[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3462},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1927,"library-sidebar-dao":2929,"library-sidebar-models":3230},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1913,"date":1914,"description":1915,"extension":1916,"meta":1917,"navigation":1918,"order":1919,"path":1920,"seo":1921,"seoDescription":1915,"seoTitle":1922,"slug":1923,"stem":1924,"__hash__":1925,"_collection":1926},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2018 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1899},"minimark",[9,13,20,810,824,829,832,840,843,857,860,863,866,869,880,883,885,892,895,899,902,905,912,915,918,925,928,935,938,941,952,955,958,1061,1071,1074,1077,1080,1083,1090,1093,1096,1103,1114,1116,1123,1130,1137,1140,1143,1146,1149,1156,1159,1162,1165,1168,1170,1177,1180,1186,1189,1192,1196,1199,1202,1205,1212,1215,1222,1225,1231,1234,1237,1240,1243,1247,1250,1253,1256,1311,1317,1331,1338,1344,1347,1350,1353,1355,1358,1365,1368,1375,1382,1393,1403,1406,1409,1412,1415,1419,1422,1425,1428,1431,1434,1437,1440,1443,1453,1456,1459,1759,1764,1767,1774,1777,1780,1783,1786,1789,1792,1795,1798,1801,1804,1815,1826,1829,1839,1842,1845,1856,1859,1861,1864,1870,1873,1876,1879,1882,1884,1887,1890,1893,1896],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2018-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[21,22,23,42],"table",{},[24,25,26],"thead",{},[27,28,29,33,36,39],"tr",{},[30,31,32],"th",{},"年份",[30,34,35],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比",[30,37,38],{},"伯克希尔每股市值年度变动百分比",[30,40,41],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比",[43,44,45,60,74,88,101,115,129,143,157,171,185,199,213,227,241,255,269,283,297,310,324,338,352,366,379,393,407,421,434,448,462,476,489,503,517,531,545,558,571,584,598,611,624,635,649,663,676,689,703,716,730,743,756,768,782,796],"tbody",{},[27,46,47,51,54,57],{},[48,49,50],"td",{},"1965",[48,52,53],{},"23.8",[48,55,56],{},"49.5",[48,58,59],{},"10.0",[27,61,62,65,68,71],{},[48,63,64],{},"1966",[48,66,67],{},"20.3",[48,69,70],{},"(3.4)",[48,72,73],{},"(11.7)",[27,75,76,79,82,85],{},[48,77,78],{},"1967",[48,80,81],{},"11.0",[48,83,84],{},"13.3",[48,86,87],{},"30.9",[27,89,90,93,96,99],{},[48,91,92],{},"1968",[48,94,95],{},"19.0",[48,97,98],{},"77.8",[48,100,81],{},[27,102,103,106,109,112],{},[48,104,105],{},"1969",[48,107,108],{},"16.2",[48,110,111],{},"19.4",[48,113,114],{},"(8.4)",[27,116,117,120,123,126],{},[48,118,119],{},"1970",[48,121,122],{},"12.0",[48,124,125],{},"(4.6)",[48,127,128],{},"3.9",[27,130,131,134,137,140],{},[48,132,133],{},"1971",[48,135,136],{},"16.4",[48,138,139],{},"80.5",[48,141,142],{},"14.6",[27,144,145,148,151,154],{},[48,146,147],{},"1972",[48,149,150],{},"21.7",[48,152,153],{},"8.1",[48,155,156],{},"18.9",[27,158,159,162,165,168],{},[48,160,161],{},"1973",[48,163,164],{},"4.7",[48,166,167],{},"(2.5)",[48,169,170],{},"(14.8)",[27,172,173,176,179,182],{},[48,174,175],{},"1974",[48,177,178],{},"5.5",[48,180,181],{},"(48.7)",[48,183,184],{},"(26.4)",[27,186,187,190,193,196],{},[48,188,189],{},"1975",[48,191,192],{},"21.9",[48,194,195],{},"2.5",[48,197,198],{},"37.2",[27,200,201,204,207,210],{},[48,202,203],{},"1976",[48,205,206],{},"59.3",[48,208,209],{},"129.3",[48,211,212],{},"23.6",[27,214,215,218,221,224],{},[48,216,217],{},"1977",[48,219,220],{},"31.9",[48,222,223],{},"46.8",[48,225,226],{},"(7.4)",[27,228,229,232,235,238],{},[48,230,231],{},"1978",[48,233,234],{},"24.0",[48,236,237],{},"14.5",[48,239,240],{},"6.4",[27,242,243,246,249,252],{},[48,244,245],{},"1979",[48,247,248],{},"35.7",[48,250,251],{},"102.5",[48,253,254],{},"18.2",[27,256,257,260,263,266],{},[48,258,259],{},"1980",[48,261,262],{},"19.3",[48,264,265],{},"32.8",[48,267,268],{},"32.3",[27,270,271,274,277,280],{},[48,272,273],{},"1981",[48,275,276],{},"31.4",[48,278,279],{},"31.8",[48,281,282],{},"(5.0)",[27,284,285,288,291,294],{},[48,286,287],{},"1982",[48,289,290],{},"40.0",[48,292,293],{},"38.4",[48,295,296],{},"21.4",[27,298,299,302,304,307],{},[48,300,301],{},"1983",[48,303,268],{},[48,305,306],{},"69.0",[48,308,309],{},"22.4",[27,311,312,315,318,321],{},[48,313,314],{},"1984",[48,316,317],{},"13.6",[48,319,320],{},"(2.7)",[48,322,323],{},"6.1",[27,325,326,329,332,335],{},[48,327,328],{},"1985",[48,330,331],{},"48.2",[48,333,334],{},"93.7",[48,336,337],{},"31.6",[27,339,340,343,346,349],{},[48,341,342],{},"1986",[48,344,345],{},"26.1",[48,347,348],{},"14.2",[48,350,351],{},"18.6",[27,353,354,357,360,363],{},[48,355,356],{},"1987",[48,358,359],{},"19.5",[48,361,362],{},"4.6",[48,364,365],{},"5.1",[27,367,368,371,374,376],{},[48,369,370],{},"1988",[48,372,373],{},"20.1",[48,375,206],{},[48,377,378],{},"16.6",[27,380,381,384,387,390],{},[48,382,383],{},"1989",[48,385,386],{},"44.4",[48,388,389],{},"84.6",[48,391,392],{},"31.7",[27,394,395,398,401,404],{},[48,396,397],{},"1990",[48,399,400],{},"7.4",[48,402,403],{},"(23.1)",[48,405,406],{},"(3.1)",[27,408,409,412,415,418],{},[48,410,411],{},"1991",[48,413,414],{},"39.6",[48,416,417],{},"35.6",[48,419,420],{},"30.5",[27,422,423,426,428,431],{},[48,424,425],{},"1992",[48,427,67],{},[48,429,430],{},"29.8",[48,432,433],{},"7.6",[27,435,436,439,442,445],{},[48,437,438],{},"1993",[48,440,441],{},"14.3",[48,443,444],{},"38.9",[48,446,447],{},"10.1",[27,449,450,453,456,459],{},[48,451,452],{},"1994",[48,454,455],{},"13.9",[48,457,458],{},"25.0",[48,460,461],{},"1.3",[27,463,464,467,470,473],{},[48,465,466],{},"1995",[48,468,469],{},"43.1",[48,471,472],{},"57.4",[48,474,475],{},"37.6",[27,477,478,481,483,486],{},[48,479,480],{},"1996",[48,482,279],{},[48,484,485],{},"6.2",[48,487,488],{},"23.0",[27,490,491,494,497,500],{},[48,492,493],{},"1997",[48,495,496],{},"34.1",[48,498,499],{},"34.9",[48,501,502],{},"33.4",[27,504,505,508,511,514],{},[48,506,507],{},"1998",[48,509,510],{},"48.3",[48,512,513],{},"52.2",[48,515,516],{},"28.6",[27,518,519,522,525,528],{},[48,520,521],{},"1999",[48,523,524],{},"0.5",[48,526,527],{},"(19.9)",[48,529,530],{},"21.0",[27,532,533,536,539,542],{},[48,534,535],{},"2000",[48,537,538],{},"6.5",[48,540,541],{},"26.6",[48,543,544],{},"(9.1)",[27,546,547,550,553,555],{},[48,548,549],{},"2001",[48,551,552],{},"(6.2)",[48,554,538],{},[48,556,557],{},"(11.9)",[27,559,560,563,565,568],{},[48,561,562],{},"2002",[48,564,59],{},[48,566,567],{},"(3.8)",[48,569,570],{},"(22.1)",[27,572,573,576,578,581],{},[48,574,575],{},"2003",[48,577,530],{},[48,579,580],{},"15.8",[48,582,583],{},"28.7",[27,585,586,589,592,595],{},[48,587,588],{},"2004",[48,590,591],{},"10.5",[48,593,594],{},"4.3",[48,596,597],{},"10.9",[27,599,600,603,605,608],{},[48,601,602],{},"2005",[48,604,240],{},[48,606,607],{},"0.8",[48,609,610],{},"4.9",[27,612,613,616,619,622],{},[48,614,615],{},"2006",[48,617,618],{},"18.4",[48,620,621],{},"24.1",[48,623,580],{},[27,625,626,629,631,633],{},[48,627,628],{},"2007",[48,630,81],{},[48,632,583],{},[48,634,178],{},[27,636,637,640,643,646],{},[48,638,639],{},"2008",[48,641,642],{},"(9.6)",[48,644,645],{},"(31.8)",[48,647,648],{},"(37.0)",[27,650,651,654,657,660],{},[48,652,653],{},"2009",[48,655,656],{},"19.8",[48,658,659],{},"2.7",[48,661,662],{},"26.5",[27,664,665,668,671,673],{},[48,666,667],{},"2010",[48,669,670],{},"13.0",[48,672,296],{},[48,674,675],{},"15.1",[27,677,678,681,683,686],{},[48,679,680],{},"2011",[48,682,362],{},[48,684,685],{},"(4.7)",[48,687,688],{},"2.1",[27,690,691,694,697,700],{},[48,692,693],{},"2012",[48,695,696],{},"14.4",[48,698,699],{},"16.8",[48,701,702],{},"16.0",[27,704,705,708,710,713],{},[48,706,707],{},"2013",[48,709,254],{},[48,711,712],{},"32.7",[48,714,715],{},"32.4",[27,717,718,721,724,727],{},[48,719,720],{},"2014",[48,722,723],{},"8.3",[48,725,726],{},"27.0",[48,728,729],{},"13.7",[27,731,732,735,737,740],{},[48,733,734],{},"2015",[48,736,240],{},[48,738,739],{},"(12.5)",[48,741,742],{},"1.4",[27,744,745,748,751,754],{},[48,746,747],{},"2016",[48,749,750],{},"10.7",[48,752,753],{},"23.4",[48,755,122],{},[27,757,758,761,763,765],{},[48,759,760],{},"2017",[48,762,488],{},[48,764,192],{},[48,766,767],{},"21.8",[27,769,770,773,776,779],{},[48,771,772],{},"2018",[48,774,775],{},"0.4",[48,777,778],{},"2.8",[48,780,781],{},"(4.4)",[27,783,784,787,790,793],{},[48,785,786],{},"年复合增长率——1965-2018",[48,788,789],{},"18.7%",[48,791,792],{},"20.5%",[48,794,795],{},"9.7%",[27,797,798,801,804,807],{},[48,799,800],{},"累计总收益——1964-2018",[48,802,803],{},"1,091,899%",[48,805,806],{},"2,472,627%",[48,808,809],{},"15,019%",[14,811,812,815,816,819,820,823],{},[17,813,814],{},"注："," 数据为日历年度，但以下年份除外：1965年和1966年为截至9月30日的财年；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市值而非成本与市值孰低来计量所持有的权益证券。在本表中，1978年及之前年度的伯克希尔数据已按变更后的准则进行了重述。其余各方面，均使用最初报告的数据。标普500指数的数据为",[17,817,818],{},"税前","数据，而伯克希尔的数据为",[17,821,822],{},"税后","数据。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司只是简单地持有标普500指数并计提相应税款，那么在指数取得正收益的年份，其业绩将落后于标普500指数；而在指数取得负收益的年份，其业绩则会超过标普500指数。多年累积下来，税收成本将导致相当大的整体落后幅度。",[825,826,828],"h3",{"id":827},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,830,831],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) 所有股东：",[14,833,834,835,839],{},"按照通用会计准则（GAAP），伯克希尔 (Berkshire) 2018年盈利40亿美元。这个数字的组成部分包括：248亿美元的经营收益；30亿美元的非现金无形资产减值损失（几乎全部来自我们对卡夫亨氏 (Kraft Heinz) 的持股）；28亿美元出售投资证券所实现的资本利得；以及因我们投资组合中未实现资本利得减少而带来的206亿美元",[836,837,838],"em",{},"亏损","。",[14,841,842],{},"GAAP的一项新规要求我们必须将最后一项计入当期收益。正如我在2017年年报中所强调的，无论是伯克希尔副董事长查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 还是我，都不认为这条规则是合理的。我们一直认为，在伯克希尔，这种按市值计价的变化将产生我所描述的”净收益剧烈而无常的波动”。",[14,844,845,846,848,849,852,853,856],{},"这一预言的准确性从我们2018年的季度业绩中就能看出来。第一和第四季度，我们分别报告了11亿美元和254亿美元的GAAP",[836,847,838],{},"。第二和第三季度，我们分别报告了120亿美元和185亿美元的",[836,850,851],{},"利润","。与这些剧烈波动形成鲜明对比的是，伯克希尔旗下的众多业务在",[836,854,855],{},"每一个","季度都实现了持续且令人满意的经营收益。全年来看，这些经营收益比2016年176亿美元的高点增长了41%。",[14,858,859],{},"我们季度GAAP收益的大幅波动将不可避免地持续下去。这是因为我们庞大的股票投资组合——截至2018年底市值接近1730亿美元——经常会经历单日20亿美元甚至更多的价格波动，而新规则要求这些波动必须立即计入我们的净收益。事实上，在股价剧烈波动的第四季度，我们有好几天都经历了单日”盈利”或”亏损”超过40亿美元的情况。",[14,861,862],{},"我们的建议呢？请关注经营收益，不要在意各种利得或亏损。我这么说丝毫没有削弱投资对伯克希尔的重要性。长远来看，查理和我预计我们的投资将带来可观的收益，尽管时机将高度不规律。",[864,865],"hr",{},[14,867,868],{},"长期阅读我们年报的读者会发现，这封信的开头和往年不同了。近三十年来，股东信的第一段一直是报告伯克希尔每股账面价值的百分比变化。现在是时候放弃这个做法了。",[14,870,871,872,875,876,879],{},"事实是，伯克希尔账面价值的年度变化——它在第2页做了最后一次亮相——已经失去了曾经的意义。三个因素导致了这种变化。第一，伯克希尔已经逐步从一家资产集中于上市股票投资的公司，转变为一家主要价值蕴含在运营业务中的公司。查理和我预计这种转型将以不规律的方式继续下去。第二，虽然我们",[836,873,874],{},"持有的股票","是按市价计值的，但会计准则要求我们",[836,877,878],{},"旗下的运营企业","以远低于其当前价值的金额计入账面价值，这种偏差近年来越来越大。第三，随着时间推移，伯克希尔很可能将成为自身股票的重要回购方，而回购价格将高于账面价值但低于我们估计的内在价值。这种回购的数学原理很简单：每一笔交易都会使每股内在价值上升，而每股账面价值下降。两者结合的结果，是账面价值这张记分卡越来越脱离经济现实。",[14,881,882],{},"在未来的业绩表中，我们将重点关注伯克希尔的市场价格。市场可以非常反复无常——看看第2页列出的54年历史就知道了。但长期而言，伯克希尔的股价将提供衡量企业业绩的最佳标尺。",[864,884],{},[14,886,887,888,891],{},"话题继续之前，我要告诉你们一个好消息——",[836,889,890],{},"真正的","好消息——它没有反映在我们的财务报表中。这关乎我们在2018年初进行的管理层变革：阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 受命执掌全部保险业务，格雷格·阿贝尔 (Greg Abel) 则获授权管理所有其他业务。这些调整早就该做了。现在的伯克希尔，比我独自监管运营时管理得好多了。阿吉特和格雷格都有罕见的才华，伯克希尔的血液流淌在他们的血管里。",[14,893,894],{},"好了，现在让我们来看看你们拥有的都是些什么。",[825,896,898],{"id":897},"关注森林忘掉树木","关注森林——忘掉树木",[14,900,901],{},"评估伯克希尔时，投资者有时会过度纠结于我们众多不同业务的细节——也就是我们经济”森林”中的一棵棵”树”。考虑到我们拥有的品种从小树苗到参天红杉无所不包，逐一分析会让人头脑发麻。我们有几棵树已经染了病，大概撑不过十年。但其他很多树木，注定会长得更加高大秀美。",[14,903,904],{},"幸运的是，要粗略估计伯克希尔的内在商业价值，并不需要逐棵评估每一棵树。因为我们的森林里有五片非常重要的”树林”，每一片都可以相当准确地进行整体评估。其中四片是由容易理解的多元业务集群和金融资产组成的。第五片——我们庞大而多元的保险业务——以一种不太显眼的方式为伯克希尔创造巨大价值，我将在后文加以解释。",[14,906,907,908,911],{},"在我们更仔细地审视前四片树林之前，让我提醒大家我们配置资本的首要目标：买入管理出色的企业——",[836,909,910],{},"全部或部分","——它们必须具备良好且持久的经济特性。我们还需要以合理的价格完成这些收购。",[14,913,914],{},"有时候我们能够买到符合标准的公司的控制权。但更多时候，我们在上市公司中找到我们所需的特质，通常买入5%到10%的股权。我们这种双管齐下的大规模资本配置方法在美国企业界很少见，但它有时会给我们带来重要的优势。",[14,916,917],{},"近年来，我们应该走的路已经很清楚了：买入许多股票所能获得的价值，远超整体收购一家企业。这种差异导致我们去年买入了约430亿美元的上市公司股票，而仅卖出190亿美元。查理和我认为，我们投资的这些公司提供了极佳的价值，远超并购交易中所能获得的。",[14,919,920,921,924],{},"尽管我们最近大量增持了上市股票，但伯克希尔森林中最有价值的那片树林，依然是伯克希尔控股的数十家非保险企业（通常拥有100%的所有权，从未低于80%）。这些子公司去年赚了168亿美元。而且我们说的”赚”，是扣除了",[836,922,923],{},"全部","所得税、利息支出、管理层薪酬（无论是现金还是股票形式）、重组费用、折旧、摊销和总部管理费用之后剩下的。",[14,926,927],{},"这种收益标准与华尔街银行家和企业CEO们经常吹嘘的大相径庭。他们的报告往往以”调整后EBITDA”（息税折旧摊销前利润）为亮点，这个指标通过排除各种非常真实的成本来重新定义”收益”。",[14,929,930,931,934],{},"比如，管理层有时候会声称，公司的股票薪酬不该算作费用。（那它是什么——股东送的",[836,932,933],{},"礼物","？）还有重组费用呢？好吧，也许去年那次特定的调整不会再发生了。但大大小小的重组在企业经营中太常见了——伯克希尔就走过几十次这样的路，而我们的股东每一次都得承担成本。",[14,936,937],{},"亚伯拉罕·林肯 (Abraham Lincoln) 曾经提出一个问题：“如果你把狗尾巴叫做腿，它有几条腿？”然后他自问自答：“四条，因为把尾巴叫做腿并不能让它变成腿。”林肯要是到了华尔街，恐怕会很孤独。",[14,939,940],{},"查理和我确实认为，我们14亿美元的收购相关摊销费用（详见K-84页）并非真正的经济成本。在评估私营企业和上市股票时，我们会将这种摊销”成本”加回到GAAP收益中。",[14,942,943,944,947,948,951],{},"相比之下，伯克希尔84亿美元的折旧费用",[836,945,946],{},"低估","了我们真正的经济成本。事实上，仅仅为了保持我们各项业务的竞争力，我们每年需要花费的资金就",[836,949,950],{},"超过","这个数字。在这些”维持性”资本支出之外，我们还花费巨额资金追求增长。总体而言，伯克希尔去年在厂房、设备和其他固定资产上投资了创纪录的145亿美元，其中89%花在了美国。",[14,953,954],{},"按价值排名，伯克希尔第二片树林是我们的股票投资组合，通常持有一家大型公司5%到10%的股权。如前所述，截至年底我们的股票投资市值接近1730亿美元，远高于成本。如果年底时全部卖出，需要缴纳约147亿美元的联邦所得税。我们很可能会长期持有其中大部分股票。不过归根结底，卖出时实现的收益将按照当时的税率纳税。",[14,956,957],{},"我们的被投资公司去年向我们支付了38亿美元的股息，这一金额在2019年还会增加。但比股息重要得多的，是这些公司每年留存的巨额利润。下面是一组数据作为参考，只涵盖我们最大的五个持仓。",[21,959,960,976],{},[24,961,962],{},[27,963,964,967,970,973],{},[30,965,966],{},"公司",[30,968,969],{},"年末持股比例",[30,971,972],{},"伯克希尔应占股息(百万美元)(1)",[30,974,975],{},"伯克希尔应占留存收益(百万美元)(2)",[43,977,978,992,1006,1020,1034,1048],{},[27,979,980,983,986,989],{},[48,981,982],{},"美国运通 (American Express)",[48,984,985],{},"17.9%",[48,987,988],{},"$ 237",[48,990,991],{},"$ 997",[27,993,994,997,1000,1003],{},[48,995,996],{},"苹果 (Apple)",[48,998,999],{},"5.4%",[48,1001,1002],{},"745",[48,1004,1005],{},"2,502",[27,1007,1008,1011,1014,1017],{},[48,1009,1010],{},"美国银行 (Bank of America)",[48,1012,1013],{},"9.5%",[48,1015,1016],{},"551",[48,1018,1019],{},"2,096",[27,1021,1022,1025,1028,1031],{},[48,1023,1024],{},"可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)",[48,1026,1027],{},"9.4%",[48,1029,1030],{},"624",[48,1032,1033],{},"(21)",[27,1035,1036,1039,1042,1045],{},[48,1037,1038],{},"富国银行 (Wells Fargo)",[48,1040,1041],{},"9.8%",[48,1043,1044],{},"809",[48,1046,1047],{},"1,263",[27,1049,1050,1053,1055,1058],{},[48,1051,1052],{},"合计",[48,1054],{},[48,1056,1057],{},"$ 2,966",[48,1059,1060],{},"$ 6,837",[1062,1063,1064,1068],"ol",{},[1065,1066,1067],"li",{},"根据当前年度分红率计算。",[1065,1069,1070],{},"根据2018年收益减去已支付的普通股和优先股股息。",[14,1072,1073],{},"GAAP——即规定我们如何报告收益的准则——不允许我们将被投资公司的留存收益计入我们的财务报表。但这些收益对我们有着巨大的价值：多年来，被投资公司（作为一个整体）的留存收益最终为伯克希尔带来的资本利得，超过了这些公司为我们再投资的每一美元。",[14,1075,1076],{},"我们所有的主要持仓公司都有出色的经济效益，大多数都将部分留存收益用于回购股份。我们非常喜欢这一点：如果查理和我认为一家被投资公司的股价被低估了，我们就会很高兴看到管理层用部分收益来提高伯克希尔的持股比例。",[14,1078,1079],{},"上表中有一个例子：过去八年来，伯克希尔在美国运通 (American Express) 的持股数量一直没变。但由于美国运通不断回购，我们的持股比例从12.6%上升到了17.9%。去年美国运通69亿美元的收益中，属于伯克希尔的份额是12亿美元，大约相当于我们买入这笔股份时所付13亿美元的96%。当收益不断增长而流通股不断减少时，长期持有的股东通常会日子过得不错。",[14,1081,1082],{},"伯克希尔的第三类企业资产是我们与其他方共享控制权的四家公司。2018年，我们在这些企业税后经营收益中应占的份额合计约13亿美元——分别是卡夫亨氏 (Kraft Heinz) 的26.7%、Berkadia的50%、德州输电公司 (Electric Transmission Texas) 的50%，以及Pilot Flying J的38.6%。",[14,1084,1085,1086,1089],{},"在我们的第四片树林中，伯克希尔年末持有1120亿美元的美国国库券和其他现金等价物，另有200亿美元的各类固定收益工具。我们认为这些储备中有一部分是不可动用的——我们承诺永远持有至少200亿美元的现金等价物，以防范外部灾难。我们还承诺避免",[836,1087,1088],{},"任何","可能威胁到这一缓冲资金的行为。",[14,1091,1092],{},"伯克希尔将永远是一座金融堡垒。在管理过程中，我会犯一些代价高昂的错误，也会错过很多机会——其中一些本该对我来说显而易见。有时候，投资者逃离股市，我们的股票也会大跌。但我永远不会冒现金短缺的风险。",[14,1094,1095],{},"未来几年，我们希望将大量过剩流动资金投入到伯克希尔将永久拥有的业务中去。然而，眼下的前景不太乐观：拥有良好长期前景的企业，价格高得离谱。",[14,1097,1098,1099,1102],{},"这一令人失望的现实意味着，2019年我们可能会再次扩大上市股票的持仓。尽管如此，我们仍然期待着一笔”大象”级的收购。即使在我们88岁和95岁的年纪——",[836,1100,1101],{},"我是年轻的那位","——这种前景也会让我和查理心跳加速。（光是写下可能有一笔大买卖的可能性，我的脉搏就飙升了。）",[14,1104,1105,1106,1109,1110,1113],{},"我预期会买更多股票，这",[836,1107,1108],{},"不是","一个看涨市场的信号。查理和我不知道股市下周或明年会怎么走。这类预测",[836,1111,1112],{},"从来","不是我们的事。我们的思考集中在：一个有吸引力的企业的一部分，其价值是否高于它的市场价格。",[864,1115],{},[14,1117,1118,1119,1122],{},"我相信，将我们四大类资产的价值加总，然后减去出售有价证券最终应缴纳的税款，就可以",[836,1120,1121],{},"大致","估算出伯克希尔的内在价值。",[14,1124,1125,1126,1129],{},"你可能会问，如果我们出售某些全资子公司，是不是也该扣除这笔重大税款？忘了这个念头吧：即使卖掉",[836,1127,1128],{},"完全不用","交税，卖掉我们任何一家出色的公司也是愚蠢的。真正好的生意极其难找。卖掉你有幸拥有的好企业毫无道理。",[14,1131,1132,1133,1136],{},"在计算伯克希尔非保险业务的收益时，我们",[836,1134,1135],{},"所有","债务的利息成本都已作为费用扣除。除此之外，我们持有的前四类资产中有很大一部分，其资金来源于伯克希尔的第五片树林——一系列出色的保险公司。我们称这些资金为”浮存金“，长期而言，我们预计获取这些资金是零成本的——甚至可能更好。我们将在本信后面解释浮存金的特性。",[14,1138,1139],{},"最后，有一点至关重要且意义深远：伯克希尔的价值之所以能最大化，是因为我们将五片树林整合成了一个有机的整体。这种安排使我们能够无缝且客观地配置大量资本，消除企业风险，避免各自为政，以极低成本为资产融资，偶尔利用税收优势，并将管理费用降至最低。",[14,1141,1142],{},"在伯克希尔，整体远远大于各部分之和。",[825,1144,1145],{"id":1145},"回购与报告",[14,1147,1148],{},"之前我提到，伯克希尔将不时回购自己的股票。假设我们以低于伯克希尔内在价值的价格买入——这当然是我们的目标——回购将同时有利于离开的股东和留下来的股东。",[14,1150,1151,1152,1155],{},"诚然，对于离开的股东来说，回购带来的好处微乎其微。因为我们谨慎的买入方式会尽量减少对伯克希尔股价的影响。尽管如此，市场上多一个买家，对卖家总还是有",[836,1153,1154],{},"些","好处的。",[14,1157,1158],{},"对于留下来的股东，好处就很明显了：如果市场给一位离开的合伙人的权益定价为，比方说，1美元只值90美分，那么公司每回购一次，留下来的股东每股内在价值就增加一些。显然，回购必须对价格敏感：盲目买入被高估的股票是在毁灭价值。这个道理，许多爱搞宣传或永远乐观的CEO们却没搞明白。",[14,1160,1161],{},"当一家公司表示正在考虑回购时，至关重要的一点是，所有股东合伙人都必须获得做出明智价值判断所需的信息。提供这些信息，正是查理和我在这份报告中力图做到的。我们不希望任何合伙人因为被误导或信息不充分而把股份卖回给公司。",[14,1163,1164],{},"当然，有些卖家可能不认同我们的价值判断，另一些可能找到了他们认为比伯克希尔更有吸引力的投资。第二类人中有些肯定是对的：毫无疑问，有很多股票的回报将远超我们。",[14,1166,1167],{},"此外，有些股东会决定，是时候让自己或家人做一个净消费者，而不是继续积累财富。查理和我暂时没兴趣加入这个行列。也许到了老年，我们会变成大手大脚的人。",[864,1169],{},[14,1171,1172,1173,1176],{},"54年来，我们在伯克希尔的管理决策一直是从留下来的股东的角度出发，而不是从离开的股东出发。因此，查理和我",[836,1174,1175],{},"从未","关注过当季的业绩。",[14,1178,1179],{},"事实上，伯克希尔可能是财富500强 (Fortune 500) 里唯一一家不编制月度损益报告或资产负债表的公司。当然，我会定期查看大多数子公司的月度财务报告。但查理和我只按季度了解伯克希尔的整体收益和财务状况。",[14,1181,1182,1183,1185],{},"此外，伯克希尔没有全公司范围的预算（尽管许多子公司觉得预算很有用）。我们没有这种工具，意味着母公司",[836,1184,1112],{},"没有一个要达到的季度”数字”。摒弃这种目标向我们众多经理人传递了一个重要信号，强化了我们所珍视的企业文化。",[14,1187,1188],{},"多年来，查理和我见过各种各样糟糕的企业行为——无论是会计还是运营方面——都是被管理层迎合华尔街预期的欲望所驱使。为了不让”华尔街”失望，一开始只是”无伤大雅”的数字修饰——比如在季末突击出货、对不断上升的保险损失视而不见、或者从”小金库”准备金中取用——但这可能成为走向全面欺诈的第一步。“就这一次玩玩数字”也许是CEO的初衷，但很少是最终结果。而一旦老板可以稍微作点弊，下属也就很容易为类似行为找到借口了。",[14,1190,1191],{},"在伯克希尔，我们的听众既不是分析师也不是评论员：查理和我是在为我们的股东合伙人工作。汇报到我们手上的数字，就是我们原封不动发送给你们的数字。",[825,1193,1195],{"id":1194},"非保险业务从棒棒糖到火车头","非保险业务——从棒棒糖到火车头",[14,1197,1198],{},"让我们再来仔细看看伯克希尔最有价值的那片树林——我们的非保险业务集合。不过请记住，我们不想不必要地向竞争对手透露可能对他们有用的信息。",[14,1200,1201],{},"各项业务的更多细节详见K-5至K-22页以及K-40至K-51页。",[14,1203,1204],{},"作为一个整体，这些业务2018年的税前收益为208亿美元，比2017年增长24%。我们2018年进行的收购对此贡献微乎其微。",[14,1206,1207,1208,1211],{},"在这里的讨论中我将使用税前数字。但2018年这些业务的税后收益增幅要大得",[836,1209,1210],{},"多","——高达47%——这在很大程度上归功于年初开始实施的企业税率下调。让我们看看为什么影响如此之大。",[14,1213,1214],{},"先从一个经济现实说起：不管你喜不喜欢，美国政府”拥有”伯克希尔收益的一部分，份额大小由国会决定。实际上，我们国家的财政部持有我们一种特殊类别的股票——姑且称之为AA股——从伯克希尔领取高额”股息“（也就是税款）。2017年跟往年一样，企业税率是35%，这意味着财政部的AA股表现相当不错。实际上，财政部这只1965年我们接管时还分文不付的”股票”，如今已经变成了每年向联邦政府贡献数十亿美元的资产。",[14,1216,1217,1218,1221],{},"然而去年，当企业税率从35%降至21%时，政府”所有权”的40%（也就是14\u002F35）被免费还给了伯克希尔。因此，我们A股和B股的股东在",[836,1219,1220],{},"他们的","股份上获得了重大的收益提升。",[14,1223,1224],{},"这实质性地增加了你我持有的伯克希尔股票的内在价值。同样的逻辑，也提升了伯克希尔所持几乎所有股票的内在价值。",[14,1226,1227,1228,839],{},"以上是主要情况。但还有其他一些削弱我们收益的因素需要考虑。比如，我们大型公用事业业务获得的税收优惠会转嫁给客户。同时，我们从国内公司获得的大量股息所适用的税率几乎没变，大约为13%。（长期以来，这种较低的税率都是合理的，因为我们的被投资公司已经就向我们支付的收益缴过税了。）但总体而言，新税法使我们的业务和我们持有的股票都更有价值了——",[836,1229,1230],{},"而且是相当多",[14,1232,1233],{},"这表明我们又该回到非保险业务的表现上了。在这片树林中，我们的两棵参天红杉是BNSF铁路 (BNSF) 和伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源 (Berkshire Hathaway Energy)（持有90.9%的股权）。两者合计，去年的税前收益为93亿美元，比2017年增长6%。详见K-5至K-10页以及K-40至K-45页。",[14,1235,1236],{},"我们接下来的五家非保险子公司，按收益排名（但在此按字母顺序列示），分别是：克莱顿房屋 (Clayton Homes)、国际金属加工 (International Metalworking)、路博润 (Lubrizol)、马蒙集团 (Marmon) 和精密铸件公司 (Precision Castparts)，2018年税前收益合计64亿美元，高于2017年的55亿美元。",[14,1238,1239],{},"按同样方式排名和列示的下五家公司——森林河公司 (Forest River)、Johns Manville、MiTek、Shaw和TTI——去年的税前收益合计24亿美元，高于2017年的21亿美元。",[14,1241,1242],{},"伯克希尔旗下其余的非保险企业——数量还有很多——2018年的税前收益合计36亿美元，2017年为33亿美元。",[825,1244,1246],{"id":1245},"保险浮存金与伯克希尔的融资","保险、“浮存金”与伯克希尔的融资",[14,1248,1249],{},"我们的财产意外险业务——第五片树林——自1967年以来一直是驱动伯克希尔增长的引擎。那一年，我们以860万美元收购了国民保险公司 (National Indemnity) 及其姊妹公司国民火灾与海事保险公司 (National Fire & Marine)。如今，以净资产衡量，国民保险公司是全球最大的财产意外险公司。",[14,1251,1252],{},"我们被财产意外险业务吸引的原因之一是这个行业的商业模式：财产意外险公司先收保费，后付理赔。在极端情况下，比如石棉暴露引发的索赔或严重的工伤事故，赔付可以延续数十年。",[14,1254,1255],{},"这种先收钱、后付款的模式使得财产意外险公司持有大量资金——我们称之为”浮存金“——这些资金最终会流向他人。但在此期间，保险公司可以用这笔浮存金为自己投资。虽然个别保单和理赔来来去去，但一家保险公司持有的浮存金规模相对于保费规模通常相当稳定。因此，随着业务增长，我们的浮存金也跟着增长。而增长的情况，如下表所示：",[21,1257,1258,1267],{},[24,1259,1260],{},[27,1261,1262,1264],{},[30,1263,32],{},[30,1265,1266],{},"浮存金（百万美元）*",[43,1268,1269,1276,1283,1290,1297,1304],{},[27,1270,1271,1273],{},[48,1272,119],{},[48,1274,1275],{},"$ 39",[27,1277,1278,1280],{},[48,1279,259],{},[48,1281,1282],{},"237",[27,1284,1285,1287],{},[48,1286,397],{},[48,1288,1289],{},"1,632",[27,1291,1292,1294],{},[48,1293,535],{},[48,1295,1296],{},"27,871",[27,1298,1299,1301],{},[48,1300,667],{},[48,1302,1303],{},"65,832",[27,1305,1306,1308],{},[48,1307,772],{},[48,1309,1310],{},"122,732",[1312,1313,1314],"ul",{},[1065,1315,1316],{},"包括人寿、年金和健康保险业务产生的浮存金。",[14,1318,1319,1320,1323,1324,1327,1328,1330],{},"随着时间推移，我们可能会经历浮存金的下降。如果真是如此，这种下降也将",[836,1321,1322],{},"非常","缓慢——任何一年最多不超过3%。我们保险合同的性质决定了，我们",[836,1325,1326],{},"永远","不会面临对我们现金资源有重大影响的即时或短期资金需求。这种结构是精心设计的，也是我们保险公司无与伦比的财务实力的关键组成部分。这种实力",[836,1329,1326],{},"不会被削弱。",[14,1332,1333,1334,1337],{},"如果我们的保费超过了费用和最终赔付的总和，我们的保险业务就会录得承保利润，这将增加浮存金所产生的投资收益。赚到这种利润时，我们就是在免费使用资金——更妙的是，因为持有这些资金我们反倒",[836,1335,1336],{},"获得了","收入。",[14,1339,1340,1341,1343],{},"不幸的是，所有保险公司都渴望实现这种美好结果，由此带来了激烈的竞争。竞争之激烈，有时会导致整个财产意外险行业出现重大承保",[836,1342,838],{},"。这个亏损，实际上就是行业为持有浮存金而付出的代价。竞争格局几乎注定了保险行业——尽管旗下所有公司都享有浮存金收益——与其他美国企业相比，在有形净资产回报率上将继续保持令人沮丧的低水平纪录。",[14,1345,1346],{},"尽管如此，我还是看好我们自己的前景。伯克希尔无与伦比的财务实力使得我们在浮存金投资方面的灵活性远超一般财产意外险公司。我们可选择的众多投资方式始终是一种优势，偶尔还会带来重大机遇。当其他保险公司束手束脚时，我们的选择反而更多了。",[14,1348,1349],{},"此外，我们的财产意外险业务有着出色的承保记录。在过去16年中，伯克希尔有15年实现了承保盈利，唯一的例外是2017年，当年我们的税前亏损为32亿美元。在整整16年中，我们的税前承保利润合计为270亿美元，其中20亿美元来自2018年。",[14,1351,1352],{},"这一记录并非偶然：严格的风险评估是我们保险经理们每天聚焦的重点，他们深知浮存金的好处可能被糟糕的承保结果淹没。所有保险公司嘴上都这么说。但在伯克希尔，这是一种信仰——旧约风格的那种。",[864,1354],{},[14,1356,1357],{},"在大多数情况下，企业的资金来源有两个——债务和股权。在伯克希尔，我们还有两支额外的箭在弓袋里，不过让我们先谈谈常规的部分。",[14,1359,1360,1361,1364],{},"我们很少举债。需要指出的是，许多管理者会不同意这一政策，他们认为大量举债可以提升股东回报。而且这些更敢冒险的CEO在",[836,1362,1363],{},"大多数","时候是对的。",[14,1366,1367],{},"然而，在罕见且不可预测的时刻，信贷会消失，债务会变成致命的。一个俄罗斯轮盘赌式的等式——通常会赢，偶尔会死——对于那些只分享公司上涨好处而不承担下跌风险的人来说，或许在财务上说得通。但这种策略对伯克希尔来说就是疯狂。理性的人不会拿自己已经拥有和需要的东西，去冒险换取自己没有也不需要的东西。",[14,1369,1370,1371,1374],{},"你在我们合并资产负债表上看到的大部分债务——见K-65页——都在我们的铁路和能源子公司，两者都是重资产企业。在经济衰退期间，这些企业的现金流依然充沛。它们使用的债务既适合各自的运营，也",[836,1372,1373],{},"不受","伯克希尔的担保。",[14,1376,1377,1378,1381],{},"我们的权益资本就是另一回事了：伯克希尔的3490亿美元在美国企业界无人能及。通过长期保留所有收益，并让复利发挥它的魔力，我们积累了资金，使我们得以购买和发展前面描述的那些宝贵资产。如果我们当初选择100%分红的政策，我们手头就只有1965财年开始时的那2200",[836,1379,1380],{},"万","美元了。",[14,1383,1384,1385,1388,1389,1392],{},"除了债务和股权之外，伯克希尔还从两种不太常见的企业资金来源中大获裨益。较大的一个就是我描述过的浮存金。到目前为止，尽管这笔资金在我们的资产负债表上被记录为巨额净",[836,1386,1387],{},"负债","，但它对我们的效用超过了等额的股权。原因在于，浮存金通常伴随着承保利润。实际上，在大多数年份里，我们是因为持有和使用别人的钱而",[836,1390,1391],{},"获得报酬","的。",[14,1394,1395,1396,1399,1400,1402],{},"正如我以前多次强调的，这种美好的结果远非板上钉钉：评估保险风险的错误可能是巨大的，而且可能需要多年才能浮出水面。（想想石棉。）一场让卡特里娜飓风 (Katrina) 和迈克尔飓风 (Michael) 都黯然失色的巨灾",[836,1397,1398],{},"必将","发生——也许是明天，也许是几十年后。“大事件”可能来自传统渠道，如飓风或地震，也可能是完全出乎意料的，比如一场网络攻击，其灾难性后果超出了保险公司目前的任何想象。当这样一场超级灾难降临时，我们分担的损失将是巨大的——",[836,1401,1322],{},"巨大。然而，与许多其他保险公司不同的是，我们会寻求在第二天就增加业务。",[14,1404,1405],{},"最后一个资金来源——伯克希尔在这方面同样拥有非同寻常的规模——是递延所得税。这些是我们最终要支付的负债，但在此期间它们是无息的。",[14,1407,1408],{},"如前所述，在我们505亿美元的递延税款中，约有147亿美元来自我们所持股票的未实现资本利得。这些负债在我们的财务报表中按当前21%的企业税率计提，但将按照我们出售投资时的届时税率支付。从现在到那时，我们实际上有了一笔无息”贷款”，使我们在股票投资上能动用比正常情况更多的资金。",[14,1410,1411],{},"另外283亿美元的递延税款，源于我们在计算当期应缴税款时能够加速折旧厂房和设备等资产。我们记录的前期税收节省将在未来几年逐步回转。不过，我们会持续购买新的资产。只要现行税法不变，这个资金来源应该会呈上升趋势。",[14,1413,1414],{},"长期来看，伯克希尔的融资基础——也就是我们资产负债表的右边——应该会增长，主要来自我们的留存收益。我们的任务是把留存下来的资金好好用在左边，买入有吸引力的资产。",[825,1416,1418],{"id":1417},"盖可保险与托尼奈斯利","盖可保险与托尼·奈斯利",[14,1420,1421],{},"这个标题说明了一切：公司和这个人密不可分。",[14,1423,1424],{},"托尼 (Tony) 1961年加入盖可保险 (GEICO)，当时他才18岁；我在20世纪70年代中期认识了他。那时，GEICO在经历了四十年的快速增长和出色承保业绩之后，突然发现自己濒临破产。当时新上任的管理层严重低估了GEICO的损失成本，因而对产品定价过低。GEICO账面上那些持续产生亏损的保单——数量不少于230万份——还要好几个月才能到期并重新定价。与此同时，公司的净资产正迅速趋近于零。",[14,1426,1427],{},"1976年，杰克·伯恩 (Jack Byrne) 受命担任CEO来拯救GEICO。他上任后不久我就见到了他，认定他就是这个职位的完美人选，于是开始大举买入GEICO的股票。几个月内，伯克希尔买下了该公司约三分之一的股份，后来这个比例在我们没有再花一分钱的情况下增长到了大约二分之一。这种惊人的增长之所以发生，是因为GEICO在恢复健康之后一直在回购股票。算下来，我们持有的这半壁江山总共花了伯克希尔4700万美元，大约相当于你今天在纽约买一套顶级公寓的价格。",[14,1429,1430],{},"现在让我们快进17年到1993年，托尼·奈斯利 (Tony Nicely) 被提拔为CEO。那时，GEICO的声誉和盈利能力已经恢复——但增长还没有。事实上，到1992年底，公司账面上只有190万份汽车保单，远低于危机前的最高水平。按美国汽车保险公司的销售额排名，GEICO当时不起眼地排在第七位。",[14,1432,1433],{},"1995年底，在托尼让GEICO重新焕发活力之后，伯克希尔提出以23亿美元收购公司剩余50%的股份——大约是我们购买前一半所付价格的50倍（还有人说我从不出高价呢！）。我们的出价成功了，为伯克希尔带来了一家出色但尚未充分开发的公司，以及一位同样出色的CEO——他带领GEICO前进的程度超出了我的想象。",[14,1435,1436],{},"GEICO现在是美国第二大汽车保险公司，销售额比1995年增长了12倍。自收购以来，累计税前承保利润达155亿美元，可供投资的浮存金从25亿美元增长到221亿美元。",[14,1438,1439],{},"据我估计，托尼对GEICO的管理使伯克希尔的内在价值增加了500多亿美元。更重要的是，作为管理者他堪称典范，帮助他手下4万名员工发现并打磨了他们自己都不知道拥有的能力。",[14,1441,1442],{},"去年，托尼决定从CEO职位上退下来，6月30日他把职位移交给了长期搭档比尔·罗伯茨 (Bill Roberts)。我认识比尔并看着他工作了几十年，托尼再一次做出了正确的选择。托尼仍担任董事长，他余生都会尽心尽力地帮助GEICO。他做不到少出力。",[14,1444,1445,1446,1448,1449,1452],{},"伯克希尔的",[836,1447,1135],{},"股东都应该感谢托尼。",[836,1450,1451],{},"我","排在名单的第一个。",[825,1454,1455],{"id":1455},"投资",[14,1457,1458],{},"下面我们列出年末市值最大的15只普通股投资。我们持有的卡夫亨氏——325,442,152股——不在此列，因为伯克希尔是控股集团的一部分，因此必须采用”权益法”核算这项投资。在资产负债表上，伯克希尔持有的卡夫亨氏按GAAP记录为138亿美元，这一金额已扣除了我们应分摊的卡夫亨氏2018年大额无形资产减值。截至年末，我们持有的卡夫亨氏市值为140亿美元，成本为98亿美元。",[21,1460,1461,1479],{},[24,1462,1463],{},[27,1464,1465,1468,1470,1473,1476],{},[30,1466,1467],{},"股数*",[30,1469,966],{},[30,1471,1472],{},"持股比例",[30,1474,1475],{},"截至2018\u002F12\u002F31成本（百万美元）**",[30,1477,1478],{},"截至2018\u002F12\u002F31市值（百万美元）",[43,1480,1481,1497,1513,1529,1546,1563,1579,1596,1612,1629,1646,1663,1679,1696,1713,1729,1744],{},[27,1482,1483,1486,1488,1491,1494],{},[48,1484,1485],{},"151,610,700",[48,1487,982],{},[48,1489,1490],{},"17.9",[48,1492,1493],{},"$ 1,287",[48,1495,1496],{},"$ 14,452",[27,1498,1499,1502,1504,1507,1510],{},[48,1500,1501],{},"255,300,329",[48,1503,996],{},[48,1505,1506],{},"5.4",[48,1508,1509],{},"36,044",[48,1511,1512],{},"40,271",[27,1514,1515,1518,1520,1523,1526],{},[48,1516,1517],{},"918,919,000",[48,1519,1010],{},[48,1521,1522],{},"9.5",[48,1524,1525],{},"11,650",[48,1527,1528],{},"22,642",[27,1530,1531,1534,1537,1540,1543],{},[48,1532,1533],{},"84,488,751",[48,1535,1536],{},"纽约梅隆银行 (Bank of New York Mellon)",[48,1538,1539],{},"8.8",[48,1541,1542],{},"3,860",[48,1544,1545],{},"3,977",[27,1547,1548,1551,1554,1557,1560],{},[48,1549,1550],{},"6,789,054",[48,1552,1553],{},"特许通讯 (Charter Communications)",[48,1555,1556],{},"3.0",[48,1558,1559],{},"1,210",[48,1561,1562],{},"1,935",[27,1564,1565,1568,1570,1573,1576],{},[48,1566,1567],{},"400,000,000",[48,1569,1024],{},[48,1571,1572],{},"9.4",[48,1574,1575],{},"1,299",[48,1577,1578],{},"18,940",[27,1580,1581,1584,1587,1590,1593],{},[48,1582,1583],{},"65,535,000",[48,1585,1586],{},"达美航空 (Delta Air Lines)",[48,1588,1589],{},"9.6",[48,1591,1592],{},"2,860",[48,1594,1595],{},"3,270",[27,1597,1598,1601,1604,1606,1609],{},[48,1599,1600],{},"18,784,698",[48,1602,1603],{},"高盛 (Goldman Sachs)",[48,1605,610],{},[48,1607,1608],{},"2,380",[48,1610,1611],{},"3,138",[27,1613,1614,1617,1620,1623,1626],{},[48,1615,1616],{},"50,661,394",[48,1618,1619],{},"摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase)",[48,1621,1622],{},"1.5",[48,1624,1625],{},"5,605",[48,1627,1628],{},"4,946",[27,1630,1631,1634,1637,1640,1643],{},[48,1632,1633],{},"24,669,778",[48,1635,1636],{},"穆迪 (Moody’s)",[48,1638,1639],{},"12.9",[48,1641,1642],{},"248",[48,1644,1645],{},"3,455",[27,1647,1648,1651,1654,1657,1660],{},[48,1649,1650],{},"47,890,899",[48,1652,1653],{},"西南航空 (Southwest Airlines)",[48,1655,1656],{},"8.7",[48,1658,1659],{},"2,005",[48,1661,1662],{},"2,226",[27,1664,1665,1668,1671,1673,1676],{},[48,1666,1667],{},"21,938,642",[48,1669,1670],{},"美联航 (United Continental)",[48,1672,153],{},[48,1674,1675],{},"1,195",[48,1677,1678],{},"1,837",[27,1680,1681,1684,1687,1690,1693],{},[48,1682,1683],{},"146,346,999",[48,1685,1686],{},"美国合众银行 (U.S. Bancorp)",[48,1688,1689],{},"9.1",[48,1691,1692],{},"5,548",[48,1694,1695],{},"6,688",[27,1697,1698,1701,1704,1707,1710],{},[48,1699,1700],{},"43,387,980",[48,1702,1703],{},"USG公司 (USG Corporation)",[48,1705,1706],{},"31.0",[48,1708,1709],{},"836",[48,1711,1712],{},"1,851",[27,1714,1715,1718,1720,1723,1726],{},[48,1716,1717],{},"449,349,102",[48,1719,1038],{},[48,1721,1722],{},"9.8",[48,1724,1725],{},"10,639",[48,1727,1728],{},"20,706",[27,1730,1731,1733,1736,1738,1741],{},[48,1732],{},[48,1734,1735],{},"其他",[48,1737],{},[48,1739,1740],{},"16,201",[48,1742,1743],{},"22,423",[27,1745,1746,1748,1751,1753,1756],{},[48,1747],{},[48,1749,1750],{},"按市值计算的普通股投资合计",[48,1752],{},[48,1754,1755],{},"$ 102,867",[48,1757,1758],{},"$ 172,757",[1312,1760,1761],{},[1065,1762,1763],{},"不包括伯克希尔子公司养老基金持有的股份。",[14,1765,1766],{},"** 此为我们的实际买入成本，也是计税基础。",[14,1768,1769,1770,1773],{},"查理和我",[836,1771,1772],{},"并不","把上面列出的1728亿美元视为一堆股票代码——不是什么因为”华尔街”降级、美联储预期动作、可能的政治变局、经济学家的预测或任何其他当下热门话题而该抛弃的金融游戏。",[14,1775,1776],{},"相反，我们看到的是我们部分持有的一群公司的集合。按加权基础计算，它们在经营所需的净有形资产上大约赚取*20%*的回报率。而且，这些公司在赚取利润的同时并没有过度举债。",[14,1778,1779],{},"这种回报率，对于大型、成熟、容易理解的企业来说，在任何环境下都是了不起的。当你把它与过去十年许多投资者在债券上接受的回报率相比，更是令人瞠目——比如30年期美国国债收益率只有3%甚至更低。",[14,1781,1782],{},"当然，有时候一只股票的买入价格高得离谱，就会让一家出色的企业变成一笔糟糕的投资——即便不是永久的，至少也会痛苦很长时间。但随着时间推移，投资业绩终将与经营业绩趋于一致。而且，正如我接下来要详细说的，美国企业的历史表现是非凡的。",[825,1784,1785],{"id":1785},"美国顺风",[14,1787,1788],{},"到今年3月11日，从我第一次投资美国企业至今就整整77年了。那一年是1942年，我11岁，倾其所有投入了114.75美元——这是我从6岁起就开始攒的钱。我买了3股城市服务公司 (Cities Service) 的优先股。我成了一个资本家，感觉棒极了。",[14,1790,1791],{},"现在让我们回溯到我买入之前的两个77年。这把我们带回了1788年，乔治·华盛顿 (George Washington) 就任我们第一任总统的前一年。那时的人们有谁能想到，他们的新国家仅仅在三个77年的时间里会取得怎样的成就？",[14,1793,1794],{},"在1942年之前的两个77年里，美国从一个400万人口的国家——约占世界人口的0.5%——成长为地球上最强大的国家。然而在1942年的春天，美国面临一场危机：美国及其盟友在三个月前刚刚卷入的一场战争中接连失利。坏消息每天传来。",[14,1796,1797],{},"尽管头条新闻令人心惊，但在那个3月11日，几乎所有美国人都相信战争终将获胜。他们的乐观也不仅限于这场胜利。撇开天生的悲观主义者不谈，美国人相信自己的孩子和后代将过上远比自己好得多的生活。",[14,1799,1800],{},"当然，这个国家的公民也明白，前方的路不会一帆风顺。从来都不是。建国初期，我们的国家经受了一场内战的考验，那场战争夺走了4%美国男性的生命，让林肯总统 (Abraham Lincoln) 公开思考”一个如此理想、如此奉献的国家能否长久存续”。1930年代，美国经历了大萧条——一段大规模失业的惨痛时期。",[14,1802,1803],{},"然而在1942年，当我买入股票时，这个国家对战后的增长充满期待，而这一信念被证明是完全有根据的。事实上，这个国家的成就只能用”令人叹为观止”来形容。",[14,1805,1806,1807,1810,1811,1814],{},"让我用数字来说明：如果我当年的114.75美元投入了一只零费用的标普500指数基金，并且所有股息都进行再投资，到2019年1月31日（本信付印前最新可用数据），我的持仓市值将增长到税前606,811美元。相当于每1美元赚了",[836,1808,1809],{},"5288美元","。同时，当年一家免税机构——比如养老基金或大学捐赠基金——投入的100万美元，将增长到大约53",[836,1812,1813],{},"亿","美元。",[14,1816,1817,1818,1825],{},"让我再补充一个我相信会让你们震惊的计算：如果这家假想的机构每年仅把资产的",[836,1819,1820,1821,1824],{},"1%",[836,1822,1823],{},"付给投资经理和顾问等各种”帮手”，那么它的最终收益将","减少一半","，只有26.5亿美元。这就是77年间，标普500指数实际上实现的11.8%年回报率被降低到10.8%后所发生的事。",[14,1827,1828],{},"那些经常鼓吹政府预算赤字必将带来厄运的人（就像我自己多年来经常做的那样）或许应该注意到，在我人生的这最后一个77年里，我们国家的国债增长了大约400倍。那可是40,000%！假设你预见到了这种增长，并对失控的赤字和货币贬值的前景恐慌不已。为了”保护”自己，你可能会避开股票，转而选择用114.75美元买入3.25盎司黄金。",[14,1830,1831,1832,1835,1836,1838],{},"那么这种所谓的保护会带来什么呢？你现在拥有的资产价值约为4200美元，",[836,1833,1834],{},"不到","简单投资于美国企业所能实现收益的",[836,1837,1820],{},"。神奇的金属（gold）比不上美国人的勇气（mettle）。",[14,1840,1841],{},"我们国家这种几乎难以置信的繁荣，是在两党合作的基础上取得的。自1942年以来，我们有过7位共和党总统和7位民主党总统。在他们的任期内，这个国家先后经历了长期的恶性通胀、21%的最优贷款利率、几场有争议且代价高昂的战争、一位总统辞职、房价全面崩溃、瘫痪全社会的金融恐慌，以及一大堆其他问题。所有这些都产生了骇人的头条新闻；但现在统统成了历史。",[14,1843,1844],{},"圣保罗大教堂的建筑师克里斯托弗·雷恩 (Christopher Wren) 就葬在这座伦敦教堂中。他的墓旁刻着这样一段话（译自拉丁文）：“如果你想寻找我的纪念碑，就看看你的周围。”那些对美国经济前景持怀疑态度的人，应该好好琢磨这句话。",[14,1846,1847,1848,1851,1852,1855],{},"回到我们的起点1788年——那时的美国其实什么都没有，",[836,1849,1850],{},"只有","一小群心怀壮志的人和一个旨在将他们的梦想变为现实的、刚刚萌芽的治理框架。而今天，美联储估计我们的家庭财富达到108",[836,1853,1854],{},"万亿","美元，这个数字大到几乎无法想象。",[14,1857,1858],{},"还记得我在这封信前面说过的吗？留存收益是伯克希尔繁荣的关键。美国也一样。在国家的账本上，对应的项目叫做”储蓄”。我们确实一直在储蓄。如果我们的先辈把他们生产的一切都消费掉了，就不会有投资，不会有生产率提升，也不会有生活水平的飞跃。",[864,1860],{},[14,1862,1863],{},"查理和我欣然承认，伯克希尔的成功在很大程度上不过是我所说的*“美国顺风”*的产物。美国企业或个人要是吹嘘自己”全靠自己干出来的”，那就不只是傲慢了。诺曼底海滩上那些整齐排列的朴素白色十字架，应该让发出这种论调的人感到羞愧。",[14,1865,1866,1867,1869],{},"世界上还有许多其他国家拥有光明的未来。对此我们应该欢欣：如果",[836,1868,1135],{},"国家都繁荣，美国人将更加富裕、更加安全。在伯克希尔，我们也希望进行大量的海外投资。",[14,1871,1872],{},"然而，在未来的77年里，我们收益的主要来源几乎确定将来自”美国顺风”。我们很幸运——无比幸运——有这股力量在我们身后。",[825,1874,1875],{"id":1875},"年度股东大会",[14,1877,1878],{},"伯克希尔2019年年度股东大会将于5月4日周六举行。如果你考虑参加——查理和我期待你们的到来——请查阅A-2至A-3页的详情。日程安排与我们多年来惯例相同。",[14,1880,1881],{},"如果你无法亲临奥马哈，可以通过雅虎 (Yahoo) 的网络直播参与。安迪·瑟沃 (Andy Serwer) 和他的雅虎团队表现出色，他们不仅全程报道整个大会，还会采访众多伯克希尔经理人、名人、金融专家以及来自美国和海外的股东。自从雅虎加入以来，全世界对每年五月第一个周六在奥马哈所发生的事情的了解程度大大提高。直播于中部时间上午8:45开始，并提供中文翻译。",[864,1883],{},[14,1885,1886],{},"54年来，查理和我一直热爱我们的工作。每一天，我们都在做自己觉得有趣的事，与我们喜欢和信任的人一起共事。而现在，我们新的管理架构让我们的生活更加愉快了。",[14,1888,1889],{},"整个团队齐心协力——阿吉特和格雷格管理运营，旗下一大批优秀的企业，现金如尼亚加拉瀑布般涌入，一群才华横溢的经理人，以及坚如磐石的企业文化——无论未来如何，你们的公司都准备好了。",[14,1891,1892],{},"2019年2月23日",[14,1894,1895],{},"沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren E. Buffett)",[14,1897,1898],{},"董事会主席",{"title":1900,"searchDepth":1901,"depth":1901,"links":1902},"",2,[1903,1905,1906,1907,1908,1909,1910,1911,1912],{"id":827,"depth":1904,"text":828},3,{"id":897,"depth":1904,"text":898},{"id":1145,"depth":1904,"text":1145},{"id":1194,"depth":1904,"text":1195},{"id":1245,"depth":1904,"text":1246},{"id":1417,"depth":1904,"text":1418},{"id":1455,"depth":1904,"text":1455},{"id":1785,"depth":1904,"text":1785},{"id":1875,"depth":1904,"text":1875},"致股东信",null,"2018年巴菲特致股东信，讨论苹果投资、股票回购、继任计划及公司内在价值","md",{},true,91,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1915},"2018 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","mmnikrdp1aUeiuf_nFSczZKMMyligHYdVFS9ftdhGbI","buffett",[1928,1933,1937,1941,1944,1947,1950,1953,1956,1959,1963,1966,1969,1973,1976,1979,1983,1986,1989,1993,1996,1999,2003,2006,2009,2013,2016,2019,2023,2026,2029,2033,2036,2039,2043,2046,2049,2053,2056,2059,2063,2066,2069,2073,2076,2079,2083,2086,2089,2093,2096,2099,2103,2106,2109,2113,2116,2119,2123,2126,2129,2133,2136,2139,2143,2146,2149,2153,2156,2159,2163,2166,2169,2173,2176,2179,2183,2186,2189,2193,2196,2199,2203,2206,2209,2213,2216,2219,2223,2226,2229,2233,2236,2239,2243,2246,2249,2253,2256,2259,2263,2266,2270,2273,2277,2280,2284,2287,2291,2294,2298,2301,2305,2308,2312,2315,2319,2322,2326,2329,2333,2336,2340,2343,2347,2350,2354,2357,2361,2364,2368,2371,2375,2378,2382,2385,2389,2392,2396,2399,2403,2406,2410,2413,2417,2420,2424,2427,2431,2434,2438,2441,2445,2448,2452,2455,2459,2462,2466,2469,2473,2476,2480,2483,2487,2490,2494,2497,2501,2504,2508,2511,2515,2518,2522,2525,2529,2532,2536,2539,2543,2546,2550,2553,2557,2560,2564,2567,2571,2574,2578,2581,2585,2588,2592,2595,2599,2602,2606,2609,2613,2616,2620,2623,2627,2630,2634,2637,2641,2644,2648,2651,2655,2658,2659,2662,2666,2669,2673,2676,2680,2683,2687,2690,2694,2697,2701,2704,2708,2711,2715,2718,2722,2725,2729,2733,2737,2741,2745,2749,2753,2757,2761,2765,2769,2773,2777,2781,2785,2789,2793,2797,2801,2805,2809,2813,2817,2821,2825,2829,2833,2837,2841,2845,2849,2853,2857,2861,2865,2869,2873,2877,2881,2885,2889,2893,2897,2901,2905,2909,2913,2917,2921,2925],{"title":1929,"slug":1930,"category":1931,"order":1932},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":1934,"slug":1935,"category":1936,"order":1932},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1938,"slug":1939,"category":1940,"order":1932},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1942,"slug":1943,"category":1931,"order":1901},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1945,"slug":1946,"category":1936,"order":1901},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1948,"slug":1949,"category":1940,"order":1901},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1951,"slug":1952,"category":1931,"order":1904},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1954,"slug":1955,"category":1936,"order":1904},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1957,"slug":1958,"category":1940,"order":1904},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1960,"slug":1961,"category":1931,"order":1962},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1964,"slug":1965,"category":1936,"order":1962},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1967,"slug":1968,"category":1940,"order":1962},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1970,"slug":1971,"category":1931,"order":1972},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1974,"slug":1975,"category":1936,"order":1972},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1977,"slug":1978,"category":1940,"order":1972},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1980,"slug":1981,"category":1931,"order":1982},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1984,"slug":1985,"category":1936,"order":1982},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1987,"slug":1988,"category":1940,"order":1982},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1990,"slug":1991,"category":1931,"order":1992},"1961年中 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巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2327,"slug":2328,"category":1936,"order":2325},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2330,"slug":2331,"category":1913,"order":2332},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2334,"slug":2335,"category":1936,"order":2332},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2337,"slug":2338,"category":1913,"order":2339},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2341,"slug":2342,"category":1936,"order":2339},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2344,"slug":2345,"category":1913,"order":2346},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2348,"slug":2349,"category":1936,"order":2346},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2351,"slug":2352,"category":1913,"order":2353},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2355,"slug":2356,"category":1936,"order":2353},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2358,"slug":2359,"category":1913,"order":2360},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2362,"slug":2363,"category":1936,"order":2360},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2365,"slug":2366,"category":1913,"order":2367},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2369,"slug":2370,"category":1936,"order":2367},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2372,"slug":2373,"category":1913,"order":2374},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2376,"slug":2377,"category":1936,"order":2374},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2379,"slug":2380,"category":1913,"order":2381},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2383,"slug":2384,"category":1936,"order":2381},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2386,"slug":2387,"category":1913,"order":2388},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2390,"slug":2391,"category":1936,"order":2388},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2393,"slug":2394,"category":1913,"order":2395},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2397,"slug":2398,"category":1936,"order":2395},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2400,"slug":2401,"category":1913,"order":2402},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2404,"slug":2405,"category":1936,"order":2402},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2407,"slug":2408,"category":1913,"order":2409},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2411,"slug":2412,"category":1936,"order":2409},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2414,"slug":2415,"category":1913,"order":2416},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2418,"slug":2419,"category":1936,"order":2416},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2421,"slug":2422,"category":1913,"order":2423},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2425,"slug":2426,"category":1936,"order":2423},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2428,"slug":2429,"category":1913,"order":2430},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2432,"slug":2433,"category":1936,"order":2430},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2435,"slug":2436,"category":1913,"order":2437},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2439,"slug":2440,"category":1936,"order":2437},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2442,"slug":2443,"category":1913,"order":2444},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2446,"slug":2447,"category":1936,"order":2444},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2449,"slug":2450,"category":1913,"order":2451},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2453,"slug":2454,"category":1936,"order":2451},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2456,"slug":2457,"category":1913,"order":2458},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2460,"slug":2461,"category":1936,"order":2458},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2463,"slug":2464,"category":1913,"order":2465},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2467,"slug":2468,"category":1936,"order":2465},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2470,"slug":2471,"category":1913,"order":2472},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2474,"slug":2475,"category":1936,"order":2472},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2477,"slug":2478,"category":1913,"order":2479},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2481,"slug":2482,"category":1936,"order":2479},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2484,"slug":2485,"category":1913,"order":2486},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2488,"slug":2489,"category":1936,"order":2486},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2491,"slug":2492,"category":1913,"order":2493},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2495,"slug":2496,"category":1936,"order":2493},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2498,"slug":2499,"category":1913,"order":2500},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2502,"slug":2503,"category":1936,"order":2500},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2505,"slug":2506,"category":1913,"order":2507},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2509,"slug":2510,"category":1936,"order":2507},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2512,"slug":2513,"category":1913,"order":2514},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2516,"slug":2517,"category":1936,"order":2514},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2519,"slug":2520,"category":1913,"order":2521},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2523,"slug":2524,"category":1936,"order":2521},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2526,"slug":2527,"category":1913,"order":2528},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2530,"slug":2531,"category":1936,"order":2528},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2533,"slug":2534,"category":1913,"order":2535},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2537,"slug":2538,"category":1936,"order":2535},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2540,"slug":2541,"category":1913,"order":2542},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2544,"slug":2545,"category":1936,"order":2542},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2547,"slug":2548,"category":1913,"order":2549},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2551,"slug":2552,"category":1936,"order":2549},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2554,"slug":2555,"category":1913,"order":2556},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2558,"slug":2559,"category":1936,"order":2556},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2561,"slug":2562,"category":1913,"order":2563},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2565,"slug":2566,"category":1936,"order":2563},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2568,"slug":2569,"category":1913,"order":2570},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2572,"slug":2573,"category":1936,"order":2570},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2575,"slug":2576,"category":1913,"order":2577},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2579,"slug":2580,"category":1936,"order":2577},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2582,"slug":2583,"category":1913,"order":2584},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2586,"slug":2587,"category":1936,"order":2584},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2589,"slug":2590,"category":1913,"order":2591},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2593,"slug":2594,"category":1936,"order":2591},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2596,"slug":2597,"category":1913,"order":2598},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2600,"slug":2601,"category":1936,"order":2598},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2603,"slug":2604,"category":1913,"order":2605},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2607,"slug":2608,"category":1936,"order":2605},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2610,"slug":2611,"category":1913,"order":2612},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2614,"slug":2615,"category":1936,"order":2612},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2617,"slug":2618,"category":1913,"order":2619},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2621,"slug":2622,"category":1936,"order":2619},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2624,"slug":2625,"category":1913,"order":2626},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2628,"slug":2629,"category":1936,"order":2626},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2631,"slug":2632,"category":1913,"order":2633},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2635,"slug":2636,"category":1936,"order":2633},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2638,"slug":2639,"category":1913,"order":2640},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2642,"slug":2643,"category":1936,"order":2640},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2645,"slug":2646,"category":1913,"order":2647},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2649,"slug":2650,"category":1936,"order":2647},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2652,"slug":2653,"category":1913,"order":2654},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2656,"slug":2657,"category":1936,"order":2654},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":5,"slug":1923,"category":1913,"order":1919},{"title":2660,"slug":2661,"category":1936,"order":1919},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":2663,"slug":2664,"category":1913,"order":2665},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":2667,"slug":2668,"category":1936,"order":2665},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2670,"slug":2671,"category":1913,"order":2672},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":2674,"slug":2675,"category":1936,"order":2672},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":2677,"slug":2678,"category":1913,"order":2679},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":2681,"slug":2682,"category":1936,"order":2679},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2684,"slug":2685,"category":1913,"order":2686},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":2688,"slug":2689,"category":1936,"order":2686},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":2691,"slug":2692,"category":1913,"order":2693},"2023 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