[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2173},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":636,"library-sidebar-dao":1639,"library-sidebar-models":1941},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":622,"date":623,"description":624,"extension":625,"meta":626,"navigation":627,"order":628,"path":629,"seo":630,"seoDescription":624,"seoTitle":631,"slug":632,"stem":633,"__hash__":634,"_collection":635},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang.md","巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":618},"minimark",[9,13,17,23,28,31,34,37,44,50,55,62,68,75,80,86,89,95,102,107,110,116,121,132,138,141,144,149,152,157,162,167,170,177,186,189,192,195,200,203,208,213,218,223,228,233,236,241,248,251,258,263,277,290,297,300,305,312,319,322,329,332,339,342,345,350,357,364,367,372,375,381,384,393,396,401,407,410,413,419,422,427,430,440,445,448,455,462,473,476,479,486,491,497,500,503,506,512,519,524,531,541,546,549,555,558,563,569,576,579,582,587,594,597,602,609],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特1977年谈通货膨胀",[14,15,16],"p",{},"《通货膨胀是如何欺诈投资者的》",[14,18,19],{},[20,21,22],"strong",{},"巴菲特详细介绍 PB-ROE 估值模型的运用逻辑，并解释了通货膨胀对投资回报率的侵蚀",[14,24,25],{},[20,26,27],{},"巴菲特：股市的核心问题是资本回报率并没有随着通货膨胀而上升，它似乎停留在12%。",[14,29,30],{},"在高通货膨胀率的环境中，股票和债券一样表现不佳，这已经不是什么秘密了。在过去十年的大部分年份里，我们就处于这样的市场环境中。对于股票投资而言，这的确是一段艰难岁月。然而，股市为什么会在这个阶段遭遇困境，其原因仍然没有被人们完全理解。",[14,32,33],{},"在通货膨胀时期，证券持有者所遇到的问题一点也不神秘。在美元逐月贬值的情况下，想依靠那些用美元结算收益和偿付本金的证券来获利，显然是非常困难的。你根本不需要读个经济学博士学位就能明白其中的道理。",[14,35,36],{},"然而，长期以来，人们一直假设，股票并不是普通的证券。很多年来，**传统的观念坚持认为，股票是对通货膨胀的对冲。**这种主张基于的理由是，股票并不像债券那样，与美元直接挂钩，它代表着对制造业企业所有权的享有。因此，股票投资者认为，无论政客们如何操纵印钞机，他们仍然能保持其投资的实际价值。",[14,38,39,40,43],{},"那么，为何事实却与此背道而驰呢？我认为最主要的原因是，",[20,41,42],{},"经济实体中的股票和债券非常相似","。",[14,45,46,47],{},"我知道这个观点对于很多投资者而言有些离经叛道。他们肯定会立刻反驳道：**债券的回报率(息票)是固定的，而股权投资的回报率(企业盈利)则可能像过山车一般大起大落。**看起来的确如此。不过，如果你认真研究过第二次世界大战后企业每年的净利润，就会发现很不寻常的情形：其实，",[20,48,49],{},"股本回报率ROE 的起伏并不大。",[14,51,52],{},[20,53,54],{},"息票是固定的",[14,56,57,58,61],{},"二战结束之后的第一个十年，也就是到1955 年之前，道琼斯工业指数的年均股本回报率为12.8%。在接下来的第二个十年，这一数字为10.1%。在之后的第三个十年，这一数字为10.9%。如果把范围拓宽至《财富》500 强企业(其历史只能追溯到1955 年代中期)，其数据也会显示相似的结论：1965 年的前十年为11.2%，1975年的前十年为11.8%。在某些特殊年份，这一数字则大幅提高，比如1974 年，《财富》500 强企业最高达到了14.1%，而在某些年份则比较低，比如1958 年和1970 年，这一项数据只有9.5%。不过纵观这些年，",[20,59,60],{},"总体来说，账面价值的回报率往往会回归到12%左右的水平","。在通货膨胀的年份里(或物价稳定的年份)，没有迹象显示出，该数据会大幅超过这一水平。",[14,63,64,65],{},"说到这儿，让我们思考一下",[20,66,67],{},"这些公司的本质：它们并不是交易所中的那些抽象的代码，而是具有产出能力的企业。我们假设这些企业的所有者是按账面净值的价格获得了企业所有权。因此，他们自己的回报率也应该是在12%左右。而且由于回报一直如此的稳定，将其视为\"股票息票\"似乎是合理的。",[14,69,70,71,74],{},"当然在现实情境中，股票投资者不仅仅是买进和持有。相反，很多人试图研究对策以击败其他投资者，最大限度地提高自己在企业收益中所占有的比例。事实上，这种折腾显然对结果并无助益，不仅没有影响股票息票，还减少了投资者在其中占有的份额。因为在这个过程中难以避免地会产生巨大的摩擦成本，比如咨询费和经纪费等。此外，",[20,72,73],{},"活跃的期权市场，并不会提升美国企业的实际生产效率","，相反，这个赌场需要配置数以千计的人手，这使得摩擦成本进一步增加。",[14,76,77],{},[20,78,79],{},"股票没有到期日",[14,81,82,83,43],{},"在现实世界中，事实上股票投资者通常不会以企业账面价值的价格购买到股票。有时，他们的运气不错，能以低于账面价值的价格买入。但通常的情况是，他们不得按账面价值的溢价购买，而这对于12%的回报率来说又是一大压力。稍后我会探讨这其中的关系。现在，让我们把注意力放在一个要点上：",[20,84,85],{},"通货膨胀率上升了，而股本回报率却没有增加。从本质上来说，那些购买股票的人会像购买债券的人一样，获得具有固定收益的\"有价证券\"",[14,87,88],{},"当然，从形式上看，债券和股票的区别还是很大的。首先，债券终将会到期，尽管这可能需要漫长的等待，但最终债券投资者可以重新谈判合约条款。如果当前和未来预期的通货膨胀率很高，从而使以前的债券票面利息显得过低，那么投资者就会拒绝再次购买。除非提高当前的票面利息，重新燃起他的购买兴趣。近年来，类似的情况一直在发生。",[14,90,91,92],{},"然而，股票是永不还本的，它们没有到期日。无论美国企业获得了什么利润水平，股票投资者都要认命。如果美国企业注定只能赚得12%，那么这就是投资者就不得不接受的水平。作为一个群体，股票投资者既不能选择退出，也无权重新谈判条款。所以综合来看，他们承担的义务增加了。个别企业可能被出售、清算或者回购自己的股票，但总体而言，",[20,93,94],{},"新股发行以及留存利润，可以确保锁定在企业系统里的权益资本不断增加。",[14,96,97,98,101],{},"综上所述，债券要略胜一筹。",[20,99,100],{},"债券息票最后会被重新协定，而股票\"息票\"不会","。当然，12%的回报率在很长的一段时期内似乎不需要大的修正，这也是事实。",[14,103,104],{},[20,105,106],{},"债券持有人得到的是现金",[14,108,109],{},"拥有独特的12%的息票率，身着\"股票\"的华美外衣，\"股票债券\"(equity bond)翩然而至华尔街的化妆舞会。",[14,111,112,113,43],{},"股票与普通债券还有另一个显著的差别。在一般情况下，债券投资者在兑现息票获得现金之后，会再次择优进行投资；而股票投资者的股票\"息票\"，会部分保留在企业手里。企业会根据自身的盈利情况进行再投资。换句话说，",[20,114,115],{},"每年12%的利润中的一部分将被当作股息支付给投资者，而剩下的部分又滚入下一个12%的生产过程中",[14,117,118],{},[20,119,120],{},"美好的旧时光",[14,122,123,124,127,128,131],{},"股票的这一特性，即部分收益留存用于再投资，既可算优点又可算缺点，这取决于12%的回报率到底有多诱人。在1950-1960 年代早期，这的确是个好消息。当债券的回报率只有3-4%时，能够有权自动把股票收益的一部分，以12%的回报率进行再投资，这具有极大的价值。不过，需要提醒的是，投资者不可能在投入自有资金后就自动获得12%的回报，因为在那个时期，",[20,125,126],{},"股票价格已大大地超过了它对应的账面价值","，所以，不论股票的回报率是多少，溢价使得投资者不可能完整地获得这个回报率。这就好比息票率为12%的债券，",[20,129,130],{},"如果你以远远超过票面价值的价格购买","，那么就无法获得12%的回报。",[14,133,134,135],{},"不过，股票投资者仍然可以享有留存收益所带来的12%的回报。事实上，留存收益意味着投资者可以按账面价值购买这家企业的一部分，而在当时的经济环境下，购买企业所要支付的价格会远高于企业的账面价值。在这种情况下，人们自然对现金股息敬而远之，而对留存利润趋之若鹜。",[20,136,137],{},"实际上，想以12%的回报率进行再投资的资金越多，这种特性就会愈加珍贵，而投资者愿为此付出的价格也就越高。",[14,139,140],{},"1960 年代早期，投资者就曾心甘情愿地为经济高速增长地区的电力公司股票支付高溢价。因为他们知道这些成长型公司有能力将大部分利润再投资以赚取更多回报。与此形成鲜明对照的是，那些受经营环境所迫，只能大量派发现金股息的公用事业企业的股票价格则相对较低。",[14,142,143],{},"如果在那一时期，存在一种高等级、不可赎回、息票率为12%的长期债券，它肯定会以远远高于其票面价值的价格出售。此外，假设这种债券还有另外一个不同寻常的特性，如该债券的大部分利息可以自动再投资于类似的债券，那这些债券必将享受更高的发行溢价。**从本质上来说，成长股正是此类证券的代表，它们通常会保留大部分利润进行再投资。**当新增的权益资本再投资的回报率是12%，而普通债券的票息率只有4%左右时，股票投资者必定是非常满意的。当然，他们也为此付出了过高的价格。",[14,145,146],{},[20,147,148],{},"准备撤退",[14,150,151],{},"仔细回顾一下就会发现，1946-1966 年期间，股票投资者实际上获得了三重好礼。",[14,153,154],{},[20,155,156],{},"第一，得益于企业的股本回报率远远高于当时的基准利率；",[14,158,159],{},[20,160,161],{},"第二，企业的大部分利润都被保留，并以很高的回报率进行再投资，而其他途径难以获得这么高的回报率；",[14,163,164],{},[20,165,166],{},"第三，随着前两个优势得到了广泛认可，人们对公司股权资本的估值不断提高。这意味着，除了股权资本最基本的12%回报率以外，投资者还获得了额外的估值溢价奖励。",[14,168,169],{},"道琼斯工业股票的平均价格从1946 年账面价值的133%上涨到1966 年的220%(市净率1.33 提高到2.2)，在这个估值抬升的过程中，投资者确实在短期内获得了超过所投资企业内在盈利能力的回报率。",[14,171,172,173,176],{},"到了1960 年代中期，众多大型投资机构终于\"发现\"了这一法宝。然而，就在这些金融巨头开始争相买入股票时，高通货膨胀率、高利率时代到来了。很自然地，股票价格上涨的趋势开始逆转。",[20,174,175],{},"利率的上涨无情地降低了所有固定收益类投资品种的价值","。随着长期公司债券利率开始上升(最终升至10%左右)，12%的股本回报率和再投资特性也开始被人们遗弃了。",[14,178,179,182,183,43],{},[20,180,181],{},"投资者理所当然的认为，股票的风险比债券大","。虽然长期来看\"股票息票\"大致是固定，但它每年的确有所波动。",[20,184,185],{},"这种年度波动大大影响了投资者对未来的态度，尽管这种影响经常具有误导性",[14,187,188],{},"投资者认为股票风险大的另一个原因是到期日遥遥无期。即使是你最友好的经纪人，也不敢将一种100 年期的债券(如果他有的话)，称之为\"安全债券\"向你推销。由于这层额外风险，投资者自然期望股票回报率\"稳稳地\"高于债券回报率。如果股本回报率为12%，而同一类型企业的债券回报率为10%，那么这就不能算\"稳稳地\"。随着回报率之间差距的缩小，股票投资者就开始另寻出路了。",[14,190,191],{},"当然，无论如何，股票投资者作为一个整体是不可能彻底退出的。他们所得到的只是更多的换手、大量的交易费用、以及被不断创出新低的估值。这反映出，在高通货膨胀的环境下，12%的股票息票的吸引力在降低。",[14,193,194],{},"过去的十年里，在经历了接二连三的打击之后，债券投资者认识到，再高的利息都不保险，无论是6%、8%还是10%，都无法阻止债券价格的崩溃。由于股票投资者还没有完全意识到自己持有的也是一种\"债券\"，所以他们还得继续接受市场的教育。",[14,196,197],{},[20,198,199],{},"提高盈利的五种方法",[14,201,202],{},"12%的股票息票注定是一成不变的吗？是否存在着某条法律，禁止企业提高其股本回报率，以应对似乎永远在不断攀升的通货膨胀率呢？事实上，并不存在这样的法律。美国企业并不能随心所欲或通过制定法律来提高企业盈利。要提高股本回报率ROE，企业至少需要做到以下其中一点：",[14,204,205],{},[20,206,207],{},"ROE = 净利润率 × 总资产周转率 × 权益倍数",[14,209,210],{},[20,211,212],{},"① 提高总资产周转率，即销售收入与总资产的比率",[14,214,215],{},[20,216,217],{},"② 更便宜的杠杆(降低融资利率)",[14,219,220],{},[20,221,222],{},"③ 更高的杠杆水平(提高资产负债率)",[14,224,225],{},[20,226,227],{},"④ 降低企业所得税",[14,229,230],{},[20,231,232],{},"⑤ 更高的营业利润率",[14,234,235],{},"除此之外，没有其他途径能提高普通股的回报率了。因此我们来谈谈自己对此可以做点儿什么。",[14,237,238],{},[20,239,240],{},"先从总资产周转率开始。",[14,242,243,244,247],{},"关于这个问题，我们必须考虑三类主要的资产：",[20,245,246],{},"应收账款、存货和固定资产","，比如厂房和机器设备等。",[14,249,250],{},"不管是由销量增加引起的还是由通货膨胀引起的，只要**以美元计的销售收入增加，应收账款也会成比例增加。**这里没有改善应收账款周转率的空间。",[14,252,253,254,257],{},"至于存货，情况就没这么简单了。从长期来看，一般认为，单位存货的变动趋势会与单位成品的销售趋势吻合。不过，在短期内，存货实物的周转率会因特殊因素而变化无常，比如，成本预期趋势或生产瓶颈问题等。在通货膨胀时期，",[20,255,256],{},"采用\"后进先出法\"(LIFO)的会计方法来计算存货的价值","，将有助于提高报表上的存货周转率。当通货膨胀引起销售收入增加时，对于采用\"后进先出法\"的企业而言，如果销售单价没有上涨，存货的总价值将维持不变；而如果单位售价提高了，存货的总价值将随着销售收入的增加而增加。无论哪种情况，以美元记名义存货周转率都将增加。1970 年代的早期，\"后进先出法\"为各企业所青睐，并逐渐成为一种显著的趋势，因为这样做会降低企业报表上的利润和税收。目前这种趋势有减缓的迹象，但仍有不少已经采用这个原则或有意实施这个原则的企业不愿放弃，以期进一步增加报表上的存货周转率。",[14,259,260],{},[20,261,262],{},"助益有限",[14,264,265,266,269,270,273,274,43],{},"在固定资产方面，假设通货膨胀对所有产品的影响都一样，那么，",[20,267,268],{},"通货膨胀率的任何增长，将首先提高固定资产周转率","。这是因为，销售收入会立即反映新的价格水平，而",[20,271,272],{},"固定资产只能逐步地反映变化","。比如，只有在现有设备被淘汰之后，才能以新价格购买新设备来取代它。因此，很明显，公司的设备更新过程越缓慢，固定资产周转率上涨得越多。只有当更新周期完成后，这个过程才会停止。假设通货膨胀率不变，",[20,275,276],{},"销售收入和固定资产会以通货膨胀率的节奏增长",[14,278,279,282,283,286,287,43],{},[20,280,281],{},"总的来说，通货膨胀将会提升企业的总资产周转率","。由于\"后进先出法\"的会计方法，带来一些提升是肯定的。如果通货膨胀加速，由于销售收入的上升快于固定资产的上升，这也可能会对周转率起到促进作用。不",[20,284,285],{},"过，通货膨胀所带来的总资产周转率上升是有限的，其程度不足以使股本回报率大幅上升","。在截止1975 年的十年期间，尽管总体上通货膨胀在加速，\"后进先出法\"亦被广泛采用，但",[20,288,289],{},"500 强企业的总资产周转率仅仅从1.18 上升到1.29",[14,291,292,293,296],{},"使用便宜的杠杆呢？不太可能。高通货膨胀率通常会导致借贷成本大幅上升，而不是下降。恶性的通货膨胀率会导致资本需求激增，随着贷款人对长期合同的不信任感日渐加深，他们开始索要得更多。即使利率不再进一步上升，杠杆也会变得更贵，",[20,294,295],{},"因为公司账面上的平均债务成本低于替换成本","。现有债务到期后，就需要用成本更高的新债务来替代。整体而言，杠杆成本在未来的变化会对股本回报率产生轻微的抑制作用。",[14,298,299],{},"使用更高的杠杆水平呢？美国企业早已发行了太多(如果不是大多数的话)所能使用的债务\"杠杆\"。证明这一论点的证据，可在500 强企业的另外一组统计数据中找到：在1956~1975 年的20 年里，500 强企业的股东权益占总资产的比例从63%降到了50%以下。换句话说，每一美元股权资本的杠杆水平都比过去高得多。",[14,301,302],{},[20,303,304],{},"贷款人学到了什么",[14,306,307,308,311],{},"通货膨胀引发的融资需求颇具讽刺意味。高盈利企业通常是那些信用等级最好的企业，它们对债务的需求也相对较少，而盈利较差的企业似乎永远欲壑难填。贷款人对这个问题的理解要比十年前深刻多了，所以，他们",[20,309,310],{},"不愿意贷款给资金匮乏、盈利不佳的企业","，让它们将杠杆抬高到天上去。",[14,313,314,315,318],{},"尽管如此，鉴于通货膨胀日益严重，许多企业似乎已下决心在未来通过提高杠杆率来提高股本回报率。企业管理层之所以做出此决策，是因为他们",[20,316,317],{},"需要比往日更多的资金量，才能维持企业的业务规模不下滑","。在不能减少股息以及无法增发新股的情况下(因为通货膨胀的关系，股票的吸引力大大减小)，要想得到额外的资金，一个自然而然的选择便是，几乎不计成本的增加债务。它们的行为往往会像在1960 年代中期那些公用事业企业一样，为超出的0.125%利息争论不休；而到了1974 年，为了能得到利息为12%的借款而感激涕零。",[14,320,321],{},"然而，与1960 年代初以4%利率的增加债务相比，以当前的利率新增债务对股本回报率的贡献要小于得多。还有一个问题就是，负债率上升还会导致信用评级被下调，引发融资成本进一步上升。",[14,323,324,325,328],{},"这一点再加上前面讨论的几点可以说明，",[20,326,327],{},"未来的杠杆成本必将上升","。总的来看，杠杆成本的上升很可能抵消提高杠杆率所带来的好处。",[14,330,331],{},"此外，与传统的资产负债表相比，美国企业如今早已债台高筑。许多企业还承担着庞大的养老金债务，当现任员工退休时，企业必须根据当时的实际物价水平调整退休工资的数额。在通货膨胀率很低的1955~1965 年，这种养老金计划所产生的债务还能得以合理预测。而今天，已经没有人能够真正搞清楚企业的最终债务是多少。如果未来通货膨胀率平均为7%，一名年薪为1.2 万美元的25 岁的员工，仅仅为了满足生活成本的增长而提高薪资，当他65 岁退休时，他将从企业获得18 万美元的年薪。",[14,333,334,335,338],{},"当然，每年许多企业的年报上都有一项关于未履行的养老金债务的精确数字。如果这个数字是真实可信的，那么企业可以预先支付等同于这个数字的一笔资金，再加上现有的养老金资产，然后将这笔钱移交给某一家保险公司，",[20,336,337],{},"让这家保险公司承担该公司的所有的养老金债务","。不幸的是，在真实的世界里，恐怕根本找不到愿意听一听这笔交易的保险公司。",[14,340,341],{},"事实上，任何一家美国企业的财务主管都不愿意发行这种\"生活成本\"债券，这是一种不可赎回的债券，其息票与物价指数挂钩。然而，通过私人养老金体系，美国企业实际上背负了大量相当于\"生活成本\"债券的巨额债务。",[14,343,344],{},"对于更高的杠杆水平，不管是表内的传统债务，还是表外的与物价指数挂钩的\"养老金债务\"，股东都应该持怀疑态度。企业在不负债的情况下获得12%的股本回报率，要远远好于债台高筑的企业获得同样的股本回报率。这也就意味着，如今企业12%的股本回报率的价值要远低于20 年前12%股本回报率的价值。",[14,346,347],{},[20,348,349],{},"更有趣的一面在于政府",[14,351,352,353,356],{},"降低企业所得税似乎也不太可能。投资者所持有的美国企业股票只能算作D 类。",[20,354,355],{},"A、B 和C 三类股票分别由联邦、州和市政府所持有，分别代表着它们征收所得税的权利","。没错，这些\"投资人\"对企业的资产并不拥有所有权，但他们可以在企业利润中分享一大份，对于那些由D 类股东的留存收益所创造出来的利润也不例外。",[14,358,359,360,363],{},"美妙的A、B、C 三类股票的另一个诱人之处是，",[20,361,362],{},"只要它们中任何一个\"股东\"进行单边投票，无须付款，就能立刻地、大幅地提高对企业利润的分成","。例如，对A 类\"股东\"而言，只要美国国会采取行动即可。更有趣的是，任何一个\"股东\"都可以追溯式提高自己享有的企业利润的份额，比如1975 年纽约的企业就沮丧的经历了这种\"出其不意\"的追溯。每当A、B、C 三类\"股东\"投票提高它们所占的份额时，剩下留给D 类股东的部分，也就是普通股票投资者的部分，肯定就会减少。",[14,365,366],{},"在展望未来时，如果还认为那些控制着A、B、C 三类股票的人会投票减少自己的份额，那似乎就太不明智了。D 类股东可能不得不致力于保留住自己的那一部分。",[14,368,369],{},[20,370,371],{},"来自联邦贸易委员会FTC 的坏消息",[14,373,374],{},"在我们提高股本回报率的5 种方法中，最后一种是提高营业利润率。一些乐观主义者对此寄予了很大希望。",[14,376,377,378,43],{},"没有证据表明他们是错误的。不过，每1 美元的销售收入只有100 美分，而在我们得到税前利润之前，这100 美分中还要扣除多项支出：人力成本、原材料、能源、以及各种各样的税负。这些成本的比重在通货膨胀时都不太可能会降低。非但如此，近期的统计数据表明，",[20,379,380],{},"在通货膨胀时营业利润率很难被大幅提高",[14,382,383],{},"1956~1965 年，这是一段通货膨胀率相对较低的时期，美国联邦贸易委员会的季度报告显示，这一时期制造业企业的平均营业利润率为8.6%。1966~1975 年，制造业企业的平均营业利润率为8%。换句话说，尽管通货膨胀率有了相当大的增加，营业利润率还是下降了。",[14,385,386,389,390],{},[20,387,388],{},"如果企业能够根据重置成本定价，那么在通货膨胀时期利润就会增加。然而，一个简单的事实是，尽管大多数大型企业的市场影响力很大，却依然无法转嫁成本","。重置成本的会计方法显示，企业利润在过去十年中大幅度下降。如果石油、钢铁、铝业等行业的企业寡头确实拥有垄断市场的实力却无法提价，能够得出的结论就只有一个：",[20,391,392],{},"它们的定价权受到了明显的限制。",[14,394,395],{},"这5 种可以提高股本回报率的方法，我们已经全部罗列出来了，但根据我的分析，没有哪一种方法能在高通货膨胀的环境下真正帮到我们。或许你可能会得出比我更乐观的结论。不过，请记住，12%左右的股本回报率已经伴随我们很长时间了。",[14,397,398],{},[20,399,400],{},"投资者的PB-ROE 模型",[14,402,403,404],{},"即便同意12%的股权息票或多或少是不可改变的，你肯定仍希望在未来能取得比这好的业绩。这是可以想象的。毕竟有很多投资者的长期业绩一直超过了12%。不过，",[20,405,406],{},"你的未来业绩会受到三个变量的制约：它们是账面价值与市值之间的关系、税率和通货膨胀率。",[14,408,409],{},"首先，我们花点时间来做些账面价值和市值的计算。如果股票一直按企业账面价值的价格出售(PB=1)，事情就变得非常简单。如果一只股票的账面价值是100 美元，其平均市值也是100 美元，企业12%的利润就会转化为投资者12%的回报，当然要减去交易费用，不过我们暂时不去考虑它。如果派息率是50%，我们的投资者将会得到6 美元的现金股息，并从账面价值的增加中获得6 美元。当然，增加的6 美元账面价值自然会在股票的市值中得到体现。",[14,411,412],{},"如果股票是按账面价值150%的价格出售(PB=1.5)，情况就会有所改变。虽然投资者将收到相同的6 美元现金分红，但是相对于150 美元的购买成本，回报率只有4%。企业的账面价值仍将增长6%，达到106 美元。如果还是按账面价值的150%来定价，投资者所持有的股票市值也同样会增长6%，达到159 美元。不过，投资者的总回报率，包括市值增长和现金分红，将只有10%，而企业业务赚取的回报率是12%。",[14,414,415,416],{},"如果投资者按低于账面价值的价格购买，情况则恰好相反。比如，如果股票价格按账面价值80%的价格出售(PB=0.8)，在相同的利润和分配条件下，股息率将达到7.5%，即6 美元现金股息除以80 美元股价。加上市值增长的6%，总回报率为13.5%。因此，",[20,417,418],{},"要想业绩更漂亮，要以折扣价而非溢价买进，这是常识。",[14,420,421],{},"二战之后的那些年里，道琼斯工业指数的市值，曾低至账面价值的84%(1974 年PB=0.84)，而最高则达到232%(1965 年PB=2.32)。在大多数时间里，这个比值都远超100%。1977 年初约为110%(PB=1.1)。如果我们假设未来股票的市值与账面价值的比例接近100%，就意味着股票投资者可以获得全部12%的收益。至少，在扣除税收和通货膨胀之前，这个数字是可以保证的。",[14,423,424],{},[20,425,426],{},"税后只剩7%",[14,428,429],{},"在这12%的收益中，税收会拿走多少呢？对于个人投资者而言，可以合理的假设，联邦、州和地方所得税，平均将会吞噬掉股息的50%和资本利得的30%。多数投资者的边际税率可能会低于此税率，但那些大投资者将会承受比这高得多的税率。根据新税法，在重税城市的高收入投资者，其资本利得边际税率高达56%。",[14,431,432,433,436,437,43],{},"那么，我们就用50%的股息税和30%的资本利得税作为代表。根据近期的经验，我们假设，在公司12%的股本回报中，以现金股息的形式派发5%(税后降为2.5%)，留存的7%使市值得到相应增长(30%的资本利得税后降为4.9%)。因此，",[20,434,435],{},"税后回报率将为7.4%","。如果考虑到摩擦成本，回报率可能会下降到7%。如果将我们的股票作为伪装债券的理论再推一步，那么对个人而言，",[20,438,439],{},"股票可能被看作相当于7%票息的免税永久债券",[14,441,442],{},[20,443,444],{},"无人知晓的通胀数字",[14,446,447],{},"这就让我们回到关键性的问题：通货膨胀率。没有人知道这个问题的答案，包括那些政治家、经济学家以及权威学者。就在几年前，这些人还觉得，只要这里或那里稍作调节，失业率和通货膨胀率就会像训练有素的海豹一样听话。",[14,449,450,451,454],{},"然而，许多迹象显示，让物价达到稳定状态将面临着重重困难：目前的通货膨胀是全球性的；社会中大部分群体的倾向是，利用他们的选票转嫁经济方面的问题，而不是想办法解决；在重要问题上，政客们总是充耳不闻，即使是最重要的问题，比如能源、核扩散，他们也不尽心尽力地去解决；",[20,452,453],{},"我们的政治制度鼓励那些为了赢得竞选胜利而追求短期利益的行为","，尽管这最终会招致长期的痛苦。",[14,456,457,458,461],{},"不难想象，",[20,459,460],{},"多数政客都强烈反对通货膨胀，但他们都坚定支持制造通货膨胀的政策","。这种精神分裂并没有导致他们与现实隔离，因为政客们早已确保他们的养老金会与退休后的生活成本挂钩，而这完全不同于私营部门的养老金。",[14,463,464,465,468,469,472],{},"对于未来通货膨胀率的讨论，人们通常会着眼于",[20,466,467],{},"货币政策和财政政策","的细微之处。这两者都是决定通货膨胀率高低的重要变量。不过，从根本上说，",[20,470,471],{},"和平时期的通货膨胀是政治问题而不是经济问题","。所以，人的行为而非货币行为才是问题的关键。一个政客是选择下一次的连任，还是选择下一代的福利，其结果是不言自明的。",[14,474,475],{},"尽管这种泛泛而论并不能得出精确的数字，但我认为，在未来几年里，通货膨胀率非常有可能维持在7%左",[14,477,478],{},"右。我希望这个预测是错误的，事实上也很有可能如此。对未来的预测通常更多地反映的是有关预测者的信息，而不是关于未来的。你完全可以将自己认定的通货膨胀数字，纳入到投资者的算术式中。但是，如果你预测的通货膨胀率是2～3%，那咱们俩的视角肯定不同。我的结论是**：在扣除通货膨胀和税收之前，会获得12%的股本回报率；扣除税收但不扣除通货膨胀，股票的回报率还有7%；扣除税收和通货膨胀率之后，股票的回报率可能为零**。这个公式可一点也不像电视上宣称的那样让人激情澎湃。",[14,480,481,482,485],{},"作为一名普通的投资者，",[20,483,484],{},"你能得到更多的钱，但购买力却没得到提升","。这与本杰明·富兰克林的\"省一分就是赚一分\"的说法大相径庭，但与米尔顿·弗里德曼的\"投资还不如消费\"的说法非常一致。(Milton Friedmann，美国著名经济学家，芝加哥大学教授、芝加哥经济学派领军人物、货币学派的代表人物，1976 年诺贝尔经济学奖得主)",[14,487,488],{},[20,489,490],{},"寡妇们忽略了什么？(靠吃息度日的人)",[14,492,493,494,43],{},"这种计算清楚地表明，",[20,495,496],{},"通货膨胀税是一种更具破坏力的税收，远超于我们立法机构制定的任何税种",[14,498,499],{},"\"通货膨胀税\"具有奇异的吞噬资本的能力。对于一个拥有利息为5%的银行存款的寡妇来说，零通货膨胀时缴纳100%的所得税，5%通货膨胀率时不缴纳所得税，这二者之间没有区别。无论如何，这两种\"征税\"的方式，都使她没有了任何实际收入。她所花出去的每一分钱都来自本金。然而，她无疑会觉得120%的所得税太离谱了，却不会注意到，6%的通货膨胀率在经济上等价于120%的所得税。",[14,501,502],{},"如果我对通货膨胀率的假设接近正确，那么令人失望的结果，将不是因为市场下跌，而是尽管事实上市场在上涨。上月初，道琼斯工业平均指数是920 点，比十年前上涨了55 点。然而，经过通货膨胀调整之后，道琼斯工业平均指数实际下跌了大约345 点，即从865 点跌到520 点。而且，道琼斯工业平均指数成份股企业，不得不将大约一半利润留存起来用于再投资，才能实现这一目标。",[14,504,505],{},"在接下来的十年里，只要保持12%的股本息票，40%的派息率和110%的市净率不变，道琼斯工业平均指数将翻一倍(年化7%)。如果通货膨胀率是7%，即使投资者是在道琼斯工业平均指数到达1800 点时卖出股票，在支付了资本利得税之后，其实际购买力还不如今天的水平。",[14,507,508,509,43],{},"对于我的悲观预测，我几乎已经听见投资者的批评声了。人们会认为，无论新投资时代面临着何种困难，他们都会想方设法为自己谋划一个超级回报。然而，他们成功可能性极低。而从股票投资者这个整体来看，这更加不可能。",[20,510,511],{},"如果你觉得你可以通过买卖股票来击败通货膨胀税，我很乐意做你的经纪人，而不是合伙人",[14,513,514,515,518],{},"即使那些所谓的免税投资者，比如说养老基金和大学捐赠基金，也无法回避通货膨胀税。",[20,516,517],{},"如果我假设的7%的通货膨胀率是正确的，那么财务主管把每年7%的回报率仅仅只能看作是弥补购买力的损失","。除非这些基金的回报率超过通货膨胀率，否则他们将一无所获。在通货膨胀率为7%的水平下，如果总体回报率为8%，那么，那些自以为免税的机构，实际上是被征收了87.5%(7\u002F8)的\"所得税\"。",[14,520,521],{},[20,522,523],{},"宏观经济方程式",[14,525,526,527,530],{},"不幸的是，高通货膨胀率造成的问题不仅困扰着投资者，而且影响了整个社会。投资收入只占国民收入的一小部分。如果人均实际收入能以健康的速度增长，只是实际投资回报为零，那么，整个社会的公平也许会进一步地发展。市",[20,528,529],{},"场经济往往会给参与者不成比例的回报(贫富分化)","。凭借嗓音、身体构造、体力或智力等天赋，人们拥有了大量从未来的国民产出中得到巨额的财富的凭证，这些凭证和股票、债券以及其他形式的资本没有什么不同。投对了胎也能在一出生就拥有一生都享用不尽的财富。如果通货膨胀造成的投资零回报能劫富济贫，从这些有着巨额财富的幸运儿手中，把更多的国民产出转移给那些勤奋工作创造价值，只是没那么幸运的公民，这似乎不太可能对一个公平的世界造成如此大的伤害，以致于冒着上帝干预的风险。",[14,532,533,534,537,538,43],{},"然而，",[20,535,536],{},"以牺牲富裕股东的利益为代价来改善工人福利，这种做法的效果却并不明显","。员工薪酬已经是股息总额的28 倍，而且现在很多股息都流向养老金大学等非盈利机构，以及并不富裕的个人投资者。在这种情况下，",[20,539,540],{},"我们把富裕股东的全部股息都转化为工资所带来的工资提高，其实远比不过经济增长对提高实际工资所做的贡献；而且这种转移我们只能做一次，因为这无异于杀掉一头奶牛或者一头猪",[14,542,543],{},[20,544,545],{},"连苏联人都懂的道理",[14,547,548],{},"因此，对穷人来说，通过通货膨胀来减少贫富差距，甚至连短期的实际帮助都没有。穷人的经济状况会随通货膨胀对经济的总体影响而上升或下降，而通货膨胀对经济的影响不可能是好的。",[14,550,551,554],{},[20,552,553],{},"要大幅改善普通人的经济状况，就需要投资于现代化的生产设施的实际资本获得巨大的收益","。如果整个产业界无法不断创造和投入昂贵的新的资本和设备，即使拥有优质的人力资源、巨大的消费需求和政府的许诺，也将一无所获(凯恩斯通论)。无论是苏联人还是洛克菲勒都理解这个公式。这一公式在日本和西德的应用，取得了惊人的成功。高资本积累率使得这些国家提高生活水平的速度远远超过美国，尽管我们在能源方面享有更大的优势。",[14,556,557],{},"为了理解通货膨胀对资本积累(capital-accumulation)的真实影响，需要一点数学计算。让我们回到12%的股本回报率。该收益率是扣除了折旧之后列报的，也就是说这是扣除了厂房和设备损耗的收益率。如果未来能够按原始成本相近的价格更新厂房和设备，那么大概可以保持现有的生产能力(保持12%的回报率)。",[14,559,560],{},[20,561,562],{},"真实的情况又是什么样子的?",[14,564,565,566,43],{},"让我们假设50%的收益用来发放股息，剩下6%的股本回报用于为未来的成长(Growth)提供资本金。假如通货膨胀率很低，比如2%左右，那么成长的很大一部分将源自实物产出量的增长(销量的增长而非价格的提高)。在这2%通货膨胀条件下，必须额外再投资其中的2%在应收账款、存货和固定资产上，明年的实物产出量才能保持今年的水平。剩下的4%将会投资于购置新的厂房设备，用于生产更多实物商品。",[20,567,568],{},"显然，2%为反映通货膨胀带来的虚幻的名义美元收入增长提供资金，而其余的4%为实物产出的增长提供资金。如果人口增长1%，那么实际产出4%增长会转化为3%的实际人均净收入增长。这看似非常粗略的估算，却一直是我们经济增长的方式",[14,570,571,572,575],{},"现在，让我们将通货膨胀率从2%调整为7%，来计算一下在经过强制性通货膨胀融资后，还能剩下多少来支持实际产出的增长。如果分红政策和杠杆率保持不变，答案是什么都剩不下。12%收益率的一半用于发放股息，剩下的6%全部被投入到营运资本，即使这样也很难保持今年的实物产出与去年持平。许",[20,573,574],{},"多企业在正常的派息之后，已没有真正的留存收益可以为实体扩张提供资金(留存收益被营运资本全部占用)","。面对这种窘境，他们各出奇招。他们暗自发问，怎样才能在不触怒股东的情况下减少甚至停止支付股息？我给他们带来了一些好消息：一套现成的方案准备好了。",[14,577,578],{},"近年来，美国的公用电力企业几乎已经丧失了股息支付能力。更确切的说，如果投资者同意购买其增发的股票，它们才能支付股息。1975 年，电力企业支付了33 亿美元的普通股股息，却要求投资者返还34 亿美元。当然，电力企业这种拆东墙补西墙的做法并不是为了什么声誉。也许你还记得，1974 年，ConED 爱迪生联合电气公司直截了当地告诉股东，公司再也没有钱可用于支付股息了，而市场用暴跌\"回馈\"了这种坦诚。现在，更精明的公用事业类企业维持甚至还增加季度股息，但要求新老股东返还这些钱。换句话说，企业会增发新股收回资金。",[14,580,581],{},"在这一过程中，大量资本被转给了税务部门和股票承销商。然而，每个人似乎都兴致勃勃，特别是承销商。",[14,583,584],{},[20,585,586],{},"AT&T 美国电话电报公司的笑话",[14,588,589,590,593],{},"受到这些成功案例的鼓舞，一些公用事业企业想出了更便捷的方法：企业宣布支付股息，股东缴纳税款，然后再快速发行更多的新股。虽然没有现金转手，但美国国税局一如既往地\"剥削\"股东，坚持认为交易已经完成。比如，在1973 年 AT&T 公司推出了一项",[20,591,592],{},"股息再投资计划","。据说这家公司是非常关心股东利益的，考虑到金融界的风气，这种计划的实施是完全可以理解的，但这个计划的本质无异于《爱丽丝梦游仙境》。1976 年，AT&T 公司向其290 万名普通股股东发放了23 亿美元的股息。该年年底，共有64.8 万名股东(前一年是60.1 万股东)在该公司增发的股票上再投资了4.32 亿美元(前一年为3.27 亿美元)。",[14,595,596],{},"恶搞一下，假设所有AT&T 公司的股东都参与了这项计划，那么，股东将收不到一分钱的现金，这与爱迪生联合电气公司决定不发放股息如出一辙。非但如此，290 万股东还被要求为他们的留存利润支付所得税，因为那一年留存利润被改名为\"股息\"。假设1976 年的\"股息\"总额为23 亿美元，股东按平均为30%的所得税税率缴税，那么，为了这份非凡的计划，他们最终将向美国国税局支付了近7.3 亿美元。此情此景，想象一下，如果董事会决定将股息加倍，股东们会有多高兴？",[14,598,599],{},[20,600,601],{},"政府将会积极干预",[14,603,604,605,608],{},"随着企业在真实资本积累的问题上的奋力挣扎，我们必将看到各种变着花样降低股息的做法。显然，从不同程度上克扣股东权益并不能完全解决问题。",[20,606,607],{},"7%的通货膨胀率和12%的股本回报率叠加在一起，将会减少可用于支持实际增长的企业资本流","。因此，当传统的私人资本积累方式在通货膨胀条件下失效时，我们的政府就会更多地介入：以刺激资本流向工业部门。这样做可能像英国一样失败，也可能像日本一样成功。日本式的积极干预，需要政府、企业、劳工之间的热情结合，美国显然非常稀缺这种文化和历史基础。幸运的话，我们会避免重蹈英国的覆辙。在英国，所有部门都在为蛋糕分配而争斗，而不是合力把蛋糕做大。然而，总的来讲，在未来一段时间里，我们很有可能会听到更多有关投资不足、滞胀和私营部门无法满足市场需求的消息。",[610,611,612,615],"blockquote",{},[14,613,614],{},"70 年代以前，凯恩斯主义为基础的需求管理，强调运用财政政策手段(两个指标是政府支出和公共支出)刺激投资和消费等有效需求，甚至可以经常性地实行赤字财政政策。70 年代开始，以货币主义为基础的货币供应调节，强调运用货币政策手段严格控制货币供应，遏制通货膨胀，最终达到增加就业和刺激经济增长的目的。",[14,616,617],{},"巴菲特不仅懂投资，还懂经济。这篇文章还可以看出巴菲特对凯恩斯《就业、利息和货币通论》的理解，不但指出了市场的问题，还开出了药方。",{"title":619,"searchDepth":620,"depth":620,"links":621},"",2,[],"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特在《财富》撰文分析通货膨胀如何欺诈投资者，阐述PB-ROE估值模型与通胀对投资回报率的侵蚀效应。","md",{},true,9,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":5,"description":624},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang","R2bHchUw2bGE1_hVkFIUfMqTB-5nGYhSvhbI78HDdWQ","buffett",[637,642,645,649,652,655,658,662,665,668,672,675,678,682,685,688,692,695,698,702,705,708,712,715,718,721,722,725,729,732,735,739,742,745,749,752,755,759,762,765,769,772,775,779,782,785,789,792,795,799,802,805,809,812,815,820,823,826,830,833,836,840,843,846,850,853,856,860,863,866,870,873,876,880,883,886,890,893,896,900,903,906,910,913,916,920,923,926,930,933,936,940,943,946,950,953,956,960,963,966,970,973,977,980,984,987,991,994,998,1001,1005,1008,1012,1015,1019,1022,1026,1029,1033,1036,1040,1043,1047,1050,1054,1057,1061,1064,1068,1071,1075,1078,1082,1085,1089,1092,1096,1099,1103,1106,1110,1113,1117,1120,1124,1127,1131,1134,1138,1141,1145,1148,1152,1155,1159,1162,1166,1169,1173,1176,1180,1183,1187,1190,1194,1197,1201,1204,1208,1211,1215,1218,1222,1225,1229,1232,1236,1239,1243,1246,1250,1253,1257,1260,1264,1267,1271,1274,1278,1281,1285,1288,1292,1295,1299,1302,1306,1309,1313,1316,1320,1323,1327,1330,1334,1337,1341,1344,1348,1351,1355,1358,1362,1365,1369,1372,1376,1379,1383,1386,1390,1393,1397,1400,1404,1407,1411,1414,1418,1421,1425,1428,1432,1435,1439,1443,1447,1451,1455,1459,1463,1467,1471,1475,1479,1483,1487,1491,1495,1499,1503,1507,1511,1515,1519,1523,1527,1531,1535,1539,1543,1547,1551,1555,1559,1563,1567,1571,1575,1579,1583,1587,1591,1595,1599,1603,1607,1611,1615,1619,1623,1627,1631,1635],{"title":638,"slug":639,"category":640,"order":641},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":643,"slug":644,"category":622,"order":641},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian",{"title":646,"slug":647,"category":648,"order":641},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":650,"slug":651,"category":640,"order":620},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":653,"slug":654,"category":622,"order":620},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":656,"slug":657,"category":648,"order":620},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":659,"slug":660,"category":640,"order":661},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":663,"slug":664,"category":622,"order":661},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":666,"slug":667,"category":648,"order":661},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":669,"slug":670,"category":640,"order":671},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":673,"slug":674,"category":622,"order":671},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":676,"slug":677,"category":648,"order":671},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":679,"slug":680,"category":640,"order":681},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":683,"slug":684,"category":622,"order":681},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":686,"slug":687,"category":648,"order":681},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":689,"slug":690,"category":640,"order":691},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":693,"slug":694,"category":622,"order":691},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":696,"slug":697,"category":648,"order":691},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":699,"slug":700,"category":640,"order":701},"1961年中 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巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1041,"slug":1042,"category":622,"order":1039},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1044,"slug":1045,"category":818,"order":1046},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1048,"slug":1049,"category":622,"order":1046},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1051,"slug":1052,"category":818,"order":1053},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1055,"slug":1056,"category":622,"order":1053},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1058,"slug":1059,"category":818,"order":1060},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1062,"slug":1063,"category":622,"order":1060},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1065,"slug":1066,"category":818,"order":1067},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1069,"slug":1070,"category":622,"order":1067},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1072,"slug":1073,"category":818,"order":1074},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1076,"slug":1077,"category":622,"order":1074},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1079,"slug":1080,"category":818,"order":1081},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1083,"slug":1084,"category":622,"order":1081},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1086,"slug":1087,"category":818,"order":1088},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1090,"slug":1091,"category":622,"order":1088},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1093,"slug":1094,"category":818,"order":1095},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1097,"slug":1098,"category":622,"order":1095},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1100,"slug":1101,"category":818,"order":1102},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1104,"slug":1105,"category":622,"order":1102},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1107,"slug":1108,"category":818,"order":1109},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1111,"slug":1112,"category":622,"order":1109},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1114,"slug":1115,"category":818,"order":1116},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1118,"slug":1119,"category":622,"order":1116},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1121,"slug":1122,"category":818,"order":1123},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1125,"slug":1126,"category":622,"order":1123},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1128,"slug":1129,"category":818,"order":1130},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1132,"slug":1133,"category":622,"order":1130},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1135,"slug":1136,"category":818,"order":1137},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1139,"slug":1140,"category":622,"order":1137},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1142,"slug":1143,"category":818,"order":1144},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1146,"slug":1147,"category":622,"order":1144},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1149,"slug":1150,"category":818,"order":1151},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1153,"slug":1154,"category":622,"order":1151},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1156,"slug":1157,"category":818,"order":1158},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1160,"slug":1161,"category":622,"order":1158},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1163,"slug":1164,"category":818,"order":1165},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1167,"slug":1168,"category":622,"order":1165},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1170,"slug":1171,"category":818,"order":1172},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1174,"slug":1175,"category":622,"order":1172},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1177,"slug":1178,"category":818,"order":1179},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1181,"slug":1182,"category":622,"order":1179},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1184,"slug":1185,"category":818,"order":1186},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1188,"slug":1189,"category":622,"order":1186},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1191,"slug":1192,"category":818,"order":1193},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1195,"slug":1196,"category":622,"order":1193},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1198,"slug":1199,"category":818,"order":1200},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1202,"slug":1203,"category":622,"order":1200},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1205,"slug":1206,"category":818,"order":1207},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1209,"slug":1210,"category":622,"order":1207},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1212,"slug":1213,"category":818,"order":1214},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1216,"slug":1217,"category":622,"order":1214},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1219,"slug":1220,"category":818,"order":1221},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1223,"slug":1224,"category":622,"order":1221},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1226,"slug":1227,"category":818,"order":1228},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1230,"slug":1231,"category":622,"order":1228},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1233,"slug":1234,"category":818,"order":1235},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1237,"slug":1238,"category":622,"order":1235},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1240,"slug":1241,"category":818,"order":1242},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1244,"slug":1245,"category":622,"order":1242},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1247,"slug":1248,"category":818,"order":1249},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1251,"slug":1252,"category":622,"order":1249},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1254,"slug":1255,"category":818,"order":1256},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1258,"slug":1259,"category":622,"order":1256},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1261,"slug":1262,"category":818,"order":1263},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1265,"slug":1266,"category":622,"order":1263},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1268,"slug":1269,"category":818,"order":1270},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1272,"slug":1273,"category":622,"order":1270},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1275,"slug":1276,"category":818,"order":1277},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1279,"slug":1280,"category":622,"order":1277},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1282,"slug":1283,"category":818,"order":1284},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1286,"slug":1287,"category":622,"order":1284},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1289,"slug":1290,"category":818,"order":1291},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1293,"slug":1294,"category":622,"order":1291},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1296,"slug":1297,"category":818,"order":1298},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1300,"slug":1301,"category":622,"order":1298},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1303,"slug":1304,"category":818,"order":1305},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1307,"slug":1308,"category":622,"order":1305},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1310,"slug":1311,"category":818,"order":1312},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1314,"slug":1315,"category":622,"order":1312},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1317,"slug":1318,"category":818,"order":1319},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1321,"slug":1322,"category":622,"order":1319},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1324,"slug":1325,"category":818,"order":1326},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1328,"slug":1329,"category":622,"order":1326},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1331,"slug":1332,"category":818,"order":1333},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1335,"slug":1336,"category":622,"order":1333},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1338,"slug":1339,"category":818,"order":1340},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1342,"slug":1343,"category":622,"order":1340},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1345,"slug":1346,"category":818,"order":1347},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1349,"slug":1350,"category":622,"order":1347},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1352,"slug":1353,"category":818,"order":1354},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1356,"slug":1357,"category":622,"order":1354},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1359,"slug":1360,"category":818,"order":1361},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1363,"slug":1364,"category":622,"order":1361},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1366,"slug":1367,"category":818,"order":1368},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1370,"slug":1371,"category":622,"order":1368},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1373,"slug":1374,"category":818,"order":1375},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1377,"slug":1378,"category":622,"order":1375},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1380,"slug":1381,"category":818,"order":1382},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1384,"slug":1385,"category":622,"order":1382},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1387,"slug":1388,"category":818,"order":1389},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1391,"slug":1392,"category":622,"order":1389},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1394,"slug":1395,"category":818,"order":1396},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1398,"slug":1399,"category":622,"order":1396},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1401,"slug":1402,"category":818,"order":1403},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1405,"slug":1406,"category":622,"order":1403},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1408,"slug":1409,"category":818,"order":1410},"2024 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