order":1134},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1139,"slug":1140,"category":815,"order":1141},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1143,"slug":1144,"category":616,"order":1141},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1146,"slug":1147,"category":815,"order":1148},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1150,"slug":1151,"category":616,"order":1148},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1153,"slug":1154,"category":815,"order":1155},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1157,"slug":1158,"category":616,"order":1155},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1160,"slug":1161,"category":815,"order":1162},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1164,"slug":1165,"category":616,"order":1162},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1167,"slug":1168,"category":815,"order":1169},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1171,"slug":1172,"category":616,"order":1169},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1174,"slug":1175,"category":815,"order":1176},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1178,"slug":1179,"category":616,"order":1176},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1181,"slug":1182,"category":815,"order":1183},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1185,"slug":1186,"category":616,"order":1183},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1188,"slug":1189,"category":815,"order":1190},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1192,"slug":1193,"category":616,"order":1190},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1195,"slug":1196,"category":815,"order":1197},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1199,"slug":1200,"category":616,"order":1197},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1202,"slug":1203,"category":815,"order":1204},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1206,"slug":1207,"category":616,"order":1204},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1209,"slug":1210,"category":815,"order":1211},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1213,"slug":1214,"category":616,"order":1211},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1216,"slug":1217,"category":815,"order":1218},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1220,"slug":1221,"category":616,"order":1218},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1223,"slug":1224,"category":815,"order":1225},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1227,"slug":1228,"category":616,"order":1225},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1230,"slug":1231,"category":815,"order":1232},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1234,"slug":1235,"category":616,"order":1232},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1237,"slug":1238,"category":815,"order":1239},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1241,"slug":1242,"category":616,"order":1239},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1244,"slug":1245,"category":815,"order":1246},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1248,"slug":1249,"category":616,"order":1246},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1251,"slug":1252,"category":815,"order":1253},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1255,"slug":1256,"category":616,"order":1253},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1258,"slug":1259,"category":815,"order":1260},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1262,"slug":1263,"category":616,"order":1260},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1265,"slug":1266,"category":815,"order":1267},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1269,"slug":1270,"category":616,"order":1267},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1272,"slug":1273,"category":815,"order":1274},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1276,"slug":1277,"category":616,"order":1274},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1279,"slug":1280,"category":815,"order":1281},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1283,"slug":1284,"category":616,"order":1281},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1286,"slug":1287,"category":815,"order":1288},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1290,"slug":1291,"category":616,"order":1288},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1293,"slug":1294,"category":815,"order":1295},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1297,"slug":1298,"category":616,"order":1295},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1300,"slug":1301,"category":815,"order":1302},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1304,"slug":1305,"category":616,"order":1302},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1307,"slug":1308,"category":815,"order":1309},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1311,"slug":1312,"category":616,"order":1309},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1314,"slug":1315,"category":815,"order":1316},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1318,"slug":1319,"category":616,"order":1316},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1321,"slug":1322,"category":815,"order":1323},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1325,"slug":1326,"category":616,"order":1323},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1328,"slug":1329,"category":815,"order":1330},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1332,"slug":1333,"category":616,"order":1330},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1335,"slug":1336,"category":815,"order":1337},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1339,"slug":1340,"category":616,"order":1337},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1342,"slug":1343,"category":815,"order":1344},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1346,"slug":1347,"category":616,"order":1344},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1349,"slug":1350,"category":815,"order":1351},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1353,"slug":1354,"category":616,"order":1351},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1356,"slug":1357,"category":815,"order":1358},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1360,"slug":1361,"category":616,"order":1358},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1363,"slug":1364,"category":815,"order":1365},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1367,"slug":1368,"category":616,"order":1365},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1370,"slug":1371,"category":815,"order":1372},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1374,"slug":1375,"category":616,"order":1372},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1377,"slug":1378,"category":815,"order":1379},"2020 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