[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2468},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":931,"library-sidebar-dao":1934,"library-sidebar-models":2236},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":917,"date":918,"description":919,"extension":920,"meta":921,"navigation":922,"order":923,"path":924,"seo":925,"seoDescription":919,"seoTitle":926,"slug":927,"stem":928,"__hash__":929,"_collection":930},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang.md","巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":913},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,71,74,77,80,83,86,89,92,95,98,101,104,107,110,113,116,119,122,125,128,131,134,137,140,143,146,149,152,155,158,161,164,167,170,173,176,179,182,185,188,191,194,197,200,203,206,209,212,215,218,221,224,227,230,233,236,239,242,245,248,251,254,257,260,263,266,269,272,275,278,281,284,287,290,293,296,299,302,305,308,311,314,317,320,323,326,329,332,335,338,341,344,347,350,353,356,359,362,365,368,371,374,377,380,383,386,389,392,395,403,406,409,412,415,418,421,424,427,430,433,436,439,442,445,448,451,454,457,460,463,466,469,472,475,478,481,484,487,490,493,496,499,502,505,508,511,514,517,520,523,526,529,532,535,538,541,544,547,550,553,556,559,562,565,568,571,574,577,580,583,586,589,592,595,598,601,604,607,610,613,616,619,622,625,628,631,634,637,640,643,646,649,652,655,658,661,664,667,670,673,676,679,682,685,688,691,694,697,700,703,706,709,712,715,718,721,724,727,730,733,736,739,742,745,748,751,754,757,760,763,766,769,772,775,778,781,784,787,790,793,796,799,802,805,808,811,814,817,820,823,826,829,832,835,838,841,844,847,850,853,856,859,862,865,868,871,874,877,880,883,886,889,892,895,898,901,904,907,910],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2011年查理罗斯专访",[14,15,16],"p",{},"2011 年8 月15 日",[14,18,19],{},"巴菲特接受了美国著名电视节目主持人查理·罗斯(Charlie Rose)的采访，访谈内容十分广泛，包括\"巴菲特税\"、美国的国债问题、欧洲债务危机、美国的房地产市场前景、巴菲特的接班人问题以及遗产问题。",[14,21,22],{},"英文原文及视频地址：https：\u002F\u002Fcharlierose.com\u002Fvideos\u002F14503",[14,24,25],{},"罗斯(主持人)：我们在内布拉斯加州奥马哈市和沃伦·巴菲特进行对话。和很多人一样，今天早晨我在纽约醒来后阅读《纽约时报》社论版，我发现了由巴菲特写的下面的专栏文章。这是一篇专栏文章，题目是《停止宠爱超级富豪》。以下是节选：\"我们的领导人要求我们共同作出牺牲，可是当他们提出这种要求的时候，他们'赦免'了我。我和我的那些超级富豪的朋友们核实了一下，发现他们原本期待悬在头上的达摩克利斯之剑会落下来，结果呢他们和我一样毫发无损。就在穷人和中产阶级在阿富汗为我们作战的时候，就在大多数美国人为生活而苦苦挣扎的时候，我们这些超级富豪们还在继续享受着我们非常的税收优惠政策。\" 巴菲特直接对刚刚任命的12 位国会超级委员会成员喊话，向他们概述了美国所面临的危险。\"美国人民正在迅速地失去对国会处理国家财政问题的能力的信任创造出自己的生存空间。只有快速有效地采取实际行动，才能阻止人民的怀疑情绪演变成绝望情绪。那种情绪是可以变成现实的。\"",[14,27,28],{},"他谈论支出，同时也谈论税收：\"这12 名议员的首要工作就是停止说一些即使富有的美国都不能实现的空",[14,30,31],{},"话。现在必须大把大把地存钱。\" 接下来他把话题转向了对富人征税方面。\"这12 名议员接下来的工作应该转向税收问题。我会让99.7%的纳税人的税率保持不变，我会延续当前对职工工资税2%的优惠政策。\" 他的论据是详细的。\"对那些收入在100 万美元以上的人来说(这样的人数在2009 年是236883 人)，我会当机立断提高收入超过100 万美元者的税率(当然包括红利和资本利得)。对于那些收入超过1000 万美元甚至更多的人(这样的人在2009 年有8274 个)，我会建议额外提高他们的税率。\" 那么事情就是这样。在人们就税收和支出问题展开政治大辩论的时候，世界上最富有的人之一，对他的国家说，像他这样的人应该多交税。 此刻沃伦·巴菲特和我在一起谈论他的专栏、美国经济、全球经济、赤字、债务以及他认为我们应对税收做些什么。 我很高兴和我的朋友沃伦·巴菲特再次谈话。 欢迎你。",[14,33,34],{},"巴菲特：见到你很高兴，查理。",[14,36,37],{},"罗斯：好的。这对你来说不是什么新鲜的想法。",[14,39,40],{},"巴菲特：是，它不是新想法。这种情况发生过3 次，当我在办公室检查，结果发现自己是一个纳税少的人，但这次我的失落感比平时要多一点。",[14,42,43],{},"罗斯：那么你有了更强的失落感，于是决定把你的核心想法写出来公之于众。",[14,45,46],{},"巴菲特：是啊，我们一直听到人们谈论共同牺牲什么的。请相信我，人们知道他们谈论的\"牺牲\"是什么意思。",[14,48,49],{},"我是说，在这个国家里到处有人在牺牲着什么，我们谈论的那些人他们牺牲的是已经得到的对未来某些权利的承诺。所以我决定到处走走，看看我的朋友们有没有受到\"共同牺牲\"号召的影响，他们和我一样正在享受着相当低的税率，而非常富有的人比为他们打扫办公室的人所交税款还少的例子不在少数。",[14,51,52],{},"罗斯：在过去1 年时间里，富人的税率有所下降，他们中更多的人有了更多的应税所得。",[14,54,55],{},"巴菲特：是的，哦，国税局公布统计数字。他们自1992 年开始就做这件事了。这个国家里大约有400 名最赚钱的人——这个数字每年都不一样。这些最赚钱的人的收入自1992 年以来增加到了5 倍。我不知道电视机前的听众中有多少人的收入增加到了5 倍。就在同一时期，他们的税率从29%多降到了21%多。",[14,57,58],{},"罗斯：你也赞成缩减开支。",[14,60,61],{},"巴菲特：必须的，查理。我们是一个非常非常富有的国家。我们人均GDP 接近48000 美元。如果我小时候你告诉我说这事会发生，我会认为你疯了。即使一个富有的国家也有极限，但我们曾经许下了未能实现的承诺，这是一个错误。但我们仍然对非常富的人实行低赋税政策。顺便提及的是，我的建议不会触及99.7%的纳税人的利益。我谈的是0.3%的美国人。现在国家要求我们作出牺牲，而我认为收入在100 万美元以上的人应该承担其中的一部分。",[14,63,64],{},"罗斯：你有什么方法？",[14,66,67],{},"巴菲特：哦，像我这样的超级富豪得到的真正低税率是在红利和资本利得上面。如果你看看国税局筛选出来的这些富豪，他们的资本利得自1992 年起到现在几乎翻了10 倍。他们的红利也差不多翻了10 倍。而他们的税率为15%，而且还没有工资税。现在工资税在政府收入中所占比重几乎和所得税一样。两者很接近，去年的工资税为8000 多万美元，而所得税大约为9000 万美元。这就是华盛顿政府的收入来源。说起来他们从我收入上面没有拿走一分的工资税。我这里有一张纳税申报单。",[14,69,70],{},"罗斯：我们接下来看看那张申报单。",[14,72,73],{},"巴菲特：我交的税最多为10 万美元。而我的那些超级富豪朋友们上缴的税最多也是10 万美元。这个税额对我的办公室工作人员打击很大很大。通常他们的配偶也有工作，这样的话他们的工资税就高达20 万美元。今年我们少交两个百分点的工资税，但一般情况下其税率也是15.3%。仅此一项就比资本利得或红利的税率高。",[14,75,76],{},"罗斯：你指出听众中一般人的税率——你办公室人员的一般应税所得的税率是36%。",[14,78,79],{},"巴菲特：是，36%。没人低于33%。顺便说一下，我们办公室收入最低的那个人的税率也比33%高。他们没有享受低税率政策。所以税率从33%到41%，平均而言是36%，而我上缴的税率只有17.4%，我认为这是一个优厚的税率。",[14,81,82],{},"罗斯：为什么会这样？",[14,84,85],{},"巴菲特：噢，如果你用钱来生钱的话，你被课的税就很低，资本利得税为15%。没有工资税。如果你是通过卖力气或者勤奋工作或者辛勤劳动而获得收入的话，你被征收的税率就会一路上扬。大多数中产阶级的所得税率要么是15%，要么是25%，但让他们真正受伤的是工资税，如果你把我从办公室人员中剔除出去的话，我们办公室人员平均的工资税率为36%。",[14,87,88],{},"罗斯：20%收入最低人群的税率又是多少？",[14,90,91],{},"巴菲特：穷人不交税。我是说有8000 多万名纳税人交税。顺便说一下，一些超级富豪不纳税，但这只是极个别的反常现象。但是中产阶级以及中产阶级偏上阶层的高税率在下降。",[14,93,94],{},"罗斯：有时候人们给出的论据是这样的，他们相信减税通常是好的经济政策，如果减税能够实实在在地带动经济扩张和经济增长的话。如果人们不交纳那么多税的话，他们就会去消费并创造出工作机会。如果人们交纳较高税负的话，他们就不会投资那么多了。",[14,96,97],{},"巴菲特：哦，我和投资者一起工作了60 年，他们中有小投资者，有大投资者，还有超大投资者。我的资本利得税率为39.9%、36%和25%，我还没听到有一个人对我这样说：\"查理，假如我在半夜三更给你打电话说：'查理，我有一个迫切的投资想法。'你的反应不是说：\"不管税率有多高，算了吧，我打算继续回去睡觉，因为资本利得税率太高了。\"不会的，你会这么说：\"快告诉我投资项目的名称，沃伦，最好在你改变主意之前就告诉我。\"你知道吗？还从来没有一个人拒绝和我一起投资。四五十年前当税率还相当高的时候我就运作资金，和我在一起搞投资和运作资金的人中没有一个人流露出丝毫的不愿意。",[14,99,100],{},"罗斯：还有其他的理由——现在就必须这么做吗？",[14,102,103],{},"巴菲特：嗯，我认为必须这么做。我认为人们对政府的运作方式特别是它在赤字到达上限那段时间里的运作方式感到特别特别地失望。我是说，只要我和人们聊天，他们就感到非常失望。来自星巴克的霍华德·舒尔茨就在前几天就此事写了一篇文章。所以，我想重要的是无论做什么都会在一定程度上恢复人们对政府能行这一事实的信心——我们不可能在一夜之间完全恢复。",[14,105,106],{},"同时我也认为公平是重要的，还有要抛弃那些不切实际的承诺。我不认为现在我们应该大幅度地削减开支。",[14,108,109],{},"我不认为我的税收观点能从根本上解决赤字缺口问题。不过我认为公平是重要的。我认为制定一个合理的长期计划是重要的，而让人们相信它则尤为重要，因为人们一般不相信来自国会的过时的东西。他们看得太多了。",[14,111,112],{},"罗斯：是不是因为站在你的立场上你想谈谈税收的现状。平衡和公平的现状。",[14,114,115],{},"巴菲特：我想是的。举例来说，我认为美国人民有权利知道像我这样的人交了多少税。但必须让他们知道未来承诺的真实性。必须让他们知道当经济变得脆弱时，政府有必要采取大规模的赤字政策。我是说，在经济学教育上，我们有很多东西要做。但现在就是做的时候。如果我们现在不做，如果这12 位刚刚被任命为超级委员会成员的人——如果他们提出让人很伤感的建议的话，你知道吗？美国民众受够了。",[14,117,118],{},"罗斯：国家怎么样？",[14,120,121],{},"巴菲特：不过，这个国家依然将会取得成功，相信我吧。我们将会抓住每个时机，机会最终会到来的。但我们在潜在产出方面、在我们应该给予人们机会方面浪费得太多。我是指，政府的工作就是治理。",[14,123,124],{},"罗斯：让我回到债务上限的讨论上来谈论一会吧。",[14,126,127],{},"巴菲特：让我们这么说吧，查理，你和我都同意离开这里的演播室之后到附近的跑道上开展撞车比赛，我打算开着我的车跑向跑道的一端，而你则跑向另一端，中间有一条线，无论是谁只要有胆怯的表现，则其净财产就归另外一人所有。你想玩吗？",[14,129,130],{},"罗斯：想玩。",[14,132,133],{},"巴菲特：你想玩什么取决于你认为我有多疯狂。那么如果我们到了跑道上，我们做些什么呢？你的净财产赌在了那条线上，而我的净财产也赌在了那条线上，我们的发动机正在嗡嗡作响。我向你做出的是这些挑衅姿态。",[14,135,136],{},"我试图看上去像疯了。而你也试图让我觉得你发疯了。我们两个都跳进车里，我们想都不想对方疯了。那么我们做些什么？就在引擎启动的时候，我拔掉方向盘扔到车外。现在你相信我是玩真的了吧？噢，博纳没有扔掉方向盘，麦康纳尔没有扔掉方向盘，但是他们身后有一群人在喊：\"扔掉方向盘啊，议长先生，要让那些人意识到我们不会同意任何决议，除非让他们按我们的想法去做。\"如果一个正常人去对付一个你认为可能不正常的人，当他们都拔掉方向盘的时候，你觉得他们疯了。你输了。顺便说一下，美国人民输了。",[14,138,139],{},"罗斯：接下来标准普尔卷了进来，美国主权信用遭到了降级。因为他们说美国国会看上去不能正常运转，也不能处理问题。你不同意降级？",[14,141,142],{},"巴菲特：百分百不同意。",[14,144,145],{},"罗斯：可是你清楚他们为什么作出这一决定吗？",[14,147,148],{},"巴菲特：噢，我清楚他们为什么那么做。格劳·希尔集团拥有标准普尔公司。我敢打赌如果他们在身边留有短期货币的话，那一定是国债。我不确切地知道那是怎么回事，但他们不会担心国债问题。我们可以印钞票。欧洲有17 个国家放弃了印钞票的权利，而他们不想放弃印钞票的权利。",[14,150,151],{},"罗斯：因为他们加入了欧元区。",[14,153,154],{},"巴菲特：是的，他们加入了欧元区，现在他们因为不能印钞票而遇到了可怕的问题。我们可以印钞票。与其说我们应该担心我们的政府不能正常运转，倒不如说我们应该担心可恶的印钞机不能正常运转。",[14,156,157],{},"罗斯：那么实际上你是说美国总是能够还上债的，因此它不应该下调它的3A 级？",[14,159,160],{},"巴菲特：是的，没错。",[14,162,163],{},"罗斯：是的。可是你怎么看待来自中国的批评？",[14,165,166],{},"巴菲特：噢，我确信他们还有点沾沾自喜呢。我是说，他们也应该批评一下，因为假如我是中国人并以这种方式或那种方式持有美国政府1 万多亿美元的国债的话，我对国债购买力的表现会非常担忧。我是说有权利要回我的1 万亿美元，而且我将会要回我的1 万亿美元。问题是到那时候它将买到什么？我们政府时常给你留下这样的印象，即如有必要的话他们就会求助于印钞机。如果他们印得多了，那么美元就会贬值，而且贬值得很厉害。",[14,168,169],{},"所以如果你持有一大堆美元的话，就如同中国人做的那样——我能明白你会对美国政府的那种做法感到不爽。",[14,171,172],{},"罗斯：你对美联储宣布维持低利率的做法怎么看？",[14,174,175],{},"巴菲特：哦，这是一个非常非常朴实的声明。我是指美联储说他们打算把低利率维持到2013 年的时候，他们其实是在说美国经济在那之前都不会很好。那是一个不同寻常的声明。我认为他们有可能是错的，我认为2013 年之前利率可以走高。",[14,177,178],{},"罗斯：你认为美国经济在那之前会好转吗？",[14,180,181],{},"巴菲特：是的，美国经济会好转起来的。我认为自2009 年夏季以来它一直在好转。一直好转到上个月。我是说我看到了70 多个行业的数据。本次重大衰退的不同寻常之处在于它在很大程度上是由房地产泡沫引起的。我是指，大约有67%的美国人拥有自己的住房。那些在股市最高点拥有22 万亿美元的人们眼睁睁地看着市值急剧缩水。它影响到了三分之二的美国家庭。它对美国经济产生了不可估量的影响，我们的经济不会大范围地回暖除非我们消化掉几年前因住房市场过热而建造的过量的空置房。我们正在这方面取得进展，日新月异。我是说，我们建造房屋的数量比我们组建家庭的数量要少了。家庭的数量必须超过住房构建的数量。这种情况在过去几年里一直在发生着，而且这恰恰是本应该发生的事情。实际上今天我读了一篇文章，里面说有人提议炸掉一些房子什么的。假如你炸掉100 万套房子的话，你也许就处于供需平衡了。我不赞成那么做，真的。如果12 岁的孩子们开始组成家庭的话，你也许就要加快家庭构建速度了。可是这两种情况都没发生。我们每天都会有新家庭形成。那被合并进人口统计饼图里了。",[14,183,184],{},"罗斯：你是说现在美国经济增长所面临的问题是住房和建筑",[14,186,187],{},"巴菲特：对。我们每个行业实际上或者说我们的70 多个行业正在一个季度比一个季度地好转，除了那些和住房市场关联的行业。但是住房远比建筑工人重要得多。在我看来，当我们重新开始建造100 万套住房的时候，失业率将会显著下降，因为那不仅仅关系到建筑工人，它还关系到我们的地毯工人(我们已经解雇了6000 名地毯工人)，还关系到我们的制砖工人。因此它关系到工人的上下岗。所以大规模的经济复苏——我们的公司利润已经有所恢复。我们的银行状况已经好转，现在的银行业处于良好的状态。我们在所有领域都有所好转。美国公司在多数领域表现出色。不过它在住宅建设领域表现不佳。除非我们消化掉多余的空置房，否则那一领域不会好转。但根据我的判断空置房的数量并不像很多人想的那么多，这就是为什么我说它可以在2013 年年中之前有所好转。",[14,189,190],{},"罗斯：下降到8%什么的？",[14,192,193],{},"巴菲特：我想是的。我想如果当房屋建造以百万为单位或以更快的速度建造时，我想我们将会看到下降到7%或者更低一点的水平。",[14,195,196],{},"罗斯：你和美国政府管理与预算办公室前主任彼得·奥斯泽格打了赌？",[14,198,199],{},"巴菲特：是的，不过我和他和解了。",[14,201,202],{},"罗斯：赌什么呢？",[14,204,205],{},"巴菲特：赌下次大选时空置率降到7.3%，我当时认为届时住房建设会回升。也许我错了。也许我是对的，不过我向你保证，当住房建设回到以100 万套甚至是200 万套，我们失业率将会大幅度地下降。",[14,207,208],{},"罗斯：在某一时刻会降到6%吗？",[14,210,211],{},"巴菲特：哦，当然会降到7%以下。",[14,213,214],{},"罗斯：在2013 年之前？",[14,216,217],{},"巴菲特：哦，我认为很可能会——美联储和我的看法不同。而且伯南克在那个问题上比我聪明多了。可是我们正在消化空置房。相对于人口我们的住房空置率从来没有这么低过——就我所知道的数据而言。这是对突然爆裂的房产泡沫的一次彻底纠正。",[14,219,220],{},"罗斯：那么在接下来的两年里为了增加家庭构成并减少建屋数量，我们有必要采取什么措施呢？",[14,222,223],{},"巴菲特：噢，我们在减少建屋数量方面做得相当不错。我们还没完成",[14,225,226],{},"罗斯：需求是其中的一个因素吧。",[14,228,229],{},"巴菲特：需求是一个因素，当我们在一两年前使用信用卡购房时，我们人为地刺激了一下需求。我认为那是一个错误的尝试。我是说它只会推迟最终复苏的到来。如果你在某方面做得过度——如果我有太多紫色的衣服，而且我经营一家服装店，那么我就淘汰那些紫色衣服——然后摆上人们需要的衣服，从头开始。我不计成本减价处理。例如，你可以让一大批有钱的移民进来，他们需要房子。我是说如果你为了让50 万必须拥有大笔净资产的移民入境而修改移民政策的话，你就会很快地解决问题。但问题会自然得到解决。资本主义制度正在解决这个问题。但在解决这个问题的时候我们是幸运的，而日本的人口在下降。我是说，如果他们的东西太多了，他们消化不掉。我们每天都在组成新家庭。本周末我的一个孙子要结婚，所以我们一直在组成新家庭。再说了我们组成新家庭的速度要快于我们造房子的速度。",[14,231,232],{},"罗斯：我们的经济是建立在内需基础之上的。",[14,234,235],{},"巴菲特：那当然。",[14,237,238],{},"罗斯：是，而中国正努力把需求从外部转到国内去。",[14,240,241],{},"巴菲特：是，他们在很长一段时间里将是一个强有力的出口型国家。",[14,243,244],{},"罗斯：当你观察经济增长时，第一个问题就是就业问题，但接下来还是经济增长率即GDP 增长率问题。你是如何看这个问题的呢？",[14,246,247],{},"巴菲特：我想它将会随着时间的流逝而有非常好的表现。我是说我们有200 多年的历史来证明同样的东西一直有效地运转。我出生于1930 年8 月30 日。那一天的道琼斯工业指数位于那年的高点，是242 点。它们会回来的，人们认为它们让我们正在进入经济衰退状态。接下来的几年发生了什么呢？4000 家银行倒闭，道琼斯指数跌到了41 点，就像今天的道指降到了2000 点一样。我父亲失去了他的工作，我们经历了一场\"沙尘暴\"。我们现在的情况比当年好6 倍呢。美国制度有效运转。它非常有效地运转，它偶尔有经济衰退。我是说我们有一自从国家形成之后大概有15 次经济衰退，而本次的情况特别严重，因为我们在美国民众最大的资产上产生了泡沫。",[14,249,250],{},"罗斯：你有过这样一个观点，我记得你好像说中国人口在1779 年左右的时候差不多是2.9 亿。美国当时的人口大概是400 万，而欧洲人口大概是5000 万。瞧瞧发生了什么。",[14,252,253],{},"巴菲特：瞧瞧发生了什么。我们没有人家聪明，我们没有人家勤奋，我们的自然资源也没有人家的丰富，我们拥有的只是一套有效运转的制度，而他们足够聪明会弄明白这一切的。",[14,255,256],{},"罗斯：可是还有一些有意思的东西也在发挥着作用，比如人口。所以中国或印度或巴西或其他地方因其庞大的人口而可能有更大的国内需求。",[14,258,259],{},"巴菲特：有人会争辩，说美国的竞争环境将会更加激烈。尽管我们有一套制度，但别人正在学习我们的制",[14,261,262],{},"度，同时他们也有一些我们所不具备的内在优势。",[14,264,265],{},"罗斯：是的，他们已经变得更加聪明了。",[14,267,268],{},"巴菲特：我是说假如你回头看50 年前的中国，那时的中国人和现在一样的聪明，他们和现在一样地努力工",[14,270,271],{},"作，但他们没有得到应有的成果。现在他们得到的成果令人惊叹。他们注意到了制度的重要性，但这对我们来说不是坏事。我是说这个世界根本就不是一个零和游戏的世界。我们想让周围的世界繁荣起来。我们将会卖给他们很多东西。大多数人并没有意识到我们出口占GDP 的比重在过去40 年里翻了一番。我们在出口方面变得更强了。只是我们的进口额比以前多多了。",[14,273,274],{},"罗斯：好的。不过说到了欧洲，发生在欧洲的主权债务危机对我们会产生什么影响呢？",[14,276,277],{},"巴菲特：噢，问题是我也不知道。我不知道那里到底发生了什么。我知道17 个加入欧洲货币联盟的国家放弃了印刷自己钞票的权利。那可是一个重大的决定啊。我希望美国永远别那么干。我是说它改变了游戏规则。",[14,279,280],{},"罗斯：实际上印钞票是为了控制自己的财源。",[14,282,283],{},"巴菲特：是的。他们把自己拴在了一起。他们把自己的信用卡交给彼此，然后说\"让我们出发吧。\"有些人做得比别人好，而有些人做得比别人差。",[14,285,286],{},"罗斯：那他们应该解散欧元区吗？",[14,288,289],{},"巴菲特：我不知道。我是说情况很复杂。你必须就一两件事作出决定。你必须决定这些成员国是不是真的打算一起行动，有些成员国陷入了大麻烦，因为他们需要很多钱。他们必须偿还旧债务。所以没人有义务借钱给这个国家或者那个国家。没人有义务借钱给他们。没人借钱给美国，我们自己印钱。但问题不止这些。如果希腊缺德拉克，他们会发生严重的通货膨胀和货币贬值等问题。但是他们在还债方面不会存在问题。他们放弃了这个权利。现在或者是较弱的国家在某些重大问题上行动一致——我认为这是非常非常困难的一件事——或者从根本上说是那些非常强大的伙伴，我们谈的是德国，他们不得不说\"我愿意照顾一直使用我信用卡的妻弟。\"",[14,291,292],{},"罗斯：那就是他们到目前为止所说的话。",[14,294,295],{},"巴菲特：嗯，他们有一半是这么说的。我是说这就是他们的问题。如果一家银行发生挤兑，而且银行前面有 10 个人排队，联邦存款保险公司不能保证那支队伍不会维持在10 个人。你要么把那10 个人弄走，要么你会看到队伍扩大到100 个人。迄今为止，在欧洲他们不断地谈论10 个人的队伍，还有更多的人在队伍后面徘徊，所以他们没有把队伍弄走，而当银行发生挤兑时，队伍只能越来越长，除非人们得到非常迅速的照顾。",[14,297,298],{},"罗斯：但对美国和亚洲都有什么影响呢？",[14,300,301],{},"巴菲特：我不知道该怎么回答这个问题。我并不认为它们的前景就必然那么暗淡。影响肯定会有的，但欧洲不会离我们而去。我们卖给欧洲大量产品。它是一个巨大的市场。他们不会离我们而去，工厂不会离我们而去，农场不会离我们而去。那里的经济只是暂时性地有点糟糕而已。",[14,303,304],{},"罗斯：你以前对我和别人都说过伯克希尔是你作画的画布。它是你的杰作。",[14,306,307],{},"巴菲特：哦，我不知道是不是杰作，反正是画布。",[14,309,310],{},"罗斯：那么如果今天你看看伯克希尔这幅画并挑挑毛病的话，会是什么毛病呢？",[14,312,313],{},"巴菲特：噢，一路走来我犯了很多错，所以我留下了很多笔触，给我一点点能擦掉它们的东西吧，无论什么东西都行，我会擦掉的。所以我犯了错，可是我预计自己会犯错的，而且还将继续犯错误。",[14,315,316],{},"罗斯：因为除非你去冒险，否则你是不会犯错误的。",[14,318,319],{},"巴菲特：噢，当然了，再说错误是游戏的一部分。我是说就像你挥棒击球一样，我不想听上去我对伯克希尔感觉良好。我是说，和我有生意往来的人们，我们提出我们的经济原则，很多年很多年以前我就提出了这些经济原则。我们没有改变它们。我是说我们尽力按照那些原则运作。那不意味着我们尽善尽美。假如你拥有一家26 万人的公司的话，我向你保证现在的公司就有人做我不希望他们做的事情。你不可能在一个拥有26 万人口的城市里没有一座监狱。但总的来说我觉得我们公司有一种文化，而我认为任何其他大型上市公司都不具备这一文化，而我认为它之所以经久不衰是因为它被彻底地灌输进了经理、股东、董事和公司每个人的脑海里。所以我就是这么看伯克希尔的。",[14,321,322],{},"罗斯：在某种意义上说，你已经把伯克希尔打造得如此强大，以至于没有你的话它依然存在，所以假如我说你最担心的事情是你离开后那种文化能否保持现在的样子不变的话，我错了吗？",[14,324,325],{},"巴菲特：是的，我不担心这个问题。我曾担心过好几年，所以我做了一大堆我自认为可以确保伯克希尔未来的事情。但问题总是存在。你已经看到了各种各样大公司的垮台始于 罗斯：你曾经对我和别的人说过你必须让你的公司成为一家防白痴的公司，因为在某个时候某个白痴将会经营它。",[14,327,328],{},"巴菲特：是的。嗯，现在也许就是这种情形。",[14,330,331],{},"罗斯：我记得有人说过，你最担心的是伯克希尔在你离开20 年之后会不会解体。",[14,333,334],{},"巴菲特：我不担心，但我关心这个问题。因为我关心这个问题，所以我把一切都安排妥当了，我认为我的这个安排几乎可以保证伯克希尔在我离开20 年之后的状况比现在还要好很多。",[14,336,337],{},"罗斯：你现在的接班人是谁？",[14,339,340],{},"巴菲特：假如我今晚或明天早晨死了的话，董事会用不了一小时时间就会宣布我的接班人。他们准确地知道他是谁，而且他们都同意了。",[14,342,343],{},"罗斯：可是6 个月之后的情况可能会发生变化的。",[14,345,346],{},"巴菲特：6 个月之后的情况可能会发生变化。但只是可能会变化。我是说那个人可能会死掉。",[14,348,349],{},"罗斯：是有一群人还是只有一个人？",[14,351,352],{},"巴菲特：不。有几个人选，但获得大家认可的只有一个人。我是说，没有任何理由等到现任CEO 离开的那一天，董事会才开始考虑谁应该是新任的CEO，我是说假如那种情况发生的话，那就是他们的失职。",[14,354,355],{},"罗斯：索科尔事件让你感到忧心忡忡是因为它和判断力有关吗？",[14,357,358],{},"巴菲特：嗯，这件事让我感到担忧。我不知道它是不是我职业生涯中最让我担忧的事情，但它确实出现了。",[14,360,361],{},"罗斯：当你考虑究竟会留下什么遗产的时候，你说你的遗产是伯克希尔，它超越了你的家庭和慈善事业。",[14,363,364],{},"巴菲特：是的，它们让我心满意足。",[14,366,367],{},"罗斯：你引用了克里斯多佛·雷恩爵士的话，我想是他建造了圣保罗大教堂。",[14,369,370],{},"巴菲特：没错。他也葬在了那里。",[14,372,373],{},"罗斯：如果你去那里的话，他为自己写的墓志铭会是什么？",[14,375,376],{},"巴菲特：我将会稍微解释一下他的碑文。\"如果你在寻找我的纪念碑，看看你周围吧。\"我是说那应该是我们看待这个国家的方式。我是指几年前在这个国家发生的事情就是一座让人民景仰的丰碑。这真是不可思议。",[14,378,379],{},"请想象一下，如果你愿意回到1790 年的话，你说：\"我想为这个新国家建造一座纪念碑，我把它送给你，而你要想象一下这个国家在2011 年的样子。\"我不认为任何人会梦想到今天这个样子。当我飞越这个国家的时候我就想，假如你真的要寻找这个国家的纪念碑的话，假如你要寻找我们建国之父们的纪念碑的话，看看你周围吧。",[14,381,382],{},"罗斯：现在你担心我们国家存在着某种威胁。不是因为制度不对，不是因为制度不够强大，而是你担心发生的事情如果不能得到解决的话，将会让我们的国家变得不那么强大。",[14,384,385],{},"巴菲特：对。我想我们正在接受考验，查理，是的。但是我们在内战期间接受过考验。我们在大萧条期间接受过考验。我们在1941 年12 月7 日接受过考验。我们在2001 年9 月11 日接受过考验。我们还将接受考验。",[14,387,388],{},"而本次金融危机就是一次考验。我们将会经受住考验，但我宁愿现在继续从事战胜它们的工作。",[14,390,391],{},"2011 年9 月30 日",[14,393,394],{},"在节目开播20 周年之际，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司董事长沃伦巴菲特，就回购公司股票以及他提出的超级富豪应缴纳更高税款的提议展开讨论。",[14,396,397],{},[398,399,400],"a",{"href":400,"rel":401},"https:\u002F\u002Fcharlierose.com\u002Fvideos\u002F24268",[402],"nofollow",[14,404,405],{},"罗斯：今晚，我们庆祝本节目开播20 周年。没错，20 年前这个节目正式开播。在这20 年里，没有哪位嘉宾比沃伦·巴菲特更有趣、更让人期待。他的经历引人入胜，作为一名投资者，他取得了非凡的成就，其执掌的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司也同样成绩斐然，这让他闻名全球。最近，他因对美国银行进行重大投资而成为新闻焦点。他还宣布了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股票回购计划。或许，近期最受关注的还是他提出的富人应多缴税的主张。奥巴马总统显然对此表示关注，并将其纳入了税法改革建议中，称之为\"巴菲特规则\"。沃伦·巴菲特此刻正在纽约，我们非常高兴他能来到节目现场。他一直是我们节目出色的嘉宾，同时也是我的好友。欢迎你，沃伦·巴菲特。",[14,407,408],{},"巴菲特：谢谢你，查理。",[14,410,411],{},"罗斯：你最近宣布要回购，或者说已经启动了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股票的回购程序。有些人对此感到惊讶，因为你曾在那封著名的股东信中写道：我不会这么做。",[14,413,414],{},"巴菲特：我没那么说过。我是说，只有当你认为股票的售价低于其内在价值时，才应该回购股票。而内在价值并非精确数值，只是一种估算。",[14,416,417],{},"罗斯：你这么说的部分原因是，你认为人们回购股票不一定只是为了提升股价表现，对吧？",[14,419,420],{},"巴菲特：有时候他们是想支撑股价。谁知道他们的动机是什么呢。但对我来说，动机只有一个。如果我认为自己是以折价买入公司的业务，那我觉得这对所有股东都有好处。而且我认为在回购前应该告知大家。就好比你是我的合伙人，你想退出，而我想买下你的份额，如果我觉得买价太低，就应该告诉你。现在股票价格由证券交易所设定。大约10-11 年前，我曾认为伯克希尔的股票明显低于其业务价值，于是我们宣布可能会回购。结果股价随即上涨……",[14,422,423],{},"罗斯：没错，所以你就没回购。",[14,425,426],{},"巴菲特：但这次，如果市场表现疲软，我们可能会大量回购股票。不过我想说的是，只有当我们认为回购股票是在为继续持股的股东着想时，才会这么做。",[14,428,429],{},"罗斯：因为你认为构成伯克希尔这些业务的内在价值被低估了。",[14,431,432],{},"巴菲特：其内在价值高于股价，明显高于股价。虽然这不是一个精确的数值，但明显高于当前股价。",[14,434,435],{},"罗斯：你提出以账面价值加10%的价格回购。",[14,437,438],{},"巴菲特：我说过这(1.1PB)是我们愿意支付的上限，实际价格由市场决定。所以，如果下周市场大幅下跌，伯克希尔的股价可能会比这个价格便宜很多。我并没有以任何方式支撑股价，只是设定了我们愿意支付的最高价格。因为超过这个价格，虽然我可能仍觉得股票便宜，但我希望买到的股票有明显的折价。我希望通过回购股票，让继续持股的股东受益。",[14,440,441],{},"罗斯：你们现在有多少现金，470 亿到500 亿美元？",[14,443,444],{},"巴菲特：现金有所减少，查理。我们花了一些钱，但可以说我们的现金很充裕。",[14,446,447],{},"罗斯：你有没有设定一个现金储备的下限，以防出现绝佳的投资机会，这样你就能随时出手抓住机会？",[14,449,450],{},"巴菲特：有。我们的合并现金储备不会低于200 亿美元。",[14,452,453],{},"罗斯：现金，没错。所以你准备好花掉超过200 亿……",[14,455,456],{},"巴菲特：是的，超过200 亿美元用于回购股票。我们能花多少钱取决于时间跨度，因为我们一直在盈利，盈利会不断补充资金。在回购这件事上，没有时间限制，也没有金额限制，只有估值方面的限制，以及维持一定现金水平的限制。",[14,458,459],{},"罗斯：据说有人认为伯克希尔A 股的每股资产价值接近13-15 万美元。",[14,461,462],{},"巴菲特：我不太清楚具体数字。我只知道它超过账面价值的110%。我们有一些非常出色的业务，也有一些表现没那么好的。但一些重要的业务，真的非常优秀，它们现在的价值比我们收购时高得多。",[14,464,465],{},"罗斯：你为什么不卖掉那些表现不太好的业务呢？",[14,467,468],{},"巴菲特：我就是不会那么做。打个比方，如果我有10 个孩子，其中一个有点迟钝，我不会把他送去领养。",[14,470,471],{},"罗斯：所以你对这些业务就是这种态度。",[14,473,474],{},"巴菲特：是的。除非这些业务长期亏损，或者存在严重的劳资问题，而且我已经在年度报告里提",[14,476,477],{},"了30 年。人们把业务卖给我，卖完之后还努力为我工作。生活中并非事事完美，我不会因为业务表现欠佳就抛弃它们。当然，如果情况糟透了，我们就得退出。",[14,479,480],{},"罗斯：这是否意味着，奥马哈的这位\"股神\"认为现在投资机会不多呢？",[14,482,483],{},"巴菲特：这种说法不对。实际上，我们昨天上午才完成回购程序相关文件的审批。所以我们已经开始买入一些股票。之后是否大量回购，取决于股价。只要符合我们设定的条件，我们就打算继续回购。这与其他因素无",[14,485,486],{},"关……即便我活到100 岁，头脑还清醒，我也希望能继续做这件事。",[14,488,489],{},"罗斯：实际上，上个季度你在普通股上的投资是不是用了大约40 亿美元？",[14,491,492],{},"巴菲特：不是。实际上截至9 月30 日的第三季度，我们在普通股上的净投资约为40 亿美元。",[14,494,495],{},"罗斯：今年到目前为止，在普通股投资上的花费大概是80 亿美元？",[14,497,498],{},"巴菲特：差不多。",[14,500,501],{},"罗斯：这表明你买入股票，是因为你看好美国，看好这些公司，并且你相信……",[14,503,504],{},"巴菲特：这些都是美国公司。虽然有些公司在海外有不少业务，但本质上还是美国公司。顺便说一句，我们正在投资70 亿美元……",[14,506,507],{},"罗斯：你提到了这一点。在基础设施方面……",[14,509,510],{},"巴菲特：当我们回购自己的股票时，实际上是在加大对一系列美国公司的关注和投入。如果回购股票，我们的股东在BNSF 铁路、中美能源以及GEICO 保险等公司的持股比例将增加。公司的整体价值不变，但股份数量减少，每股所代表的权益就会增加。",[14,512,513],{},"罗斯：乔治·索罗斯上周在CNBC 表示：我认为美国不是在未来某个时候可能陷入衰退，而是现在已经处于衰退之中。Michael Spence 和克鲁格曼也认为，美国有50%的可能性再次陷入衰退。你不同意这种观点，是吗？",[14,515,516],{},"巴菲特：我不同意。我关注着70 多家公司的情况，我可以告诉你，上周有一条铁路运输了19.3 万辆车皮的货物。从球童用品销售和珠宝销售数据来看，我们有三家不同的珠宝业务公司，四家不同的家具业务公司，虽然增长速度不快，但并没有出现下滑。除了我之前说的，住房建设依然毫无起色。",[14,518,519],{},"罗斯：住房建设什么时候能好转呢？",[14,521,522],{},"巴菲特：当新建家庭数量超过新建房屋数量，使房屋库存下降……",[14,524,525],{},"罗斯：有没有什么好办法来实现这一点？",[14,527,528],{},"巴菲特：办法就是减少新建房屋的数量。目前，美国的房屋开工数量(包括公寓)约为50 多万套。如果新建家庭数量超过新建房屋数量，就能使房屋库存恢复平衡。我不知道具体时间，但六七年前我们的做法却恰恰相反，当时新建房屋数量超过了新建家庭数量，结果房屋供过于求。这其实就是供需关系的问题。前几年，我们建造的房屋相对于家庭数量太多了，现在每天新建家庭数量超过新建房屋数量，供需关系会逐渐恢复平衡。我不确定具体时间，但当新建房屋数量回到每年100 万套左右时，我认为失业率会大幅下降。",[14,530,531],{},"罗斯：也许会降到6%？那时经济会全面复苏吗？",[14,533,534],{},"巴菲特：那时肯定会看到经济明显好转，非常接近全面复苏。",[14,536,537],{},"罗斯：你认为经济能恢复到2008 年以前的水平吗？",[14,539,540],{},"巴菲特：在一定程度上，之前我们经历了一段不可持续的经济繁荣期，建造了过多房屋，还把房子卖给了无力偿还贷款的人，各种问题层出不穷。就好比我们在酒吧里纵情狂欢，现在我不确定是否要完全回到过去那种状态，但我们得从这场\"宿醉\"中恢复过来。",[14,542,543],{},"罗斯：但与此同时，你最近对美国银行进行了一笔重大投资。有人说，美国银行经营困难的部分原因是其承担的抵押贷款业务规模过大。",[14,545,546],{},"巴菲特：没错。在那段经济繁荣期，美国银行和其他许多金融机构一样，犯了很多错误，其中也包括房利美和房地美这两家由联邦政府运营的机构。它们确实犯了错，我也犯过错。现在的管理层正在为此付出代价，努力解决上一任管理层遗留的问题，这需要大量时间。目前问题还没有解决，未来仍需时日。但这并不影响我对它的信心。这只是商业的一部分。做了蠢事，就得想办法弥补。",[14,548,549],{},"罗斯：时间一直是你最好的伙伴，不是吗？",[14,551,552],{},"巴菲特：没错，时间很重要。你知道，1970 年代中期，GEICO 保险陷入困境；1960 年代中期，美国运通也遇到麻烦。但这两家公司是我最成功的投资案例之一。看待这些公司，你得有长远眼光，预测未来5-10 年的发展。其实，看待美国经济也是如此。从长期来看，美国经济非常出色。它会复苏的，就像盖可保险公司和美国运通一样。美国银行也会解决自身问题，虽然过程会很痛苦，未来很长一段时间都会有相关负面报道。这不是三五个月就能解决的事，但现在有人在努力解决问题，现任管理层Brian Moynihan 布莱恩·莫伊尼汉并没有制造这些问题，他们正在努力应对。而且美国银行的核心业务非常出色。",[14,554,555],{},"罗斯：在即将到来的政治博弈中，共和党和民主党争论的焦点之一将是削减开支，这在一定程度上有助于缓解赤字问题，与着眼未来的经济增长战略之间的平衡。你如何看待这个问题呢？",[14,557,558],{},"巴菲特：未来美国经济会实现增长。美国拥有创新精神和资本主义的活力，这些因素会推动经济持续发展。",[14,560,561],{},"很多时候，人们谈论经济增长，实际上指的是制造通货膨胀，但这并非经济增长的本质。所以我并不担心美国人均国内生产总值的长期增长。美国经济会周期性地经历衰退，这次衰退尤为严重，因为之前的经济繁荣期过于疯狂。我们现在正在为此付出代价。",[14,563,564],{},"罗斯：美国联邦政府或美联储是否需要采取措施刺激经济增长呢？",[14,566,567],{},"巴菲特：我们已经在疯狂地刺激经济了。近年来，美国每年的财政赤字接近国内生产总值的10%，这是相当大规模的刺激措施。这可不只是所谓的\"经济刺激法案\"，整个财政政策都是一种刺激手段。货币政策方面，我们将利率降至零，还让美联储积累了大量储备金。所以刺激足够了……",[14,569,570],{},"罗斯：但美联储内部对于下一步行动和重点方向存在争议。",[14,572,573],{},"巴菲特：我觉得这没那么重要。关键是美联储在三年前采取的行动，如果当时决策失误，我们现在就得付出巨大代价。但现在他们的政策手段已经用得差不多了。美联储主席可能不同意我的观点，但在我看来，货币政策已经发挥到极致了。虽然它发挥了一定作用，但我认为现在再采取什么行动，也很难改变经济复苏的进程。他正在实施\"扭转操作\"，试图降低长期利率。现在利率已经很低了，短期利率几乎为零，长期利率也相当低。所以我觉得在利率方面再做文章，对经济不会有太大影响。",[14,575,576],{},"罗斯：我刚和一些到华盛顿与美国国务卿和财政部长会面的中国商人交谈过，他们对中国的通货膨胀问题有些担忧。",[14,578,579],{},"巴菲特：是的，中国会面临一些通胀压力，有时可能还会比较大。看看美国这些年的情况就知道了，我出生时的1 美元，如今价值大概只有6 美分。从那时到现在，美元贬值了约15 倍。如果1930 年有人告诉我父亲这个情况，我不确定他还会不会要孩子，他可能会觉得世界末日要来了。但实际上，后来的情况还不错。在同一时期，美国人均实际国内生产总值增长了6 倍。我并不完全反对通胀，适度的通胀在经济繁荣时是正常的，但有时通胀可能会失控，这就需要采取措施应对。不过，大多数时候，这些问题并非世界末日，可我们总觉得好像天要塌了。就像我之前说的，1930 年8 月30 日我出生那天，道琼斯指数达到了当年的最高点242 点，之后一路暴跌至41 点。我母亲看到这种情况，肯定愧疚极了。但你看，当时美国失业率高达25%，各种问题层出不穷。但这个国家挺过来了，从珍珠港事件的打击中恢复过来，也从各种困境中走了出来，现在同样如此。",[14,581,582],{},"罗斯：那么\"巴菲特规则\"在经济复苏过程中能起到什么作用呢？",[14,584,585],{},"巴菲特：我认为\"巴菲特规则\"对于促使人们做出必要的牺牲非常重要。我们即将告诉民众，一些承诺可能需要调整。这些民众在生活中并没有太多的安全保障，他们和我不一样。如果遇到支付问题，他们没办法像我一样卖掉一些股票来解决。所以，当我们把政府支出从GDP 的25%左右降下来时，需要全体美国民众勒紧裤腰带共渡难关。我发现，有一小部分超级富豪，年收入超过100 万美元，他们的税率却很低，比如我自己的税率是17%。在过去几个月里，我和很多人聊过，其中一些人属于著名的\"福布斯400 富豪榜\"成员，他们平均每人年收入超过2.2亿美元，但税率甚至比我还低。这可是相当高的收入，对吧？",[14,587,588],{},"罗斯：他们税率低主要是因为适用15%资本利得税率吗？",[14,590,591],{},"巴菲特：没错，这是主要因素，但股息税率也是15%。有很多超级富豪缴纳的税款远低于正常水平，但也有不少人并非如此。不过，确实有相当一部分富豪税率过低。我认为，要求3 亿美国人勒紧裤腰带，却对这部分富豪网开一面，这是个严重的错误。",[14,593,594],{},"罗斯：但我认为，推行\"巴菲特规则\"，是因为这能为美国国税局带来更多收入。从经济层面有实际价值，还是因为美国体系的基本公平性才是关键所在？毕竟当要求民众做出牺牲时，必须让他们坚信国家的政策是公平的。",[14,596,597],{},"巴菲特：两者兼而有之。但我认为第二个原因更为重要。据我估计，如果实施最低税率，可能会影响一部分超级富豪。粗略估算，这每年可能会增加200 亿美元的税收。我觉得这个估算并非不切实际。虽然每年200 亿美元对于约1 万亿美元的财政赤字来说只是杯水车薪，但这意味着2000 万个家庭每年每户能多出1000 美元。毕竟政府得想办法增加财政收入。",[14,599,600],{},"谁也不知道最终会让大家如何做出牺牲，但如果要在让2000 万个家庭每户多拿出1000 美元，和对约5 万名高收入、低税率的富豪征税之间做选择，我更倾向于向像我这样的人征税来获取这200 亿美元。",[14,602,603],{},"罗斯：美国众议院议长John Boehner 称，总统采纳这一想法是在搞\"阶级斗争\"，对此你怎么看？",[14,605,606],{},"巴菲特：\"阶级斗争\"其实一直都存在。看看那400 位顶级富豪，他们的平均家庭年收入从4000 万美元涨到",[14,608,609],{},"了2 亿美元，而税率却从29%左右降至21%，\"阶级斗争\"显而易见。只不过在这场\"斗争\"中，我所属的阶层赢了，而且优势巨大，这简直是一场一边倒的胜利。",[14,611,612],{},"罗斯：你把问题看得很透彻。",[14,614,615],{},"巴菲特：看看如今的美国就知道了，超级富豪们在经济危机中并未受到太大影响。顺便说一句，如果有人作为CEO、运动员或其他身份，年收入达到500 万、1000 万，甚至2000 万、3000 万美元，并且按正常税率纳税，税率大概在35%左右。在和许多超级富豪交流后，我坚信，确保年收入在100 万美元及以上的人，税率维持在35%左右，才是最好的办法。",[14,617,618],{},"罗斯：如果以100 万美元为界限，会有多少人受到影响呢？是所有年收入超过100 万美元的人都会受影响",[14,620,621],{},"吗？还是说只是特定的一部分人？",[14,623,624],{},"巴菲特：不是所有人。有两种方式来实施。一种是统一提高税率，这样所有高收入群体都会受到",[14,626,627],{},"影响，大概涉及25 万人，比如把税率提高5 个百分点之类的。这是一种可行的办法。但在和许多富豪交流后，我认为更公平的做法是，针对那些通过各种手段将税率降至15%的人，设定最低税率。我是17%，还有人甚至低于10%。我估计这样会涉及约5 万人。我没有精确的数据，可能是7 万人，也可能是4 万人，但肯定不是1 万人，不会是全部 25 万人，大概是其中的5 万人。这样一来，他们的整体税率会提高到30%以上。",[14,629,630],{},"罗斯：那你收入中按15%或17%税率纳税的部分占比有多少呢？因为你也有一些普通收入，比如你给自己设定的年薪是10 万美元左右。",[14,632,633],{},"巴菲特：占比很大。我还有一些利息收入之类的。但是这得看具体年份，查理。前几年有段时间，我通过持有房利美和房地美的抵押贷款证券赚了不少钱，获得了大量利息收入，同时还获得了一笔巨额资本利得。顺便说一句，这些钱在企业层面之前并未纳税。我看过相关的讨论，但那些说法并不适用于我的情况。几年前，我投资一些韩国小公司的股票也赚了不少钱，我可能跟你提过这事。那些公司在美国无需缴纳所得税。",[14,635,636],{},"罗斯：有人认为需要进行税制改革，因为这样企业就会把海外留存的资金转回国内。目前企业不把资金转回国内，是因为他们觉得会面临双重征税。你怎么看待这种观点？",[14,638,639],{},"巴菲特：企业确实希望把海外资金转回国内。这些资金在全球一些地方享受很低的税率，有些是因为当地制造业情况，这种低税率有一定合理性，但也有部分是人为因素造成的。他们希望能像五六年前那样，有一次性的资金回流政策，把钱转回国内。此外，我们持有一些这样的公司的股票，这些公司有大量资金滞留在海外。如果允许它们把资金转回国内，且只需缴纳很少的税款，你觉得它们会怎么做？它们肯定还想继续在海外赚钱。",[14,641,642],{},"罗斯：所以你认为它们不会把资金转回国内？",[14,644,645],{},"巴菲特：如果允许它们几乎不缴税或者只缴5%的税就把资金转回国内，它们会这么做。但它们会说，这样太好了，因为我们把钱转回美国了，还会进行投资。但实际情况是：天哪，在海外税率只有5%或10%的地方，我们能赚更多钱，那就继续把钱投到海外，在那里建更多工厂。所以这是一把双刃剑。如果设定较低的资金回流税率，会刺激企业把更多生产活动转移到海外，在海外赚取更多利润，因为这样能降低它们的整体税率。",[14,647,648],{},"罗斯：美国企业目前持有大量现金，他们给出了几个理由。一是认为监管政策导致的，二是对股市和税收结构的不确定性缺乏信心。你认同这些说法吗？",[14,650,651],{},"巴菲特：不认同。我认为原因是他们找不到满意的投资项目，也看不到某些产品的市场需求。如果我看不到地毯或砖块的销路，我是不会去投资建更多地毯厂或砖厂的。",[14,653,654],{},"罗斯：我们说的不只是与房地产行业相关的企业。美国有很多企业都持有大量现金，他们声称对未来缺乏信心，所以才这么做。你对此有何看法？",[14,656,657],{},"巴菲特：我对未来很有信心，他们也应该有信心。大多数美国企业在有形净资产上都获得了不错的回报，美国企业的经营状况其实还不错。",[14,659,660],{},"罗斯：如果他们把资金用于投资，雇佣更多员工，情况会好很多。",[14,662,663],{},"巴菲特：没错，但他们得找到合适的投资项目。必须承认，据我所知，没有哪家企业手握资金，又看到了明智的投资方向，却还把钱闲置着。",[14,665,666],{},"罗斯：所以，你基本上认为美国经济目前的问题在于，创造私营企业就业岗位的美国企业，找不到明智的资金投资方向，对吗？",[14,668,669],{},"巴菲特：是的，主要是缺乏市场需求。凯恩斯可能会说是我的问题。但显然不是……他会说政府需要进一步加大刺激力度，因为只有政府能……",[14,671,672],{},"罗斯：保罗·克鲁格曼也是这么认为的。",[14,674,675],{},"巴菲特：没错。他们或许有一定道理，但我们已经采取了很多刺激措施，也看到了一些效果。在我看来，进一步刺激会有一定作用，但考虑到一开始我们就实施了占10%GDP 的刺激政策，后续再刺激的效果能有多大呢？",[14,677,678],{},"罗斯：你认为这种需求不足、缺乏明智投资机会的情况，部分原因是现任政府对经济的管理方式导致的吗？",[14,680,681],{},"巴菲特：我觉得这是经济从严重危机中复苏的正常过程。就像我们之前说的，经济就像生病住院的病人。之前我们经历了一场严重的经济泡沫，体现在很多方面，尤其是房地产领域。美国住宅房地产总值曾高达22 万亿美元，在房地产市场高峰期，这是美国民众净资产的重要组成部分。经济遭受了沉重打击，我们正在恢复过程中。",[14,683,684],{},"未来我们会有更多投资机会。",[14,686,687],{},"罗斯：所以你支持总统，还在纽约为他举办了筹款活动，因为你认为他和他的政府为促进美国经济增长做出了正确决策，你觉得没有什么具体决策让你无法支持总统吗？",[14,689,690],{},"巴菲特：总体上是这样。查理，跟你说，我们有一家叫Marman 的公司，不是BNSF 铁路公司，这家公司生产铁路油罐车，还经营罐车出租。我们在路易斯安那州的亚历山大市开展业务，在过去12 个月里，产量增长了三四倍。和一年前相比，我们在亚历山大市雇佣了更多员工来生产油罐车，而且产量还在逐步增加。我们还看到油田对起重机的使用需求也在增加。这种积极的变化随处可见……",[14,692,693],{},"罗斯：但你和其他人有所不同。普遍的看法是，上次支持总统的大多数华尔街人士这次不再支持他了，杰",[14,695,696],{},"米·戴蒙就是其中之一。这些人面对的是同样的经济形势。",[14,698,699],{},"巴菲特：我觉得杰米不会说经济没有好转。事实上，我好像看到过他明确表示……",[14,701,702],{},"罗斯：不，他说他的银行经营状况在改善，他对银行的情况很满意。但据我们所知，他并不支持总统。",[14,704,705],{},"巴菲特：这也不一定。",[14,707,708],{},"罗斯：但很多华尔街人士，至少你得承认，很多人基于同样的经济数据，却认为政府的管理并不出色，而且他们也不像你这么看好经济形势。他们觉得监管政策等因素对经济产生了负面影响。",[14,710,711],{},"巴菲特：我是这么看的。他们中的大多数人所在的企业经营状况都还不错，虽然可能比不上经济繁荣时期。",[14,713,714],{},"在华尔街，年收入超过100 万美元的人多得能坐满一个大礼堂。",[14,716,717],{},"罗斯：是的，他们过得还不错。但他们不支持总统，对吧？",[14,719,720],{},"巴菲特：有很多不支持，至少我感觉是这样。",[14,722,723],{},"罗斯：这是为什么呢？他们为什么不再支持总统了？",[14,725,726],{},"巴菲特：我觉得部分原因是一些言论导致的。",[14,728,729],{},"罗斯：比如对企业的批判言论？",[14,731,732],{},"巴菲特：他们是这么认为的。我觉得总统也会觉得，我为企业做了这么多，他们却不领情。我是在保护他",[14,734,735],{},"们，不然他们可能会面临更大的麻烦。所以华尔街的人觉得自己没得到认可，他们其实希望得到肯定。",[14,737,738],{},"罗斯：总统在一次会议上确实这么说过。但在美国主流社会，比如在奥马哈，人们并不这么认为。在其他地方也是……",[14,740,741],{},"巴菲特：嗯，确实有人这么认为……毫无疑问，就像科莫市长说的，竞选时可以用诗意的语言描绘愿景，但执政时必须脚踏实地。仔细想想，竞选的过程就是不断提高人们的期望，而当选后又得让人们回归现实。",[14,743,744],{},"罗斯：基本上你是说，总体而言，你对这位总统并不失望。你和那些大力支持总统的人一样，比如鲍尔斯-辛普森委员会的成员。",[14,746,747],{},"巴菲特：是的，我同意这种说法。我并不失望。听着，无论你多么支持一位总统，你都不可能对他的每一个决策都百分百满意。我敢肯定，伯克希尔的股东也不会对我做的每件事都满意。在一个有3 亿人口的国家，情况就是如此。大家对各种问题都有不同的看法……",[14,749,750],{},"罗斯：有人认为，如果总统更懂商业，有商业管理经验，情况会更好，做出的决策也会不同。你怎么看？",[14,752,753],{},"巴菲特：我不这么认为。从整体决策来看，我不同意这种观点。当然，个别决策或许可以更好。比如任命蒂姆·盖特纳为财政部长就是一个非常明智的决定。就像我挑选到一位优秀的首席执行官，这就是个明智的决定，之后我就不用再为相关事务操心了。",[14,755,756],{},"罗斯：有没有可能是你和其他人不同呢？也许是因为你母亲、妻子的影响，或者是你自身的天赋，又或者其他原因，总之你看待世界的方式和大多数美国知名商人不同。",[14,758,759],{},"巴菲特：每个人都会受到周围环境的影响。",[14,761,762],{},"罗斯：比如本·格雷厄姆的影响……不管是什么原因，沃伦·巴菲特，你看待世界的方式确实和大多数美国杰出商人不同。",[14,764,765],{},"巴菲特：可能确实和很多人想法不同，但也有不少人在某些方面认同我的观点，当然，也不会完全认同。即使是双胞胎，想法也不可能完全一致。我收到过很多富豪和普通商人的反馈，总体来说，有些人认同我的观点，他们对美国也有着相似的期望。当然，也有很多人不同意我的看法。",[14,767,768],{},"罗斯：眼前有两个备受关注的问题。一个是欧洲的局势。你曾表示不会对欧洲银行进行大规模投资救助。你还说过，如果欧洲局势恶化，你非常担心会带来严重后果。你这么说是什么意思呢？",[14,770,771],{},"巴菲特：欧洲的问题很严重。他们进行了一项实验，但其中的缺陷逐渐暴露出来。涉及的金额巨大，银行的偿债能力与各国政府的偿债能力相互交织，反之亦然。他们让17 个国家使用统一货币，但文化、财政政策政治等各种问题都没解决好。所以他们要么进一步加强合作，要么分道扬镳。",[14,773,774],{},"罗斯：也就是放弃欧元和欧元区。但也有人说，他们只是在拖延问题。",[14,776,777],{},"巴菲特：对，可他们又不想这么做，这也可以理解。而且这条路已经没多长了，查理。你都能看到尽头。他们可别再把问题往后拖了，不然就来不及了。",[14,779,780],{},"罗斯：他们真的需要采取更有力的措施，一次性多做一些事，确保能解决问题。要是他们觉得前面是悬崖……所以，如果最糟糕的情况发生，对美国和全球经济会有什么影响呢？",[14,782,783],{},"巴菲特：我也不确定他们会怎么做。毕竟涉及17 个国家，谁也说不准。政治因素等等，太复杂了。但要让我猜，他们最终很可能会选择印钞，不过这也有很多问题，因为他们使用的是统一货币。但当政客们面临难以解决的问题，又觉得印钞能解决时，我想他们会这么做的。我觉得他们",[14,785,786],{},"会在必要的时候救助银行，但我也不确定，这不是预测，只是我的猜测。",[14,788,789],{},"罗斯：话虽如此，但时间太晚了。",[14,791,792],{},"巴菲特：很晚了，真的很晚了。欧洲的银行之前被鼓励大量持有主权债务，因为没有针对这方面的资本要",[14,794,795],{},"求。这让银行有机会进一步加杠杆，稍微提高每股收益，所以它们大量买入。银行原本觉得这些债务信用良好，因为这些国家都在同一个联盟。但现在他们发现并非如此。",[14,797,798],{},"罗斯：你一年前抛售欧洲主权债务时，察觉到了什么？",[14,800,801],{},"巴菲特：我看到了问题的发展趋势。",[14,803,804],{},"罗斯：我是说，你看到了问题，其他人没看到吗？",[14,806,807],{},"巴菲特：不是，我觉得很多人……这有点像2006 年到2007 年美国的情况。大家都隐隐约约感觉到有问题，但都觉得…… 罗斯：嗯，我不确定他们都看到了问题，而且我觉得他们没理解问题的严重性。就像次贷危机，你觉得我这么说不对吗？他们真的看到问题了吗？",[14,809,810],{},"巴菲特：嗯，很多人确实有一种不安的感觉。但他们就像舞会上的灰姑娘。",[14,812,813],{},"罗斯：没错，他们就是这么形容的，你还记得吗？有高管说，只要音乐还在播放，你就得继续跳舞。这是个很经典的说法……",[14,815,816],{},"巴菲特：没错。然后他……你知道，他可能觉得午夜钟声敲响前自己能及时离场，但他们没意识到午夜已经临近。而且他也不是唯一这么想的人。在这方面我也犯过不少错。我看到了一些问题正在发生，但很多时候没有采取足够有力的措施。我和其他人一样有责任。但就欧洲的情况而言，一年多前我就很清楚，我们正走向悬崖边缘。那些使用统一货币却失去印钞权的国家，如果行事鲁莽，问题很快就会爆发。而且这些国家的债券被金融机构大量持有……情况非常糟糕。但查理，这也不是世界末日。欧洲不会消失，十年后的欧洲肯定会比现在更强大。",[14,818,819],{},"只是我不知道这期间他们要经历多少痛苦。未来欧洲仍会是一个巨大的商品市场，会有……",[14,821,822],{},"罗斯：但实行紧缩政策是解决办法吗？",[14,824,825],{},"巴菲特：我不知道。总说让别人实行紧缩政策很容易。这就是他们面临的问题，而且大家对紧缩政策的理解也不一致。有人觉得，你实行紧缩政策，我的债券就能得到保障了。",[14,827,828],{},"罗斯：德国人有他们的道理，对吧？",[14,830,831],{},"巴菲特：没错，他们确实有自己的道理，肯定有。",[14,833,834],{},"罗斯：有人开始说，也许实行单一税率并不是个坏主意。",[14,836,837],{},"巴菲特：单一税率缺乏累进性。我的意思是，我们需要增加的财政收入比现在更多。我们得把财政收入占",[14,839,840],{},"GDP 的比例提高到18%或者15.5%。同时还得削减开支。",[14,842,843],{},"罗斯：你为什么不劝劝总统，让他明确一下在社会保障支出方面的计划呢？",[14,845,846],{},"巴菲特：查理，我这辈子都没给总统打过电话。但总统会打电话请你去白宫发表看法，征求你的建议。我猜你去白宫是因为他想听你分享见解，而不是听他给你讲他的想法。",[14,848,849],{},"巴菲特：实际上，他是想送我一条新领带。",[14,851,852],{},"罗斯：这倒是真的。如果总统能为华盛顿的政治讨论指明方向，明确他认为哪些方面适合削减开支，不是更好吗？",[14,854,855],{},"巴菲特：现在回头看，确实如此，在股市里我们也经常这样事后诸葛亮。但回头看，他或许应该让美国民众更好地为未来可能面临的情况做好准备。",[14,857,858],{},"2009 年他上任时，并没有什么神奇的办法能立刻解决所有问题。他也做了很多正确的事，我非常钦佩他和他采取的行动。但如果人们认为这些措施能在六到十个月内解决所有问题，那就错了。",[14,860,861],{},"罗斯：你也知道，标准普尔下调了美国的信用评级，主要原因是美国政治上的混乱。至少他们是这么说的。",[14,863,864],{},"你觉得怎样才能解决这种政治混乱的局面呢？",[14,866,867],{},"巴菲特：这是个难题。华盛顿有太多人主要考虑的是如何让对手出丑，而且美国民众也明白。而我希望两党都能表现出色，希望政府高效运转。这种情况一直都存在，但现在感觉尤为严重。债务上限问题就是个典型，它让美国民众清楚地看到了华盛顿的混乱。美国民众觉得华盛顿在某些方面运转失灵，而且是故意为之。",[14,869,870],{},"罗斯：他们觉得通过制造混乱能获胜吗？",[14,872,873],{},"巴菲特：嗯，如果无论是哪个党派，都能让对国家发展不满的美国民众相信这是对手的错，那这确实是获胜的一种方式。",[14,875,876],{},"罗斯：对。你觉得如果美国民众知道谁最不关心他们的福祉，会起来反抗吗？",[14,878,879],{},"巴菲特：我真的希望如此，而且我觉得有这种可能。但事情会如何发展，我也不确定。我觉得两党都有不少人认为，未来12 个月情况会很糟糕，至少看起来会很糟，失业率也不会下降太多等等。他们都在想怎么把责任推给对方。这就是……",[14,881,882],{},"罗斯：所以他们会因为不想让对手获益，而拒绝投票支持可能改善国家经济的政策？",[14,884,885],{},"巴菲特：嗯，也许没那么极端，但大致就是这种感觉。我想这就是人们对华盛顿不满的原因。",[14,887,888],{},"罗斯：但问题是，他们很可能会对两党都感到失望。他们现在对国会就是这种态度。",[14,890,891],{},"巴菲特：没错，我觉得他们对国会就是这种感觉。而且他们有充分的理由这么想。",[14,893,894],{},"罗斯：你觉得美国需要成立第三党吗？",[14,896,897],{},"巴菲特：我真不知道这会有什么效果。",[14,899,900],{},"罗斯：很高兴见到你。",[14,902,903],{},"巴菲特：我也很高兴能来这里。",[14,905,906],{},"罗斯：很荣幸你能来参加节目。",[14,908,909],{},"巴菲特：谢谢查理，祝你节目再办20 年。",[911,912],"hr",{},{"title":914,"searchDepth":915,"depth":915,"links":916},"",2,[],"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特接受查理·罗斯专访，谈论巴菲特税、美国国债、欧债危机与房地产前景，分享后危机时代的投资洞察。","md",{},true,99,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":5,"description":919},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang","RKZ9ZHlVObDJ1oCRXfRU29JJYrRKS7Ei1cQbOQO88Dc","buffett",[932,937,940,944,947,950,953,957,960,963,967,970,973,977,980,983,987,990,993,997,1000,1003,1007,1010,1013,1017,1020,1023,1027,1030,1033,1037,1040,1043,1047,1050,1053,1057,1060,1063,1067,1070,1073,1077,1080,1083,1087,1090,1093,1097,1100,1103,1107,1110,1113,1118,1121,1124,1128,1131,1134,1138,1141,1144,1148,1151,1154,1158,1161,1164,1168,1171,1174,1178,1181,1184,1188,1191,1194,1198,1201,1204,1208,1211,1214,1218,1221,1224,1228,1231,1234,1238,1241,1244,1248,1251,1254,1258,1261,1264,1268,1271,1275,1278,1282,1285,1289,1292,1296,1299,1303,1306,1310,1313,1317,1320,1324,1327,1331,1334,1338,1341,1345,1348,1352,1355,1359,1362,1366,1369,1373,1376,1380,1383,1387,1390,1394,1397,1401,1404,1408,1411,1415,1418,1422,1425,1429,1432,1436,1439,1443,1446,1450,1453,1457,1460,1464,1467,1471,1474,1478,1481,1485,1488,1492,1495,1499,1502,1506,1509,1513,1516,1520,1523,1527,1530,1534,1537,1541,1544,1548,1551,1555,1558,1562,1565,1569,1572,1576,1579,1583,1586,1590,1593,1597,1600,1604,1607,1611,1614,1618,1621,1625,1628,1632,1635,1639,1642,1646,1649,1653,1656,1660,1663,1667,1670,1674,1677,1681,1684,1688,1691,1695,1698,1702,1705,1709,1712,1716,1719,1722,1723,1727,1730,1734,1738,1742,1746,1750,1754,1758,1762,1766,1770,1774,1778,1782,1786,1790,1794,1798,1802,1806,1810,1814,1818,1822,1826,1830,1834,1838,1842,1846,1850,1854,1858,1862,1866,1870,1874,1878,1882,1886,1890,1894,1898,1902,1906,1910,1914,1918,1922,1926,1930],{"title":933,"slug":934,"category":935,"order":936},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":938,"slug":939,"category":917,"order":936},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian",{"title":941,"slug":942,"category":943,"order":936},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":945,"slug":946,"category":935,"order":915},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":948,"slug":949,"category":917,"order":915},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":951,"slug":952,"category":943,"order":915},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":954,"slug":955,"category":935,"order":956},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":958,"slug":959,"category":917,"order":956},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":961,"slug":962,"category":943,"order":956},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":964,"slug":965,"category":935,"order":966},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":968,"slug":969,"category":917,"order":966},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":971,"slug":972,"category":943,"order":966},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":974,"slug":975,"category":935,"order":976},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":978,"slug":979,"category":917,"order":976},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":981,"slug":982,"category":943,"order":976},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":984,"slug":985,"category":935,"order":986},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":988,"slug":989,"category":917,"order":986},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":991,"slug":992,"category":943,"order":986},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":994,"slug":995,"category":935,"order":996},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":998,"slug":999,"category":917,"order":996},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1001,"slug":1002,"category":943,"order":996},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1004,"slug":1005,"category":935,"order":1006},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1008,"slug":1009,"category":917,"order":1006},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1011,"slug":1012,"category":943,"order":1006},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1014,"slug":1015,"category":935,"order":1016},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":1018,"slug":1019,"category":917,"order":1016},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":1021,"slug":1022,"category":943,"order":1016},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1024,"slug":1025,"category":935,"order":1026},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":1028,"slug":1029,"category":917,"order":1026},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1031,"slug":1032,"category":943,"order":1026},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1034,"slug":1035,"category":935,"order":1036},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":1038,"slug":1039,"category":917,"order":1036},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":1041,"slug":1042,"category":943,"order":1036},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1044,"slug":1045,"category":935,"order":1046},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":1048,"slug":1049,"category":917,"order":1046},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":1051,"slug":1052,"category":943,"order":1046},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1054,"slug":1055,"category":935,"order":1056},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":1058,"slug":1059,"category":917,"order":1056},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":1061,"slug":1062,"category":943,"order":1056},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1064,"slug":1065,"category":935,"order":1066},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":1068,"slug":1069,"category":917,"order":1066},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1071,"slug":1072,"category":943,"order":1066},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1074,"slug":1075,"category":935,"order":1076},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":1078,"slug":1079,"category":917,"order":1076},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1081,"slug":1082,"category":943,"order":1076},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1084,"slug":1085,"category":935,"order":1086},"1964 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巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1360,"slug":1361,"category":917,"order":1358},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1363,"slug":1364,"category":1116,"order":1365},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1367,"slug":1368,"category":917,"order":1365},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1370,"slug":1371,"category":1116,"order":1372},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1374,"slug":1375,"category":917,"order":1372},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1377,"slug":1378,"category":1116,"order":1379},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1381,"slug":1382,"category":917,"order":1379},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1384,"slug":1385,"category":1116,"order":1386},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1388,"slug":1389,"category":917,"order":1386},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1391,"slug":1392,"category":1116,"order":1393},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1395,"slug":1396,"category":917,"order":1393},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1398,"slug":1399,"category":1116,"order":1400},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1402,"slug":1403,"category":917,"order":1400},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1405,"slug":1406,"category":1116,"order":1407},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1409,"slug":1410,"category":917,"order":1407},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1412,"slug":1413,"category":1116,"order":1414},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1416,"slug":1417,"category":917,"order":1414},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1419,"slug":1420,"category":1116,"order":1421},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1423,"slug":1424,"category":917,"order":1421},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1426,"slug":1427,"category":1116,"order":1428},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1430,"slug":1431,"category":917,"order":1428},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1433,"slug":1434,"category":1116,"order":1435},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1437,"slug":1438,"category":917,"order":1435},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1440,"slug":1441,"category":1116,"order":1442},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1444,"slug":1445,"category":917,"order":1442},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1447,"slug":1448,"category":1116,"order":1449},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1451,"slug":1452,"category":917,"order":1449},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1454,"slug":1455,"category":1116,"order":1456},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1458,"slug":1459,"category":917,"order":1456},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1461,"slug":1462,"category":1116,"order":1463},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1465,"slug":1466,"category":917,"order":1463},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1468,"slug":1469,"category":1116,"order":1470},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1472,"slug":1473,"category":917,"order":1470},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1475,"slug":1476,"category":1116,"order":1477},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1479,"slug":1480,"category":917,"order":1477},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1482,"slug":1483,"category":1116,"order":1484},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1486,"slug":1487,"category":917,"order":1484},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1489,"slug":1490,"category":1116,"order":1491},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1493,"slug":1494,"category":917,"order":1491},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1496,"slug":1497,"category":1116,"order":1498},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1500,"slug":1501,"category":917,"order":1498},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1503,"slug":1504,"category":1116,"order":1505},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1507,"slug":1508,"category":917,"order":1505},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1510,"slug":1511,"category":1116,"order":1512},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1514,"slug":1515,"category":917,"order":1512},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1517,"slug":1518,"category":1116,"order":1519},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1521,"slug":1522,"category":917,"order":1519},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1524,"slug":1525,"category":1116,"order":1526},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1528,"slug":1529,"category":917,"order":1526},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1531,"slug":1532,"category":1116,"order":1533},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1535,"slug":1536,"category":917,"order":1533},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1538,"slug":1539,"category":1116,"order":1540},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1542,"slug":1543,"category":917,"order":1540},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1545,"slug":1546,"category":1116,"order":1547},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1549,"slug":1550,"category":917,"order":1547},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1552,"slug":1553,"category":1116,"order":1554},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1556,"slug":1557,"category":917,"order":1554},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1559,"slug":1560,"category":1116,"order":1561},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1563,"slug":1564,"category":917,"order":1561},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1566,"slug":1567,"category":1116,"order":1568},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1570,"slug":1571,"category":917,"order":1568},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1573,"slug":1574,"category":1116,"order":1575},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1577,"slug":1578,"category":917,"order":1575},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1580,"slug":1581,"category":1116,"order":1582},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1584,"slug":1585,"category":917,"order":1582},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1587,"slug":1588,"category":1116,"order":1589},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1591,"slug":1592,"category":917,"order":1589},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1594,"slug":1595,"category":1116,"order":1596},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1598,"slug":1599,"category":917,"order":1596},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1601,"slug":1602,"category":1116,"order":1603},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1605,"slug":1606,"category":917,"order":1603},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1608,"slug":1609,"category":1116,"order":1610},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1612,"slug":1613,"category":917,"order":1610},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1615,"slug":1616,"category":1116,"order":1617},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1619,"slug":1620,"category":917,"order":1617},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1622,"slug":1623,"category":1116,"order":1624},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1626,"slug":1627,"category":917,"order":1624},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1629,"slug":1630,"category":1116,"order":1631},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1633,"slug":1634,"category":917,"order":1631},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1636,"slug":1637,"category":1116,"order":1638},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1640,"slug":1641,"category":917,"order":1638},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1643,"slug":1644,"category":1116,"order":1645},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1647,"slug":1648,"category":917,"order":1645},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1650,"slug":1651,"category":1116,"order":1652},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1654,"slug":1655,"category":917,"order":1652},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1657,"slug":1658,"category":1116,"order":1659},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1661,"slug":1662,"category":917,"order":1659},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1664,"slug":1665,"category":1116,"order":1666},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1668,"slug":1669,"category":917,"order":1666},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1671,"slug":1672,"category":1116,"order":1673},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1675,"slug":1676,"category":917,"order":1673},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1678,"slug":1679,"category":1116,"order":1680},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1682,"slug":1683,"category":917,"order":1680},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1685,"slug":1686,"category":1116,"order":1687},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1689,"slug":1690,"category":917,"order":1687},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1692,"slug":1693,"category":1116,"order":1694},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1696,"slug":1697,"category":917,"order":1694},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1699,"slug":1700,"category":1116,"order":1701},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1703,"slug":1704,"category":917,"order":1701},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1706,"slug":1707,"category":1116,"order":1708},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":1710,"slug":1711,"category":917,"order":1708},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1713,"slug":1714,"category":1116,"order":1715},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":1717,"slug":1718,"category":917,"order":1715},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1720,"slug":1721,"category":1116,"order":923},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",{"title":5,"slug":927,"category":917,"order":923},{"title":1724,"slug":1725,"category":1116,"order":1726},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":1728,"slug":1729,"category":917,"order":1726},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":1731,"slug":1732,"category":917,"order":1733},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 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