[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2158},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":622,"library-sidebar-dao":1624,"library-sidebar-models":1926},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":608,"date":609,"description":610,"extension":611,"meta":612,"navigation":613,"order":614,"path":615,"seo":616,"seoDescription":610,"seoTitle":617,"slug":618,"stem":619,"__hash__":620,"_collection":621},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang.md","巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":567},"minimark",[9,13,17,22,25,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,51,54,57,61,64,67,70,74,77,85,89,92,96,99,102,105,108,111,114,118,128,131,134,137,140,144,151,154,158,161,164,168,171,174,177,180,183,187,190,193,196,199,202,209,212,215,218,222,225,228,231,234,237,240,244,247,250,257,271,274,283,286,289,292,299,302,305,308,311,315,321,324,329,332,335,338,341,344,348,352,355,359,362,365,368,371,374,378,381,384,386,389,394,397,401,404,407,410,413,416,418,422,425,428,432,435,439,442,445,448,451,454,456,460,463,466,469,473,476,480,483,486,489,492,494,497,501,504,508,511,514,517,520,525,528,531,535,539,542,545,548,553,556,559,564],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2013年乔治城大学演讲",[14,15,16],"p",{},"2013年10月11日",[18,19,21],"h3",{"id":20},"去年我们为你们请来了摇滚明星今年我们请来了真正的巨星","去年我们为你们请来了摇滚明星，今年我们请来了真正的巨星",[14,23,24],{},"接下来，我将通过一系列问题向沃伦提问，时间大约为25到30分钟，然后我们会让在场的学生们提问，给他们机会向沃伦请教他的人生经验。",[18,26,28],{"id":27},"从投资者的角度来看你认为过去几个周期的经验教训是什么","从投资者的角度来看，你认为过去几个周期的经验教训是什么？",[14,30,31],{},"我们这里有很多年轻人，沃伦你经历了多个经济周期，已经投资了超过七十年。那么，针对这些年轻人，应该从这些经验中学到些什么呢？",[14,33,34],{},"**沃伦：**经验教训就是人们会继续犯他们之前的错误。人类的行为并不特别和智商相关，特别是当人们变得贪婪时，情况就会变得很糟。我们曾经历过一次巨大的泡沫，这个泡沫发生在美国最重要的资产——房地产上。美国人拥有的最重要的资产是住房，而这也是一个可以通过借款大规模加杠杆的市场。因此，我们出现了一个巨大的泡沫，条件变得极为宽松，大家都能借到更多的钱。直到这个泡沫破裂。",[14,36,37],{},"然而，人们总是会慢慢进入这个泡沫，而当他们感到恐惧时，事情就会突然发生。当每个人都感到恐惧时，他们都会同时想要退出市场，这种情况曾经发生过，而且还会再次发生。不同的情况会导致不同的结果，但人类的行为基本上不会改变。",[14,39,40],{},"我们会经历周期性的衰退和偶尔的恐慌。并不是所有的衰退都来自恐慌，但是好消息是，如果你回顾一下20世纪的历史——我们经历了两次世界大战、大萧条、流感大流行、冷战、原子弹……所有这些坏事几乎在不同时期轮番发生。而尽管如此，道琼斯指数从66点涨到了11,497点。",[14,42,43],{},"即使我们经历了所有这些可怕的事件，但美国依然表现得非常强劲。当我11岁时买了我的第一只股票，那是1942年春天，距离珍珠港事件不到几个月，而那时我们在太平洋上节节败退，科雷吉多岛和巴丹死亡行军发生在眼前，在欧洲，英格兰正遭受德国闪电战的袭击。尽管如此，当时道琼斯指数也只有100点。",[14,45,46],{},"看看我们现在的情况，国家真的运转得很好。问题是——我认为对于像美国这样繁荣的社会来说，我们的责任是找出如何确保没有人被落得太远。",[18,48,50],{"id":49},"你如何看待美国未来十年的乐观前景","你如何看待美国未来十年的乐观前景？",[14,52,53],{},"**沃伦：**想象一下，回到1789年，才几百年前，这个国家几乎什么都没有。你知道吗，那个时候，欧洲有大约7500万人，英国本身也有几百万的人，和我们一样聪明、勤奋，拥有与我们类似的自然资源。然而，我们最终却成了全球GDP的四分之一。",[14,55,56],{},"正如克里斯托弗·伦敦（Christopher Wren）所说，如果你想了解我的纪念碑，就看看四周。而我想说的是，如果你想了解美国的纪念碑，看看四周，这个国家的成就几乎是在短短几百年里取得的。从当时我们只有不到400万人，至今成为了世界的经济强国。",[18,58,60],{"id":59},"美国的成功与未来沃伦巴菲特的乐观看法","美国的成功与未来：沃伦·巴菲特的乐观看法",[14,62,63],{},"几百年后，美国取得了成功，我们不希望弄错任何事情。我们要做的是找到更好的方法，利用这些财富。我们不需要担心系统会崩溃，但我们会经历周期性的衰退和偶尔的恐慌，而这些通常是由一些难以预见的因素引发的。",[18,65,66],{"id":66},"经济衰退与美国的复苏",[14,68,69],{},"**沃伦：**我记得2008年秋天，我曾在《纽约时报》上写过一篇社论，表达了我对美国经济复苏的信心。我说，尽管我们会经历一次大的衰退，但国家最终会恢复过来，历史证明美国能够从困难中复苏。所以，不用担心美国的未来，继续相信你处在正确的地方。",[18,71,73],{"id":72},"投资策略在低谷时投资待涨时卖出","投资策略：在低谷时投资，待涨时卖出",[14,75,76],{},"**沃伦：**你提到我在投资中遵循的策略——就是在困难时期投资，然后坐等市场回升。这种策略一直对我很有帮助。那么，我最喜欢的投资时机是什么呢？我总是觉得，明天的机会会是最好的。",[14,78,79,80,84],{},"不过，有一个特别的案例让我印象深刻。这里有一家公司，名叫",[81,82,83],"strong",{},"GEICO","，我第一次接触这家公司是在1950年。那时我20岁，我来到了华盛顿，得知我崇敬的哥伦比亚大学教授本·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）是GEICO的董事长。于是我来到了公司，结果发现大门紧锁，因为那天是周六。我在门口敲了敲，最后一个清洁工帮我打开了门，一位叫做劳拉·戴维森的先生花了四个小时的时间，耐心地教我所有关于保险的知识。他帮了我很多，在我的一生中，很多人给了我无私的帮助，这点值得记住，尤其当我年纪大了，回头看这些曾经给予我帮助的人。",[18,86,88],{"id":87},"一路走来感恩与传承","一路走来，感恩与传承",[14,90,91],{},"**沃伦：**你会在生活中得到许多来自优秀人的帮助，这是我们永远要记得的事。没有人能单打独斗，奥巴马曾在竞选时说过一句话：“没有人能单独做到这一点”，这话是对的。我们都生活在那些曾经种下的树荫下。所以，我认为如果我们有幸收获了好运，我们也有责任为别人种下几棵树。",[18,93,95],{"id":94},"购买geico一次幸运的投资机会","购买GEICO：一次幸运的投资机会",[14,97,98],{},"**沃伦：**说到GEICO，我第一次接触这家公司是在我从哥伦比亚大学毕业后。那时，我开始了证券销售的工作。我的姑妈艾丽丝非常信任我，她几乎会买我卖的任何东西。于是，她买了我卖的第一只股票——政府人寿保险的股票。接下来几年我经历了很多事情，而戴维森先生一直对我非常友好。",[14,100,101],{},"直到1976年，GEICO遇到了一些麻烦，因为他们误算了准备金，导致公司面临破产的危机。这时，我再次回到了华盛顿，并迅速在市场上买入了公司三分之一的股份。到1995年，这三分之一的股份变成了二分之一，因为公司回购了股份。",[14,103,104],{},"我那时特地去见了戴维森先生，他当时已经96或97岁了，他手里有一大批GEICO的股票，而这些股票并没有计入成本，因为他持有这些股票已经很久了。我对他说：“戴维森先生，如果我出价现金收购这家公司，你将面临巨额税收。如果你去世时持有这些股票，你就不用交这些税，因为你会得到股票的重估价值。”于是我表示，如果他同意，我才会提出收购建议。他说：“沃伦，我一生都希望看到这个时刻。”于是，我们收购了GEICO的剩余部分。他是个伟大的人。",[14,106,107],{},"我想从华盛顿刚才的话题开始谈起——这也是我的故乡，这里是我成长的地方。那么，你在乔治城的美好回忆有哪些呢？",[14,109,110],{},"**沃伦：**我66年前曾在乔治城医院送报纸。我对这里产生了深厚的感情，因为在医院，病人会给我小费。我的常客从来不付小费，但是如果我去医院送报纸，病人们就会给我现金小费。有时，尤其是那些刚生完孩子的女士，她们会悄悄地告诉我刚出生婴儿的体重，比如8磅11盎司。当时，华盛顿非常流行一个叫“数字赌博”的东西，她们认为把这些信息告诉我非常重要，认为我能根据这些数字参与当天的赌博活动。那时的数字赌博非常盛行，她们认为这对我来说是非常有价值的信息。",[14,112,113],{},"所以我对乔治城有很多美好的回忆。我也曾经历了二战，这是在华盛顿度过的非常有趣的时光。我的父亲是国会议员，那时的美国正经历着一个特别的时期。而那时的美国，可能比我一生中任何时候都更为团结。那时，当战争爆发，像鲍比·费勒（Bobby Feller）这样的运动员都纷纷参军，大家都自愿加入，参与了非常高比例的战时志愿者行动，大家也都自觉遵守规则，比如汽油配给、糖和肉类的配给等。我们也在学校购买了储蓄债券来帮助支持部队。所以那真是一个非常特别的时期。",[18,115,117],{"id":116},"投资的开始11岁时的第一笔投资","投资的开始：11岁时的第一笔投资",[14,119,120,127],{},[81,121,122,123,126],{},"沃伦：",[81,124,125],{},"至于投资的开始，那是在我13岁左右，也许你听到的故事并不完全准确，但大致是那个时候。其实我在11岁的时候就开始了我的投资生涯。我花了五年的时间，每年都得攒120美元，然后才买得起三股","城市服务优先股","。",[14,129,130],{},"我爸爸原本从事投资行业，但他并不太关心这些。我会在每个星期六早晨去他的办公室，那里有一些书籍，我就把它们读了个遍。后来我去了奥马哈公共图书馆，读了所有关于投资的书。直到我们搬到华盛顿之后，我便开始借阅国会图书馆的书籍。可以说，我几乎读遍了所有的投资书籍，那时我非常着迷，而如今，我依然觉得投资非常有趣。你知道，做任何事情总有可能会遇到身体上的限制，像是做棒球运动员，可能某天腿部不再灵活。但对于我来说，我的腿已经不行了，但这并不影响我现在的工作。我依然每天都非常享受工作，而且我现在比以往任何时候都更加快乐，因为我做的是我喜欢的事情，并且和我喜欢的人一起工作。",[18,132,133],{"id":133},"工作的乐趣与激情",[14,135,136],{},"**沃伦：**我常说，我在工作中跳着舞步走进办公室（笑）。你别让我示范，不过说到这一点，我必须承认，今天的掌声让我挺感动的。毕竟，我已经83岁了，大家可能都在担心我讲完这一场演讲会不会还在场（笑）。",[14,138,139],{},"我跟很多人共进过晚餐，知道你有比任何人都多的精力。你确实给我留下了深刻的印象。",[18,141,143],{"id":142},"慈善事业捐赠誓言的起源","慈善事业：捐赠誓言的起源",[14,145,146,147,150],{},"沃伦，让我们聊聊慈善方面的事。乔治亚州的总统提到了",[81,148,149],{},"捐赠誓言","（Giving Pledge），那么你和比尔（盖茨）是如何想到这个主意的？现在做得怎么样了？",[14,152,153],{},"**沃伦：**我们做得很好。大约在三四年前，比尔和梅琳达、我一起在加利福尼亚州开会。我不太记得具体是怎么开始的，但我们决定给大卫·洛克菲勒打电话，邀请他在纽约为大约16到18人主持一场关于慈善的晚宴。在那次晚宴上，欧普拉·温弗瑞和彭博市长也都出席了。这是一个私密的晚宴，我让每位与会者围坐在桌旁，分享他们是如何形成自己慈善理念的。我们花了大约两个半小时，才轮到所有人发表看法。",[18,155,157],{"id":156},"沃伦巴菲特与比尔盖茨的慈善合作","沃伦·巴菲特与比尔·盖茨的慈善合作",[14,159,160],{},"**沃伦：**我和比尔在那次晚宴上讨论后，觉得也许我们可以将这些富有热情的人们的精神传递给其他富有的人，看看能不能发展出一种机制，让这些人承诺至少将他们的净资产的一半用于慈善。到目前为止，我们已经有了大约115个参与者，我也做了很多努力，不断地拨打电话给这些亿万富翁。有时他们会告诉我，自己做不到。我决定开一本书，教人如何用5亿美元生活，因为显然这些人似乎很难理解如何在这种情况下生活。",[14,162,163],{},"但是，这项工作一直很有意义。我曾收到一位女士的信，她和她的丈夫拥有超过100亿美元。她给我送来了一条领带，并附上了一张手写的便条，告诉我他们夫妇也没有真正面对过这个问题。制定计划有时就像面对自己的死亡一样困难。于是她和她的丈夫做出了改变，决定将超过100亿中的一半用于慈善事业。虽然他们往往会推迟这一决定，但最终他们选择了行动。",[18,165,167],{"id":166},"推动慈善让更多人参与","推动慈善：让更多人参与",[14,169,170],{},"**沃伦：**我告诉那些我打电话给的亿万富翁们：“遗嘱才是最重要的。”我常对70多岁的人说：“你真的认为当你95岁、怀里抱着一个年轻女孩时，你的决策能力会比现在更好么？那么现在就行动吧，兄弟们。”我想，这可能对一些70岁的人来说是一种提醒，让他们意识到现在做决定可能会更明智。",[14,172,173],{},"比尔（盖茨）非常有影响力，他在全球范围内接触到很多人，因为他比我旅行得更多。我们希望更多人能受到激励。我年轻时读过卡内基、洛克菲勒等人的故事，受到了他们行为的影响。比尔也是如此，很多年轻人像马克·扎克伯格等加入了我们的行列，他显然会吸引比我更多的年轻人群体。所以，我们希望这项事业能够成为“财富福音”，就像安德鲁·卡内基在一百多年前提出的理念那样，影响更多人。",[18,175,176],{"id":176},"慈善的真正意义",[14,178,179],{},"**沃伦：**我想强调的一点是，我们这个群体中的任何人都没有捐出过一分钱，而这笔钱会影响到他们的生活方式。事实上，我更钦佩的是那些在星期天捐赠五美元或一美元的人，因为对他们而言，这笔捐赠会影响他们是否能带孩子去看电影，或者是否能去外面吃饭。这些人正在放弃一些对他们家庭有用的东西，将它们捐赠给其他人。那些能够放弃对自己有用的东西，真正为了他人的福祉做出贡献的人，我认为才是最值得赞扬的人。",[14,181,182],{},"我虽然没有放弃任何对我有用的东西，我给出的股票也没有对我有任何实用性——但这些股票可以对其他人产生巨大的效用，比如用于疫苗研发、教育等领域。所以，如果我们要攻克像小儿麻痹症这样的大难题，它需要巨额捐款，那我们就去争取这些资金。",[18,184,186],{"id":185},"与比尔盖茨的合作与选择","与比尔·盖茨的合作与选择",[14,188,189],{},"**沃伦：**你们做慈善的方式也很独特，特别是你和比尔·梅琳达基金会的合作。你们的共同点在于，你们不仅仅捐出金钱，而且几乎都承诺将大部分财富捐出。那么你是如何看待你与比尔的关系，为什么选择与他们合作，而不是自己成立一个基金会呢？",[14,191,192],{},"沃伦：最初，我和我的妻子在20多岁时就计划过，当我们拥有了所需的一切之后，我们会将余下的财富用于社会。当时，我以为她会比我活得长，因为她比我年轻，而且女性的寿命通常较长。但不幸的是，她在2004年去世了。",[18,194,195],{"id":195},"巴菲特的慈善哲学与社区重建项目",[18,197,198],{"id":198},"慈善的分工与专业化",[14,200,201],{},"**沃伦：**当我的妻子去世后，我需要调整我们的慈善计划。就像亚当·斯密在《劳动分工》中提到的那样，如果你擅长一件事情，不意味着你能做好其他事情。你应该在最擅长的领域发挥自己的才能，同时借助其他专业人士的帮助。",[14,203,204,205,208],{},"比如，我妻子生孩子时，我去找产科医生，而不是自己接生；牙疼时，我会去看牙医。同样，我希望将财富交给那些在慈善领域经验丰富、年轻、充满活力并且目标一致的人。而盖茨基金会的核心原则是：",[81,206,207],{},"每一个生命都有同等的价值","。如果你以此为基础，很多事情都会顺理成章。",[14,210,211],{},"比尔和梅琳达，连同我的三个孩子，他们各自都有一笔规模可观的基金会。我没有具体指导他们如何使用这些基金，但我告诉他们要勇敢尝试。我说，如果你们在慈善领域的每件事都成功了，那说明你们做的事情不够重要，因为真正重要的事情往往最具挑战性，失败是不可避免的。",[18,213,214],{"id":214},"慈善基金的使用规则",[14,216,217],{},"**沃伦：**我有明确的规则，要求这些基金在我去世后的十年内全部花光。我不相信能挑选出一个尚未出生的后代，仅因为他们姓“巴菲特”，就能成为这些财富的最佳管理者。未来50年后会有许多新的慈善家来应对那时的问题，但我希望这些资金能迅速用于解决当前的问题。我也不想从坟墓里控制任何事情（笑）。",[18,219,221],{"id":220},"社区重建east-lake项目的合作","社区重建：East Lake项目的合作",[14,223,224],{},"**沃伦：**最近，我与汤姆·卡森斯（Tom Cousins）合作了社区发展项目。这与我过去的慈善方式有些不同，但背后的理念是相同的——支持那些投入时间、精力和资源，并在有价值的项目上取得成功的人。",[14,226,227],{},"汤姆是亚特兰大的一位了不起的人物。他接手了一个曾经问题重重的社区，East Lake。这个社区曾充满犯罪，学校教育一塌糊涂。汤姆决定采用一种整体方法来改善这个社区，而不仅仅是解决某一个具体问题。他花了大约10年的时间，将这个“灾区”改造成了一个全新的社区。",[14,229,230],{},"后来我和汤姆讨论，很多人会认为他的成功仅仅是因为他是汤姆·卡森斯，而且他住在亚特兰大。我对他说：“我们应该尝试把这个模式复制到其他地方。”于是，我们把这一模式带到了新奥尔良，那里刚刚经历卡特里娜飓风的重创。我们创建了一个混合收入的社区，不是完全依赖补贴，而是努力让不同种族、不同经济背景的人共同生活和工作。",[14,232,233],{},"新奥尔良的项目非常成功，我们随后在印第安纳波利斯复制了这一模式，也取得了不错的成果。现在我们正在推进另外11个城市的项目。这种方法不仅仅是一个社区的改变，更是一种新型社会模式的实验。",[18,235,236],{"id":236},"与优秀人士合作的启示",[14,238,239],{},"**沃伦：**汤姆是一位杰出的领导者，他最近还在《华尔街日报》上发表了一篇关于这项工作的文章。他不仅聪明而且充满热情，还投入了自己的资金。与像他这样高质量、充满活力的人合作是一种荣幸。这样的合作可以让我们把资源和才智最大化，用于对社会真正有意义的事情。",[18,241,243],{"id":242},"巴菲特谈经济从危机复苏到不平等问题","巴菲特谈经济：从危机复苏到不平等问题",[18,245,246],{"id":246},"经济的复苏与当前状态",[14,248,249],{},"**沃伦：**我们的经济从五年前的金融危机中复苏得很好。当时的恐慌是前所未有的，比你能想象的还要严重。我非常认真地说，我们当时就在悬崖边缘上。幸运的是，我要对本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）、汉克·保尔森（Hank Paulson）、蒂姆·盖特纳（Tim Geithner）给予极大的赞扬，还有总统布什，虽然我从未投票支持过他。",[14,251,252,253,256],{},"布什总统在2008年9月的一个白宫讲话中，用10个字总结了当时的经济状况：“",[81,254,255],{},"如果资金不流动，这个家伙就完蛋了","。”（If money doesn’t loosen up, this sucker could go down.）他在背后支持这些经济决策者，使得经济得以复苏。如今，企业经营状况良好，许多公司的利润创下历史新高，包括我们的许多公司。",[14,258,259,260,263,264,267,268,127],{},"然而，美国普通民众的生活水平并没有完全恢复。不平等问题日益严重。《福布斯》400富豪榜最近公布，这400人的总财富达到",[81,261,262],{},"2万亿美元","。20年前，这一数字是",[81,265,266],{},"3000亿美元","，增长了六七倍。而与此同时，根据今天的报道，",[81,269,270],{},"实际购买力的中位收入与1989年持平",[18,272,273],{"id":273},"不平等的加剧",[14,275,276,282],{},[81,277,122,278,281],{},[81,279,280],{},"虽然经济在增长，但其成果分配不均。富人群体表现得极其出色，商业利润率和企业资产回报率都处于历史高位。然而，如果看美国底层20%的家庭——约2400万个家庭，总人口接近6000万人——他们的年收入不到","2.2万美元","。试想一下，一个家庭带着几个孩子靠这个收入生活，实在是非常困难。",[14,284,285],{},"我们拥有每人5万美元GDP的经济，但很多人仍然生活得不好。我们已经学会了如何生产大量的商品和服务，但尚未学会如何让每个人都能共享这种繁荣。",[18,287,288],{"id":288},"美国经济的长期增长潜力",[14,290,291],{},"**沃伦：**美国经济会继续增长。即便年均增长仅为2%，如果人口增长1%，人均GDP实际增速仍是1%。这意味着每20年，即一代人，美国人均GDP会增长20%。这不是一个坏结果。",[14,293,294,295,298],{},"自1930年我的出生以来，美国实际人均GDP增长了",[81,296,297],{},"六倍","。要知道，在此之前的几个世纪，人们的生活几乎没有任何改善。美国的经济体系确实有效，今天出生在美国的孩子是有史以来最幸运的一代，因为他们生活在一个充满潜力的国家中。",[18,300,301],{"id":301},"确保繁荣的共享",[14,303,304],{},"**沃伦：**尽管市场体系有效运作，但我们需要确保每个人都能合理地参与其成果分享。我们不需要完全的结果平等，但也需要确保每个人都有一个基本体面的生活标准。",[18,306,307],{"id":307},"学生提问环节",[14,309,310],{},"接下来，我们将把话筒交给学生们，让他们提问。",[18,312,314],{"id":313},"投资建议正确的心态与方法胜过高智商","投资建议：正确的心态与方法胜过高智商",[14,316,317,320],{},[81,318,319],{},"学生提问","：",[14,322,323],{},"“您是否有任何投资建议？学生们都在努力赚些生活费。”",[14,325,326,320],{},[81,327,328],{},"巴菲特回答",[14,330,331],{},"“我在1949年买了一本由本·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）写的书，叫《聪明的投资者》。这本书是我最好的投资之一，甚至可以说仅次于我的两个结婚证书（笑）。格雷厄姆的方法简单而有效，但只有部分人能接受并立即应用，我就是其中之一。",[14,333,334],{},"投资的关键在于拥有正确的框架和哲学。这样的理念可以让你在未来几十年中找到机会，尤其是在市场恐慌的时期，比如五年前的金融危机。那时，许多股票会以荒谬的价格交易。",[14,336,337],{},"发现廉价股票并不需要高智商，但需要一种愿意采取行动的性格。我告诉那些想进入投资行业的人，如果你的智商是160，最好卖掉30分，因为用不上这么高的智商。投资更需要的是理性、冷静的心态，以及独立思考的能力。当大多数人恐慌时，你要能够看清事实，判断某只股票是否真的被低估。”",[14,339,340],{},"“我的投资建议很简单——买美国银行的股票吧，你会过得不错（笑）。”",[342,343],"hr",{},[18,345,347],{"id":346},"巴菲特在国际市场的投资以色列巴西等地的经验","巴菲特在国际市场的投资：以色列、巴西等地的经验",[14,349,350,320],{},[81,351,319],{},[14,353,354],{},"“您曾经投资过中国、韩国和以色列，还与巴西的3G资本合作收购亨氏公司。那么，您是否考虑下一步投资巴西市场？”",[14,356,357,320],{},[81,358,328],{},[14,360,361],{},"“我并不知道下一步会投资哪里。这正是我的工作有趣的地方。如果你打高尔夫球，每次一杆进洞，这游戏也就没意思了。未知的挑战才是乐趣所在。",[14,363,364],{},"例如，以色列的投资案例。2006年秋天，我收到一封来自埃坦·瓦德海默（Eitan Wertheimer）的信。他说他家族的公司只想卖给伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway），并邀请我了解这家公司。这封信只有一页半，却让我觉得很有意思，于是我邀请他们过来谈。他们来了，我们直接以40亿美元收购了80%的股份。",[14,366,367],{},"尽管我从未见过这家公司，但埃坦一直劝我去以色列看看。我最终答应说，‘如果交易完成，我会去。’结果我们买下了公司，我去参观后才发现，这真是我见过的最棒的工厂。埃坦笑着对我说，‘如果你早点来看这些工厂，你可能会出更高的价。’",[14,369,370],{},"类似地，我们在巴西与豪尔赫·保罗·雷曼（Jorge Paulo Lemann）及其团队合作也非常愉快。他们是非常优秀的合作伙伴，我们的亨氏收购案就是由他们负责运营的。”",[18,372,373],{"id":373},"巴菲特谈论金融危机与衍生品",[14,375,376,320],{},[81,377,328],{},[14,379,380],{},"“这对我们来说是一个很好的机会，至于明天会有什么机会，我也不知道。去年12月，我去了科罗拉多州的博尔德，那里有一个小组见面。乔治·保罗说，他可能有一个我感兴趣的想法。于是我去了那里，回程的飞机上，他解释了他关于亨氏的想法。我听后说，‘我参与！’",[14,382,383],{},"我还要告诉你一件非常令人印象深刻的事情。就在我说了‘我参与’之后，事情又有了些进展。他给我发了一页纸的治理结构说明，解释了我们两者之间如何合作。他还给我发了一份非常简短的描述，列出了他认为对双方都公平的交易条件。那一页纸上没有一字需要修改。这就是你想要合作的那种人。”",[342,385],{},[18,387,388],{"id":388},"讨论衍生品及金融危机的可能性",[14,390,391,320],{},[81,392,393],{},"提问者",[14,395,396],{},"“你曾提到过人们会在经济的兴衰周期中犯同样的错误。而近年来，有一些新的金融发展，譬如衍生品的出现，衍生品市场最近也快速膨胀。你曾经称衍生品为‘大规模毁灭性武器’，现在它们已经成为一个700万亿美元的行业。你认为这会为下一次金融危机埋下伏笔吗？”",[14,398,399,320],{},[81,400,328],{},[14,402,403],{},"“很难说。我们已经有了‘多德-弗兰克法案’（Dodd-Frank Act）。如果你回顾2008年9月和10月的情况，会发现一些非常特别的事情发生了。美联储向AIG注入了850亿美元，如果没有这个举措，我们的世界将会大不相同。",[14,405,406],{},"当时，亨克·保尔森（Hank Paulson）对货币市场基金进行了担保，当时有3000万美国人持有货币市场基金，他们都在恐慌，而三天之内，3000亿美元从非政府货币市场基金中流出，最终其中有1250亿美元流入了政府基金。这3000亿美元几乎等于当时富国银行（Wells Fargo）或沃乔维亚（Wachovia）存款的总额，而这两家银行当时还是独立的。",[14,408,409],{},"这些做法在‘多德-弗兰克法案’下，基本上不可能再发生了。我认为在未来，如果再发生类似的恐慌，伯南克（Bernanke）和保尔森（Paulson）所做的事情是不可复制的。",[14,411,412],{},"在恐慌时期，唯一能停止它的就是那些有能力和意愿的人。他们会说‘我会不惜一切代价去解决问题’，而伯南克、保尔森，最终还有国会，尽管有些不情愿，但他们对美国公众说了这句话。你可以相信，如果伯南克说‘我会做任何事’，没有人知道《联邦储备法》第13条第3款到底是什么，而它可能并不是为这种情况而设的，但他还是用它做了同样的事，财政部的‘外汇稳定基金’也是如此。它是在1934年设立的，当时没人想到它会用来处理货币市场基金的问题。",[14,414,415],{},"不过，那些强有力的人物具备了印钞的能力，像伯南克这样的人就能这么做，而且总统也支持他们。这就是在真正的恐慌时期的应对方式。我担心的是，国会不愿意给任何人这么大的权力，他们对美联储拥有这么多权力感到不安，或者对保尔森在TARP中采取的行动有异议。对他们我表示敬意，但我不确定是否会再出现那种大规模的恐慌，没人知道它会从哪里来，但当时机来临时，问题在于那些因恐慌而被冻结、导致经济引擎停滞的人，是否能快速恢复并采取行动。我不确定目前的法规是否能在这方面起到积极作用。”",[342,417],{},[18,419,421],{"id":420},"警告人类的愚蠢与市场泡沫","警告：人类的愚蠢与市场泡沫",[14,423,424],{},"“无论如何，国家会挺过去，但我们很难制定出能避免人们做出愚蠢行为的规定。特别是当愚蠢行为在过去几年中被证明是非常有利可图时，事情就变得难以预测。人类的行为就是这样，他们总是觉得自己是舞会中的灰姑娘，觉得随着夜晚的临近，音乐越来越好，酒水流畅，大家都以为自己会在午夜前离开。当然，墙上没有时钟，他们仍然在跳舞。所以这会再次发生，当它发生时，买入就对了。”",[18,426,427],{"id":427},"讨论收入不平等与市场系统",[14,429,430,320],{},[81,431,393],{},[14,433,434],{},"“你好，我是约翰·拉夫，来自乔治亚州，我对东湖那边的工作比较了解，非常感激你的贡献。你刚刚谈到了收入不平等的问题。如果我们看看阶层流动率，或者看看经过通货膨胀调整后的中产阶级家庭的平均收入，这些数据显示自1970年代以来，这些数据一直在下降。有人可能会认为，今天的中产阶级比过去30年更难生存。我想知道你是否有更多的想法，关于如何让‘ rising tide（经济腾飞）’能惠及所有人，而不仅仅是富人？”",[14,436,437,320],{},[81,438,328],{},[14,440,441],{},"“这正是我们所看到的现象，就像约翰·肯尼迪谈到的‘上涨的潮水能提升所有的船只’一样，确实，像我所说的，过去20年里，‘财富500强’的前400名富豪的财富从3000亿美元增至了2万亿美元。这个现象说明存在一个我认为是结构性的问题。随着市场系统越来越专业化，如果你回溯到几百年前的农业社会，大多数人都在农场工作，几乎每个人都适应大部分的工作要求。那时的工作很简单，人们能够普遍参与。而现在，随着世界越来越专业化，市场系统的运作方式使得社会中很大一部分人并不被需要来推动GDP的增长。",[14,443,444],{},"这种情况下，顶端的人们能够在经济中持续获得利益，而大部分人则无法分享到这些利益。我认为政府必须对此进行干预。你知道，我有时候会给学生们提出一个假设：想象你出生前的24小时，你坐在那里，‘约翰’或者‘乔尼’，我们还不知道你是什么性别，正坐在母亲的子宫中。这时，一个精灵出现了，精灵说，‘约翰或者乔尼，你看起来是一个非常有潜力的人类，我将赋予你一个巨大的责任，我允许你决定世界将如何运作，你将进入什么样的世界。你可以决定经济系统、社会系统和政治系统，你来设计它，并且无论你设计什么样的系统，你就会在其中生活，与你的子孙一起生活。’",[14,446,447],{},"你作为一个极其聪明的24小时之前出生的人，会问，‘精灵，有什么陷阱吗？’精灵回答说，‘有一个陷阱，在你决定好系统并把它固定之后，你需要走向那边有一个桶，桶里有七十亿张纸条，每张纸条代表一个人类，代表全球每一个人。你要从中抽一张纸条，它可能写着男性，女性，白人，黑人，虚弱，强壮，聪明，或低于平均水平，可能是美国，可能是孟加拉国。’",[14,449,450],{},"那么，在你不知道自己抽到的是哪张纸条的情况下，你会设计一个什么样的世界呢？你肯定希望设计一个能生产大量商品和服务的世界，并且不断增产。你需要很多物品，即使这是世界上最公平的社会，但如果它坐落在一个荒无人烟的沙漠岛上，也不会对任何人有益。所以，你设计的世界要能够创造高效的产出。",[14,452,453],{},"一旦你设计出了一个有效的系统，你当然希望这个系统能消除每个人的恐惧，而这不仅仅意味着有很多警察，而是指消除对衰老、健康等问题的恐惧。你还需要设计一个系统，确保那些在市场中没有成功的人能得到帮助。我们现有的市场系统是为了最大化商品和服务的产出而设计的，虽然我们在这一点上做得很出色，但我认为，我们现在应该更多地关注那些被市场系统遗弃的弱势群体，如何让他们的处境得到改善。”",[342,455],{},[18,457,459],{"id":458},"反思历史社会进步与政府角色","反思历史：社会进步与政府角色",[14,461,462],{},"“我们曾经认为黑人在建国初期是‘三分之二的人’。我们在1776年宣言中说‘所有人都生而平等’，但是到了1789年，我们仍然认为黑人只是‘三分之二个人’。直到1920年，我们才通过了第19修正案，允许女性投票。女性一直被视为一个与男性不同的阶层，直到那时才有所改变。",[14,464,465],{},"所以我认为，作为一个社会，我们在行为上的进步是显著的。我们已经在创造大量财富方面取得了巨大的成就。但我认为，现在我们必须更加关注如何帮助那些在市场系统中失败的人群，让他们过上更好的生活。要实现这一点，最终还是要通过政府来做出调整。”",[18,467,468],{"id":468},"美联储的债券回购政策",[14,470,471,320],{},[81,472,393],{},[14,474,475],{},"“你好，我是詹姆斯·费什巴赫，就读于外交学院一年级。众所周知，你是本·伯南克的支持者。但明年1月他将卸任，新的美联储主席接手后，你认为他们应该继续推行美联储备受争议的债券回购计划吗？如果应该继续，应该持续多久？”",[14,477,478,320],{},[81,479,328],{},[14,481,482],{},"“我认为他们应该采取伯南克的方法，他表示会继续执行该计划，直到看到经济有更多改善为止。我认为，过去几年里，他对经济改善的速度感到略微失望，虽然不是特别失望，但仍希望看到更快的改善。因此，就在前几天，他宣布会将计划延长，直到经济达到他的预期为止。他并没有提前判断何时停止，而是根据经济改善的条件来决定何时改变政策。",[14,484,485],{},"目前，经济确实在变好。但我们正处于一个从未尝试过的实验中。美联储的资产负债表规模已经达到3.5万亿美元。买入证券相对容易，而卖出证券则要困难得多。未来我们将看到这场实验如何发展。几个月前，关于缩减购债计划的暗示就导致了市场的明显反应，比如十年期国债收益率上升了大约100个基点。",[14,487,488],{},"如果美联储真的尝试大规模去杠杆化，那将是一场新的实验。过去，美国公众的债务水平下降，而政府通过美联储加杠杆。如果未来美联储大规模去杠杆化，可能会产生深远的影响。",[14,490,491],{},"然而，目前美联储并没有去杠杆化的压力。他们拥有巨大的灵活性，可以选择合适的时机去处理这些问题。我认为伯南克是一位非常聪明的人，我也期待他的继任者同样聪明。尽管这是一个从未在如此规模上尝试过的过程，但如果由明智的人来管理，这将是可以应对的。我们拭目以待。”",[342,493],{},[18,495,496],{"id":496},"商业模式的变化与评估企业的关键因素",[14,498,499,320],{},[81,500,393],{},[14,502,503],{},"“你好，我叫Shelly，来自中国，现在是乔治城大学的研究生。我和我的朋友Denis都是你和查理的忠实粉丝。我们阅读了查理的书，书中有一整套评估公司的标准，非常有趣，但也很复杂。他提到，你们总是避免投资那些你们不了解的行业。你们喜欢糖果、铁路和可口可乐这样的传统产业。但现在世界正在改变，商业模式也在发生变化。例如，B2C平台正在兴起，人们开始在线购物，也许几年后每个人都会用iPhone支付，而像美国银行这样的机构可能不再发行信用卡。你怎么看待这些变化？对于私人投资者，尤其是风险投资行业，评估企业最重要的因素是什么？”",[14,505,506,320],{},[81,507,328],{},[14,509,510],{},"“最重要的事情是定义哪些公司是你能够做出明智判断的，哪些超出了你的能力圈。你不需要对成千上万家公司都正确，你只需要对极少数公司正确即可。",[14,512,513],{},"1991年7月5日，我在西雅图见到了比尔·盖茨。他告诉我，我必须拥有一台电脑。我问他为什么？他说，‘你可以用它来报税。’我说，‘伯克希尔没有股息分红，我没有收入要报税。’他说，‘你可以用它来管理投资组合。’我回答说，‘我只有一只股票。’",[14,515,516],{},"他接着说，‘电脑会改变一切。’我问，‘它会改变人们嚼什么口香糖吗？’他说，‘可能不会。’我又问，‘它会改变人们嚼哪种口香糖吗？’他说，‘不会。’于是我说，‘那我还是专注于口香糖，你专注于电脑吧。’",[14,518,519],{},"我不需要理解所有的生意。世界上有很多我不了解的行业，但也有成千上万的机会。比如，我了解美国银行，因此我能够做出投资决策。",[14,521,522],{},[81,523,524],{},"理解自己的‘甜蜜区’",[14,526,527],{},"这让我想起了泰德·威廉姆斯的《击球的科学》。书中有一个棒球打击区的图表，他将击球区划分为77个棒球大小的方格。他说，如果他只挥棒击打‘甜蜜区’的球，他的打击率可以达到0.400。如果他不得不挥棒击打低位的外角球，尽管这些球仍在击球区内，他的打击率会下降到0.230。",[14,529,530],{},"所以，投资的关键是专注于你的‘甜蜜区’，选择那些你有能力判断的公司。”",[18,532,534],{"id":533},"击球与投资等待正确的时机","击球与投资：等待正确的时机",[14,536,537,320],{},[81,538,328],{},[14,540,541],{},"“他（泰德·威廉姆斯）说击球最重要的是等待合适的投球。",[14,543,544],{},"他处于不利位置，因为如果计数是‘1好2坏’，即便那个球在下方，他的打击率可能只有230，他还是得挥棒。在投资中，没有人会给你判定‘坏球’。他们可以把微软、通用汽车等公司抛给我，但我不需要出手，也不会因为不打这些球而被判出局。只有当我挥棒却没有打到球时，才算是‘坏球’。所以，我可以每天看成千上万的公司，只有在看到我理解的公司，且价格合适时，我才会出手。如果击中了，我就赚了；如果错过了，那就算是一个‘坏球’，但这是一个极其有利的游戏。误以为你必须对所有事情都有看法是一个巨大的错误。你只需要对少数几个事情有明确的看法。",[14,546,547],{},"实际上，我告诉学生们，如果他们毕业时拿到一张包含20次投资决策的‘打卡卡片’，这一生只能做20个投资决定，他们会变得非常富有，因为他们会认真考虑每一个决定。你不需要做出20个正确的决定就能致富。四五个决定就足够了。所以，我并不担心那些我不理解的事情。如果你能理解一些新兴的业务并识别出其中的机会，那你就能非常成功。例如，亚马逊的成功是杰夫·贝佐斯的巨大成就，我对他深感敬佩，他是一个出色的商人，也是一个很棒的人。",[14,549,550],{},[81,551,552],{},"亚马逊的成功与预见的局限性",[14,554,555],{},"但我能预见到他会取得成功，而其他10家公司会失败吗？我做不到这点，但幸运的是，我不需要做到这一点。你不需要对亚马逊形成看法，但我确实对美国银行和可口可乐有明确的看法。可口可乐自1886年就存在，每天售出18亿份8盎司的可口可乐饮品。如果你每售出一瓶额外的可口可乐饮品赚一分钱，那就是每天1800万美元；一年下来，按365天计算，总共是73亿美元。你认为可口可乐值多一分钱吗？我认为是的，因为我有127年的历史数据来证明这一点。所以，这是我喜欢做的决策。",[14,557,558],{},"你也许会有完全不同的专业领域，可能比我更懂得当前的新兴行业。如果你能理解并预见其中的未来，你也能非常富有。而幸运的是，我不需要对所有行业有深刻的理解。如果我们进入亨氏，我看到人们把番茄酱倒在汉堡和薯条上，我认为这一切不会改变。",[14,560,561],{},[81,562,563],{},"理解产品的可传播性",[14,565,566],{},"有些产品能跨越国界，有些则不能。比如，英国的吉百利巧克力在美国卖得不好，而美国的好时巧克力在其他地方也卖得不好。但软饮料和番茄酱是可以传播的。我喜欢那些可以跨越国界的产品。”",{"title":568,"searchDepth":569,"depth":569,"links":570},"",2,[571,573,574,575,576,577,578,579,580,581,582,583,584,585,586,587,588,589,590,591,592,593,594,595,596,597,598,599,600,601,602,603,604,605,606,607],{"id":20,"depth":572,"text":21},3,{"id":27,"depth":572,"text":28},{"id":49,"depth":572,"text":50},{"id":59,"depth":572,"text":60},{"id":66,"depth":572,"text":66},{"id":72,"depth":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巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1001,"slug":1002,"category":608,"order":999},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1004,"slug":1005,"category":626,"order":1006},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1008,"slug":1009,"category":608,"order":1006},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1011,"slug":1012,"category":806,"order":1013},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1015,"slug":1016,"category":608,"order":1013},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1018,"slug":1019,"category":806,"order":1020},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1022,"slug":1023,"category":608,"order":1020},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1025,"slug":1026,"category":806,"order":1027},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1029,"slug":1030,"category":608,"order":1027},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1032,"slug":1033,"category":806,"order":1034},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1036,"slug":1037,"category":608,"order":1034},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1039,"slug":1040,"category":806,"order":1041},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1043,"slug":1044,"category":608,"order":1041},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1046,"slug":1047,"category":806,"order":1048},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1050,"slug":1051,"category":608,"order":1048},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1053,"slug":1054,"category":806,"order":1055},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1057,"slug":1058,"category":608,"order":1055},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1060,"slug":1061,"category":806,"order":1062},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1064,"slug":1065,"category":608,"order":1062},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1067,"slug":1068,"category":806,"order":1069},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1071,"slug":1072,"category":608,"order":1069},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1074,"slug":1075,"category":806,"order":1076},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1078,"slug":1079,"category":608,"order":1076},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1081,"slug":1082,"category":806,"order":1083},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1085,"slug":1086,"category":608,"order":1083},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1088,"slug":1089,"category":806,"order":1090},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1092,"slug":1093,"category":608,"order":1090},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1095,"slug":1096,"category":806,"order":1097},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1099,"slug":1100,"category":608,"order":1097},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1102,"slug":1103,"category":806,"order":1104},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1106,"slug":1107,"category":608,"order":1104},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1109,"slug":1110,"category":806,"order":1111},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1113,"slug":1114,"category":608,"order":1111},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1116,"slug":1117,"category":806,"order":1118},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1120,"slug":1121,"category":608,"order":1118},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1123,"slug":1124,"category":806,"order":1125},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1127,"slug":1128,"category":608,"order":1125},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1130,"slug":1131,"category":806,"order":1132},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1134,"slug":1135,"category":608,"order":1132},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1137,"slug":1138,"category":806,"order":1139},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1141,"slug":1142,"category":608,"order":1139},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1144,"slug":1145,"category":806,"order":1146},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1148,"slug":1149,"category":608,"order":1146},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1151,"slug":1152,"category":806,"order":1153},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1155,"slug":1156,"category":608,"order":1153},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1158,"slug":1159,"category":806,"order":1160},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1162,"slug":1163,"category":608,"order":1160},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1165,"slug":1166,"category":806,"order":1167},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1169,"slug":1170,"category":608,"order":1167},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1172,"slug":1173,"category":806,"order":1174},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1176,"slug":1177,"category":608,"order":1174},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1179,"slug":1180,"category":806,"order":1181},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1183,"slug":1184,"category":608,"order":1181},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1186,"slug":1187,"category":806,"order":1188},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1190,"slug":1191,"category":608,"order":1188},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1193,"slug":1194,"category":806,"order":1195},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1197,"slug":1198,"category":608,"order":1195},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1200,"slug":1201,"category":806,"order":1202},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1204,"slug":1205,"category":608,"order":1202},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1207,"slug":1208,"category":806,"order":1209},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1211,"slug":1212,"category":608,"order":1209},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1214,"slug":1215,"category":806,"order":1216},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1218,"slug":1219,"category":608,"order":1216},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1221,"slug":1222,"category":806,"order":1223},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1225,"slug":1226,"category":608,"order":1223},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1228,"slug":1229,"category":806,"order":1230},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1232,"slug":1233,"category":608,"order":1230},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1235,"slug":1236,"category":806,"order":1237},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1239,"slug":1240,"category":608,"order":1237},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1242,"slug":1243,"category":806,"order":1244},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1246,"slug":1247,"category":608,"order":1244},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1249,"slug":1250,"category":806,"order":1251},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1253,"slug":1254,"category":608,"order":1251},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1256,"slug":1257,"category":806,"order":1258},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1260,"slug":1261,"category":608,"order":1258},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1263,"slug":1264,"category":806,"order":1265},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1267,"slug":1268,"category":608,"order":1265},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1270,"slug":1271,"category":806,"order":1272},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1274,"slug":1275,"category":608,"order":1272},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1277,"slug":1278,"category":806,"order":1279},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1281,"slug":1282,"category":608,"order":1279},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1284,"slug":1285,"category":806,"order":1286},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1288,"slug":1289,"category":608,"order":1286},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1291,"slug":1292,"category":806,"order":1293},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1295,"slug":1296,"category":608,"order":1293},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1298,"slug":1299,"category":806,"order":1300},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1302,"slug":1303,"category":608,"order":1300},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1305,"slug":1306,"category":806,"order":1307},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1309,"slug":1310,"category":608,"order":1307},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1312,"slug":1313,"category":806,"order":1314},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1316,"slug":1317,"category":608,"order":1314},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1319,"slug":1320,"category":806,"order":1321},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1323,"slug":1324,"category":608,"order":1321},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1326,"slug":1327,"category":806,"order":1328},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1330,"slug":1331,"category":608,"order":1328},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1333,"slug":1334,"category":806,"order":1335},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1337,"slug":1338,"category":608,"order":1335},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1340,"slug":1341,"category":806,"order":1342},"2016 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