[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3826},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":2290,"library-sidebar-dao":3292,"library-sidebar-models":3594},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":2276,"date":2277,"description":2278,"extension":2279,"meta":2280,"navigation":2281,"order":2282,"path":2283,"seo":2284,"seoDescription":2278,"seoTitle":2285,"slug":2286,"stem":2287,"__hash__":2288,"_collection":2289},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2017 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":2266},"minimark",[9,13,20,796,810,813,818,821,824,827,835,838,845,852,859,862,865,868,871,875,878,885,888,891,894,897,900,903,905,908,911,914,916,919,926,929,932,937,940,945,948,951,954,959,962,969,972,975,978,981,984,987,994,997,1072,1075,1078,1089,1091,1094,1101,1104,1111,1114,1121,1124,1131,1134,1137,1139,1142,1149,1152,1155,1158,1161,1164,1167,1170,1173,1176,1482,1487,1490,1497,1499,1506,1509,1519,1525,1528,1530,1533,1609,1612,1623,1630,1648,1652,1655,1658,1665,1671,1674,1677,1680,1695,1698,1987,1990,1997,2000,2003,2005,2012,2015,2018,2032,2043,2050,2053,2056,2063,2065,2068,2075,2086,2093,2095,2098,2101,2104,2107,2110,2120,2123,2126,2129,2136,2139,2142,2145,2156,2159,2162,2165,2168,2171,2174,2177,2180,2187,2204,2207,2214,2217,2220,2223,2226,2229,2231,2234,2240,2243,2246,2248,2251,2254,2257,2260,2263],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2017-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[21,22,23,42],"table",{},[24,25,26],"thead",{},[27,28,29,33,36,39],"tr",{},[30,31,32],"th",{},"年份",[30,34,35],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比",[30,37,38],{},"伯克希尔每股市值年度变动百分比",[30,40,41],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比",[43,44,45,60,74,88,101,115,129,143,157,171,185,199,213,227,241,255,269,283,297,310,324,338,352,366,379,393,407,421,434,448,462,476,489,503,517,531,545,558,571,584,598,611,624,635,649,663,676,689,703,716,730,743,756,768,782],"tbody",{},[27,46,47,51,54,57],{},[48,49,50],"td",{},"1965",[48,52,53],{},"23.8",[48,55,56],{},"49.5",[48,58,59],{},"10.0",[27,61,62,65,68,71],{},[48,63,64],{},"1966",[48,66,67],{},"20.3",[48,69,70],{},"(3.4)",[48,72,73],{},"(11.7)",[27,75,76,79,82,85],{},[48,77,78],{},"1967",[48,80,81],{},"11.0",[48,83,84],{},"13.3",[48,86,87],{},"30.9",[27,89,90,93,96,99],{},[48,91,92],{},"1968",[48,94,95],{},"19.0",[48,97,98],{},"77.8",[48,100,81],{},[27,102,103,106,109,112],{},[48,104,105],{},"1969",[48,107,108],{},"16.2",[48,110,111],{},"19.4",[48,113,114],{},"(8.4)",[27,116,117,120,123,126],{},[48,118,119],{},"1970",[48,121,122],{},"12.0",[48,124,125],{},"(4.6)",[48,127,128],{},"3.9",[27,130,131,134,137,140],{},[48,132,133],{},"1971",[48,135,136],{},"16.4",[48,138,139],{},"80.5",[48,141,142],{},"14.6",[27,144,145,148,151,154],{},[48,146,147],{},"1972",[48,149,150],{},"21.7",[48,152,153],{},"8.1",[48,155,156],{},"18.9",[27,158,159,162,165,168],{},[48,160,161],{},"1973",[48,163,164],{},"4.7",[48,166,167],{},"(2.5)",[48,169,170],{},"(14.8)",[27,172,173,176,179,182],{},[48,174,175],{},"1974",[48,177,178],{},"5.5",[48,180,181],{},"(48.7)",[48,183,184],{},"(26.4)",[27,186,187,190,193,196],{},[48,188,189],{},"1975",[48,191,192],{},"21.9",[48,194,195],{},"2.5",[48,197,198],{},"37.2",[27,200,201,204,207,210],{},[48,202,203],{},"1976",[48,205,206],{},"59.3",[48,208,209],{},"129.3",[48,211,212],{},"23.6",[27,214,215,218,221,224],{},[48,216,217],{},"1977",[48,219,220],{},"31.9",[48,222,223],{},"46.8",[48,225,226],{},"(7.4)",[27,228,229,232,235,238],{},[48,230,231],{},"1978",[48,233,234],{},"24.0",[48,236,237],{},"14.5",[48,239,240],{},"6.4",[27,242,243,246,249,252],{},[48,244,245],{},"1979",[48,247,248],{},"35.7",[48,250,251],{},"102.5",[48,253,254],{},"18.2",[27,256,257,260,263,266],{},[48,258,259],{},"1980",[48,261,262],{},"19.3",[48,264,265],{},"32.8",[48,267,268],{},"32.3",[27,270,271,274,277,280],{},[48,272,273],{},"1981",[48,275,276],{},"31.4",[48,278,279],{},"31.8",[48,281,282],{},"(5.0)",[27,284,285,288,291,294],{},[48,286,287],{},"1982",[48,289,290],{},"40.0",[48,292,293],{},"38.4",[48,295,296],{},"21.4",[27,298,299,302,304,307],{},[48,300,301],{},"1983",[48,303,268],{},[48,305,306],{},"69.0",[48,308,309],{},"22.4",[27,311,312,315,318,321],{},[48,313,314],{},"1984",[48,316,317],{},"13.6",[48,319,320],{},"(2.7)",[48,322,323],{},"6.1",[27,325,326,329,332,335],{},[48,327,328],{},"1985",[48,330,331],{},"48.2",[48,333,334],{},"93.7",[48,336,337],{},"31.6",[27,339,340,343,346,349],{},[48,341,342],{},"1986",[48,344,345],{},"26.1",[48,347,348],{},"14.2",[48,350,351],{},"18.6",[27,353,354,357,360,363],{},[48,355,356],{},"1987",[48,358,359],{},"19.5",[48,361,362],{},"4.6",[48,364,365],{},"5.1",[27,367,368,371,374,376],{},[48,369,370],{},"1988",[48,372,373],{},"20.1",[48,375,206],{},[48,377,378],{},"16.6",[27,380,381,384,387,390],{},[48,382,383],{},"1989",[48,385,386],{},"44.4",[48,388,389],{},"84.6",[48,391,392],{},"31.7",[27,394,395,398,401,404],{},[48,396,397],{},"1990",[48,399,400],{},"7.4",[48,402,403],{},"(23.1)",[48,405,406],{},"(3.1)",[27,408,409,412,415,418],{},[48,410,411],{},"1991",[48,413,414],{},"39.6",[48,416,417],{},"35.6",[48,419,420],{},"30.5",[27,422,423,426,428,431],{},[48,424,425],{},"1992",[48,427,67],{},[48,429,430],{},"29.8",[48,432,433],{},"7.6",[27,435,436,439,442,445],{},[48,437,438],{},"1993",[48,440,441],{},"14.3",[48,443,444],{},"38.9",[48,446,447],{},"10.1",[27,449,450,453,456,459],{},[48,451,452],{},"1994",[48,454,455],{},"13.9",[48,457,458],{},"25.0",[48,460,461],{},"1.3",[27,463,464,467,470,473],{},[48,465,466],{},"1995",[48,468,469],{},"43.1",[48,471,472],{},"57.4",[48,474,475],{},"37.6",[27,477,478,481,483,486],{},[48,479,480],{},"1996",[48,482,279],{},[48,484,485],{},"6.2",[48,487,488],{},"23.0",[27,490,491,494,497,500],{},[48,492,493],{},"1997",[48,495,496],{},"34.1",[48,498,499],{},"34.9",[48,501,502],{},"33.4",[27,504,505,508,511,514],{},[48,506,507],{},"1998",[48,509,510],{},"48.3",[48,512,513],{},"52.2",[48,515,516],{},"28.6",[27,518,519,522,525,528],{},[48,520,521],{},"1999",[48,523,524],{},"0.5",[48,526,527],{},"(19.9)",[48,529,530],{},"21.0",[27,532,533,536,539,542],{},[48,534,535],{},"2000",[48,537,538],{},"6.5",[48,540,541],{},"26.6",[48,543,544],{},"(9.1)",[27,546,547,550,553,555],{},[48,548,549],{},"2001",[48,551,552],{},"(6.2)",[48,554,538],{},[48,556,557],{},"(11.9)",[27,559,560,563,565,568],{},[48,561,562],{},"2002",[48,564,59],{},[48,566,567],{},"(3.8)",[48,569,570],{},"(22.1)",[27,572,573,576,578,581],{},[48,574,575],{},"2003",[48,577,530],{},[48,579,580],{},"15.8",[48,582,583],{},"28.7",[27,585,586,589,592,595],{},[48,587,588],{},"2004",[48,590,591],{},"10.5",[48,593,594],{},"4.3",[48,596,597],{},"10.9",[27,599,600,603,605,608],{},[48,601,602],{},"2005",[48,604,240],{},[48,606,607],{},"0.8",[48,609,610],{},"4.9",[27,612,613,616,619,622],{},[48,614,615],{},"2006",[48,617,618],{},"18.4",[48,620,621],{},"24.1",[48,623,580],{},[27,625,626,629,631,633],{},[48,627,628],{},"2007",[48,630,81],{},[48,632,583],{},[48,634,178],{},[27,636,637,640,643,646],{},[48,638,639],{},"2008",[48,641,642],{},"(9.6)",[48,644,645],{},"(31.8)",[48,647,648],{},"(37.0)",[27,650,651,654,657,660],{},[48,652,653],{},"2009",[48,655,656],{},"19.8",[48,658,659],{},"2.7",[48,661,662],{},"26.5",[27,664,665,668,671,673],{},[48,666,667],{},"2010",[48,669,670],{},"13.0",[48,672,296],{},[48,674,675],{},"15.1",[27,677,678,681,683,686],{},[48,679,680],{},"2011",[48,682,362],{},[48,684,685],{},"(4.7)",[48,687,688],{},"2.1",[27,690,691,694,697,700],{},[48,692,693],{},"2012",[48,695,696],{},"14.4",[48,698,699],{},"16.8",[48,701,702],{},"16.0",[27,704,705,708,710,713],{},[48,706,707],{},"2013",[48,709,254],{},[48,711,712],{},"32.7",[48,714,715],{},"32.4",[27,717,718,721,724,727],{},[48,719,720],{},"2014",[48,722,723],{},"8.3",[48,725,726],{},"27.0",[48,728,729],{},"13.7",[27,731,732,735,737,740],{},[48,733,734],{},"2015",[48,736,240],{},[48,738,739],{},"(12.5)",[48,741,742],{},"1.4",[27,744,745,748,751,754],{},[48,746,747],{},"2016",[48,749,750],{},"10.7",[48,752,753],{},"23.4",[48,755,122],{},[27,757,758,761,763,765],{},[48,759,760],{},"2017",[48,762,488],{},[48,764,192],{},[48,766,767],{},"21.8",[27,769,770,773,776,779],{},[48,771,772],{},"年复合增长率——1965至2017年",[48,774,775],{},"19.1%",[48,777,778],{},"20.9%",[48,780,781],{},"9.9%",[27,783,784,787,790,793],{},[48,785,786],{},"累计总收益——1964至2017年",[48,788,789],{},"1,088,029%",[48,791,792],{},"2,404,748%",[48,794,795],{},"15,508%",[14,797,798,801,802,805,806,809],{},[17,799,800],{},"注："," 数据按日历年度统计，以下年份除外：1965年和1966年为截至9月30日的会计年度；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市值计价其持有的股票投资，此前的规定是按成本与市价孰低法入账。本表中，1978年及之前伯克希尔的业绩数据已按新规则进行了重述。其他方面的数据均采用最初报告的数字。标普500指数的数据为",[17,803,804],{},"税前","收益，而伯克希尔的数据为",[17,807,808],{},"税后","收益。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司只是简单地持有标普500指数并计提相应的税款，那么在指数取得正收益的年份，公司的业绩将落后于指数；而在指数收益为负的年份，公司的业绩则将超越指数。长年累月下来，税收成本会造成相当大的累计落后幅度。",[811,812],"hr",{},[14,814,815],{},[17,816,817],{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,819,820],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) 所有股东：",[14,822,823],{},"2017年伯克希尔的净资产增加了653亿美元，A\u002FB股每股账面价值增长了23%。自现任管理层接手的53年以来，每股账面价值已从19美元增至211,750美元，年复合增长率约为19.1%。(*)",[14,825,826],{},"(*): 本报告中所有的每股数据均指伯克希尔A类股。B类股的数据为A类股的1\u002F1500。",[14,828,829,830,834],{},"这样的开头段落格式已经是30年来的惯例了。但2017年绝非寻常的一年：我们的收益中有很大一部分，并",[831,832,833],"em",{},"不是","伯克希尔自身经营取得的。",[14,836,837],{},"这653亿美元的收益是实实在在的——这一点大可放心。但其中只有360亿美元来自伯克希尔的运营。其余的290亿美元是去年12月国会改写美国税法时送给我们的。（伯克希尔税改收益的详细信息请参见年报K-32页和K-89至K-90页。）",[14,839,840,841,844],{},"在陈述完这些财务事实之后，我本来想立刻转入讨论伯克希尔的经营情况。但我不得不再插一段话，先给大家介绍一项新的通用会计准则（GAAP）变更——这项变更在",[831,842,843],{},"未来","的季报和年报中，将严重扭曲伯克希尔的净收益数字，并且常常会误导评论员和投资者。",[14,846,847,848,851],{},"新准则规定，我们持有的股票的",[831,849,850],{},"未实现","投资损益的净变动额，必须全部纳入到我们向各位报告的净收益数字中。这一要求将导致我们GAAP报表上的净利润出现真正剧烈且难以预测的波动。伯克希尔持有1,700亿美元的有价证券（不含卡夫亨氏 (Kraft Heinz) 的持股），这些持股的市值在一个季度内很容易波动100亿美元甚至更多。把如此巨大的波动纳入报告净利润，会完全淹没那些真正重要的经营业绩数字。出于分析目的，伯克希尔的”净利润”将变得毫无意义。",[14,853,854,855,858],{},"新准则还加剧了一个我们长期面临的沟通难题：会计准则一直要求我们将",[831,856,857],{},"已实现","的投资损益计入净收益。在过去的季报和年报新闻稿中，我们一再提醒大家不要过度关注这些已实现损益，因为它们——和未实现损益一样——都是随机波动的。",[14,860,861],{},"这在很大程度上是因为，我们卖出证券是基于理性判断，而不是试图以任何方式操控当期利润。因此，在投资组合整体表现不佳的时期，我们有时反而报告了大额的已实现投资收益（反过来也是一样）。",[14,863,864],{},"新准则将未实现损益也纳入了进来，使得现有准则中已实现损益造成的失真更加严重。因此，我们将在每个季度不厌其烦地向大家解释，你们需要做哪些调整才能理解报告数字的真正含义。但电视上对业绩的评论往往是在数据公布的同时就脱口而出，报纸标题几乎只关注GAAP净利润的同比变化。因此，媒体报道有时会放大那些毫无必要地引发读者恐慌或亢奋的数字。",[14,866,867],{},"为了缓解这一问题，我们将继续坚持在周五收盘后或周六清晨发布财务报告，给各位留出尽可能多的分析时间，也让投资专业人士有机会在周一开盘前发表深入的解读。尽管如此，对于那些视会计为天书的股东来说，我预计困惑仍然在所难免。",[14,869,870],{},"在伯克希尔，真正重要的是我们经常性每股盈利能力的提升。这才是我和我的长期合伙人查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 一直关注的指标——我希望你们也是。以下是我们2017年的成绩单。",[872,873,874],"h3",{"id":874},"并购",[14,876,877],{},"为伯克希尔增加价值有四大基石：（1）大规模的独立收购；（2）与我们现有业务契合的补强收购；（3）旗下众多业务内部的销售增长和利润率提升；（4）我们庞大的股票和债券投资组合产生的投资收益。本节我们来回顾2017年的并购活动。",[14,879,880,881,884],{},"在物色新的独立业务时，我们寻找的关键品质包括：持久的竞争优势；有能力且品格高尚的管理层；运营所需净有形资产的良好回报率；以诱人的回报率实现内部增长的机会；以及最后——",[831,882,883],{},"合理的收购价格","。",[14,886,887],{},"事实证明，最后一项要求几乎挡住了我们2017年审视过的所有交易。那些品质不错但远谈不上惊艳的企业，收购价格已经创下历史新高。事实上，对于那支乐观进取的收购大军来说，价格似乎已经无关紧要了。",[14,889,890],{},"为什么会出现这种收购狂潮？部分原因在于，CEO这个职位本身就自带筛选功能，只有”敢闯敢干”型的人才能坐上这个位子。如果华尔街分析师或董事会成员敦促这类CEO考虑收购机会，那就好比告诉一个正在发育的青少年一定要拥有正常的性生活。",[14,892,893],{},"一旦CEO对交易饥渴起来，他或她就永远不会缺少能为收购正名的预测报告。下属们会欢呼雀跃，因为他们憧憬着更大的管辖范围和通常随公司规模扩大而水涨船高的薪酬水平。嗅到巨额服务费的投资银行家也会拍手叫好。（永远不要问理发师你是否需要理发。）如果收购对象的历史业绩不足以证明收购的合理性，那么巨大的”协同效应”就会被预测出来。电子表格从来不会让人失望。",[14,895,896],{},"2017年大量极其廉价的债务资金进一步推波助澜。毕竟，即便是高价收购，只要用债务融资，通常也能提高每股收益。相比之下，在伯克希尔，我们以全股权为基础来评估每一笔收购，因为我们对整体负债水平的偏好非常低，而且把大量债务强加给任何单个业务通常都是错误的做法（某些特殊情况除外，比如克莱顿 (Clayton) 的贷款组合所对应的债务，或者我们受监管公用事业业务中的固定资产负债）。同时，我们从来不指望、也很少发现什么”协同效应”。",[14,898,899],{},"多年来，我们对杠杆的厌恶确实拖累了回报率。但查理和我睡得很踏实。我们都认为，为了得到你并不需要的东西，而拿你已经拥有和真正需要的东西去冒险，那简直是疯了。50年前，当我们各自经营着由几位信任我们的亲朋好友出资组建的投资合伙企业时，我们就持有这样的理念。如今，伯克希尔已经拥有了上百万”合伙人”，我们的理念一如当初。",[14,901,902],{},"尽管近期遭遇了”并购荒”，但查理和我相信，伯克希尔不时仍会有机会进行非常大规模的收购。与此同时，我们将坚守一条简单的准则：别人的交易越是轻率鲁莽，我们自己就越要谨慎自律。",[811,904],{},[14,906,907],{},"去年我们还是完成了一笔明智的独立收购——收购了飞行员旅行中心 (Pilot Flying J，简称”PFJ”) 38.6%的合伙权益。这家公司年销售额约200亿美元，是全美遥遥领先的卡车旅行中心运营商。",[14,909,910],{},"PFJ从创立之初就由了不起的哈斯拉姆家族 (Haslam) 经营。60年前，“老吉姆”·哈斯拉姆 (Big Jim Haslam) 靠着一个加油站和一腔梦想起步。如今他的儿子吉米 (Jimmy) 管理着遍布北美约750个网点的2.7万名员工。伯克希尔已与哈斯拉姆家族达成合同协议，将在2023年把PFJ的合伙权益提高到80%；届时哈斯拉姆家族将持有剩余的20%。伯克希尔非常高兴能成为他们的合伙人。",[14,912,913],{},"当你开车上州际公路时，欢迎顺道来看看。PFJ既卖汽油也卖柴油，食物也很不错。如果跑了一整天的长途，别忘了我们的网点还有5,200个淋浴设施。",[811,915],{},[14,917,918],{},"现在说说补强收购。其中一些是小交易，我就不详述了。但以下是几笔规模较大的收购，从2016年底到2018年初陆续完成。",[920,921,922],"ul",{},[923,924,925],"li",{},"克莱顿之家 (Clayton Homes) 在2017年收购了两家传统住宅建筑商，使我们在三年前才进入的这一领域的业务规模翻了一番还多。加上新增的科罗拉多州的橡木之家 (Oakwood Homes) 和伯明翰的哈里斯·多伊尔 (Harris Doyle)，我预计2018年我们的现场建造业务收入将超过10亿美元。",[14,927,928],{},"尽管如此，克莱顿的业务重心依然是预制装配式住宅——包括制造和融资两个环节。2017年，克莱顿通过自有零售渠道售出了19,168幢住宅，另外向独立零售商批发了26,706幢。总的来看，克莱顿去年占据了预制住宅市场49%的份额。这一行业领先地位——大约是最接近的竞争对手的三倍——与2003年克莱顿刚加入伯克希尔时13%的市场份额不可同日而语。",[14,930,931],{},"克莱顿之家和PFJ都位于诺克斯维尔 (Knoxville)，克莱顿家族和哈斯拉姆家族在当地是多年的老朋友。凯文·克莱顿 (Kevin Clayton) 向哈斯拉姆家族介绍了加入伯克希尔的种种好处，也向我大力推荐了哈斯拉姆家族的优秀品质，这些都帮助促成了PFJ的交易。",[920,933,934],{},[923,935,936],{},"2016年底，我们的地面材料业务子公司肖氏工业 (Shaw Industries) 收购了美国地板公司 (U.S. Floors，简称”USF”)，一家快速增长的高端乙烯基地砖经销商。USF的两位经理皮特·多舍 (Piet Dossche) 和菲利普·埃拉穆兹佩 (Philippe Erramuzpe) 起步迅猛，2017年销售额增长了40%，在此期间他们的业务也被完美整合进了肖氏体系。显然，收购USF不仅让我们获得了出色的商业资产，还获得了出色的人才资产。",[14,938,939],{},"肖氏的CEO万斯·贝尔 (Vance Bell) 发起、谈判并完成了这笔收购，使得肖氏2017年的销售额达到57亿美元，员工人数增至2.2万人。凭借对USF的收购，肖氏大大巩固了其作为伯克希尔一个重要而持久的盈利来源的地位。",[920,941,942],{},[923,943,944],{},"我已经多次跟你们聊过家庭服务公司 (HomeServices)——我们不断壮大的房地产经纪业务。伯克希尔是在2000年收购中美能源 (MidAmerican Energy，现更名为伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源 (Berkshire Hathaway Energy)) 多数股权时误打误撞获得这块业务的。当时中美能源的主业在电力公用事业领域，我起初对家庭服务公司没怎么关注。",[14,946,947],{},"但这家公司年复一年不断增加经纪人，到2016年底，家庭服务公司已经是全美第二大经纪机构——尽管仍远远落后于行业龙头瑞欧吉 (Realogy)。然而2017年，家庭服务公司实现了爆发式增长。我们收购了行业第三大的朗和福斯特 (Long and Foster)、排名第十二的霍里汉·劳伦斯 (Houlihan Lawrence) 以及格洛丽亚·尼尔森 (Gloria Nilson)。",[14,949,950],{},"通过这些收购，我们新增了12,300名经纪人，使总人数达到40,950人。2017年，家庭服务公司参与了（含上述三家收购按全年计算）1,270亿美元的”双边”交易，在住宅销售额上已经接近全美领先地位。这里需要解释一下这个术语：每笔交易都有”双边”——如果我们既代表买方也代表卖方，那么交易金额会被计算两次。",[14,952,953],{},"尽管进行了这些收购，家庭服务公司2018年预计只占全美房屋经纪业务约3%的份额。也就是说，还有97%的市场等着我们去开拓。只要价格合理，我们将继续在这个最根本的业务中扩充经纪人队伍。",[920,955,956],{},[923,957,958],{},"最后是精密铸件公司 (Precision Castparts)——一家本身就是通过收购壮大起来的企业——收购了德国的威廉·舒尔茨公司 (Wilhelm Schulz GmbH)，一家耐腐蚀管件、管道系统和零部件制造商。请允许我跳过进一步的解释。我对制造业务的了解，远不如我对房地产经纪、住宅建造或卡车旅行中心那么透彻。",[14,960,961],{},"幸运的是，在这件事上我并不需要拿出什么专业知识：精密铸件公司的CEO马克·多尼根 (Mark Donegan) 是一位卓越的制造业管理人才，任何在他管辖范围内的业务注定会表现出色。有时候，把赌注押在人身上，比押在实物资产上更靠谱。",[14,963,964,965,968],{},"现在我们来谈谈经营业务，先从财产意外险（“P\u002FC”）开始。这是一项我",[831,966,967],{},"确实","了解的业务，也是过去51年来驱动伯克希尔增长的引擎。",[872,970,971],{"id":971},"保险业务",[14,973,974],{},"在讨论2017年的保险业绩之前，让我先带各位回顾一下我们是如何以及为何进入这个行业的。1967年初，我们以860万美元收购了国民保险公司 (National Indemnity) 和一家规模较小的姊妹公司。通过这笔收购，我们获得了670万美元的净有形资产，按照保险业务的特性，这些资产可以投入到有价证券中。把这个投资组合重新配置为伯克希尔本来就想持有的证券是轻而易举的事。实质上，我们以”美元换美元”的方式获取了收购成本中净资产的那部分。",[14,976,977],{},"至于伯克希尔支付的超出净资产的190万美元溢价，为我们换来了一个通常能够实现承保盈利的保险业务。更重要的是，保险业务附带了1,940万美元的”浮存金“——这些资金归保户所有，但由我们的两家保险公司暂时持有。",[14,979,980],{},"从那以后，浮存金对伯克希尔一直至关重要。当我们运用这些资金进行投资时，所有的股息、利息和资本利得都归伯克希尔所有。（当然，如果我们遭遇了投资损失，那也得自己兜着。）",[14,982,983],{},"财产意外险的浮存金主要通过以下几种方式产生：（1）保费通常是预先支付给公司的，而损失发生在保单有效期内，通常为六个月或一年；（2）尽管有些损失（比如汽车维修）很快就能理赔，但其他损失——比如石棉暴露造成的伤害——可能需要多年才会浮出水面，评估和理赔则需要更长时间；（3）有些赔付会延续数十年，比如我们工伤赔偿保单中的投保人遭受了永久性伤害，此后需要昂贵的终身护理。",[14,985,986],{},"通常浮存金会随着保费规模的增长而增长。此外，某些财产意外险公司专门经营医疗事故或产品责任等业务——行业术语称之为”长尾”业务——它们产生的浮存金远远超过汽车碰撞和房屋保险，后者要求保险公司几乎立即向索赔人支付维修费用。",[14,988,989,990,993],{},"多年来，伯克希尔一直是长尾业务的领导者。尤其是我们专门从事大型",[831,991,992],{},"再保险","业务，承担其他财产意外险公司已经发生的长尾损失。由于专注于此类业务，伯克希尔的浮存金增长极为可观。以保费收入衡量，我们目前是全美第二大财产意外险公司；而论浮存金规模，则遥遥领先于所有同行。",[14,995,996],{},"以下是历史记录：",[21,998,999,1011],{},[24,1000,1001],{},[27,1002,1003,1005,1008],{},[30,1004,32],{},[30,1006,1007],{},"保费收入（百万美元）",[30,1009,1010],{},"期末浮存金（百万美元）",[43,1012,1013,1022,1032,1042,1052,1062],{},[27,1014,1015,1017,1020],{},[48,1016,119],{},[48,1018,1019],{},"$ 39",[48,1021,1019],{},[27,1023,1024,1026,1029],{},[48,1025,259],{},[48,1027,1028],{},"185",[48,1030,1031],{},"237",[27,1033,1034,1036,1039],{},[48,1035,397],{},[48,1037,1038],{},"582",[48,1040,1041],{},"1,632",[27,1043,1044,1046,1049],{},[48,1045,535],{},[48,1047,1048],{},"19,343",[48,1050,1051],{},"27,871",[27,1053,1054,1056,1059],{},[48,1055,667],{},[48,1057,1058],{},"30,749",[48,1060,1061],{},"65,832",[27,1063,1064,1066,1069],{},[48,1065,760],{},[48,1067,1068],{},"60,597",[48,1070,1071],{},"114,500",[14,1073,1074],{},"我们2017年的保费收入因一笔巨额交易而大幅增加：我们为美国国际集团 (AIG) 最高200亿美元的长尾损失提供再保险，保费收入高达102亿美元，创下了世界纪录——我们不可能再接近这个数字了。因此，2018年的保费收入将有所下降。",[14,1076,1077],{},"至少未来几年内，浮存金可能会继续缓慢增长。当最终出现下滑时，幅度将非常有限——任何一年最多下降3%左右。与银行存款或包含退保选择权的人寿保单不同，财产意外险的浮存金是不能被提取的。这意味着财产意外险公司不会在金融危机时遭遇大规模”挤兑”——这是伯克希尔最看重的特质之一，也是我们纳入投资决策考量的重要因素。",[14,1079,1080,1081,1084,1085,1088],{},"查理和我",[831,1082,1083],{},"永远","不会以一种依赖陌生人善意的方式经营伯克希尔——哪怕是那些自身可能也面临流动性困难的朋友的善意。在2008至2009年金融危机期间，我们庆幸自己持有大量短期国库券——",[831,1086,1087],{},"大量","的国库券——这使我们不必依赖银行信用额度或商业票据等融资渠道。我们是有意识地把伯克希尔打造成了一个能够从容应对各种经济冲击的架构，包括市场长期关闭这样的极端情况。",[811,1090],{},[14,1092,1093],{},"浮存金的不利面在于它伴随着风险，有时甚至是滔天大浪般的风险。保险业中看似可预测的东西可能完全出乎意料。以赫赫有名的劳合社 (Lloyds) 保险市场为例，它在长达三个世纪里业绩不错。但到了1980年代，几条长尾保险业务线暴露出巨大的潜伏问题，一度威胁到其传奇的运营。（我必须补充一句，他们后来已经完全恢复了。）",[14,1095,1096,1097,1100],{},"伯克希尔的保险经理人都是保守谨慎的承保人，他们所处的企业文化长期以来一直将这些品质放在首位。这种自律的行为在大多数年份都实现了承保盈利，在这些年里，我们的浮存金成本低于零。实际上，我们",[831,1098,1099],{},"反而","因为持有前面表格中所列的那些巨额浮存金而获得了报酬。",[14,1102,1103],{},"不过我也提醒过你们，近些年我们运气一直不错，行业经历的这段巨灾稀少期并非新常态。去年9月的事实证明了这一点——三场强飓风接连袭击了得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州和波多黎各。",[14,1105,1106,1107,1110],{},"我目前估计，这些飓风造成的保险损失大约在1,000亿美元左右。不过这个数字可能",[831,1108,1109],{},"远远","不够准确。绝大多数特大灾难的惯例是，最初的损失估计都偏低。正如知名分析师V.J.·道林 (V.J. Dowling) 所指出的那样，保险公司的损失准备金就像是自己给自己打分的考试。无知、一厢情愿、甚至偶尔的弄虚作假，都可能使保险公司的财务状况在很长一段时间内失真。",[14,1112,1113],{},"我们目前估计伯克希尔在三场飓风中的损失约为30亿美元（税后约20亿美元）。如果这个估计和我对行业1,000亿美元的损失估计都大致准确的话，我们在行业损失中占比约3%。我认为这一比例也是我们在未来美国特大巨灾中合理预期的损失份额。",[14,1115,1116,1117,1120],{},"值得注意的是，三场飓风造成的20亿美元税后净损失，使伯克希尔GAAP口径下的净资产减少了不到1%。再保险行业中的许多其他公司，净资产损失幅度在7%到超过15%不等。对它们来说，情况本可以",[831,1118,1119],{},"糟糕得多","：如果艾尔玛 (Irma) 飓风穿越佛罗里达的路径稍微偏东一些，保险损失很可能会再增加1,000亿美元。",[14,1122,1123],{},"我们认为，美国每年发生造成4,000亿美元或以上保险损失的特大巨灾的概率约为2%。当然，没有人知道准确的概率。但我们确实知道，由于灾害易发地区建筑物的数量和价值都在增长，这一风险随着时间的推移在不断上升。",[14,1125,1126,1127,1130],{},"没有哪家公司能像伯克希尔一样为4,000亿美元的特大巨灾做好充分的财务准备。我们在此类损失中的份额大约是120亿美元左右，远低于我们预期每年从非保险业务中获得的收益。与此同时，财产意外险行业中的大部分——甚至可能是绝大部分——公司都将破产。我们无与伦比的财务实力解释了为什么其他财产意外险公司要来伯克希尔——也",[831,1128,1129],{},"只能","来伯克希尔——购买大额再保险，以应对遥远的未来它们可能不得不支付的大额赔偿。",[14,1132,1133],{},"2017年之前，伯克希尔保险业务已连续14年实现承保盈利，累计税前收益达283亿美元。我经常告诉你们，我预计伯克希尔在大多数年份能实现承保盈利，但也会不时遭遇亏损。我的警告在2017年成为了现实——我们因承保亏损了32亿美元（税前）。",[14,1135,1136],{},"有关我们各类保险业务的更多信息，请参阅本报告附录的10-K表格。我在此唯一要补充的一点是：你们拥有一批杰出的经理人，在我们的各项财产意外险业务中为你们效力。这是一个没有商业秘密、专利或地理优势的行业。最重要的是头脑和资本。我们旗下各保险公司的经理人贡献了头脑，伯克希尔提供了资本。",[811,1138],{},[14,1140,1141],{},"多年来，这封信一直在逐个描述伯克希尔旗下众多业务的经营状况。这种讨论已经变得既重复，又与紧随信后的10-K表格中的信息部分雷同。因此，今年我将给你们做一个简要的总结。详细信息可参见10-K表格K-5至K-22页和K-40至K-50页。",[14,1143,1144,1145,1148],{},"作为一个整体来看——",[831,1146,1147],{},"不含投资收益","——我们旗下的非保险业务在2017年实现了200亿美元的税前利润，比2016年增加了9.5亿美元。2017年约44%的利润来自两家子公司：BNSF铁路和伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源 (Berkshire Hathaway Energy)（我们持有90.2%的股权）。你们可以在K-5至K-10页和K-40至K-44页读到更多关于这两家公司的内容。",[14,1150,1151],{},"在伯克希尔一长串子公司中，按盈利排名紧随其后的五家非保险业务——克莱顿之家、国际金属加工公司 (International Metalworking Companies)、路博润 (Lubrizol)、马蒙集团 (Marmon) 和精密铸件公司——2017年的税前利润合计为55亿美元，与2016年的54亿美元基本持平。（以上按字母顺序排列。）",[14,1153,1154],{},"再接下来的五家——森林河公司 (Forest River)、约翰曼维尔 (Johns Manville)、MiTek、肖氏 (Shaw) 和TTI——去年盈利21亿美元，高于2016年的17亿美元。（同样按字母顺序排列。）",[14,1156,1157],{},"伯克希尔旗下的其余企业——数量众多——税前利润变化不大，2017年为37亿美元，2016年为35亿美元。",[14,1159,1160],{},"所有这些非保险业务的折旧费用合计76亿美元；资本支出为115亿美元。伯克希尔始终在寻找扩大业务的途径，资本支出经常大幅超过折旧费用。我们近90%的投资都在美国进行。美国的经济土壤依然肥沃。",[14,1162,1163],{},"摊销费用另有13亿美元。我相信这项费用在很大程度上并非真正的经济成本。但部分抵消这个好消息的是，BNSF铁路（和所有其他铁路公司一样）记录的折旧费用远低于维持铁路一流运营状态所需的经常性支出。",[14,1165,1166],{},"伯克希尔的目标是大幅提升非保险业务群的盈利水平。为此，我们需要进行一笔或多笔大规模收购。我们当然有资源做到这一点。截至2017年底，伯克希尔持有1,160亿美元的现金和美国国库券（平均期限88天），高于2016年底的864亿美元。如此超常的流动性只能获得微不足道的回报，远远超出查理和我希望伯克希尔保持的水平。等到我们把伯克希尔的冗余资金重新配置到更具生产力的资产中时，我们的笑容才会更灿烂。",[872,1168,1169],{"id":1169},"投资业务",[14,1171,1172],{},"下表列出了截至2017年底市值最大的15只普通股投资。我们没有将卡夫亨氏的持股列入其中——325,442,152股——因为伯克希尔是控股集团的一员，因此必须按”权益法”对这笔投资入账。在资产负债表上，伯克希尔对卡夫亨氏的持股按GAAP计价为176亿美元。这些股份的年末市值为253亿美元，成本基础为98亿美元。",[14,1174,1175],{},"2017年12月31日",[21,1177,1178,1197],{},[24,1179,1180],{},[27,1181,1182,1185,1188,1191,1194],{},[30,1183,1184],{},"股份数量*",[30,1186,1187],{},"公司名称",[30,1189,1190],{},"持股比例",[30,1192,1193],{},"成本**（百万美元）",[30,1195,1196],{},"市值（百万美元）",[43,1198,1199,1216,1233,1250,1267,1284,1301,1318,1334,1351,1368,1385,1402,1418,1435,1452,1467],{},[27,1200,1201,1204,1207,1210,1213],{},[48,1202,1203],{},"151,610,700",[48,1205,1206],{},"美国运通 (American Express)",[48,1208,1209],{},"17.6",[48,1211,1212],{},"$ 1,287",[48,1214,1215],{},"$ 15,056",[27,1217,1218,1221,1224,1227,1230],{},[48,1219,1220],{},"166,713,209",[48,1222,1223],{},"苹果公司 (Apple)",[48,1225,1226],{},"3.3",[48,1228,1229],{},"20,961",[48,1231,1232],{},"28,213",[27,1234,1235,1238,1241,1244,1247],{},[48,1236,1237],{},"700,000,000",[48,1239,1240],{},"美国银行 (Bank of America)",[48,1242,1243],{},"6.8",[48,1245,1246],{},"5,007",[48,1248,1249],{},"20,664",[27,1251,1252,1255,1258,1261,1264],{},[48,1253,1254],{},"53,307,534",[48,1256,1257],{},"纽约梅隆银行 (Bank of New York Mellon)",[48,1259,1260],{},"5.3",[48,1262,1263],{},"2,230",[48,1265,1266],{},"2,871",[27,1268,1269,1272,1275,1278,1281],{},[48,1270,1271],{},"225,000,000",[48,1273,1274],{},"比亚迪 (BYD)",[48,1276,1277],{},"8.2",[48,1279,1280],{},"232",[48,1282,1283],{},"1,961",[27,1285,1286,1289,1292,1295,1298],{},[48,1287,1288],{},"6,789,054",[48,1290,1291],{},"特许通讯 (Charter Communications)",[48,1293,1294],{},"2.8",[48,1296,1297],{},"1,210",[48,1299,1300],{},"2,281",[27,1302,1303,1306,1309,1312,1315],{},[48,1304,1305],{},"400,000,000",[48,1307,1308],{},"可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)",[48,1310,1311],{},"9.4",[48,1313,1314],{},"1,299",[48,1316,1317],{},"18,352",[27,1319,1320,1323,1326,1328,1331],{},[48,1321,1322],{},"53,110,395",[48,1324,1325],{},"达美航空 (Delta Airlines)",[48,1327,400],{},[48,1329,1330],{},"2,219",[48,1332,1333],{},"2,974",[27,1335,1336,1339,1342,1345,1348],{},[48,1337,1338],{},"44,527,147",[48,1340,1341],{},"通用汽车 (General Motors)",[48,1343,1344],{},"3.2",[48,1346,1347],{},"1,343",[48,1349,1350],{},"1,825",[27,1352,1353,1356,1359,1362,1365],{},[48,1354,1355],{},"11,390,582",[48,1357,1358],{},"高盛 (Goldman Sachs)",[48,1360,1361],{},"3.0",[48,1363,1364],{},"654",[48,1366,1367],{},"2,902",[27,1369,1370,1373,1376,1379,1382],{},[48,1371,1372],{},"24,669,778",[48,1374,1375],{},"穆迪 (Moody’s)",[48,1377,1378],{},"12.9",[48,1380,1381],{},"248",[48,1383,1384],{},"3,642",[27,1386,1387,1390,1393,1396,1399],{},[48,1388,1389],{},"74,587,892",[48,1391,1392],{},"菲利普66 (Phillips 66)",[48,1394,1395],{},"14.9",[48,1397,1398],{},"5,841",[48,1400,1401],{},"7,545",[27,1403,1404,1407,1410,1412,1415],{},[48,1405,1406],{},"47,659,456",[48,1408,1409],{},"西南航空 (Southwest Airlines)",[48,1411,153],{},[48,1413,1414],{},"1,997",[48,1416,1417],{},"3,119",[27,1419,1420,1423,1426,1429,1432],{},[48,1421,1422],{},"103,855,045",[48,1424,1425],{},"美国合众银行 (U.S. Bancorp)",[48,1427,1428],{},"6.3",[48,1430,1431],{},"3,343",[48,1433,1434],{},"5,565",[27,1436,1437,1440,1443,1446,1449],{},[48,1438,1439],{},"482,544,468",[48,1441,1442],{},"富国银行 (Wells Fargo)",[48,1444,1445],{},"9.9",[48,1447,1448],{},"11,837",[48,1450,1451],{},"29,276",[27,1453,1454,1456,1459,1461,1464],{},[48,1455],{},[48,1457,1458],{},"其他",[48,1460],{},[48,1462,1463],{},"14,968",[48,1465,1466],{},"24,294",[27,1468,1469,1471,1474,1476,1479],{},[48,1470],{},[48,1472,1473],{},"股票投资合计",[48,1475],{},[48,1477,1478],{},"$ 74,676",[48,1480,1481],{},"$ 170,540",[920,1483,1484],{},[923,1485,1486],{},"不包括伯克希尔子公司养老金持有的股份。",[14,1488,1489],{},"** 此处为实际购买成本，也是我们的计税基础；GAAP”成本”在少数情况下有所不同，因为GAAP准则要求对某些持股进行减记。",[14,1491,1492,1493,1496],{},"表中部分股票由托德·库姆斯 (Todd Combs) 或泰德·韦施勒 (Ted Weschler) 负责，他们与我一起管理伯克希尔的投资。他们每人都",[831,1494,1495],{},"独立于我","管理着超过120亿美元的资金；我通常是通过查阅月度投资组合摘要来了解他们的决策。两人管理的250亿美元资金中包含伯克希尔某些子公司超过80亿美元的养老金信托资产。如前所述，养老金投资并未计入前面的伯克希尔持仓表格。",[811,1498],{},[14,1500,1501,1502,1505],{},"查理和我把伯克希尔持有的有价证券视为对",[831,1503,1504],{},"企业","的所有权，而不是根据”技术图形”、分析师”目标价”或媒体专家的意见来买卖的股票代码。相反，我们只是相信，如果被投资企业的经营是成功的（我们相信大多数都会如此），那我们的投资也将是成功的。有时我们的回报会比较温和；偶尔收银机会响个不停。有时我也会犯下代价高昂的错误。总体而言——随着时间的推移——我们应该能取得不错的成绩。在美国，股票投资者是顺风而行的。",[14,1507,1508],{},"从我们的股票投资组合中——你们可以把我们的持仓称为对一个多元化上市企业集团的”少数股东权益”——伯克希尔在2017年收到了37亿美元的股息。这个数字已包含在我们的GAAP收益中，也包含在我们在季报和年报中提及的”经营收益”中。",[14,1510,1511,1512,1514,1515,1518],{},"但是，这个股息数字",[831,1513,1109],{},"低估了我们所持股票的”真实”收益。几十年来，我们一直在”股东商业原则”第六条中声明（见第19页），我们预期被投资公司的",[831,1516,1517],{},"未分配","收益将通过后续的资本增值为我们带来至少等量的回报。",[14,1520,1521,1522,1524],{},"我们确认的资本损益将是不均匀的，尤其是我们将遵循新GAAP准则，要求我们持续记录",[831,1523,850],{},"损益。但我有信心，随着时间推移，被投资公司的留存收益——将所有被投资公司视为一个整体——终将转化为伯克希尔相应的资本增值。",[14,1526,1527],{},"我刚才描述的价值积累与留存收益之间的联系，在短期内是不可能看出来的。股价暴涨暴跌，似乎与逐年积累的内在价值毫无关系。然而随着时间推移，本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 那句广为引用的格言终会被证明是对的：“短期来看，市场是一台投票机；但从长远来看，它是一台称重机。”",[811,1529],{},[14,1531,1532],{},"伯克希尔自身就提供了一些生动的例子，说明短期股价的随机波动如何掩盖价值的长期增长。在过去53年里，公司通过将收益进行再投资、让复利施展魔力来创造价值。我们年复一年向前迈进。然而伯克希尔的股价确实遭受过四次真正的重大下跌。以下就是血淋淋的细节：",[21,1534,1535,1551],{},[24,1536,1537],{},[27,1538,1539,1542,1545,1548],{},[30,1540,1541],{},"时间段",[30,1543,1544],{},"高点",[30,1546,1547],{},"低点",[30,1549,1550],{},"跌幅",[43,1552,1553,1567,1581,1595],{},[27,1554,1555,1558,1561,1564],{},[48,1556,1557],{},"1973年3月至1975年1月",[48,1559,1560],{},"93",[48,1562,1563],{},"38",[48,1565,1566],{},"(59.1%)",[27,1568,1569,1572,1575,1578],{},[48,1570,1571],{},"1987年10月2日至10月27日",[48,1573,1574],{},"4,250",[48,1576,1577],{},"2,675",[48,1579,1580],{},"(37.1%)",[27,1582,1583,1586,1589,1592],{},[48,1584,1585],{},"1998年6月19日至2000年3月10日",[48,1587,1588],{},"80,900",[48,1590,1591],{},"41,300",[48,1593,1594],{},"(48.9%)",[27,1596,1597,1600,1603,1606],{},[48,1598,1599],{},"2008年9月19日至2009年3月5日",[48,1601,1602],{},"147,000",[48,1604,1605],{},"72,400",[48,1607,1608],{},"(50.7%)",[14,1610,1611],{},"这张表格是我能找到的反对借钱炒股的最有力论据。因为你根本无法知道股票在短期内能跌多深。即使你的借款金额很小，仓位也没有立刻受到暴跌市场的威胁，但那些令人毛骨悚然的新闻标题和让人喘不过气来的评论也足以让你心神大乱。而一个心绪不宁的人是做不出好决策的。",[14,1613,1614,1615,1618,1619,1622],{},"在接下来的53年里，伯克希尔的股票（以及其他股票）必将经历与表格中相似的暴跌。",[831,1616,1617],{},"没有人","能告诉你这些事情什么时候会发生。绿灯可以在",[831,1620,1621],{},"任何时候","不经黄灯直接变成红灯。",[14,1624,1625,1626,1629],{},"但是，当大跌来临时，它为那些没有债务拖累的人提供了非凡的机会。这时候该想想吉卜林 (Kipling) 那首《如果》(",[831,1627,1628],{},"If",") 里的诗句了：",[1631,1632,1633,1636,1639,1642,1645],"blockquote",{},[14,1634,1635],{},"“如果所有人都失去理智，你却能保持冷静……",[14,1637,1638],{},"如果你能耐心等待，而不急不躁……",[14,1640,1641],{},"如果你能审慎思考，而不以思考为目的……",[14,1643,1644],{},"如果众人对你心存猜疑，你仍能自信如常……",[14,1646,1647],{},"那么，你拥有的将是整个世界和世间万物。”",[872,1649,1651],{"id":1650},"十年赌约如期结束并带来一堂意想不到的投资课","十年赌约如期结束，并带来一堂意想不到的投资课",[14,1653,1654],{},"去年，在赌约进行了90%的时候，我给了你们一份关于我2007年12月19日立下的十年赌约的详细报告。（去年年报中的完整讨论重印于第24至26页。）现在，我有了最终的结算数据——从好几个方面来看，都让人大开眼界。",[14,1656,1657],{},"我下这个赌注有两个原因：（1）将我318,250美元的投入通过杠杆放大为一笔大得不成比例的金额——如果事情按我预期发展的话——这笔钱将在2018年初捐赠给奥马哈女孩公司 (Girls Inc. of Omaha)；（2）宣传我的一个信念：我选择的投资——一只几乎零成本的非主动管理型标普500指数基金——随着时间推移，将会比大多数投资专家取得更好的成绩，不管这些”帮手们”多么声名显赫、激励机制多么诱人。",[14,1659,1660,1661,1664],{},"解答这个问题具有重大意义。美国投资者每年向投资顾问支付的费用高得惊人，而且往往叠加了好几层间接成本。总体而言，这些投资者的花费物有所值吗？说得更直白些，投资者花出去的钱到底换回来了",[831,1662,1663],{},"什么","？",[14,1666,1667,1668,1670],{},"我的对赌方门徒合伙公司 (Protégé Partners) 选了5只”基金的基金”(FOF)，认为它们的表现将超越标普500指数。这可",[831,1669,833],{},"一个小样本。这5只FOF基金轮番持有200多只对冲基金的权益。",[14,1672,1673],{},"实际上，门徒合伙公司——一家对华尔街了如指掌的咨询公司——挑选了5位投资专家，而这5位专家又雇佣了数以百计的其他投资专家，每人都管理着自己的对冲基金。这是一支精英团队，聪明绝顶、热血沸腾、信心满满。",[14,1675,1676],{},"这5只FOF基金的经理还拥有一个额外的优势：他们可以——也确实这样做了——在十年期间不断调整旗下的对冲基金组合，投资新崛起的”明星”，同时退出那些失去手感的基金经理。",[14,1678,1679],{},"门徒合伙方的每一个参与者都受到高度激励：FOF基金经理和他们挑选的对冲基金经理都能大幅分享投资收益，哪怕那些收益不过是市场整体上涨的结果。（自我们接管伯克希尔以来的43个十年滚动期中，标普500指数上涨的年份*100%*都多于下跌的年份。）",[14,1681,1682,1683,1686,1687,1690,1691,1694],{},"需要强调的是，这种业绩提成不过是一块巨大美味蛋糕上的糖霜：即使这些基金在十年里让投资者",[831,1684,1685],{},"亏了钱","，基金经理们照样可以赚得盆满钵满。因为FOF基金的投资者",[831,1688,1689],{},"每年","都要支付平均高达惊人的2.5%左右的",[831,1692,1693],{},"固定","管理费，其中一部分流向5只FOF基金的经理，其余部分流向200多只底层对冲基金的经理。",[14,1696,1697],{},"以下是赌约的最终记分卡：",[21,1699,1700,1724],{},[24,1701,1702],{},[27,1703,1704,1706,1709,1712,1715,1718,1721],{},[30,1705,32],{},[30,1707,1708],{},"FOF基金A",[30,1710,1711],{},"FOF基金B",[30,1713,1714],{},"FOF基金C",[30,1716,1717],{},"FOF基金D",[30,1719,1720],{},"FOF基金E",[30,1722,1723],{},"标普指数基金",[43,1725,1726,1748,1770,1792,1812,1834,1856,1878,1899,1919,1941,1964],{},[27,1727,1728,1730,1733,1736,1739,1742,1745],{},[48,1729,639],{},[48,1731,1732],{},"-16.5%",[48,1734,1735],{},"-22.3%",[48,1737,1738],{},"-21.3%",[48,1740,1741],{},"-29.3%",[48,1743,1744],{},"-30.1%",[48,1746,1747],{},"-37.0%",[27,1749,1750,1752,1755,1758,1761,1764,1767],{},[48,1751,653],{},[48,1753,1754],{},"11.3%",[48,1756,1757],{},"14.5%",[48,1759,1760],{},"21.4%",[48,1762,1763],{},"16.5%",[48,1765,1766],{},"16.8%",[48,1768,1769],{},"26.6%",[27,1771,1772,1774,1777,1780,1783,1786,1789],{},[48,1773,667],{},[48,1775,1776],{},"5.9%",[48,1778,1779],{},"6.8%",[48,1781,1782],{},"13.3%",[48,1784,1785],{},"4.9%",[48,1787,1788],{},"11.9%",[48,1790,1791],{},"15.1%",[27,1793,1794,1796,1799,1802,1804,1806,1809],{},[48,1795,680],{},[48,1797,1798],{},"-6.3%",[48,1800,1801],{},"-1.3%",[48,1803,1776],{},[48,1805,1798],{},[48,1807,1808],{},"-2.8%",[48,1810,1811],{},"2.1%",[27,1813,1814,1816,1819,1822,1825,1828,1831],{},[48,1815,693],{},[48,1817,1818],{},"3.4%",[48,1820,1821],{},"9.6%",[48,1823,1824],{},"5.7%",[48,1826,1827],{},"6.2%",[48,1829,1830],{},"9.1%",[48,1832,1833],{},"16.0%",[27,1835,1836,1838,1841,1844,1847,1850,1853],{},[48,1837,707],{},[48,1839,1840],{},"10.5%",[48,1842,1843],{},"15.2%",[48,1845,1846],{},"8.8%",[48,1848,1849],{},"14.2%",[48,1851,1852],{},"14.4%",[48,1854,1855],{},"32.3%",[27,1857,1858,1860,1863,1866,1869,1872,1875],{},[48,1859,720],{},[48,1861,1862],{},"4.7%",[48,1864,1865],{},"4.0%",[48,1867,1868],{},"18.9%",[48,1870,1871],{},"0.7%",[48,1873,1874],{},"-2.1%",[48,1876,1877],{},"13.6%",[27,1879,1880,1882,1885,1888,1891,1894,1897],{},[48,1881,734],{},[48,1883,1884],{},"1.6%",[48,1886,1887],{},"2.5%",[48,1889,1890],{},"5.4%",[48,1892,1893],{},"1.4%",[48,1895,1896],{},"-5.0%",[48,1898,1893],{},[27,1900,1901,1903,1906,1909,1912,1914,1917],{},[48,1902,747],{},[48,1904,1905],{},"-3.2%",[48,1907,1908],{},"1.9%",[48,1910,1911],{},"-1.7%",[48,1913,1887],{},[48,1915,1916],{},"4.4%",[48,1918,1788],{},[27,1920,1921,1923,1926,1929,1932,1935,1938],{},[48,1922,760],{},[48,1924,1925],{},"12.2%",[48,1927,1928],{},"10.6%",[48,1930,1931],{},"15.6%",[48,1933,1934],{},"N\u002FA",[48,1936,1937],{},"18.0%",[48,1939,1940],{},"21.8%",[27,1942,1943,1946,1949,1952,1955,1958,1961],{},[48,1944,1945],{},"累计收益率",[48,1947,1948],{},"21.7%",[48,1950,1951],{},"42.3%",[48,1953,1954],{},"87.7%",[48,1956,1957],{},"2.8%",[48,1959,1960],{},"27.0%",[48,1962,1963],{},"125.8%",[27,1965,1966,1969,1972,1975,1978,1981,1984],{},[48,1967,1968],{},"年化收益率",[48,1970,1971],{},"2.0%",[48,1973,1974],{},"3.6%",[48,1976,1977],{},"6.5%",[48,1979,1980],{},"0.3%",[48,1982,1983],{},"2.4%",[48,1985,1986],{},"8.5%",[14,1988,1989],{},"注：根据我与门徒合伙公司的协议，这些FOF基金的名称从未公开披露。但我已收到门徒合伙提供的年度审计报告。基金A、B、C的2016年数据较去年最初报告略有修正。基金D已于2017年清盘；其年平均收益率按实际运营的九年计算。",[14,1991,1992,1993,1996],{},"5只FOF基金起步很快，2008年全都跑赢了指数基金。然后就塌了。在此后的",[831,1994,1995],{},"每一年","里，FOF基金整体都落后于指数基金。",[14,1998,1999],{},"让我强调一下，过去十年股市的表现没有任何异常之处。如果2007年底对投资”专家”做一次关于长期股票回报率的调查，他们的预测平均值很可能接近标普500指数实际交出的8.5%。在那样的环境下，赚钱本该是件容易的事。事实上，华尔街的”帮手们”赚得盆满钵满。然而，在这个群体大发其财的同时，他们的许多投资者却经历了”失落的十年”。",[14,2001,2002],{},"绩效有起有落，费用从不打折。",[811,2004],{},[14,2006,2007,2008,2011],{},"这场赌约还揭示了另一个重要的投资教训：虽然市场总体上是理性的，但偶尔也会做出疯狂的事情。抓住市场在那些时刻提供的机会，",[831,2009,2010],{},"不","需要很高的智商、经济学学位，也不需要懂什么Alpha和Beta之类的华尔街术语。投资者真正需要的是一种能力——既能无视乌合之众的恐惧或狂热，又能专注于几个简单的基本面要素。另外，愿意在相当长的时间里表现得毫无新意——甚至看起来像个傻子——也是不可或缺的。",[14,2013,2014],{},"最初，门徒合伙和我各自购买了面值50万美元的零息美国国债（有时称为”剥离债券 (strips)“），为最终100万美元的赌金提供资金。这些债券让我们每人花了318,250美元——略低于面值的六四折——50万美元将在十年后支付。",[14,2016,2017],{},"顾名思义，我们买的这种债券不支付利息，但（因为购买时有折价）如果持有至到期，年化回报率为4.56%。门徒合伙和我最初的计划只是每年统计回报率，并在2017年底债券到期时把100万美元捐给获胜方选定的慈善机构。",[14,2019,2020,2021,2024,2025,2028,2029,884],{},"然而，购买之后债券市场发生了一些非常奇怪的事情。到2012年11月，我们的债券——距到期还有大约五年——已经涨到了面值的",[831,2022,2023],{},"95.7%","。按",[831,2026,2027],{},"这个","价格，其到期年化收益率不到1%。确切地说，是",[831,2030,2031],{},"0.88%",[14,2033,2034,2035,2038,2039,2042],{},"考虑到这个可怜的回报率，与美国股票相比，我们的债券已经变成了一项愚蠢的——",[831,2036,2037],{},"真正","愚蠢的——投资。长期来看，标普500指数——代表了美国企业的一个巨大横截面，按市值适当加权——股东权益（净资产）的年化回报率",[831,2040,2041],{},"远超","10%。",[14,2044,2045,2046,2049],{},"2012年11月，当我们权衡这一切时，标普500指数的股息",[831,2047,2048],{},"现金","收益率约为年化2.5%，大约是我们那只国债收益率的三倍。而且这些股息几乎肯定还会增长。除此之外，构成标普500的企业还留存了巨额收益。这些企业会用留存收益来扩大业务，而且经常还会回购自家股票。这两种做法随着时间推移都会大幅提高每股收益。而且——正如1776年以来一直如此的那样——不管眼下遇到什么问题，美国经济都会继续向前发展。",[14,2051,2052],{},"面对2012年底债券与股票之间如此异常的估值错配，门徒合伙和我决定卖掉五年前买的债券，用所得资金买入11,200股伯克希尔B股。结果是：奥马哈女孩公司上个月收到了2,222,279美元，而不是最初期望的100万美元。",[14,2054,2055],{},"需要强调的是，自2012年进行这一转换以来，伯克希尔的股票表现并不算出色。但出色并非必要：毕竟，伯克希尔的收益只需要超过债券年化0.88%的那个可怜的标杆就行——这远算不上什么赫拉克勒斯式的壮举。",[14,2057,2058,2059,2062],{},"从债券转为伯克希尔股票的唯一风险在于，2017年底恰好赶上一个异常疲弱的股市。门徒合伙和我都认为这种可能性（虽然",[831,2060,2061],{},"始终","存在）非常小。两个因素支撑了这一判断：2012年底伯克希尔的估值合理，以及在赌约到期前的五年里伯克希尔几乎必然会实现大量的资产积累。尽管如此，为了完全消除这次转换给慈善机构带来的风险，我同意如果2017年底出售这11,200股伯克希尔B股不能产生至少100万美元的收益，我将补足差额。",[811,2064],{},[14,2066,2067],{},"投资是一种放弃今天的消费、以期在未来获得更多消费能力的活动。“风险”是指这一目标可能无法实现。",[14,2069,2070,2071,2074],{},"按照这个标准，2012年那些号称”无风险”的长期债券，其实际风险要",[831,2072,2073],{},"远高于","长期投资股票。当时，即便2012到2017年间的年通胀率仅仅只有1%，也会侵蚀门徒合伙和我出售的那只国债的购买力。",[14,2076,2077,2078,2081,2082,2085],{},"我要坦率地承认，在",[831,2079,2080],{},"任何","未来的一天、一周乃至一年里，股票的风险都会比短期美国国债高——高得多。然而，随着投资者投资期限的拉长，一个多元化的美国股票组合——假设是以相对当时利率水平合理的市盈率买入——的风险会逐渐",[831,2083,2084],{},"低于","债券。",[14,2087,2088,2089,2092],{},"对于具有长期投资视野的投资者——包括养老基金、大学捐赠基金和注重储蓄的个人——用投资组合中债券和股票的比例来衡量投资”风险”，这是一个严重的错误。通常，投资组合中的高等级债券反而会",[831,2090,2091],{},"增加","其风险。",[811,2094],{},[14,2096,2097],{},"来自我们赌约的最后一课：坚持做重大而”简单”的决策，避免频繁折腾。在十年赌约期间，那200多位对冲基金经理几乎肯定做出了数以万计的买卖决策。毫无疑问，大多数经理都对每一个决策深思熟虑，认为每一步都会被证明是有利的。在投资过程中，他们研究10-K报表、访谈管理层、研读行业期刊、与华尔街分析师交流意见。",[14,2099,2100],{},"与此同时，门徒合伙和我在十年里只做了一个投资决策，既不靠深入研究，也不靠独到洞见，更不靠什么天才。我们只是决定以超过100倍”市盈率“的价格卖掉债券投资（95.7的卖价 \u002F 0.88的收益率），而且这些”收益”在接下来五年里不可能增长。",[14,2102,2103],{},"我们卖出债券是为了将资金转入单一的一只证券——伯克希尔——而这家公司又拥有一个多元化的稳健企业组合。在留存收益的推动下，伯克希尔的价值增长不太可能低于年化8%，哪怕我们要经历一个平淡无奇的经济周期。",[14,2105,2106],{},"做完了这番幼儿园水平的分析，门徒合伙和我完成了转换，然后就安心地坐下来了。我们深信，随着时间推移，8%肯定能大幅击败0.88%。事实也确实如此。",[872,2108,2109],{"id":2109},"年度股东大会",[14,2111,2112,2113,2119],{},"年度股东大会定于5月5日举行，雅虎 (Yahoo!) 将再次进行网络直播，网址为 ",[2114,2115,2116],"a",{"href":2116,"rel":2117},"https:\u002F\u002Ffinance.yahoo.com\u002Fbrklivestream",[2118],"nofollow","。直播将于美国中部夏令时上午8:45开始。雅虎将在会前和午休期间采访公司董事、经理人、股东和各界名人。采访和会议将同步翻译为中文。",[14,2121,2122],{},"我们与雅虎的合作始于2016年，股东们的反响十分热烈。去年实时收看人数增长了72%，达到约310万，而短视频片段的回放次数累计达1,710万。",[14,2124,2125],{},"对于亲身到场的参会者，世纪互联中心 (CenturyLink) 的大门将于周六上午7:00开放，以便大家在8:30股东电影开播前购物。问答环节将于9:15开始，持续至下午3:30，中午有一小时午餐时间。最后，下午3:45将开始正式的股东大会，通常持续15至45分钟。购物时间在下午4:30结束。",[14,2127,2128],{},"5月4日（周五），伯克希尔在世纪互联中心的展区将从中午12点开放至下午5点。2015年我们新增了这段额外的购物时间，热衷购物的朋友们对此赞不绝口。去年周五开放的五个小时里，大约有1.2万人涌入了展区。",[14,2130,2131,2132,2135],{},"购物的场地是毗邻会场的一个面积为194,300平方英尺的大厅，数十家伯克希尔子公司的产品将在这里",[831,2133,2134],{},"出售","。（你们的董事长可不提倡免费赠品。）跟站在各自展位前的众多伯克希尔经理们打个招呼吧。还一定要去看看精彩的BNSF铁路模型展示，它向我们所有的公司致敬。",[14,2137,2138],{},"我们旗下的跑鞋公司布鲁克斯 (Brooks) 将再次在会上推出一款特别纪念版跑鞋。买一双穿上，周日上午8点来参加我们的第六届年度”伯克希尔5公里跑”——起点就在世纪互联中心。参赛的详细信息会随你的会议凭证一起寄出。参赛者们会发现自己与伯克希尔的许多经理人、董事和同仁并肩奔跑。（不过查理和我会睡懒觉；就算穿上布鲁克斯跑鞋，我们的成绩也会让人不好意思说出口。）5公里跑的参与人数年年增长，来帮我们再创纪录吧。",[14,2140,2141],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO) 将在购物区设置展位，配备来自全国各地的多名顶级顾问。在去年的股东大会上，我们的保单销售量创下纪录，比2016年增长了43%。",[14,2143,2144],{},"所以一定要过来问问报价。在大多数情况下，盖可保险可以给你一个股东折扣（通常是8%）。这一特别优惠在我们运营的51个辖区中有44个适用。（补充一点：如果你已经享受了其他折扣——比如某些团体折扣——两者不可叠加。）带上你现有的保单信息来对比一下我们的价格。我们能为你们中的很多人省下实打实的钱。把省下来的钱花在其他伯克希尔产品上吧。",[14,2146,2147,2148,2151,2152,2155],{},"一定要去逛逛书虫书店 (Bookworm)。这家奥马哈本地的零售商将带来超过40种图书和DVD，其中有几本新书。伯克希尔的股东堪称书商的梦想客户：几年前《穷查理宝典》(",[831,2149,2150],{},"Poor Charlie’s Almanack",")（没错，是",[831,2153,2154],{},"我们的","查理）首次亮相时，我们在会上就卖出了3,500本。这本书每本重4.85磅。来算个数：我们的股东们那天离开大楼时，带走了大约8.5吨芒格的智慧。",[14,2157,2158],{},"随本报告一起附上的委托书材料中，详细说明了如何获取参加会议和其他活动所需的入场凭证。请记住，大多数航空公司在伯克希尔周末期间都会大幅提高票价。如果你从远方赶来，比较一下飞堪萨斯城和飞奥马哈的费用。两个城市之间车程大约2.5小时，飞堪萨斯城可能会为你省下一大笔钱。一对夫妇节省的费用可达1,000美元甚至更多。把省下的钱花在我们这里吧。",[14,2160,2161],{},"在内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)——这家占地77英亩的卖场位于72街上、道奇 (Dodge) 和太平洋 (Pacific) 之间——我们将再次提供”伯克希尔周末”折扣价。要享受NFM的伯克希尔折扣，你必须在5月1日（周二）至5月7日（周一）期间购买（含首尾两天），并出示会议凭证。去年，这家店那一周的销售额达到了惊人的4,460万美元。在NFM，实体零售依然生机勃勃。",[14,2163,2164],{},"这段时间的特别定价甚至适用于几家顶级品牌制造商的产品。这些制造商通常对折扣有着铁一般的规定，但本着我们股东周末的精神，它们为你们破了例。我们感谢它们的配合。“伯克希尔周末”期间，NFM的营业时间为周一至周六上午10点至晚上9点，周日上午11点至晚上8点。周六下午5:30至8点，NFM将举办一场野餐会，欢迎所有人参加。",[14,2166,2167],{},"NFM还将把股东折扣延伸至堪萨斯城和达拉斯门店。从5月1日到5月7日，在这些门店出示会议凭证或其他伯克希尔持股证明（如券商对账单）的股东，将享受与奥马哈门店相同的折扣。",[14,2169,2170],{},"在波仙珠宝店 (Borsheims)，我们将再次举办两场仅面向股东的活动。第一场是5月4日（周五）下午6点至9点的鸡尾酒会。第二场——盛大的主活动——将于5月6日（周日）上午9点至下午4点举行。周六波仙将营业至下午6点。记住，买得越多，省得越多（至少我女儿是这么告诉我的，每次我们去这家店的时候）。",[14,2172,2173],{},"整个周末波仙都会人潮涌动。因此，为了各位的方便，股东价格的有效期为4月30日（周一）至5月12日（周六）。在此期间，请出示会议凭证或券商对账单以证明你的股东身份。",[14,2175,2176],{},"周日下午，在波仙楼上，我们将安排世界顶级桥牌专家鲍勃·哈曼 (Bob Hamman) 和莎朗·奥斯伯格 (Sharon Osberg) 与股东们切磋。如果他们提议在牌桌上下注，赶紧换个话题。阿吉特 (Ajit)、查理、比尔·盖茨 (Bill Gates) 和我也可能会顺道过来看看。",[14,2178,2179],{},"我的朋友邢延华 (Ariel Hsing) 周日也会在商场出现，在乒乓球台上迎战各路挑战者。我在她九岁时就认识她了，即便那时我也从没在她身上赢过一分。邢延华曾代表美国参加了2012年奥运会。如果你不怕丢脸的话，下午1点起来试试自己的身手吧。比尔·盖茨去年跟邢延华打得不错，所以他可能会再次应战。（我的建议是：把赌注押在邢延华身上。）我将仅以顾问身份参加。",[14,2181,2182,2183,2186],{},"戈拉特牛排馆 (Gorat’s) 将于5月6日（周日）专门为伯克希尔股东开放，营业时间为中午12点至晚上10点。预订请于4月2日致电402-551-3733（",[831,2184,2185],{},"不要","提前）。想要展示你是一位老练的食客？那就点一份T骨牛排配土豆饼。",[14,2188,2189,2190,2194,2195,2199,2200,884],{},"我们将继续由同样三位财经记者主持股东大会的问答环节，他们会向查理和我提出股东通过电子邮件提交的问题。这三位记者及其邮箱分别是：她那个时代最杰出的商业记者卡罗尔·卢米斯 (Carol Loomis)，邮箱 ",[2114,2191,2193],{"href":2192},"mailto:loomisbrk@gmail.com","loomisbrk@gmail.com","；CNBC的贝基·奎克 (Becky Quick)，邮箱 ",[2114,2196,2198],{"href":2197},"mailto:BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","；以及《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金 (Andrew Ross Sorkin)，邮箱 ",[2114,2201,2203],{"href":2202},"mailto:arsorkin@nytimes.com","arsorkin@nytimes.com",[14,2205,2206],{},"每位记者将从收到的问题中挑选他或她认为对股东最有趣、最重要的6个。记者们告诉我，如果你的问题简洁明了、不要在最后时刻才提交、与伯克希尔相关、每封邮件不超过两个问题，那么被选中的概率最高。（请在邮件中注明，如果你的问题被选中，是否希望提及你的姓名。）",[14,2208,2209,2210,2213],{},"另外还有三位跟踪伯克希尔的分析师会提出一系列问题。今年的保险行业专家是道林合伙公司 (Dowling & Partners) 的加里·兰瑟姆 (Gary Ransom)。有关非保险业务的问题将由鲁安·坎尼夫·戈德法布 (Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb) 的乔纳森·布兰特 (Jonathan Brandt) 和晨星公司 (Morningstar) 的格雷格·沃伦 (Gregg Warren) 提出。既然这是一场",[831,2211,2212],{},"股东","大会，我们希望分析师和记者提出的问题能够加深股东们对自身投资的理解和认识。",[14,2215,2216],{},"查理和我对即将面对的问题连一点线索都不会提前知道。有些问题肯定很刁钻，但这正是我们喜欢的方式。不允许一人连问多题；我们希望让尽可能多的提问者有机会向我们发难。我们的目标是让你们离开会场时比来的时候更了解伯克希尔，同时在奥马哈度过一段愉快的时光。",[14,2218,2219],{},"总体而言，我们预计至少会有54个问题——每位分析师和记者6个，观众18个。第54个问题之后，所有问题都来自现场观众。查理和我经常在3:30之前就回答了超过60个。",[14,2221,2222],{},"来自观众的提问者将通过11次抽签选出，抽签于年会当日上午8:15举行。安装在主会场和溢出会场的11个麦克风，每个对应一次抽签。",[14,2224,2225],{},"说到让我们的股东增长知识，让我提醒你们，查理和我认为所有股东都应当同时获取伯克希尔发布的新信息，如果可能的话，还应有充足的时间在交易发生之前消化和分析这些信息。这就是为什么我们尽量在周五晚些时候或周六早上发布财务数据，也是为什么我们的年度股东大会总是安排在周六（这一天也有助于缓解交通和停车问题）。",[14,2227,2228],{},"我们不会像通常做法那样与大型机构投资者或分析师进行一对一的沟通，我们对待他们与对待所有其他股东完全一样。对我们来说，没有谁比那些资源有限却把自己积蓄的很大一部分托付给我们的小股东更重要。当我管理公司日常事务的时候——当我写这封信的时候——我脑海中浮现的就是这些股东的面孔。",[811,2230],{},[14,2232,2233],{},"出于充分的理由，我经常赞扬我们经营经理人的成就。他们是真正的全明星球员，经营各自的业务就像那是自己家族拥有的唯一资产。我还相信，在大型上市公司的世界里，你找不到比我们的经理人更具股东导向思维的管理团队了。我们的大多数经理人在经济上完全不必工作。打出商业上的”本垒打”给他们带来的满足感，一点都不亚于薪水本身。",[14,2235,2236,2237,2239],{},"如果经理人（或董事）持有伯克希尔股票——而且许多人确实持有——那些股票要么是他们从公开市场购买的，要么是他们把自己的公司卖给我们时收到的。然而，",[831,2238,1617],{},"能在不承担下跌风险的情况下享受持股的收益。我们的董事和经理人与你们站在同一条船上。",[14,2241,2242],{},"我们的总部团队一如既往地出色。这个团队高效处理着大量美国证券交易委员会（SEC）和其他监管要求，提交了32,700页的联邦所得税申报表，监督3,935份州税申报表的提交，回复无数股东和媒体的询问，出版年度报告，为全美最大的年度股东大会做准备，协调董事会活动，核实这封信的真实性——还有许许多多其他事务。",[14,2244,2245],{},"他们欢快而高效地处理着所有这些工作，让我的生活轻松愉快。他们的付出远不止于伯克希尔的日常事务：比如去年，他们接待了40所大学（从200所申请者中筛选出来的）送到奥马哈来跟我进行问答活动的学生。他们还处理我收到的各种各样的请求，安排我的行程，甚至给我买汉堡和薯条当午餐（当然要蘸亨氏番茄酱）。此外，他们还在年度股东大会上哪里需要就去哪里帮忙，毫无怨言。他们为在伯克希尔工作而自豪，我也为他们感到骄傲。",[811,2247],{},[14,2249,2250],{},"我把最好的留到了最后。2018年初，伯克希尔董事会选举阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 和格雷格·阿贝尔 (Greg Abel) 为伯克希尔董事，并同时任命两人为副董事长。阿吉特现在负责保险业务，格雷格负责监管其余所有业务。查理和我将专注于投资和资本配置。",[14,2252,2253],{},"你和我都很幸运，有阿吉特和格雷格为我们效力。他们两位都在伯克希尔工作了数十年，伯克希尔的血液流淌在他们的血管里。每个人的品格都与他的才能相匹配。这就说明了一切。",[14,2255,2256],{},"5月5日来奥马哈吧——来这个资本主义的摇篮——与伯克希尔大家庭见面。我们所有人都期待你们的到来。",[14,2258,2259],{},"2018年2月24日",[14,2261,2262],{},"沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren E. Buffett)",[14,2264,2265],{},"董事会主席",{"title":2267,"searchDepth":2268,"depth":2268,"links":2269},"",2,[2270,2272,2273,2274,2275],{"id":874,"depth":2271,"text":874},3,{"id":971,"depth":2271,"text":971},{"id":1169,"depth":2271,"text":1169},{"id":1650,"depth":2271,"text":1651},{"id":2109,"depth":2271,"text":2109},"致股东信",null,"2017年巴菲特致股东信，分析投资收益、股票投资组合、保险业务表现及美国经济","md",{},true,90,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":2278},"2017 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","aOyPmEwhqEYB4rCVHHEcyZaaLNr7gzq0K_kBIBs1td8","buffett",[2291,2296,2300,2304,2307,2310,2313,2316,2319,2322,2326,2329,2332,2336,2339,2342,2346,2349,2352,2356,2359,2362,2366,2369,2372,2376,2379,2382,2386,2389,2392,2396,2399,2402,2406,2409,2412,2416,2419,2422,2426,2429,2432,2436,2439,2442,2446,2449,2452,2456,2459,2462,2466,2469,2472,2476,2479,2482,2486,2489,2492,2496,2499,2502,2506,2509,2512,2516,2519,2522,2526,2529,2532,2536,2539,2542,2546,2549,2552,2556,2559,2562,2566,2569,2572,2576,2579,2582,2586,2589,2592,2596,2599,2602,2606,2609,2612,2616,2619,2622,2626,2629,2633,2636,2640,2643,2647,2650,2654,2657,2661,2664,2668,2671,2675,2678,2682,2685,2689,2692,2696,2699,2703,2706,2710,2713,2717,2720,2724,2727,2731,2734,2738,2741,2745,2748,2752,2755,2759,2762,2766,2769,2773,2776,2780,2783,2787,2790,2794,2797,2801,2804,2808,2811,2815,2818,2822,2825,2829,2832,2836,2839,2843,2846,2850,2853,2857,2860,2864,2867,2871,2874,2878,2881,2885,2888,2892,2895,2899,2902,2906,2909,2913,2916,2920,2923,2927,2930,2934,2937,2941,2944,2948,2951,2955,2958,2962,2965,2969,2972,2976,2979,2983,2986,2990,2993,2997,3000,3004,3007,3011,3014,3015,3018,3022,3025,3029,3032,3036,3039,3043,3046,3050,3053,3057,3060,3064,3067,3071,3074,3078,3081,3085,3088,3092,3096,3100,3104,3108,3112,3116,3120,3124,3128,3132,3136,3140,3144,3148,3152,3156,3160,3164,3168,3172,3176,3180,3184,3188,3192,3196,3200,3204,3208,3212,3216,3220,3224,3228,3232,3236,3240,3244,3248,3252,3256,3260,3264,3268,3272,3276,3280,3284,3288],{"title":2292,"slug":2293,"category":2294,"order":2295},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":2297,"slug":2298,"category":2299,"order":2295},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":2301,"slug":2302,"category":2303,"order":2295},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":2305,"slug":2306,"category":2294,"order":2268},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2308,"slug":2309,"category":2299,"order":2268},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":2311,"slug":2312,"category":2303,"order":2268},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2314,"slug":2315,"category":2294,"order":2271},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2317,"slug":2318,"category":2299,"order":2271},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":2320,"slug":2321,"category":2303,"order":2271},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2323,"slug":2324,"category":2294,"order":2325},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":2327,"slug":2328,"category":2299,"order":2325},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":2330,"slug":2331,"category":2303,"order":2325},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2333,"slug":2334,"category":2294,"order":2335},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":2337,"slug":2338,"category":2299,"order":2335},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":2340,"slug":2341,"category":2303,"order":2335},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2343,"slug":2344,"category":2294,"order":2345},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":2347,"slug":2348,"category":2299,"order":2345},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":2350,"slug":2351,"category":2303,"order":2345},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2353,"slug":2354,"category":2294,"order":2355},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":2357,"slug":2358,"category":2299,"order":2355},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":2360,"slug":2361,"category":2303,"order":2355},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2363,"slug":2364,"category":2294,"order":2365},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":2367,"slug":2368,"category":2299,"order":2365},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2370,"slug":2371,"category":2303,"order":2365},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2373,"slug":2374,"category":2294,"order":2375},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":2377,"slug":2378,"category":2299,"order":2375},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":2380,"slug":2381,"category":2303,"order":2375},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2383,"slug":2384,"category":2294,"order":2385},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":2387,"slug":2388,"category":2299,"order":2385},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":2390,"slug":2391,"category":2303,"order":2385},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2393,"slug":2394,"category":2294,"order":2395},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":2397,"slug":2398,"category":2299,"order":2395},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":2400,"slug":2401,"category":2303,"order":2395},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2403,"slug":2404,"category":2294,"order":2405},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":2407,"slug":2408,"category":2299,"order":2405},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":2410,"slug":2411,"category":2303,"order":2405},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2413,"slug":2414,"category":2294,"order":2415},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":2417,"slug":2418,"category":2299,"order":2415},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 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巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2690,"slug":2691,"category":2299,"order":2688},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2693,"slug":2694,"category":2276,"order":2695},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2697,"slug":2698,"category":2299,"order":2695},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2700,"slug":2701,"category":2276,"order":2702},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2704,"slug":2705,"category":2299,"order":2702},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2707,"slug":2708,"category":2276,"order":2709},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2711,"slug":2712,"category":2299,"order":2709},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2714,"slug":2715,"category":2276,"order":2716},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2718,"slug":2719,"category":2299,"order":2716},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2721,"slug":2722,"category":2276,"order":2723},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2725,"slug":2726,"category":2299,"order":2723},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2728,"slug":2729,"category":2276,"order":2730},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2732,"slug":2733,"category":2299,"order":2730},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2735,"slug":2736,"category":2276,"order":2737},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2739,"slug":2740,"category":2299,"order":2737},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2742,"slug":2743,"category":2276,"order":2744},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2746,"slug":2747,"category":2299,"order":2744},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2749,"slug":2750,"category":2276,"order":2751},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2753,"slug":2754,"category":2299,"order":2751},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2756,"slug":2757,"category":2276,"order":2758},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2760,"slug":2761,"category":2299,"order":2758},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2763,"slug":2764,"category":2276,"order":2765},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2767,"slug":2768,"category":2299,"order":2765},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2770,"slug":2771,"category":2276,"order":2772},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2774,"slug":2775,"category":2299,"order":2772},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2777,"slug":2778,"category":2276,"order":2779},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2781,"slug":2782,"category":2299,"order":2779},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2784,"slug":2785,"category":2276,"order":2786},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2788,"slug":2789,"category":2299,"order":2786},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2791,"slug":2792,"category":2276,"order":2793},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2795,"slug":2796,"category":2299,"order":2793},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2798,"slug":2799,"category":2276,"order":2800},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2802,"slug":2803,"category":2299,"order":2800},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2805,"slug":2806,"category":2276,"order":2807},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2809,"slug":2810,"category":2299,"order":2807},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2812,"slug":2813,"category":2276,"order":2814},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2816,"slug":2817,"category":2299,"order":2814},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2819,"slug":2820,"category":2276,"order":2821},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2823,"slug":2824,"category":2299,"order":2821},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2826,"slug":2827,"category":2276,"order":2828},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2830,"slug":2831,"category":2299,"order":2828},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2833,"slug":2834,"category":2276,"order":2835},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2837,"slug":2838,"category":2299,"order":2835},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2840,"slug":2841,"category":2276,"order":2842},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2844,"slug":2845,"category":2299,"order":2842},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2847,"slug":2848,"category":2276,"order":2849},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2851,"slug":2852,"category":2299,"order":2849},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2854,"slug":2855,"category":2276,"order":2856},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2858,"slug":2859,"category":2299,"order":2856},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2861,"slug":2862,"category":2276,"order":2863},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2865,"slug":2866,"category":2299,"order":2863},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2868,"slug":2869,"category":2276,"order":2870},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2872,"slug":2873,"category":2299,"order":2870},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2875,"slug":2876,"category":2276,"order":2877},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2879,"slug":2880,"category":2299,"order":2877},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2882,"slug":2883,"category":2276,"order":2884},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2886,"slug":2887,"category":2299,"order":2884},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2889,"slug":2890,"category":2276,"order":2891},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2893,"slug":2894,"category":2299,"order":2891},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2896,"slug":2897,"category":2276,"order":2898},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2900,"slug":2901,"category":2299,"order":2898},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2903,"slug":2904,"category":2276,"order":2905},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2907,"slug":2908,"category":2299,"order":2905},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2910,"slug":2911,"category":2276,"order":2912},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2914,"slug":2915,"category":2299,"order":2912},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2917,"slug":2918,"category":2276,"order":2919},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2921,"slug":2922,"category":2299,"order":2919},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2924,"slug":2925,"category":2276,"order":2926},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2928,"slug":2929,"category":2299,"order":2926},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2931,"slug":2932,"category":2276,"order":2933},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2935,"slug":2936,"category":2299,"order":2933},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2938,"slug":2939,"category":2276,"order":2940},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2942,"slug":2943,"category":2299,"order":2940},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2945,"slug":2946,"category":2276,"order":2947},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2949,"slug":2950,"category":2299,"order":2947},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2952,"slug":2953,"category":2276,"order":2954},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2956,"slug":2957,"category":2299,"order":2954},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2959,"slug":2960,"category":2276,"order":2961},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2963,"slug":2964,"category":2299,"order":2961},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2966,"slug":2967,"category":2276,"order":2968},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2970,"slug":2971,"category":2299,"order":2968},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2973,"slug":2974,"category":2276,"order":2975},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2977,"slug":2978,"category":2299,"order":2975},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2980,"slug":2981,"category":2276,"order":2982},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2984,"slug":2985,"category":2299,"order":2982},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2987,"slug":2988,"category":2276,"order":2989},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2991,"slug":2992,"category":2299,"order":2989},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2994,"slug":2995,"category":2276,"order":2996},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2998,"slug":2999,"category":2299,"order":2996},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":3001,"slug":3002,"category":2276,"order":3003},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":3005,"slug":3006,"category":2299,"order":3003},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":3008,"slug":3009,"category":2276,"order":3010},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":3012,"slug":3013,"category":2299,"order":3010},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":5,"slug":2286,"category":2276,"order":2282},{"title":3016,"slug":3017,"category":2299,"order":2282},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":3019,"slug":3020,"category":2276,"order":3021},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":3023,"slug":3024,"category":2299,"order":3021},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":3026,"slug":3027,"category":2276,"order":3028},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":3030,"slug":3031,"category":2299,"order":3028},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3033,"slug":3034,"category":2276,"order":3035},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":3037,"slug":3038,"category":2299,"order":3035},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":3040,"slug":3041,"category":2276,"order":3042},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":3044,"slug":3045,"category":2299,"order":3042},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3047,"slug":3048,"category":2276,"order":3049},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":3051,"slug":3052,"category":2299,"order":3049},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":3054,"slug":3055,"category":2276,"order":3056},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":3058,"slug":3059,"category":2299,"order":3056},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":3061,"slug":3062,"category":2276,"order":3063},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":3065,"slug":3066,"category":2299,"order":3063},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3068,"slug":3069,"category":2276,"order":3070},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":3072,"slug":3073,"category":2299,"order":3070},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3075,"slug":3076,"category":2276,"order":3077},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":3079,"slug":3080,"category":2299,"order":3077},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3082,"slug":3083,"category":2276,"order":3084},"2026 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