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巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":3056},"minimark",[9,13,20,771,785,790,793,796,799,802,810,813,820,823,826,837,844,847,850,855,862,867,870,873,876,887,894,901,904,909,912,917,923,928,931,934,941,944,951,954,957,962,965,968,971,978,981,988,991,998,1001,1018,1029,1036,1047,1050,1052,1059,1062,1065,1068,1075,1081,1084,1091,1093,1100,1103,1109,1116,1171,1185,1192,1199,1205,1220,1227,1238,1252,1254,1257,1260,1266,1269,1271,1274,1280,1283,1286,1289,1291,1298,1305,1319,1325,1328,1330,1333,1336,1339,1445,1448,1451,1454,1465,1472,1475,1478,1481,1487,1490,1493,1496,1710,1712,1811,1814,1818,1821,1826,1976,1978,1983,2082,2087,2090,2097,2100,2103,2106,2109,2112,2115,2117,2124,2127,2130,2133,2135,2138,2141,2144,2147,2150,2153,2159,2162,2165,2168,2171,2174,2177,2180,2186,2189,2196,2199,2202,2204,2207,2210,2213,2340,2345,2348,2351,2656,2661,2664,2667,2670,2673,2676,2679,2682,2689,2692,2695,2700,2703,2706,2709,2714,2717,2720,2723,2730,2733,2736,2741,2744,2747,2750,2753,2756,2759,2761,2764,2767,2777,2780,2783,2786,2789,2792,2799,2802,2813,2816,2819,2825,2828,2831,2834,2837,2839,2842,2845,2852,2855,2858,2865,2876,2879,2882,2893,2896,2899,2906,2913,2916,2919,2922,2925,2928,2931,2934,2937,2940,2943,2946,2956,2959,2962,2965,2968,2971,2974,2977,2980,2987,3004,3007,3010,3013,3016,3019,3021,3024,3027,3030,3041,3044,3047,3050,3053],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2015-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔业绩与标普500指数对比",[21,22,23,42],"table",{},[24,25,26],"thead",{},[27,28,29,33,36,39],"tr",{},[30,31,32],"th",{},"年份",[30,34,35],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比",[30,37,38],{},"伯克希尔每股市值年度变动百分比",[30,40,41],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比",[43,44,45,60,74,88,101,115,129,143,157,171,185,199,213,227,241,255,269,283,297,310,324,338,352,366,379,393,407,421,434,448,462,476,489,503,517,531,545,558,571,584,598,611,624,635,649,663,676,689,703,716,730,743,757],"tbody",{},[27,46,47,51,54,57],{},[48,49,50],"td",{},"1965",[48,52,53],{},"23.8",[48,55,56],{},"49.5",[48,58,59],{},"10.0",[27,61,62,65,68,71],{},[48,63,64],{},"1966",[48,66,67],{},"20.3",[48,69,70],{},"(3.4)",[48,72,73],{},"(11.7)",[27,75,76,79,82,85],{},[48,77,78],{},"1967",[48,80,81],{},"11.0",[48,83,84],{},"13.3",[48,86,87],{},"30.9",[27,89,90,93,96,99],{},[48,91,92],{},"1968",[48,94,95],{},"19.0",[48,97,98],{},"77.8",[48,100,81],{},[27,102,103,106,109,112],{},[48,104,105],{},"1969",[48,107,108],{},"16.2",[48,110,111],{},"19.4",[48,113,114],{},"(8.4)",[27,116,117,120,123,126],{},[48,118,119],{},"1970",[48,121,122],{},"12.0",[48,124,125],{},"(4.6)",[48,127,128],{},"3.9",[27,130,131,134,137,140],{},[48,132,133],{},"1971",[48,135,136],{},"16.4",[48,138,139],{},"80.5",[48,141,142],{},"14.6",[27,144,145,148,151,154],{},[48,146,147],{},"1972",[48,149,150],{},"21.7",[48,152,153],{},"8.1",[48,155,156],{},"18.9",[27,158,159,162,165,168],{},[48,160,161],{},"1973",[48,163,164],{},"4.7",[48,166,167],{},"(2.5)",[48,169,170],{},"(14.8)",[27,172,173,176,179,182],{},[48,174,175],{},"1974",[48,177,178],{},"5.5",[48,180,181],{},"(48.7)",[48,183,184],{},"(26.4)",[27,186,187,190,193,196],{},[48,188,189],{},"1975",[48,191,192],{},"21.9",[48,194,195],{},"2.5",[48,197,198],{},"37.2",[27,200,201,204,207,210],{},[48,202,203],{},"1976",[48,205,206],{},"59.3",[48,208,209],{},"129.3",[48,211,212],{},"23.6",[27,214,215,218,221,224],{},[48,216,217],{},"1977",[48,219,220],{},"31.9",[48,222,223],{},"46.8",[48,225,226],{},"(7.4)",[27,228,229,232,235,238],{},[48,230,231],{},"1978",[48,233,234],{},"24.0",[48,236,237],{},"14.5",[48,239,240],{},"6.4",[27,242,243,246,249,252],{},[48,244,245],{},"1979",[48,247,248],{},"35.7",[48,250,251],{},"102.5",[48,253,254],{},"18.2",[27,256,257,260,263,266],{},[48,258,259],{},"1980",[48,261,262],{},"19.3",[48,264,265],{},"32.8",[48,267,268],{},"32.3",[27,270,271,274,277,280],{},[48,272,273],{},"1981",[48,275,276],{},"31.4",[48,278,279],{},"31.8",[48,281,282],{},"(5.0)",[27,284,285,288,291,294],{},[48,286,287],{},"1982",[48,289,290],{},"40.0",[48,292,293],{},"38.4",[48,295,296],{},"21.4",[27,298,299,302,304,307],{},[48,300,301],{},"1983",[48,303,268],{},[48,305,306],{},"69.0",[48,308,309],{},"22.4",[27,311,312,315,318,321],{},[48,313,314],{},"1984",[48,316,317],{},"13.6",[48,319,320],{},"(2.7)",[48,322,323],{},"6.1",[27,325,326,329,332,335],{},[48,327,328],{},"1985",[48,330,331],{},"48.2",[48,333,334],{},"93.7",[48,336,337],{},"31.6",[27,339,340,343,346,349],{},[48,341,342],{},"1986",[48,344,345],{},"26.1",[48,347,348],{},"14.2",[48,350,351],{},"18.6",[27,353,354,357,360,363],{},[48,355,356],{},"1987",[48,358,359],{},"19.5",[48,361,362],{},"4.6",[48,364,365],{},"5.1",[27,367,368,371,374,376],{},[48,369,370],{},"1988",[48,372,373],{},"20.1",[48,375,206],{},[48,377,378],{},"16.6",[27,380,381,384,387,390],{},[48,382,383],{},"1989",[48,385,386],{},"44.4",[48,388,389],{},"84.6",[48,391,392],{},"31.7",[27,394,395,398,401,404],{},[48,396,397],{},"1990",[48,399,400],{},"7.4",[48,402,403],{},"(23.1)",[48,405,406],{},"(3.1)",[27,408,409,412,415,418],{},[48,410,411],{},"1991",[48,413,414],{},"39.6",[48,416,417],{},"35.6",[48,419,420],{},"30.5",[27,422,423,426,428,431],{},[48,424,425],{},"1992",[48,427,67],{},[48,429,430],{},"29.8",[48,432,433],{},"7.6",[27,435,436,439,442,445],{},[48,437,438],{},"1993",[48,440,441],{},"14.3",[48,443,444],{},"38.9",[48,446,447],{},"10.1",[27,449,450,453,456,459],{},[48,451,452],{},"1994",[48,454,455],{},"13.9",[48,457,458],{},"25.0",[48,460,461],{},"1.3",[27,463,464,467,470,473],{},[48,465,466],{},"1995",[48,468,469],{},"43.1",[48,471,472],{},"57.4",[48,474,475],{},"37.6",[27,477,478,481,483,486],{},[48,479,480],{},"1996",[48,482,279],{},[48,484,485],{},"6.2",[48,487,488],{},"23.0",[27,490,491,494,497,500],{},[48,492,493],{},"1997",[48,495,496],{},"34.1",[48,498,499],{},"34.9",[48,501,502],{},"33.4",[27,504,505,508,511,514],{},[48,506,507],{},"1998",[48,509,510],{},"48.3",[48,512,513],{},"52.2",[48,515,516],{},"28.6",[27,518,519,522,525,528],{},[48,520,521],{},"1999",[48,523,524],{},"0.5",[48,526,527],{},"(19.9)",[48,529,530],{},"21.0",[27,532,533,536,539,542],{},[48,534,535],{},"2000",[48,537,538],{},"6.5",[48,540,541],{},"26.6",[48,543,544],{},"(9.1)",[27,546,547,550,553,555],{},[48,548,549],{},"2001",[48,551,552],{},"(6.2)",[48,554,538],{},[48,556,557],{},"(11.9)",[27,559,560,563,565,568],{},[48,561,562],{},"2002",[48,564,59],{},[48,566,567],{},"(3.8)",[48,569,570],{},"(22.1)",[27,572,573,576,578,581],{},[48,574,575],{},"2003",[48,577,530],{},[48,579,580],{},"15.8",[48,582,583],{},"28.7",[27,585,586,589,592,595],{},[48,587,588],{},"2004",[48,590,591],{},"10.5",[48,593,594],{},"4.3",[48,596,597],{},"10.9",[27,599,600,603,605,608],{},[48,601,602],{},"2005",[48,604,240],{},[48,606,607],{},"0.8",[48,609,610],{},"4.9",[27,612,613,616,619,622],{},[48,614,615],{},"2006",[48,617,618],{},"18.4",[48,620,621],{},"24.1",[48,623,580],{},[27,625,626,629,631,633],{},[48,627,628],{},"2007",[48,630,81],{},[48,632,583],{},[48,634,178],{},[27,636,637,640,643,646],{},[48,638,639],{},"2008",[48,641,642],{},"(9.6)",[48,644,645],{},"(31.8)",[48,647,648],{},"(37.0)",[27,650,651,654,657,660],{},[48,652,653],{},"2009",[48,655,656],{},"19.8",[48,658,659],{},"2.7",[48,661,662],{},"26.5",[27,664,665,668,671,673],{},[48,666,667],{},"2010",[48,669,670],{},"13.0",[48,672,296],{},[48,674,675],{},"15.1",[27,677,678,681,683,686],{},[48,679,680],{},"2011",[48,682,362],{},[48,684,685],{},"(4.7)",[48,687,688],{},"2.1",[27,690,691,694,697,700],{},[48,692,693],{},"2012",[48,695,696],{},"14.4",[48,698,699],{},"16.8",[48,701,702],{},"16.0",[27,704,705,708,710,713],{},[48,706,707],{},"2013",[48,709,254],{},[48,711,712],{},"32.7",[48,714,715],{},"32.4",[27,717,718,721,724,727],{},[48,719,720],{},"2014",[48,722,723],{},"8.3",[48,725,726],{},"27.0",[48,728,729],{},"13.7",[27,731,732,735,737,740],{},[48,733,734],{},"2015",[48,736,240],{},[48,738,739],{},"(12.5)",[48,741,742],{},"1.4",[27,744,745,748,751,754],{},[48,746,747],{},"年复合增长率 – 1965-2015",[48,749,750],{},"19.2%",[48,752,753],{},"20.8%",[48,755,756],{},"9.7%",[27,758,759,762,765,768],{},[48,760,761],{},"累计总收益 – 1964-2015",[48,763,764],{},"798,981%",[48,766,767],{},"1,598,284%",[48,769,770],{},"11,355%",[14,772,773,776,777,780,781,784],{},[17,774,775],{},"注："," 数据为日历年度，但以下年份除外：1965年和1966年，截止9月30日的会计年度；1967年，截止12月31日的15个月。自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市值而非成本与市值孰低法计算所持股权证券的价值。本表中伯克希尔1978年及以前的数据已按新准则重新编制。其他方面的数据均按原始报告数字计算。标普500指数的数据为",[17,778,779],{},"税前","数字，而伯克希尔的数据为",[17,782,783],{},"税后","数字。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司仅仅持有标普500指数并计提相应税款，在指数上涨的年份其收益会落后于标普500，而在指数下跌的年份则会跑赢标普500。长期来看，税收成本会造成相当大的累计滞后。",[786,787,789],"h3",{"id":788},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,791,792],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,794,795],{},"2015年伯克希尔的净资产增长了154亿美元，A\u002FB股每股账面价值增长6.4%。自现任管理层接手的51年以来，每股账面价值已从19美元增长至155,501美元，年复合增长率约为19.2%。(*)",[14,797,798],{},"(*): 本信中所有每股数据均以伯克希尔A股为基准。B股数据为A股的1\u002F1500。",[14,800,801],{},"在前半段时期，伯克希尔的账面价值与真正重要的指标——企业内在价值——大致相当。两个数字之所以接近，是因为当时我们的大部分资源都配置在有价证券上，这些证券会定期按市场报价进行重估（减去出售时将产生的税款）。用华尔街的话说，我们的资产负债表在很大程度上是”按市值计价”的。",[14,803,804,805,809],{},"然而到了1990年代初，我们的重心转向了对企业的完全持有，这一转变削弱了资产负债表数字的参考意义。之所以出现这种脱节，是因为适用于控股子公司的会计准则与评估有价证券的准则存在本质差异。我们持有的”输家”的账面价值会被减记，但”赢家”却",[806,807,808],"em",{},"从不","被向上重估。",[14,811,812],{},"两种情况我们都经历过：我做过一些愚蠢的收购，当初为那些公司支付的经济商誉后来被注销了，这拉低了伯克希尔的账面价值。同时，我们也有一些赢家——其中几个是大赢家——但它们的账面价值却一分钱也没往上调过。",[14,814,815,816,819],{},"随着时间推移，这种不对称的会计处理方式（我们认同这种方式）不可避免地拉大了内在价值与账面价值之间的差距。如今，我们那些”赢家”巨大且不断增长的未入账收益清楚地表明，伯克希尔的内在价值",[806,817,818],{},"远远","超过其账面价值。这就是为什么，如果我们的股价低至账面价值的120%，我们会很乐意回购自家股票。在那个水平上，回购将立即且显著地提高伯克希尔现有股东的每股内在价值。",[14,821,822],{},"我们所持有企业的未入账价值增长，解释了为什么伯克希尔的累计市值增幅——见首页表格——远远超出了账面价值的增幅。短期内这两个指标会出现不规则的波动。比如去年，账面价值的表现就优于市值。但长期来看，市值的增幅应该会延续其超越账面价值增幅的历史趋势。",[786,824,825],{"id":825},"伯克希尔这一年",[14,827,828,829,832,833,836],{},"伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合伙人查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 跟我预计，伯克希尔的",[806,830,831],{},"经常性","盈利能力每年都会增长。（当然，",[806,834,835],{},"实际","的年度收益有时会因美国经济疲软而下降，或者可能因保险业遭遇特大灾害而受挫。）有些年份经常性收益的增幅会比较小，有些年份则会比较大。去年是个好年份。以下是亮点：",[838,839,840],"ul",{},[841,842,843],"li",{},"2015年伯克希尔最重要的进展不在金融领域，虽然它确实带来了更好的收益。在2014年表现不佳之后，我们的BNSF铁路去年大幅改善了对客户的服务。为了实现这一目标，我们当年投入了约58亿美元的资本支出，远超任何一家美国铁路公司的历史纪录，几乎是我们年度折旧费用的三倍。这钱花得值。",[14,845,846],{},"无论是铁路、公路、航空、水运还是管道运输，按收入吨英里计算，BNSF承担了美国约17%的城际货运量。在这方面，我们在美国七大铁路公司（其中两家总部在加拿大）中毫无疑问排名第一，货运量比最接近的竞争对手高出45%。因此，保持一流的服务不仅对我们的托运客户至关重要，对美国经济的平稳运行也同样重要。",[14,848,849],{},"对大多数美国铁路公司来说，2015年是令人失望的一年。总货运吨英里数下滑，利润也在下降。但BNSF的货运量维持不变，税前收益创下68亿美元(2)的新纪录（比2014年增长6.06亿美元）。BNSF的管理者马特·罗斯 (Matt Rose) 和卡尔·艾斯 (Carl Ice) 值得我的感谢，也值得你们的感谢。",[838,851,852],{},[841,853,854],{},"BNSF是我们”五驾马车”中最大的一驾，这个阵容还包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源 (Berkshire Hathaway Energy)、马蒙集团 (Marmon)、路博润 (Lubrizol) 和IMC。这五家公司合在一起——也就是我们五个最赚钱的非保险业务——2015年的税前收益达到131亿美元，比2014年增长6.5亿美元。",[14,856,857,858,861],{},"五驾马车中，2003年我们只拥有伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源，当时的税前收益为3.93亿美元。之后，我们以全现金方式收购了其余四家中的三家。收购BNSF时，我们用现金支付了约70%的对价，剩余部分以发行伯克希尔股票的形式支付，使流通股数量增加了6.1%。换句话说，这五家公司在12年间为伯克希尔带来了127亿美元的年收益增量，而伴随的股权稀释微乎其微。这正合我们的目标——不仅仅是增加总收益，还要确保",[806,859,860],{},"每股","收益也在增长。",[838,863,864],{},[841,865,866],{},"明年，我要向大家介绍的将是”六驾马车”。新成员是精密铸件公司 (Precision Castparts Corp.，简称”PCC”)，一个月前我们以超过320亿美元的现金收购了它。PCC完美契合伯克希尔的商业模式，将大幅提升我们的经常性每股盈利能力。",[14,868,869],{},"在CEO马克·多尼根 (Mark Donegan) 的领导下，PCC已经成为世界顶尖的航空零部件供应商（大部分是原始设备制造，当然备件业务对公司也很重要）。马克的成就让我想起了雅各布·哈帕兹 (Jacob Harpaz) 在IMC——我们出色的以色列切削工具制造商——常施展的魔法。这两个人都能把极其普通的原材料变成非凡的产品，供全球主要制造商使用。他们每个人都是各自领域里的达芬奇。",[14,871,872],{},"PCC的产品通常依据多年期合同交付，是大多数大型飞机的关键部件。公司在13个国家拥有162座工厂，30,466名员工，也为其他行业提供服务。在打造自己的商业帝国过程中，马克完成了许多收购，未来还会有更多。我们期待着他来调配伯克希尔的资本。",[14,874,875],{},"在此表达个人谢意：如果没有我们自己的托德·库姆斯 (Todd Combs) 的投入和协助，PCC的收购不可能完成。几年前是他让我注意到这家公司，之后一直帮我了解这门生意和马克这个人。虽然托德和泰德·韦施勒 (Ted Weschler) 主要是投资经理——他们各自为我们管理约90亿美元——但他们二人也愉快而能干地在其他方面为伯克希尔创造了重大价值。雇用这两个人是我做过的最好的决定之一。",[838,877,878,881,884],{},[841,879,880],{},"加上PCC的收购，如果旗下公司作为独立企业来看的话，伯克希尔将拥有财富500强中的10.25家。（我们持有的27%卡夫亨氏 (Kraft Heinz) 股权就是那0.25。）这意味着还有将近98%的美国企业巨头尚未给我们打电话。接线员已经就位。",[841,882,883],{},"我们旗下数十家规模较小的非保险业务去年赚了57亿美元，高于2014年的51亿美元。其中有一家去年赚了超过7亿美元，两家赚了4亿到7亿美元之间，七家赚了2.5亿到4亿美元之间，六家赚了1亿到2.5亿美元之间，还有十一家赚了5,000万到1亿美元之间。我们爱它们所有人：随着时间推移，这个企业群的数量和收益都会不断增长。",[841,885,886],{},"当你听到有人谈论美国摇摇欲坠的基础设施时，请放心，他们说的不是伯克希尔。我们去年在不动产、厂房和设备上投入了160亿美元，其中86%部署在美国。",[14,888,889,890,893],{},"前面我已经说过BNSF在2015年创纪录的资本支出。",[806,891,892],{},"每","年年底，我们铁路的硬件设施都会比12个月前有所改善。",[14,895,896,897,900],{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源（简称”BHE”）的故事也类似。该公司在可再生能源上已投资160亿美元，现在拥有美国7%的风力发电和6%的太阳能发电。事实上，我们旗下受监管公用事业所拥有和运营的4,423兆瓦风力发电，是第二名公用事业公司的",[806,898,899],{},"六","倍。",[14,902,903],{},"还没完。去年BHE为支持巴黎气候变化大会做出了发展可再生能源的重大承诺。兑现这些承诺是明智之举——对环境如此，对伯克希尔的经济利益亦然。",[838,905,906],{},[841,907,908],{},"伯克希尔庞大且不断增长的保险业务在2015年再次实现承保盈利——这已经是连续第13年——同时浮存金也在增加。在这些年里，我们的浮存金——不属于我们、但可以为伯克希尔利益而投资的资金——从410亿美元增长到了880亿美元。虽然浮存金的规模和增长都没有反映在伯克希尔的报告收益中，但浮存金通过我们持有的资产产生了可观的投资收益。",[14,910,911],{},"同时，13年间我们的承保盈利累计达到260亿美元，其中2015年贡献了18亿美元。毫无疑问，伯克希尔最大的未入账财富就在保险业务之中。我们用了48年时间打造了这个多层次的业务体系，它无法被复制。",[838,913,914],{},[841,915,916],{},"在查理跟我寻找新的收购目标的同时，我们旗下众多子公司也在持续进行补强收购。去年我们达成了29笔补强交易，预计总耗资6.34亿美元，单笔收购金额从30万美元到1.43亿美元不等。",[14,918,919,922],{},[806,920,921],{},"如果","价格合理，查理跟我是鼓励补强收购的。（提供给我们的大部分交易报价显然不合理。）这些收购把资本配置到与现有业务契合的运营中，由我们的专业经理人团队管理。这意味着我们不用增加额外的工作，伯克希尔的收益却增加了——这种组合我们觉得相当有吸引力。未来几年我们会完成更多的补强收购。",[838,924,925],{},[841,926,927],{},"去年我们与豪尔赫·保罗·雷曼 (Jorge Paulo Lemann)、亚历克斯·贝林 (Alex Behring) 和贝尔纳多·赫斯 (Bernardo Hees) 的亨氏 (Heinz) 合伙生意通过与卡夫 (Kraft) 合并，规模扩大了一倍多。在这笔交易之前，我们持有亨氏约53%的股份，成本为42.5亿美元。现在我们持有3.254亿股卡夫亨氏（约27%），成本为98亿美元。新公司年销售额为270亿美元，可以为你提供亨氏番茄酱或芥末酱来搭配卡夫旗下的Oscar Mayer热狗。再加一杯可乐，你就在享用我最爱的一餐了。（我们会在年会上开来Oscar Mayer热狗车——带上你的孩子们。）",[14,929,930],{},"尽管我们并没有出售卡夫亨氏的股票，但通用会计准则（GAAP）要求我们在合并完成后记录68亿美元的投资增值。这就导致卡夫亨氏在我们资产负债表上的价值比我们的成本高出数十亿美元，又比市值低了数十亿美元——这种结果只有会计师才会喜欢。",[14,932,933],{},"伯克希尔还持有卡夫亨氏的优先股，每年支付给我们7.2亿美元，在我们的资产负债表上列示为77亿美元。这批优先股几乎可以确定将在今年6月（条款允许的最早赎回日期）以83.2亿美元被赎回。这对卡夫亨氏是个好消息，但对伯克希尔却是个坏消息。",[14,935,936,937,940],{},"豪尔赫·保罗和他的伙伴们是再好不过的合作伙伴了。我们和他们一样，热衷于买入、打造并",[806,938,939],{},"长期持有","满足人们基本需求和欲望的大型企业。不过在追求这个目标的过程中，我们走的是不同的路。",[14,942,943],{},"他们的方法——他们在这方面取得了非凡的成功——是收购那些存在大量可以砍掉的冗余成本的公司，然后非常迅速地采取行动完成改造。他们的行动大幅提升了生产力，而生产力正是过去240年来美国经济增长的最重要驱动力。如果每小时工作不能产出更多人们需要的商品和服务——这就是衡量生产力的标准——经济必然停滞不前。在美国的许多企业里，生产力确实存在巨大的提升空间，这一事实为豪尔赫·保罗和他的团队提供了机会。",[14,945,946,947,950],{},"在伯克希尔，我们同样渴望效率、厌恶官僚主义。不过为了实现目标，我们采取的是另一种路径——强调从一开始就",[806,948,949],{},"避免","机构臃肿，收购像PCC这样长期由注重成本和高效运营的管理者经营的企业。收购之后，我们的角色仅仅是营造一个环境，让这些CEO——以及他们那些通常志同道合的继任者——既能最大限度地发挥管理效能，又能从工作中获得乐趣。（这种放手的风格，遵循了一句著名的芒格主义：“如果你想保证自己一辈子过得痛苦，那就带着改变对方行为的目的去结婚吧。”）",[14,952,953],{},"我们将继续以极端——实际上几乎闻所未闻的——分权方式运营伯克希尔。但我们也会寻找机会与豪尔赫·保罗合作，要么像他的团队收购蒂姆·霍顿 (Tim Horton’s) 时那样仅作为融资方，要么像亨氏项目一样既出资又出股权。我们偶尔也会与其他人合作，就像我们在Berkadia成功做过的那样。",[14,955,956],{},"不过，伯克希尔只会参与友好收购。诚然，某些敌意收购是有道理的：有些CEO忘了自己应该为谁工作，还有些管理者实在糟糕透顶。无论哪种情况，董事会可能对问题视而不见，或者就是不愿做出必要的改变。这时候就需要引入新面孔了。但我们会把这些”机会”留给别人。在伯克希尔，我们只去受欢迎的地方。",[838,958,959],{},[841,960,961],{},"去年伯克希尔增持了”四大”投资中的每一家——美国运通 (American Express)、可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)、IBM和富国银行 (Wells Fargo)。我们买入了更多的IBM股票（持股比例从2014年底的7.8%提高到8.4%）和富国银行（从9.4%提高到9.8%）。在另外两家——可口可乐和美国运通——则是它们自己的股票回购提高了我们的持股比例。我们在可口可乐的持股从9.2%增至9.3%，在美国运通的持股从14.8%增至15.6%。如果你觉得这些看似微小的变化不重要，不妨算笔账：把四家公司加在一起，我们的持股比例每上升一个百分点，伯克希尔应占的年收益份额就增加约5亿美元。",[14,963,964],{},"这四家被投资企业拥有出色的业务，由既有才华又以股东利益为导向的管理者经营。它们的净有形资产回报率从优秀到惊人不等。在伯克希尔，我们宁愿拥有一家优秀公司的一大部分非控股权益，也不愿拥有一家平庸公司的100%。拥有希望之钻的一小部分，也好过拥有整颗水钻。",[14,966,967],{},"如果以伯克希尔的年末持股来衡量，我们在”四大”2015年收益中应占的份额达到47亿美元。然而，在我们向你们报告的收益中，只包含了它们支付给我们的股息——去年约18亿美元。但请不要搞错：这些公司中我们没有报告的近30亿美元收益，对我们来说和报告了的部分一样有价值。",[14,969,970],{},"我们的被投资企业留存的收益通常用于回购自家股票——这一举措增加了伯克希尔在其未来收益中的份额，而我们不需要掏一分钱。这些公司的留存收益也为其他商业机会提供资金，这些机会通常被证明是有利可图的。所有这些让我们预期，这四大被投资企业的每股收益合计将随时间大幅增长。如果增长确实兑现了，伯克希尔收到的股息会增加，我们的未实现资本利得也会增加。",[14,972,973,974,977],{},"我们在资本配置上的灵活性——我们愿意被动地将大笔资金投入非控股企业——使我们比那些只局限于自己能运营的收购标的的公司拥有显著优势。伍迪·艾伦 (Woody Allen) 曾经解释说，双性恋的好处在于周六晚上找到约会对象的概率翻了一倍。以类似的方式——好吧，不完全一样——我们对经营性收购和被动投资都有胃口，这让我们为伯克希尔源源不断的现金找到明智用途的概率翻了",[806,975,976],{},"一倍","。不仅如此，拥有庞大的有价证券组合还为我们提供了一个资金储备库，当有大型猎象级别的收购机会出现时可以随时动用。",[979,980],"hr",{},[14,982,983,984,987],{},"今年是选举年，候选人停不下来地谈论我们国家的各种问题（当然，这些问题只有",[806,985,986],{},"他们","能解决）。在这种悲观论调的不断渲染下，许多美国人现在认为他们的孩子将来不会过得像他们自己这么好。",[14,989,990],{},"这种看法大错特错：今天在美国出生的婴儿是有史以来最幸运的一代。",[14,992,993,994,997],{},"美国现在的人均GDP约为56,000美元。正如我去年提到的那样——按",[806,995,996],{},"实际购买力","计算——这是我出生的1930年的惊人的六倍，远远超出了我的父母或他们的同代人最疯狂的梦想。今天的美国人本质上并不比1930年的美国人更聪明，也不比那时候更勤奋。相反，他们的工作效率要高得多，因此能生产出多得多的东西。这一强大的趋势肯定会延续下去：美国的经济魔力依然运转良好。",[14,999,1000],{},"一些评论家哀叹我们目前2%的实际GDP年增长率——是的，我们都希望看到更高的数字。但让我们用这个被过分悲叹的2%做一道简单的算术题。你会发现，这个增长率带来的收益是惊人的。",[14,1002,1003,1004,1007,1008,1011,1012,1014,1015,1017],{},"美国人口每年增长约0.8%（出生减去死亡贡献0.5%，净移民贡献0.3%）。因此2%的",[806,1005,1006],{},"总体","增长产生约1.2%的",[806,1009,1010],{},"人均","增长。这听起来可能不怎么样。但一代人的时间——比如说25年——这样的增速会带来",[806,1013,835],{},"人均GDP 34.4%的增长。（复利效应会产生超出25 x 1.2%简单乘法的额外收益。）反过来说，34.4%的增长将为下一代带来惊人的",[806,1016,835],{},"人均GDP增加19,000美元。如果平均分配，一个四口之家每年就多了76,000美元。今天的政客们不必为明天的孩子们哭泣。",[14,1019,1020,1021,1024,1025,1028],{},"事实上，",[806,1022,1023],{},"今天","的大多数孩子过得都很好。我居住的中上产阶级社区的",[806,1026,1027],{},"所有","家庭，日常享受的生活水平都超过了我出生时约翰·D·洛克菲勒 (John D. Rockefeller Sr.) 的生活水准。他无与伦比的财富买不到我们现在习以为常的东西——无论是交通、娱乐、通信还是医疗服务（这仅仅是几个例子）。洛克菲勒当然拥有权力和名望，但他的生活质量却比不上我今天的邻居们。",[14,1030,1031,1032,1035],{},"虽然下一代人可以分享的蛋糕将比今天大",[806,1033,1034],{},"得多","，但怎么分这块蛋糕仍将是激烈争论的焦点。就像现在一样，在工作年龄人群和退休者之间，在健康人和体弱者之间，在继承人和白手起家者之间，在投资者和劳动者之间，尤其是在那些才能被市场高度认可的人和同样正派勤恳、但缺乏市场所青睐技能的美国人之间，都会为增加的产出而争夺。这类冲突自古有之，也将永远存在。国会将是战场，金钱和选票将是武器，游说将继续是一个增长行业。",[14,1037,1038,1039,1042,1043,1046],{},"不过好消息是，即使是”输”的一方，也几乎肯定会在未来享受到——",[806,1040,1041],{},"也理应如此","——远比过去丰富得多的商品和服务。他们所获得的福利在质量上也会有巨大飞跃。在生产人们想要的东西方面，没有什么比市场体系更强大的——在提供人们",[806,1044,1045],{},"还不知道","自己需要什么的方面就更是如此了。我的父母年轻时无法想象会有电视机，我五十多岁的时候也不觉得自己需要一台个人电脑。这两种产品一旦被人们看到它们能做什么，就迅速改变了人们的生活。我现在每周花十个小时在网上打桥牌。而在写这封信的时候，“搜索”功能对我来说价值无穷。（不过我还没准备好用Tinder。）",[14,1048,1049],{},"240年来，跟美国作对一直是个可怕的错误，现在也不是开始的时候。美国的商业与创新这只金鹅将继续下出更多、更大的蛋。美国对社会保障的承诺将被兑现，而且可能会更加慷慨。是的，美国的孩子们将比他们的父辈生活得好得多。",[979,1051],{},[14,1053,1054,1055,1058],{},"有了这股有利的顺风，伯克希尔（当然还有许多其他企业）几乎一定会蓬勃发展。未来接替查理和我的管理者，将按照我们简单的蓝图来构建伯克希尔的每股内在价值：(1) 不断提升旗下众多子公司的基本盈利能力；(2) 通过补强收购进一步增加收益；(3) 受益于被投资企业的增长；(4) 当伯克希尔股价大幅低于内在价值时回购股票；(5) 偶尔进行大型收购。管理层还将努力通过极少（如果有的话）发行伯克希尔股份，来最大化",[806,1056,1057],{},"你们","的成果。",[14,1060,1061],{},"(2): 本信中所有收益数字均为税前数字，除非另有说明。",[786,1063,1064],{"id":1064},"企业内在价值",[14,1066,1067],{},"尽管查理和我经常谈论企业内在价值，但我们无法准确地告诉你伯克希尔股票（事实上，任何其他股票也一样）的内在价值到底是多少。不过，做出一个合理的估计还是可能的。在2010年的年报中，我们列出了三个要素——其中一个是定性的——我们认为它们是评估伯克希尔内在价值的关键。该讨论完整转载于年报的第113-114页。",[14,1069,1070,1071,1074],{},"以下是两个定量要素的最新数据：2015年，我们的每股现金和投资增长了8.3%，达到159,794美元（其中卡夫亨氏持股按市值计算），而来自众多业务的每股收益——",[806,1072,1073],{},"包括保险承保收入","——增长了2.1%，达到每股12,304美元。在第二个要素中，我们剔除了所持投资的股息和利息收入，因为将其包括在内会造成价值的重复计算。在计算收益时，我们扣除了所有公司管理费用、利息、折旧、摊销和少数股东权益，但没有扣除所得税。也就是说，这是税前收益。",[14,1076,1077,1078,1080],{},"我在上一段中用了斜体标注”",[806,1079,1073],{},"”，因为我们是首次将保险承保收入纳入经营收益。当初引入伯克希尔两大定量估值支柱的时候，我们没有这样做，因为当时我们的保险业绩受到巨灾保险的严重影响。如果没有飓风和地震，我们就能大赚一笔。但一场特大灾害就会让我们陷入亏损。出于保守考虑，在计算经营收益时，我们一直假定承保业务长期将收支平衡，在第二个价值要素的年度计算中忽略了所有承保损益。",[14,1082,1083],{},"今天，与十几二十年前相比，我们的保险业绩可能更加稳定，因为我们已经淡化了巨灾保险，并大幅拓展了基础业务线。去年，承保收入为上文提到的每股12,304美元收益贡献了1,118美元。过去十年，年均承保收入为每股1,434美元，我们预计大多数年份都会盈利。但你们应该认识到，任何给定年份的承保业务都有可能亏损，而且可能亏得不少。",[14,1085,1086,1087,1090],{},"自1970年以来，我们的每股投资以18.9%的年复合增长率增长，我们的收益（",[806,1088,1089],{},"包括","首尾两年的承保收益在内）以23.7%的年复合增长率增长。在随后的45年里，伯克希尔股价的增长速度与我们这两个价值衡量指标的增速非常接近，这并非巧合。查理跟我都希望看到这两个领域都有增长，但我们的首要目标是增加经营收益。",[979,1092],{},[14,1094,1095,1096,1099],{},"现在，让我们来审视运营中的四大板块。它们彼此之间的资产负债表和收入特征存在巨大差异。因此我们将它们作为四个独立业务分别呈现，这也是查理跟我看待它们的方式（尽管把它们放在同一屋檐下拥有重要且",[806,1097,1098],{},"持久的","经济优势）。我们的目的是提供这样的信息：假设我们角色互换，你是作报告的管理者，而我们是不在场的股东，我们会想要了解什么。（别激动，这并不是我们正在考虑的互换。）",[786,1101,1102],{"id":1102},"保险业务",[14,1104,1105,1106,1108],{},"我们先来看保险。自从1967年我们以860万美元收购了国民保险公司 (National Indemnity) 及其姊妹公司国民火灾与海事保险 (National Fire & Marine) 以来，财产意外险 (P\u002FC) 一直是推动我们扩张的引擎。如今，以净资产衡量，国民保险是全球最大的财产意外险公司。更重要的是，它的内在价值",[806,1107,818],{},"超出我们的账面价值。",[14,1110,1111,1112,1115],{},"我们之所以被财产意外险业务吸引，一个原因是它独特的财务特征：保险公司先收取保费，后支付赔款。在极端情况下，比如某些工伤事故的赔偿，支付期限甚至可以长达数十年。这种”先收后付”的模式让财产险公司手握大量资金——我们称之为”浮存金“——这些钱最终会归属他人。但在此期间，保险公司可以用这些浮存金为自己谋利。虽然单笔保单和索赔来来去去，但保险公司持有的浮存金规模通常与保费收入保持相对稳定的关系。因此，随着业务扩张，我们的浮存金也在增长。下表展示了它是",[806,1113,1114],{},"如何","增长的：",[21,1117,1118,1127],{},[24,1119,1120],{},[27,1121,1122,1124],{},[30,1123,32],{},[30,1125,1126],{},"浮存金（百万美元）",[43,1128,1129,1136,1143,1150,1157,1164],{},[27,1130,1131,1133],{},[48,1132,119],{},[48,1134,1135],{},"$ 39",[27,1137,1138,1140],{},[48,1139,259],{},[48,1141,1142],{},"237",[27,1144,1145,1147],{},[48,1146,397],{},[48,1148,1149],{},"1,632",[27,1151,1152,1154],{},[48,1153,535],{},[48,1155,1156],{},"27,871",[27,1158,1159,1161],{},[48,1160,667],{},[48,1162,1163],{},"65,832",[27,1165,1166,1168],{},[48,1167,734],{},[48,1169,1170],{},"87,722",[14,1172,1173,1174,1177,1178,1181,1182,1184],{},"浮存金的进一步增长将越来越难。好的方面是，盖可保险 (GEICO) 和我们几个专业保险业务几乎肯定会保持良好的增速。但国民保险的再保险部门参与了一些逐步到期的存量合同，这些合同的浮存金在逐渐下降。即使我们未来确实经历浮存金的下降，也会是",[806,1175,1176],{},"非常","缓慢的——每年最多不超过3%。我们保险合同的特性决定了，我们",[806,1179,1180],{},"永远","不会面临对我们现金资源构成实质威胁的即期或短期偿付需求。这种结构是刻意设计的，是伯克希尔经济堡垒的关键组成部分。它",[806,1183,1180],{},"不会被放弃。",[14,1186,1187,1188,1191],{},"如果我们的保费收入超过费用和最终赔付的总和，我们就实现了承保盈利，这会为浮存金带来的投资收益锦上添花。当赚到这样的利润时，我们不仅免费使用了资金——更妙的是，我们还因为持有这笔资金而",[806,1189,1190],{},"获得了报酬","。",[14,1193,1194,1195,1198],{},"不幸的是，所有保险公司都渴望实现这一美好结果，导致了激烈的竞争——激烈到整个财产险行业有时会遭受严重的承保",[806,1196,1197],{},"亏损","。这些亏损实际上就是保险行业为持有浮存金而付出的成本。竞争格局几乎可以保证，尽管所有保险公司都享受着浮存金带来的收入，但与美国其他行业相比，保险行业的净有形资产回报率将继续维持低于正常水平的惨淡记录。目前全球面临的长期低利率环境也几乎注定了未来多年浮存金的投资收益将持续下降，从而加剧保险公司的利润压力。未来十年保险行业的业绩很可能不及过去十年，对于那些专注于再保险的公司来说尤其如此。",[14,1200,1201,1202,1204],{},"正如本报告前面提到的，伯克希尔现在已经连续13年实现承保盈利，这一期间税前收益累计达到262亿美元。这绝非偶然：严格的风险评估是我们",[806,1203,1027],{},"保险经理的日常工作重心，他们深知浮存金虽然宝贵，但其好处可能被糟糕的承保结果淹没。所有保险公司嘴上都会说同样的话。在伯克希尔，这是一种信仰，旧约圣经式的信仰。",[14,1206,1207,1208,1211,1212,1215,1216,1219],{},"那么浮存金如何影响内在价值？在计算伯克希尔的",[806,1209,1210],{},"账面","价值时，浮存金",[806,1213,1214],{},"全额","被作为",[806,1217,1218],{},"负债","扣除，好像我们明天就要把它全部付出去而且无法补充一样。但把浮存金严格视为负债是不正确的。它应该被视为一个循环基金。我们每天都在支付过去的索赔和相关费用——2015年向超过600万索赔人支付了高达245亿美元的巨额款项——这减少了浮存金。但同样确定的是，我们每天都在承保新业务，很快就会产生新的索赔，从而补充浮存金。",[14,1221,1222,1223,1226],{},"如果我们的循环浮存金既没有成本又能长期持续——我相信会是这样——那么这项负债的真正价值会",[806,1224,1225],{},"大大","低于会计上的账面负债。欠着1美元但它实际上永远不会离开公司——因为新业务几乎一定会提供替代资金——与欠着1美元明天就要付出去且无法收回，是截然不同的两回事。但根据通用会计准则，这两种负债被一视同仁。",[14,1228,1229,1230,1233,1234,1237],{},"部分抵消这一被夸大负债的，是我们在收购保险公司时产生的155亿美元”商誉“资产，它增加了账面价值。这笔商誉在很大程度上代表了我们为保险业务的浮存金创造能力所支付的价格。然而，商誉的收购成本与其真正价值",[806,1231,1232],{},"毫无","关系。举例来说，如果一家保险公司长期遭受大额承保亏损，无论原始成本多少，账面上的",[806,1235,1236],{},"任何","商誉资产都应被视为一文不值。",[14,1239,1240,1241,1244,1245,1247,1248,1251],{},"幸运的是，伯克希尔不是这样的情况。查理跟我相信，我们保险商誉的真正经济价值——如果要我们收购一家拥有",[806,1242,1243],{},"类似质量","浮存金的保险公司，我们乐意支付的价格——",[806,1246,818],{},"超过其历史账面价值。事实上，我们在保险业务中列示的155亿美元商誉，几乎在2000年就已经全部入账了。但此后我们的浮存金",[806,1249,1250],{},"翻了三倍","。浮存金今天的价值是一个原因——一个巨大的原因——让我们相信伯克希尔的内在商业价值大幅超出其账面价值。",[979,1253],{},[14,1255,1256],{},"伯克希尔颇具吸引力的保险经济学之所以存在，完全是因为我们拥有一批杰出的经理人，他们经营着纪律严明、拥有难以复制的商业模式的业务。让我来介绍几个主要业务单元。",[14,1258,1259],{},"按浮存金规模排在首位的是由阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 管理的伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团。阿吉特专门承保其他人不想碰或没有资本承保的风险。他的业务将承保能力、速度、果断，以及最重要的——头脑——以保险界独一无二的方式结合在一起。然而他从不让伯克希尔暴露在与我们资源不相称的风险之下。",[14,1261,1262,1263,1265],{},"事实上，在规避风险方面，伯克希尔比大多数大型保险公司保守",[806,1264,1034],{},"。举例来说，如果保险业因某种特大灾害遭受2,500亿美元的损失——大约是行业曾经历过的最大损失的三倍——伯克希尔作为一个整体，凭借其众多的收入来源，当年仍然有可能录得可观的利润。我们也将保持现金充沛，并在一个可能已经陷入混乱的保险市场中寻找大量承保机会。与此同时，其他主要保险公司和再保险公司即使不面临破产，也将深陷亏损。",[14,1267,1268],{},"1986年的一个周六，阿吉特走进伯克希尔的办公室，那时他连一天的保险业从业经验都没有。尽管如此，时任保险业务经理的迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg) 把再保险业务的钥匙交给了他。凭这一个举动，迈克就配得上封圣：从那以后，阿吉特为伯克希尔的股东创造了数百亿美元的价值。",[979,1270],{},[14,1272,1273],{},"我们还有另一个再保险业务重镇——由塔德·蒙特罗斯 (Tad Montross) 管理的通用再保险 (General Re)。",[14,1275,1276,1277,1279],{},"归根到底，一个稳健的保险公司必须恪守四条纪律。它必须：(1) 理解",[806,1278,1027],{},"可能导致保单发生赔付的风险敞口；(2) 谨慎评估每种风险实际导致赔付的可能性及其可能造成的成本；(3) 制定合理的保费，使其在平均水平上，扣除预期赔付成本和运营费用后，仍能产生利润；(4) 如果拿不到合适的保费，愿意放弃业务。",[14,1281,1282],{},"许多保险公司能通过前三条考验，却在第四条上栽了跟头。它们就是无法对竞争对手正在积极争抢的业务说不。那句老话——“别人都在做，我们也得做”——在任何行业都会招致麻烦，但在保险业尤其致命。",[14,1284,1285],{},"塔德严格遵守了这四条保险戒律，他的业绩就是证明。在他的领导下，通用再保险的巨额浮存金一直大大优于零成本，我们预计这种情况在平均水平上会持续下去。我们尤其看好通用再保险的国际人寿再保险业务，自1998年我们收购该公司以来，这项业务一直稳健增长且保持盈利。",[14,1287,1288],{},"大家或许还记得，我们收购通用再保险后不久，它就被各种问题困扰，一度让评论家——包括我自己，虽然只是短暂地——以为我犯了一个天大的错误。那一页早已翻过。通用再保险现在是一颗宝石。",[979,1290],{},[14,1292,1293,1294,1297],{},"最后还有盖可保险 (GEICO)，65年前我正是在这家公司学到了保险业的入门功课。盖可保险由托尼·奈斯利 (Tony Nicely) 管理，他18岁加入公司，到2015年已服务了54年。1993年托尼成为CEO，此后公司一直高歌猛进。",[806,1295,1296],{},"没有","比托尼更好的管理者了。在我认识他的40年里，他的每一项决策都恰到好处。",[14,1299,1300,1301,1304],{},"1951年1月我第一次接触到GEICO时，该公司相较于行业巨头们所拥有的巨大成本优势让我惊叹不已。我当时就看得清清楚楚，GEICO将会成功，因为它",[806,1302,1303],{},"值得","成功。",[14,1306,1307,1310,1311,1314,1315,1318],{},[806,1308,1309],{},"没人","喜欢买车险。但几乎所有人都喜欢开车。因此对大多数家庭来说，车险是一笔不小的开支。省钱对他们很重要——而",[806,1312,1313],{},"只有","低成本运营才能让他们省到钱。事实上，阅读这封信的人中至少有40%可以通过在GEICO投保来省钱。所以别读了——",[806,1316,1317],{},"现在就去","——登录geico.com或拨打800-368-2734。",[14,1320,1321,1322,1324],{},"GEICO的成本优势是该公司能够年复一年蚕食市场份额的关键因素。（1995年伯克希尔收购GEICO控股权时，它的市占率是2.5%，到2015年底已经达到11.4%。）GEICO的低成本造就了一条护城河——一条",[806,1323,1098],{},"护城河——竞争对手无法逾越。",[14,1326,1327],{},"与此同时，我们的小壁虎吉祥物（gecko）不知疲倦地告诉美国人，GEICO能为他们省下一大笔钱。我喜欢听这个小家伙传达他的信息：“15分钟可以为你节省15%或更多的车险费用。”（当然，人群中总有爱抱怨的。我的一个朋友说，他很庆幸只有少数几种动物会说话，因为那些会说话的动物似乎除了保险什么话题都不聊。）",[979,1329],{},[14,1331,1332],{},"除了三大保险业务之外，我们还拥有一批规模较小的公司，它们主要承保商业保险。整体而言，这些公司是一个规模庞大、不断增长且价值不菲的业务群，始终保持承保盈利，通常远好于竞争对手的水平。过去13年间，这个群组从承保业务赚了40亿美元——约占其保费收入的13%——同时浮存金从9.43亿美元增长到99亿美元。",[14,1334,1335],{},"不到三年前，我们成立了伯克希尔特种保险 (Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance，简称”BHSI”)，也归入这个群组。我们的第一个决定就是让彼得·伊斯特伍德 (Peter Eastwood) 来掌舵。这是一记全垒打：BHSI的年度保费规模已经达到10亿美元，在彼得的领导下，它注定会成为全球领先的财产意外险公司之一。",[14,1337,1338],{},"以下是按业务部门划分的承保业绩和浮存金摘要：",[21,1340,1341,1359],{},[24,1342,1343],{},[27,1344,1345,1347,1350,1353,1356],{},[30,1346,1102],{},[30,1348,1349],{},"2015承保利润（百万美元）",[30,1351,1352],{},"2014承保利润（百万美元）",[30,1354,1355],{},"2015年末浮存金（百万美元）",[30,1357,1358],{},"2014年末浮存金（百万美元）",[43,1360,1361,1378,1395,1412,1429],{},[27,1362,1363,1366,1369,1372,1375],{},[48,1364,1365],{},"伯克希尔再保险",[48,1367,1368],{},"$ 421",[48,1370,1371],{},"$ 606",[48,1373,1374],{},"$ 44,108",[48,1376,1377],{},"$ 42,454",[27,1379,1380,1383,1386,1389,1392],{},[48,1381,1382],{},"通用再保险",[48,1384,1385],{},"132",[48,1387,1388],{},"277",[48,1390,1391],{},"18,560",[48,1393,1394],{},"19,280",[27,1396,1397,1400,1403,1406,1409],{},[48,1398,1399],{},"GEICO",[48,1401,1402],{},"460",[48,1404,1405],{},"1,159",[48,1407,1408],{},"15,148",[48,1410,1411],{},"13,569",[27,1413,1414,1417,1420,1423,1426],{},[48,1415,1416],{},"其他初级保险",[48,1418,1419],{},"824",[48,1421,1422],{},"626",[48,1424,1425],{},"9,906",[48,1427,1428],{},"8,618",[27,1430,1431,1433,1436,1439,1442],{},[48,1432],{},[48,1434,1435],{},"$ 1,837",[48,1437,1438],{},"$ 2,668",[48,1440,1441],{},"$ 87,722",[48,1443,1444],{},"$ 83,921",[14,1446,1447],{},"伯克希尔杰出的管理者、一流的财务实力，以及受宽阔护城河保护的多元商业模式，在保险界堪称独一无二。这些优势的组合是伯克希尔股东的巨大财富，并且只会随时间而更加珍贵。",[786,1449,1450],{"id":1450},"受监管的资本密集型业务",[14,1452,1453],{},"我们在这一板块有两项主要业务——BNSF铁路和BHE能源，它们拥有与其他业务截然不同的重要特征。因此，我们在这封信中为它们单独设立章节，并在通用会计准则的资产负债表和损益表中将它们的合并财务数据单独列示。去年它们合计贡献了伯克希尔37%的税后经营收益。",[14,1455,1456,1457,1460,1461,1464],{},"这两家公司的一个关键特征是对超长寿命的受监管资产进行了巨额投资，部分资金来源于大额长期债务——这些债务",[806,1458,1459],{},"不","由伯克希尔提供担保。事实上并不需要我们的信用背书，因为每家公司的盈利能力即使在经济极度恶劣的情况下也远超其利息负担。例如去年，在铁路行业不景气的一年里，BNSF的利息保障倍数超过了8:1。（我们对利息保障倍数的定义是息税前利润与利息之比，",[806,1462,1463],{},"而非","EBITDA\u002F利息——后者虽然被广泛使用，但我们认为存在严重缺陷。）",[14,1466,1467,1468,1471],{},"BHE方面，有两个因素保证了它在任何情况下都有能力偿付债务。第一个是所有公用事业的共性：抗衰退的收益，这源于这些公司以垄断方式提供不可或缺的服务。第二个只有少数公用事业公司才拥有：日益广泛的多元化收入来源，使BHE不会被任何单一监管机构严重损害。这些多元化的利润来源，加上拥有一个强大母公司的固有优势，使BHE及其公用事业子公司能够大幅降低债务成本。这一经济优势对我们",[806,1469,1470],{},"和","我们的客户都有利。",[14,1473,1474],{},"BHE和BNSF去年合计在厂房和设备上投资了116亿美元，这是对美国基础设施关键组成部分的巨额投入。只要它们能带来合理的回报，我们就乐于进行这类投资——而在这方面，我们对未来的监管环境抱有很大的信心。",[14,1476,1477],{},"我们的信心既来自过去的经验，也来自一个认知：社会将永远需要在交通和能源领域进行大规模投资。以确保资金持续流向关键项目的方式对待资本提供者，符合政府的自身利益。同时，以赢得监管机构及其所代表的民众认可的方式开展业务，也符合我们自身的利益。",[14,1479,1480],{},"低廉的价格是让各方都满意的有力手段。在爱荷华州，BHE的平均零售电价为每千瓦时6.8美分。该州另一家主要电力公司Alliant的均价为9.5美分。以下是邻近各州的可比行业数据：内布拉斯加州9.0美分，密苏里州9.3美分，伊利诺伊州9.3美分，明尼苏达州9.7美分。全国平均为10.4美分。我们极低的电价为那些收入拮据的客户省下的是真金白银。",[14,1482,1483,1484,1486],{},"对于BNSF来说，由于各大铁路公司在货物种类和平均运输距离上存在巨大差异，价格比较要困难得多。不过，提供一个",[806,1485,1176],{},"粗略的衡量标准：去年我们每吨英里的运费略低于3美分，而美国其他四大铁路公司的客户运输成本至少要高出40%，在4.2美分到5.3美分之间。",[14,1488,1489],{},"BHE和BNSF都是推动环保友好型技术的领先者。在风力发电方面，没有一个州能跟爱荷华州相提并论——去年我们在该州产生的风电兆瓦时数相当于销售给零售客户全部兆瓦时数的47%。（我们已承诺的新增风电项目将在2017年把这一比例提升到58%。）",[14,1491,1492],{},"BNSF跟其他一级铁路公司一样，仅用一加仑柴油就能将一吨货物运输近500英里。这使得铁路的燃油效率是卡车的四倍！而且，铁路运输极大地缓解了公路拥堵——以及由繁忙交通带来的、由纳税人买单的道路维护开支。",[14,1494,1495],{},"以下是BHE和BNSF的主要数据：",[21,1497,1498,1514],{},[24,1499,1500],{},[27,1501,1502,1505,1508,1511],{},[30,1503,1504],{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源（持有89.9%）",[30,1506,1507],{},"2015收益（百万美元）",[30,1509,1510],{},"2014收益（百万美元）",[30,1512,1513],{},"2013收益（百万美元）",[43,1515,1516,1530,1544,1558,1572,1586,1600,1614,1627,1641,1655,1669,1682,1696],{},[27,1517,1518,1521,1524,1527],{},[48,1519,1520],{},"英国公用事业",[48,1522,1523],{},"$ 460",[48,1525,1526],{},"$ 527",[48,1528,1529],{},"$ 362",[27,1531,1532,1535,1538,1541],{},[48,1533,1534],{},"爱荷华公用事业",[48,1536,1537],{},"314",[48,1539,1540],{},"298",[48,1542,1543],{},"230",[27,1545,1546,1549,1552,1555],{},[48,1547,1548],{},"内华达公用事业",[48,1550,1551],{},"586",[48,1553,1554],{},"549",[48,1556,1557],{},"(58)",[27,1559,1560,1563,1566,1569],{},[48,1561,1562],{},"太平洋公司（主要在俄勒冈和犹他）",[48,1564,1565],{},"1,026",[48,1567,1568],{},"1,010",[48,1570,1571],{},"982",[27,1573,1574,1577,1580,1583],{},[48,1575,1576],{},"天然气管道（北方天然气和科恩河）",[48,1578,1579],{},"401",[48,1581,1582],{},"379",[48,1584,1585],{},"385",[27,1587,1588,1591,1594,1597],{},[48,1589,1590],{},"加拿大输电公用事业",[48,1592,1593],{},"170",[48,1595,1596],{},"16",[48,1598,1599],{},"–",[27,1601,1602,1605,1608,1611],{},[48,1603,1604],{},"可再生能源项目",[48,1606,1607],{},"175",[48,1609,1610],{},"194",[48,1612,1613],{},"50",[27,1615,1616,1619,1622,1625],{},[48,1617,1618],{},"HomeServices",[48,1620,1621],{},"191",[48,1623,1624],{},"139",[48,1626,1624],{},[27,1628,1629,1632,1635,1638],{},[48,1630,1631],{},"其他（净额）",[48,1633,1634],{},"27",[48,1636,1637],{},"26",[48,1639,1640],{},"12",[27,1642,1643,1646,1649,1652],{},[48,1644,1645],{},"扣除公司利息和所得税前经营收益",[48,1647,1648],{},"3,350",[48,1650,1651],{},"3,138",[48,1653,1654],{},"2,102",[27,1656,1657,1660,1663,1666],{},[48,1658,1659],{},"利息",[48,1661,1662],{},"499",[48,1664,1665],{},"427",[48,1667,1668],{},"296",[27,1670,1671,1674,1677,1680],{},[48,1672,1673],{},"所得税",[48,1675,1676],{},"481",[48,1678,1679],{},"616",[48,1681,1593],{},[27,1683,1684,1687,1690,1693],{},[48,1685,1686],{},"净收益",[48,1688,1689],{},"$ 2,370",[48,1691,1692],{},"$ 2,095",[48,1694,1695],{},"$ 1,636",[27,1697,1698,1701,1704,1707],{},[48,1699,1700],{},"归属伯克希尔收益",[48,1702,1703],{},"$ 2,132",[48,1705,1706],{},"$ 1,882",[48,1708,1709],{},"$ 1,470",[979,1711],{},[21,1713,1714,1727],{},[24,1715,1716],{},[27,1717,1718,1721,1723,1725],{},[30,1719,1720],{},"BNSF",[30,1722,1507],{},[30,1724,1510],{},[30,1726,1513],{},[43,1728,1729,1743,1757,1771,1785,1798],{},[27,1730,1731,1734,1737,1740],{},[48,1732,1733],{},"收入",[48,1735,1736],{},"$ 21,967",[48,1738,1739],{},"$ 23,239",[48,1741,1742],{},"$ 22,014",[27,1744,1745,1748,1751,1754],{},[48,1746,1747],{},"运营费用",[48,1749,1750],{},"14,264",[48,1752,1753],{},"16,237",[48,1755,1756],{},"15,357",[27,1758,1759,1762,1765,1768],{},[48,1760,1761],{},"扣除利息前经营收益",[48,1763,1764],{},"7,703",[48,1766,1767],{},"7,002",[48,1769,1770],{},"6,657",[27,1772,1773,1776,1779,1782],{},[48,1774,1775],{},"利息（净额）",[48,1777,1778],{},"928",[48,1780,1781],{},"833",[48,1783,1784],{},"729",[27,1786,1787,1789,1792,1795],{},[48,1788,1673],{},[48,1790,1791],{},"2,527",[48,1793,1794],{},"2,300",[48,1796,1797],{},"2,135",[27,1799,1800,1802,1805,1808],{},[48,1801,1686],{},[48,1803,1804],{},"$ 4,248",[48,1806,1807],{},"$ 3,869",[48,1809,1810],{},"$ 3,793",[14,1812,1813],{},"我目前预计BHE的税后收益在2016年将会增长，但BNSF的收益将会下降。",[786,1815,1817],{"id":1816},"制造服务和零售业务","制造、服务和零售业务",[14,1819,1820],{},"我们在伯克希尔这一板块的业务包罗万象。不过先让我们来看看整个集团的合并资产负债表和损益表摘要。",[14,1822,1823],{},[17,1824,1825],{},"资产负债表 2015年12月31日（百万美元）",[21,1827,1828,1843],{},[24,1829,1830],{},[27,1831,1832,1835,1838,1841],{},[30,1833,1834],{},"资产",[30,1836,1837],{},"金额",[30,1839,1840],{},"负债和股东权益",[30,1842,1837],{},[43,1844,1845,1859,1873,1887,1899,1911,1925,1939,1953,1965],{},[27,1846,1847,1850,1853,1856],{},[48,1848,1849],{},"现金及等价物",[48,1851,1852],{},"$ 6,807",[48,1854,1855],{},"应付票据",[48,1857,1858],{},"$ 2,135",[27,1860,1861,1864,1867,1870],{},[48,1862,1863],{},"应收账款及票据",[48,1865,1866],{},"8,886",[48,1868,1869],{},"其他流动负债",[48,1871,1872],{},"10,565",[27,1874,1875,1878,1881,1884],{},[48,1876,1877],{},"存货",[48,1879,1880],{},"11,916",[48,1882,1883],{},"流动负债合计",[48,1885,1886],{},"12,700",[27,1888,1889,1892,1895,1897],{},[48,1890,1891],{},"其他流动资产",[48,1893,1894],{},"970",[48,1896],{},[48,1898],{},[27,1900,1901,1904,1907,1909],{},[48,1902,1903],{},"流动资产合计",[48,1905,1906],{},"28,579",[48,1908],{},[48,1910],{},[27,1912,1913,1916,1919,1922],{},[48,1914,1915],{},"商誉及其他无形资产",[48,1917,1918],{},"30,289",[48,1920,1921],{},"递延税款",[48,1923,1924],{},"3,649",[27,1926,1927,1930,1933,1936],{},[48,1928,1929],{},"固定资产",[48,1931,1932],{},"15,161",[48,1934,1935],{},"长期债务及其他负债",[48,1937,1938],{},"4,767",[27,1940,1941,1944,1947,1950],{},[48,1942,1943],{},"其他资产",[48,1945,1946],{},"4,445",[48,1948,1949],{},"少数股东权益",[48,1951,1952],{},"521",[27,1954,1955,1957,1959,1962],{},[48,1956],{},[48,1958],{},[48,1960,1961],{},"伯克希尔股东权益",[48,1963,1964],{},"56,837",[27,1966,1967,1969,1972,1974],{},[48,1968],{},[48,1970,1971],{},"$ 78,474",[48,1973],{},[48,1975,1971],{},[979,1977],{},[14,1979,1980],{},[17,1981,1982],{},"损益表（百万美元）",[21,1984,1985,1999],{},[24,1986,1987],{},[27,1988,1989,1992,1994,1996],{},[30,1990,1991],{},"（百万美元）",[30,1993,734],{},[30,1995,720],{},[30,1997,1998],{},"2013*",[43,2000,2001,2014,2027,2041,2055,2069],{},[27,2002,2003,2005,2008,2011],{},[48,2004,1733],{},[48,2006,2007],{},"$ 107,825",[48,2009,2010],{},"$ 97,689",[48,2012,2013],{},"$ 93,472",[27,2015,2016,2018,2021,2024],{},[48,2017,1747],{},[48,2019,2020],{},"100,607",[48,2022,2023],{},"90,788",[48,2025,2026],{},"87,208",[27,2028,2029,2032,2035,2038],{},[48,2030,2031],{},"利息费用",[48,2033,2034],{},"103",[48,2036,2037],{},"109",[48,2039,2040],{},"104",[27,2042,2043,2046,2049,2052],{},[48,2044,2045],{},"税前利润",[48,2047,2048],{},"7,115",[48,2050,2051],{},"6,792",[48,2053,2054],{},"6,160",[27,2056,2057,2060,2063,2066],{},[48,2058,2059],{},"所得税及少数股东权益",[48,2061,2062],{},"2,432",[48,2064,2065],{},"2,324",[48,2067,2068],{},"2,283",[27,2070,2071,2073,2076,2079],{},[48,2072,1686],{},[48,2074,2075],{},"$ 4,683",[48,2077,2078],{},"$ 4,468",[48,2080,2081],{},"$ 3,877",[838,2083,2084],{},[841,2085,2086],{},"2013年的收益已经过重编，剔除了马蒙集团的租赁业务，该业务现已纳入金融和金融产品板块的业绩中。",[14,2088,2089],{},"我们符合通用会计准则的收支数据见年报完整版。相比之下，上表中的运营费用是非GAAP数字，因为它们剔除了部分购买法会计调整项目（主要是某些无形资产的摊销）。我们之所以这样呈现数据，是因为查理跟我认为调整后的数字比GAAP数字更准确地反映了表中汇总业务的真实经济费用和利润。",[14,2091,2092,2093,2096],{},"我不会逐一解释所有的调整——有些很小也很冷门——但严肃的投资者应该理解无形资产的不同性质。有些无形资产的价值确实会随时间流逝而消耗殆尽，而另一些则",[806,2094,2095],{},"完全不会","贬值。拿软件来说，这是一个很大的例子，摊销费用是实实在在的支出。相反，对其他一些无形资产——比如客户关系——计提摊销费用，源自购买法会计准则的要求，显然无法反映经济现实。GAAP会计对这两种费用不加区分。也就是说，在计算收益时两者都被列为费用——尽管从投资者的角度看，它们的差别再大不过了。",[14,2098,2099],{},"在我们符合GAAP的完整报告中，已经扣除了11亿美元的摊销费用。我们认为其中约20%是”真实”的，其余的则不是。“非真实”的费用在伯克希尔以前几乎不存在，但由于我们进行了许多收购，它已经变得很可观。随着我们继续收购更多公司，非真实摊销费用几乎肯定会进一步上升。",[14,2101,2102],{},"年报中的表格列示了我们按GAAP计算的无形资产现状。我们目前还有68亿美元的可摊销无形资产，其中41亿美元将在未来五年内摊销完毕。当然，最终每一美元都会被核销。到那时，即使真实收益持平，报告收益也会增加。（这是我留给继任者的一份礼物。）",[14,2104,2105],{},"我建议你们忽略一部分GAAP摊销费用。但这么说我心里还是有点忐忑，因为我知道现在管理层告诉股东忽略某些完全真实的费用已经成了家常便饭。“股票薪酬”就是最恶劣的例子。这个名称本身就说明了一切：“薪酬”。如果薪酬不是费用，那它是什么？而如果真实的、经常性的费用不应被纳入收益计算，那它们到底该放在哪里？",[14,2107,2108],{},"华尔街分析师也经常参与这场闹剧，鹦鹉学舌般地重复管理层喂给他们的那些虚假的、忽略薪酬的”收益”数字。也许这些犯错的分析师确实不懂。也许他们怕得罪管理层、失去”接触”机会。也许他们就是玩世不恭，心想既然大家都在玩这个游戏，何必独善其身。不管他们的理由是什么，这些分析师传播了误导性的数字，是在欺骗投资者，这是有罪的。",[14,2110,2111],{},"折旧费用是一个更复杂的话题，但几乎总是真实的成本。在伯克希尔肯定如此。我希望我们能在保持业务竞争力的同时少花点折旧钱，但51年来我一直没想出怎么做到。事实上，我们铁路业务计提的折旧远远不够维持铁路正常运营所需的资本支出，这种错配导致GAAP收益高于真实经济收益。（所有铁路公司都存在这种收益虚高的情况。）当CEO或投资银行家吹嘘EBITDA这类扣除折旧前的数字作为估值依据时，留意看他们的鼻子是不是在变长。",[14,2113,2114],{},"当然，我们公开报告的收益会继续遵循GAAP。但为了理解真实情况，你们应该记得把我们报告中大部分的摊销费用加回去。同时也应该再减去一些，以反映BNSF折旧计提不足的问题。",[979,2116],{},[14,2118,2119,2120,2123],{},"让我们回到我们众多的制造、服务和零售业务，这些企业销售的产品涵盖了从棒棒糖到喷气飞机的广泛领域。以无杠杆净",[806,2121,2122],{},"有形","资产收益率衡量，其中一些企业的经济效益极为出色，税后利润率从25%一直到远超100%。其他一些企业的回报率也不错，在12%到20%之间。",[14,2125,2126],{},"但也有少数几家——这些是我在资本配置上犯的严重错误——回报率非常低。在大多数情况下，是我对公司或其所在行业的经济动态判断有误，现在我们正在为我的错判付出代价。另一些时候，是我在评估现任或后来任命的经理人的忠诚度或能力时看走了眼。我将来还会犯更多错误，这点你们可以打包票。如果我们运气好的话，这些错误会发生在较小的业务上。",[14,2128,2129],{},"作为一个整体来看，这个集团中的公司是一个优秀的企业。尽管它们持有大量超额现金、仅使用了象征性的杠杆，2015年它们使用的平均净有形资产为256亿美元，税后资本回报率高达18.4%。",[14,2131,2132],{},"当然，一个经济效益极好的企业，如果买入价格太高，也可能是一笔糟糕的投资。我们为大多数业务的净有形资产支付了可观的溢价，这一成本体现在商誉和其他无形资产的庞大数字上。但总体而言，我们在这一板块部署的资本获得了可观的回报。随着金霸王 (Duracell) 和精密铸件的加入，该集团的收益将在2016年大幅增长。",[979,2134],{},[14,2136,2137],{},"这个集团旗下的公司太多了，无法逐一评论。而且它们现有的和潜在的竞争对手都会阅读这份报告。在我们的某些业务中，如果别人知道了我们的数字，可能会对我们不利。因此，对于那些规模不足以对伯克希尔整体估值产生实质影响的业务，我们只披露法规要求的内容。不过你们可以在年报完整版中找到许多业务运营的详细信息。",[786,2139,2140],{"id":2140},"金融和金融产品业务",[14,2142,2143],{},"我们的三项租赁业务由科特商业服务 (CORT，家具租赁)、XTRA（半挂车）和马蒙集团 (Marmon，主要是油罐车，还包括货车、联运罐式集装箱和起重机) 经营。这三家公司都是行业领导者，随着美国经济走强，它们的收益大幅增长。在每一家公司，我们在新设备上的投入都超过了许多竞争对手，这笔投资已经得到了回报。发挥自身实力是伯克希尔经久不衰的优势之一。",[14,2145,2146],{},"凯文·克莱顿 (Kevin Clayton) 再次带领全美第二大住房建筑商克莱顿之家 (Clayton Homes) 交出了行业领先的成绩单。去年该公司售出34,397套住宅，约占美国预制房屋销售总量的45%。相比之下，2003年伯克希尔收购克莱顿时，它在该领域排名第三，市场份额仅为14%。",[14,2148,2149],{},"预制房屋让低收入的美国人实现了拥有住房的美国梦：造价15万美元及以下的新房中，约70%来自预制房屋行业。克莱顿大约46%的住宅通过我们自营的331家门店销售。其余销量主要来自1,395家独立零售商。",[14,2151,2152],{},"克莱顿运营的关键是它128亿美元的抵押贷款组合。我们在预制房屋抵押贷款中约占35%的份额。大约37%的抵押贷款组合来自我们的零售业务，其余主要由独立零售商发起，其中一些卖我们的房子，另一些只卖我们竞争对手的房子。",[14,2154,2155,2156,2158],{},"其他贷款机构来来去去。但在伯克希尔的支持下，克莱顿在2008-2009年恐慌期间始终坚定地为购房者提供融资。事实上在那段时期，克莱顿还用宝贵的资本为那些",[806,2157,1459],{},"销售我们房屋的经销商提供融资。我们当时向高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 和通用电气 (General Electric) 提供的资金登上了头条新闻；伯克希尔默默输送给克莱顿的资金却既让成千上万个家庭拥有了自己的房子，也让许多非克莱顿经销商活了下来。",[14,2160,2161],{},"我们的零售门店始终使用大字体和简洁明了的语言，告知购房者可以选择其他融资渠道——大部分来自当地银行——并且总会让客户签字确认已经收到并阅读了这些信息。",[14,2163,2164],{},"抵押贷款的发放规范对借款人和整个社会都至关重要。毫无疑问，不负责任的住房贷款行为在引发2008年金融恐慌方面扮演了关键角色，进而导致了经济大衰退。在崩溃前的那些年里，一种破坏性的、往往是腐败的抵押贷款制造模式蓬勃发展：(1) 比如在加州的一家机构发放贷款，(2) 然后迅速把贷款卖给比如在纽约的一家投资银行或商业银行，后者将许多抵押贷款打包作为抵押品，制造出令人头晕目眩的复杂抵押贷款支持证券，(3) 再卖给全球各地不知情的机构。",[14,2166,2167],{},"好像这些恶行还不足以造成一场巨大的灾难似的，富有想象力的投资银行家有时还会炮制出第二层切片融资产品，其价值取决于初始发行中最劣质的部分。（当华尔街开始”创新”的时候，你可要当心了！）那段时期，我把这种”层层叠加”的做法形容为：评估一只证券需要投资者读几万页令人昏昏欲睡的文书。",[14,2169,2170],{},"这些融资产品的发起人和打包者在游戏中毫无切身利害关系，完全被交易量和差价驱动。许多住房贷款人也加入了这场狂欢，在贷款申请中公然撒谎，而贷款发起方则睁一只眼闭一只眼。当然，风险最大的信贷产品产生最高的利润。圆滑的华尔街销售人员靠制造客户根本看不懂的产品每年赚取数百万美元。（主要评级机构是否有能力评估那些更复杂的结构，同样值得怀疑。但它们照评不误。）",[14,2172,2173],{},"巴尼·弗兰克 (Barney Frank) 可能是金融恐慌期间最精通金融的国会议员了。他最近评价2010年的《多德-弗兰克法案》(Dodd-Frank Act) 时说：“我在法案实施过程中看到的一个重大缺陷是，监管机构决定不对所有住宅抵押贷款实施风险自留要求。”时至今日，一些立法者和评论家仍在提倡要求贷款发起方保留1%至5%的风险，以使其利益与最终贷款人或抵押贷款担保方保持一致。",[14,2175,2176],{},"在克莱顿，过去和现在，我们的风险自留率都是100%。我们每发放一笔抵押贷款就一直持有它（少数符合政府担保条件的除外）。因此当我们在放贷时犯了错误，就要付出代价——一个远远超过当初房屋销售利润的沉重代价。去年我们不得不对8,444笔预制房屋抵押贷款执行止赎程序，为此付出了1.57亿美元的损失。",[14,2178,2179],{},"我们2015年发放的平均贷款金额仅为59,942美元，对于传统抵押贷款机构来说微不足道，但对于我们许多低收入借款人来说却是一笔沉甸甸的承诺。我们的买家获得一套体面的住房——看看我们在年会上展出的样板房就知道了——每月平均还款额仅为522美元的本息。",[14,2181,2182,2183,2185],{},"当然有些借款人会失业，有些家庭会离婚或遭遇不幸。还有人会刷爆信用卡、搞砸自己的财务。到那时我们会亏钱，借款人也会损失首付款（不过他居住期间的月供可能远低于同等住房的租金）。尽管如此，虽然我们借款人的FICO信用评分和收入都偏低，但他们在经济大衰退期间的还款表现",[806,2184,818],{},"好于许多其他抵押贷款池中那些收入是我们典型借款人数倍的人。",[14,2187,2188],{},"我们的借款人强烈渴望拥有自己的房子，这是我们抵押贷款组合表现良好的一个原因。同样重要的是，我们用浮动利率或短期固定利率债务为大部分贷款组合融资。因此，近年来令人难以置信的低短期利率为我们提供了一个不断扩大的利差——在我们的利息成本与来自固定利率抵押贷款组合的收入之间。（顺便说一句，如果我们仅仅买入长期债券并以某种短期方式融资，也能享受类似的利差。）",[14,2190,2191,2192,2195],{},"通常来说，像我们在克莱顿所做的那样以固定利率长期放贷、用短期资金融资，是有风险的。多年来，一些重要的金融机构就是这样破产的。但在伯克希尔，我们有一个天然的对冲：我们的业务始终保持至少200亿美元的现金等价物，它们",[806,2193,2194],{},"赚取","短期利率的收益。更多时候，我们的短期投资规模在400亿到600亿美元之间。假设我们有600亿美元投资在0.25%或更低的利率上，一旦短期利率大幅上升，带给我们的收益将远远超过为克莱顿130亿美元抵押贷款组合融资所增加的成本。从银行业的术语来说，伯克希尔现在——而且将永远是——高度资产敏感型，因此将受益于利率上升。",[14,2197,2198],{},"让我谈一个令我特别自豪的话题——监管方面的。经济大衰退导致抵押贷款发起人、服务商和打包商受到了极其严格的审查，并被处以数十亿美元的罚款和处罚。",[14,2200,2201],{},"这些审查当然也延伸到了克莱顿——它的抵押贷款业务在贷款发放、服务、催收、广告、合规和内部控制等方面持续接受检查和审核。在联邦层面，我们接受联邦贸易委员会、住房和城市发展部以及消费者金融保护局的监管。数十个州也对我们实施监管。事实上，在过去两年里，联邦和州级各种机构（来自25个州）对克莱顿及其抵押贷款进行了65次检查和审查。结果如何？这一期间我们被罚款总计38,200美元，退还客户704,678美元。此外，尽管我们去年不得不对2.64%的预制房屋抵押贷款执行止赎，但年底时95.4%的借款人按时还款，他们正在朝着拥有一套无债一身轻的房子迈进。",[979,2203],{},[14,2205,2206],{},"截至年底，马蒙集团的铁路车队增加到133,220辆，9月30日从通用电气 (General Electric) 购入25,085辆油罐车后规模大幅增长。如果把我们的车队连成一列火车，车头在奥马哈 (Omaha)，车尾在缅因州的波特兰 (Portland, Maine)。",[14,2208,2209],{},"截至年底，我们97%的铁路车辆处于租赁状态，每年约有15%至17%的车辆需要续租。虽然”油罐车”听起来像是运载原油的容器，但实际上只有约7%的车辆运输原油；化工产品和精炼石油产品才是我们承运的主要品类。当火车从你身边驶过时，留意看看带有UTLX或Procor标志的油罐车。当你发现这些标志时，请挺起胸膛——作为股东，你拥有那辆车的一部分。",[14,2211,2212],{},"以下是该板块的收益摘要：",[21,2214,2215,2227],{},[24,2216,2217],{},[27,2218,2219,2221,2223,2225],{},[30,2220,1991],{},[30,2222,734],{},[30,2224,720],{},[30,2226,707],{},[43,2228,2229,2243,2257,2271,2285,2299,2313,2327],{},[27,2230,2231,2234,2237,2240],{},[48,2232,2233],{},"Berkadia（我们50%的份额）",[48,2235,2236],{},"$ 74",[48,2238,2239],{},"$ 122",[48,2241,2242],{},"$ 80",[27,2244,2245,2248,2251,2254],{},[48,2246,2247],{},"克莱顿",[48,2249,2250],{},"706",[48,2252,2253],{},"558",[48,2255,2256],{},"416",[27,2258,2259,2262,2265,2268],{},[48,2260,2261],{},"CORT",[48,2263,2264],{},"55",[48,2266,2267],{},"49",[48,2269,2270],{},"42",[27,2272,2273,2276,2279,2282],{},[48,2274,2275],{},"马蒙——集装箱和起重机",[48,2277,2278],{},"192",[48,2280,2281],{},"238",[48,2283,2284],{},"226",[27,2286,2287,2290,2293,2296],{},[48,2288,2289],{},"马蒙——铁路车辆",[48,2291,2292],{},"546",[48,2294,2295],{},"442",[48,2297,2298],{},"353",[27,2300,2301,2304,2307,2310],{},[48,2302,2303],{},"XTRA",[48,2305,2306],{},"172",[48,2308,2309],{},"147",[48,2311,2312],{},"125",[27,2314,2315,2318,2321,2324],{},[48,2316,2317],{},"净金融收益*",[48,2319,2320],{},"341",[48,2322,2323],{},"283",[48,2325,2326],{},"322",[27,2328,2329,2331,2334,2337],{},[48,2330],{},[48,2332,2333],{},"$ 2,086",[48,2335,2336],{},"$ 1,839",[48,2338,2339],{},"$ 1,564",[838,2341,2342],{},[841,2343,2344],{},"不含资本利得或损失",[786,2346,2347],{"id":2347},"投资业务",[14,2349,2350],{},"以下是我们截至年末市值最大的15项普通股投资。由于我们是卡夫亨氏控股集团的一部分，其持股按”权益法”核算，因此未列入此表。",[21,2352,2353,2372],{},[24,2354,2355],{},[27,2356,2357,2360,2363,2366,2369],{},[30,2358,2359],{},"股数**",[30,2361,2362],{},"公司",[30,2364,2365],{},"持有公司百分比",[30,2367,2368],{},"截至2015年12月31日的成本*（百万美元）",[30,2370,2371],{},"截至2015年12月31日的市值（百万美元）",[43,2373,2374,2391,2407,2424,2441,2458,2475,2491,2508,2525,2541,2558,2575,2592,2609,2626,2641],{},[27,2375,2376,2379,2382,2385,2388],{},[48,2377,2378],{},"151,610,700",[48,2380,2381],{},"美国运通",[48,2383,2384],{},"15.6",[48,2386,2387],{},"$ 1,287",[48,2389,2390],{},"$ 10,545",[27,2392,2393,2396,2399,2401,2404],{},[48,2394,2395],{},"46,577,138",[48,2397,2398],{},"AT&T",[48,2400,607],{},[48,2402,2403],{},"1,283",[48,2405,2406],{},"1,603",[27,2408,2409,2412,2415,2418,2421],{},[48,2410,2411],{},"7,463,157",[48,2413,2414],{},"Charter通信",[48,2416,2417],{},"6.6",[48,2419,2420],{},"1,202",[48,2422,2423],{},"1,367",[27,2425,2426,2429,2432,2435,2438],{},[48,2427,2428],{},"400,000,000",[48,2430,2431],{},"可口可乐",[48,2433,2434],{},"9.3",[48,2436,2437],{},"1,299",[48,2439,2440],{},"17,184",[27,2442,2443,2446,2449,2452,2455],{},[48,2444,2445],{},"18,513,482",[48,2447,2448],{},"达维塔 (DaVita HealthCare Partners)",[48,2450,2451],{},"8.8",[48,2453,2454],{},"843",[48,2456,2457],{},"1,291",[27,2459,2460,2463,2466,2469,2472],{},[48,2461,2462],{},"22,164,450",[48,2464,2465],{},"迪尔公司 (Deere)",[48,2467,2468],{},"7.0",[48,2470,2471],{},"1,773",[48,2473,2474],{},"1,690",[27,2476,2477,2480,2483,2485,2488],{},[48,2478,2479],{},"11,390,582",[48,2481,2482],{},"高盛",[48,2484,659],{},[48,2486,2487],{},"654",[48,2489,2490],{},"2,053",[27,2492,2493,2496,2499,2502,2505],{},[48,2494,2495],{},"81,033,450",[48,2497,2498],{},"IBM",[48,2500,2501],{},"8.4",[48,2503,2504],{},"13,791",[48,2506,2507],{},"11,152",[27,2509,2510,2513,2516,2519,2522],{},[48,2511,2512],{},"24,669,778",[48,2514,2515],{},"穆迪 (Moody’s)",[48,2517,2518],{},"12.6",[48,2520,2521],{},"248",[48,2523,2524],{},"2,475",[27,2526,2527,2530,2533,2535,2538],{},[48,2528,2529],{},"55,384,926",[48,2531,2532],{},"菲利普斯66 (Phillips 66)",[48,2534,591],{},[48,2536,2537],{},"4,357",[48,2539,2540],{},"4,530",[27,2542,2543,2546,2549,2552,2555],{},[48,2544,2545],{},"52,477,678",[48,2547,2548],{},"宝洁 (Procter & Gamble)",[48,2550,2551],{},"1.9",[48,2553,2554],{},"336",[48,2556,2557],{},"4,683***",[27,2559,2560,2563,2566,2569,2572],{},[48,2561,2562],{},"22,169,930",[48,2564,2565],{},"赛诺菲 (Sanofi)",[48,2567,2568],{},"1.7",[48,2570,2571],{},"1,701",[48,2573,2574],{},"1,896",[27,2576,2577,2580,2583,2586,2589],{},[48,2578,2579],{},"101,859,335",[48,2581,2582],{},"合众银行 (U.S. Bancorp)",[48,2584,2585],{},"5.8",[48,2587,2588],{},"3,239",[48,2590,2591],{},"4,346",[27,2593,2594,2597,2600,2603,2606],{},[48,2595,2596],{},"63,507,544",[48,2598,2599],{},"沃尔玛",[48,2601,2602],{},"2.0",[48,2604,2605],{},"3,593",[48,2607,2608],{},"3,893",[27,2610,2611,2614,2617,2620,2623],{},[48,2612,2613],{},"500,000,000",[48,2615,2616],{},"富国银行",[48,2618,2619],{},"9.8",[48,2621,2622],{},"12,730",[48,2624,2625],{},"27,180",[27,2627,2628,2630,2633,2635,2638],{},[48,2629],{},[48,2631,2632],{},"其他",[48,2634],{},[48,2636,2637],{},"10,276",[48,2639,2640],{},"16,450",[27,2642,2643,2645,2648,2650,2653],{},[48,2644],{},[48,2646,2647],{},"普通股投资合计（按市值计）",[48,2649],{},[48,2651,2652],{},"$ 58,612",[48,2654,2655],{},"$ 112,338",[838,2657,2658],{},[841,2659,2660],{},"这是我们的实际购买价格，也是计税基础；GAAP”成本”在少数情况下有所不同，因为按会计准则要求进行了增值或减值调整。",[14,2662,2663],{},"** 不包括伯克希尔子公司养老基金持有的股份。",[14,2665,2666],{},"*** 按销售合同价持有。",[14,2668,2669],{},"伯克希尔还有一项重大股权持仓未列入上表：在2021年9月之前的任何时刻，我们有权以50亿美元买入美国银行 (Bank of America) 7亿股股票。截至年底，这些股票价值118亿美元。我们很可能在期权到期前行使这一权利，如果我们愿意，还可以用我们持有的50亿美元美国银行6%优先股来支付购买款。与此同时，各位一定要意识到，美国银行实际上是我们的第四大股权投资——也是我们非常看重的一项投资。",[786,2671,2672],{"id":2672},"生产力与繁荣",[14,2674,2675],{},"前面我告诉过你们，我们在卡夫亨氏的合伙人3G资本是怎样铲除低效、从而提高每小时的单位产出的。自1776年建国以来，这种改善一直是美国生活水平取得巨大进步的秘密武器。不幸的是，“秘密”这个词用得确实恰当：太少的美国人真正理解生产力与繁荣之间的关联。要理解这种关联，我们先来看看美国最引人注目的例子——农业，然后再来看三个伯克希尔相关的案例。",[14,2677,2678],{},"1900年，美国的民间劳动力为2,800万人。其中1,100万人——惊人的40%——从事农业。和现在一样，当时最主要的农作物是玉米。约9,000万英亩土地用于种植玉米，每英亩产量为30蒲式耳，年总产量为27亿蒲式耳。",[14,2680,2681],{},"然后拖拉机出现了，一项接一项的创新彻底改变了种植、收割、灌溉、施肥和种子质量等影响农业生产力的关键环节。今天，我们大约用8,500万英亩种植玉米。但生产力的提升让每英亩产量超过了150蒲式耳，年产量达到130亿至140亿蒲式耳。其他农产品也取得了类似的进步。",[14,2683,2684,2685,2688],{},"但产量提升只是故事的一半：产出的大幅增长伴随着农业劳动力数量（“人力投入”）的急剧减少。今天大约只有300万人在农场工作，仅占1.58亿劳动力的微不足道的2%。因此，农业技术的进步使得成千上万的劳动力得以将时间和才智投入其他领域——这种人力资源的再配置使今天的美国人得以享受大量的",[806,2686,2687],{},"非农","商品和服务，没有这种再配置，这些东西都不会存在。",[14,2690,2691],{},"回顾115年的历程，很容易看到农业创新是多么有益——不仅对农民，更广泛地说，对我们整个社会。如果我们扼杀了生产力的提升，就不可能有我们今天所认识的美国。（幸好马匹没有投票权。）然而在日常生活中，大谈”更大的善”对于那些被机器抢了饭碗的农场工人来说恐怕是空话——毕竟机器做那些重复性工作的效率远超人类。我们将在本节稍后进一步探讨生产力提升的这一副作用。",[14,2693,2694],{},"不过现在先来看看三个对伯克希尔子公司产生重大影响的效率提升故事。类似的变革在整个美国商界司空见惯。",[838,2696,2697],{},[841,2698,2699],{},"1947年，二战结束后不久，美国劳动力总数为4,400万。约135万人在铁路行业工作。当年一级铁路的货运量为6,550亿吨英里。",[14,2701,2702],{},"到2014年，一级铁路运输了1.85万亿吨英里的货物，增长了182%，而雇员仅为18.7万人，比1947年减少了86%。（其中一部分变化涉及客运人员，但大部分裁减发生在货运方面。）由于这一惊人的生产力提升，按通胀调整后每吨英里的货运价格自1947年以来下降了55%，按当前美元计算，每年为托运人节省了约900亿美元。",[14,2704,2705],{},"再来看另一组惊人的数据：如果现在搬运货物需要的人手和1947年一样多，我们将需要300多万铁路工人来处理现在的货运量。（当然，那种水平的人工成本会大幅推高运费；因此，实际货运量远不可能发展到今天的规模。）",[14,2707,2708],{},"我们的BNSF铁路于1995年由伯灵顿北方 (Burlington Northern) 和圣太菲 (Santa Fe) 合并而成。1996年，也就是合并后第一个完整运营年度，45,000名员工完成了4.11亿吨英里的货运量。去年的数据是7.02亿吨英里（增长71%）和47,000名员工（仅增长4%）。这一显著的生产力提升对股东和托运人都有利。BNSF的安全记录同样在改善：1996年每20万人工时的可报告工伤事故为2.04起，此后下降了超过50%，降至0.95起。",[838,2710,2711],{},[841,2712,2713],{},"一个多世纪以前，汽车被发明了，围绕它形成了一个为汽车及其驾驶者提供保险的行业。最初，这项业务通过传统的保险代理机构——也就是经营火灾保险的那种机构——承保。这种以代理为中心的模式意味着高额佣金和其他承保费用，约占保费的40%。实力雄厚的地方代理机构当时处于主导地位，因为它们代理着多家保险公司，在佣金谈判时可以让保险公司相互竞价。卡特尔式的定价盛行，除了消费者之外，所有参与方都过得不错。",[14,2715,2716],{},"然后美国人的聪明才智开始发挥作用：来自伊利诺伊州默纳 (Merna) 的农民G·J·梅彻尔 (G. J. Mecherle) 想出了一个主意——建立一支专属销售团队，只销售一家公司的保险产品。他的公司取名为州立农业互助保险公司 (State Farm Mutual)。该公司降低了佣金和费用——这些举措使得降低保费成为可能——很快就崛起为行业巨头。几十年来，州立农业保险在汽车保险和房屋保险领域一直遥遥领先。同样采用直销模式的好事达保险 (Allstate) 长期位居第二。州立农业保险和好事达的承保费用率都在25%左右。",[14,2718,2719],{},"1930年代初，另一个竞争者——联合服务汽车协会 (USAA)，一家类似互助会的公司——开始直接面向军官提供汽车保险。这种营销创新源于军人在基地之间频繁调动时需要随身携带的保险。这类业务对当地保险代理机构毫无吸引力，因为它们想要的是来自固定居民的稳定续保。",[14,2721,2722],{},"事实上，USAA的直销模式比州立农业保险和好事达的成本更低，因此能为客户提供更大的优惠。这让USAA的员工利奥·古德温 (Leo Goodwin) 和莉莲·古德温 (Lillian Goodwin) 夫妇萌生了将直销模式的目标市场从军官扩展到更广泛人群的梦想。1936年，他们以10万美元的资本成立了盖可保险公司 (Government Employees Insurance Co.，后来简称为GEICO)。",[14,2724,2725,2726,2729],{},"他们这只雏鸟在1937年——第一个完整经营年度——做了238,000美元的车险业务。去年GEICO做了226",[806,2727,2728],{},"亿","美元，是USAA的两倍多。（虽说早起的鸟儿有虫吃，但第二只老鼠才能吃到奶酪。）2015年GEICO的承保费用为保费的14.7%，USAA是唯一一家比率更低的大型公司。（GEICO的运营效率与USAA不相上下，但在促进增长的广告上花费更多。）",[14,2731,2732],{},"凭借低成本带来的价格优势，GEICO几年前从好事达手中夺取了车险第二名的位置就不足为奇了。GEICO也在缩小与州立农业保险的差距，尽管后者的保费规模仍然远远领先于我们。2030年8月30日——我的100岁生日——我打算宣布GEICO已经登上了榜首。在你们的日历上标记好。",[14,2734,2735],{},"GEICO雇用了大约34,000人为其1,400万保户提供服务。如果在代理制度下服务同样数量的保户需要多少人，我只能猜测。但我相信这个数字至少是60,000人，包括保险公司本身需要的直接雇员和代理机构所需的人员。",[838,2737,2738],{},[841,2739,2740],{},"在电力公用事业领域，我们的伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源（BHE）正在一个不断变化的经济模式中运营。从历史上看，一家地方电力公司的生存并不取决于它的效率。事实上，一个”松散”的运营方式在财务上也能过得不错。",[14,2742,2743],{},"这是因为公用事业公司通常是某种刚需产品的唯一供应商，并被允许在一定的价格水平上经营，以使其投入的资本获得规定的回报。业内有个笑话：公用事业是唯一一个通过装修老板办公室就能自动多赚钱的行业。而一些CEO确实就是按这个套路来的。",[14,2745,2746],{},"但现在一切都在改变。今天，社会已经形成共识：联邦补贴的风能和太阳能发电符合国家的长远利益。联邦税收抵免被用来落实这一政策，在某些地区使可再生能源在价格上具有竞争力。这些税收抵免或其他政府对可再生能源的扶持措施，最终可能侵蚀现有公用事业的经济效益——特别是那些运营成本较高的公司。BHE长期以来对效率的重视——即便在公司不需要靠它来获得核准收益的时候也是如此——使我们在今天的市场上（更重要的是在明天的市场上）特别有竞争力。",[14,2748,2749],{},"BHE在1999年收购了它的爱荷华公用事业公司。收购前一年，该公用事业雇用了3,700人，发电量为1,900万兆瓦时。现在我们雇用3,500人，发电量为2,900万兆瓦时。这一大幅效率提升使我们得以16年不涨电价，同期行业平均电价上涨了44%。",[14,2751,2752],{},"我们爱荷华公用事业的安全记录也非常出色。2015年每百名员工的工伤事故率为0.79，而我们收购前一年前任所有者的这一数字为7.0。",[14,2754,2755],{},"2006年BHE收购了主要在俄勒冈州和犹他州运营的太平洋电力公司 (PacifiCorp)。收购前一年，该公司雇用6,750人，发电量为5,260万兆瓦时。去年的数字为5,700名员工和5,630万兆瓦时。安全性同样大幅提升，每百名员工的工伤事故率从2005年的3.4下降到2015年的0.85。在安全方面，BHE现在排在行业前十分之一。",[14,2757,2758],{},"这些出色的表现解释了为什么当BHE提议收购某个辖区的公用事业公司时，监管机构会表示欢迎。监管机构知道BHE会带来高效、安全、可靠的运营，同时拥有无限的资本来为任何合理的项目提供资金。（自我们接手以来，BHE从未向伯克希尔支付过一分钱股息。在美国，没有一家投资者持有的公用事业公司能比得上BHE对再投资的热情。）",[979,2760],{},[14,2762,2763],{},"我刚刚详细描述的生产力提升——以及在美国实现的无数其他改善——为社会带来了惊人的效益。这就是为什么我们全体公民已经享受到——并将继续享受到——他们所获得的商品和服务的巨大改善。",[14,2765,2766],{},"但这里面也有另一面。首先，近年来生产力的提升在很大程度上更多地惠及了富人。其次，生产力的提升经常引发剧烈动荡：当创新或新的效率颠覆了原有的世界，资本和劳动者都可能付出惨重代价。",[14,2768,2769,2770,2773,2774,2776],{},"我们不必为资本所有者（无论是私人老板还是千千万万的上市公司股东）流泪。照顾好自己是他们分内的事。正确的决策可以给投资者带来丰厚回报，那",[806,2771,2772],{},"错误的","选择造成的损失自然也该由他们承受。况且，那些广泛分散投资然后安安静静坐着不动的投资者一定会成功：在美国，成功投资的回报总是",[806,2775,818],{},"超过失败投资的损失。（在整个20世纪，道琼斯工业平均指数——某种意义上的指数基金——从66点飙升至11,497点，其成分股公司一直在支付越来越多的股息。）",[14,2778,2779],{},"但长期雇员面临的是一个完全不同的等式。当创新与市场体系相互作用来提高效率时，许多工人可能变成多余的，他们的技能被淘汰。有些人能在别处找到像样的工作；对另一些人来说，这根本不是一个选项。",[14,2781,2782],{},"当低成本竞争把制鞋业推向亚洲时，我们曾经繁荣的德克斯特 (Dexter) 鞋厂倒闭了，导致缅因州一个小镇上的1,600名员工失业。其中许多人的年纪已经过了能再学一门手艺的阶段。我们损失了全部投资——这我们承受得起——但许多工人失去了他们无法替代的生计。同样的场景也在我们最初的新英格兰纺织业务中慢动作般地上演——它苦苦挣扎了20年才最终消亡。举一个令人心酸的例子：我们新贝德福德 (New Bedford) 工厂的许多年长工人只会说葡萄牙语，几乎不懂英语。他们没有备选方案。",[14,2784,2785],{},"应对这类变局的答案不是限制或禁止那些提高生产力的行为。如果我们规定必须永远让1,100万人从事农业，美国人不可能过上今天这样的生活。",[14,2787,2788],{},"正确的解决方案是建立各种安全网，为那些愿意工作但其特定技能被市场力量判定为低价值的人提供体面的生活。（我个人支持改革并扩大劳动所得税抵免，以尽力确保美国这个国家不辜负那些愿意工作的人。）为绝大多数美国人实现不断增长的繁荣，其代价不应该是让不幸者陷入贫困。",[786,2790,2791],{"id":2791},"重要的风险",[14,2793,2794,2795,2798],{},"和所有上市公司一样，SEC要求我们在10-K年报中逐年列示”风险因素”。但我不记得有哪一次，阅读10-K中的”风险”部分帮助我评估了一家企业。这并不是因为列出的风险不真实。真正重要的风险通常是众所周知的。更关键的是，10-K中的风险清单很少有助于评估：(1) 威胁事件实际发生的概率；(2) 一旦发生时可能的损失区间；(3) 可能发生损失的时间。一个50年后才会浮现的威胁也许会成为社会问题，但对今天的投资者来说，它并不是一个",[806,2796,2797],{},"财务","问题。",[14,2800,2801],{},"伯克希尔涉足的行业比我所知的任何公司都多。我们的每项业务都有各自的一系列可能的问题和机会。列举出来容易，评估起来就难了：查理、我和我们各位CEO在计算这些可能性的概率、时间和损失（或收益）时，往往存在很大的分歧。",[14,2803,2804,2805,2808,2809,2812],{},"让我举几个例子。先从一个显而易见的威胁说起：BNSF和其他铁路公司在未来十年",[806,2806,2807],{},"肯定","会失去大量煤炭运输业务。在未来的某个时候——虽然在我看来短期内不会——无人驾驶汽车",[806,2810,2811],{},"可能","会导致GEICO的保费规模萎缩。这一趋势也可能冲击我们的汽车经销商业务。我们旗下纸质报纸的发行量将继续下降，这是我们在收购时就已经预见到的。到目前为止，可再生能源对我们的公用事业业务有利，但情况可能改变，尤其是如果电力存储技术取得实质性突破的话。在线零售正在威胁我们零售商和某些消费品牌的商业模式。这些只是我们面临的负面可能性中的一小部分——但即使是对商业新闻再漫不经心的人，也早已对此了然于胸。",[14,2814,2815],{},"然而，这些问题中没有一个对伯克希尔的长期健康是致命的。1965年我们接手这家公司时，它的风险用一句话就能概括：“我们所有资本所在的北方纺织业务注定将持续亏损并最终消亡。”但那并没有敲响丧钟。我们只是适应了。将来也会如此。",[14,2817,2818],{},"伯克希尔的经理人每天都在思考如何在一个不断变化的世界中更好地竞争。查理跟我同样积极地关注着应该把源源不断的资金部署到哪里。在这方面，我们比那些只在单一行业经营的公司拥有巨大的优势——它们的选项要有限得多。我坚定地相信，伯克希尔拥有足够的资金、人才和文化，能够克服我上面列举的种种逆境——以及更多——并且以越来越强大的盈利能力脱颖而出。",[14,2820,2821,2822,2824],{},"然而，有一个明确存在且持续的威胁，是查理和我都无能为力的。这个对伯克希尔的威胁，也是对我们全体国民的主要威胁：针对美国的一次”成功的”（以侵略者的标准来定义的）网络、生物、核或化学攻击。这是伯克希尔与",[806,2823,1027],{},"美国企业共同面对的风险。",[14,2826,2827],{},"在任何给定的年份里，这种大规模毁灭发生的概率很可能很小。自我递送的那份《华盛顿邮报》以”美国投下第一颗原子弹”为大标题以来，已经过了70多年。随后，我们有过几次擦肩而过，但避免了灾难性的毁灭。对于这个结果，我们要感谢我们的政府——还有运气！",[14,2829,2830],{},"尽管如此，短期内的小概率在长期内趋近于必然。（如果一个事件在给定年份发生的概率仅为1\u002F30，那么它在一个世纪内至少发生一次的概率是96.6%。）更糟糕的是，永远会有人、组织、甚至可能是国家，想要对我们的国家造成最大的伤害。在我的有生之年，他们实现这一目标的手段呈指数级增长。“创新”也有它的阴暗面。",[14,2832,2833],{},"美国公司和投资者没有办法摆脱这种风险。如果美国发生导致大规模破坏的事件，所有股权投资的价值几乎肯定会大幅缩水。",[14,2835,2836],{},"没有人知道”那一天之后”会是什么样。但我认为爱因斯坦 (Einstein) 1949年的那句话至今仍然贴切：“我不知道第三次世界大战将使用什么武器，但第四次世界大战将用木棒和石头来打。”",[979,2838],{},[14,2840,2841],{},"我之所以写这一节，是因为今年的年度股东大会上有一项关于气候变化的股东提案需要表决。提案发起人希望我们就气候变化可能对保险业务带来的风险发表报告，并解释我们如何应对这些威胁。",[14,2843,2844],{},"在我看来，气候变化极有可能给地球带来严重问题。我说”极有可能”而不说”确定”，是因为我不具备相关的科学能力，而且我还清楚地记得大多数”专家”对千年虫问题做出的可怕预言。不过，如果大规模灾害看起来确有可能发生，而迅速行动哪怕只有很小的概率能够阻止危险，那么在这种情况下要求100%的确凿证据才肯行动，那就太愚蠢了——无论是我还是任何人。",[14,2846,2847,2848,2851],{},"这个问题和帕斯卡关于上帝是否存在的赌注 (Pascal’s Wager) 有相似之处。大家可能还记得，帕斯卡 (Pascal) 的论点是：即使上帝存在的概率很小，按照”上帝确实存在”的方式行事也是明智的，因为回报可能是无限的，而不信却可能带来永恒的痛苦。同样的道理，哪怕地球正在走向一场真正的大灾难的概率只有1%，而拖延意味着错过不可逆转的临界点，那么现在不作为就是鲁莽的。我把这叫做诺亚法则：如果方舟对于",[806,2849,2850],{},"生存","可能至关重要，那就从今天开始建造吧，不管天空多么晴朗。",[14,2853,2854],{},"提案发起人认为伯克希尔作为一家大型保险公司、承保各种风险，受到气候变化的威胁尤其大，这是可以理解的。他们可能担心气候变化会导致财产损失大幅攀升。如果我们签发的是10年或20年期的固定价格保单，那么这种担忧确实有道理。但保险保单通常以一年为期签发，每年根据风险变化重新定价。损失概率的增加会迅速转化为保费的提高。",[14,2856,2857],{},"回想1951年，我第一次对GEICO产生浓厚兴趣。当时该公司每份保单的年均赔付约为30美元。想象一下，如果当时我预测2015年每份保单的赔付成本将增至约1,000美元，你会怎么想？你可能会问，如此飙升的损失难道不是灾难性的吗？嗯，不是。",[14,2859,2860,2861,2864],{},"多年来，通货膨胀导致事故中修车和治人的费用大幅增加。但这些增加的成本都及时地反映到了保费中。因此，矛盾的是，赔付成本的上升反而让保险公司变得",[806,2862,2863],{},"更有","价值。如果赔付成本一直不变，伯克希尔今天拥有的将是一家年保费6亿美元的车险公司，而不是一家年保费230亿美元的巨头。",[14,2866,2867,2868,2871,2872,2875],{},"到目前为止，气候变化",[806,2869,2870],{},"并没有","导致飓风或其他保险承保范围内的气象灾害变得更频繁或损失更大。因此，近年来美国的特大灾害再保险费率",[806,2873,2874],{},"持续下降","，这也是我们逐渐退出这块业务的原因。如果特大灾害变得更加昂贵和频繁，其对伯克希尔保险业务的影响虽然远非确定——但很可能是让它规模更大、利润更丰。",[14,2877,2878],{},"作为公民，气候变化让你彻夜难眠完全可以理解。如果你住在低洼地区，搬家也不失为明智之举。但当你仅仅以一家大型保险公司股东的身份思考时，气候变化不应该出现在你的忧虑清单上。",[786,2880,2881],{"id":2881},"年度股东大会",[14,2883,2884,2885,2892],{},"查理和我终于决定迈入21世纪。今年我们的年度大会将进行全球网络直播。请于美国中部夏令时间4月30日（周六）上午9点登录",[2886,2887,2891],"a",{"href":2888,"rel":2889},"https:\u002F\u002Ffinance.yahoo.com\u002Fbrklivestream%E8%A7%82%E7%9C%8B%E3%80%82%E9%9B%85%E8%99%8E",[2890],"nofollow","https:\u002F\u002Ffinance.yahoo.com\u002Fbrklivestream观看。雅虎"," (Yahoo!) 的直播将以半小时的经理人、董事和股东采访开场。然后在9:30，查理和我将开始回答问题。",[14,2894,2895],{},"这一新安排有两个目的。第一，可能会使到场人数持平或略有下降。去年超过40,000人的参会纪录已经让我们的接待能力捉襟见肘了。CenturyLink中心的主会场很快满座之后，分会场也塞满了，最后不得不征用了隔壁奥马哈希尔顿酒店的两个大会议室。尽管Airbnb加大了供应力度，所有大型酒店还是被订购一空。Airbnb对预算有限的来访者尤其有帮助。",[14,2897,2898],{},"我们发起网络直播的第二个原因更为重要。查理92岁了，我也85岁了。如果我们是你在一家小企业的合伙人，负责经营这家企业，你大概会偶尔过来看看，确保我们没有神游太虚幻境。股东们不必为了观察我们的精神面貌而专程赶到奥马哈。（在你们评价的时候，请手下留情：就算在我们最好的状态下，我们看起来也没多大吸引力。）",[14,2900,2901,2902,2905],{},"观众们还可以观摩我们的长寿食谱。会议期间，查理和我每人都会摄入足够多的可口可乐、喜诗软糖和喜诗花生脆，足以满足一个NFL橄榄球前锋一周的热量需求。我们很久以前就发现了一个基本真理：当你",[806,2903,2904],{},"真的","饿了的时候，没什么比胡萝卜和花椰菜更好的了——而且你还想一直保持这种饥饿感。",[14,2907,2908,2909,2912],{},"计划出席的股东们应该在早上7点开门时就到达CenturyLink中心，",[806,2910,2911],{},"开始购物","。卡丽·索瓦 (Carrie Sova) 将再次主持今年的盛会。上个月底她刚刚生了第二个孩子，但这丝毫没有拖慢她的步伐。卡丽沉着冷静、聪明过人，善于激发身边人的最佳表现。来自全国各地的数百名伯克希尔员工和我们总部办公室的全体成员都将前来协助，齐心协力为各位老板带来一个既有趣又充实的周末。",[14,2914,2915],{},"去年我们延长了CenturyLink的购物时间。销售额直线飙升——所以我们自然会延续新的时间表。4月29日（周五）你们可以在中午到下午5点之间购物，周六展位和商店从早上7点开到下午4:30。",[14,2917,2918],{},"周六早晨我们将举行第五届国际报纸投递挑战赛。目标还是一个克莱顿之家的门廊，投掷线距门廊正好35英尺。我十几岁时——那是我唯一一次短暂涉足正经劳动——大约投递过500,000份报纸。所以我觉得自己在这个游戏上还挺厉害的。来挑战我！羞辱我！把我拉下马！报纸有36到42页，你必须自己折叠（不许用橡皮筋）。",[14,2920,2921],{},"比赛从7:15开始，参赛者先进行预赛投掷。被评选为最准确的八名选手——四名12岁以下，四名年龄较大的——将在7:45与我一决高下。年轻的挑战者每人都会获得奖品。但年龄较大的选手必须赢过我才能带走东西。",[14,2923,2924],{},"记得去看看克莱顿之家的样板房。78,900美元就能买到一套，安装在你提供的地块上。往年我们在年会当天做成了不少买卖。凯文·克莱顿会随时拿着订货单在场。",[14,2926,2927],{},"8:30将放映一部伯克希尔新短片。一小时后开始问答环节（中午在CenturyLink的摊位上提供午餐），一直持续到下午3:30。短暂休息后，查理和我将在3:45召开正式的年度会议。这个商务环节通常只持续半小时左右，想要来个”最后一分钟购物”的人可以放心跳过。",[14,2929,2930],{},"你们的购物场地是一个194,300平方英尺的大厅，毗邻会场，伯克希尔旗下数十家子公司的产品将在这里出售。跟那些为自己的展位站台的伯克希尔经理们打个招呼吧。一定要去看看精美的BNSF铁路模型布局，它向我们所有的子公司致敬。你的孩子们（还有你自己！）一定会为之着迷。",[14,2932,2933],{},"今年大厅里还有一个全新的特别展品：世界上最大飞机发动机的全尺寸模型，其中许多关键部件由精密铸件公司制造。真正的发动机重约2万磅，直径10英尺，长22英尺。年会上展出的剖面模型可以让你近距离观察PCC的许多部件——正是它们在为你的航班提供动力。",[14,2935,2936],{},"我们的跑鞋公司布鲁克斯 (Brooks) 将再次在年会上推出特别纪念款跑鞋。买一双之后，周日早上8点穿上它参加我们第四届”伯克希尔5公里”跑步活动，起点在CenturyLink中心。报名参加的详细信息会随你的参会凭证一起寄出。参赛者会发现自己和许多伯克希尔的经理、董事及同事并肩奔跑。（不过查理和我就免了，我们要多睡会儿——软糖和花生脆的后劲太大了。）5K的参与人数逐年增长。帮我们再创一个纪录吧。",[14,2938,2939],{},"购物区的GEICO展位将配备来自全国各地的多位顶级顾问。停下来问个报价。多数情况下，GEICO可以为你提供股东折扣（通常为8%）。我们经营的51个司法管辖区中，有44个允许这一特别优惠。（补充一点：如果你已经享有其他折扣，比如某些团体折扣，则不能叠加使用。）带上你现有保单的详情来比比我们的价格。我们能帮你们中的很多人省下真金白银。把省下的钱花在我们其他产品上吧。",[14,2941,2942],{},"一定要去逛逛”书虫”书店。那里会有大约35本书和DVD，其中包括几本新书。安迪·基尔帕特里克 (Andy Kilpatrick) 将介绍（并很乐意签名售卖）他那本全面报道伯克希尔的著作《永恒的价值》(Of Permanent Value) 的最新版本，共1,304页，重9.8磅。（我对这本书的推荐语是：“薄得离谱。”）也去看看彼得·贝弗林 (Peter Bevelin) 的新书。彼得长期以来一直是伯克希尔非常敏锐的观察者。",[14,2944,2945],{},"我们还将推出一本增加了20页新内容的伯克希尔50周年纪念册，去年年会上它卖出了12,000本。之后卡丽和我又发掘了一些我们觉得很有意思的新资料，比如格罗弗·克利夫兰 (Grover Cleveland) 写给爱德华·巴特勒 (Edward Butler) 的几封非常私人的信件——巴特勒是他的朋友，也是《布法罗新闻报》(The Buffalo News) 当时的出版人。原版中的所有内容都没有改动或删除，价格仍为20美元。查理和我将联合签名100本，随机放置在年会上出售的5,000本之中。",[14,2947,2948,2949,2952,2953,2955],{},"我的朋友菲尔·贝斯 (Phil Beuth) 写了一本自传《Limping on Water》，记述了他在大都会通信 (Capital Cities Communications) 的职业生涯，其中有大量关于其领导人汤姆·墨菲 (Tom Murphy) 和丹·伯克 (Dan Burke) 的故事。无论从",[806,2950,2951],{},"取得了什么","成就还是",[806,2954,1114],{},"取得的角度来看，这二人都是查理和我见过的最顶尖的管理搭档。你一生能成为什么样的人，很大程度上取决于你选择崇拜和学习的对象。以汤姆·墨菲为楷模，你就不需要第二个榜样了。",[14,2957,2958],{},"最后，杰里米·米勒 (Jeremy Miller) 写了《巴菲特的基本原则》(Warren Buffett’s Ground Rules) 一书，将在年会上首发。米勒先生出色地研究和剖析了巴菲特合伙公司 (Buffett Partnership Ltd.) 的运作，并解释了伯克希尔的文化是如何从BPL的根基上演化而来的。如果你对投资理论和实践着迷，你会喜欢这本书的。",[14,2960,2961],{},"随本报告附寄的代理材料中有一份附件，说明了如何获取参加大会及其他活动所需的凭证。航空公司有时会在伯克希尔周末期间提高票价。如果你从很远的地方来，不妨比较一下飞堪萨斯城和飞奥马哈的费用。两座城市之间车程约2.5小时，飞堪萨斯城可能帮你省下不少钱，尤其是如果你原本打算在奥马哈租车的话。一对夫妇可能节省1,000美元甚至更多。把省下的钱花在我们这里吧。",[14,2963,2964],{},"在72街道奇 (Dodge) 和太平洋 (Pacific) 之间、占地77英亩的内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)，我们将再次举行”伯克希尔周末”折扣活动。去年在年会那一周，该店创下了44,239,493美元的营业记录。如果你把这个数字告诉其他零售商，他们不会相信的。（内布拉斯加家具店奥马哈店——除了我们新开的达拉斯店之外，全美销量最高的家居商场——一个普通周的营业额大约为900万美元。）",[14,2966,2967],{},"要享受内布拉斯加家具店的伯克希尔折扣，你必须在4月26日（周二）至5月2日（周一）之间购买（含首尾两天），并出示你的参会凭证。在特惠期间，有几个知名品牌制造商也将参与打折——它们平时有铁板钉钉的不打折规矩，但本着股东周末的特殊精神，为你们破了例。我们感谢它们的配合。“伯克希尔周末”期间，内布拉斯加家具店周一至周五上午10点至晚上9点营业，周六上午10点至晚上9:30，周日上午10点至晚上8点。周六下午5:30至8:00，内布拉斯加家具店将举办野餐活动，欢迎你们全体参加。",[14,2969,2970],{},"波仙珠宝店 (Borsheim’s) 将再次举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是4月29日（周五）下午6点至9点的鸡尾酒会。第二场大型活动在5月1日（周日）上午9点至下午4点举行。周六波仙将营业至下午6点。去年的周五至周日期间，在营业时间里每15秒就开出一张销售单。",[14,2972,2973],{},"整个周末波仙珠宝店将迎来大量客流。因此，为了你们的方便，股东优惠价将从4月25日（周一）延续到5月7日（周六）。在此期间，请出示你的参会凭证或显示你持有我们股票的经纪账户对账单来验证股东身份。",[14,2975,2976],{},"周日在波仙珠宝店外面的商场，来自达拉斯的杰出魔术师诺曼·贝克 (Norman Beck) 将上演令人眼花缭乱的魔术。在上层，世界顶级桥牌高手鲍勃·哈曼 (Bob Hamman) 和莎伦·奥斯伯格 (Sharon Osberg) 将在周日下午与股东们切磋牌技。我会加入他们的牌局，也希望能把阿吉特和查理拉来。",[14,2978,2979],{},"我的朋友邢延华 (Ariel Hsing) 周日也会来到商场，在乒乓球桌前接受挑战。我认识她时她才9岁，即便那时候我也赢不了她一分。她已经代表美国参加了2012年奥运会，现在是普林斯顿大学三年级学生。如果你不怕丢脸，下午1点来和她切磋一下球技。比尔·盖茨 (Bill Gates) 和我将率先上场，试着先消耗消耗她的体力。",[14,2981,2982,2983,2986],{},"5月1日（周日），格拉特牛排馆 (Gorat’s) 将再次专门为伯克希尔股东开放，营业时间从下午1点到晚上10点。请在4月1日拨打402-551-3733预订座位（",[806,2984,2985],{},"不要提前打","）。至于我另一家最喜欢的餐厅皮科洛斯 (Piccolo’s)，我遗憾地告诉大家，它已经关门了。",[14,2988,2989,2990,2994,2995,2999,3000,1191],{},"我们将再次邀请同样的三位财经记者主持大会的问答环节，向查理和我提出股东通过电子邮件提交的问题。三位记者及其邮箱是：卡罗尔·卢米斯 (Carol Loomis)，当代最杰出的商业记者，邮箱",[2886,2991,2993],{"href":2992},"mailto:loomisbrk@gmail.com","loomisbrk@gmail.com","；CNBC的贝基·奎克 (Becky Quick)，邮箱",[2886,2996,2998],{"href":2997},"mailto:BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","；《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索金 (Andrew Ross Sorkin)，邮箱",[2886,3001,3003],{"href":3002},"mailto:arsorkin@nytimes.com","arsorkin@nytimes.com",[14,3005,3006],{},"每位记者会从收到的问题中选出他们认为最有趣、最重要的六个。记者们告诉我，如果你的问题简洁、不是在最后一刻才发送、与伯克希尔相关、每封邮件不超过两个问题，你被选中的概率最高。（在邮件里注明，如果你的问题被选中，你是否希望透露自己的姓名。）",[14,3008,3009],{},"另一组问题将由三位关注伯克希尔的分析师提出。今年的保险业专家是野村证券 (Nomura Securities) 的克利夫·加兰特 (Cliff Gallant)。关于非保险业务的问题将来自Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb的乔纳森·布兰特 (Jonathan Brandt) 和晨星 (Morningstar) 的格雷格·沃伦 (Gregg Warren)。我们希望分析师和记者提出的问题有助于增进股东们对自己投资的了解和认识。",[14,3011,3012],{},"查理和我事先不会得到任何关于问题内容的提示。有些问题肯定会很刁钻——这正是我们喜欢的方式。不允许一个人问多部分的复合问题；我们希望让尽可能多的提问者有机会向我们”开火”。",[14,3014,3015],{},"总共我们预计至少有54个问题，每位分析师和记者各6个，另外18个来自现场观众。（去年我们总共回答了64个。）现场观众的提问者将通过11次抽签产生，抽签在年会当天早上8:15进行。大厅和主分会场里安装的11个麦克风将各进行一次抽签。",[14,3017,3018],{},"谈到让股东增长知识的话题，让我提醒大家：查理和我相信，伯克希尔发布新信息时，所有股东都应该能够同时获得，而且如果可能的话，应该有充足的时间在交易前消化和分析这些信息。这就是为什么我们尽量在周五晚间或周六早间发布财务数据，以及为什么我们的年度大会总是安排在周六。我们不采用与大型机构投资者或分析师进行一对一交流的惯常做法，而是像对待所有其他股东一样对待他们。对我们来说，没有谁比那些收入有限但信赖我们、把大部分积蓄托付给我们的小股东更重要。",[979,3020],{},[14,3022,3023],{},"出于充分的理由，我经常赞扬我们运营经理们取得的成就。他们真的是全明星，经营自己的业务就好像那是家族唯一的财产一样用心。我也相信，我们管理者的股东导向心态，在大型上市公司中是找不到更好的了。我们的大多数经理人并不需要为钱而工作。打出商业”全垒打”带来的喜悦，跟收到薪水支票对他们来说同样重要。",[14,3025,3026],{},"然而同样重要的是在我们公司总部与我共事的24位男女同事。这个团队高效地应对大量SEC和其他监管要求，提交一份30,400页的联邦所得税申报表——比上一年多了6,000页！——监管3,530份州税申报表的提交，回复无数的股东和媒体问询，发布年度报告，筹备全美最大的企业年会，协调董事会活动，对这封信进行事实核查——这份任务清单还可以一直列下去。",[14,3028,3029],{},"他们愉快而高效地处理所有这些工作，让我的生活轻松惬意。他们的付出还超越了与伯克希尔直接相关的事务：比如去年，他们接待了40所大学（从200所申请者中遴选出来的）派来的学生到奥马哈和我进行一天的问答交流。他们还处理我收到的各种请求，安排我的行程，甚至给我买午餐的汉堡和薯条（当然要裹满亨氏番茄酱）。没有哪个CEO比我更舒服了；我真的感觉每天像跳着踢踏舞去上班。实际上，我的工作一年比一年更有趣。",[14,3031,3032,3033,3036,3037,3040],{},"2015年伯克希尔的收入增长了160亿美元。但请仔细看看年报中的两张照片。上面那张来自去年的报告，是我们总部全体同事在圣诞午餐会上的合影。下面那张是今年的圣诞合影，",[806,3034,3035],{},"同样的","25个人站在",[806,3038,3039],{},"完全一样的","位置。2015年没有一个人加入，也没有一个人离开。而且很有可能明年你还会看到同样25个人的合影。",[14,3042,3043],{},"你能想象还有哪家超大型公司——我们在全球雇有361,270名员工——总部能有这样的人员稳定性吗？在伯克希尔，我们雇了一些出色的人——他们一直留了下来。而且，除非真正需要，我们不会雇人。这就是为什么你从来没有听说过伯克希尔要进行”重组”的原因。",[14,3045,3046],{},"4月30日，来奥马哈——资本家的摇篮——和我的这帮伙伴见见面吧。他们是最棒的。",[14,3048,3049],{},"2016年2月27日",[14,3051,3052],{},"沃伦·E·巴菲特",[14,3054,3055],{},"董事会主席",{"title":3057,"searchDepth":3058,"depth":3058,"links":3059},"",2,[3060,3062,3063,3064,3065,3066,3067,3068,3069,3070,3071],{"id":788,"depth":3061,"text":789},3,{"id":825,"depth":3061,"text":825},{"id":1064,"depth":3061,"text":1064},{"id":1102,"depth":3061,"text":1102},{"id":1450,"depth":3061,"text":1450},{"id":1816,"depth":3061,"text":1817},{"id":2140,"depth":3061,"text":2140},{"id":2347,"depth":3061,"text":2347},{"id":2672,"depth":3061,"text":2672},{"id":2791,"depth":3061,"text":2791},{"id":2881,"depth":3061,"text":2881},"致股东信",null,"2015年巴菲特致股东信，分析投资收益、创新高业绩、可口可乐投资及内在价值评估","md",{},true,88,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":3074},"2015 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","clmiMgtot_Kyonyr7yk8H4sj2Oy0oO7oNn5Gq7tMrt8","buffett",[3087,3092,3096,3100,3103,3106,3109,3112,3115,3118,3122,3125,3128,3132,3135,3138,3142,3145,3148,3152,3155,3158,3162,3165,3168,3172,3175,3178,3182,3185,3188,3192,3195,3198,3202,3205,3208,3212,3215,3218,3222,3225,3228,3232,3235,3238,3242,3245,3248,3252,3255,3258,3262,3265,3268,3272,3275,3278,3282,3285,3288,3292,3295,3298,3302,3305,3308,3312,3315,3318,3322,3325,3328,3332,3335,3338,3342,3345,3348,3352,3355,3358,3362,3365,3368,3372,3375,3378,3382,3385,3388,3392,3395,3398,3402,3405,3408,3412,3415,3418,3422,3425,3429,3432,3436,3439,3443,3446,3450,3453,3457,3460,3464,3467,3471,3474,3478,3481,3485,3488,3492,3495,3499,3502,3506,3509,3513,3516,3520,3523,3527,3530,3534,3537,3541,3544,3548,3551,3555,3558,3562,3565,3569,3572,3576,3579,3583,3586,3590,3593,3597,3600,3604,3607,3611,3614,3618,3621,3625,3628,3632,3635,3639,3642,3646,3649,3653,3656,3660,3663,3667,3670,3674,3677,3681,3684,3688,3691,3695,3698,3702,3705,3709,3712,3716,3719,3723,3726,3730,3733,3737,3740,3744,3747,3751,3754,3758,3761,3765,3768,3772,3775,3779,3782,3786,3789,3793,3796,3797,3800,3804,3807,3811,3814,3818,3821,3825,3828,3832,3835,3839,3842,3846,3849,3853,3856,3860,3863,3867,3870,3874,3877,3881,3884,3888,3892,3896,3900,3904,3908,3912,3916,3920,3924,3928,3932,3936,3940,3944,3948,3952,3956,3960,3964,3968,3972,3976,3980,3984,3988,3992,3996,4000,4004,4008,4012,4016,4020,4024,4028,4032,4036,4040,4044,4048,4052,4056,4060,4064,4068,4072,4076,4080,4084],{"title":3088,"slug":3089,"category":3090,"order":3091},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":3093,"slug":3094,"category":3095,"order":3091},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":3097,"slug":3098,"category":3099,"order":3091},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":3101,"slug":3102,"category":3090,"order":3058},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":3104,"slug":3105,"category":3095,"order":3058},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":3107,"slug":3108,"category":3099,"order":3058},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3110,"slug":3111,"category":3090,"order":3061},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":3113,"slug":3114,"category":3095,"order":3061},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":3116,"slug":3117,"category":3099,"order":3061},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3119,"slug":3120,"category":3090,"order":3121},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":3123,"slug":3124,"category":3095,"order":3121},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":3126,"slug":3127,"category":3099,"order":3121},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3129,"slug":3130,"category":3090,"order":3131},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":3133,"slug":3134,"category":3095,"order":3131},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":3136,"slug":3137,"category":3099,"order":3131},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3139,"slug":3140,"category":3090,"order":3141},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":3143,"slug":3144,"category":3095,"order":3141},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":3146,"slug":3147,"category":3099,"order":3141},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3149,"slug":3150,"category":3090,"order":3151},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":3153,"slug":3154,"category":3095,"order":3151},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":3156,"slug":3157,"category":3099,"order":3151},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3159,"slug":3160,"category":3090,"order":3161},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":3163,"slug":3164,"category":3095,"order":3161},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":3166,"slug":3167,"category":3099,"order":3161},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3169,"slug":3170,"category":3090,"order":3171},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":3173,"slug":3174,"category":3095,"order":3171},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":3176,"slug":3177,"category":3099,"order":3171},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3179,"slug":3180,"category":3090,"order":3181},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":3183,"slug":3184,"category":3095,"order":3181},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":3186,"slug":3187,"category":3099,"order":3181},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3189,"slug":3190,"category":3090,"order":3191},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":3193,"slug":3194,"category":3095,"order":3191},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":3196,"slug":3197,"category":3099,"order":3191},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3199,"slug":3200,"category":3090,"order":3201},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":3203,"slug":3204,"category":3095,"order":3201},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":3206,"slug":3207,"category":3099,"order":3201},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3209,"slug":3210,"category":3090,"order":3211},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":3213,"slug":3214,"category":3095,"order":3211},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":3216,"slug":3217,"category":3099,"order":3211},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3219,"slug":3220,"category":3090,"order":3221},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":3223,"slug":3224,"category":3095,"order":3221},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":3226,"slug":3227,"category":3099,"order":3221},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3229,"slug":3230,"category":3090,"order":3231},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":3233,"slug":3234,"category":3095,"order":3231},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":3236,"slug":3237,"category":3099,"order":3231},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3239,"slug":3240,"category":3090,"order":3241},"1964 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巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":3535,"slug":3536,"category":3095,"order":3533},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":3538,"slug":3539,"category":3072,"order":3540},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":3542,"slug":3543,"category":3095,"order":3540},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":3545,"slug":3546,"category":3072,"order":3547},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":3549,"slug":3550,"category":3095,"order":3547},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":3552,"slug":3553,"category":3072,"order":3554},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":3556,"slug":3557,"category":3095,"order":3554},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3559,"slug":3560,"category":3072,"order":3561},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":3563,"slug":3564,"category":3095,"order":3561},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":3566,"slug":3567,"category":3072,"order":3568},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":3570,"slug":3571,"category":3095,"order":3568},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":3573,"slug":3574,"category":3072,"order":3575},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":3577,"slug":3578,"category":3095,"order":3575},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":3580,"slug":3581,"category":3072,"order":3582},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":3584,"slug":3585,"category":3095,"order":3582},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":3587,"slug":3588,"category":3072,"order":3589},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":3591,"slug":3592,"category":3095,"order":3589},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3594,"slug":3595,"category":3072,"order":3596},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":3598,"slug":3599,"category":3095,"order":3596},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3601,"slug":3602,"category":3072,"order":3603},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":3605,"slug":3606,"category":3095,"order":3603},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3608,"slug":3609,"category":3072,"order":3610},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":3612,"slug":3613,"category":3095,"order":3610},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":3615,"slug":3616,"category":3072,"order":3617},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":3619,"slug":3620,"category":3095,"order":3617},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":3622,"slug":3623,"category":3072,"order":3624},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":3626,"slug":3627,"category":3095,"order":3624},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":3629,"slug":3630,"category":3072,"order":3631},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":3633,"slug":3634,"category":3095,"order":3631},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":3636,"slug":3637,"category":3072,"order":3638},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":3640,"slug":3641,"category":3095,"order":3638},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3643,"slug":3644,"category":3072,"order":3645},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":3647,"slug":3648,"category":3095,"order":3645},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":3650,"slug":3651,"category":3072,"order":3652},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":3654,"slug":3655,"category":3095,"order":3652},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3657,"slug":3658,"category":3072,"order":3659},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":3661,"slug":3662,"category":3095,"order":3659},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":3664,"slug":3665,"category":3072,"order":3666},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":3668,"slug":3669,"category":3095,"order":3666},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":3671,"slug":3672,"category":3072,"order":3673},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":3675,"slug":3676,"category":3095,"order":3673},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":3678,"slug":3679,"category":3072,"order":3680},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":3682,"slug":3683,"category":3095,"order":3680},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3685,"slug":3686,"category":3072,"order":3687},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":3689,"slug":3690,"category":3095,"order":3687},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":3692,"slug":3693,"category":3072,"order":3694},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":3696,"slug":3697,"category":3095,"order":3694},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":3699,"slug":3700,"category":3072,"order":3701},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":3703,"slug":3704,"category":3095,"order":3701},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3706,"slug":3707,"category":3072,"order":3708},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":3710,"slug":3711,"category":3095,"order":3708},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3713,"slug":3714,"category":3072,"order":3715},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":3717,"slug":3718,"category":3095,"order":3715},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":3720,"slug":3721,"category":3072,"order":3722},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":3724,"slug":3725,"category":3095,"order":3722},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":3727,"slug":3728,"category":3072,"order":3729},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":3731,"slug":3732,"category":3095,"order":3729},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":3734,"slug":3735,"category":3072,"order":3736},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":3738,"slug":3739,"category":3095,"order":3736},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":3741,"slug":3742,"category":3072,"order":3743},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":3745,"slug":3746,"category":3095,"order":3743},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":3748,"slug":3749,"category":3072,"order":3750},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":3752,"slug":3753,"category":3095,"order":3750},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3755,"slug":3756,"category":3072,"order":3757},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":3759,"slug":3760,"category":3095,"order":3757},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3762,"slug":3763,"category":3072,"order":3764},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":3766,"slug":3767,"category":3095,"order":3764},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3769,"slug":3770,"category":3072,"order":3771},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":3773,"slug":3774,"category":3095,"order":3771},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":3776,"slug":3777,"category":3072,"order":3778},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":3780,"slug":3781,"category":3095,"order":3778},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":3783,"slug":3784,"category":3072,"order":3785},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":3787,"slug":3788,"category":3095,"order":3785},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":3790,"slug":3791,"category":3072,"order":3792},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":3794,"slug":3795,"category":3095,"order":3792},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":5,"slug":3082,"category":3072,"order":3078},{"title":3798,"slug":3799,"category":3095,"order":3078},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":3801,"slug":3802,"category":3072,"order":3803},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":3805,"slug":3806,"category":3095,"order":3803},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3808,"slug":3809,"category":3072,"order":3810},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":3812,"slug":3813,"category":3095,"order":3810},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":3815,"slug":3816,"category":3072,"order":3817},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":3819,"slug":3820,"category":3095,"order":3817},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":3822,"slug":3823,"category":3072,"order":3824},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":3826,"slug":3827,"category":3095,"order":3824},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3829,"slug":3830,"category":3072,"order":3831},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":3833,"slug":3834,"category":3095,"order":3831},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":3836,"slug":3837,"category":3072,"order":3838},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":3840,"slug":3841,"category":3095,"order":3838},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3843,"slug":3844,"category":3072,"order":3845},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":3847,"slug":3848,"category":3095,"order":3845},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":3850,"slug":3851,"category":3072,"order":3852},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":3854,"slug":3855,"category":3095,"order":3852},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":3857,"slug":3858,"category":3072,"order":3859},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":3861,"slug":3862,"category":3095,"order":3859},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3864,"slug":3865,"category":3072,"order":3866},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":3868,"slug":3869,"category":3095,"order":3866},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3871,"slug":3872,"category":3072,"order":3873},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":3875,"slug":3876,"category":3095,"order":3873},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3878,"slug":3879,"category":3072,"order":3880},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":3882,"slug":3883,"category":3095,"order":3880},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":3885,"slug":3886,"category":3095,"order":3887},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":3889,"slug":3890,"category":3095,"order":3891},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":3893,"slug":3894,"category":3095,"order":3895},"巴菲特：2013年 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