[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1937},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":401,"library-sidebar-dao":1403,"library-sidebar-models":1705},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":387,"date":388,"description":389,"extension":390,"meta":391,"navigation":392,"order":393,"path":394,"seo":395,"seoDescription":389,"seoTitle":396,"slug":397,"stem":398,"__hash__":399,"_collection":400},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang.md","巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":361},"minimark",[9,13,18,22,25,28,31,36,39,47,51,58,61,67,78,84,88,91,94,98,113,116,122,126,132,137,140,144,150,153,159,162,166,176,180,183,186,190,193,196,200,206,209,212,216,219,226,229,233,236,239,243,248,251,256,260,263,266,269,273,280,287,291,298,304,308,315,318,322,325,328,332,337,343,348,353,358],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2002年哥大商学院演讲",[14,15,17],"h2",{"id":16},"巴菲特哥大商学院演讲2002","巴菲特：哥大商学院演讲2002",[19,20,21],"p",{},"2002 年5 月9 日",[19,23,24],{},"2002 年5 月9 日星期四晚上，哥伦比亚商学院价值投资研讨会，邀请沃伦巴菲特和沃尔特施洛斯(Walter",[19,26,27],{},"Schloss)作为演讲嘉宾，布鲁斯格林沃尔德教授(Bruce Greenwald)担任主持人，BigPimpyGuy 有幸参与其中，以下是他的笔记。(我并不保证所有内容都完全准确，但我认为我至少捕捉到了所有内容的正确含义)。",[19,29,30],{},"如果说沃伦巴菲特是价值投资领域的BabeRuth(美国职业棒球运动员，原效力于红袜队，1918 年被卖到扬基队，发下圣婴诅咒，他带领扬基取得多次世界大赛冠军，是美国职棒史上1920、30 年代的扬基强打者，曾经连续三次打破大联盟全垒打纪录，1936 年入选棒球名人堂)，那么86 岁的沃尔特施洛斯就是Ty Cobb(美国棒球名人堂球员。当他1928 年退休时，他是9 项美国职棒纪录的保持者。他也是首届棒球名人堂得票率最高的球员)和 Satchel Paige(非裔棒球选手，美国职棒大联盟史上曾经出赛和第一次出赛年纪最老的球员，他最后一次在大联盟出场比赛时已59 岁)的结合体。巴菲特提到了施洛斯过去47 年的非凡业绩。施洛斯声称在此期间的年化税前回报率为20.9%。 Greenwald 随后指出，负责去介绍一个显然不需要介绍的人是一种多么奇特的感觉。他称巴菲特为\"投资界的Rose Blumkin\"。巴菲特接过话筒，在谈到施洛斯的长寿时，巴菲特说他希望人们在他的葬礼上说：\"天哪，他太老了！\"他说他结婚已50 年了，并说和苏茜结婚是\"唯一比参加格雷厄姆课程更好的事情\"。接下来是提问，他对任何与业务或个人相关的问题都敞开大门。看过巴菲特演讲的人都知道，这些问题都很常规的，但让演讲变得有趣的是巴菲特的回答方式。在长达2 个多小时的问答过程中，巴菲特一直靠着桌子站着，身边放着樱桃可乐。",[32,33,35],"h3",{"id":34},"_1关于期权我们知道你不喜欢期权但你拥有的公司呢","1.关于期权：我们知道你不喜欢期权，但你拥有的公司呢？",[19,37,38],{},"巴菲特只知道有两家公司将期权费用化(SFAS123 允许这样做，但由于显而易见的原因，很多公司并没有这样做)，它们是Boeing 波音公司和Winn-Dixie 公司(一家总部位于佛罗里达州的零售超市连锁店。公司成立于1925年，目前在美国东南部的十个州拥有超过500 家门店)。目前曼哈顿一家公司正在投票决定期权是否费用化。在大多数情况下，期权并不能很好地提供正确的激励措施。在伯克希尔的所有子公司中，GenRe 的员工在过去几年中从期权中获得的收益，远远超过伯克希尔其他员工。GenRe 惨淡的业绩表明期权激励是多么的反复无常。具体到伯克希尔，给予任何人期权都没有意义。子公司经理影响业绩的任何行为都会被整体业务组合的变动所淹没。伯克希尔子公司经理人的薪酬安排是在几分钟内制定并达成一致的，不需要薪酬顾问。在各个领域，薪酬计划都很疯狂。",[19,40,41,42,46],{},"巴菲特有一个信封，上面写着他的继任者的名字。(这张纸条上写的第一句话就是\"再检查一下我的脉搏\"。)期权对巴菲特来说是合理的，因为他负责BRK 的整体业务。",[43,44,45],"strong",{},"这些期权的两个关键特征是：授予的行权价等于内在价值或市场价值的较大值。它们将包括资本成本效应，因此行权价格应逐年上升","。一般来说，期权是很糟糕的。期权本身并没有什么问题。在巴菲特有限合伙公司中，他有期权：也就是任何超过6%的回报的25%。但是，他没有工资，而且这些期权包括资本成本。",[32,48,50],{"id":49},"_2华尔街日报最近的排版形式的变化有点向今日美国靠拢是否会侵蚀其护城河","2.《华尔街日报》最近的排版形式的变化(有点向《今日美国》靠拢)是否会侵蚀其护城河？",[19,52,53,54,57],{},"WSJ 是一个有趣的案例。30 年前，道琼斯公司拥有全球金融信息。他们没有竞争对手。当时，大多数报纸都是按地域划分人口的。而WSJ 的编辑通过按兴趣划分人口，将发行量从5 万份增加到150 万份。他们的读者群具有惊人的人口统计学特征。在过去的30 年里，金融信息一直是一个增长型行业。但道琼斯错过了这一机遇。他们的业务被CNBC 和彭博社Bloomberg 抢走了。",[43,55,56],{},"他们变得非常自满","。15 年间，他们从《财富》\"最受尊敬公司榜单的第2 名跌至第200 名左右。",[19,59,60],{},"巴菲特将其比作经典可口可乐对新可口可乐。1980 年代，百事可乐在全美开展\"百事可乐挑战赛\"，并取得了胜利。可口可乐的人不愿承认这一点，但在1985 年，百事可乐把他们逼得走投无路。在口味测试中，美国人总是会选择更甜的产品。百事可乐的热量比可口可乐高，而且更甜。因此，可口可乐决定增加一些甜度\u002F卡路里来与之竞争。在推出新可乐之前，他们在30 万人口中进行了测试，涵盖了所有可能的人群。百事可乐利用了新可乐，称新可乐的推出是对老可乐的产品召回。实际上，百事可乐在这一天宣布公司放假，并在新可乐正式发布的前一天投放了广告：哪个家伙眨眼了。事实证明，可乐配方非常神秘。只有两个人知道它，它被锁在SunTrust 银行的保险库里等等。实际上，可口可乐可以生产百事可乐，百事可乐也可以生产可口可乐。您可以分析出配方。百事可乐曾一度打算推出一款名为Savannah 可乐的产品，其配方与老可乐相同。他们面临的唯一问题是配方中的一种成分难以获得，因为几乎整个生产过程都被可口可乐公司收购了。渐渐地，他们获得了这种成分，并在两周内推出了这款产品，而此时可口可乐公司终于答应恢复生产经典可口可乐。",[19,62,63,64],{},"就像喜诗糖果一样。在东部地区，喜诗糖果的知名度并不高，但在加州，3300 万人都会对喜诗糖果的名字产生反应。",[43,65,66],{},"当加州人把一块喜诗糖果放进嘴里时，他们会非常愉悦。当你告诉他们这是喜诗时，他们会更加喜欢。这就是体验过程中所有想法的结合。",[19,68,69,70,74,75],{},"几年前，可口可乐公司的CEO 在谈到一种自动售货机可以根据天气变化改变价格，在炎热的天气里提高价格时，惹上了麻烦。",[71,72,73],"span",{},"巴菲特：至少说得像你在寒冷的天气里降价一样。","如果每份8 盎司饮料价格提高1 美分，而每天的供应量超过10 亿份，那么每年就有40 亿美元的收入，而这一切都是因为每份提高0.01 美元。",[43,76,77],{},"在人们心目中保持良好的印象至关重要。",[79,80,81],"blockquote",{},[19,82,83],{},"(注：关于谈到可口可乐的\"感觉\"有多么重要，以及当人们想到可乐时会联想到什么。事实上，当人们说RC可乐时，没有人会有什么反应，但说到可口可乐时，我们每个人都会有某种反应。百事可乐一直在盲测挑战中击败可口可乐。新可乐在盲测中一直击败老可乐。然而，出于某种原因，当可口可乐改变配方时，人们却大为光火。这就是可乐理念的根深蒂固。)",[32,85,87],{"id":86},"_3关于年会上有关核攻击的评论伯克希尔保险公司是如何适应的","3.关于年会上有关核攻击的评论，伯克希尔保险公司是如何适应的？",[19,89,90],{},"伯克希尔承保的恐怖主义保险可能比其他任何人都多。令人吃惊的是，这些保险几乎都是在核生化战NCB 除外责任范围内销售的。也有一些保单没有排除NCB 责任，但数量不多。**不排除掉NCB 责任，很多保险伯克希尔无法承保。**世界贸易中心恐袭事件是史上最大的工人赔偿事件，大约18 亿美元的工人赔偿索赔。前几天，伯克希尔承保了一份时效性地震保险，只有在地震发生在早上6 点到下午6 点之间才会赔付。1994 年的Northridge 地震本来是一起巨大的工伤事故，但它发生在凌晨4:30。",[19,92,93],{},"关于他对美国大城市遭受核攻击的预测：明年发生任何事情(NCB)的可能性都很低，但未来10 年，发生的可能性会增加，世界上有很多人憎恨我们，而且技术也在不断进步。未来50 年发生的可能性几乎可以确定。在1960 年代初，只有两个国家拥有核能力，而我们却差点搞砸了。现在这种可能性更大大了，因为拥有核能力的人更多了。(注：几年前有一部关于古巴导弹危机的电影《Thirteen Days》)",[32,95,97],{"id":96},"_4brk-有快速交易和握手成交的历史基于安然式的财务欺骗是否发生了变化","4.BRK 有快速交易和握手成交的历史。基于安然式的财务欺骗是否发生了变化？",[19,99,100,101,104,105,108,109,112],{},"没有发生变化。巴菲特谈的是如何与定制框架制造商Larson-Juhl 完成交易。他接到电话，并在电话上谈了 20 分钟，听取了财务状况和价格，然后卖家飞到奥马哈。\"我从未见过这家公司。我希望它就在那里\"。巴菲特模仿了一些骗子：\"嘿，这个月我们应该向沃伦报告什么数字？",[43,102,103],{},"这是一项伟大的生意，价格不是购买定制相框的一个因素","。有大量的小型框架企业，仅在奥马哈就有几十家。LJ 为他们提供服务，通常在一天内交付产品。\"我可以给你1 亿美元(我不会真那么做)来建立一个公司来与之竞争。你无法做到。",[43,106,107],{},"它的规模不会翻番，但它是一项伟大的事业。我可以看到该业务的持久优势","。你不能把它搞砸\"。我们只是没有花很多时间研究交易。这就像教授有效市场理论课。你第一天走进教室，然后说\"所有东西的价格都是正确的\"。然后呢？你还需要说什么？你不需要那么多时间。",[43,110,111],{},"如果机会不是一目了然，那么经过一年的尽职调查也不会一目了然","。(以克莱斯勒和福特为例)。",[19,114,115],{},"然后又进入了Mars 士力架和箭牌的例子。士力架40 年来一直是最畅销的糖果，也许10 年后仍会如此。如果你10 年前还在嚼薄荷口香糖，那么今天你仍然在嚼。这些都是伟大的企业。如果你走进一家商店想买士力架巧克力棒，而柜台后面的人给你提供了一款价格只要5 美分巧克力棒，同样的口味，同样的粘度，但它叫Joe's 巧克力棒，你肯定不会买。",[19,117,118,119],{},"尽职调查他们是否有不良租约，或坏账准备金是否过低，等等这些都无关紧要。",[43,120,121],{},"重要的是持久的竞争优势。",[32,123,125],{"id":124},"_5您认为目前的科技股有价值吗它们是否有永恒的价值伯克希尔会在哪些领域投资科技股","5.您认为目前的科技股有价值吗？它们是否有永恒的价值？伯克希尔会在哪些领域投资科技股？",[19,127,128,131],{},[43,129,130],{},"如果我们可以展望5-10 年，看到持久的竞争优势和高ROE 增长的可能性，那将是我们的投资方向","。我们并不反对投资科技股。(事实上，我甚至不知道是否有宗教反对投资科技股。)",[19,133,134],{},[43,135,136],{},"如果干草堆都是金子做的，就没有理由在草堆里捡金针。",[19,138,139],{},"1993 年，你可以很有把握地买入制药行业。也许你无法找出一两个赢家，但整个行业的经济效益都非常好，而且你知道不会有新的公司来彻底颠覆默克Merck 或先灵葆雅ScheringPlough。",[32,141,143],{"id":142},"_6您能谈谈您没有成功的投资吗","6.您能谈谈您没有成功的投资吗？",[19,145,146,149],{},[43,147,148],{},"错误往往是疏忽造成的，而不是故意造成的。不是错过英特尔或微软，而是那些你了解的业务却无所作为的情况。","\"吮吸拇指\"通常发生在他以x 美元买入一只股票，而这只股票涨到x+1\u002F8 美元时，买入陷入停滞。房利美就是一个例子。疏忽导致伯克希尔损失数十亿美元。",[19,151,152],{},"我们在全美航空上几乎损失惨重。\"当支票上的墨水快干时，他们开始不断亏损\"。还有所罗门的投资。还有",[19,154,155,156],{},"911 保险损失，不是因为它是一场灾难，而是因为承保时，",[43,157,158],{},"恐怖主义风险没有包含在保费中。",[19,160,161],{},"**管理中最大的错误就是没有认识到，非常聪明的人也会做蠢事。**比如LTCM。如果一个组织开始获得动力，就不可能阻止他们。这种情况经常发生在收购中。如果通过的回报率为84.3%，那么该交易的回报率预计为84.4%。如果CEO 想要它，它就会发生。",[32,163,165],{"id":164},"_7当您观察您所收购公司的企业家时您会注意什么您对潜在的企业家有什么建议","7，当您观察您所收购公司的企业家时，您会注意什么？您对潜在的企业家有什么建议？",[19,167,168,171,172,175],{},[43,169,170],{},"我们寻找激情","。巴菲特谈了一会儿飞安国际的创始人Al Ueltschi。",[43,173,174],{},"与他们坐下来谈谈，看看他们是喜欢生意还是喜欢钱","。我们从未从金融交易员手中购买过企业。我们从未参加过拍卖。如果一个人拍卖他的生意，我们就不要他\u002F它。爱钱没有错，只是不适合我们。",[32,177,179],{"id":178},"_8作为业内最优秀的专业人士您是否仍在不断进步","8，作为业内最优秀的专业人士，您是否仍在不断进步？",[19,181,182],{},"(Greenwald 把这个问题解释为\"你还能胜任这份工作吗？\")",[19,184,185],{},"**投资是很好的工作，因为你一直在建立自己的数据库。每年你都会增加一点新的东西进去，而另一端并不会有太多泄漏。投资中的一切都是可累积性的。当他今天听到某件事情时，它在某种程度上与多年经验建立的模型相吻合。**购买GEICO 是巴菲特现有数据库的结果。\"我了解内衣业务\"，所以收购鲜果布衣Fruit of the Loom 的决定并不艰难。(注：这是巴菲特\"无尽职调查\"投资现象的不可分割的一个组成部分。他们不一定在交易前进行尽职调查，正是因为他们每天都在通过增加数据库对公司和行业进行抽象版的尽职调查。)",[32,187,189],{"id":188},"_9石棉赔偿似乎正在加速","9，石棉赔偿似乎正在加速？",[19,191,192],{},"破产公司的索赔正在加速。对于未破产的公司，赔付率实际上没有变化。伯克希尔有一些在正常业务过程中产生的石棉索赔(很多来自GenRe 保险)，还有很多来自追溯保险的索赔。这些交易取",[19,194,195],{},"决于付款时间。伯克希尔在保费要求和递延费用核算方面都比较保守。大多数石棉保险的索赔都是有限额限制的保单。总体而言，付款速度略低于预期。到目前为止，结果完全令人满意。",[32,197,199],{"id":198},"_10在内衣业务中你从hanes-的所有者sara-lee-身上看到了什么其他人没有看到现在仍然没有看到的东西您认为鲜果布衣的ebitda-如何目前哪些股票比较便宜","10，在内衣业务中，你从Hanes 的所有者Sara Lee 身上看到了什么其他人没有看到，现在仍然没有看到的东西？您认为鲜果布衣的EBITDA 如何？目前哪些股票比较便宜？",[19,201,202,205],{},[43,203,204],{},"基本上，息税折旧摊销前利润EBITDA 一文不值","。就内衣业务而言，Hanes 和鲜果布衣占据了很大的市场份额。有一些高端产品如CalvinKlein、Jockey，但这两家公司控制着大众市场。SaraLee 奉行轻资产战略。我们控制着鲜果布衣的资产。你不可能购买另一个版本的鲜果布衣，因为如果你购买了Hanes，就等于购买了SaraLee的其他资产组合。鲜果布衣的税前收益达到1.3-1.4 亿美元也不会感到惊讶。同样，我们讨厌EBITDA。折旧是最糟糕的支出，甚至可以称之为卑鄙，这是一种反向浮存金。",[19,207,208],{},"谈到什么股票最便宜，这听起来像是一个非常理论化的问题。我不会回答这个问题。",[19,210,211],{},"谈到他们如何保持交易的私密性。至于热点是哪些公司，巴菲特永远不会购买光鲜亮丽的股票。金钱并不知道自己是从哪里赚来的。如果您赚到同样多的钱，但却付出更多的钱，那么为一家光鲜的公司付出更多的钱是没有意义的。你完全可以以更低的成本从一家平淡无奇的公司赚到同样多的钱。",[32,213,215],{"id":214},"_11关于不良债务吸引力的一般性问题","11.关于不良债务吸引力的一般性问题",[19,217,218],{},"不良债务本质上并无好坏之分。鲜果布衣是以大约五折的价格买入的。这是一种非常不寻常的债务，因为它在破产程序期间一直支付利息，所以BRK 从中获得了大量现金。关于Finova 的交易：他们在Finova 即将破产之前买下了它，但他们知道Finova 即将破产。关键是如何评估其应收账款组合(约140 亿美元)，巴菲特估计了应收账款的最坏情况，并以此确定了收购价格。",[19,220,221,222,225],{},"比较这两家公司，",[43,223,224],{},"Finova 的关键在于对应收账款组合的评估。鲜果布衣的关键在于对品牌的评估","。与普通股相比，不良债权需要更多的专业知识。在有些债务问题上是可以赚钱的。(在这一点上，巴菲特和施洛斯重提了宾州中央铁路破产案，显然在那里每个人都发了财。这两个人都记得非常详细。)",[19,227,228],{},"我们从未购买过刚刚发行的垃圾债券，因为华尔街有特殊的销售策略。我们是在它们陷入困境时才购买的。",[32,230,232],{"id":231},"_12您如何看待公司出于税收原因在海外重新注册","12.您如何看待公司出于税收原因在海外重新注册？",[19,234,235],{},"我不喜欢这样。我不喜欢那些在美国赚钱却在海外不纳税的人。有一个人试图让自己成为大使，这样他就可以全职住在美国，但仍然是外国公民。我想，如果有这样的机会，我们是不会抓住的，就像我想，如果有100 万美元，我是不会走进银行拿走的。但是，在事情发生之前，你永远不会知道。所有大型会计师事务所都提供税务筹划，但我们对此不感兴趣。我们的纳税申报很简单。",[19,237,238],{},"关于税率：想象一下，在你出生前24 小时，你和一个双胞胎同时出生，一个在美国，一个在孟加拉国。你会将未来收入的多大比例用于在美国出生？很可能是相当高的比例。美国提供了非同寻常的优势。",[32,240,242],{"id":241},"_13备考收益proformaearnings并不好但是你怎么能不考虑备考收益的情况下去看待像brk-这样发生了911-事件的公司","13.备考收益(Proformaearnings)并不好。但是你怎么能不考虑备考收益的情况下，去看待像BRK 这样发生了911 事件的公司？",[19,244,245],{},[43,246,247],{},"你需要着眼于长期结果，但你不能忽视管理层犯错的事实。多看看公司的经常性的盈利能力是不是有变化。",[19,249,250],{},"看看最近这个季度。这是保险业最温和的一个季度，什么都没发生。任何地方都没有巨灾发生。你不会看到保险公司在报告良好业绩时说：\"如果不考虑异常低的索赔水平，我们本季度实际上会报告亏损\"。",[19,252,253],{},[43,254,255],{},"评估伯克希尔有两个关键点：未来10 年内，目前的运营公司将产生多少现金？未来10 年里，这些现金将被用来投资什么有趣的事情？",[32,257,259],{"id":258},"_14关于伯克希尔的海外投资","14.关于伯克希尔的海外投资",[19,261,262],{},"我们希望在海外找到与我们拥有的类似企业。到目前为止，我们还没有找到。2 个问题：在好的企业中，大多数都在美国，因此国外的企业并不多。我们在海外的知名度不高，因此很难接到主动打来的电话。",[19,264,265],{},"提到可口可乐80%的收益来自美国以外地区。我们现在拥有15-20 只股票。其中3 只股票完全在美国境外。我们很乐意以我们所拥有的股票的价格全部拥有这3 支股票中的任何一支。",[19,267,268],{},"一个问题是披露报告要求非常严格。在美国，你必须在获得一家公司5%的股份时披露持仓。如果你是一家保险公司，你必须在获得一家公司10%的股份时披露，如果你获得的股份在5-10%之间，你可以等到年底再披露。在其他国家，这一门槛较低。在英国，持有3%的所有权要求披露，因此我们的买入是有限的。",[32,270,272],{"id":271},"_15在投资合伙公司中缺乏对所投资企业的管理控制如何影响决策","15.在投资合伙公司中，缺乏对所投资企业的管理控制如何影响决策？",[19,274,275,276,279],{},"反正我们的影响力很小，即使作为董事也是如此，所以没什么大不了的。",[43,277,278],{},"作为董事，你很少能改变航向，也不能经常试图改变航向","。受邀参加聚会的人如果经常在聚会上打嗝，就会发现自己不再受邀。",[19,281,282,283,286],{},"**即使是100%控股的公司，我们也会接受管理层做出的那些，我们自己不会做出的决定。**从长远来看，这些决定可能至少与我们本来会做的决定一样好。",[43,284,285],{},"更重要的是，它允许经理们将公司视为\"他们自己\"的企业","。如果我在他的身后做决定，你认为拥有10 亿美元伯克希尔股票的Al Ueltschi 会愿意继续经营他的企业吗？",[32,288,290],{"id":289},"_16您为什么不在价格极高的时候卖东西","16.您为什么不在价格极高的时候卖东西？",[19,292,293,294,297],{},"我们不会以任何价格出售喜诗糖果，即使有人出价3-4 倍于它的价值。为什么？这是我们的怪癖。",[43,295,296],{},"我们很少有机会与好的经理人建立联系。当我们建立联系时，我们不喜欢把它交给别人而毁掉它","。小额股权则不同。巴菲特有限合伙公司则不同。巴菲特的工作是尽可能多地赚钱。现在，他的工作是以一种令人愉快的方式，经营一家表现良好的企业，并希望取得良好业绩。他的目标不再是在任何情况下榨取最后每一美元。",[19,299,300,301],{},"巴菲特还谈到了不卖出企业的名声的好处。当一个人建立一个企业时，他是在建立自己的杰作。",[43,302,303],{},"如果我们购买这幅画，我们提供的是悬挂它，而不是买下它后迅速卖给别人。我告诉潜在卖家，他们可以选择将画作交给伯克希尔，我绝不会告诉他们增加蓝色颜料或减少红色颜料，而只是将其悬挂起来。伯克希尔就是公司博物馆。你的选择是把它挂在博物馆里。",[32,305,307],{"id":306},"_17利率极低您设定的最低基准是多少","17，利率极低。您设定的最低基准是多少？",[19,309,310,311,314],{},"问得好。",[43,312,313],{},"我希望税前利润达到13%","。在过去几年中，我们进行了大约8-10 次收购，我认为这些收购的税前收益率将达到13%。有时利率20%，13%回报率是不能接受的。但相反的情况并不容易获得。",[19,316,317],{},"**我不能随意降低要求的回报率。我宁愿要1.75%的短期回报率，也不愿意购买回报率为8-9%的股票或公司，因为我将永远持有这些股票或公司。这些回报率现在还不错，但足够多的这样的收购，你最终会得到一个非常普通的业务。**因此，在这种低利率环境下，我们现在有大量资金投入债券。要么我们期待获得更多的好机会，要么环境将发生变化。顺便说一句，环境终将发生变化。金融市场的疯狂行为由来已久。你们都还年轻，你们会看到这些事情重演。巴菲特讲了一个故事，说他有一份很老的报纸，一个酿酒师因为过度使用保证金引起的麻烦，在一桶热啤酒中淹死了自己。这些事情还会发生。你会有很多发财的机会，即使现在的环境看起来不像。",[32,319,321],{"id":320},"_18描述hrblock-的竞争优势","18，描述H&RBlock 的竞争优势",[19,323,324],{},"几年前，他们曾有过一个令人失望的季度，但其特许经营权并未受损。市场推动价格下跌。每个人都知道",[19,326,327],{},"H&R。提到报税，就会想到H&R。这里有多少人能说出第2 名。没几个。(显然Cendant 公司算一个)。要多少钱才能击败它们，唯一的办法就是彻底改变税法(例如，改征消费税)。我们愿意以比我们买下的部分高出75%的价格买下整个公司。",[32,329,331],{"id":330},"_19greenwald-最后一个问题我们不再使用第一版证券分析不使用第一版我们错过了什么","19，Greenwald 最后一个问题，我们不再使用第一版《证券分析》。不使用第一版我们错过了什么？",[19,333,334],{},[43,335,336],{},"历史的视角。人们会继续做蠢事。第一版的历史感很好。",[19,338,339,342],{},[43,340,341],{},"历史也许不会重演，但它是总是惊人的相似。","(马克吐温History doesnot repeat itself, but it rhymes.) 投资有三件事很关键：",[19,344,345],{},[43,346,347],{},"1，安全边际是绝对必要的。",[19,349,350],{},[43,351,352],{},"2，将股票视为一项业务。我花了8 年时间购买股票，却从没有这样想过。巴菲特从11 岁开始买股票了。",[19,354,355],{},[43,356,357],{},"3，对市场要有正确的态度。市场是为您服务的，而不是指导您的行动的。太多的人被市场所左右。",[359,360],"hr",{},{"title":362,"searchDepth":363,"depth":363,"links":364},"",2,[365],{"id":16,"depth":363,"text":17,"children":366},[367,369,370,371,372,373,374,375,376,377,378,379,380,381,382,383,384,385,386],{"id":34,"depth":368,"text":35},3,{"id":49,"depth":368,"text":50},{"id":86,"depth":368,"text":87},{"id":96,"depth":368,"text":97},{"id":124,"depth":368,"text":125},{"id":142,"depth":368,"text":143},{"id":164,"depth":368,"text":165},{"id":178,"depth":368,"text":179},{"id":188,"depth":368,"text":189},{"id":198,"depth":368,"text":199},{"id":214,"depth":368,"text":215},{"id":231,"depth":368,"text":232},{"id":241,"depth":368,"text":242},{"id":258,"depth":368,"text":259},{"id":271,"depth":368,"text":272},{"id":289,"depth":368,"text":290},{"id":306,"depth":368,"text":307},{"id":320,"depth":368,"text":321},{"id":330,"depth":368,"text":331},"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特重返哥伦比亚商学院演讲，与沃尔特·施洛斯对话，重申价值投资原则，强调安全边际与内在价值评估。","md",{},true,40,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":5,"description":389},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang","VRiIZD3PCZ6GsHp0EtWxWfmFC5Pxub1ak7gHIOxl7H0","buffett",[402,407,410,414,417,420,423,426,429,432,436,439,442,446,449,452,456,459,462,466,469,472,476,479,482,486,489,492,496,499,502,506,509,512,516,519,522,526,529,532,536,539,542,546,549,552,556,559,562,566,569,572,576,579,582,587,590,593,597,600,603,607,610,613,617,620,623,627,630,633,637,640,643,647,650,653,657,660,663,667,670,673,677,680,683,687,690,693,697,700,703,707,710,713,717,720,723,727,730,733,737,740,744,747,751,754,758,761,765,768,772,775,778,779,783,786,790,793,797,800,804,807,811,814,818,821,825,828,832,835,839,842,846,849,853,856,860,863,867,870,874,877,881,884,888,891,895,898,902,905,909,912,916,919,923,926,930,933,937,940,944,947,951,954,958,961,965,968,972,975,979,982,986,989,993,996,1000,1003,1007,1010,1014,1017,1021,1024,1028,1031,1035,1038,1042,1045,1049,1052,1056,1059,1063,1066,1070,1073,1077,1080,1084,1087,1091,1094,1098,1101,1105,1108,1112,1115,1119,1122,1126,1129,1133,1136,1140,1143,1147,1150,1154,1157,1161,1164,1168,1171,1175,1178,1182,1185,1189,1192,1196,1199,1203,1207,1211,1215,1219,1223,1227,1231,1235,1239,1243,1247,1251,1255,1259,1263,1267,1271,1275,1279,1283,1287,1291,1295,1299,1303,1307,1311,1315,1319,1323,1327,1331,1335,1339,1343,1347,1351,1355,1359,1363,1367,1371,1375,1379,1383,1387,1391,1395,1399],{"title":403,"slug":404,"category":405,"order":406},"1956 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巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":882,"slug":883,"category":387,"order":880},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":885,"slug":886,"category":585,"order":887},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":889,"slug":890,"category":387,"order":887},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":892,"slug":893,"category":585,"order":894},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":896,"slug":897,"category":387,"order":894},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":899,"slug":900,"category":585,"order":901},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":903,"slug":904,"category":387,"order":901},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":906,"slug":907,"category":585,"order":908},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":910,"slug":911,"category":387,"order":908},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":913,"slug":914,"category":585,"order":915},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":917,"slug":918,"category":387,"order":915},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":920,"slug":921,"category":585,"order":922},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":924,"slug":925,"category":387,"order":922},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":927,"slug":928,"category":585,"order":929},"1991 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