[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":4321},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":2786,"library-sidebar-dao":3788,"library-sidebar-models":4089},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":2772,"date":2773,"description":2774,"extension":2775,"meta":2776,"navigation":2777,"order":2778,"path":2779,"seo":2780,"seoDescription":2774,"seoTitle":2781,"slug":2782,"stem":2783,"__hash__":2784,"_collection":2785},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2014 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":2758},"minimark",[9,13,20,758,772,775,778,783,788,791,794,802,805,812,815,818,821,828,835,838,843,846,853,868,875,880,883,886,889,894,897,900,903,914,917,920,923,930,935,938,941,944,946,949,952,963,966,973,976,979,982,985,988,990,997,1000,1003,1006,1009,1016,1071,1081,1088,1095,1102,1117,1124,1135,1152,1154,1157,1160,1167,1170,1173,1175,1178,1184,1187,1190,1193,1195,1202,1217,1223,1225,1228,1335,1337,1340,1343,1346,1349,1356,1358,1361,1364,1367,1378,1385,1388,1396,1399,1404,1410,1413,1416,1419,1422,1425,1428,1431,1615,1717,1721,1724,1729,1879,1884,1984,1989,1992,1999,2002,2005,2008,2011,2013,2020,2023,2026,2033,2035,2038,2041,2044,2047,2050,2053,2056,2059,2065,2068,2194,2199,2202,2205,2511,2516,2519,2522,2525,2527,2534,2537,2540,2543,2546,2548,2551,2558,2565,2584,2587,2598,2601,2620,2623,2630,2633,2636,2639,2642,2645,2648,2651,2654,2657,2660,2663,2666,2669,2672,2675,2678,2681,2684,2687,2690,2697,2715,2718,2721,2724,2727,2729,2732,2734,2737,2740,2743,2746,2749,2752,2755],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2014-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[21,22,23,42],"table",{},[24,25,26],"thead",{},[27,28,29,33,36,39],"tr",{},[30,31,32],"th",{},"年份",[30,34,35],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比",[30,37,38],{},"伯克希尔每股市值年度变动百分比",[30,40,41],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比",[43,44,45,60,74,88,101,115,129,143,157,171,185,199,213,227,241,255,269,283,297,310,324,338,352,366,379,393,407,421,434,448,462,476,489,503,517,531,545,558,571,584,598,611,624,635,649,663,676,689,703,716,730,744],"tbody",{},[27,46,47,51,54,57],{},[48,49,50],"td",{},"1965",[48,52,53],{},"23.8",[48,55,56],{},"49.5",[48,58,59],{},"10.0",[27,61,62,65,68,71],{},[48,63,64],{},"1966",[48,66,67],{},"20.3",[48,69,70],{},"(3.4)",[48,72,73],{},"(11.7)",[27,75,76,79,82,85],{},[48,77,78],{},"1967",[48,80,81],{},"11.0",[48,83,84],{},"13.3",[48,86,87],{},"30.9",[27,89,90,93,96,99],{},[48,91,92],{},"1968",[48,94,95],{},"19.0",[48,97,98],{},"77.8",[48,100,81],{},[27,102,103,106,109,112],{},[48,104,105],{},"1969",[48,107,108],{},"16.2",[48,110,111],{},"19.4",[48,113,114],{},"(8.4)",[27,116,117,120,123,126],{},[48,118,119],{},"1970",[48,121,122],{},"12.0",[48,124,125],{},"(4.6)",[48,127,128],{},"3.9",[27,130,131,134,137,140],{},[48,132,133],{},"1971",[48,135,136],{},"16.4",[48,138,139],{},"80.5",[48,141,142],{},"14.6",[27,144,145,148,151,154],{},[48,146,147],{},"1972",[48,149,150],{},"21.7",[48,152,153],{},"8.1",[48,155,156],{},"18.9",[27,158,159,162,165,168],{},[48,160,161],{},"1973",[48,163,164],{},"4.7",[48,166,167],{},"(2.5)",[48,169,170],{},"(14.8)",[27,172,173,176,179,182],{},[48,174,175],{},"1974",[48,177,178],{},"5.5",[48,180,181],{},"(48.7)",[48,183,184],{},"(26.4)",[27,186,187,190,193,196],{},[48,188,189],{},"1975",[48,191,192],{},"21.9",[48,194,195],{},"2.5",[48,197,198],{},"37.2",[27,200,201,204,207,210],{},[48,202,203],{},"1976",[48,205,206],{},"59.3",[48,208,209],{},"129.3",[48,211,212],{},"23.6",[27,214,215,218,221,224],{},[48,216,217],{},"1977",[48,219,220],{},"31.9",[48,222,223],{},"46.8",[48,225,226],{},"(7.4)",[27,228,229,232,235,238],{},[48,230,231],{},"1978",[48,233,234],{},"24.0",[48,236,237],{},"14.5",[48,239,240],{},"6.4",[27,242,243,246,249,252],{},[48,244,245],{},"1979",[48,247,248],{},"35.7",[48,250,251],{},"102.5",[48,253,254],{},"18.2",[27,256,257,260,263,266],{},[48,258,259],{},"1980",[48,261,262],{},"19.3",[48,264,265],{},"32.8",[48,267,268],{},"32.3",[27,270,271,274,277,280],{},[48,272,273],{},"1981",[48,275,276],{},"31.4",[48,278,279],{},"31.8",[48,281,282],{},"(5.0)",[27,284,285,288,291,294],{},[48,286,287],{},"1982",[48,289,290],{},"40.0",[48,292,293],{},"38.4",[48,295,296],{},"21.4",[27,298,299,302,304,307],{},[48,300,301],{},"1983",[48,303,268],{},[48,305,306],{},"69.0",[48,308,309],{},"22.4",[27,311,312,315,318,321],{},[48,313,314],{},"1984",[48,316,317],{},"13.6",[48,319,320],{},"(2.7)",[48,322,323],{},"6.1",[27,325,326,329,332,335],{},[48,327,328],{},"1985",[48,330,331],{},"48.2",[48,333,334],{},"93.7",[48,336,337],{},"31.6",[27,339,340,343,346,349],{},[48,341,342],{},"1986",[48,344,345],{},"26.1",[48,347,348],{},"14.2",[48,350,351],{},"18.6",[27,353,354,357,360,363],{},[48,355,356],{},"1987",[48,358,359],{},"19.5",[48,361,362],{},"4.6",[48,364,365],{},"5.1",[27,367,368,371,374,376],{},[48,369,370],{},"1988",[48,372,373],{},"20.1",[48,375,206],{},[48,377,378],{},"16.6",[27,380,381,384,387,390],{},[48,382,383],{},"1989",[48,385,386],{},"44.4",[48,388,389],{},"84.6",[48,391,392],{},"31.7",[27,394,395,398,401,404],{},[48,396,397],{},"1990",[48,399,400],{},"7.4",[48,402,403],{},"(23.1)",[48,405,406],{},"(3.1)",[27,408,409,412,415,418],{},[48,410,411],{},"1991",[48,413,414],{},"39.6",[48,416,417],{},"35.6",[48,419,420],{},"30.5",[27,422,423,426,428,431],{},[48,424,425],{},"1992",[48,427,67],{},[48,429,430],{},"29.8",[48,432,433],{},"7.6",[27,435,436,439,442,445],{},[48,437,438],{},"1993",[48,440,441],{},"14.3",[48,443,444],{},"38.9",[48,446,447],{},"10.1",[27,449,450,453,456,459],{},[48,451,452],{},"1994",[48,454,455],{},"13.9",[48,457,458],{},"25.0",[48,460,461],{},"1.3",[27,463,464,467,470,473],{},[48,465,466],{},"1995",[48,468,469],{},"43.1",[48,471,472],{},"57.4",[48,474,475],{},"37.6",[27,477,478,481,483,486],{},[48,479,480],{},"1996",[48,482,279],{},[48,484,485],{},"6.2",[48,487,488],{},"23.0",[27,490,491,494,497,500],{},[48,492,493],{},"1997",[48,495,496],{},"34.1",[48,498,499],{},"34.9",[48,501,502],{},"33.4",[27,504,505,508,511,514],{},[48,506,507],{},"1998",[48,509,510],{},"48.3",[48,512,513],{},"52.2",[48,515,516],{},"28.6",[27,518,519,522,525,528],{},[48,520,521],{},"1999",[48,523,524],{},"0.5",[48,526,527],{},"(19.9)",[48,529,530],{},"21.0",[27,532,533,536,539,542],{},[48,534,535],{},"2000",[48,537,538],{},"6.5",[48,540,541],{},"26.6",[48,543,544],{},"(9.1)",[27,546,547,550,553,555],{},[48,548,549],{},"2001",[48,551,552],{},"(6.2)",[48,554,538],{},[48,556,557],{},"(11.9)",[27,559,560,563,565,568],{},[48,561,562],{},"2002",[48,564,59],{},[48,566,567],{},"(3.8)",[48,569,570],{},"(22.1)",[27,572,573,576,578,581],{},[48,574,575],{},"2003",[48,577,530],{},[48,579,580],{},"15.8",[48,582,583],{},"28.7",[27,585,586,589,592,595],{},[48,587,588],{},"2004",[48,590,591],{},"10.5",[48,593,594],{},"4.3",[48,596,597],{},"10.9",[27,599,600,603,605,608],{},[48,601,602],{},"2005",[48,604,240],{},[48,606,607],{},"0.8",[48,609,610],{},"4.9",[27,612,613,616,619,622],{},[48,614,615],{},"2006",[48,617,618],{},"18.4",[48,620,621],{},"24.1",[48,623,580],{},[27,625,626,629,631,633],{},[48,627,628],{},"2007",[48,630,81],{},[48,632,583],{},[48,634,178],{},[27,636,637,640,643,646],{},[48,638,639],{},"2008",[48,641,642],{},"(9.6)",[48,644,645],{},"(31.8)",[48,647,648],{},"(37.0)",[27,650,651,654,657,660],{},[48,652,653],{},"2009",[48,655,656],{},"19.8",[48,658,659],{},"2.7",[48,661,662],{},"26.5",[27,664,665,668,671,673],{},[48,666,667],{},"2010",[48,669,670],{},"13.0",[48,672,296],{},[48,674,675],{},"15.1",[27,677,678,681,683,686],{},[48,679,680],{},"2011",[48,682,362],{},[48,684,685],{},"(4.7)",[48,687,688],{},"2.1",[27,690,691,694,697,700],{},[48,692,693],{},"2012",[48,695,696],{},"14.4",[48,698,699],{},"16.8",[48,701,702],{},"16.0",[27,704,705,708,710,713],{},[48,706,707],{},"2013",[48,709,254],{},[48,711,712],{},"32.7",[48,714,715],{},"32.4",[27,717,718,721,724,727],{},[48,719,720],{},"2014",[48,722,723],{},"8.3",[48,725,726],{},"27.0",[48,728,729],{},"13.7",[27,731,732,735,738,741],{},[48,733,734],{},"年复合增长率——1965-2014",[48,736,737],{},"19.4%",[48,739,740],{},"21.6%",[48,742,743],{},"9.9%",[27,745,746,749,752,755],{},[48,747,748],{},"累计总收益——1964-2014",[48,750,751],{},"751,113%",[48,753,754],{},"1,826,163%",[48,756,757],{},"11,196%",[14,759,760,763,764,767,768,771],{},[17,761,762],{},"注释："," 数据均按日历年计，以下年份除外：1965年和1966年为截至9月30日的年度；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市值而非成本与市值孰低法对所持股票进行估值。本表中伯克希尔1978年及之前的数据已按新规则进行了重新计算。其他方面的数据均使用最初报告的数字。标普500指数的数据为",[17,765,766],{},"税前","数据，而伯克希尔的数据为",[17,769,770],{},"税后","数据。如果伯克希尔这样的企业仅持有标普500指数并计提相应税款，则在指数正回报的年份其业绩将落后于标普500，而在指数负回报的年份则会超过标普500。多年累积下来，税收成本将导致巨大的累积差距。",[773,774],"hr",{},[14,776,777],{},"致读者：50年前，现任管理层接掌了伯克希尔。在这个金色50周年之际，沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）和查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）分别撰写了各自对伯克希尔过去50年的看法以及对未来50年的展望。两人在读完对方的文章后，都没有改动自己的内容。建议股东们——尤其是新股东——在阅读下文的2014年报告之前，先阅读这两封信。",[779,780,782],"h3",{"id":781},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,784,785],{},[17,786,787],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东：",[14,789,790],{},"2014年，伯克希尔的净资产增加了183亿美元，A\u002FB股每股账面价值增长8.3%。自现任管理层接手的50年来，每股账面价值已从19美元增长至146,186美元，年复合增长率约为19.4%。(*)",[14,792,793],{},"(*): 本报告中使用的所有每股数字均适用于伯克希尔A股。B股数字为A股的1\u002F1500。",[14,795,796,797,801],{},"在我们任期内，我们始终将标普500指数的年度表现与伯克希尔每股账面价值的变化进行比较。我们之所以这么做，是因为账面价值虽然粗略，却是一个有用的",[798,799,800],"em",{},"跟踪指标","，可以追踪真正重要的数字：内在商业价值。",[14,803,804],{},"在最初的几十年里，账面价值和内在价值之间的关系比现在要紧密得多。原因在于当时伯克希尔的资产主要是有价证券，其价值会不断按当前市价进行调整。用华尔街的话说，计算账面价值所涉及的大部分资产都是”按市值计价的”。",[14,806,807,808,811],{},"如今，我们的重心已大幅转向拥有和经营大型企业。其中许多企业的价值远远超过其基于成本的账面价值。但不论这些企业的价值增加了多少，这个数字",[798,809,810],{},"永远","不会向上调整。因此，伯克希尔的内在价值与账面价值之间的差距已经大幅扩大。",[14,813,814],{},"有鉴于此，我们在首页的业绩表中增加了一组新数据——伯克希尔股价的历史记录。让我强调一下，市场价格在短期内有其局限性。股票的月度或年度波动往往反复无常，并不能反映内在价值的变化。然而长期来看，股价和内在价值几乎总是趋于吻合。伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合伙人查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）和我都相信，在伯克希尔身上确实如此：在我们看来，伯克希尔过去50年每股内在价值的增长大致相当于公司股价1,826,163%的涨幅。",[779,816,817],{"id":817},"伯克希尔过去一年的表现",[14,819,820],{},"在过去一年，伯克希尔几乎在所有主要方面都表现出色，只有一处例外。重要进展如下：",[822,823,824],"ul",{},[825,826,827],"li",{},"我们的”五驾马车”——伯克希尔旗下最大的五家非保险业务——2014年税前收益达到创纪录的124亿美元，较2013年增加16亿美元。(1) 这个备受赞誉的阵容包括：伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源（Berkshire Hathaway Energy，原中美能源）、BNSF铁路、IMC集团（我过去称之为Iscar）、路博润（Lubrizol）和马蒙集团（Marmon）。",[14,829,830,831,834],{},"五家之中，十年前只有伯克希尔能源是我们旗下的，当时的税前收益仅有3.93亿美元。此后我们以全现金方式收购了其中三家。收购第五家BNSF时，我们用现金支付了约70%，其余部分通过发行伯克希尔股票支付，使得流通股增加了6.1%。换句话说，这五家公司在十年间为伯克希尔带来的年度税前收益增长了120亿美元，而公司股本仅有轻微稀释。这才符合我们的目标——不仅仅要增加收益，还要确保",[798,832,833],{},"每股","收益的增长。",[14,836,837],{},"如果美国经济在2015年继续改善，我们预计五驾马车的收益也将继续增长。增幅有望达到10亿美元，部分归功于该集团已经完成或正在进行中的补强收购。",[822,839,840],{},[825,841,842],{},"2014年的坏消息同样来自五驾马车，但与收益无关。过去一年中，BNSF令许多客户感到失望。这些托运人依赖于我们，运营不力会严重损害他们的业务。",[14,844,845],{},"BNSF是伯克希尔迄今为止最重要的非保险类子公司。为了改善其表现，我们将在2015年投入60亿美元用于厂房和设备。这个数字比任何其他铁路公司一年的支出都高出近50%，无论从收入、盈利还是折旧费用来看，都堪称空前。",[14,847,848,849,852],{},"虽然恶劣天气——去年尤其严重——总会给铁路运营带来各种问题，但我们的责任是",[798,850,851],{},"不惜一切","将服务恢复到行业领先水平。这不是一朝一夕之功：扩充系统运力所需的大量施工有时反而会干扰运营。不过可喜的是，我们的巨额投入近期已经开始见效。在过去一个季度，BNSF的各项运营指标较去年已有明显改善。",[822,854,855,858,865],{},[825,856,857],{},"我们数十家规模较小的非保险业务去年的税前收益达到51亿美元，高于2013年的47亿美元。与五驾马车一样，我们预计2015年会有进一步增长。在这些企业中，有2家税前收益在4亿至6亿美元之间，6家在2.5亿至4亿美元之间，另有7家在1亿至2.5亿美元之间。这一系列企业的数量和收益都将持续增长。我们的雄心没有终点线。",[825,859,860,861,864],{},"伯克希尔庞大且不断增长的保险业务在2014年再次实现了承保盈利——这已经是连续第12年——并且增加了浮存金。在这12年间，我们的浮存金——这些钱不属于我们，但我们可以用来为伯克希尔投资获益——从410亿美元增长到了840亿美元。虽然浮存金的增长和规模都没有反映在伯克希尔的收益中，但它让我们得以持有大量资产，从而产生可观的投资收入。与此同时，我们在这12年间累计获得240亿美元的承保收益，其中2014年为27亿美元。而这一切都始于1967年我们以860",[798,862,863],{},"万","美元收购了国民保险公司（National Indemnity）。",[825,866,867],{},"在查理和我寻找新的收购对象时，我们的许多子公司也在持续进行补强收购。去年这方面成果尤为丰硕：我们签订了31项补强收购协议，预计总耗资78亿美元。这些交易的规模从40万美元到29亿美元不等。不过，其中最大的一笔收购——金霸王（Duracell）——要到今年下半年才能完成，届时将归入马蒙集团管辖。",[14,869,870,871,874],{},"查理和我鼓励补强收购，",[798,872,873],{},"前提是","价格合理。（向我们送来的大多数交易都不合理。）这些收购将资本配置到与现有业务契合的领域，并交由我们的专业管理团队来运营。这意味着我们无需额外工作就能增加收益——这种组合对我们来说格外有吸引力。未来我们还会进行更多这样的补强收购。",[822,876,877],{},[825,878,879],{},"两年前，我的朋友豪尔赫·保罗·雷曼（Jorge Paulo Lemann）邀请伯克希尔加入他的3G资本集团，共同收购亨氏（Heinz）。我毫不犹豫地答应了：我当即就知道，无论从个人交情还是财务回报来看，这次合作一定会顺利。事实也确实如此。",[14,881,882],{},"坦率地说，在董事长亚历克斯·贝林（Alex Behring）和CEO贝尔纳多·希斯（Bernardo Hees）的管理下，亨氏的运营比由我掌管要好得多——这一点我并不难为情。他们坚持极高的绩效标准，从不自满，即便他们的业绩已经远超同行。",[14,884,885],{},"我们期望在更多项目中与3G合作。有时我们的参与仅限于财务角色，就像近期汉堡王（Burger King）收购Tim Hortons那样。不过，我们最青睐的方式通常还是成为永久的股权合伙人（在某些情况下，我们也为交易提供融资）。不管具体架构如何，与雷曼合作我们总是感觉很好。",[14,887,888],{},"伯克希尔还与玛氏（Mars）和Leucadia建立了良好的合作关系，我们可能与他们或其他伙伴组建新的合资项目。但我们参与的任何合作活动——无论是作为财务投资者还是股权合伙人——都将仅限于友好交易。",[822,890,891],{},[825,892,893],{},"去年10月，我们签约收购了Van Tuyl汽车销售集团，由78家汽车经销商组成，运营管理得极好。该公司的所有者拉里·范·图尔（Larry Van Tuyl）和我在多年前曾有过一面之缘。当时他就决定，如果有朝一日要出售公司，就卖给伯克希尔。收购近期已经完成，现在我们也算”汽车人”了。",[14,895,896],{},"拉里和他的父亲塞西尔（Cecil）用了62年建立了这个集团，一路遵循的策略就是让所有地方经理都成为合伙人。事实一再证明，这种利益共享机制是制胜法宝。Van Tuyl如今是全美第五大汽车经销集团，各店的销售数据非常亮眼。",[14,898,899],{},"近年来，杰夫·雷科尔（Jeff Rachor）一直与拉里搭档，这一成功的安排将继续延续。全美大约有17,000家汽车经销商，所有权变更都需要获得相关汽车制造商的批准。伯克希尔要做的，就是让汽车厂商乐意支持我们进一步收购。如果我们做到了这一点——并且能以合理价格收购经销商——用不了多久，我们就能建立一个规模数倍于Van Tuyl目前90亿美元年销售额的汽车经销业务。",[14,901,902],{},"随着Van Tuyl的收购完成，如果我们旗下的公司都独立的话，伯克希尔目前拥有9.5家《财富》500强企业（亨氏算半家）。这意味着海里还有490.5条鱼等着我们。鱼线已经甩出去了。",[822,904,905,908,911],{},[825,906,907],{},"2014年，我们的子公司在厂房和设备上投入了创纪录的150亿美元，远超其折旧费用的两倍。其中约90%的资金花在了美国国内。尽管我们也会在海外投资，但机遇的宝藏主要还是在美国。迄今为止已经发掘出的宝藏，与尚未开采的相比简直不值一提。幸运的是，查理和我生在美国，我们对这个出生带来的巨大优势永怀感恩。",[825,909,910],{},"伯克希尔的年底员工总数——包括亨氏在内——达到创纪录的340,499人，比上年增加9,754人。我可以自豪地说，这个增长不包括总部的员工（那里仍然只有25人）。别犯傻嘛。",[825,912,913],{},"去年，伯克希尔对”四大巨头”的持股比例都有所提升——美国运通（American Express）、可口可乐（Coca-Cola）、IBM和富国银行（Wells Fargo）。我们增持了IBM的股票（持股比例从2013年底的6.3%提高到7.8%）。与此同时，可口可乐、美国运通和富国银行各自的股票回购也推高了我们的持股比例。我们在可口可乐的持股从9.1%升至9.2%，美国运通从14.2%升至14.8%，富国银行从9.2%升至9.4%。如果你觉得零点几个百分点无关紧要，不妨算一笔账：四家公司合计，我们的持股比例每上升0.1个百分点，伯克希尔每年应占收益就增加5000万美元。",[14,915,916],{},"这四家被投资公司拥有卓越的业务，由才华出众且以股东利益为导向的管理层运营。在伯克希尔，我们宁可拥有一家优秀企业非控股但相当大比例的股份，也不愿拥有一家普通企业的100%。宁可拥有希望之钻（Hope Diamond）的一部分，也不要拥有一整颗水钻。",[14,918,919],{},"以伯克希尔年末持股量计算，我们在四大巨头2014年持续经营收益中应占47亿美元（仅三年前为33亿美元）。然而，在我们向你们报告的收益中，仅包含我们实际收到的股息——去年约为16亿美元。（三年前的股息为8.62亿美元。）但不要搞错了：这些公司中我们未报告的31亿美元收益，对伯克希尔来说和报告的那部分一样有价值。",[14,921,922],{},"这些被投资企业留存的收益通常会用来回购自家股票——这意味着我们不花一分钱就增加了在其未来收益中所占的份额。它们的留存收益也为那些通常被证明是有利可图的商业机会提供资金。所有这些都让我们有理由预期，随着时间推移，这四家被投资公司的合计每股收益将大幅增长（尽管2015年对它们来说将是艰难的一年，部分原因是美元走强）。如果预期的增长实现了，我们获得的股息将增加，更重要的是，我们的未实现资本利得也将增加。（截至年底，我们在这四家企业的未实现利得合计已达420亿美元。）",[14,924,925,926,929],{},"我们在资本配置上的灵活性——愿意将大笔资金被动投入非控股企业——使我们相比那些只投资于自己能直接经营的企业的公司拥有巨大优势。我们对直接经营业务和被动投资",[798,927,928],{},"都","有胃口，这使得我们为伯克希尔源源不断的现金流找到合理用途的机会翻了一番。",[822,931,932],{},[825,933,934],{},"我过去曾说过，我的商业经验帮助我成为更好的投资者，而我的投资经验使我成为更好的商人。两种实践中学到的经验教训可以互相借鉴。还有一些道理只有通过亲身经历才能真正领悟。（弗雷德·施韦德（Fred Schwed）那本精彩绝伦的《客户的游艇在哪里》中有一幅彼得·阿尔诺（Peter Arno）的漫画：画中一个困惑的亚当看着一个渴望的夏娃，旁白写道：“有些事情，无论用文字还是图片，都无法向一位处女说明白。”如果你还没读过施韦德的书，就在我们年会上买一本吧。这本书的智慧和幽默实在是无价之宝。）",[14,936,937],{},"在阿尔诺所说的”有些事情”之外，我还要加上两项独立的技能：评估投资的能力和管理企业的能力。因此我认为，我们的两位投资经理——托德·库姆斯（Todd Combs）和泰德·韦施勒（Ted Weschler）——各自至少接管一家企业是值得的。几个月前，一个合理的机会出现了：我们同意收购两家公司，虽然规模小于我们通常收购的标的，但经济特性极佳。两家合计净有形资产约1.25亿美元，年税前收益约1亿美元。",[14,939,940],{},"我已经请托德和泰德各担任其中一家的董事长，其角色与我管理较大子公司时一样，只做非常有限的介入。这种安排为我减轻了一点点工作，更重要的是，将使他们俩成为比现在更优秀的投资者（现在已是最好的投资者之一了）。",[14,942,943],{},"(1): 在本信以及本报告后面的”金色50周年”信中，除非另有说明，所有收益均为税前数字。",[773,945],{},[14,947,948],{},"2009年底，在”大衰退”的阴霾中，我们同意收购BNSF铁路——伯克希尔历史上最大的一笔收购。当时我把这笔交易称为”对美国经济前景的全押”。",[14,950,951],{},"这种押注对我们来说并不新鲜。自从1965年巴菲特合伙公司（Buffett Partnership Ltd.）收购伯克希尔的控制权以来，我们就一直在进行类似的押注。理由也很充分：查理和我一直认为，“押注”美国将持续繁荣，几乎是板上钉钉的事情。",[14,953,954,955,958,959,962],{},"事实上，在过去238年中，谁曾因为做空美国而获益？如果你把美国今天的状况和1776年相比，简直不敢相信自己的眼睛。仅在我有生之年，美国的",[798,956,957],{},"实际","人均产出就翻了",[798,960,961],{},"六倍","。我的父母在1930年做梦都不会想到他们的儿子将看到的世界。虽然悲观主义的传教士们没完没了地唠叨美国的问题，但我从未见过其中有谁真想移民国外（倒是有几个人，我很乐意为他们买张单程票）。",[14,964,965],{},"市场经济中蕴含的活力将继续施展它的魔力。成果不会以平滑或不间断的方式到来——从来都不是。我们也会经常抱怨政府。但确定无疑的是，美国最好的日子还在前头。",[14,967,968,969,972],{},"借着这股顺风，查理和我希望通过以下方式提升伯克希尔的每股内在价值：(1) 不断提高旗下众多子公司的基本盈利能力；(2) 通过补强收购进一步增加它们的收益；(3) 受益于被投资公司的增长；(4) 当伯克希尔股价大幅低于内在价值时回购股份；(5) 偶尔进行大规模收购。我们还将尽量少发行——如果可能的话不发行——伯克希尔股份，以此为",[798,970,971],{},"你们","最大化成果。",[14,974,975],{},"这些方法都建立在坚如磐石的基础之上。未来百年，BNSF铁路和伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源仍将在美国经济中扮演至关重要的角色。住房和汽车仍将是大多数家庭生活的中心。保险对企业和个人仍将不可或缺。展望未来，查理和我看到了一个为伯克希尔量身定做的世界。我们对受托管理伯克希尔深感荣幸。",[779,977,978],{"id":978},"企业内在价值",[14,980,981],{},"尽管查理和我老是谈论内在商业价值，但我们无法准确地告诉你伯克希尔股票的内在价值是多少（事实上，任何其他股票也做不到）。不过，在2010年的年度报告中，我们列出了三个要素——其中一个是定性的——我们认为这三个要素是合理估算伯克希尔内在价值的关键。完整讨论见年报第123-124页。",[14,983,984],{},"以下是两个定量要素的最新数据：2014年，我们的每股投资增长8.4%至140,123美元，保险和投资以外业务的每股税前收益增长19%至10,847美元。",[14,986,987],{},"自1970年以来，我们的每股投资年复合增长率为19%，税前收益年复合增长率为20.6%。在随后的44年中，伯克希尔股价以与这两个价值指标非常接近的速度增长，这绝非巧合。查理和我当然希望两个方面都增长，但我们的主要精力放在提升经营收益上。这就是为什么去年我们乐于用菲利普66（Phillips 66）和格雷厄姆控股（Graham Holdings）的股票来置换经营性业务，并与宝洁（Procter & Gamble）签约以类似的换股方式收购金霸王，交易预计在2015年完成。",[773,989],{},[14,991,992,993,996],{},"现在，让我们来审视我们运营的四大板块。它们彼此之间的资产负债表和收入特征差异很大。因此我们将它们作为四个独立业务来呈现，这也是查理和我看待它们的方式（尽管将它们全部纳入同一个屋檐下确实拥有极为重要且",[798,994,995],{},"持久","的优势）。我们的目标是向你们提供这样的信息：假如我们角色互换，你们是汇报的管理层，我们是缺席的股东，我们会想知道什么。（但是别想多了！）",[779,998,999],{"id":999},"保险业务",[14,1001,1002],{},"先来看保险——伯克希尔的核心业务。自从1967年我们以860万美元收购国民保险公司（National Indemnity）及其姊妹公司国民火灾海事保险公司（National Fire & Marine）以来，保险业务一直是推动我们扩张的引擎。虽然这笔收购对伯克希尔意义深远，但过程本身简单至极。",[14,1004,1005],{},"我的朋友杰克·林沃特（Jack Ringwalt）是这两家公司的控股股东，他来到我的办公室说想卖掉公司。15分钟后，我们就达成了协议。杰克的两家公司从未接受过外部会计事务所的审计，我也没有提出这样的要求。我的理由是：(1) 杰克为人诚实；(2) 他有点古怪，如果交易过程搞得太复杂，他很可能会拂袖而去。",[14,1007,1008],{},"我们用一份一页半的收购协议完成了交易（见年报第128-129页）。合同是自制的，双方都没用律师。就每页纸的投入产出比而言，这恐怕是伯克希尔最划算的交易了：如今国民保险公司的通用会计准则（GAAP）净资产高达1,110亿美元，超过全世界任何一家保险公司。",[14,1010,1011,1012,1015],{},"我们之所以被财产意外险（P\u002FC）业务所吸引，一个重要原因是其独特的财务特性：保险公司先收取保费，之后才支付赔款。在某些极端情况下——比如某些工伤赔偿事故——赔付可能延续数十年之久。这种先收钱、后付钱的模式让财产意外险公司手中持有大量资金——我们称之为”浮存金“——这些钱最终会支付给他人。在此期间，保险公司可以把浮存金拿来投资。虽然个别的保单和理赔来来去去，但保险公司持有的浮存金相对于保费收入通常保持比较稳定的比例。所以，随着我们业务增长，浮存金也跟着增长。我们",[798,1013,1014],{},"怎样","增长的，下表一目了然：",[21,1017,1018,1027],{},[24,1019,1020],{},[27,1021,1022,1024],{},[30,1023,32],{},[30,1025,1026],{},"浮存金 (百万美元)",[43,1028,1029,1036,1043,1050,1057,1064],{},[27,1030,1031,1033],{},[48,1032,119],{},[48,1034,1035],{},"$ 39",[27,1037,1038,1040],{},[48,1039,259],{},[48,1041,1042],{},"237",[27,1044,1045,1047],{},[48,1046,397],{},[48,1048,1049],{},"1,632",[27,1051,1052,1054],{},[48,1053,535],{},[48,1055,1056],{},"27,871",[27,1058,1059,1061],{},[48,1060,667],{},[48,1062,1063],{},"65,832",[27,1065,1066,1068],{},[48,1067,720],{},[48,1069,1070],{},"83,921",[14,1072,1073,1074,1077,1078,1080],{},"浮存金进一步的增长将很难实现。好的一面是，盖可保险（GEICO）和我们新的商业保险业务几乎肯定会保持良好的增长速度。但国民保险的再保险部门参与了若干正在消化中的老保单，其浮存金会逐步下降。即便我们的浮存金确实有所下滑，速度也会",[798,1075,1076],{},"非常","缓慢——每年最多不超过3%。我们保险合同的性质决定了，我们",[798,1079,810],{},"不会面临与现金资源相比规模巨大的即时偿付要求。这一优势是伯克希尔经济堡垒的关键支柱。",[14,1082,1083,1084,1087],{},"如果我们的保费收入超过总费用和最终赔付的总和，我们就获得了承保收益，这将增加浮存金所产生的投资收入。当我们赚到承保利润时，我们就相当于在免费使用这笔资金——更妙的是，持有它们还能",[798,1085,1086],{},"获得报酬","。",[14,1089,1090,1091,1094],{},"不幸的是，所有保险公司都想实现这种美好的结果，这导致了极其激烈的竞争——激烈到整个财产意外险行业经常遭受严重的承保",[798,1092,1093],{},"亏损","。这种亏损，实际上就是行业为持有浮存金所支付的代价。竞争动态几乎可以确保，尽管保险公司都享受着浮存金收入的好处，但与美国其他行业相比，保险业在有形净资产回报率方面将继续保持惨淡的低水平记录。当前美国长期的低利率环境使浮存金投资收益下降，进一步加剧了行业的利润困境。",[14,1096,1097,1098,1101],{},"正如本报告第一部分所述，伯克希尔如今已连续12年实现承保盈利，这一期间的税前收益合计240亿美元。展望未来，我相信在大多数年份我们将继续保持承保盈利。这是我们",[798,1099,1100],{},"所有","保险经理人每天关注的焦点，他们深知浮存金虽然宝贵，但其好处可能被糟糕的承保结果吞噬殆尽。所有保险公司在口头上都会传达这个信息；在伯克希尔，这是一种信仰。",[14,1103,1104,1105,1108,1109,1112,1113,1116],{},"那么，浮存金如何影响我们的内在价值？计算伯克希尔的",[798,1106,1107],{},"账面","价值时，浮存金的",[798,1110,1111],{},"全部","金额被作为",[798,1114,1115],{},"负债","扣除，就好像我们明天就要全部支付出去并且无法补充一样。但将浮存金严格视为负债是不对的；它应该被看作一个循环基金。我们每天都在支付旧的理赔和相关费用——2014年向超过600万理赔人支付了高达227亿美元——这减少了浮存金。但同样确定的是，我们每天都在承保新业务，产生新的赔付义务，从而增加浮存金。",[14,1118,1119,1120,1123],{},"如果我们的循环浮存金既没有成本又能长期维持——我相信会是这样的——那么这项负债的真实价值",[798,1121,1122],{},"远远","低于会计上的账面负债。欠着的每1美元实际上永远不会离开公司——因为新业务几乎一定会产生替代——这跟欠着的1美元明天就会流出且无法补回，完全是两回事。然而在GAAP准则下，这两种负债被一视同仁。",[14,1125,1126,1127,1130,1131,1134],{},"我们收购保险公司时产生了155亿美元的”商誉“资产，这增加了账面价值，部分抵消了上述被夸大的浮存金负债。在很大程度上，这个商誉代表了我们为保险业务产生浮存金的能力所支付的价格。然而，商誉的成本与其真实价值",[798,1128,1129],{},"毫无","关系。举个例子，如果一家保险公司长期遭受大额承保损失，那么账上的",[798,1132,1133],{},"任何","商誉资产都应视为毫无价值，不管其原始取得成本是多少。",[14,1136,1137,1138,1141,1142,1144,1145,1147,1148,1151],{},"幸运的是，这说的不是伯克希尔。查理和我相信，我们保险商誉的真正经济价值——如果我们要收购一家拥有",[798,1139,1140],{},"同等质量","浮存金的保险公司，我们愿意为其支付的价格——",[798,1143,1122],{},"超过其历史账面价值。根据现行会计准则（我们认同这些准则），这一超额价值",[798,1146,810],{},"不会记入我们的账上。但我可以向你保证，它是真实存在的。这就是我们认为伯克希尔内在商业价值大幅超过账面价值的一个重要原因——一个",[798,1149,1150],{},"巨大","的原因。",[773,1153],{},[14,1155,1156],{},"伯克希尔之所以拥有极具吸引力的保险经济模式，全靠我们有一批杰出的经理人，他们运营着纪律严明、商业模式难以复制的业务。让我来介绍几个主要部门。",[14,1158,1159],{},"按浮存金规模排名，首先是由阿吉特·贾恩（Ajit Jain）管理的伯克希尔再保险集团（Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group）。阿吉特承保的是别人不愿承保或没有资本承保的风险。他的团队集能力、速度和果断于一身，更重要的是，他的思维方式在保险界独一无二。然而，他从未让伯克希尔暴露于与我们资源不相称的风险之中。",[14,1161,1162,1163,1166],{},"事实上，在避免风险方面，我们",[798,1164,1165],{},"远比","大多数大型保险公司保守。举个例子，如果保险业因某次超级巨灾遭受2,500亿美元的损失——大约是历史最高损失的三倍——伯克希尔作为整体，凭借众多收益来源，当年依然很可能录得可观的利润。我们也将继续现金充裕，并在一个可能已经陷入混乱的市场中寻找大量投资机会。而其他大型保险和再保险公司即使没有面临破产，也会深陷亏损。",[14,1168,1169],{},"阿吉特的承保技艺无人能及。他的大脑更是一座创意工厂，总在寻找可以加入现有产品线的新业务。去年我向你们介绍了他新组建的伯克希尔特种保险公司（Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance，简称”BHSI”）。这一举措将我们带入了商业保险领域，我们立刻受到了全美主要保险经纪和企业风险经理的欢迎。此前，我们只承保了寥寥几个商业保险险种。",[14,1171,1172],{},"BHSI由彼得·伊斯特伍德（Peter Eastwood）领导，他是一位经验丰富、备受保险界尊敬的资深承保人。2014年，彼得扩大了他的精英团队，进军国际业务和新的保险险种。我们再次预测，BHSI将成为伯克希尔的重要资产，几年内承保规模将达到数十亿美元。",[773,1174],{},[14,1176,1177],{},"我们还有另一个再保险重镇——通用再保险（General Re），由塔德·蒙特罗斯（Tad Montross）管理。",[14,1179,1180,1181,1183],{},"从根本上说，一个稳健的保险公司需要遵守四条纪律。它必须：(1) 理解",[798,1182,1100],{},"可能导致保单产生损失的风险敞口；(2) 审慎评估每项风险实际造成损失的概率以及可能的赔付金额；(3) 设定合理的保费，使得平均而言在覆盖预期损失和运营费用后仍能获利；(4) 如果无法获得合适的保费，愿意放弃业务。",[14,1185,1186],{},"许多保险公司前三条做得不错，却在第四条上栽了跟头。他们就是无法拒绝竞争对手正在积极争抢的业务。那句老话——“别人都在做，我们也必须跟上”——在任何行业都会招致麻烦，但在保险业尤为致命。",[14,1188,1189],{},"塔德严守这四条戒律，这从他的业绩中一目了然。在他的领导下，通用再保险的巨额浮存金表现远好于零成本，我们预计平均而言这将持续下去。我们对通用再保险的国际人寿再保险业务尤为看好，自1998年我们收购该公司以来，这块业务一直在稳健增长并保持盈利。",[14,1191,1192],{},"想当年，我们收购通用再保险后不久，它就遭遇了一系列问题，让不少评论家——还有我自己，虽然只是短暂地——以为我犯了一个巨大的错误。那一页早已翻过。如今的通用再保险是一颗宝石。",[773,1194],{},[14,1196,1197,1198,1201],{},"最后是盖可保险（GEICO），64年前我正是从它身上入的行。GEICO由托尼·奈斯利（Tony Nicely）管理，他18岁就加入了公司，到2014年已经为公司效力了53年。1993年托尼成为CEO，此后公司就一路高歌猛进。",[798,1199,1200],{},"没有","比托尼更出色的经理了。",[14,1203,1204,1205,1208,1209,1212,1213,1216],{},"1951年1月，我第一次接触GEICO时，就被该公司相对于行业巨头们的巨大成本优势所震撼。在我看来很清楚，GEICO注定会成功，因为它",[798,1206,1207],{},"配得上","成功。没人",[798,1210,1211],{},"喜欢","买车险。但几乎所有人都喜欢开车。买车险因此成为大多数家庭的一大笔支出。省钱对他们很重要——而",[798,1214,1215],{},"只有","低成本的运营商才能帮他们省钱。事实上，至少有40%读这封信的人可以通过在GEICO投保来省钱。所以，先别读了，上geico.com或者打800-368-2734吧。",[14,1218,1219,1220,1222],{},"GEICO的成本优势是推动它年复一年持续扩大市场份额的关键因素。（1995年伯克希尔取得GEICO控制权时，市场份额为2.5%；2014年底已达10.8%。）公司的低成本打造了一条护城河——一条",[798,1221,995],{},"的护城河——竞争对手根本跨不过去。我们的壁虎（Gecko）吉祥物不知疲倦地告诉美国人GEICO能帮他们省下多少钱。我得说，这只小壁虎有一个特别讨人喜欢的品质——它免费工作。不像人类代言人，它从不因名声膨胀，也从来不会有经纪人不停提醒我们它有多值钱。我爱这个小家伙。",[773,1224],{},[14,1226,1227],{},"除了三大保险业务之外，我们还拥有一批较小的保险公司，其中大部分在保险行业的各个细分角落经营。作为一个整体，这些公司不断成长，并持续贡献承保盈利。事实上，过去十年中它们从承保业务赚取了29.5亿美元，同时浮存金从17亿美元增长到了86亿美元。查理和我非常珍视这些公司和它们的经理人。",[21,1229,1230,1248],{},[24,1231,1232],{},[27,1233,1234,1236,1239,1242,1245],{},[30,1235,999],{},[30,1237,1238],{},"2014年承保利润 (百万美元)",[30,1240,1241],{},"2013年承保利润 (百万美元)",[30,1243,1244],{},"2014年年末浮存金 (百万美元)",[30,1246,1247],{},"2013年年末浮存金 (百万美元)",[43,1249,1250,1267,1284,1301,1318],{},[27,1251,1252,1255,1258,1261,1264],{},[48,1253,1254],{},"伯克希尔再保险",[48,1256,1257],{},"$ 606",[48,1259,1260],{},"$ 1,294",[48,1262,1263],{},"$ 42,454",[48,1265,1266],{},"$ 37,231",[27,1268,1269,1272,1275,1278,1281],{},[48,1270,1271],{},"通用再保险",[48,1273,1274],{},"277",[48,1276,1277],{},"283",[48,1279,1280],{},"19,280",[48,1282,1283],{},"20,013",[27,1285,1286,1289,1292,1295,1298],{},[48,1287,1288],{},"盖可保险",[48,1290,1291],{},"1,159",[48,1293,1294],{},"1,127",[48,1296,1297],{},"13,569",[48,1299,1300],{},"12,566",[27,1302,1303,1306,1309,1312,1315],{},[48,1304,1305],{},"其他初级保险",[48,1307,1308],{},"626",[48,1310,1311],{},"385",[48,1313,1314],{},"8,618",[48,1316,1317],{},"7,430",[27,1319,1320,1323,1326,1329,1332],{},[48,1321,1322],{},"合计",[48,1324,1325],{},"$ 2,668",[48,1327,1328],{},"$ 3,089",[48,1330,1331],{},"$ 83,921",[48,1333,1334],{},"$ 77,240",[773,1336],{},[14,1338,1339],{},"简单来说，保险就是销售承诺。“客户”现在付钱，保险公司承诺在未来发生某些不希望发生的事情时支付赔款。",[14,1341,1342],{},"有时候，这些承诺可能几十年都不需要兑现。（想想20多岁的人买的人寿保险。）因此，保险公司的偿付能力和偿付意愿都至关重要——即使到了付款的时候经济一片混乱。",[14,1344,1345],{},"伯克希尔的承诺无可比拟，近年来全世界一些最大、最资深的财产保险公司用行动证实了这一点——它们希望摆脱规模巨大、期限超长的负债。也就是说，这些保险公司想把这些负债——主要是石棉索赔的潜在损失——“分出”给再保险公司。不过，它们需要找对人：如果再保险公司未能履约赔付，原保险公司仍然要承担责任。所以，如果选择的再保险公司日后陷入财务困境或者不守信用，原保险公司就面临着巨额负债重新回到自己头上的威胁。",[14,1347,1348],{},"去年，我们承保了一张保费高达30亿美元的保单，再次确认了我们在再保险领域的领头地位。据我所知，这张保单的规模仅次于我们2007年与劳合社（Lloyd’s）的交易——当时保费为71亿美元。",[14,1350,1351,1352,1355],{},"事实上，据我所知，历史上单笔保费超过10亿美元的财产意外险保单只有8张。没错，8张全是伯克希尔承保的。其中有些合约要求我们在50年甚至更久以后进行大额赔付。当大型保险公司需要一份无可质疑的赔付承诺时，伯克希尔是唯一的选择——",[798,1353,1354],{},"唯一","的选择。",[773,1357],{},[14,1359,1360],{},"伯克希尔优秀的经理人、卓越的财务实力、以及多条受宽阔护城河保护的业务线，在保险界构成了独一无二的组合。这些优势的集合对伯克希尔股东来说是一笔巨大的财富，而且随着时间推移只会越来越值钱。",[779,1362,1363],{"id":1363},"受监管的资本密集型业务",[14,1365,1366],{},"我们有两大业务——BNSF铁路和伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源（Berkshire Hathaway Energy，简称”BHE”）——它们共有的一些重要特征使其有别于我们的其他业务。因此，我们在这封信中单独介绍它们，并在GAAP资产负债表和利润表中分别列示它们的综合财务数据。",[14,1368,1369,1370,1373,1374,1377],{},"这两家公司的一个关键特征是，它们对期限很长的受监管资产进行了巨额投资，这些投资部分资金来自伯克希尔",[798,1371,1372],{},"不提供","担保的大额长期债务。事实上它们不需要我们的信用背书，因为即使在最糟糕的经济环境下，它们的盈利能力也远远超过利息支出。例如，去年BNSF的利息覆盖倍数超过8:1。（我们对覆盖倍数的定义是税前收益\u002F利息，",[798,1375,1376],{},"而非"," EBITDA\u002F利息——后者虽然被广泛使用，但我们认为存在严重缺陷。）",[14,1379,1380,1381,1384],{},"与此同时，BHE有两个因素确保了公司在任何情况下都有能力偿付债务。第一个是所有公用事业的共同特征：抗衰退的收益，因为这些公司提供的是独占性质的基本服务。第二个只有少数公用事业公司享有：高度多元化的收益来源，使我们免受任何单一监管机构的严重冲击。最近，我们通过以30亿加元收购AltaLink——一个为阿尔伯塔省（Alberta）85%人口提供服务的输电系统——进一步扩大了这一基础。多元化的利润来源，再加上背靠强大母公司的固有优势，使BHE及其公用事业子公司能够大幅降低债务成本。这对我们",[798,1382,1383],{},"和","我们的客户都有利。",[14,1386,1387],{},"每天，我们的这两家子公司都在以重要方式为美国经济输送动力：",[822,1389,1390],{},[825,1391,1392,1393,1395],{},"BNSF承载了全美约15%的城际货运量（按吨英里计），无论是公路、铁路、水运、空运还是管道运输。事实上，我们运送的货物吨英里数超过",[798,1394,1133],{},"人。这使BNSF成为美国经济循环系统中最重要的大动脉。",[14,1397,1398],{},"像所有铁路一样，BNSF还以极其节能和环保的方式运输货物——1加仑柴油可将1吨货物运输约500英里。卡车完成同样任务要消耗大约四倍的燃料。",[822,1400,1401],{},[825,1402,1403],{},"BHE的公用事业为11个州的零售客户提供服务。没有任何一家公用事业公司的服务范围比它更广。此外，我们是可再生能源领域的领导者：从十年前零起步，BHE如今贡献了全美6%的风力发电装机容量和7%的太阳能发电装机容量。除了这些业务，BHE还拥有两条大型天然气管道，输送全美8%的天然气消费量；最近收购的加拿大输电业务；以及在英国和菲律宾的大型电力业务。而且这列火车还在前进：未来数十年我们将在世界各地继续收购和建设公用事业。",[14,1405,1406,1407,1409],{},"BHE之所以能做出这些投资，是因为它保留了",[798,1408,1111],{},"收益。事实上，去年BHE留存的收益——遥遥领先——超过了美国任何其他电力公司。我们和监管机构都认为这种100%留存收益的政策是一项重要优势——几乎可以肯定，它将使BHE在未来许多年中有别于其他公用事业公司。",[14,1411,1412],{},"当BHE完成目前在建的可再生能源项目后，公司的可再生能源资产组合总投资将达到150亿美元。此外，我们还有在建的传统项目，也要花费数十亿美元。只要它们能带来合理回报，我们乐于做出这样的投入——在这方面，我们对未来的监管环境寄予了很大的信任。",[14,1414,1415],{},"我们的信心来自过去的经验，也来自这样一个认知：社会将永远需要在交通和能源领域进行大规模投资。以确保资金持续流向关键项目的方式对待资本提供者，符合政府的自身利益。同样，以赢得监管机构及其所代表的民众认可的方式开展运营，也符合我们的自身利益。",[14,1417,1418],{},"去年，BHE一如既往地完全实现了这一目标。我们的费率保持低水平，客户满意度很高，员工安全记录也是行业内最优秀的。",[14,1420,1421],{},"然而正如我之前提到的，2014年BNSF的情况不尽如人意——这一年铁路令许多客户失望。尽管BNSF近年来的资本支出创下新高、远超主要竞争对手联合太平洋铁路（Union Pacific），这个问题还是出现了。",[14,1423,1424],{},"两家铁路公司以收入衡量规模大致相当，不过我们的货运量更多（无论按车辆数还是吨英里计）。但去年我们的服务问题比联合太平洋更严重，因此我们失去了部分市场份额。此外，联合太平洋的盈利超过我们的幅度创下纪录。显然，我们还有很多工作要做。",[14,1426,1427],{},"我们没有浪费时间：正如我之前所说，我们将在2015年花费60亿美元改善铁路运营。这笔钱预计占收入的26%左右（这是行业通用的衡量标准）。如此规模的支出在铁路业几乎闻所未闻。作为对比，我们在2009-2013年的平均水平是18%，而联合太平洋近期的计划是16-17%。我们的巨额投资将很快打造出运力更大、服务更好的系统。利润改善也应随之而来。",[14,1429,1430],{},"以下是伯克希尔能源和BNSF的主要财务数据：",[21,1432,1433,1449],{},[24,1434,1435],{},[27,1436,1437,1440,1443,1446],{},[30,1438,1439],{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源 (持股89.9%)",[30,1441,1442],{},"2014年收益 (百万美元)",[30,1444,1445],{},"2013年收益 (百万美元)",[30,1447,1448],{},"2012年收益 (百万美元)",[43,1450,1451,1465,1479,1492,1506,1519,1532,1545,1559,1573,1587,1601],{},[27,1452,1453,1456,1459,1462],{},[48,1454,1455],{},"英国公用事业",[48,1457,1458],{},"$ 527",[48,1460,1461],{},"$ 362",[48,1463,1464],{},"$ 429",[27,1466,1467,1470,1473,1476],{},[48,1468,1469],{},"爱荷华公用事业",[48,1471,1472],{},"298",[48,1474,1475],{},"230",[48,1477,1478],{},"236",[27,1480,1481,1484,1487,1490],{},[48,1482,1483],{},"内华达公用事业",[48,1485,1486],{},"549",[48,1488,1489],{},"–",[48,1491,1489],{},[27,1493,1494,1497,1500,1503],{},[48,1495,1496],{},"太平洋电力 (主要在俄勒冈和犹他)",[48,1498,1499],{},"1,010",[48,1501,1502],{},"982",[48,1504,1505],{},"737",[27,1507,1508,1511,1514,1516],{},[48,1509,1510],{},"天然气管道 (Northern Natural和Kern River)",[48,1512,1513],{},"379",[48,1515,1311],{},[48,1517,1518],{},"383",[27,1520,1521,1524,1527,1529],{},[48,1522,1523],{},"HomeServices",[48,1525,1526],{},"139",[48,1528,1526],{},[48,1530,1531],{},"82",[27,1533,1534,1537,1539,1542],{},[48,1535,1536],{},"其他 (净额)",[48,1538,1478],{},[48,1540,1541],{},"4",[48,1543,1544],{},"91",[27,1546,1547,1550,1553,1556],{},[48,1548,1549],{},"企业利息和税前经营收益",[48,1551,1552],{},"3,138",[48,1554,1555],{},"2,102",[48,1557,1558],{},"1,958",[27,1560,1561,1564,1567,1570],{},[48,1562,1563],{},"利息",[48,1565,1566],{},"427",[48,1568,1569],{},"296",[48,1571,1572],{},"314",[27,1574,1575,1578,1581,1584],{},[48,1576,1577],{},"所得税",[48,1579,1580],{},"616",[48,1582,1583],{},"170",[48,1585,1586],{},"172",[27,1588,1589,1592,1595,1598],{},[48,1590,1591],{},"净收益",[48,1593,1594],{},"$ 2,095",[48,1596,1597],{},"$ 1,636",[48,1599,1600],{},"$ 1,472",[27,1602,1603,1606,1609,1612],{},[48,1604,1605],{},"归属伯克希尔收益",[48,1607,1608],{},"$ 1,882",[48,1610,1611],{},"$ 1,470",[48,1613,1614],{},"$ 1,323",[21,1616,1617,1633],{},[24,1618,1619],{},[27,1620,1621,1624,1627,1630],{},[30,1622,1623],{},"BNSF",[30,1625,1626],{},"2014年 (百万美元)",[30,1628,1629],{},"2013年 (百万美元)",[30,1631,1632],{},"2012年 (百万美元)",[43,1634,1635,1649,1663,1677,1691,1704],{},[27,1636,1637,1640,1643,1646],{},[48,1638,1639],{},"收入",[48,1641,1642],{},"$ 23,239",[48,1644,1645],{},"$ 22,014",[48,1647,1648],{},"$ 20,835",[27,1650,1651,1654,1657,1660],{},[48,1652,1653],{},"运营费用",[48,1655,1656],{},"16,237",[48,1658,1659],{},"15,357",[48,1661,1662],{},"14,835",[27,1664,1665,1668,1671,1674],{},[48,1666,1667],{},"利息和税前经营收益",[48,1669,1670],{},"7,002",[48,1672,1673],{},"6,657",[48,1675,1676],{},"6,000",[27,1678,1679,1682,1685,1688],{},[48,1680,1681],{},"利息 (净额)",[48,1683,1684],{},"833",[48,1686,1687],{},"729",[48,1689,1690],{},"623",[27,1692,1693,1695,1698,1701],{},[48,1694,1577],{},[48,1696,1697],{},"2,300",[48,1699,1700],{},"2,135",[48,1702,1703],{},"2,005",[27,1705,1706,1708,1711,1714],{},[48,1707,1591],{},[48,1709,1710],{},"$ 3,869",[48,1712,1713],{},"$ 3,793",[48,1715,1716],{},"$ 3,372",[779,1718,1720],{"id":1719},"制造服务和零售业务","制造、服务和零售业务",[14,1722,1723],{},"我们在这一板块的业务包罗万象。不过先让我们看看整个集团的资产负债表和利润表摘要。",[14,1725,1726],{},[17,1727,1728],{},"资产负债表 2014年12月31日 (百万美元)",[21,1730,1731,1746],{},[24,1732,1733],{},[27,1734,1735,1738,1741,1744],{},[30,1736,1737],{},"资产",[30,1739,1740],{},"金额",[30,1742,1743],{},"负债和权益",[30,1745,1740],{},[43,1747,1748,1762,1776,1790,1802,1814,1828,1842,1856,1868],{},[27,1749,1750,1753,1756,1759],{},[48,1751,1752],{},"现金及等价物",[48,1754,1755],{},"$ 5,765",[48,1757,1758],{},"应付票据",[48,1760,1761],{},"$ 965",[27,1763,1764,1767,1770,1773],{},[48,1765,1766],{},"应收账款及票据",[48,1768,1769],{},"8,264",[48,1771,1772],{},"其他流动负债",[48,1774,1775],{},"9,734",[27,1777,1778,1781,1784,1787],{},[48,1779,1780],{},"存货",[48,1782,1783],{},"10,236",[48,1785,1786],{},"流动负债合计",[48,1788,1789],{},"10,699",[27,1791,1792,1795,1798,1800],{},[48,1793,1794],{},"其他流动资产",[48,1796,1797],{},"1,117",[48,1799],{},[48,1801],{},[27,1803,1804,1807,1810,1812],{},[48,1805,1806],{},"流动资产合计",[48,1808,1809],{},"25,382",[48,1811],{},[48,1813],{},[27,1815,1816,1819,1822,1825],{},[48,1817,1818],{},"商誉及其他无形资产",[48,1820,1821],{},"28,107",[48,1823,1824],{},"递延税款",[48,1826,1827],{},"3,801",[27,1829,1830,1833,1836,1839],{},[48,1831,1832],{},"固定资产",[48,1834,1835],{},"13,806",[48,1837,1838],{},"长期债务及其他负债",[48,1840,1841],{},"4,269",[27,1843,1844,1847,1850,1853],{},[48,1845,1846],{},"其他资产",[48,1848,1849],{},"3,793",[48,1851,1852],{},"少数股东权益",[48,1854,1855],{},"492",[27,1857,1858,1860,1862,1865],{},[48,1859],{},[48,1861],{},[48,1863,1864],{},"伯克希尔权益",[48,1866,1867],{},"51,827",[27,1869,1870,1872,1875,1877],{},[48,1871],{},[48,1873,1874],{},"$ 71,088",[48,1876],{},[48,1878,1874],{},[14,1880,1881],{},[17,1882,1883],{},"利润表",[21,1885,1886,1901],{},[24,1887,1888],{},[27,1889,1890,1893,1895,1898],{},[30,1891,1892],{},"(百万美元)",[30,1894,720],{},[30,1896,1897],{},"2013*",[30,1899,1900],{},"2012*",[43,1902,1903,1916,1929,1943,1957,1971],{},[27,1904,1905,1907,1910,1913],{},[48,1906,1639],{},[48,1908,1909],{},"$ 97,689",[48,1911,1912],{},"$ 93,472",[48,1914,1915],{},"$ 81,432",[27,1917,1918,1920,1923,1926],{},[48,1919,1653],{},[48,1921,1922],{},"90,788",[48,1924,1925],{},"87,208",[48,1927,1928],{},"75,734",[27,1930,1931,1934,1937,1940],{},[48,1932,1933],{},"利息费用",[48,1935,1936],{},"109",[48,1938,1939],{},"104",[48,1941,1942],{},"112",[27,1944,1945,1948,1951,1954],{},[48,1946,1947],{},"税前收益",[48,1949,1950],{},"6,792",[48,1952,1953],{},"6,160",[48,1955,1956],{},"5,586",[27,1958,1959,1962,1965,1968],{},[48,1960,1961],{},"所得税及少数股东权益",[48,1963,1964],{},"2,324",[48,1966,1967],{},"2,283",[48,1969,1970],{},"2,229",[27,1972,1973,1975,1978,1981],{},[48,1974,1591],{},[48,1976,1977],{},"$ 4,468",[48,1979,1980],{},"$ 3,877",[48,1982,1983],{},"$ 3,357",[822,1985,1986],{},[825,1987,1988],{},"2012年和2013年的收益已重新列报，不包括马蒙集团的租赁业务，该业务现已纳入金融和金融产品板块。",[14,1990,1991],{},"我们符合GAAP准则的收入和费用数据见完整年报第49页。相比之下，上面的运营费用是非GAAP数据，排除了一些购买法会计调整项目（主要是某些无形资产的摊销）。我们之所以这样呈现数据，是因为查理和我认为调整后的数字比GAAP数字更准确地反映了这些汇总业务的真实经济费用和利润。",[14,1993,1994,1995,1998],{},"我不打算解释所有调整——有些数额很小且比较深奥——但认真的投资者应该理解无形资产的不同性质。有些无形资产确实会随时间损耗，而有些则",[798,1996,1997],{},"完全","不会贬值。以软件为例，摊销费用是非常真实的费用。然而对于另一些无形资产——比如客户关系的摊销——它产生于购买法会计规则，显然并不反映现实。GAAP会计准则对这两类费用不作区分。也就是说，在计算收益时，两者都被记为费用——即使从投资者的角度看，它们的差异再大不过了。",[14,2000,2001],{},"在完整年报第49页符合GAAP准则的数据中，11.5亿美元的摊销费用已作为费用扣除。我们认为其中约20%是”真实的”，其余的不是。这些”非真实”费用曾经在伯克希尔几乎不存在，但由于我们进行了大量收购，如今已变得很可观。随着我们继续收购更多公司，非真实摊销费用几乎肯定会进一步上升。",[14,2003,2004],{},"完整年报第67页列示了我们无形资产的现状。我们目前还有74亿美元待摊销，其中41亿美元将在未来五年内摊销完毕。当然，最终每一美元的非真实费用都会全部扣除完毕。到那时，即使真实收益保持不变，报告收益也会增长。",[14,2006,2007],{},"但我们要强调，折旧费用不一样：我们报告的每一分钱折旧都是真实成本。对大多数其他公司来说也是如此。当某个CEO吹嘘EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）是估值标准时，请把他绑到测谎仪上。",[14,2009,2010],{},"当然，我们对外公布的收益报告将继续遵守GAAP准则。然而，为了认清现实，你应该记住把我们报告的大部分摊销费用加回来。",[773,2012],{},[14,2014,2015,2016,2019],{},"回到我们众多的制造、服务和零售业务。它们销售的产品从棒棒糖到喷气飞机无所不包。按未加杠杆的净",[798,2017,2018],{},"有形","资产收益率衡量，这个板块中有些业务的经济效益极佳，税后利润率从25%到远超100%不等。另一些业务的回报率在12%到20%之间也相当不错。不过，也有少数业务回报率非常低，那是我在资本配置上犯的一些严重错误的结果。我没有被误导，只是在评估公司或行业的经济动态时判断失误了。",[14,2021,2022],{},"幸运的是，我的失误通常只涉及相对较小的收购。我们的大型收购整体表现良好，个别甚至非常出色。但我在购买企业或股票时还没犯完最后一个错误。并非所有事情都能按计划进行。",[14,2024,2025],{},"作为一个整体来看，这个板块是一家优秀企业。2014年，它们平均使用了240亿美元的净有形资产，尽管持有大量超额现金且几乎没有使用杠杆，税后资本回报率依然高达18.7%。",[14,2027,2028,2029,2032],{},"当然，再好的企业如果买贵了，也可能是一笔糟糕的投资。我们为大多数业务的净有形资产支付了可观的溢价，这一成本反映在我们报告的巨额商誉数字中。不过总体而言，我们在这个板块投入的资本获得了体面的回报。而且，这些业务的合计内在价值远超账面价值，这个溢价还可能进一步扩大。即便如此，保险板块和受监管行业板块的内在价值与账面价值之间的差距",[798,2030,2031],{},"远远更大","。真正的大赢家就在那里。",[773,2034],{},[14,2036,2037],{},"这个板块的公司太多了，无法逐一评论。何况它们的竞争对手——无论是现有的还是潜在的——都会阅读这份报告。在我们的某些业务中，如果别人知道了我们的数据，我们可能会处于不利地位。因此，对于那些规模不足以实质性影响伯克希尔价值评估的业务，我们只披露必须披露的内容。不过你可以在完整年报的第97-100页找到许多业务的详细信息。",[779,2039,2040],{"id":2040},"金融和金融产品",[14,2042,2043],{},"今年我们把马蒙集团相当可观的租赁业务纳入了这个板块，其业务包括铁路车辆、集装箱和起重机。我们还重列了前两年的数据以反映这一调整。为什么要这么做？以前马蒙有大量的少数股东权益，所以我觉得把公司所有业务放在一起更便于理解。如今我们几乎拥有马蒙100%的股权，因此我认为将马蒙的租赁业务归入这个板块能让你对我们的各项业务有更清晰的认识。（马蒙其他数十项业务的数据仍留在前一个板块。）",[14,2045,2046],{},"我们的其他租赁和出租业务由科特商业服务（CORT，家具租赁）和XTRA（半挂车租赁）经营。这些公司都是行业领导者，随着美国经济走强，它们的收益大幅提升。两家公司在新设备上的投资都超过了许多竞争对手，这正在带来回报。",[14,2048,2049],{},"凯文·克莱顿（Kevin Clayton）再次带领全美最大的住宅建造商克莱顿之家（Clayton Homes）取得了行业领先的业绩。去年，克莱顿售出30,871套住宅，约占美国人购买的预制房总数的45%。2003年我们以17亿美元收购克莱顿时，其市场份额仅为14%。",[14,2051,2052],{},"克莱顿盈利的关键在于公司130亿美元的抵押贷款组合。2008-2009年金融恐慌期间，行业融资枯竭，但克莱顿凭借伯克希尔的支持得以继续放贷。事实上，在那段时期，我们不仅为自己的零售业务提供资金，还为竞争对手的零售业务提供融资。",[14,2054,2055],{},"克莱顿的许多借款人收入不高，FICO信用评分也一般。但得益于公司明智的贷款做法，其贷款组合在经济衰退期间表现良好，这意味着我们绝大多数借款人保住了自己的房子。事实证明，在许多情况下，我们的蓝领借款人比那些高收入的同胞信用风险更低。",[14,2057,2058],{},"在马蒙的铁路车辆业务中，过去几年租赁费率显著改善。但该业务的特点是，每年只有大约20%的租约到期。因此，定价改善只会逐步反映在我们的收入中。不过趋势非常强劲。我们拥有10.5万辆的车队主要由罐车组成，但其中只有8%用于运输原油。",[14,2060,2061,2062,2064],{},"关于我们的铁路车辆业务还有一个重要事实需要你了解：与许多其他租赁商不同，我们自己生产罐车，好年景可生产约6,000辆。当我们将车辆从制造部门转入租赁部门时，不会记录",[798,2063,1133],{},"利润。因此，我们的车队以”折扣价”入账。这个数字与”零售价”之间的差额，只是通过车辆30年使用寿命期间较低的年度折旧费用慢慢体现在收益中。由于这个原因及其他因素，马蒙铁路车队的价值远超其50亿美元的账面价值。",[14,2066,2067],{},"以下是该板块的税前收益数据：",[21,2069,2070,2082],{},[24,2071,2072],{},[27,2073,2074,2076,2078,2080],{},[30,2075,1892],{},[30,2077,720],{},[30,2079,707],{},[30,2081,693],{},[43,2083,2084,2098,2112,2126,2140,2154,2168,2181],{},[27,2085,2086,2089,2092,2095],{},[48,2087,2088],{},"Berkadia (我们占50%)",[48,2090,2091],{},"$ 122",[48,2093,2094],{},"$ 80",[48,2096,2097],{},"$ 35",[27,2099,2100,2103,2106,2109],{},[48,2101,2102],{},"克莱顿",[48,2104,2105],{},"558",[48,2107,2108],{},"416",[48,2110,2111],{},"255",[27,2113,2114,2117,2120,2123],{},[48,2115,2116],{},"科特商业服务",[48,2118,2119],{},"36",[48,2121,2122],{},"40",[48,2124,2125],{},"42",[27,2127,2128,2131,2134,2137],{},[48,2129,2130],{},"马蒙——集装箱和起重机",[48,2132,2133],{},"238",[48,2135,2136],{},"226",[48,2138,2139],{},"246",[27,2141,2142,2145,2148,2151],{},[48,2143,2144],{},"马蒙——铁路车辆",[48,2146,2147],{},"442",[48,2149,2150],{},"353",[48,2152,2153],{},"299",[27,2155,2156,2159,2162,2165],{},[48,2157,2158],{},"XTRA",[48,2160,2161],{},"147",[48,2163,2164],{},"125",[48,2166,2167],{},"106",[27,2169,2170,2173,2175,2178],{},[48,2171,2172],{},"净金融收入*",[48,2174,1569],{},[48,2176,2177],{},"324",[48,2179,2180],{},"410",[27,2182,2183,2185,2188,2191],{},[48,2184,1322],{},[48,2186,2187],{},"$ 1,839",[48,2189,2190],{},"$ 1,564",[48,2192,2193],{},"$ 1,393",[822,2195,2196],{},[825,2197,2198],{},"不含资本利得或损失",[779,2200,2201],{"id":2201},"投资业务",[14,2203,2204],{},"以下是截至年末，伯克希尔持有的市值最大的15只普通股投资。",[21,2206,2207,2226],{},[24,2208,2209],{},[27,2210,2211,2214,2217,2220,2223],{},[30,2212,2213],{},"股数**",[30,2215,2216],{},"公司",[30,2218,2219],{},"持股比例",[30,2221,2222],{},"2014\u002F12\u002F31 成本* (百万美元)",[30,2224,2225],{},"2014\u002F12\u002F31 市值 (百万美元)",[43,2227,2228,2245,2262,2279,2296,2312,2329,2346,2363,2380,2397,2414,2431,2448,2464,2481,2496],{},[27,2229,2230,2233,2236,2239,2242],{},[48,2231,2232],{},"151,610,700",[48,2234,2235],{},"美国运通公司",[48,2237,2238],{},"14.8",[48,2240,2241],{},"$ 1,287",[48,2243,2244],{},"$ 14,106",[27,2246,2247,2250,2253,2256,2259],{},[48,2248,2249],{},"400,000,000",[48,2251,2252],{},"可口可乐公司",[48,2254,2255],{},"9.2",[48,2257,2258],{},"1,299",[48,2260,2261],{},"16,888",[27,2263,2264,2267,2270,2273,2276],{},[48,2265,2266],{},"18,513,482",[48,2268,2269],{},"达维塔医疗合伙公司",[48,2271,2272],{},"8.6",[48,2274,2275],{},"843",[48,2277,2278],{},"1,402",[27,2280,2281,2284,2287,2290,2293],{},[48,2282,2283],{},"15,430,586",[48,2285,2286],{},"迪尔公司",[48,2288,2289],{},"4.5",[48,2291,2292],{},"1,253",[48,2294,2295],{},"1,365",[27,2297,2298,2301,2304,2306,2309],{},[48,2299,2300],{},"24,617,939",[48,2302,2303],{},"DIRECTV",[48,2305,610],{},[48,2307,2308],{},"1,454",[48,2310,2311],{},"2,134",[27,2313,2314,2317,2320,2323,2326],{},[48,2315,2316],{},"13,062,594",[48,2318,2319],{},"高盛集团",[48,2321,2322],{},"3.0",[48,2324,2325],{},"750",[48,2327,2328],{},"2,532",[27,2330,2331,2334,2337,2340,2343],{},[48,2332,2333],{},"76,971,817",[48,2335,2336],{},"国际商业机器公司 (IBM)",[48,2338,2339],{},"7.8",[48,2341,2342],{},"13,157",[48,2344,2345],{},"12,349",[27,2347,2348,2351,2354,2357,2360],{},[48,2349,2350],{},"24,669,778",[48,2352,2353],{},"穆迪公司",[48,2355,2356],{},"12.1",[48,2358,2359],{},"248",[48,2361,2362],{},"2,364",[27,2364,2365,2368,2371,2374,2377],{},[48,2366,2367],{},"20,060,390",[48,2369,2370],{},"慕尼黑再保险",[48,2372,2373],{},"11.8",[48,2375,2376],{},"2,990",[48,2378,2379],{},"4,023",[27,2381,2382,2385,2388,2391,2394],{},[48,2383,2384],{},"52,477,678",[48,2386,2387],{},"宝洁公司",[48,2389,2390],{},"1.9",[48,2392,2393],{},"336",[48,2395,2396],{},"4,683***",[27,2398,2399,2402,2405,2408,2411],{},[48,2400,2401],{},"22,169,930",[48,2403,2404],{},"赛诺菲",[48,2406,2407],{},"1.7",[48,2409,2410],{},"1,721",[48,2412,2413],{},"2,032",[27,2415,2416,2419,2422,2425,2428],{},[48,2417,2418],{},"96,890,665",[48,2420,2421],{},"美国合众银行",[48,2423,2424],{},"5.4",[48,2426,2427],{},"3,033",[48,2429,2430],{},"4,355",[27,2432,2433,2436,2439,2442,2445],{},[48,2434,2435],{},"43,387,980",[48,2437,2438],{},"美国石膏公司 (USG)",[48,2440,2441],{},"30.0",[48,2443,2444],{},"836",[48,2446,2447],{},"1,214",[27,2449,2450,2453,2456,2458,2461],{},[48,2451,2452],{},"67,707,544",[48,2454,2455],{},"沃尔玛",[48,2457,688],{},[48,2459,2460],{},"3,798",[48,2462,2463],{},"5,815",[27,2465,2466,2469,2472,2475,2478],{},[48,2467,2468],{},"483,470,853",[48,2470,2471],{},"富国银行",[48,2473,2474],{},"9.4",[48,2476,2477],{},"11,871",[48,2479,2480],{},"26,504",[27,2482,2483,2485,2488,2490,2493],{},[48,2484],{},[48,2486,2487],{},"其他",[48,2489],{},[48,2491,2492],{},"10,180",[48,2494,2495],{},"15,704",[27,2497,2498,2500,2503,2505,2508],{},[48,2499],{},[48,2501,2502],{},"按市值计价的普通股合计",[48,2504],{},[48,2506,2507],{},"$ 55,056",[48,2509,2510],{},"$ 117,470",[822,2512,2513],{},[825,2514,2515],{},"这是我们的实际购买价格，也是我们的计税基础；GAAP”成本”在少数情况下有所不同，因为GAAP规则要求对某些资产进行增值或减值调整。",[14,2517,2518],{},"** 不包括伯克希尔子公司养老金持有的股份。",[14,2520,2521],{},"*** 按销售合同持有，金额即为此数。",[14,2523,2524],{},"伯克希尔还有一个重大股权投资未包含在上表中：我们可以在2021年9月之前的任何时间以50亿美元购买7亿股美国银行（Bank of America）股票。截至年末，这些股票价值125亿美元。我们很可能会在期权到期前行权。同时，你需要知道，美国银行实际上是我们的第四大股权投资——也是我们非常重视的一项投资。",[773,2526],{},[14,2528,2529,2530,2533],{},"细心的读者会注意到，去年出现在我们最大普通股投资名单上的乐购（Tesco）如今已经消失了。坦率地说——我挺不好意思的——一位",[798,2531,2532],{},"专注","的投资者早就该卖掉乐购的股票。我在这笔投资上犯了一个大错，错在拖拖拉拉。",[14,2535,2536],{},"2012年底，我们持有4.15亿股乐购股票。当时（现在也是），乐购是英国最大的食品零售商，在其他国家也是一家重要的食杂商。我们这笔投资的成本是23亿美元，市值也大致相当。",[14,2538,2539],{},"2013年，我对乐购当时的管理层有些不满，于是卖出了1.14亿股，实现了4,300万美元的收益。事后证明，我慢吞吞的卖出节奏代价高昂。查理管这种行为叫”吮拇指”。（考虑到我的拖延给我们造成的损失，他这么说已经算客气了。）",[14,2541,2542],{},"2014年，乐购的问题逐月恶化。公司市场份额下滑，利润率萎缩，会计问题浮出水面。在商界，坏消息往往是接踵而至的：你在厨房里看到一只蟑螂，过几天就会碰上它的亲戚。",[14,2544,2545],{},"我们全年都在卖出乐购股票，现在已经彻底清仓了。（应该提一句，这家公司已经聘用了新的管理层，我们祝他们一切顺利。）我们这笔投资的税后亏损为4.44亿美元，约占伯克希尔净资产的0.2%。在过去50年中，我们只有一次投资在卖出时的亏损达到净资产的2%。另外有两次亏损达到1%。这三次亏损都发生在1974-1975年间，当时我们以很低的价格卖出股票，是为了买进我们认为更便宜的股票。",[773,2547],{},[14,2549,2550],{},"我们的投资业绩受益于一股强劲的顺风。1964-2014年间，标普500指数从84点涨至2,059点，加上股息再投资，产生了首页所示的11,196%的总回报。与此同时，美元的购买力惊人地下降了87%。这意味着1965年花13美分就能买到的东西，现在需要花1美元（根据消费者价格指数衡量）。",[14,2552,2553,2554,2557],{},"股票和美元之间的巨大表现差异向投资者传递了一个重要信息。回想我们2011年的年度报告，我们在其中将投资定义为”现在将购买力让渡给他人，同时合理预期在未来——",[798,2555,2556],{},"在为名义收益缴税之后","——获得更多的购买力。”",[14,2559,2560,2561,2564],{},"从过去50年可以得出一个非传统但不可回避的结论：投资于多元化的美国企业组合，比投资于价值与美元挂钩的证券——比如国债——",[798,2562,2563],{},"安全得多","。之前的半个世纪也是如此，那个时期还包括了大萧条和两次世界大战。投资者应当铭记这段历史。在某种程度上，它几乎肯定会在下一个世纪重演。",[14,2566,2567,2568,2571,2572,2575,2576,2579,2580,2583],{},"股票价格的波动性永远会远大于现金等价物。",[798,2569,2570],{},"但从长期来看","，以货币计价的投资工具才是",[798,2573,2574],{},"更危险","的投资——",[798,2577,2578],{},"危险得多","——相比之下，随着时间推移买入的广泛多元化的股票组合，且只需支付象征性的费用和佣金，风险要小得多。商学院通常不教这个道理，在那里波动性几乎被普遍用来代替风险。虽然这种教学假设让授课变得容易，但大错特错：波动性",[798,2581,2582],{},"远非","风险的同义词。将两者等同起来的流行公式误导了学生、投资者和CEO们。",[14,2585,2586],{},"当然，持有股票一天、一周或一年（无论从名义值还是购买力衡量），风险确实远高于把钱放在现金等价物中。这对某些投资者——比如投行——是很重要的，因为它们的生存可能受到资产价格下跌的威胁，并可能在市场低迷时被迫出售证券。此外，任何可能有重大近期资金需求的人都应该在国债或有保险的银行存款中保留适当的资金。",[14,2588,2589,2590,2593,2594,2597],{},"然而对绝大多数投资者来说——他们能够",[798,2591,2592],{},"也应该","以数十年的视角来投资——股价的涨跌并不重要。他们应当始终聚焦于在整个投资生涯中获得购买力的大幅增长。对他们来说，",[798,2595,2596],{},"随时间推移逐步买入","的多元化股票组合，将被证明风险远低于以美元计价的证券。",[14,2599,2600],{},"相反，如果投资者害怕价格波动，错误地将其视为风险的衡量标准，那么具有讽刺意味的是，他反而可能会做一些非常冒险的事情。如果你愿意回忆一下：六年前，那些专家们哀叹股价下跌，建议投资于”安全”的国债或银行存单。听了这些说教的人如今只能拿到微薄的回报，而他们原本指望这笔钱能为自己的退休生活提供保障。（标普500当时不到700点；现在约2,100点。）如果不是害怕那些毫无意义的价格波动，这些投资者当时只需买入一只低成本的指数基金，就能确保终生获得丰厚的收入——因为这些基金的股息会逐年增长，本金也会增值（当然中间会有很多起伏）。",[14,2602,2603,2604,2607,2608,2611,2612,2615,2616,2619],{},"当然，投资者",[798,2605,2606],{},"自己的行为","可以使持有股票变成一件非常危险的事情。而且很多人确实这么做了。频繁交易、试图”择时”把握市场走势、不充分的分散投资、向基金经理和顾问支付高昂且不必要的费用、以及使用借来的钱——这些行为都可能毁掉一个终生持股者原本可以享有的可观回报。事实上，借来的钱在投资者的工具箱里",[798,2609,2610],{},"没有位置","：市场上",[798,2613,2614],{},"任何事","都可能在",[798,2617,2618],{},"任何时候","发生。没有任何顾问、经济学家或电视评论员——当然也包括查理和我——能告诉你混乱什么时候会发生。市场预测专家只能灌满你的耳朵，却永远灌不满你的钱包。",[14,2621,2622],{},"上面列出的投资罪孽并不只限于”散户”。作为一个群体，大型机构投资者长期以来的表现一直跑不赢那些简单买入并坐等数十年的指数基金投资者。一个主要原因就是费用：许多机构向咨询公司支付巨额费用，而这些咨询公司又推荐收费高昂的基金经理。这是一个愚蠢的游戏。",[14,2624,2625,2626,2629],{},"当然，也有少数投资经理确实非常优秀——尽管短期内很难判断一份出色的业绩记录是源于运气还是才华。但大多数投资顾问收取高额费用的本领远超其创造高额回报的能力。说白了，他们的核心竞争力是销售能力。投资者们——无论大小——不要听他们的花言巧语，而应该读一读杰克·博格尔（Jack Bogle）的《投资稳赚》（",[798,2627,2628],{},"The Little Book of Common Sense Investing","）。",[14,2631,2632],{},"几十年前，本杰明·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）就一针见血地指出了投资失败的根源，他引用了莎士比亚的名言：“亲爱的布鲁图斯，错不在星辰，而在我们自身。”",[779,2634,2635],{"id":2635},"年度股东大会",[14,2637,2638],{},"年度股东大会将于5月2日（周六）在CenturyLink中心举行。去年3.9万人的出席人数创下纪录，我们预计今年庆祝50周年金色纪念日时人数会再创新高。请在早上7点开门时到场。",[14,2640,2641],{},"伯克希尔的才女嘉莉·索瓦（Carrie Sova）将再次负责筹办。六年前，24岁的嘉莉以秘书身份加入我们。四年前，我请她负责年会——一项需要多种技能的艰巨工作——她欣然接受了挑战。嘉莉沉着冷静、足智多谋，善于激发与她合作的数百名工作人员的最佳状态。我们总部全体员工都乐于加入，一起为股东们打造一个充满乐趣和信息量的周末。",[14,2643,2644],{},"没错，我们还会趁股东来访时向他们推销产品。事实上，今年我们将大幅延长购物时间：5月1日（周五）中午至下午5点CenturyLink中心就开始营业，加上会议当天照常的早上7点至下午4点。让查理脸上露出笑容的办法——使劲买。",[14,2646,2647],{},"周六早上要早起。早上6:20，诺曼（Norman）和杰克（Jake）——两头各重约一吨的得克萨斯长角牛——将沿第十大街走向CenturyLink中心。牛背上坐着我们Justin Boot公司的两位高管，他们同时兼任牛仔。长角牛后面，四匹马拉着一辆富国银行的驿站马车。伯克希尔旗下已经有了飞机、火车和汽车。加上长角牛和马车，我们作为美国全能交通公司的地位就稳了。",[14,2649,2650],{},"周六上午约7:30，我们将举办第四届国际扔报纸挑战赛。目标仍然是一个克莱顿之家的门廊，距投掷线刚好35英尺。当我十几岁的时候——那是我唯一一次短暂体验诚实劳动——我投递了大约50万份报纸。所以我觉得自己相当不错。来挑战我！让我出丑！打败我！谁扔得比我更准，我请他吃一根Dilly Bar冰淇淋。报纸有36到42页厚，你必须自己折好（不准用橡皮筋）。我还会为12岁及以下参赛者中表现最佳的人颁发特别奖。黛布·博萨内克（Deb Bosanek）担任裁判。",[14,2652,2653],{},"上午8:30放映一部关于伯克希尔的新电影。一小时后，我们将开始问答环节，一直持续到下午3:30（中午在CenturyLink中心的摊位午餐）。短暂休息后，查理和我将在3:45召开正式年会。这个商务环节通常只持续半小时左右。",[14,2655,2656],{},"购物区设在毗邻会场的194,300平方英尺大厅，伯克希尔数十家子公司的产品都在那里出售。如果你周五没买够，趁周六查理在讲话时溜出去尽情血拼。别忘了看看出色的BNSF铁路模型展。尽管我已经84岁了，它依然让我兴奋不已。",[14,2658,2659],{},"去年你们作为购物者尽了自己的一份力，我们大多数摊位的销售额都创下了纪录。在周六的9个小时里，我们售出了1,385双Justin皮靴（每23秒一双）、13,440磅喜诗糖果、7,276双Wells Lamont工作手套和10,000瓶亨氏番茄酱。亨氏出了新款芥末酱，所以今年芥末和番茄酱都有。（两样都买！）今年周五就开卖了，我们预计各个柜台的销售都将再创纪录。",[14,2661,2662],{},"布鲁克斯（Brooks）跑鞋公司将再次推出年会纪念版跑鞋。买了以后，第二天早上8点穿着它参加我们的第三届”伯克希尔5公里”长跑，起点在CenturyLink中心。参赛的详细信息将随你的入场证一起寄出的参会指南中说明。你将有机会与伯克希尔的许多经理人、董事和同事一起跑步。（不过查理和我会睡懒觉。）",[14,2664,2665],{},"购物区的盖可保险展台将有来自全美各地的顶级保险顾问为你服务。过来问问报价吧。在大多数情况下，盖可保险会给你一个股东专属折扣（通常为8%）。我们运营的51个行政区域中有44个批准了这项特别优惠。（补充一点：此折扣不能与其他优惠叠加使用，比如某些群体的专属优惠。）带上你现有保单的详细信息来看看我们的报价。我们可以帮你们很多人省下真金白银。",[14,2667,2668],{},"一定要去书虫（Bookworm）书店看看。那里会有约35种书籍和DVD，其中包括几本新书。去年许多股东购买了马克斯·奥尔森（Max Olson）汇编的自1965年以来伯克希尔股东信合集，他已为今年的年会制作了更新版。此外，我们还计划推出一本便宜的50周年纪念册。目前还在制作中，但我预计它将包含各种各样的历史资料，包括一些19世纪的文件。",[14,2670,2671],{},"本报告随附的委托书材料中说明了如何获取参加会议及其他活动所需的入场凭证。航空公司有时会在伯克希尔周末涨价。如果你从远处来，比较一下飞堪萨斯城和飞奥马哈的费用。两座城市之间的车程约2.5小时，堪萨斯城可能帮你省下不少钱，特别是如果你本来就打算在奥马哈租车的话。一对夫妇省下的机票钱可能高达1,000美元甚至更多。把这笔钱在我们这里花掉。",[14,2673,2674],{},"在72街介于Dodge和Pacific之间、占地77英亩的内布拉斯加家具城（Nebraska Furniture Mart），我们将再次推出”伯克希尔周末”特价活动。去年在年会前后的一周里，这家店创下了40,481,817美元的销售纪录。（内布拉斯加家具城奥马哈店的平均周销售额约为900万美元。）",[14,2676,2677],{},"要享受伯克希尔在内布拉斯加家具城的折扣，你必须在4月28日（周二）至5月4日（周一）期间（含首尾两天）购物，并出示你的年会入场凭证。这段时间的特价甚至适用于几家知名厂商的产品——它们通常有严格的禁止打折规定，但本着股东周末的精神，为你破了例。我们感谢它们的合作。内布拉斯加家具城的营业时间：周一至周五上午10点至晚9点，周六上午10点至晚9:30，周日上午10点至晚8点。周六下午5:30至晚8点，内布拉斯加家具城将举办一场野餐会，诚邀各位参加。",[14,2679,2680],{},"在波仙珠宝店（Borsheim’s），我们将再次举办两场股东专享活动。第一场是5月1日（周五）晚6点至9点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场是5月3日（周日）上午9点至下午4点的大型售卖活动。周六我们营业至晚6点。近几年，我们这三天的销量远超每年12月的全月销量——而12月通常是珠宝商最好的月份。",[14,2682,2683],{},"整个周末波仙珠宝店都会人潮涌动。因此为方便起见，股东特价将从4月27日（周一）延续到5月9日（周六）。在此期间，请出示年会凭证或经纪商对账单来证明你是伯克希尔的股东。",[14,2685,2686],{},"周日，在波仙珠宝店外的商场里，来自达拉斯的出色魔术师诺曼·贝克（Norman Beck）将为观众表演。此外，我们还将邀请两位世界顶级桥牌大师鲍勃·哈曼（Bob Hamman）和莎伦·奥斯伯格（Sharon Osberg）在周日下午与股东打桥牌。千万别跟他们赌钱。",[14,2688,2689],{},"我的朋友邢延华（Ariel Hsing）周日也会在商场接受乒乓球挑战。我认识她的时候她才9岁，当时我就已经一个球都赢不了她。如今她是普林斯顿大学大二学生，曾代表美国参加了2012年奥运会。如果你不怕丢脸，下午1点来试试身手。比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）和我会先上场试试能不能削削她的锐气。",[14,2691,2692,2693,2696],{},"Gorat’s和Piccolo’s两家餐厅将于5月3日（周日）再次专门为伯克希尔股东开放。两家都营业到晚10点，Gorat’s下午1点开门，Piccolo’s下午4点开门。这两家餐厅都是我的最爱，周日晚上两家我都会去。记住：预订Gorat’s请在4月1日（",[798,2694,2695],{},"不能更早","）拨打402-551-3733；预订Piccolo’s请拨打402-346-2865。在Piccolo’s，点一份超大号的根汁汽水冰淇淋漂浮当甜点。只有胆小鬼才点小份。",[14,2698,2699,2700,2705,2706,2710,2711,1087],{},"我们将再次邀请三位财经记者主持会议的问答环节，向查理和我提出股东通过电子邮件提交给他们的问题。记者及电邮地址分别是：卡罗尔·卢米斯（Carol Loomis），她去年在为《财富》杂志效力60年后退休，但仍是商业和金融领域的权威专家，邮箱",[2701,2702,2704],"a",{"href":2703},"mailto:loomisbrk@gmail.com","loomisbrk@gmail.com","；CNBC的贝基·奎克（Becky Quick），邮箱",[2701,2707,2709],{"href":2708},"mailto:BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","；《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金（Andrew Ross Sorkin），邮箱",[2701,2712,2714],{"href":2713},"mailto:arsorkin@nytimes.com","arsorkin@nytimes.com",[14,2716,2717],{},"每位记者将从提交的问题中选出他\u002F她认为最有趣、最重要的6个。记者们告诉我，如果你的问题简明扼要、不拖到最后一刻才提交、与伯克希尔相关、且每封邮件包含不超过两个问题，被选中的概率就最大。（你可以在邮件中告知记者，如果你的问题被选中，是否希望公布你的名字。）",[14,2719,2720],{},"我们还将邀请三位跟踪伯克希尔的分析师组成的小组。今年保险领域的专家将是Dowling & Partners的加里·兰塞姆（Gary Ransom）。非保险业务的问题将由Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb的乔纳森·布兰特（Jonathan Brandt）和晨星公司（Morningstar）的格雷格·沃伦（Gregg Warren）提出。我们希望分析师和记者提出的问题能够增进股东对投资的理解和认识。",[14,2722,2723],{},"查理和我事先对即将被问到的问题毫不知情。有些问题肯定很犀利，而我们恰恰喜欢这样。我们预计总共至少有54个问题——每位分析师和记者各提6个，观众提18个。（去年我们总共回答了62个。）来自观众的提问者将通过11次抽签确定，抽签在年会当天上午8:15进行。主会场和主溢出厅将安装11个麦克风，每个麦克风区域进行一次抽签。",[14,2725,2726],{},"既然谈到了让股东获取信息这个话题，让我提醒大家：查理和我认为所有股东应该同时获得伯克希尔发布的新信息，并且应该有充足的时间来分析它。这就是我们尽量在周五晚间或周六早间发布财务数据的原因，也是我们的年会总安排在周六的原因。我们不与大型机构投资者或分析师进行一对一的沟通，对待他们与对待所有其他股东完全相同。",[773,2728],{},[14,2730,2731],{},"每到年会期间，我们都会得到数以千计的奥马哈居民和企业的大力帮助，他们希望各位宾至如归。今年，由于预计出席人数将创纪录，我们担心酒店房间可能不够。为解决这个潜在问题，Airbnb正在特别努力地为年会期间搜集房源，预计将提供多种多样的住宿选择。Airbnb的服务可能对那些只计划在奥马哈住一晚的股东特别有帮助——去年有些酒店要求客人最少住三晚。那可不便宜。预算紧张的人应该查看Airbnb的网站。",[773,2733],{},[14,2735,2736],{},"出于充分的理由，我经常赞扬我们运营经理人的成就。他们是真正的全明星，经营各自的企业就像这是他们家族唯一拥有的资产一样。我相信，我们经理人的心态在大型上市公司中是最以股东利益为导向的。他们中的大多数人根本没有工作的经济需要。对他们来说，在经营中打出”本垒打”带来的喜悦丝毫不亚于薪水支票。",[14,2738,2739],{},"然而同样重要的，是与我一起在总部工作的24位同仁。这个团队高效处理着美国证监会（SEC）和其他监管机构的大量要求，提交长达24,100页的联邦所得税申报表并监督3,400份州税申报表的提交，回复无数股东和媒体的问询，编制年度报告，筹备全美最大的上市公司年度股东大会，协调董事会活动——这个清单还可以一直列下去。",[14,2741,2742],{},"他们以不可思议的效率和愉快的态度处理着所有这些事务，让我的生活轻松惬意。他们的努力还延伸到与伯克希尔严格业务相关范围之外：去年他们接待了40所大学（从200所申请者中筛选出来的）派来的学生代表，到奥马哈与我进行一天的问答交流。他们还处理我收到的各种请求，安排我的行程，甚至帮我买汉堡和薯条（当然浇上亨氏番茄酱）当午餐。没有哪个CEO比我更幸福了；我真的感觉自己每天都是跳着踢踏舞去上班的。",[14,2744,2745],{},"去年，我们在年报中打破了坚持48年的”不放照片”惯例——谁说我不灵活？——刊登了一张总部团队在圣诞午餐时拍的照片。当时我没有预先通知大家要公开这张照片，所以他们穿的都是便装。今年可不一样了：在对页你会看到我们团队在知道有人要看的时候是什么样子。不管穿什么衣服，他们的工作表现都令人叹为观止。",[14,2747,2748],{},"5月2日来见见他们吧，一起享受我们为资本家准备的伍德斯托克（Woodstock）狂欢节。",[14,2750,2751],{},"2015年2月27日",[14,2753,2754],{},"沃伦·E·巴菲特（Warren 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":3137,"slug":3138,"category":2795,"order":3135},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":3140,"slug":3141,"category":2790,"order":3142},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":3144,"slug":3145,"category":2795,"order":3142},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":3147,"slug":3148,"category":2790,"order":3149},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":3151,"slug":3152,"category":2795,"order":3149},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":3154,"slug":3155,"category":2790,"order":3156},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":3158,"slug":3159,"category":2795,"order":3156},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3161,"slug":3162,"category":2772,"order":3163},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":3165,"slug":3166,"category":2795,"order":3163},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":3168,"slug":3169,"category":2790,"order":3170},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":3172,"slug":3173,"category":2795,"order":3170},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":3175,"slug":3176,"category":2772,"order":3177},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":3179,"slug":3180,"category":2795,"order":3177},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":3182,"slug":3183,"category":2772,"order":3184},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":3186,"slug":3187,"category":2795,"order":3184},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":3189,"slug":3190,"category":2772,"order":3191},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":3193,"slug":3194,"category":2795,"order":3191},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":3196,"slug":3197,"category":2772,"order":3198},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":3200,"slug":3201,"category":2795,"order":3198},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3203,"slug":3204,"category":2772,"order":3205},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":3207,"slug":3208,"category":2795,"order":3205},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3210,"slug":3211,"category":2772,"order":3212},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":3214,"slug":3215,"category":2795,"order":3212},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":3217,"slug":3218,"category":2772,"order":3219},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":3221,"slug":3222,"category":2795,"order":3219},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":3224,"slug":3225,"category":2772,"order":3226},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":3228,"slug":3229,"category":2795,"order":3226},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":3231,"slug":3232,"category":2772,"order":3233},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":3235,"slug":3236,"category":2795,"order":3233},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":3238,"slug":3239,"category":2772,"order":3240},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":3242,"slug":3243,"category":2795,"order":3240},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":3245,"slug":3246,"category":2772,"order":3247},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":3249,"slug":3250,"category":2795,"order":3247},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":3252,"slug":3253,"category":2772,"order":3254},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":3256,"slug":3257,"category":2795,"order":3254},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3259,"slug":3260,"category":2772,"order":3261},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":3263,"slug":3264,"category":2795,"order":3261},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":3266,"slug":3267,"category":2772,"order":3268},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":3270,"slug":3271,"category":2795,"order":3268},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":3273,"slug":3274,"category":2772,"order":3275},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":3277,"slug":3278,"category":2795,"order":3275},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":3280,"slug":3281,"category":2772,"order":3282},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":3284,"slug":3285,"category":2795,"order":3282},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":3287,"slug":3288,"category":2772,"order":3289},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":3291,"slug":3292,"category":2795,"order":3289},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3294,"slug":3295,"category":2772,"order":3296},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":3298,"slug":3299,"category":2795,"order":3296},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3301,"slug":3302,"category":2772,"order":3303},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":3305,"slug":3306,"category":2795,"order":3303},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3308,"slug":3309,"category":2772,"order":3310},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":3312,"slug":3313,"category":2795,"order":3310},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":3315,"slug":3316,"category":2772,"order":3317},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":3319,"slug":3320,"category":2795,"order":3317},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":3322,"slug":3323,"category":2772,"order":3324},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":3326,"slug":3327,"category":2795,"order":3324},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":3329,"slug":3330,"category":2772,"order":3331},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":3333,"slug":3334,"category":2795,"order":3331},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":3336,"slug":3337,"category":2772,"order":3338},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":3340,"slug":3341,"category":2795,"order":3338},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3343,"slug":3344,"category":2772,"order":3345},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":3347,"slug":3348,"category":2795,"order":3345},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":3350,"slug":3351,"category":2772,"order":3352},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":3354,"slug":3355,"category":2795,"order":3352},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3357,"slug":3358,"category":2772,"order":3359},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":3361,"slug":3362,"category":2795,"order":3359},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":3364,"slug":3365,"category":2772,"order":3366},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":3368,"slug":3369,"category":2795,"order":3366},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":3371,"slug":3372,"category":2772,"order":3373},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":3375,"slug":3376,"category":2795,"order":3373},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":3378,"slug":3379,"category":2772,"order":3380},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":3382,"slug":3383,"category":2795,"order":3380},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3385,"slug":3386,"category":2772,"order":3387},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":3389,"slug":3390,"category":2795,"order":3387},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":3392,"slug":3393,"category":2772,"order":3394},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":3396,"slug":3397,"category":2795,"order":3394},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":3399,"slug":3400,"category":2772,"order":3401},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":3403,"slug":3404,"category":2795,"order":3401},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3406,"slug":3407,"category":2772,"order":3408},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":3410,"slug":3411,"category":2795,"order":3408},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3413,"slug":3414,"category":2772,"order":3415},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":3417,"slug":3418,"category":2795,"order":3415},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":3420,"slug":3421,"category":2772,"order":3422},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":3424,"slug":3425,"category":2795,"order":3422},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":3427,"slug":3428,"category":2772,"order":3429},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":3431,"slug":3432,"category":2795,"order":3429},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":3434,"slug":3435,"category":2772,"order":3436},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":3438,"slug":3439,"category":2795,"order":3436},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":3441,"slug":3442,"category":2772,"order":3443},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":3445,"slug":3446,"category":2795,"order":3443},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":3448,"slug":3449,"category":2772,"order":3450},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":3452,"slug":3453,"category":2795,"order":3450},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3455,"slug":3456,"category":2772,"order":3457},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":3459,"slug":3460,"category":2795,"order":3457},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3462,"slug":3463,"category":2772,"order":3464},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":3466,"slug":3467,"category":2795,"order":3464},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3469,"slug":3470,"category":2772,"order":3471},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":3473,"slug":3474,"category":2795,"order":3471},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":3476,"slug":3477,"category":2772,"order":3478},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":3480,"slug":3481,"category":2795,"order":3478},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":3483,"slug":3484,"category":2772,"order":3485},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":3487,"slug":3488,"category":2795,"order":3485},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":5,"slug":2782,"category":2772,"order":2778},{"title":3491,"slug":3492,"category":2795,"order":2778},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":3494,"slug":3495,"category":2772,"order":3496},"2015 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