[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2374},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":837,"library-sidebar-dao":1840,"library-sidebar-models":2142},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":823,"date":824,"description":825,"extension":826,"meta":827,"navigation":828,"order":829,"path":830,"seo":831,"seoDescription":825,"seoTitle":832,"slug":833,"stem":834,"__hash__":835,"_collection":836},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu.md","巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":818},"minimark",[9,13,18,22,28,31,34,37,40,43,46,49,52,55,58,61,64,67,70,73,76,79,82,85,88,91,102,105,108,111,114,117,120,123,126,129,132,135,138,141,144,147,154,160,163,166,169,172,175,178,181,184,187,190,193,196,199,202,205,208,211,214,217,220,223,226,229,232,235,238,241,244,247,250,253,256,259,262,265,268,271,274,277,280,283,286,289,295,298,301,304,307,310,313,316,319,322,329,332,335,338,341,344,347,350,353,356,359,365,368,371,374,377,383,386,389,392,395,398,401,404,407,410,413,416,419,422,425,428,431,434,437,440,443,446,449,452,455,458,461,464,467,470,473,476,479,482,485,488,491,497,500,505,508,511,514,517,522,525,528,531,534,537,540,543,546,549,552,555,558,561,564,567,570,573,576,579,582,585,588,591,594,597,600,603,606,609,612,615,618,621,624,627,630,633,636,639,642,645,648,651,654,657,660,663,666,669,672,675,678,681,684,687,690,693,696,699,702,705,708,711,714,717,720,723,726,729,732,735,738,741,744,747,750,753,756,759,762,765,768,771,774,777,780,783,786,789,792,795,798,801,806,809,812,815],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2009年收购bnsf-铁路",[14,15,17],"h2",{"id":16},"巴菲特收购bnsf-铁路","巴菲特：收购BNSF 铁路",[19,20,21],"p",{},"2009 年11 月13 日",[23,24,25],"blockquote",{},[19,26,27],{},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司董事长兼CEO 沃伦巴菲特，就全球和美国经济的复苏，以及伯克希尔以260 亿美元收购BNSF 伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路公司一事展开讨论。",[19,29,30],{},"查理·罗斯：欢迎沃伦·巴菲特来到了节目现场。众所周知，他或许是全球最受尊敬的投资者。他同时也是伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的董事长兼CEO，多次参与我们的节目。我上次与他交谈是在一年多以前，正值大萧条以来最严重的经济危机高峰期。当时他表示，美国遭受了一场经济\"珍珠港事件\"。但自那以后，情况发生了很大变化，今天他来到这里，为我们讲述他对全球和美国经济复苏的看法。他所在的公司也体现了近几个月来取得的进展。上周，伯克希尔达成了一项260 亿美元的交易，全额收购BNSF 伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路公司，这是该公司历史上规模最大的一笔收购。他称这笔交易是对美国经济的一次全力押注。",[19,32,33],{},"他来到纽约是为了参加昨天在哥伦比亚大学与比尔·盖茨共同举办的市政厅活动。他还特意多在纽约停留了一晚，我很高兴我的好朋友再次来到节目现场。欢迎你，沃伦·巴菲特。",[19,35,36],{},"巴菲特：谢谢你，查理。很高兴来到这里。",[19,38,39],{},"罗斯：很高兴见到你。从2008 年年中到2009 年年中，这无疑是不可思议的一年。",[19,41,42],{},"巴菲特：不可思议的一年。我希望这辈子就经历这一次。",[19,44,45],{},"罗斯：是啊。和我讲讲你眼中的这一年吧。",[19,47,48],{},"巴菲特：这一年，对美国来说真的是非同寻常。我们比我经历过的任何时候都更接近金融崩溃，在某些方面，甚至可能比大萧条时期还要恐慌，因为危机来得如此迅速和出乎意料。整个国家都在去杠杆化，企业和个人都是如此。幸运的是，政府采取了应对措施。上次我们交谈时，还不确定国会是否会做出正确回应。不过他们最终还是行动了，我也一直相信他们最终会这么做。毕竟，当事情对国家至关重要时，他们会团结一致。而且华盛顿有合适的人在负责。要是换一群人，像被车灯照到的鹿一样惊慌失措，那美国可就惨了。",[19,50,51],{},"罗斯：所以，当时保尔森、伯南克和盖特纳是正确人选，要是其他人掌权，后果不堪设想。",[19,53,54],{},"巴菲特：我就不点名我能想到其他人选，但换作他们，我们可能已经深陷深渊，而不只是身处边缘。",[19,56,57],{},"罗斯：在那段时期，你投资了通用电气、高盛。但你这次收购可是下了大注。",[19,59,60],{},"巴菲特：嗯，这笔投资可能耗尽了我们大部分资金。(笑声)",[19,62,63],{},"罗斯：你说过，为了这笔投资，你倾尽全力。为什么要这么做？",[19,65,66],{},"巴菲特：我认为这是一个收购一家能够存续100 年甚至200 年企业的机会。这家企业与美国经济紧密相连，只要美国经济繁荣，它就能繁荣发展。铁路运输是美国国内运输货物最高效的方式，也是最环保的方式，这两点都非常重要。但最重要的是，美国经济会发展得很好。毕竟，我们没法把铁路搬到中国或印度去，他们也还没找到办法这么做。就像Frank Sinatra 唱的那首关于纽约的歌里唱的：在这里能成功，在哪里也都能成功。这条铁路每加仑柴油能运输1 吨货物470 英里。一列火车能替代280 辆公路卡车。与卡车运输相比，它向大气中排放的污染物要少得多。就整个铁路行业而言，它承担了40%的货物运输量。",[19,68,69],{},"罗斯：像休斯敦这样的新入境港口，通过巴拿马运河运来了大量货物……",[19,71,72],{},"巴菲特：哦，那是肯定的。美国人口会越来越多，人们对商品的需求也会不断增加。当然，偶尔也会遇到不景气的年份。在未来100 年里，可能会有15 个不景气的年份，虽然我不知道它们会在什么时候出现，但我知道铁路对这个国家至关重要。",[19,74,75],{},"罗斯：你给查理·芒格打电话说考虑这笔投资时，他是马上表示赞同，还是提出了其他意见？",[19,77,78],{},"巴菲特：如果查理马上说\"干得好，沃伦\"，我肯定觉得打错电话了。那肯定不是他会说的话。这种话可能会是我妻子或者其他人说的。而查理只是低声嘟囔了几句，对他来说，这就已经是很大的认可了。",[19,80,81],{},"罗斯：但据说，他也指出，这是一个受监管的行业。这是一个资本密集型行业。还是工会化的行业。",[19,83,84],{},"巴菲特：没错。**资本密集度非常高。你得不断投入资金。在这个行业，你每天都得投入资金，要花大量的钱来维修铁轨、增加机车车辆等等。**所以它资本非常密集，而且受到政府监管，未来也会继续如此。",[19,86,87],{},"我认为铁路提供的服务在很多方面都非常重要。尽可能地通过铁路运输货物是正确的选择。而且，与使用卡车相比，铁路运输在应对全球变暖方面要更具优势。所以铁路行业会一直存在。但如果我们在追加的资本投入上能获得合理回报，因为铁路确实需要追加投资，那我们就认为追加投入没有问题。",[19,89,90],{},"罗斯：合理的回报就够了吗？",[19,92,93,94,98,99],{},"巴菲特：",[95,96,97],"strong",{},"合理的回报就够了","，查理。50 年前，我追求的是超高回报，但现在我知道那不太现实。我们每年有 80-100 亿美元的资金用于投资。我们还涉足公用事业领域，道理是一样的。当我们建设发电设施或类似项目时，不能期望获得超高回报。我们建设的是对社会至关重要的项目，人们需要我们的服务。比如，在电力供应方面，人们别无选择，在铁路运输方面有时也是如此。",[95,100,101],{},"我们应该获得合理的回报，足以鼓励我们继续投入资金，但我们也没资格要求超高回报。",[19,103,104],{},"罗斯：你们运输煤炭吗？",[19,106,107],{},"巴菲特：从运输吨位来看，煤炭运输量很大。",[19,109,110],{},"罗斯：如果我们真的逐渐减少对煤炭的依赖，这会是个大问题吗？",[19,112,113],{},"巴菲特：随着时间推移，我们确实会逐渐减少对煤炭的依赖。目前，40%的电力来自煤炭，我们不可能下周、下个月或者明年就改变这一现状，但我们会逐步减少对煤炭的使用，也应该这么做。",[19,115,116],{},"罗斯：你们可以增加其他运输货物，情况会有所变化……",[19,118,119],{},"巴菲特：未来会有更多的谷物需要运输，还有各种化学品之类的物资。10 年、20 年或者30 年后，美国国内的货物运输量会比现在更多。",[19,121,122],{},"罗斯：你一直强调\"护城河\"的概念，没人愿意涉足铁路行业，这是不是让你很满意？",[19,124,125],{},"巴菲特：如果有人想复制BNSF 铁路公司，可能需要投入1000 亿美元左右。",[19,127,128],{},"罗斯：那可能得花1000 亿年。(笑声)",[19,130,131],{},"巴菲特：那他们可真是太有\"勇气\"了。(笑声)",[19,133,134],{},"罗斯：如今的铁路也实现了现代化，对吧？",[19,136,137],{},"巴菲特：**变化巨大。就拿BNSF 铁路公司来说，他们现在用更少的人力、更少的燃料，运输了更多的货物。多年来，铁路运输效率大幅提高。**二战后，铁路行业曾雇佣了150 万人，如今美国铁路行业的从业人员不到20万，但运输的货物却多得多。所以铁路运输效率确实提高了很多。你看那些有130 节车厢的双层列车……",[19,139,140],{},"罗斯：你的投资组合里还有其他铁路公司的股票。你打算卖掉它们吗？",[19,142,143],{},"巴菲特：是的，我已经卖掉了。这么做是为了促成这次收购交易。我认为这些股票是不错的投资，但如果没有这次收购，我会继续持有。",[19,145,146],{},"罗斯：展望未来，有人认为，这次收购符合你现在的投资理念——抛售现金，买入资产。因为我们不知道美元会发生什么变化。",[19,148,149,150,153],{},"巴菲特：现金一直都不是好的投资选择。去年人们说\"现金为王\"的时候，我就觉得很荒谬。",[95,151,152],{},"现金不会产生任何收益，而且随着时间推移肯定会贬值。当然，你得确保手头有足够的现金，这就像氧气一样，得保证它的存在，但也没必要持有过多","。我们公司会一直持有足够的现金。但只要我们有多余的现金，我就会觉得不满意。",[19,155,156,159],{},[95,157,158],{},"我宁愿持有优质企业，也不愿持有现金","。在过去一年左右的时间里，我们有了投资的机会。一开始我们有400 多亿美元现金，现在大概还剩200 亿美元，期间还有一些收益。所以，我们已经投入了大量现金，我很满意这样的做法。比起现金，我更愿意持有优质企业。",[19,161,162],{},"罗斯：这是对冲美元风险的一种方式吗？",[19,164,165],{},"巴菲特：可以说所有资产都能对冲美元风险。但我们只知道，10 年、20 年、30 年后，美元的价值会降低。我说的是\"价值降低\"(购买力)，并不是\"一文不值\"。(笑声)你得注意这一点。几乎所有货币都是如此，问题在于贬值的幅度。现金可不是保值的好选择……",[19,167,168],{},"罗斯：为什么美元会贬值呢？",[19,170,171],{},"巴菲特：因为随着商品流通量的增加，我们会印发更多的美元。比如说，如果现在给每个美国家庭发100 万美元现金，除了那些投资美元计价资产的人，其他人都会很高兴。你懂的……",[19,173,174],{},"罗斯：确实，我明白了。",[19,176,177],{},"巴菲特：长期来看，美国不会出现通货紧缩，或者说几乎不会出现通货紧缩。",[19,179,180],{},"罗斯：在我们以往的所有对话中，我从没想过有一天会和你坐在一起讨论伯克希尔B 股50 比1 拆分的事情。",[19,182,183],{},"这肯定不是个容易的决定，对吧？",[19,185,186],{},"巴菲特：我觉得自己那晚像是做了脑叶切除术，完全昏了头才做了这个决定。这对我来说并不寻常**，但为了让BNSF 铁路公司的小股东和大股东获得相同的交易条件，**这是必要的。",[19,188,189],{},"罗斯：没错，确实如此。这会让你们公司符合标准普尔指数的纳入条件吗？",[19,191,192],{},"巴菲特：从长远来看，这可能会让我们更有可能被纳入该指数。这对标准普尔来说更容易操作，因为我们是目前尚未被纳入该指数的最大公司，我猜他们会考虑将我们纳入。",[19,194,195],{},"罗斯：你希望被纳入吗？",[19,197,198],{},"巴菲特：我当然不介意。但这也不是我圣诞节的愿望清单上的头等大事。",[19,200,201],{},"罗斯：不是你最渴望的事情。",[19,203,204],{},"巴菲特：不是。最重要的是公司的价值。如果我们提升了公司价值，股票自然会有好的表现。",[19,206,207],{},"罗斯：没错。当你看待铁路行业时，它有一种独特的魅力。我记得你家阁楼里有一个铁路模型，是吗？",[19,209,210],{},"巴菲特：现在还有。我还留着呢。希望不会因为反垄断的原因让我卖掉它。(笑声)",[19,212,213],{},"罗斯：看看这段BNSF 铁路运行的录像。",[19,215,216],{},"巴菲特：我的心跳都加速了。要是再有Grace Kelly 或Marilyn Monroe，我可能会出更高的价钱。(笑声)",[19,218,219],{},"罗斯：J.P.摩根也曾涉足铁路行业，对吧？",[19,221,222],{},"巴菲特：是的，事实上，他们围绕北太平洋铁路公司还发生过一场激烈的争斗，那是BNSF 铁路公司的前身之一。当时有两派势力，摩根站在其中一方。他在铁路行业涉足很深。",[19,224,225],{},"罗斯：昨晚在哥伦比亚大学，你说经济恐慌已经结束。你认为我们现在处于什么阶段？",[19,227,228],{},"巴菲特：是的已经结束。我可以告诉你我们现在的情况，但未来会怎样，我可说不准。我们旗下有70 多家企业，所以我了解很多情况。经济恐慌确实已经结束。",[19,230,231],{},"现在资金在流动，虽然我们还处于经济衰退期，对资金的需求没那么大，而且资金也不会像几年前那样流向那些不靠谱的项目，但现在资金是充足的。恐慌情绪已经消散，信用违约利差大幅下降。但去年秋天蔓延到实体经济的恐慌，给美国民众的心理留下了深深的创伤。去年秋天，他们的消费习惯和对未来的规划发生了巨大改变，而且这种改变至今没有恢复。我们公司旗下的业务已经触底，但几乎没有回升的迹象，目前基本处于筑底状态。不过，查理，经济肯定会复苏的，我想强调这一点。只是到目前为止，还没有太大变化。",[19,233,234],{},"罗斯：你能预测经济复苏的时间吗？",[19,236,237],{},"巴菲特：很难说。我一直在观察，经济肯定会复苏。人们不再恐慌，但他们的行为和一年前相比很大不同。",[19,239,240],{},"罗斯：人们开始增加储蓄，减少风险投资，理财规划也更加合理。",[19,242,243],{},"巴菲特：他们减少了风险投资，更多人开始担忧未来。他们看到了一些原本认为不可能发生的事情。",[19,245,246],{},"罗斯：你一直认为，美国是一个过度消费的社会，储蓄率太低。现在我们会转变为一个储蓄型社会吗？",[19,248,249],{},"巴菲特：有可能，我们可能会变成储蓄型社会。但政府的借贷需求很大，即使有大量外资流入，国内仍需大量借贷。",[19,251,252],{},"罗斯：那么消费需求从何而来呢？",[19,254,255],{},"巴菲特：最终还是会恢复的。我们的经济体系仍然有效。去年我们把美国经济比作心脏病突发倒在地上的运动员，我们还没出院，但肯定会康复出院的。美国之所以强大的那些因素并没有消失，随着时间推移，它们会再次发挥作用。但如果房屋供应过剩，那就需要时间来消化。如果商业房地产市场存在问题，比如人们过度借贷，以过低的资本化率买入房产，这些问题都需要时间来解决。不过，过去我们也遇到过类似情况，19 世纪20 世纪都有，每次我们都能更加强劲地复苏。",[19,257,258],{},"罗斯：商业房地产市场现在确实陷入困境。",[19,260,261],{},"巴菲特：一团糟。",[19,263,264],{},"罗斯：你还涉足了内衣、冰淇淋行业，还投资了公用事业领域。电力需求也出现了下降，是吗？",[19,266,267],{},"巴菲特：这很惊人。在爱荷华州、中西部地区，还有太平洋西北地区和山区各州，工业用电需求大幅下降在意料之中，但如果排除天气因素，居民用电需求也下降了。这是自二战以来从未有过的情况。倒不是说居民用电量下降了20%之类的，但这种情况和二战后的任何时期都截然不同。",[19,269,270],{},"罗斯：这场危机之后，会不会出现这样的情况：除了美国经济，其他国家要承担并创造对美国产品的需求？",[19,272,273],{},"巴菲特：不会，美国经济会复苏的。虽然不会马上实现，而且也不会和以前完全一样。但最终，美国人民的创新能力、对繁荣的渴望和追求新想法的热情都没有改变。新的企业会不断涌现，现有企业也会不断扩张。只是短期内不会有太大变化。",[19,275,276],{},"罗斯：你曾说过，我们可能需要更多\"药方\"。是指更多的经济刺激措施吗？还是别的什么？",[19,278,279],{},"巴菲特：我们已经采取了很多刺激措施，这些措施也带来了不少副作用。",[19,281,282],{},"罗斯：没错。一会儿我们再详细谈谈这个。",[19,284,285],{},"巴菲特：没错，但经济刺激计划并没有完美实施。毕竟，没有什么事情是完美的，我也不该过分批评。",[19,287,288],{},"罗斯：为什么不能批评呢？我们不就是从批评中吸取教训吗？",[19,290,291,292],{},"巴菲特：哦，也对。但总的来说，只要能解决问题，我觉得就没必要对具体措施过分挑剔。",[95,293,294],{},"不过，刺激计划中本应包含更多基础设施建设项目，而不是像现在这样，添加了很多非必要的项目，就像把半片伟哥和糖果混在一起。不如去掉糖果，直接服用一整片伟哥。(笑声)",[19,296,297],{},"罗斯：但你认为我们还需要新的经济刺激计划吗？因为之前的计划存在缺陷。",[19,299,300],{},"巴菲特：我觉得可以先观望一下。等假期到来，我们就能看出一些端倪。就目前我所看到的情况，我觉得这个假期的消费不会太火爆，但一个月后我们就知道结果了。",[19,302,303],{},"罗斯：这是投资的最佳时机吗？",[19,305,306],{},"巴菲特：绝对是。",[19,308,309],{},"罗斯：对美国公司以及其他所有方面来说都是如此吗？",[19,311,312],{},"巴菲特：所有方面。回顾过去几百年，我们能取得如今的成就，并非因为我们变得更聪明或工作更努力，而是因为我们找到了释放人类潜能的方法。是什么起到了作用呢**？法治、市场体系、机会平等都发挥了作用**。这些仍然是美国体系的基本组成部分。事实上，如今的美国体系比几百年前更好，因为在19 世纪修正案通过之前，美国有一半的人才无法充分发挥才能。所以我们拥有一个很棒的体系。",[19,314,315],{},"罗斯：但现在的情况是，世界其他国家，尤其是中国、印度等国家发展迅速，潜力巨大，而且发展速度比我们快。",[19,317,318],{},"巴菲特：这也很棒啊。",[19,320,321],{},"罗斯：很棒？这意味着蛋糕更大了？",[19,323,324,325,328],{},"巴菲特：当然。",[95,326,327],{},"世界不是零和博弈","。如果让我们选择，是成为一个65 亿人中有大多数都在挣扎，只有我们繁荣的孤岛，还是和其他国家一起繁荣，后者显然是更好的选择，尤其是在核时代。你不会希望数十亿拥有核能力的人嫉妒你，觉得你独占了世界上所有的好处。所以，与中国相比，我们的增长速度会慢很多，但他们的起点要低得多。",[19,330,331],{},"罗斯：但在21 世纪中叶的某个时候，他们的经济规模可能会超过我们。你不这么认为吗？",[19,333,334],{},"巴菲特：那还需要很长时间。从人均角度来看，他们要超过我们还有很长的路要走……",[19,336,337],{},"罗斯：我不是说人均，而是总体经济规模的增长。他们的GDP 增长规模会超过我们。",[19,339,340],{},"巴菲特：这倒是真的。他们的人口是我们的四倍，所以他们的总体经济规模必然会超过我们。他们的增长速度会比我们快，但他们的起点低很多。打个比方，我今天在街上遇到一个人，他的净资产增长百分比可能比我快，但如果我的起点足够高，他要赶上我还需要一段时间。",[19,342,343],{},"罗斯：哦，确实。中国的情况也有所不同。你投资了一家中国的汽车和电池公司，这家公司的创始人是一位 43 岁的企业家王传福，无论他来自哪里，都会让人钦佩。他的身上还有点你的影子。",[19,345,346],{},"巴菲特：嗯，没错。不过他会说中文，我可不会。他很可能会做出了不起的成就。",[19,348,349],{},"罗斯：他现在是中国首富。",[19,351,352],{},"巴菲特：没错。但我认为如果他取得非凡成就，对美国也有好处。比如说，如果他研发出更好的电池技术，相信我，我们也能用上。",[19,354,355],{},"罗斯：好的，但有一个问题。过去，美国在技术领域一直处于前沿，你的好朋友比尔·盖茨就是很好的证明。但中国是否正在发展相关能力呢？比亚迪将引领电池技术发展。还有人说中国将在太阳能技术领域占据领先地位。还有其他方面，中国做得更多。我们是否要面对这个残酷的现实呢？",[19,357,358],{},"巴菲特：这个嘛，我们也不确定……其实，让全世界的人才都致力于电池技术或其他领域的研究是好事。我是说，如果能借助更多人的力量来解决我们的问题，我举双手赞成。如果我们率先取得突破，他们效仿我们，没问题。如果他们先取得成果，我们借鉴他们，也没问题。毕竟，他们不可能垄断技术，不让我们知晓。",[19,360,361,362],{},"所以，",[95,363,364],{},"我当然希望美国在所有领域都领先，但如果中国或印度有人研发出能帮助美国解决问题的技术，我也不觉得这有什么不好。我们能获得这些技术。",[19,366,367],{},"罗斯：很可能世界正在觉醒。我今天看到俄罗斯梅德韦杰夫总统向民众发出了严厉的信息，他说我们不能仅仅依赖石油和能源出口，必须开始思考如何进行全面的结构调整，这听起来和美国人谈论当今经济现实的口吻很像……",[19,369,370],{},"巴菲特：是的。他这么说是因为这太明显了。他们过去过于依赖石油。但好在，我们并没有垄断市场体系。市场体系也可以在其他地方存在。这会促使人们致力于研发他人需要的东西。这可比中央计划经济好多了。",[19,372,373],{},"罗斯：看看当下，考虑到就业现实，我们有能力创造足够的就业机会吗？还是说我们不得不接受一个前所未有的高失业率？",[19,375,376],{},"巴菲特：我们能创造新的就业机会。我们经历过各种艰难的失业周期，1980 年代初可能是最艰难的时期。当时的情况看起来比现在严峻，当然不是在金融领域。1981-1982 年，失业率高达10%，沃尔克对经济采取了强硬措施，人们担心德国和日本会生产所有产品，美国该何去何从。但从那以后，我们创造了数以百万计的就业机会。想想看，当年保罗·艾伦和比尔·盖茨在阿尔伯克基凌晨两点吃披萨喝可乐写代码的时候，谁能想到他们会成为美国未来的重要力量呢？现在也一样，几年前，谁能想到谷歌的创始人在做的事情会有如此大的影响力呢？",[19,378,379,380],{},"我们无法预测未来会怎样。昨晚我在哥伦比亚大学的教室里和1000 人交流。如果回到1790 年，我对同样的 1000 人发表这样的鼓舞讲话，他们离开后回到农场，可能会说，讲得不错，但我们到底该怎么办呢？如果农具改进了，反而会导致失业。他们当时不会想到汽车、飞机和电力的出现。",[95,381,382],{},"我无法告诉你未来会创造什么样的就业机会，但我能肯定，新的就业机会一定会出现。",[19,384,385],{},"罗斯：你也明确表示过，在这次以及其他谈话中，你认为在危机时刻我们不得不投入大量资金，但这可能会带来一个和危机本身一样棘手的问题。",[19,387,388],{},"巴菲特：当你以史无前例的剂量使用传统的经济手段，甚至像去年秋天那样发明一些新的手段时，就会产生副作用和后续影响。而且，这些影响在某种程度上可能与措施的极端程度成正比。所以，如果我们继续像现在这样维持巨额财政赤字，长期来看必然会带来很多问题。",[19,390,391],{},"罗斯：2009 年的财政赤字达到1.4 万亿美元。这些都是实实在在的数字。",[19,393,394],{},"巴菲特：是的，数额巨大……对我来说也是如此。\"万亿\"这个数字确实很惊人。这会带来后果。而且我们并没有1.4 万亿美元的储蓄来填补这个赤字。二战期间，我们也面临巨额赤字，相对于当时的国内生产总值，那是为了打仗。战后甚至在战争期间都出现了通货膨胀。",[19,396,397],{},"罗斯：所以，由于投入的资金量巨大，通货膨胀是不可避免的吗？",[19,399,400],{},"巴菲特：接下来的问题基本上取决于国会。从长远来看，国会决定着美元的价值。如果他们采取的政策导致我们过度印钞、货币化债务等等，美元就会大幅贬值。",[19,402,403],{},"罗斯：那么国会应该怎么做呢？",[19,405,406],{},"巴菲特：一旦经济恢复增长……随着经济衰退结束，人们的收入会增加，所以他们现在就应该提高税收，但他们还必须缩小财政支出缺口。",[19,408,409],{},"罗斯：他们必须增加财政收入。控制财政支出比增加财政收入更难，不是吗？你认为削减支出和增加收入，哪个更容易？",[19,411,412],{},"巴菲特：是的。他们必须二者选其一，因为这两者之间的差距，占国内生产总值的比例，除了战争时期，比以往任何时候都要大。",[19,414,415],{},"罗斯：现在这个比例是多少，10%吗？",[19,417,418],{},"巴菲特：没错，刚好超过10%，这个差距非常大。",[19,420,421],{},"罗斯：可接受的比例是多少呢？6%？里根时期是6%。",[19,423,424],{},"巴菲特：如果财政收支缺口保持在2-2.5%左右，同时经济保持正常增长，那么债务占GDP 的比例就不会上升。随着时间推移，国家会更富裕，生产能力也会增强等等。所以我们可以承受一定的债务，但债务规模应该与国家的财富和收入成一定比例。长期来看，我们可以承受2%左右的财政收支缺口，这样债务就不会成比例增长。",[19,426,427],{},"目前，净未偿债务约占GDP 的55%，这个比例目前来说还没问题。但不能让它持续上升。一旦失去控制，债务利息会不断累积等等。当然，在经济好的年份，如果平均财政收支缺口目标是2%，那就不能把2%作为底线，因为遇到像今年这样财政收支缺口达到10%的年份，平均水平就会被大幅拉高。",[19,429,430],{},"罗斯：经常有人问这个问题：如果赤字、债务不断增加，美元持续贬值，会不会有一天，持有美国债务的人不再愿意购买美国国债，从而引发危机呢？",[19,432,433],{},"巴菲特：从某种意义上说，世界其他国家也没什么选择。如果美国的经常账户赤字是400 亿美元，这意味着我们给了世界其他国家400 亿美元。他们必须用这些钱买些东西，而且无论如何都得用美元购买。比如说，他们用这些美元购买美国国债，之后又决定卖掉国债去买股票，卖掉国债后他们得到的还是美元。他们可以在不同资产之间选择，但实际上无法选择不投资美国。",[19,435,436],{},"罗斯：但他们可以选择去其他地方进行新的投资，不是吗？",[19,438,439],{},"巴菲特：实际上，如果美国的赤字是400 亿美元，世界其他国家就会得到价值400 亿美元的美国各种\"欠条\"。现在，有人说中国会购买法国的资产，如果他们把这些钱投资到法国，那么法国就得到了这些美元。要减少这种情况，最终还是要消除经常账户赤字。但如果美国的赤字高达1.4 万亿美元，即使实际上向世界其他国家输出了 400 亿美元的\"欠条\"，仍有1 万亿美元的缺口。而且国内的储蓄者无法填补这1 万亿美元的缺口。所以，我们目前的做法从长期来看是不可持续的。",[19,441,442],{},"确实，如果美国不断向世界输出债务，而人们又看到美国的财政政策有些失控，他们对美国债务的兴趣就会越来越低。到那时，就会出现两种情况：要么不断提高利率来滚动偿还债务，要么疯狂印钞来货币化债务。美联储可以购买国债并发行货币，但这样一来，货币就会贬值。",[19,444,445],{},"罗斯：如果我们不尽快采取有力措施，你刚才描述的情况会成为现实吗？",[19,447,448],{},"巴菲特：很快就会面临这种情况。但我们还是希望经济能够复苏。我们得先扑灭大火，但我们不能只是盲目地泼水。我们得知道火什么时候灭了。",[19,450,451],{},"罗斯：是的，但我们怎么知道呢？这是我的问题。",[19,453,454],{},"巴菲特：嗯，失业率最终会见顶回落。当经济真正开始复苏时，我们就会知道。",[19,456,457],{},"罗斯：有什么迹象能表明经济开始复苏呢？",[19,459,460],{},"巴菲特：零售额、汽车销量会上升，住房建设也会回暖。会有很多经济指标反映出来，只是这些指标可能会有一定滞后性，被人们注意到的时候会晚一些。但我们肯定会知道的。我们无法预知经济何时好转，但三四个月后，我们就能确定经济已经开始复苏。",[19,462,463],{},"罗斯：未来一两年或者更晚些时候，经济复苏是必然的吗？",[19,465,466],{},"巴菲特：我觉得两年内复苏的可能性比一年内更大。但你说必然，并不意味着不可能更早复苏。",[19,468,469],{},"罗斯：我是说，你担心哪些因素会阻碍经济以应有的方式复苏，担心这场危机的哪些影响会产生持久的负面作用呢？",[19,471,472],{},"巴菲特：肯定会有一些持久的影响，但对于经济复苏，我并不担心。",[19,474,475],{},"不过，如果发生一些重大的外部事件，比如某个国家发动攻击，或者恐怖分子制造类似\"911\"事件规模翻倍的袭击，或者发生大规模炭疽袭击之类的，又或者油价涨到每桶250 美元。如果油价涨到每桶250 美元，一些外部因素可能会产生负面作用。比如说，全球每天8500 万桶石油产量中，有500 万桶突然停止供应，而且当时看起来几乎是永久性停产，那全球经济就会受到很大冲击。",[19,477,478],{},"罗斯：回顾这场危机，我们得到了很多教训。其中之一就是你提到的过度杠杆化。我们还经历了房地产泡",[19,480,481],{},"沫。以后还会出现其他泡沫吗？",[19,483,484],{},"巴菲特：肯定会有。我敢保证。",[19,486,487],{},"罗斯：我们还会回到以前那种过度杠杆化的状态吗？",[19,489,490],{},"巴菲特：短期内不会**。我们会从教训中吸取经验，而且伤痛越深，记忆就越深刻。我就受益于此。**",[19,492,493,494],{},"1951 年我毕业的时候，我的竞争对手们还在担心大萧条，而我因为记忆没那么深刻，所以没受太大影响。所以，这场危机在一定程度上会在很长一段时间内影响人们的思维。",[95,495,496],{},"但恐惧、贪婪和愚蠢的人性不会改变。我们无法消除这些人性弱点。我们在很多方面变得更聪明，但在情感方面却没有太大进步。",[19,498,499],{},"罗斯：为什么会这样呢？",[19,501,93,502],{},[95,503,504],{},"这就是人类的本性。你知道，记忆会逐渐模糊，而新的诱惑又会不断出现。而且贪婪在短期内可能会让人感觉很\"爽\"。杠杆在多数情况下都能发挥作用，100 次里有99 次都有效，但一旦失效，就全完了。",[19,506,507],{},"罗斯：你总是更享受赚钱和投资的过程，而不是花钱，怎么解释这种现象呢？",[19,509,510],{},"巴菲特：我已经拥有了生活中想要的一切，没什么需要花钱去买的。",[19,512,513],{},"比如，我就算有10 栋房子，也不会比只有1 栋更开心。有10 辆车，也不会比有2 辆车更快乐，反而会让我心烦。要是有一艘400 英尺长的船，还得配备五六十人的船员，谁知道他们之间会发生什么事呢。如果我想当船长，当初就会选择别的职业了。我已经拥有了生活中想要的一切。",[19,515,516],{},"罗斯：你喜欢研究当下的情况，通过交流和阅读进行分析……",[19,518,93,519],{},[95,520,521],{},"我喜欢和同事们一起工作。我喜欢观察人间百态。我的生活很理想，每天都能做自己想做的事。金钱能买到的东西也就到此为止了。",[19,523,524],{},"罗斯：你对增值税怎么看？",[19,526,527],{},"巴菲特：我基本上不太喜欢增值税，它和销售税有些类似，虽然不完全一样，但有相似之处。它是累退税。美国不需要更多的累退税。",[19,529,530],{},"罗斯：这就是你不喜欢\"总量控制与交易\"政策的原因吧。",[19,532,533],{},"巴菲特：没错，从对人们的影响来看，确实如此。我觉得如果要增加财政收入，应该多向我这样的人征税。我支付的股息和资本利得税率比我的清洁工还低，单从她缴纳的工资税就能看出来。近年来，财富分配差距越来越大，大部分人都被甩在了后面，真是\"涨潮只把游艇浮\"(少数富人受益)。(笑声) 罗斯：但像你这样的人并不多。你和比尔·盖茨可是首富级别的。还有一个问题，对于像你这样的人，在不抑制经济增长的前提下，合适的税率是多少呢？一些保守派和供应学派人士认为，过高的税率会抑制经济增长。",[19,535,536],{},"巴菲特：我经历过各种税收制度。我和富人打过交道，1950 年代就开始了。当时最高税率达到70%，资本利得税率是39.6%，但没有一个人跟我说，因为边际税率太高，下午1 点了，我不想工作，想去看电影。查理，实际上他们反而工作得更努力了。",[19,538,539],{},"罗斯：他们能致富就是因为工作努力。",[19,541,542],{},"巴菲特：我接触过几百人，在合伙经营的过程中，没有一个人跟我说：\"沃伦，税率39.6%，我决定不投资了。\"他们不投资能把钱放哪儿呢？藏在床垫下面吗？",[19,544,545],{},"罗斯：这是否意味着美国的制度在某种程度上对富人更有利，有点不公平呢？",[19,547,548],{},"巴菲特：随着时间推移，美国制度确实越来越偏向富人。很明显，富人对国会的决策有着不成比例的影响力……",[19,550,551],{},"罗斯：金钱影响政治。",[19,553,554],{},"巴菲特：基本上来说，如果一个国家很富裕，有很多超级富豪，那就必须防止出现财阀统治。为了让民主原则战胜财阀统治，国会必须……在这方面我们国家做得还不错。但这是一场持续的斗争。K 街游说团体可不是由代表我家清洁工的人组成的。看看《福布斯》富豪400 强榜单，你就会发现，他们会和游说团体相互勾结。",[19,556,557],{},"罗斯：确实。他们在游说团体那里有很大的话语权。",[19,559,560],{},"(华盛顿K Street 位于国会山和白宫之间，是美国一条著名的游说一条街。它云集了大批智库、游说集团、公关公司 、民间组织、国际总部，世界银行 、国际货币基金组织 也在此落户。如果美国纽约华尔街 是国际金融中心的话，那么华盛顿K 街就是风云变幻的国际政治中心。)",[19,562,563],{},"巴菲特：他们很在意这些。当然在意。",[19,565,566],{},"罗斯：那你认为该怎么解决这个问题呢？",[19,568,569],{},"巴菲特：这一直是个难题。我们希望国家繁荣，所以需要有很多富人，但在像美国这样繁荣的国家，也希望每个人都能过得不错。美国人均GDP 达到了4.5 万美元，但近6000 万人生活在家庭收入最高不超过2.1 万美元的家庭中。这可是6000 万人的家庭收入上限。所以我们还能做得更好。实际上，随着时间推移，我们已经取得了一些进步。比如推出了社会保障制度，还实施了一些医疗保险和医疗补助计划。但一个繁荣的国家，不应该只为像我这样，天生在某方面有优势(这可不是我的功劳)的人提供富足生活。我只是碰巧擅长资本配置。其实我也可能天生擅长……我不知道，比如说成为一名出色的尤克里里演奏家。但从事我现在的工作能赚更多钱。",[19,571,572],{},"罗斯：有时候也能两者兼顾。",[19,574,575],{},"巴菲特：嗯，不过这种情况不常见。反正我不行。但我做的事情确实更赚钱。我们不能破坏能够激发人们最大潜能的市场体系，但市场体系在财富分配方面并不完美。税收是一种手段，既能调节市场体系产生的财富分配不均，又能照顾那些在市场竞争中处于劣势的人。在像美国这样繁荣的国家，不应该有人过得太过艰难。",[19,577,578],{},"罗斯：你知道，有些人听到你这么说，会说：沃伦这是在谈财富共享。他又这么说了……",[19,580,581],{},"巴菲特：我谈的是共享繁荣。我能过上富足的生活，得益于周围的社会环境。把我扔到某个贫穷国家，我说我会资本配置，他们可能会说，那又怎样？我们需要的是身强力壮的人。可我没什么力气。",[19,583,584],{},"罗斯：但你能干划船之类的吧？",[19,586,587],{},"巴菲特：嗯，好吧。但比如这周末要是有两个中量级拳击手在付费电视上比赛，我花49.95 美元观看，可两周后我可能就不记得他们的名字了。他们能受益，很大程度上不是因为自身的天赋，而是有人发明了电视，又发明了有线电视，还学会了把能容纳1.5 万人的体育场观众数量变成3 亿人。所以我们都从社会分工中受益。像我这样的人受益更多。我一个人可做不到这些。把我扔到荒岛上，你肯定不想跟我在同一个岛上。",[19,589,590],{},"罗斯：还有这个问题。布什政府表示，经济危机爆发时，他们采取了相应策略。他们担心奥巴马政府的做法，是在构建一种政府与经济关系的新态度。",[19,592,593],{},"巴菲特：我觉得奥巴马政府并不想让政府接管经济。但他们确实面临着……顺便说一句，我要肯定布什政府在 2008 年最后四五个月的表现。他们做了很多正确的事。比如George Bush 说，如果资金不松动，经济可能就跌入深渊了。就经济层面而言，这是非常深刻的见解。在那一刻，他在我心中就是首席经济学家。所以我也认可他们的做法。但奥巴马政府接管通用汽车，并不是因为他们想经营通用汽车。Barack Obama 可不是从小就梦想着管理整个美国经济。他们……",[19,595,596],{},"罗斯：不过他说不定想买条铁路呢。",[19,598,599],{},"巴菲特：嗯，也有可能。他可以从我这儿买。",[19,601,602],{},"罗斯：这是个有趣的话题，接着说",[19,604,605],{},"巴菲特：他们在做自己认为必要的事，来让经济重回正轨。在这件事上，没人能做出完美的决策。他们做的一些事，肯定也是自己不喜欢做的。我觉得他们并不想经营通用汽车、克莱斯勒、AIG 集团这些公司，还有救助房地美和房利美，这可没什么乐趣。巴拉克·奥巴马希望经济更加繁荣，秉持让美国繁荣的那些原则，但我认为他确实想确保底层20-30%的人，能比过去20 年过得更好，因为在过去20 年里，顶层的人已经非常富足了。",[19,607,608],{},"罗斯：所以，那些认为奥巴马政府有什么新\"社会主义\"想法的人，你可不认同这种说法。这就引出了另一个问题，先不说国会有没有意愿，关键是如何建立一个新的监管框架和体系。一方面，政府表示让美联储来负责监管；另一方面，Chris Dodd 说不行；Barney Frank 则持中间态度。你是什么看法呢？",[19,610,611],{},"巴菲特：我百分之百支持美联储的独立性。如果中央银行直接或间接地通过某些机制屈从于国会的意志，那将是一场灾难。",[19,613,614],{},"罗斯：谁想干涉他们的货币政策决定、监管之类的事务……",[19,616,617],{},"巴菲特：是啊，我们只能寄希望于有一位出色的美联储主席和优秀的委员，总体来说我们还是做到了这一点。保罗·沃尔克对美国走出1979-1982 年那段困境至关重要。本·伯南克在去年9 月让我们避免陷入深渊。我们需要一个独立的美联储，我认为每个国家都需要一个独立的央行。",[19,619,620],{},"罗斯：但这意味着美联储也应该承担监管职责吗？",[19,622,623],{},"巴菲特：总得有人来监管，银行确实需要监管。",[19,625,626],{},"罗斯：我们需要一个大一统的监管机构吗，就像……",[19,628,629],{},"巴菲特：如果由我决定，我会希望有这样一个机构。因为我们需要一个强有力的监管者。如果放任自流，人们会过度借贷。也许今年或明年不会，但金融机构，尤其是那些承诺每个季度都要提高每股收益的机构，会进行表外业务等各种违规操作，就像几年前那样。房地美和房利美就犯了很多这样的错误，而它们是由国会监管的。",[19,631,632],{},"美国最重要的五六家金融机构中，有两家是由国会监管的，结果一塌糊涂。所以，监管工作很难做，但我们需要一个独立、有实权，而且希望是真正了解如何维持金融体系良好运转的监管者。",[19,634,635],{},"罗斯：每天都有200 名监管人员出入它们的办公室。你认为美联储就很合适？",[19,637,638],{},"巴菲特：我觉得他们很擅长。没错。虽然这次他们也不完美，但国会也没好到哪儿去。",[19,640,641],{},"罗斯：但问题出现后，他们做出了反应，你非常钦佩伯南克。",[19,643,644],{},"巴菲特：要是他没有相应的权力，甚至如果他当时认为自己有比实际更多一点的权力，结果不堪设想，所以这也有一定道理。当时必须有人站出来，为货币基金提供担保，维持商业票据的流通，做这些不是谁都能做到的事。国会肯定没办法这么迅速地做出反应，而速度至关重要。当时根本没有太多时间拯救美国经济这个\"病人\"。",[19,646,647],{},"罗斯：他们也明白这一点。并且做出了反应，获得并运用了很大的权力。还有一个问题，不能设定一个固定的杠杆率吗？比如说，规定最高只能是15：1。",[19,649,650],{},"巴菲特：不行。如果一家银行持有的全是短期政府债券，它的杠杆率可以达到50：1；但如果一家银行把大量资金贷给了从事各种投机活动、已经加了杠杆的人，5：1 的杠杆率都太高了。所以单纯规定数字没什么用。",[19,652,653],{},"罗斯：那什么方法有用呢？",[19,655,656],{},"巴菲特：这就是问题所在。如果规定几个比率就能解决问题，那就简单了。",[19,658,659],{},"罗斯：但到底什么方法有用呢？我是说，这是个难题，给我一个可能的解决办法吧。",[19,661,662],{},"巴菲特：我希望有一个非常睿智、强有力的监管者，他能理解不同类型杠杆的细微差别及其潜在影响。不仅能针对单个机构制定并执行规则，还能向公众发声。虽然不能频繁发声，但一旦发声就要切中要害，向公众说明普遍存在的问题。这正是我们所需要的。问题并不在于某家银行，而是当时出现了一个所有人都参与的泡沫。能站出来指出这一点，需要很大的勇气，而且可能会被忽视。不过，如果是美联储主席或者美国总统这样的人发声，肯定会产生影响。",[19,664,665],{},"罗斯：你说过不赞成对金融机构过度宽容，希望能采取更严厉的措施。能讲讲你的想法吗？",[19,667,668],{},"巴菲特：我的意思是，金融机构由于资本集中，极有可能引发问题。如果经营一家金融机构，一旦这家机构的问题严重到，除非联邦政府介入，否则会拖垮整个金融体系的地步。到了这种地步，我认为相关人员应该受到严惩。他们不应该带着大笔钱财离开，甚至不应该保留之前10%的净资产。而且选择并允许其这样经营的董事会成员也应该承担后果。我不是说要对他们严惩不",[19,670,671],{},"贷，但我要让他们付出沉重代价。说真的……",[19,673,674],{},"罗斯：怎么让他们付出代价呢？比如，不让他们买保险？",[19,676,677],{},"巴菲特：不，对于那些大型金融机构，如果它们不得不向政府求助，而政府也必须采取行动，毕竟总会有\"大而不能倒\"的机构存在。这让监管者很头疼，但这就是现实。如果一家机构跑来跟政府说：要是我们倒闭了，整个国家都得跟着遭殃。我认为这样的机构，其董事会成员和CEO，尤其是董事会成员，应该退还......比如说，退还过去一年中获得的最高薪酬的五倍。因为现在有些董事会成员每年能拿20-30 万美元，我花这些钱，是希望他们能选拔并设计出一套合理的薪酬体系，让CEO 同时也能成为首席风险官。我希望他们建立的体系能对违规者进行严厉惩罚，如果他们选错了人，或者对违规行为听之任之，那他们自己也应该付出代价。",[19,679,680],{},"罗斯：好的。所以，你希望对不履行职责的董事会成员进行惩罚。但你也承认，金融机构\"大而不能倒\"的情况过去存在，将来也会继续存在。不能简单地说，不管一家机构规模有多大、后果有多严重，都任由其倒闭。",[19,682,683],{},"巴菲特：当然不能，如果那样，每个街角就只能剩下夫妻店式的小银行了，这根本行不通。",[19,685,686],{},"罗斯：你觉得金融界人士有愧疚感吗？",[19,688,689],{},"巴菲特：嗯，大多数人其实没做错什么。那些导致金融机构陷入困境的负责人，很多都已经离开了。但他们离开的时候，带走的钱比我认为合理的要多。让美国民众愤怒的是，在奥马哈这样的地方，很多人经历了失业，看到自己或朋友的房子被银行收回。而那些对这些问题负有重大责任的金融机构负责人，没人进监狱。在民众看来，这些机构的负责人，也许财富从1 亿美元缩水到了1000 万美元，但他们没有受到应有的惩罚。",[19,691,692],{},"罗斯：而且民众觉得，如果自己只是经营一个小生意失败了，根本不会有人来帮忙。",[19,694,695],{},"巴菲特：没错，他们想得没错。如果我的小生意倒闭了，对美国没什么影响。但要是房地美、房利美、或者美国国际集团、花旗银行这些机构倒闭会影响整个美国。我们不能眼睁睁看着多米诺骨牌倒下。",[19,697,698],{},"人们很气愤，但也没办法。要是当年9 月12-14 日那个周末，再多倒几张\"多米诺骨牌\"，比如美林证券倒闭后，摩根士丹利也跟着倒下……",[19,700,701],{},"罗斯：如果没有政府干预，它们肯定会倒闭。",[19,703,704],{},"巴菲特：肯定会。但要知道，有人说这存在道德风险，其实根本不存在。看看花旗银行，90%的市值都没了。再看看房地美，市值缩水超过90%。房利美、美国国际集团，都是如此。股东们损失惨重，几乎血本无归。",[19,706,707],{},"所以，花旗银行、房地美、房利美、美国国际集团这些公司的股东，没人会觉得\"哈哈，反正有体制救我\"，因为他们并没有得到拯救，反而损失巨大。但那些高层管理人员，大多数并没有受到太大损失，可犯错的却是他们。他们本应该付出更大的代价。",[19,709,710],{},"罗斯：那政府应该怎么做呢？",[19,712,713],{},"巴菲特：对于这类机构，我可能会规定，相关人员在离职五年内都不能从经营这些机构中获取巨额财富。我会设置严格的限制和资金追回条款，态度会非常强硬。如果董事会成员没有建立相应的制度，我也会对他们进行严惩。",[19,715,716],{},"罗斯：现在，听听金融高管们的说法，他们说支持追回条款，也已经实施了相关措施。但我不确定他们是不是真的落实了……",[19,718,719],{},"巴菲特：他们确实做了一些，但力度还不够，我可能会加大力度。而且我不会允许他们购买董事和高管责任保险。伯克希尔就不买这种保险。如果我们的股东利益受损，我希望自己和董事会成员也一起承担后果。我们既然承担了这份责任，如果公司出了问题，我们不应该率先逃生。",[19,721,722],{},"巴菲特：确实很好。",[19,724,725],{},"罗斯：书里也提到了你。那段时间，你接到很多人的电话……",[19,727,728],{},"巴菲特：都是来要钱的。(笑声)",[19,730,731],{},"罗斯：所以大多是来要钱的。回顾那段时间，有没有你拒绝了，但后来觉得或许应该答应的情况呢？我是",[19,733,734],{},"说，你有没有这种想法……",[19,736,737],{},"巴菲特：这就好比站在击球区，球飞过来，你只有半秒时间决定要不要挥棒。所以，我会说我本可以做出更明智的决策。或者说那段时间我没有做到最优决策。",[19,739,740],{},"罗斯：我知道你不会为此纠结。因为你有钱，他们需要钱，为了拿到救命钱，他们愿意付出很大代价。",[19,742,743],{},"巴菲特：没错，而且后来股市又跌了六个月，跌幅还很大。如果当时我把钱留着，六个月后再投入股市，肯定比当时做那些投资划算得多。但当时我并不知道这些。",[19,745,746],{},"罗斯：所以你说过，你很乐观，但不确定这种乐观是否合理。",[19,748,749],{},"巴菲特：我不会试图抄底。当接到电话，觉得投资可行，而且我又有钱的时候，我就会行动。我不会想着明天或者后天再做会更好。但大多数投资方案我都觉得不可行。",[19,751,752],{},"罗斯：但你也告诉过我，投资机会并不多。",[19,754,755],{},"巴菲特：大额投资的机会确实不多。",[19,757,758],{},"罗斯：看看BNSF 铁路公司这笔投资，涉及的资金量很大。",[19,760,761],{},"巴菲特：没错。而且这类投资很难捡到便宜，价格并不低。",[19,763,764],{},"罗斯：但这笔投资划算吗？",[19,766,767],{},"巴菲特：不算便宜(not a bargain)。",[19,769,770],{},"罗斯：我也这么认为，所以才问你。",[19,772,773],{},"巴菲特：虽然不便宜，但对伯克希尔来说，在未来一个世纪，这是一项优质资产。",[19,775,776],{},"罗斯：但这会不会限制你的投资选择呢？比如说，明天出现了一个绝佳的投资机会，而你之前并不知道，你会说\"天哪……\"吗？",[19,778,779],{},"巴菲特：有可能。比如，如果联合太平洋铁路公司以半价出售，但是查理，我根本不担心这种情况。",[19,781,782],{},"罗斯：所以，当我们回顾这段时期，对于一个喜欢了解当下发生的事情以及未来走向的人来说，你之前跟我说过，如果有人过来跟你说：沃伦，我能告诉你未来40 年的样子。你所有的疑问，我都能解答。你甚至愿意牺牲生命的最后一年去换取这个机会。",[19,784,785],{},"巴菲特：或者就让我看看未来40 年的发展。哪怕最后一年我不在人世了，但能看到未来40 年的变化也值了。就像Chauncey Gardiner 一样，他就喜欢观察世事。",[19,787,788],{},"罗斯：所以，总结一下，我们最终会走出困境的。",[19,790,791],{},"巴菲特：绝对会。",[19,793,794],{},"罗斯：我们确实有一些实际问题需要解决。财政赤字就是其中之一。还有如何从这次危机中吸取教训，找到有效的监管方式。要相信，我们能走到今天，是因为拥有独特的技能。回顾1776 年，看看当初那一小群人做的事情，再看看我们如今的成就，这会对美国感到乐观，同时也对世界感到乐观。尤其是随着经济重心向亚洲转移。",[19,796,797],{},"巴菲特：过去几百年我们积累的经验教训，在世界许多地方被吸收借鉴，这是很棒的事情。人们看到了成功的范例，并且明智地借鉴其中一些经验，将那些让我们成功的要素融入他们自己的体系中。但这并不意味着我们失去了这些要素。他们能够利用这些要素，并不代表我们就不能用了。",[19,799,800],{},"在我人生的每一年年初，我都能在本子上写下十几个影响经济的潜在问题。当人们说\"现在时局不明朗，我不买股票\"的时候，我会问他们：2001 年9 月10 日的时候,时局就明朗吗？当时你们觉得局势稳定，但第二天就发生了意外。1987 年10 月18 日，在道琼斯指数暴跌22%之前，情况也是如此。",[19,802,803],{},[95,804,805],{},"短期来看，世事总是充满不确定性。真正确定的是，长期以来行之有效的因素，未来也会继续发挥作用。所以，明天总是不确定的，下一个小时也总是不确定的。但从长远来看，未来是相当确定的。",[19,807,808],{},"罗斯：沃伦，谢谢你。每次见到你都很开心。",[19,810,811],{},"巴菲特：谢谢你。",[19,813,814],{},"罗斯：沃伦·巴菲特，感谢你花一小时参与我们的节目。非常感谢你加入我们，下次再见。",[816,817],"hr",{},{"title":819,"searchDepth":820,"depth":820,"links":821},"",2,[822],{"id":16,"depth":820,"text":17},"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特接受查理·罗斯专访，谈论伯克希尔以260亿美元收购BNSF铁路的逻辑，强调基础设施的长期投资价值。","md",{},true,85,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":5,"description":825},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":884,"slug":885,"category":823,"order":882},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":887,"slug":888,"category":849,"order":882},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":890,"slug":891,"category":841,"order":892},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":894,"slug":895,"category":823,"order":892},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":897,"slug":898,"category":849,"order":892},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":900,"slug":901,"category":841,"order":902},"1961年中 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":1145,"slug":1146,"category":823,"order":1143},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":1148,"slug":1149,"category":849,"order":1143},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1151,"slug":1152,"category":1022,"order":1153},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":1155,"slug":1156,"category":823,"order":1153},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":1158,"slug":1159,"category":849,"order":1153},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1161,"slug":1162,"category":841,"order":1163},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":1165,"slug":1166,"category":823,"order":1163},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":1168,"slug":1169,"category":849,"order":1163},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1171,"slug":1172,"category":841,"order":1173},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":1175,"slug":1176,"category":823,"order":1173},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1178,"slug":1179,"category":1022,"order":1180},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":1182,"slug":1183,"category":823,"order":1180},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1185,"slug":1186,"category":841,"order":1187},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":1189,"slug":1190,"category":823,"order":1187},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":1192,"slug":1193,"category":841,"order":1194},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":1196,"slug":1197,"category":823,"order":1194},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":1199,"slug":1200,"category":841,"order":1201},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":1203,"slug":1204,"category":823,"order":1201},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1206,"slug":1207,"category":841,"order":1208},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1210,"slug":1211,"category":823,"order":1208},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1213,"slug":1214,"category":1022,"order":1215},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1217,"slug":1218,"category":823,"order":1215},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1220,"slug":1221,"category":841,"order":1222},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1224,"slug":1225,"category":823,"order":1222},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1227,"slug":1228,"category":1022,"order":1229},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1231,"slug":1232,"category":823,"order":1229},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1234,"slug":1235,"category":1022,"order":1236},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1238,"slug":1239,"category":823,"order":1236},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1241,"slug":1242,"category":1022,"order":1243},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1245,"slug":1246,"category":823,"order":1243},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1248,"slug":1249,"category":1022,"order":1250},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1252,"slug":1253,"category":823,"order":1250},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1255,"slug":1256,"category":1022,"order":1257},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1259,"slug":1260,"category":823,"order":1257},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1262,"slug":1263,"category":1022,"order":1264},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1266,"slug":1267,"category":823,"order":1264},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1269,"slug":1270,"category":1022,"order":1271},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1273,"slug":1274,"category":823,"order":1271},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1276,"slug":1277,"category":1022,"order":1278},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1280,"slug":1281,"category":823,"order":1278},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1283,"slug":1284,"category":1022,"order":1285},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1287,"slug":1288,"category":823,"order":1285},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1290,"slug":1291,"category":1022,"order":1292},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1294,"slug":1295,"category":823,"order":1292},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1297,"slug":1298,"category":1022,"order":1299},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1301,"slug":1302,"category":823,"order":1299},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1304,"slug":1305,"category":1022,"order":1306},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1308,"slug":1309,"category":823,"order":1306},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1311,"slug":1312,"category":1022,"order":1313},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1315,"slug":1316,"category":823,"order":1313},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1318,"slug":1319,"category":1022,"order":1320},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1322,"slug":1323,"category":823,"order":1320},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1325,"slug":1326,"category":1022,"order":1327},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1329,"slug":1330,"category":823,"order":1327},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1332,"slug":1333,"category":1022,"order":1334},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1336,"slug":1337,"category":823,"order":1334},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1339,"slug":1340,"category":1022,"order":1341},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1343,"slug":1344,"category":823,"order":1341},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1346,"slug":1347,"category":1022,"order":1348},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1350,"slug":1351,"category":823,"order":1348},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1353,"slug":1354,"category":1022,"order":1355},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1357,"slug":1358,"category":823,"order":1355},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1360,"slug":1361,"category":1022,"order":1362},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1364,"slug":1365,"category":823,"order":1362},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1367,"slug":1368,"category":1022,"order":1369},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1371,"slug":1372,"category":823,"order":1369},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1374,"slug":1375,"category":1022,"order":1376},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1378,"slug":1379,"category":823,"order":1376},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1381,"slug":1382,"category":1022,"order":1383},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1385,"slug":1386,"category":823,"order":1383},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1388,"slug":1389,"category":1022,"order":1390},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1392,"slug":1393,"category":823,"order":1390},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1395,"slug":1396,"category":1022,"order":1397},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1399,"slug":1400,"category":823,"order":1397},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1402,"slug":1403,"category":1022,"order":1404},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1406,"slug":1407,"category":823,"order":1404},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1409,"slug":1410,"category":1022,"order":1411},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1413,"slug":1414,"category":823,"order":1411},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1416,"slug":1417,"category":1022,"order":1418},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1420,"slug":1421,"category":823,"order":1418},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1423,"slug":1424,"category":1022,"order":1425},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1427,"slug":1428,"category":823,"order":1425},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1430,"slug":1431,"category":1022,"order":1432},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1434,"slug":1435,"category":823,"order":1432},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1437,"slug":1438,"category":1022,"order":1439},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1441,"slug":1442,"category":823,"order":1439},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1444,"slug":1445,"category":1022,"order":1446},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1448,"slug":1449,"category":823,"order":1446},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1451,"slug":1452,"category":1022,"order":1453},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1455,"slug":1456,"category":823,"order":1453},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1458,"slug":1459,"category":1022,"order":1460},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1462,"slug":1463,"category":823,"order":1460},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1465,"slug":1466,"category":1022,"order":1467},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1469,"slug":1470,"category":823,"order":1467},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1472,"slug":1473,"category":1022,"order":1474},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1476,"slug":1477,"category":823,"order":1474},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1479,"slug":1480,"category":1022,"order":1481},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1483,"slug":1484,"category":823,"order":1481},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1486,"slug":1487,"category":1022,"order":1488},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1490,"slug":1491,"category":823,"order":1488},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1493,"slug":1494,"category":1022,"order":1495},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1497,"slug":1498,"category":823,"order":1495},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1500,"slug":1501,"category":1022,"order":1502},"2010 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巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1585,"slug":1586,"category":823,"order":1583},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1588,"slug":1589,"category":1022,"order":1590},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1592,"slug":1593,"category":823,"order":1590},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1595,"slug":1596,"category":1022,"order":1597},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1599,"slug":1600,"category":823,"order":1597},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1602,"slug":1603,"category":1022,"order":1604},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1606,"slug":1607,"category":823,"order":1604},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1609,"slug":1610,"category":1022,"order":1611},"2024 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年哥伦比亚大学高校面谈——人生最美好的事是什么？》","ba-fei-te-2017-nian-ge-lun-bi-ya-da-xue-gao-xiao-mian-tan-ren-sheng-zui-mei-hao-de-shi-shi-shi-me",120,{"title":1717,"slug":1718,"category":823,"order":1719},"巴菲特：2017年对话北京大学学生：最好的投资是投资自己","ba-fei-te-2017nian-dui-hua-bei-jing-da-xue-xue-sheng-zui-hao-de-tou-zi-shi-tou-zi-zi-ji",121,{"title":1721,"slug":1722,"category":823,"order":1723},"巴菲特：2017年接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",122,{"title":1725,"slug":1726,"category":823,"order":1727},"巴菲特：2017年接受PBS 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