[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":4918},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":3382,"library-sidebar-dao":4384,"library-sidebar-models":4686},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":3368,"date":3369,"description":3370,"extension":3371,"meta":3372,"navigation":3373,"order":3374,"path":3375,"seo":3376,"seoDescription":3370,"seoTitle":3377,"slug":3378,"stem":3379,"__hash__":3380,"_collection":3381},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2010 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":3348},"minimark",[9,13,20,699,705,708,719,724,729,732,735,738,741,749,752,759,766,773,776,779,782,785,788,795,802,805,812,815,818,823,1380,1385,1388,1392,1395,1398,1401,1404,1407,1490,1493,1496,1572,1575,1578,1581,1584,1591,1594,1597,1600,1607,1610,1617,1620,1623,1626,1629,1632,1635,1638,1641,1644,1647,1650,1653,1656,1663,1666,1669,1683,1686,1689,1692,1695,1702,1705,1707,1710,1713,1716,1719,1767,1778,1781,1788,1790,1797,1800,1802,1805,1812,1815,1818,1820,1823,1826,1933,1936,1940,1943,1948,2086,2091,2192,2199,2206,2209,2223,2226,2229,2232,2235,2238,2241,2244,2247,2250,2253,2256,2263,2266,2269,2272,2275,2278,2281,2284,2290,2293,2441,2446,2515,2518,2521,2524,2527,2530,2533,2536,2584,2591,2598,2601,2604,2607,2610,2891,2896,2899,2901,2908,2911,2914,2917,2920,2923,2930,2933,2935,2938,2941,2944,2946,2949,2956,2959,2962,2965,2968,2971,2974,2977,2980,2983,2986,2989,2992,2995,2998,3001,3004,3007,3010,3014,3017,3024,3043,3050,3053,3056,3058,3065,3068,3071,3078,3081,3088,3091,3094,3097,3100,3107,3114,3117,3120,3127,3130,3136,3139,3142,3145,3152,3159,3162,3165,3168,3171,3174,3180,3183,3186,3189,3196,3214,3217,3220,3227,3229,3232,3235,3238,3241,3244,3247,3250,3253,3259,3265,3271,3277,3280,3287,3294,3297,3300,3303,3306,3308,3311,3314,3317,3320,3324,3327,3330,3333,3336,3339,3342,3345],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2010-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[21,22,23,42],"table",{},[24,25,26],"thead",{},[27,28,29,33,36,39],"tr",{},[30,31,32],"th",{},"年份",[30,34,35],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比 (1)",[30,37,38],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比 (2)",[30,40,41],{},"相对结果 (1)-(2)",[43,44,45,60,74,88,101,115,129,143,157,171,185,199,213,226,240,253,267,281,295,308,322,336,348,361,374,388,402,416,428,442,456,469,483,497,511,525,539,553,566,579,592,605,619,630,644,658,672,686],"tbody",{},[27,46,47,51,54,57],{},[48,49,50],"td",{},"1965",[48,52,53],{},"23.8",[48,55,56],{},"10.0",[48,58,59],{},"13.8",[27,61,62,65,68,71],{},[48,63,64],{},"1966",[48,66,67],{},"20.3",[48,69,70],{},"(11.7)",[48,72,73],{},"32.0",[27,75,76,79,82,85],{},[48,77,78],{},"1967",[48,80,81],{},"11.0",[48,83,84],{},"30.9",[48,86,87],{},"(19.9)",[27,89,90,93,96,98],{},[48,91,92],{},"1968",[48,94,95],{},"19.0",[48,97,81],{},[48,99,100],{},"8.0",[27,102,103,106,109,112],{},[48,104,105],{},"1969",[48,107,108],{},"16.2",[48,110,111],{},"(8.4)",[48,113,114],{},"24.6",[27,116,117,120,123,126],{},[48,118,119],{},"1970",[48,121,122],{},"12.0",[48,124,125],{},"3.9",[48,127,128],{},"8.1",[27,130,131,134,137,140],{},[48,132,133],{},"1971",[48,135,136],{},"16.4",[48,138,139],{},"14.6",[48,141,142],{},"1.8",[27,144,145,148,151,154],{},[48,146,147],{},"1972",[48,149,150],{},"21.7",[48,152,153],{},"18.9",[48,155,156],{},"2.8",[27,158,159,162,165,168],{},[48,160,161],{},"1973",[48,163,164],{},"4.7",[48,166,167],{},"(14.8)",[48,169,170],{},"19.5",[27,172,173,176,179,182],{},[48,174,175],{},"1974",[48,177,178],{},"5.5",[48,180,181],{},"(26.4)",[48,183,184],{},"31.9",[27,186,187,190,193,196],{},[48,188,189],{},"1975",[48,191,192],{},"21.9",[48,194,195],{},"37.2",[48,197,198],{},"(15.3)",[27,200,201,204,207,210],{},[48,202,203],{},"1976",[48,205,206],{},"59.3",[48,208,209],{},"23.6",[48,211,212],{},"35.7",[27,214,215,218,220,223],{},[48,216,217],{},"1977",[48,219,184],{},[48,221,222],{},"(7.4)",[48,224,225],{},"39.3",[27,227,228,231,234,237],{},[48,229,230],{},"1978",[48,232,233],{},"24.0",[48,235,236],{},"6.4",[48,238,239],{},"17.6",[27,241,242,245,247,250],{},[48,243,244],{},"1979",[48,246,212],{},[48,248,249],{},"18.2",[48,251,252],{},"17.5",[27,254,255,258,261,264],{},[48,256,257],{},"1980",[48,259,260],{},"19.3",[48,262,263],{},"32.3",[48,265,266],{},"(13.0)",[27,268,269,272,275,278],{},[48,270,271],{},"1981",[48,273,274],{},"31.4",[48,276,277],{},"(5.0)",[48,279,280],{},"36.4",[27,282,283,286,289,292],{},[48,284,285],{},"1982",[48,287,288],{},"40.0",[48,290,291],{},"21.4",[48,293,294],{},"18.6",[27,296,297,300,302,305],{},[48,298,299],{},"1983",[48,301,263],{},[48,303,304],{},"22.4",[48,306,307],{},"9.9",[27,309,310,313,316,319],{},[48,311,312],{},"1984",[48,314,315],{},"13.6",[48,317,318],{},"6.1",[48,320,321],{},"7.5",[27,323,324,327,330,333],{},[48,325,326],{},"1985",[48,328,329],{},"48.2",[48,331,332],{},"31.6",[48,334,335],{},"16.6",[27,337,338,341,344,346],{},[48,339,340],{},"1986",[48,342,343],{},"26.1",[48,345,294],{},[48,347,321],{},[27,349,350,353,355,358],{},[48,351,352],{},"1987",[48,354,170],{},[48,356,357],{},"5.1",[48,359,360],{},"14.4",[27,362,363,366,369,371],{},[48,364,365],{},"1988",[48,367,368],{},"20.1",[48,370,335],{},[48,372,373],{},"3.5",[27,375,376,379,382,385],{},[48,377,378],{},"1989",[48,380,381],{},"44.4",[48,383,384],{},"31.7",[48,386,387],{},"12.7",[27,389,390,393,396,399],{},[48,391,392],{},"1990",[48,394,395],{},"7.4",[48,397,398],{},"(3.1)",[48,400,401],{},"10.5",[27,403,404,407,410,413],{},[48,405,406],{},"1991",[48,408,409],{},"39.6",[48,411,412],{},"30.5",[48,414,415],{},"9.1",[27,417,418,421,423,426],{},[48,419,420],{},"1992",[48,422,67],{},[48,424,425],{},"7.6",[48,427,387],{},[27,429,430,433,436,439],{},[48,431,432],{},"1993",[48,434,435],{},"14.3",[48,437,438],{},"10.1",[48,440,441],{},"4.2",[27,443,444,447,450,453],{},[48,445,446],{},"1994",[48,448,449],{},"13.9",[48,451,452],{},"1.3",[48,454,455],{},"12.6",[27,457,458,461,464,467],{},[48,459,460],{},"1995",[48,462,463],{},"43.1",[48,465,466],{},"37.6",[48,468,178],{},[27,470,471,474,477,480],{},[48,472,473],{},"1996",[48,475,476],{},"31.8",[48,478,479],{},"23.0",[48,481,482],{},"8.8",[27,484,485,488,491,494],{},[48,486,487],{},"1997",[48,489,490],{},"34.1",[48,492,493],{},"33.4",[48,495,496],{},".7",[27,498,499,502,505,508],{},[48,500,501],{},"1998",[48,503,504],{},"48.3",[48,506,507],{},"28.6",[48,509,510],{},"19.7",[27,512,513,516,519,522],{},[48,514,515],{},"1999",[48,517,518],{},".5",[48,520,521],{},"21.0",[48,523,524],{},"(20.5)",[27,526,527,530,533,536],{},[48,528,529],{},"2000",[48,531,532],{},"6.5",[48,534,535],{},"(9.1)",[48,537,538],{},"15.6",[27,540,541,544,547,550],{},[48,542,543],{},"2001",[48,545,546],{},"(6.2)",[48,548,549],{},"(11.9)",[48,551,552],{},"5.7",[27,554,555,558,560,563],{},[48,556,557],{},"2002",[48,559,56],{},[48,561,562],{},"(22.1)",[48,564,565],{},"32.1",[27,567,568,571,573,576],{},[48,569,570],{},"2003",[48,572,521],{},[48,574,575],{},"28.7",[48,577,578],{},"(7.7)",[27,580,581,584,586,589],{},[48,582,583],{},"2004",[48,585,401],{},[48,587,588],{},"10.9",[48,590,591],{},"(.4)",[27,593,594,597,599,602],{},[48,595,596],{},"2005",[48,598,236],{},[48,600,601],{},"4.9",[48,603,604],{},"1.5",[27,606,607,610,613,616],{},[48,608,609],{},"2006",[48,611,612],{},"18.4",[48,614,615],{},"15.8",[48,617,618],{},"2.6",[27,620,621,624,626,628],{},[48,622,623],{},"2007",[48,625,81],{},[48,627,178],{},[48,629,178],{},[27,631,632,635,638,641],{},[48,633,634],{},"2008",[48,636,637],{},"(9.6)",[48,639,640],{},"(37.0)",[48,642,643],{},"27.4",[27,645,646,649,652,655],{},[48,647,648],{},"2009",[48,650,651],{},"19.8",[48,653,654],{},"26.5",[48,656,657],{},"(6.7)",[27,659,660,663,666,669],{},[48,661,662],{},"2010",[48,664,665],{},"13.0",[48,667,668],{},"15.1",[48,670,671],{},"(2.1)",[27,673,674,677,680,683],{},[48,675,676],{},"年复合增长率 – 1965-2010",[48,678,679],{},"20.2%",[48,681,682],{},"9.4%",[48,684,685],{},"10.8",[27,687,688,691,694,697],{},[48,689,690],{},"累计总收益 – 1964-2010",[48,692,693],{},"490,409%",[48,695,696],{},"6,262%",[48,698],{},[14,700,701,704],{},[17,702,703],{},"注："," 数据为日历年数据，但以下情况除外：1965 年和 1966 年为截至 9 月 30 日的年度；1967 年为截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。",[14,706,707],{},"自 1979 年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市场价值（而非此前的成本与市价孰低法）对其持有的权益证券进行估值。在本表中，伯克希尔 1978 年及之前的业绩已按新准则进行了重述。其他方面的数据均按最初报告的数字计算。",[14,709,710,711,714,715,718],{},"标普 500 指数的数字是",[17,712,713],{},"税前","的，而伯克希尔的数字是",[17,716,717],{},"税后","的。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司只是持有标普 500 指数并缴纳相应税款，那么在指数取得正收益的年份，其业绩会落后于标普 500；而在指数取得负收益的年份，其业绩则会超过标普 500。长年累月下来，税收成本会造成相当大的累计落后幅度。",[720,721,723],"h3",{"id":722},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,725,726],{},[17,727,728],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,730,731],{},"2010 年，伯克希尔 A\u002FB 股每股账面价值增长了 13%。自现任管理层接手的 46 年以来，每股账面价值由当初的 19 美元成长到目前的 95,453 美元，年复合增长率约为 20.2%。(*)",[14,733,734],{},"(*): 本报告中所有每股数据均指伯克希尔 A 股。B 股的数据为 A 股的 1\u002F1500。",[14,736,737],{},"2010 年的亮点是我们收购了伯灵顿北方圣太菲铁路（Burlington Northern Santa Fe），这笔交易的效果比我预期的还要好。现在看来，拥有这条铁路将使伯克希尔的”常规”盈利能力税前增长近 40%，税后增长远超 30%。这笔收购使我们的股份总数增加了 6%，动用了 220 亿美元现金。由于我们很快就补充了现金，这笔交易的经济效益非常出色。",[14,739,740],{},"当然，“常规年份”这个概念，无论是伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合伙人查理·芒格（Charlie Munger），还是我本人，都很难精确定义。但为了估算我们当前的盈利能力，我们设想了这样一个年份：保险业务没有遭遇超级巨灾，整体经济环境好于 2010 年但弱于 2005 年或 2006 年。基于这些假设，以及我将在”投资”部分阐述的其他几个假设，我估计我们当前所拥有资产的常规盈利能力大约是税前 170 亿美元、税后 120 亿美元，不包括任何资本利得或损失。查理和我每天都在琢磨怎么在这个基础上更上一层楼。",[14,742,743,744,748],{},"我们两个人都对 BNSF 铁路的前景非常乐观，因为与其主要竞争对手——卡车运输相比，铁路在成本和环保方面都有巨大优势。去年，BNSF 铁路每运输一吨货物，一加仑柴油就能跑 500 英里，创下了新纪录。这比卡车运输的燃油效率高出",[745,746,747],"em",{},"三","倍，意味着我们的铁路在运营成本上拥有重要优势。与此同时，温室气体排放减少、进口石油需求降低，我们的国家也从中受益。货物走铁路，整个社会都受益。",[14,750,751],{},"随着时间推移，美国境内的货物运输量将持续增长，BNSF 铁路将从中获得应有的份额。为了实现这种增长，铁路需要进行大规模投资，而没有谁比伯克希尔更适合提供所需资金。不管经济多么低迷，市场多么混乱，我们开出的支票照样兑现。",[14,753,754,755,758],{},"去年——在人们对美国经济普遍悲观的情况下——我们用实际行动展示了伯克希尔对资本投资的热情，在不动产和设备上花了 60 亿美元。其中 54 亿美元——占总额的 90%——投在了美国境内。当然，我们的业务将来会向海外扩张，但绝大部分未来投资仍将留在国内。2011 年，我们将创下 80 亿美元资本支出的新纪录，增加的 20 亿美元将",[745,756,757],{},"全部","投在美国。",[14,760,761,762,765],{},"资本总是流向机会，而美国遍地是机会。如今的评论员动不动就说”巨大的不确定性”。但回想一下 1941 年 12 月 6 日、1987 年 10 月 18 日和 2001 年 9 月 10 日吧。无论今天看起来多么风平浪静，明天",[745,763,764],{},"总是","充满不确定性。",[14,767,768,769,772],{},"别被这个现实吓住。在我这一辈子里，政客和学者们一直在抱怨美国面临的种种可怕问题。然而，与我出生时相比，美国人的生活水平惊人地提高了六倍。那些末日预言家忽视了一个至关重要的、",[745,770,771],{},"确定无疑","的因素：人类的潜能远未耗尽，而释放这种潜能的美国制度——两百多年来尽管屡次被衰退甚至内战打断，却依然奇迹般运转的制度——至今仍然充满活力、行之有效。",[14,774,775],{},"我们并不比建国时的先辈更聪明，也不比他们更勤劳。但看看你四周，这个世界已经远远超出了殖民时代任何一位公民的梦想。如今，正如 1776 年、1861 年、1932 年和 1941 年一样，美国最好的日子还在前头。",[720,777,778],{"id":778},"业绩",[14,780,781],{},"查理和我认为，那些受人之托管理资金的人，应该在开始受托之初就确立绩效目标。没有这种标准，管理层就会倾向于先射出业绩之箭，然后再围着箭头画靶心。",[14,783,784],{},"就伯克希尔而言，我们很早就告诉过大家，我们的工作是让每股内在价值的增长超过标普 500 指数（含股息）的涨幅。有些年份我们做到了，有些年份没做到。但是，如果长期下来我们无法实现这一目标，那我们对投资者就毫无贡献——他们完全可以通过购买指数基金获得同等甚至更好的回报。",[14,786,787],{},"当然，如何计算内在价值本身就是个挑战。把这道题分别交给查理和我，你会得到两个不同的答案。精确是不可能的。",[14,789,790,791,794],{},"为了消除主观性，我们在衡量业绩时，采用了一个",[745,792,793],{},"偏低","的内在价值替代指标——账面价值。可以确定的是，我们有些业务的价值远远超过其账面价值。（在本报告后面，我们会展示一个案例。）但由于内在价值相对于账面价值的溢价很少在年度之间大幅波动，账面价值可以作为追踪我们表现的合理工具。",[14,796,797,798,801],{},"首页的业绩对比表显示了我们 46 年来相对于标普 500 指数的表现——早年的成绩相当出色，如今只能说令人满意。我们要强调的是，那些丰收的年份再也回不来了。我们目前管理的巨额资本消除了取得非凡业绩的",[745,799,800],{},"任何","可能。不过，我们将努力争取超越平均水平，你们要求我们达到这个标准也是公平的。",[14,803,804],{},"需要注意的是，年度数据既不应该被忽视，也不应该被过度看重。地球绕太阳公转的节奏，和投资理念或经营决策开花结果所需的时间并不同步。比如在盖可保险（GEICO），我们去年热情洋溢地花了 9 亿美元打广告来吸引保户，但这些客户并不会立刻为我们带来利润。如果我们能有效地把广告投入翻一番，我们会乐意这么做，即使短期业绩会因此进一步承压。我们在铁路和公用事业业务上的许多大额投资，同样着眼于长远的回报。",[14,806,807,808,811],{},"为了让你们对业绩有更长远的视角，我们将首页的年度数据重新整理成一系列五年期数据。总共有 42 期，它们讲述了一个有趣的故事。从相对表现来看，我们最好的年份出现在 1980 年代初。然而，接下来的 17 年才是",[745,809,810],{},"市场","的黄金时期——尽管我们的相对优势缩小了，伯克希尔仍然取得了惊人的绝对回报。",[14,813,814],{},"1999 年之后，市场陷入停滞（你们有没有注意到？）。因此，从那时起伯克希尔相对于标普 500 指数的令人满意的表现，也只带来了温和的绝对收益。",[14,816,817],{},"展望未来，我们希望平均每年能比标普 500 指数高出几个百分点——当然，这远非确定的事。如果能实现这个目标，我们几乎可以肯定会在股市低迷的年份取得较好的相对业绩，而在股市强劲的年份则表现逊色。",[14,819,820],{},[17,821,822],{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数五年期业绩对比",[21,824,825,839],{},[24,826,827],{},[27,828,829,832,834,836],{},[30,830,831],{},"五年期",[30,833,35],{},[30,835,38],{},[30,837,838],{},"结果 (1)-(2)",[43,840,841,855,867,879,892,906,920,933,946,959,972,985,996,1009,1022,1034,1047,1060,1073,1084,1098,1110,1123,1136,1148,1160,1172,1184,1197,1211,1224,1238,1251,1263,1276,1289,1302,1314,1327,1341,1353,1367],{},[27,842,843,846,849,852],{},[48,844,845],{},"1965-1969",[48,847,848],{},"17.2",[48,850,851],{},"5.0",[48,853,854],{},"12.2",[27,856,857,860,863,865],{},[48,858,859],{},"1966-1970",[48,861,862],{},"14.7",[48,864,125],{},[48,866,685],{},[27,868,869,872,874,877],{},[48,870,871],{},"1967-1971",[48,873,449],{},[48,875,876],{},"9.2",[48,878,164],{},[27,880,881,884,887,889],{},[48,882,883],{},"1968-1972",[48,885,886],{},"16.8",[48,888,321],{},[48,890,891],{},"9.3",[27,893,894,897,900,903],{},[48,895,896],{},"1969-1973",[48,898,899],{},"17.7",[48,901,902],{},"2.0",[48,904,905],{},"15.7",[27,907,908,911,914,917],{},[48,909,910],{},"1970-1974",[48,912,913],{},"15.0",[48,915,916],{},"(2.4)",[48,918,919],{},"17.4",[27,921,922,925,927,930],{},[48,923,924],{},"1971-1975",[48,926,449],{},[48,928,929],{},"3.2",[48,931,932],{},"10.7",[27,934,935,938,941,943],{},[48,936,937],{},"1972-1976",[48,939,940],{},"20.8",[48,942,601],{},[48,944,945],{},"15.9",[27,947,948,951,954,957],{},[48,949,950],{},"1973-1977",[48,952,953],{},"23.4",[48,955,956],{},"(0.2)",[48,958,209],{},[27,960,961,964,967,970],{},[48,962,963],{},"1974-1978",[48,965,966],{},"24.4",[48,968,969],{},"4.3",[48,971,368],{},[27,973,974,977,980,982],{},[48,975,976],{},"1975-1979",[48,978,979],{},"30.1",[48,981,862],{},[48,983,984],{},"15.4",[27,986,987,990,992,994],{},[48,988,989],{},"1976-1980",[48,991,493],{},[48,993,449],{},[48,995,170],{},[27,997,998,1001,1004,1006],{},[48,999,1000],{},"1977-1981",[48,1002,1003],{},"29.0",[48,1005,128],{},[48,1007,1008],{},"20.9",[27,1010,1011,1014,1017,1020],{},[48,1012,1013],{},"1978-1982",[48,1015,1016],{},"29.9",[48,1018,1019],{},"14.1",[48,1021,615],{},[27,1023,1024,1027,1029,1032],{},[48,1025,1026],{},"1979-1983",[48,1028,332],{},[48,1030,1031],{},"17.3",[48,1033,435],{},[27,1035,1036,1039,1042,1045],{},[48,1037,1038],{},"1980-1984",[48,1040,1041],{},"27.0",[48,1043,1044],{},"14.8",[48,1046,854],{},[27,1048,1049,1052,1055,1057],{},[48,1050,1051],{},"1981-1985",[48,1053,1054],{},"32.6",[48,1056,139],{},[48,1058,1059],{},"18.0",[27,1061,1062,1065,1068,1070],{},[48,1063,1064],{},"1982-1986",[48,1066,1067],{},"31.5",[48,1069,651],{},[48,1071,1072],{},"11.7",[27,1074,1075,1078,1080,1082],{},[48,1076,1077],{},"1983-1987",[48,1079,643],{},[48,1081,136],{},[48,1083,81],{},[27,1085,1086,1089,1092,1095],{},[48,1087,1088],{},"1984-1988",[48,1090,1091],{},"25.0",[48,1093,1094],{},"15.2",[48,1096,1097],{},"9.8",[27,1099,1100,1103,1106,1108],{},[48,1101,1102],{},"1985-1989",[48,1104,1105],{},"31.1",[48,1107,67],{},[48,1109,685],{},[27,1111,1112,1115,1118,1121],{},[48,1113,1114],{},"1986-1990",[48,1116,1117],{},"22.9",[48,1119,1120],{},"13.1",[48,1122,1097],{},[27,1124,1125,1128,1131,1134],{},[48,1126,1127],{},"1987-1991",[48,1129,1130],{},"25.4",[48,1132,1133],{},"15.3",[48,1135,438],{},[27,1137,1138,1141,1144,1146],{},[48,1139,1140],{},"1988-1992",[48,1142,1143],{},"25.6",[48,1145,615],{},[48,1147,1097],{},[27,1149,1150,1153,1155,1158],{},[48,1151,1152],{},"1989-1993",[48,1154,966],{},[48,1156,1157],{},"14.5",[48,1159,307],{},[27,1161,1162,1165,1167,1170],{},[48,1163,1164],{},"1990-1994",[48,1166,294],{},[48,1168,1169],{},"8.7",[48,1171,307],{},[27,1173,1174,1177,1179,1182],{},[48,1175,1176],{},"1991-1995",[48,1178,1143],{},[48,1180,1181],{},"16.5",[48,1183,415],{},[27,1185,1186,1189,1192,1194],{},[48,1187,1188],{},"1992-1996",[48,1190,1191],{},"24.2",[48,1193,1094],{},[48,1195,1196],{},"9.0",[27,1198,1199,1202,1205,1208],{},[48,1200,1201],{},"1993-1997",[48,1203,1204],{},"26.9",[48,1206,1207],{},"20.2",[48,1209,1210],{},"6.7",[27,1212,1213,1216,1219,1221],{},[48,1214,1215],{},"1994-1998",[48,1217,1218],{},"33.7",[48,1220,233],{},[48,1222,1223],{},"9.7",[27,1225,1226,1229,1232,1235],{},[48,1227,1228],{},"1995-1999",[48,1230,1231],{},"30.4",[48,1233,1234],{},"28.5",[48,1236,1237],{},"1.9",[27,1239,1240,1243,1245,1248],{},[48,1241,1242],{},"1996-2000",[48,1244,1117],{},[48,1246,1247],{},"18.3",[48,1249,1250],{},"4.6",[27,1252,1253,1256,1258,1260],{},[48,1254,1255],{},"1997-2001",[48,1257,1044],{},[48,1259,932],{},[48,1261,1262],{},"4.1",[27,1264,1265,1268,1271,1274],{},[48,1266,1267],{},"1998-2002",[48,1269,1270],{},"10.4",[48,1272,1273],{},"(0.6)",[48,1275,81],{},[27,1277,1278,1281,1284,1286],{},[48,1279,1280],{},"1999-2003",[48,1282,1283],{},"6.0",[48,1285,1273],{},[48,1287,1288],{},"6.6",[27,1290,1291,1294,1296,1299],{},[48,1292,1293],{},"2000-2004",[48,1295,100],{},[48,1297,1298],{},"(2.3)",[48,1300,1301],{},"10.3",[27,1303,1304,1307,1309,1312],{},[48,1305,1306],{},"2001-2005",[48,1308,100],{},[48,1310,1311],{},"0.6",[48,1313,395],{},[27,1315,1316,1319,1321,1324],{},[48,1317,1318],{},"2002-2006",[48,1320,1120],{},[48,1322,1323],{},"6.2",[48,1325,1326],{},"6.9",[27,1328,1329,1332,1335,1338],{},[48,1330,1331],{},"2003-2007",[48,1333,1334],{},"13.3",[48,1336,1337],{},"12.8",[48,1339,1340],{},"0.5",[27,1342,1343,1346,1348,1351],{},[48,1344,1345],{},"2004-2008",[48,1347,1326],{},[48,1349,1350],{},"(2.2)",[48,1352,415],{},[27,1354,1355,1358,1361,1364],{},[48,1356,1357],{},"2005-2009",[48,1359,1360],{},"8.6",[48,1362,1363],{},"0.4",[48,1365,1366],{},"8.2",[27,1368,1369,1372,1374,1377],{},[48,1370,1371],{},"2006-2010",[48,1373,56],{},[48,1375,1376],{},"2.3",[48,1378,1379],{},"7.7",[14,1381,1382,1384],{},[17,1383,703],{}," 前两期涵盖始于前一年 9 月 30 日的五年。第三期涵盖 1966 年 9 月 30 日至 1971 年 12 月 31 日的 63 个月。其他所有期间均为日历年。",[14,1386,1387],{},"第 2 页的其他注释同样适用于本表。",[720,1389,1391],{"id":1390},"内在价值今天和明天","内在价值——今天和明天",[14,1393,1394],{},"尽管伯克希尔的内在价值无法精确计算，但其三大关键支柱中有两个是可以衡量的。查理和我在估算伯克希尔价值时，非常倚重这些数据。",[14,1396,1397],{},"内在价值的第一个组成部分是我们的投资：股票、债券和现金等价物。年末，这些投资的市场价值合计 1,580 亿美元。",[14,1399,1400],{},"保险浮存金——我们在保险业务中临时持有的、并不属于我们的资金——为我们的投资提供了 660 亿美元的资金来源。只要保险承保能够盈亏平衡——也就是说，我们收取的保费等于我们发生的赔付损失和费用——这些钱就是”免费”的。当然，承保结果变化无常，在盈利和亏损之间不规则地摆动。然而，纵观伯克希尔的全部历史，我们的承保一直保持着可观的盈利，我也预期未来平均而言能够维持盈亏平衡或更好的成绩。如果做到了这一点，我们所有的投资——无论是由浮存金还是留存收益提供资金的——都可以视为伯克希尔股东价值的组成部分。",[14,1402,1403],{},"内在价值的第二个组成部分是来自投资和保险承保之外的收益。这些收益来自我们的 68 家非保险公司，详细列表见第 106 页。伯克希尔早年专注于投资这一面。但在过去二十年间，我们越来越重视拓展来自非保险业务的收益，这一做法将持续下去。",[14,1405,1406],{},"下面的表格展示了这种转变。第一张表从 1970 年开始（即我们进入保险业三年后），每隔十年列出了每股投资金额。表中不包括归属于少数股东权益的投资。",[21,1408,1409,1425],{},[24,1410,1411],{},[27,1412,1413,1416,1419,1422],{},[30,1414,1415],{},"年末",[30,1417,1418],{},"每股投资额",[30,1420,1421],{},"期间",[30,1423,1424],{},"每股投资额年复合增长率",[43,1426,1427,1438,1451,1464,1477],{},[27,1428,1429,1431,1434,1436],{},[48,1430,119],{},[48,1432,1433],{},"$ 66",[48,1435],{},[48,1437],{},[27,1439,1440,1442,1445,1448],{},[48,1441,257],{},[48,1443,1444],{},"754",[48,1446,1447],{},"1970-1980",[48,1449,1450],{},"27.5%",[27,1452,1453,1455,1458,1461],{},[48,1454,392],{},[48,1456,1457],{},"7,798",[48,1459,1460],{},"1980-1990",[48,1462,1463],{},"26.3%",[27,1465,1466,1468,1471,1474],{},[48,1467,529],{},[48,1469,1470],{},"50,229",[48,1472,1473],{},"1990-2000",[48,1475,1476],{},"20.5%",[27,1478,1479,1481,1484,1487],{},[48,1480,662],{},[48,1482,1483],{},"94,730",[48,1485,1486],{},"2000-2010",[48,1488,1489],{},"6.6%",[14,1491,1492],{},"尽管 40 年间我们每股投资的年复合增长率高达 19.9%，但由于我们将重心转向用资金收购经营性企业，增长速度已经明显放缓。",[14,1494,1495],{},"这种转变的回报体现在下表中，它展示了我们非保险业务的收益是如何增长的，同样以每股为基础，并扣除了归属于少数股东权益的部分。",[21,1497,1498,1512],{},[24,1499,1500],{},[27,1501,1502,1504,1507,1509],{},[30,1503,32],{},[30,1505,1506],{},"每股税前收益",[30,1508,1421],{},[30,1510,1511],{},"每股税前收益年复合增长率",[43,1513,1514,1525,1537,1549,1561],{},[27,1515,1516,1518,1521,1523],{},[48,1517,119],{},[48,1519,1520],{},"$ 2.87",[48,1522],{},[48,1524],{},[27,1526,1527,1529,1532,1534],{},[48,1528,257],{},[48,1530,1531],{},"19.01",[48,1533,1447],{},[48,1535,1536],{},"20.8%",[27,1538,1539,1541,1544,1546],{},[48,1540,392],{},[48,1542,1543],{},"102.58",[48,1545,1460],{},[48,1547,1548],{},"18.4%",[27,1550,1551,1553,1556,1558],{},[48,1552,529],{},[48,1554,1555],{},"918.66",[48,1557,1473],{},[48,1559,1560],{},"24.5%",[27,1562,1563,1565,1568,1570],{},[48,1564,662],{},[48,1566,1567],{},"5,926.04",[48,1569,1486],{},[48,1571,1476],{},[14,1573,1574],{},"40 年来，我们非保险业务每股税前收益的年复合增长率为 21.0%。同期，伯克希尔的股价年复合增长率为 22.1%。随着时间推移，你会发现我们的股价走势与伯克希尔的投资和收益变动大致同步。市场价格和内在价值走的往往是截然不同的路——有时候会岔开很长一段时间——但最终它们会汇合。",[14,1576,1577],{},"内在价值的计算还涉及第三个更主观的因素，它可能是正面的，也可能是负面的：未来留存收益的使用效率。我们和许多其他企业一样，未来十年留存的收益很可能等于甚至超过我们目前投入的资本。有些公司会把留存的每一美元变成五毛钱，而另一些公司则能把它变成两美元。",[14,1579,1580],{},"要合理估计一家公司的内在价值，就必须把”他们将拿这些钱做什么”这个因素，和前面”我们现在拥有什么”的计算一起评估——无论是我们还是任何人都如此。这是因为当管理层将外部投资者在公司收益中所占的份额进行再投资时，外部投资者只能干瞪眼。如果预期 CEO 能把再投资这件事做好，再投资前景就会给公司的当前价值加分；如果 CEO 的能力或动机令人起疑，当前价值就得打折扣。这种差异可能是天壤之别。1960 年代末，交到西尔斯百货（Sears Roebuck）或蒙哥马利沃德（Montgomery Ward）CEO 手里的每一美元，与交给山姆·沃尔顿（Sam Walton）手里的每一美元，命运截然不同。",[1582,1583],"hr",{},[14,1585,1586,1587,1590],{},"查理和我希望我们非保险业务的每股收益能够以不错的速度继续增长。但数字越大，活儿就越难干。我们既需要现有业务保持良好的经营表现，也需要更多的",[745,1588,1589],{},"大型","收购。我们已经准备好了。猎象之枪已经上膛，我扣在扳机上的手指正发痒。",[14,1592,1593],{},"规模这个拖累被我们拥有的几项重要优势部分抵消了。首先，我们拥有一批真正出色的管理者，他们对自己的业务和伯克希尔都有着非同寻常的忠诚。我们的很多 CEO 本身已经很富有，工作纯粹是因为热爱。他们是自愿者，不是雇佣兵。因为没人能给他们提供一份更让他们享受的工作，所以他们不会被挖走。",[14,1595,1596],{},"在伯克希尔，经理人可以专注于经营各自的业务：他们不用参加总部会议，不用操心融资，也不用应付华尔街的骚扰。他们只是每两年收到我的一封信（信的内容见第 104-105 页），有事的时候给我打个电话。他们的需求各有不同：过去一年里有些经理一个电话都没给我打过，而有一位几乎天天跟我通话。我们信任的是人，而不是流程。“招好人，少管理”这条准则对他们和我都适用。",[14,1598,1599],{},"伯克希尔的 CEO 们各式各样。有些有 MBA 学位，有些大学都没念完。有些人做预算、按规矩办事，有些人完全凭感觉行事。我们的团队就像一支由全明星组成的棒球队，每个人的击球风格迥然不同。我们很少需要调整阵容。",[14,1601,1602,1603,1606],{},"我们的第二个优势与利润的分配方式有关。在满足各项业务的需要之后，我们还剩下非常可观的资金。大多数公司只在自己一直经营的行业里进行再投资。这往往把它们限制在一个既小又远不如外面世界精彩的资本配置“小天地”里。",[745,1604,1605],{},"对于","为数不多的可用机会的竞争趋于白热化。卖方占尽上风，就好比一个女孩是满屋子男孩参加的舞会上唯一的女生。这种不均衡的局面对女孩来说好极了，对男孩们来说就太惨了。",[14,1608,1609],{},"在伯克希尔，我们配置资本时不受任何制度性约束。查理和我唯一受限的是自己的能力——能否看清一笔潜在收购的可能未来。如果我们迈过了这道坎——而通常我们迈不过——我们就能把任何一个机会与一大堆其他机会进行比较。",[14,1611,1612,1613,1616],{},"1965 年我接管伯克希尔的时候，并没有利用好这个优势。当时伯克希尔只做纺织业，而且在之前的十年里亏了不少钱。我能做的最蠢的事莫过于继续在现有的纺织业务里寻找”机会”去改善和扩张——于是好几年里我就是这么干的。接着，在最后一次天才之举中，我出去收购了",[745,1614,1615],{},"另一家","纺织企业。啊啊啊啊啊！！最终我醒悟了过来，先进了保险业，然后又进了其他行业。",[14,1618,1619],{},"除了这种”天下尽在我手”的优势之外，还有一个额外的好处：除了将一个企业与其他许多企业进行比较之外，我们还会拿它和有价证券市场上的机会进行比较——大多数管理层都不会这么做。很多时候，企业的定价高得离谱，远不如投资股票或债券划算。在这种时候，我们就买证券，耐心等待。",[14,1621,1622],{},"我们在资本配置上的灵活性，是迄今为止取得大部分成就的关键原因。我们能把从喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）或美国商业资讯（Business Wire）赚到的钱——这两家是我们经营最好的企业，但再投资机会都很有限——拿去作为收购 BNSF 铁路所需资金的一部分。",[14,1624,1625],{},"我们的最后一项优势是弥漫在伯克希尔的、难以复制的企业文化。在商业世界里，文化至关重要。",[14,1627,1628],{},"首先，代表你们的董事们像股东一样思考和行事。他们只领取象征性的报酬：没有期权、没有限制性股票，而且实际上也几乎没有现金。我们不为董事和高管购买责任保险，而几乎其他所有大型上市公司都会买。如果他们搞砸了你们的钱，他们自己也会赔钱。把我个人持股撇在一边不算，董事们及其家族持有的伯克希尔股份价值超过 30 亿美元。因此，我们的董事以极大的热情和所有者的眼光来监督伯克希尔的行动和业绩。有他们做管家，你们和我何其幸运。",[14,1630,1631],{},"这种所有者导向的文化在我们的经理人中同样盛行。很多情况下，这些人是主动找上伯克希尔来收购他们和家族长期拥有的企业的。他们带着所有者的心态加入我们，而我们提供的环境鼓励他们保持这种心态。拥有一批热爱自己企业的管理者，可不是什么小优势。",[14,1633,1634],{},"文化是会自我传播的。温斯顿·丘吉尔（Winston Churchill）曾说过：“你塑造了建筑，建筑反过来塑造你。”这句智慧同样适用于企业。官僚主义的程序会滋生更多官僚主义，帝王般的企业宫殿会催生专横的行为。（正如一句俏皮话所说，“当你坐进车后座却发现车纹丝不动时，你就知道自己不再是CEO了。”）在伯克希尔的”全球总部”，我们的年租金是 270,212 美元。此外，总部在家具、艺术品、可乐贩卖机、午餐室、高科技设备等方面的全部投资——你能想到的——合计 301,363 美元。只要查理和我把你们的钱当自己的钱来对待，伯克希尔的经理人也会同样小心谨慎。",[14,1636,1637],{},"我们的薪酬方案、年度股东大会、甚至我们的年度报告，都围绕着一个目标来设计：强化伯克希尔的文化，让它成为一种能排斥和驱逐异类管理者的文化。这种文化每年都在增强，即使在查理和我离开之后很久，它也将完好无损地延续下去。",[14,1639,1640],{},"要做到还不错，我刚才描述的所有优势我们都需要。我们的经理人会交出好成绩，这一点你们尽管放心。但查理和我在资本配置方面能否守住阵地，部分取决于收购市场的竞争环境。我们会竭尽全力。",[720,1642,1643],{"id":1643},"盖可保险",[14,1645,1646],{},"现在让我给你们讲一个故事，它有助于你们理解一家企业的内在价值是如何远远超出其账面价值的。讲这个故事还能让我重温一些美好的记忆。",[14,1648,1649],{},"六十年前的上个月，盖可保险（GEICO）走进了我的生活，注定要以巨大的方式改变我的人生。当时我是哥伦比亚大学一名 20 岁的研究生，之所以选择去那儿，是因为我心目中的偶像本杰明·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）每周在学校教一次课。",[14,1651,1652],{},"有一天在图书馆，我在《美国名人录》中查到本杰明·格雷厄姆的词条，发现他是政府员工保险公司（Government Employees Insurance Co.，现在叫 GEICO）的董事长。我当时对保险一无所知，也从未听说过这家公司。不过图书管理员指引我去看一部保险公司大型汇编资料，读完 GEICO 那页后，我决定去拜访这家公司。第二个周六，我一大早就登上了去华盛顿的火车。",[14,1654,1655],{},"到了公司总部，大楼已经关门了。我拼命敲门，直到最后一个看门人出来了。我问他办公室里还有没有人能跟我聊聊，他把我领到了当时唯一还在的人面前——洛里默·戴维森（Lorimer Davidson）。",[14,1657,1658,1659,1662],{},"这就是我的幸运时刻。接下来四个小时里，“戴维”给我上了一堂关于保险和 GEICO 的课。一段美妙的友谊就此开始。不久后我从哥伦比亚大学毕业，成了奥马哈的一名股票推销员。当然，GEICO 是我首推的股票，凭借它我在几十位客户那里打开了良好的局面。GEICO 也让我的身家迈出了一大步，因为与戴维会面后不久，我就把 9,800 美元投资组合中的 75% 押在了这只股票上。（即便如此，我还觉得自己",[745,1660,1661],{},"过度","分散了。）",[14,1664,1665],{},"后来，戴维当上了 GEICO 的 CEO，把公司发展到了做梦都想不到的高度。但就在他退休几年之后的 1970 年代中期，公司陷入了困境。股价暴跌了 95% 以上，伯克希尔趁机在市场上买入了公司约三分之一的股份。数年之后，由于 GEICO 回购自家股票，我们的持股比例增加到了 50%。伯克希尔取得这一半股权的成本是 4,600 万美元。（尽管我们持股比例很高，但我们并未行使经营控制权。）",[14,1667,1668],{},"1996 年初，我们又收购了 GEICO 剩余的 50%。这促使已 95 岁高龄的戴维录了一段视频，说他多么高兴他挚爱的 GEICO 将永远归属伯克希尔。（他还打趣地总结道：“下次，沃伦，请先预约。”）",[14,1670,1671,1672,1678,1679,1682],{},"过去六十年间，GEICO 发生了太多事情，但它的核心目标——帮助美国人大幅节省汽车保险费用——始终不变。（拨打 1-800-847-7536 或访问 ",[1673,1674,1675],"a",{"href":1675,"rel":1676},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.GEICO.com",[1677],"nofollow"," 试试。）换句话说，要",[745,1680,1681],{},"配得上","保户的信赖，才能赢得他们的业务。专注于这个目标，公司已发展成为美国第三大汽车保险商，市场份额 8.8%。",[14,1684,1685],{},"1993 年 GEICO 的 CEO 托尼·奈斯利（Tony Nicely）接手时，市场份额是 2.0%，在此之前已经在这个水平徘徊了十多年。在托尼的领导下，GEICO 脱胎换骨，找到了一条持续增长的道路，同时保持承保纪律和低成本。",[14,1687,1688],{},"让我量化一下托尼的成绩。1996 年我们收购 GEICO 剩余 50% 股权时，成本约 23 亿美元，隐含的 100% 估值为 46 亿美元。当时 GEICO 的有形净资产为 19 亿美元。",[14,1690,1691],{},"隐含价值高出有形净资产 27 亿美元——这就是我们估算的 GEICO“商誉”当时的价值。这部分商誉代表的是当时与 GEICO 发生业务关系的保户的经济价值。1995 年，这些客户向公司支付了 28 亿美元的保费。因此，我们对 GEICO 客户的估值大约相当于他们每年支付给公司保费的 97%（27\u002F28）。按行业标准，这是一个非常高的价格。但 GEICO 不是普通的保险公司：由于运营成本极低，它的保户一直让公司有利可图，而且忠诚度也格外高。",[14,1693,1694],{},"现在，保费收入已达 143 亿美元并且还在增长。然而我们账上 GEICO 商誉的账面价值只有 14 亿美元，无论 GEICO 的价值增加多少，这个数字都不会变。（按照会计准则，如果商誉的经济价值下降，你需要减记其账面价值，但如果经济价值上升，则维持不变。）用我们 1996 年收购时采用的”97%保费收入”这把标尺来衡量，如今 GEICO 经济商誉的真实价值大约是 140 亿美元。十年、二十年后，这个数字很可能更高。GEICO 在 2011 年开局强劲——它是一份不断给予的礼物。",[14,1696,1697,1698,1701],{},"一个不容忽视的补充：在托尼的领导下，GEICO 已经发展出全美最大的个人保险",[745,1699,1700],{},"代理","业务之一，主要向我们的汽车保险客户销售住房保险。在这块业务中，我们代理的是一些与我们没有关联的保险公司。它们承担风险，我们只负责招揽客户。去年这项代理业务售出 769,898 份新保单，比前一年增长 34%。这项业务对我们最直接的好处是带来佣金收入；同样重要的是，它进一步巩固了我们与保户的关系，帮助我们留住客户。",[14,1703,1704],{},"我欠托尼和戴维太多了（仔细想想，还有那位看门人）。",[1582,1706],{},[14,1708,1709],{},"现在，让我们来审视伯克希尔的四大板块。每个板块的资产负债表和收益特征彼此迥然不同，把它们混在一起会妨碍分析。因此，我们将它们作为四项独立业务来呈现，查理和我也正是这么看待它们的。",[14,1711,1712],{},"我们先来看保险业务，这是伯克希尔的核心业务，也是多年来推动公司扩张的发动机。",[720,1714,1715],{"id":1715},"保险业务",[14,1717,1718],{},"财产意外险保险公司预先收取保费，事后支付理赔。在极端情况下，例如某些工伤事故引发的索赔，赔付可以延续数十年。这种”先收钱、后付款”的模式使我们持有大量资金——我们称之为”浮存金“——这些钱最终要归还给别人。在此期间，我们可以用这些浮存金为伯克希尔进行投资。尽管个别保单和理赔来来去去，但我们持有的浮存金相对于保费收入保持着惊人的稳定。因此，随着业务增长，浮存金也水涨船高。我们是怎么增长的，请看下表：",[21,1720,1721,1730],{},[24,1722,1723],{},[27,1724,1725,1727],{},[30,1726,1415],{},[30,1728,1729],{},"浮存金（百万美元）",[43,1731,1732,1739,1746,1753,1760],{},[27,1733,1734,1736],{},[48,1735,119],{},[48,1737,1738],{},"$ 39",[27,1740,1741,1743],{},[48,1742,257],{},[48,1744,1745],{},"237",[27,1747,1748,1750],{},[48,1749,392],{},[48,1751,1752],{},"1,632",[27,1754,1755,1757],{},[48,1756,529],{},[48,1758,1759],{},"27,871",[27,1761,1762,1764],{},[48,1763,662],{},[48,1765,1766],{},"65,832",[14,1768,1769,1770,1773,1774,1777],{},"如果我们收取的保费超过了运营费用和最终赔付损失的总和，我们就录得承保利润，这笔利润会加到浮存金带来的投资收益之上。当这种情况发生时，我们不仅能免费使用这笔资金，更妙的是，还因为持有它而",[745,1771,1772],{},"获得","报酬。可惜，所有保险公司都渴望实现这个美好结果，导致了激烈的竞争。在大多数年份，竞争激烈到整个财产意外险行业整体出现严重的承保",[745,1775,1776],{},"亏损","。这笔亏损实际上就是行业为持有浮存金所付出的代价。例如，州立农业保险（State Farm）是目前全美最大的保险公司，经营管理也很出色，但在过去十年中有七年出现了承保亏损，累计承保损失超过 200 亿美元。",[14,1779,1780],{},"在伯克希尔，我们已经连续八年实现承保盈利，这一时期的承保利润合计 170 亿美元。我相信，在未来大多数年份——虽然肯定不是每一年——我们都将继续保持承保盈利。如果做到了这一点，我们的浮存金将比免费还好。好比有人把 660 亿美元存在我们这里，还付给我们一笔费用请我们保管，然后让我们拿这笔钱去投资赚钱，我们自然获益匪浅。",[14,1782,1783,1784,1787],{},"我要再次强调，零成本的浮存金并",[745,1785,1786],{},"不是","整个财产意外险行业能够预期的结果。在大多数年份，行业保费不足以覆盖理赔加费用。因此，几十年来保险业有形资本的回报率远远落后于美国全行业的平均水平，这种令人遗憾的表现几乎可以肯定会延续下去。伯克希尔之所以拥有出色的经济效益，只是因为我们有一些卓越的管理者在经营一些非同寻常的业务。GEICO 的故事我们已经讲过了，但我们还有另外两家非常大的保险公司，以及一批规模较小的公司，每一家都以自己的方式闪闪发光。",[1582,1789],{},[14,1791,1792,1793,1796],{},"首先是伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团（Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group），由阿吉特·贾恩（Ajit Jain）掌舵。阿吉特承保的是其他人不愿意或没有资本承接的风险。他的运营融合了承保能力、速度、果断，以及最重要的——智慧，这种组合在保险业独一无二。但他从不让伯克希尔承担与自身资源不相称的风险。事实上，在这一点上我们比大多数大型保险公司",[745,1794,1795],{},"保守得多","。去年，阿吉特大幅扩展了人寿再保险业务，年保费收入约 20 亿美元，这项收入将持续数十年。",[14,1798,1799],{},"自 1985 年白手起家以来，阿吉特一手打造了一家拥有 300 亿美元浮存金和丰厚承保利润的保险企业，这是其他任何保险公司 CEO 都望尘莫及的壮举。凭借他的成就，他为伯克希尔增添了几十亿美元的价值。就连氪石（超人唯一的弱点）也奈何不了阿吉特。",[1582,1801],{},[14,1803,1804],{},"我们还有另一家保险业的强者——通用再保险（General Re），由泰德·蒙特罗斯（Tad Montross）执掌。",[14,1806,1807,1808,1811],{},"从根本上说，健全的保险经营需要遵循四条准则：(1) 了解可能导致保单产生赔付的",[745,1809,1810],{},"所有","风险；(2) 保守地评估任何风险实际造成损失的概率以及一旦发生的可能成本；(3) 设定的保费水平在覆盖预期赔付成本和运营费用后，平均而言能够产生利润；(4) 如果拿不到合理的保费就愿意放弃这笔生意。",[14,1813,1814],{},"许多保险公司前三条都能通过考验，却在第四条上栽了跟头。华尔街的催逼、代理机构和经纪人的压力，或者仅仅是一位睾酮驱动的 CEO 不甘接受保费规模缩水——这些因素导致太多保险公司以不合理的低价承保。“别人都在做，我们也得跟上”——这种想法在任何行业都是祸根，但在保险业尤为致命。",[14,1816,1817],{},"泰德始终恪守这四条准则，他的业绩就是明证。在他的领导下，通用再保险的巨额浮存金不仅是免费的，还有承保利润。我们预计平均而言这种状态将继续保持。",[1582,1819],{},[14,1821,1822],{},"最后，我们还拥有一批小型保险公司，其中大多数在保险业的各个冷门角落里深耕。总体而言，它们的业绩一直是盈利的，而且如下表所示，它们为我们提供的浮存金相当可观。查理和我非常珍视这些公司和它们的管理者。",[14,1824,1825],{},"以下是我们财产意外险和人寿保险业务所有四个板块的业绩记录：",[21,1827,1828,1846],{},[24,1829,1830],{},[27,1831,1832,1834,1837,1840,1843],{},[30,1833,1715],{},[30,1835,1836],{},"2010 年承保利润（百万美元）",[30,1838,1839],{},"2009 年承保利润（百万美元）",[30,1841,1842],{},"2010 年末浮存金（百万美元）",[30,1844,1845],{},"2009 年末浮存金（百万美元）",[43,1847,1848,1865,1882,1899,1916],{},[27,1849,1850,1853,1856,1859,1862],{},[48,1851,1852],{},"通用再保险",[48,1854,1855],{},"$ 452",[48,1857,1858],{},"$ 477",[48,1860,1861],{},"$ 20,049",[48,1863,1864],{},"$ 21,014",[27,1866,1867,1870,1873,1876,1879],{},[48,1868,1869],{},"伯克希尔再保险",[48,1871,1872],{},"176",[48,1874,1875],{},"250",[48,1877,1878],{},"30,370",[48,1880,1881],{},"27,753",[27,1883,1884,1887,1890,1893,1896],{},[48,1885,1886],{},"GEICO",[48,1888,1889],{},"1,117",[48,1891,1892],{},"649",[48,1894,1895],{},"10,272",[48,1897,1898],{},"9,613",[27,1900,1901,1904,1907,1910,1913],{},[48,1902,1903],{},"其他直保",[48,1905,1906],{},"268",[48,1908,1909],{},"84",[48,1911,1912],{},"5,141",[48,1914,1915],{},"5,061",[27,1917,1918,1921,1924,1927,1930],{},[48,1919,1920],{},"合计",[48,1922,1923],{},"$ 2,013",[48,1925,1926],{},"$ 1,460",[48,1928,1929],{},"$ 65,832",[48,1931,1932],{},"$ 63,441",[14,1934,1935],{},"在大型保险公司中，我认为伯克希尔是世界上最好的。",[720,1937,1939],{"id":1938},"制造业服务业和零售业","制造业、服务业和零售业",[14,1941,1942],{},"伯克希尔在这个板块的业务包罗万象。我们先来看看整个板块的资产负债表和利润表摘要。",[14,1944,1945],{},[17,1946,1947],{},"资产负债表 2010 年 12 月 31 日（百万美元）",[21,1949,1950,1965],{},[24,1951,1952],{},[27,1953,1954,1957,1960,1963],{},[30,1955,1956],{},"资产",[30,1958,1959],{},"金额",[30,1961,1962],{},"负债及股东权益",[30,1964,1959],{},[43,1966,1967,1981,1993,2005,2019,2033,2047,2061,2075],{},[27,1968,1969,1972,1975,1978],{},[48,1970,1971],{},"现金及等价物",[48,1973,1974],{},"$ 2,673",[48,1976,1977],{},"应付票据",[48,1979,1980],{},"$ 1,805",[27,1982,1983,1986,1989,1991],{},[48,1984,1985],{},"应收账款及票据",[48,1987,1988],{},"5,396",[48,1990],{},[48,1992],{},[27,1994,1995,1998,2001,2003],{},[48,1996,1997],{},"存货",[48,1999,2000],{},"7,101",[48,2002],{},[48,2004],{},[27,2006,2007,2010,2013,2016],{},[48,2008,2009],{},"其他流动资产",[48,2011,2012],{},"550",[48,2014,2015],{},"其他流动负债",[48,2017,2018],{},"8,169",[27,2020,2021,2024,2027,2030],{},[48,2022,2023],{},"流动资产合计",[48,2025,2026],{},"15,720",[48,2028,2029],{},"流动负债合计",[48,2031,2032],{},"9,974",[27,2034,2035,2038,2041,2044],{},[48,2036,2037],{},"商誉及其他无形资产",[48,2039,2040],{},"16,976",[48,2042,2043],{},"递延税款",[48,2045,2046],{},"3,001",[27,2048,2049,2052,2055,2058],{},[48,2050,2051],{},"固定资产",[48,2053,2054],{},"15,421",[48,2056,2057],{},"长期债务及其他负债",[48,2059,2060],{},"6,621",[27,2062,2063,2066,2069,2072],{},[48,2064,2065],{},"其他资产",[48,2067,2068],{},"3,029",[48,2070,2071],{},"股东权益",[48,2073,2074],{},"31,550",[27,2076,2077,2079,2082,2084],{},[48,2078,1920],{},[48,2080,2081],{},"$ 51,146",[48,2083,1920],{},[48,2085,2081],{},[14,2087,2088],{},[17,2089,2090],{},"利润表（百万美元）",[21,2092,2093,2106],{},[24,2094,2095],{},[27,2096,2097,2100,2102,2104],{},[30,2098,2099],{},"项目",[30,2101,662],{},[30,2103,648],{},[30,2105,634],{},[43,2107,2108,2122,2136,2150,2164,2178],{},[27,2109,2110,2113,2116,2119],{},[48,2111,2112],{},"收入",[48,2114,2115],{},"$ 66,610",[48,2117,2118],{},"$ 61,665",[48,2120,2121],{},"$ 59,100",[27,2123,2124,2127,2130,2133],{},[48,2125,2126],{},"运营费用（含折旧：2010 年 13.62 亿、2009 年 14.22 亿、2008 年 12.80 亿）",[48,2128,2129],{},"62,225",[48,2131,2132],{},"59,509",[48,2134,2135],{},"61,937",[27,2137,2138,2141,2144,2147],{},[48,2139,2140],{},"利息费用",[48,2142,2143],{},"111",[48,2145,2146],{},"98",[48,2148,2149],{},"139",[27,2151,2152,2155,2158,2161],{},[48,2153,2154],{},"税前利润",[48,2156,2157],{},"4,274*",[48,2159,2160],{},"2,058*",[48,2162,2163],{},"4,023*",[27,2165,2166,2169,2172,2175],{},[48,2167,2168],{},"所得税及少数股东权益",[48,2170,2171],{},"1,812",[48,2173,2174],{},"945",[48,2176,2177],{},"1,740",[27,2179,2180,2183,2186,2189],{},[48,2181,2182],{},"净利润",[48,2184,2185],{},"$ 2,462",[48,2187,2188],{},"$ 1,113",[48,2190,2191],{},"$ 2,283",[2193,2194,2195],"ul",{},[2196,2197,2198],"li",{},"不包括购买法会计调整。",[14,2200,2201,2202,2205],{},"这个板块的企业销售的产品五花八门，从棒棒糖到喷气式飞机。有些企业的经济效益极为出色，以无杠杆净",[745,2203,2204],{},"有形","资产收益率衡量，税后收益率从 25% 到超过 100%。还有一些企业的收益率在 12-20% 之间，也很不错。不幸的是，少数企业的收益率非常糟糕，这是我在资本配置工作中犯下的一些严重错误的结果。这些错误的产生，是因为我错判了所收购企业的竞争实力，或者错判了其所在行业的未来经济前景。每次收购时我都试着看十年二十年，但有时候难免老眼昏花。",[14,2207,2208],{},"这个板块中大多数企业去年的收益都有所提升，其中四家还创了纪录。我们先来看看这些破纪录的企业。",[2193,2210,2211,2214,2217,2220],{},[2196,2212,2213],{},"TTI 是我们的电子元器件分销商。2010 年销售额比此前的最高纪录（2008 年创下）高出 21%，税前利润更是超过以往最高纪录 58%。销售增长遍布三大洲：北美 16%、欧洲 26%、亚洲 50%。TTI 分销的数千种产品都是很普通的东西，很多单价不到一美元。TTI 卓越业绩的魔力来自其 CEO 保罗·安德鲁斯（Paul Andrews）及其团队。",[2196,2215,2216],{},"森林河公司（Forest River）是我们的房车和游艇制造商。2010 年创下了近 20 亿美元的销售记录，利润也同样创了新高。森林河拥有 82 家工厂，我一家都还没去过（总部也没去过）。没有必要；公司 CEO 皮特·利格尔（Pete Liegl）把企业经营得好极了。欢迎来年会看看他的产品。更好的做法是，买一辆。",[2196,2218,2219],{},"CTB 是我们的农业设备公司，再次刷新了盈利纪录。我在 2008 年年报中跟你们说过公司的 CEO 维克·曼奇内利（Vic Mancinelli），他越来越出色了。2002 年伯克希尔花了 1.4 亿美元收购 CTB，此后 CTB 已累计向我们支付了 1.6 亿美元股利，还清了 4,000 万美元债务。去年 CTB 的税前利润为 1.06 亿美元。生产效率的提高是这种增长的主要推动力。我们收购 CTB 时，每位员工的销售额为 189,365 美元，如今已增至 405,878 美元。",[2196,2221,2222],{},"你敢信还有制鞋业？吉姆·艾斯勒（Jim Issler）经营的 H.H. Brown 鞋业——以旗下 Born 品牌最为知名——创下了销售和利润的双重新纪录（在我们的年会上卖出了 1,110 双鞋也出了一份力）。吉姆出色地适应了行业的重大变革。顺便一提，吉姆的工作由 89 岁的弗兰克·鲁尼（Frank Rooney）监管。弗兰克是一位卓越的企业家，在高尔夫球场上也仍然是个你不敢跟他打赌的危险人物。",[14,2224,2225],{},"这个板块中年度进步最大的是利捷航空（NetJets）。我怎么强调都不为过戴夫·索科尔（Dave Sokol）在这家公司取得的成就的广度和重要性。利捷航空是飞机部分所有权的领军供应商。利捷航空长期以来在运营上一直很成功，2010 年的市场份额是最接近的竞争对手的五倍。我们压倒性的行业领先地位源于一支出色的飞行员、机械师和服务人员团队。2010 年这支团队再次出色完成工作，定期客户满意度调查显示满意度创了新高。",[14,2227,2228],{},"尽管利捷航空在客户中一直遥遥领先，但自从 1998 年收购以来，我们的财务结果却很失败。到 2009 年为止的 11 年间，公司累计税前亏损 1.57 亿美元，而这个数字还远远低估了实际情况，因为利捷航空的借款成本因免费使用伯克希尔的信用而获得了大量补贴。如果利捷航空独立运营，多年来的亏损还要再多出好几亿美元。",[14,2230,2231],{},"现在我们已经开始向利捷航空收取适当的伯克希尔担保费。尽管扣除了这笔费用（2010 年为 3,800 万美元），利捷航空 2010 年的税前利润仍达 2.07 亿美元，比 2009 年增加了 9.18 亿美元。戴夫迅速重组了管理层，合理化了公司的采购和支出政策，止住了现金的大量流失，把伯克希尔唯一的主要问题业务变成了一项稳定盈利的业务。",[14,2233,2234],{},"与此同时，戴夫保持了利捷航空在安全和服务方面的行业领先声誉。在许多重要方面，我们的培训和操作标准远高于联邦航空管理局（FAA）的要求。保持最高标准是正确的事情，不过我支持这项政策还有一个自私的理由。我和家人已经在利捷航空的飞机上飞行了 5,000 多个小时（相当于连续 7 个月每天飞 24 小时），将来还要再飞几千个小时。我们从不享受特殊待遇，随机使用过至少 100 架飞机和 300 组机组人员。无论哪架飞机、哪组机组，我们都知道自己是在与私人航空领域训练最精良的飞行员一起飞行。",[14,2236,2237],{},"制造业、服务业和零售业板块中最赚钱的是马蒙集团（Marmon），旗下有 130 项业务。我们即将按照计划从普利兹克（Pritzker）家族手中收购该公司 17% 的股份，届时我们的持股比例将增至 80%，成本约 15 亿美元。然后我们将在 2013 年或 2014 年收购普利兹克家族持有的剩余股份，具体时间由该家族选择。弗兰克·普塔克（Frank Ptak）把马蒙集团经营得很出色，我们期待能实现 100% 持股。",[14,2239,2240],{},"马蒙集团之后，这个板块中另外两家最赚钱的是伊斯卡（Iscar）和麦克莱恩（McLane）。两家公司都度过了出色的一年。2010 年，在格雷迪·罗齐尔（Grady Rosier）的领导下，麦克莱恩在其 320 亿美元的食品、香烟、糖果和杂货分销业务基础上，进入了葡萄酒和烈酒分销领域。在收购佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的 Empire 分销商时，我们与公司充满活力的 CEO 大卫·卡恩（David Kahn）联手合作。大卫正在带领我们向更广的地域扩张。到年底他已经完成了第一笔收购——田纳西州的 Horizon Wine and Spirits。",[14,2242,2243],{},"伊斯卡 2010 年的利润增长了 159%，2011 年我们很可能超越经济衰退前的水平。全球的销售都在改善，亚洲地区尤其突出。出色的表现要归功于艾坦·韦特海默（Eitan Wertheimer）、雅各布·哈帕兹（Jacob Harpaz）和丹尼·戈德曼（Danny Goldman），他们的业绩远远超过了伊斯卡的主要竞争对手。",[14,2245,2246],{},"以上这些都是好消息。然而，我们与住宅建筑相关的业务仍在苦苦挣扎。约翰斯·曼维尔（Johns Manville）、MiTek、肖氏工业（Shaw）和阿克米砖业（Acme Brick）都保持着竞争地位，但利润远低于几年前的水平。这几家公司合在一起，2010 年税前利润为 3.62 亿美元，而 2006 年是 13 亿美元，员工人数也减少了约 9,400 人。",[14,2248,2249],{},"房地产市场大约一年左右应该就会开始复苏。无论如何，复苏在某个时点是必然会发生的。因此：(1) 在过去 11 个月里，MiTek 已完成或承诺了 5 笔补强收购；(2) 阿克米砖业刚刚花 5,000 万美元收购了阿拉巴马州领先的砖厂；(3) 约翰斯·曼维尔正在俄亥俄州建造一家投资 5,500 万美元的屋顶防水膜工厂，明年竣工；(4) 肖氏工业 2011 年将在工厂和设备上投资 2 亿美元，全部位于美国境内。这些企业进入衰退时很强，走出衰退时会更强。在伯克希尔，我们的时间视野是永恒的。",[720,2251,2252],{"id":2252},"受管制的资本密集型业务",[14,2254,2255],{},"我们有两家非常大的企业——BNSF 铁路和中美能源（MidAmerican Energy），它们有一些重要的共同特征，使其有别于我们旗下的其他企业。因此，我们在这封信中将它们单列一个板块，并在通用会计准则（GAAP）资产负债表和利润表中单独列示它们的财务数据。",[14,2257,2258,2259,2262],{},"这两家企业的一个关键特征是在使用寿命很长的受管制资产上投入了巨额资金，而为这些资产提供的大量长期债务伯克希尔并",[745,2260,2261],{},"不","提供担保。我们的信用支持并不需要：即使在非常不利的经营环境下，这两家企业的盈利能力也能充分覆盖利息支出。例如，在经济衰退的 2010 年，尽管 BNSF 的车载运输量远低于峰值水平，公司的利息覆盖倍数仍高达 6 比 1。",[14,2264,2265],{},"这两家企业都受到严格监管，而且永远需要在工厂和设备上进行大规模投资。它们也需要提供高效、令客户满意的服务，以赢得所在社区和监管机构的尊重。作为回报，它们需要得到保证，未来的资本投入能够获得合理的回报。",[14,2267,2268],{},"前面我已经解释了铁路对国家未来的重要性。按吨英里衡量，铁路承担了美国 42% 的城际货运，而 BNSF 的运量超过了其他任何铁路公司——约占行业总量的 28%。稍微算一下就知道，美国城际货运吨英里总量中，超过 11% 是由 BNSF 运输的。鉴于美国人口向西部的迁移趋势，我们的份额很可能还会继续小幅攀升。",[14,2270,2271],{},"所有这些加起来是一份沉甸甸的责任。我们是美国经济循环系统中一个重要且不可或缺的组成部分，必须不断维护和改善我们 23,000 英里的铁路线及其附属的桥梁、隧道、机车和车厢。履行这份职责，我们必须预见社会的需求，而不仅仅是被动地回应。为了履行社会责任，我们的经常性资本支出将远超折旧额，2011 年这一差额为 20 亿美元。我相信我们的巨额增量投资将获得合理的回报。明智的监管和明智的投资是同一枚硬币的两面。",[14,2273,2274],{},"在中美能源，我们参与着一种类似的”社会契约”。我们被期望持续投入越来越多的资金，以满足客户未来的需求。如果我们同时能够可靠、高效地运营，我们知道这些投资将获得公平的回报。",[14,2276,2277],{},"中美能源向美国 240 万客户供电，是爱荷华州、怀俄明州和犹他州最大的电力供应商，也是其他几个州的重要供应商。我们的管道运输了全美 8% 的天然气。显而易见，每天有数以百万计的美国人依赖我们。",[14,2279,2280],{},"中美能源为其所有者（伯克希尔持股 89.8%）和客户都交出了出色的成绩单。就在 2002 年中美能源收购北方天然气管道（Northern Natural Gas）后不久，业界权威将该公司的管道运营排在倒数第一——43 家中的第 43 名。在最近发布的报告中，北方天然气已跃升至第二名。排名第一的是我们的另一条管道——科恩河（Kern River）。",[14,2282,2283],{},"在电力业务方面，中美能源同样表现出色。自我们 1999 年收购爱荷华州的电力业务以来，电价一直没有上调。同期，该州另一家主要电力公司的电价涨了 70% 以上，现在的费率远高于我们。在两家公司并行供电的某些城市地区，我们客户的电费远低于他们的邻居。有人告诉我，在这些城市里，位于我们服务区域的房子卖价更高。",[14,2285,2286,2287,2289],{},"到 2011 年底，中美能源的风力发电装机容量将达到 2,909 兆瓦，超过全美任何其他受监管的电力公司。中美能源已投入或承诺投入风电的总金额高达 54 亿美元，令人瞩目。我们之所以能进行如此规模的投资，是因为中美能源保留了",[745,2288,757],{},"收益——不像其他电力公司通常把大部分收益都分掉了。",[14,2291,2292],{},"你们现在看得出来，我为马特·罗斯（Matt Rose）在 BNSF 以及戴夫·索科尔（Dave Sokol）和格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）在中美能源为社会所取得的成就感到骄傲。我同样也为他们为伯克希尔股东所做出的贡献感到骄傲和感激。以下是相关数据：",[21,2294,2295,2308],{},[24,2296,2297],{},[27,2298,2299,2302,2305],{},[30,2300,2301],{},"中美能源",[30,2303,2304],{},"2010 年收益（百万美元）",[30,2306,2307],{},"2009 年收益（百万美元）",[43,2309,2310,2321,2332,2343,2354,2365,2376,2387,2398,2409,2420,2430],{},[27,2311,2312,2315,2318],{},[48,2313,2314],{},"英国公用事业",[48,2316,2317],{},"$ 333",[48,2319,2320],{},"$ 248",[27,2322,2323,2326,2329],{},[48,2324,2325],{},"爱荷华州公用事业",[48,2327,2328],{},"279",[48,2330,2331],{},"285",[27,2333,2334,2337,2340],{},[48,2335,2336],{},"西部公用事业",[48,2338,2339],{},"783",[48,2341,2342],{},"788",[27,2344,2345,2348,2351],{},[48,2346,2347],{},"管道业务",[48,2349,2350],{},"378",[48,2352,2353],{},"457",[27,2355,2356,2359,2362],{},[48,2357,2358],{},"家庭服务",[48,2360,2361],{},"42",[48,2363,2364],{},"43",[27,2366,2367,2370,2373],{},[48,2368,2369],{},"其他（净额）",[48,2371,2372],{},"47",[48,2374,2375],{},"25",[27,2377,2378,2381,2384],{},[48,2379,2380],{},"企业利息和税前经营收益",[48,2382,2383],{},"1,862",[48,2385,2386],{},"1,846",[27,2388,2389,2392,2395],{},[48,2390,2391],{},"利息支出（不含支付给伯克希尔的）",[48,2393,2394],{},"(323)",[48,2396,2397],{},"(318)",[27,2399,2400,2403,2406],{},[48,2401,2402],{},"支付伯克希尔的次级债利息",[48,2404,2405],{},"(30)",[48,2407,2408],{},"(58)",[27,2410,2411,2414,2417],{},[48,2412,2413],{},"所得税",[48,2415,2416],{},"(271)",[48,2418,2419],{},"(313)",[27,2421,2422,2424,2427],{},[48,2423,2182],{},[48,2425,2426],{},"$ 1,238",[48,2428,2429],{},"$ 1,157",[27,2431,2432,2435,2438],{},[48,2433,2434],{},"归属伯克希尔的收益*",[48,2436,2437],{},"$ 1,131",[48,2439,2440],{},"$ 1,071",[2193,2442,2443],{},[2196,2444,2445],{},"包含伯克希尔获得的利息收入（扣除相关所得税后）：2010 年 1,900 万美元，2009 年 3,800 万美元。",[21,2447,2448,2461],{},[24,2449,2450],{},[27,2451,2452,2455,2458],{},[30,2453,2454],{},"BNSF（2010 年 2 月 12 日前为历史会计，此后为购买法会计）",[30,2456,2457],{},"2010 年（百万美元）",[30,2459,2460],{},"2009 年（百万美元）",[43,2462,2463,2473,2484,2495,2505],{},[27,2464,2465,2467,2470],{},[48,2466,2112],{},[48,2468,2469],{},"$ 16,850",[48,2471,2472],{},"$ 14,016",[27,2474,2475,2478,2481],{},[48,2476,2477],{},"经营收益",[48,2479,2480],{},"4,495",[48,2482,2483],{},"3,254",[27,2485,2486,2489,2492],{},[48,2487,2488],{},"利息（净额）",[48,2490,2491],{},"507",[48,2493,2494],{},"613",[27,2496,2497,2499,2502],{},[48,2498,2154],{},[48,2500,2501],{},"3,988",[48,2503,2504],{},"2,641",[27,2506,2507,2509,2512],{},[48,2508,2182],{},[48,2510,2511],{},"2,459",[48,2513,2514],{},"1,721",[720,2516,2517],{"id":2517},"金融和金融产品业务",[14,2519,2520],{},"这是我们最小的板块，包括两家租赁公司——XTRA（拖车租赁）和科特商业服务公司（CORT，家具租赁），以及全美最大的预制房屋建造和融资公司克莱顿住宅（Clayton Homes）。",[14,2522,2523],{},"两家租赁公司去年的业绩都有所改善，尽管基数很低。XTRA 的设备利用率从 2009 年的 63% 提高到 2010 年的 75%，税前利润也从 2009 年的 1,700 万美元增至 3,500 万美元。科特家具随着年度的推进业务逐步回升，同时也大幅收紧了运营。两项因素叠加，税前业绩从 2009 年亏损 300 万美元变为 2010 年盈利 1,800 万美元。",[14,2525,2526],{},"在克莱顿住宅，我们建造了 23,343 套预制房，占行业总量 50,046 套的 47%。对比一下 1998 年的行业高峰，当年共生产了 372,843 套预制房（我们当时的行业份额只有 8%）。不管在什么情况下，去年的销售都会很糟糕，但我在 2009 年报告中评论过的融资问题还在雪上加霜。具体来说：政府的住房融资政策——体现在联邦住房管理局（FHA）、房地美（Freddie Mac）和房利美（Fannie Mae）认可的贷款标准中——偏向现场建造的住宅，抵消了预制房的价格优势。",[14,2528,2529],{},"我们为预制房买家提供的贷款超过任何其他公司。因此，我们的经验对那些准备改革国家住房贷款实务的人应该具有借鉴意义。我们来看看具体数据。",[14,2531,2532],{},"克莱顿自己发放的抵押贷款有 200,804 笔。（它还购买了一些抵押贷款组合。）在这些合同发放时，借款人的平均 FICO 信用评分为 648，其中 47% 的评分在 640 或以下。你们的银行家会告诉你，这种评分的人通常被视为信用可疑的客户。",[14,2534,2535],{},"尽管如此，我们的贷款组合在压力环境下表现良好。以下是过去五年我们自行发放贷款的损失情况：",[21,2537,2538,2547],{},[24,2539,2540],{},[27,2541,2542,2544],{},[30,2543,32],{},[30,2545,2546],{},"平均贷款余额净损失率",[43,2548,2549,2556,2563,2570,2577],{},[27,2550,2551,2553],{},[48,2552,609],{},[48,2554,2555],{},"1.53%",[27,2557,2558,2560],{},[48,2559,623],{},[48,2561,2562],{},"1.27%",[27,2564,2565,2567],{},[48,2566,634],{},[48,2568,2569],{},"1.17%",[27,2571,2572,2574],{},[48,2573,648],{},[48,2575,2576],{},"1.86%",[27,2578,2579,2581],{},[48,2580,662],{},[48,2582,2583],{},"1.72%",[14,2585,2586,2587,2590],{},"我们的借款人遇到麻烦，通常是因为失业、健康问题、离婚等等。经济衰退对他们打击很大。但他们想保住自己的房子，而且通常他们的借款金额与收入相比是合理的。此外，我们把自己发放的贷款留在自己的账上，这意味着我们没有将它们证券化或以其他方式转售。如果我们放贷愚蠢，",[745,2588,2589],{},"我们","自己就要付出代价。这种切身利害关系让人格外清醒。",[14,2592,2593,2594,2597],{},"如果全国的购房者都像我们的客户一样行事，美国就不会发生那场危机。我们的做法很简单：收取有意义的首付款，把",[745,2595,2596],{},"固定的","月还款额控制在收入的合理比例之内。这项政策使克莱顿保持了偿付能力，也帮助客户保住了房子。",[14,2599,2600],{},"对大多数美国人来说，拥有住房是明智的选择，尤其是在当前房价较低、利率优惠的环境下。综合来看，我这辈子第三成功的投资就是买自己的房子——虽然如果我当时租房住、把买房的钱拿去买股票，赚到的钱会多得多。（排在前两位的最佳投资是两枚婚戒。）花了 31,500 美元买下我们的房子，我和家人收获了 52 年的美好回忆，而且还将继续。",[14,2602,2603],{},"但如果买家的眼光高过了他的钱包，而放贷机构——往往受到政府担保的庇护——纵容了他的幻想，那房子就可能变成一场噩梦。我们国家的社会目标不应该是让每个家庭住进梦想中的豪宅，而应该是让他们住进负担得起的房子。",[720,2605,2606],{"id":2606},"投资业务",[14,2608,2609],{},"以下是我们年末市值超过 10 亿美元的普通股投资：",[21,2611,2612,2631],{},[24,2613,2614],{},[27,2615,2616,2619,2622,2625,2628],{},[30,2617,2618],{},"股数",[30,2620,2621],{},"公司",[30,2623,2624],{},"持股比例 (12\u002F31\u002F10)",[30,2626,2627],{},"成本（百万美元）*",[30,2629,2630],{},"市值（百万美元）",[43,2632,2633,2649,2665,2681,2697,2714,2731,2747,2763,2779,2795,2812,2828,2844,2861,2876],{},[27,2634,2635,2638,2641,2643,2646],{},[48,2636,2637],{},"151,610,700",[48,2639,2640],{},"美国运通 (American Express)",[48,2642,455],{},[48,2644,2645],{},"$ 1,287",[48,2647,2648],{},"$ 6,507",[27,2650,2651,2654,2657,2659,2662],{},[48,2652,2653],{},"225,000,000",[48,2655,2656],{},"比亚迪 (BYD)",[48,2658,307],{},[48,2660,2661],{},"232",[48,2663,2664],{},"1,182",[27,2666,2667,2670,2673,2675,2678],{},[48,2668,2669],{},"200,000,000",[48,2671,2672],{},"可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)",[48,2674,1360],{},[48,2676,2677],{},"1,299",[48,2679,2680],{},"13,154",[27,2682,2683,2686,2689,2691,2694],{},[48,2684,2685],{},"29,109,637",[48,2687,2688],{},"康菲石油 (ConocoPhillips)",[48,2690,902],{},[48,2692,2693],{},"2,028",[48,2695,2696],{},"1,982",[27,2698,2699,2702,2705,2708,2711],{},[48,2700,2701],{},"45,022,563",[48,2703,2704],{},"强生 (Johnson & Johnson)",[48,2706,2707],{},"1.6",[48,2709,2710],{},"2,749",[48,2712,2713],{},"2,785",[27,2715,2716,2719,2722,2725,2728],{},[48,2717,2718],{},"97,214,584",[48,2720,2721],{},"卡夫食品 (Kraft Foods)",[48,2723,2724],{},"5.6",[48,2726,2727],{},"3,207",[48,2729,2730],{},"3,063",[27,2732,2733,2736,2739,2741,2744],{},[48,2734,2735],{},"19,259,600",[48,2737,2738],{},"慕尼黑再保险 (Munich Re)",[48,2740,401],{},[48,2742,2743],{},"2,896",[48,2745,2746],{},"2,924",[27,2748,2749,2752,2755,2757,2760],{},[48,2750,2751],{},"3,947,555",[48,2753,2754],{},"浦项制铁 (POSCO)",[48,2756,1250],{},[48,2758,2759],{},"768",[48,2761,2762],{},"1,706",[27,2764,2765,2768,2771,2773,2776],{},[48,2766,2767],{},"72,391,036",[48,2769,2770],{},"宝洁 (Procter & Gamble)",[48,2772,618],{},[48,2774,2775],{},"464",[48,2777,2778],{},"4,657",[27,2780,2781,2784,2787,2789,2792],{},[48,2782,2783],{},"25,848,838",[48,2785,2786],{},"赛诺菲-安万特 (Sanofi-Aventis)",[48,2788,902],{},[48,2790,2791],{},"2,060",[48,2793,2794],{},"1,656",[27,2796,2797,2800,2803,2806,2809],{},[48,2798,2799],{},"242,163,773",[48,2801,2802],{},"乐购 (Tesco)",[48,2804,2805],{},"3.0",[48,2807,2808],{},"1,414",[48,2810,2811],{},"1,608",[27,2813,2814,2817,2820,2822,2825],{},[48,2815,2816],{},"78,060,769",[48,2818,2819],{},"美国合众银行 (U.S. Bancorp)",[48,2821,1262],{},[48,2823,2824],{},"2,401",[48,2826,2827],{},"2,105",[27,2829,2830,2833,2836,2839,2842],{},[48,2831,2832],{},"39,037,142",[48,2834,2835],{},"沃尔玛 (Wal-Mart)",[48,2837,2838],{},"1.1",[48,2840,2841],{},"1,893",[48,2843,2827],{},[27,2845,2846,2849,2852,2855,2858],{},[48,2847,2848],{},"358,936,125",[48,2850,2851],{},"富国银行 (Wells Fargo)",[48,2853,2854],{},"6.8",[48,2856,2857],{},"8,015",[48,2859,2860],{},"11,123",[27,2862,2863,2865,2868,2871,2874],{},[48,2864],{},[48,2866,2867],{},"其他",[48,2869,2870],{},"3,020",[48,2872,2873],{},"4,956",[48,2875],{},[27,2877,2878,2880,2883,2886,2889],{},[48,2879],{},[48,2881,2882],{},"按市值计算的普通股投资合计",[48,2884,2885],{},"$ 33,733",[48,2887,2888],{},"$ 61,513",[48,2890],{},[2193,2892,2893],{},[2196,2894,2895],{},"这是我们的实际购买价格，也是我们的税基。由于某些情况下要求进行增值或减值调整，通用会计准则（GAAP）下的”成本”在少数案例中有所不同。",[14,2897,2898],{},"我们在报告收益中只反映投资组合公司支付给我们的股利。然而，去年我们在这些被投资公司未分配收益中所占的份额超过了 20 亿美元。这些留存收益非常重要。根据我们的经验——实际上也是过去一个世纪投资者的经验——未分配收益创造出的市场价值增长与之相当甚至更高，尽管这个过程极不规律。（事实上，有时候两者的走势还会相反。正如一位投资者在 2009 年所说：“这比离婚还惨。我已经损失了一半身家——但老婆还在。”）展望未来，我们预计我们被投资公司带来的市场价值增长最终至少将等于它们留存的收益。",[1582,2900],{},[14,2902,2903,2904,2907],{},"此前在估算伯克希尔的常规盈利能力时，我们对未来的投资收益做了三项调整（但",[745,2905,2906],{},"没有","包括我刚才说的未分配收益因素）。",[14,2909,2910],{},"第一项调整是明确负面的。去年我们讨论过五笔大额固定收益投资，它们对我们的报告收益贡献了可观的金额。其中之一——我们的瑞士再保险（Swiss Re）票据——已于 2011 年初被赎回；另外两笔——我们持有的高盛（Goldman Sachs）和通用电气（General Electric）优先股——很可能在年底前被赎回。通用电气有权在 10 月份赎回我们的优先股，并已表明了这一意向。高盛有权在提前 30 天通知后赎回我们的优先股，但一直被美联储拦着（感恩哪！），不过美联储恐怕不久后就会给高盛放行了。",[14,2912,2913],{},"这三家公司赎回时都必须向我们支付溢价——合计约 14 亿美元——但所有这些赎回仍然是不受欢迎的。赎回完成后，我们的盈利能力将大幅下降。这是坏消息。",[14,2915,2916],{},"好消息有两个，可以部分抵消。年底时我们持有 380 亿美元的现金等价物，它们在整个 2010 年只赚了微不足道的利息。但总有一天利率会回升。这将为我们的投资收益至少增加 5 亿美元——也许还远不止。货币市场收益率的这种提升不太可能很快到来，但把利率提高纳入”常规”盈利能力的估算中是合理的。甚至在利率回升之前，我们也可能碰上好运，找到机会用手中的一部分现金获取不错的回报。那一天对我来说永远不嫌早。套用伊索的话来说：坐在敞篷车里的一个女孩，抵得上电话簿里的五个。",[14,2918,2919],{},"此外，我们目前持有的普通股的股利几乎肯定会增加。最大的增长很可能来自富国银行（Wells Fargo）。美联储——在高盛这件事上帮了我们的忙——过去两年无论银行强弱，一律冻结了主要银行的股利水平。富国银行虽然在整个经济衰退最严重的时期都持续保持繁荣，目前更是拥有强大的财务实力和盈利能力，却被迫维持着人为压低的分红水平。（我们不怪美联储：出于多种原因，在危机期间及其余波中实施全面冻结是合情合理的。）",[14,2921,2922],{},"美联储的限制很可能不久就会解除。届时富国银行就能恢复其股东应得的合理股利政策。到那时，我们预计仅从这一只股票获得的年度股利就将增加好几亿美元。",[14,2924,2925,2926,2929],{},"我们持有的其他公司也很可能会提高股利。1995 年——也就是我们完成可口可乐（Coca-Cola）建仓的次年——可口可乐向我们支付了 8,800 万美元股利。此后每年可口可乐都在提高股息。2011 年我们几乎肯定会从可口可乐收到 3.76 亿美元，比去年增加 2,400 万美元。我预计十年内这 3.76 亿美元将会翻番。到那时，如果我们在可口可乐",[745,2927,2928],{},"年度","收益中所占的份额超过我们当初 13 亿美元投资成本的 100%，我也不会感到惊讶。时间是好生意的朋友。",[14,2931,2932],{},"总的来说，我认为我们的”常规”投资收入至少将与 2010 年持平，尽管前面提到的赎回会减少我们 2011 年、也许还有 2012 年的收益。",[1582,2934],{},[14,2936,2937],{},"去年夏天，路易·辛普森（Lou Simpson）告诉我他想退休。路易才 74 岁——查理和我认为这个年纪在伯克希尔只够当实习生——所以他的决定让我很意外。",[14,2939,2940],{},"路易 1979 年加入 GEICO 担任投资经理，他对公司的贡献无可估量。在 2004 年的年报中我详细介绍了他的股票投资业绩，之后我没有继续更新，只是因为他的表现让我的业绩相形见绌。谁愿意自找没趣呢？",[14,2942,2943],{},"路易从来不爱炫耀自己的才能。但我会替他说：简单地说，路易是投资界的传奇之一。我们会想念他。",[1582,2945],{},[14,2947,2948],{},"四年前，我告诉过你们，我们需要增加一位或几位年轻的投资经理，以便在查理、路易和我不在之后接班。当时我们有多位出色的候选人可以立即接任我的 CEO 职务（现在也是如此），但在投资领域还没有合适的后备人选。",[14,2950,2951,2952,2955],{},"很容易找到许多近期业绩出色的投资经理。但过去的业绩虽然重要，在评判未来表现时却不够充分。业绩是",[745,2953,2954],{},"怎样","取得的至关重要，经理人对风险的理解和敏感度也同样关键（风险绝不应该用贝塔系数来衡量，尽管太多学者偏爱这种做法）。在风险评估这个标准上，我们在找一种难以衡量的能力：预判以前从未出现过的经济情景的影响。最后，我们希望找到一个把为伯克希尔工作看得远不只是一份工作的人。",[14,2957,2958],{},"当查理和我见到托德·库姆斯（Todd Combs）时，我们就知道他符合我们的全部要求。托德的薪酬安排与路易相同——一份基本工资加上根据其业绩相对于标普 500 指数的表现而定的奖金。我们已经安排了收入延期和结转机制，以防止忽上忽下的表现获得不当的报酬。对冲基金业曾上演过一些令人发指的行径：普通合伙人（GP）在行情好的时候拿走巨额报酬，而当业绩变差时，拍拍屁股走人，自己赚得盆满钵满，有限合伙人（LP）则把之前的收益全吐了回去。有时候这些 GP 紧接着又迅速发起一只新基金，好让自己马上就能参与未来的利润分成，而不必先弥补过去的亏损。把钱托付给这种人的投资者，该叫”冤大头”，而不是”合伙人”。",[14,2960,2961],{},"只要我还担任 CEO，我就会继续管理伯克希尔绝大部分的持仓，包括债券和股票。托德初期将管理 10 亿到 30 亿美元的资金，这个规模他每年可以重新调整。他的重点是股票，但不限于此。（基金顾问喜欢要求按”做多做空”、“宏观”、“国际股票”之类的风格框来分类。在伯克希尔，我们只有一个风格框——“聪明”。）",[14,2963,2964],{},"随着时间推移，如果找到了合适的人选，我们可能会再增加一两位投资经理。如果这样做的话，每位经理人的绩效薪酬大概 80% 取决于自己管理的投资组合，20% 取决于其他经理人的组合。我们希望建立一种薪酬体系，既能为个人的卓越成果提供丰厚回报，同时也能促进合作而非竞争。",[14,2966,2967],{},"等查理和我不在之后，我们的投资经理将按照 CEO 和董事会规定的方式对整个投资组合负责。因为出色的投资者能为企业收购带来有益的视角，我们希望就可能的收购是否明智征询他们的意见——但不给他们投票权。当然，最终由董事会就任何重大收购做出决策。",[14,2969,2970],{},"一个小注脚：当我们发布托德加盟的新闻稿时，不少评论员指出他是个”无名之辈”，并对我们没有找一个”大牌”表示困惑。我很好奇，他们中有多少人在 1979 年听说过路易·辛普森？在 1985 年认识阿吉特·贾恩？或者在 1959 年听说过查理·芒格？我们的目标是找到一匹两岁的”秘书处”（Secretariat，传奇赛马），而不是一匹十岁的”海洋饼干”（Seabiscuit）。（哎呀——对一个 80 岁的 CEO 来说，这个比喻可能不太明智。）",[720,2972,2973],{"id":2973},"金融衍生品",[14,2975,2976],{},"两年前在 2008 年年报中，我告诉你们伯克希尔持有 251 份衍生品合约（不包括子公司运营中使用的合约，如中美能源的，以及通用再保险遗留的少数合约）。如今这个数字是 203 份，变化反映了我们组合中新增了几份合约，以及部分合约被解除或到期。",[14,2978,2979],{},"我们持有的这些头寸——全部由我本人负责——主要分为两大类。我们把这两类头寸都视为类保险活动：我们收取保费，承担别人想要转移的风险。事实上，我们在这些衍生品交易中运用的思维方式和保险业务完全一样。你们还应该了解，我们在签订合约时就预先收到了费用，因此不存在交易对手风险。这一点很重要。",[14,2981,2982],{},"第一类衍生品包括 2004-2008 年间签订的一批合约，约定如果某些高收益率指数中的成份公司发生债券违约，我们需要进行赔付。除极少数例外，我们面临这些风险的期限为五年，每份合约涵盖 100 家公司。",[14,2984,2985],{},"这些合约我们总共收取了 34 亿美元保费。2007 年年报中我第一次向你们介绍这些合约时，我说预计它们将为我们带来”承保利润“，即我们的赔付将低于收取的保费。此外，我说我们还将从使用浮存金中获益。",[14,2987,2988],{},"后来的事你们也知道了，我们遭遇了金融恐慌和严重的经济衰退。高收益率指数中有不少公司破产了，我们因此赔付了 25 亿美元。不过，现在我们面临的风险基本已经过去，因为大多数高风险合约已经到期。因此，我们几乎可以确定将像当初预期的那样获得承保利润。此外，在合约存续期间，我们还使用了平均约 20 亿美元的无息浮存金。简而言之，我们收取的保费金额是恰当的，这在三年前经济环境急剧恶化时保护了我们。",[14,2990,2991],{},"我们的另一大类衍生品头寸——合约名称叫”股票看跌期权”——是我们为希望对冲美国、英国、欧洲和日本股票价格下跌风险的投资者承保的保险。这些合约与各种股票指数挂钩，如美国的标普 500 指数和英国的富时 100 指数。2004-2008 年间，我们签订了 47 份此类合约，收取了 48 亿美元保费，大多数合约期限为 15 年。对于这些合约，只有到期日当天的指数价格才算数：在此之前无需进行任何赔付。",[14,2993,2994],{},"先更新一下这些合约的最新情况。2010 年下半年，在交易对手的提议下，我们解除了 8 份合约，它们原定于 2021 至 2028 年间到期。我们最初收取的保费为 6.47 亿美元，解约时支付了 4.25 亿美元。因此，我们实现了 2.22 亿美元的收益，而且在大约三年的时间里无息、无限制地使用了那 6.47 亿美元。",[14,2996,2997],{},"2010 年底这些交易之后，我们账上还剩下 39 份股票看跌期权合约。这些合约签订之初，我们总共收到了 42 亿美元保费。",[14,2999,3000],{},"这些合约的未来当然充满不确定性。但这里提供一个观察角度。如果相关指数在合约到期日的价格与 2010 年 12 月 31 日相同——并且汇率不变——我们在 2018 至 2026 年间到期时将需赔付 38 亿美元。你们可以把这个金额称为”结算价值”。",[14,3002,3003],{},"然而在我们年末的资产负债表上，这些剩余看跌期权的负债记为 67 亿美元。换句话说，如果相关指数的价格从那天起保持不变，未来几年我们将录得 29 亿美元的收益——即 67 亿美元的负债与 38 亿美元结算价值之间的差额。我相信股票价格很可能会上涨，我们的负债从现在到结算日之间将大幅下降。如果是这样，从当前算起我们的收益将更大。当然，这远非确定的事。",[14,3005,3006],{},"可以确定的是，我们将在平均约 10 年的时间里继续使用剩余的 42 亿美元”浮存金“。（这部分浮存金以及高收益合约产生的浮存金都不包含在 660 亿美元的浮存金数字中。）由于资金是可替代的，不妨把其中一部分看作是用来收购 BNSF 铁路的。",[14,3008,3009],{},"正如我以前告诉过你们的，我们几乎所有的衍生品合约都没有提供抵押品的义务——这一事实降低了我们本来能收取的保费。但也正是这一点让我们在金融危机期间感到从容，使我们在那些日子里得以承诺进行一些有利可图的购买。事后看来，放弃一些额外的衍生品保费是完全值得的。",[720,3011,3013],{"id":3012},"报告与误报重要的数字和不重要的数字","报告与误报：重要的数字和不重要的数字",[14,3015,3016],{},"在这封信的前面部分，我列出了查理和我认为对评估伯克希尔价值和衡量其进展有用的一些数字。",[14,3018,3019,3020,3023],{},"下面我们来重点谈谈一个被我们省略的数字，但却是媒体最热衷报道的：净利润。这个数字在大多数公司可能很重要，但在伯克希尔几乎",[745,3021,3022],{},"毫无意义","。不管我们的业务经营得如何，查理和我都可以——完全合法地——让任何一个时期的净利润变成几乎任何我们想要的数字。",[14,3025,3026,3027,3030,3031,3034,3035,3038,3039,3042],{},"我们之所以有这种灵活性，是因为",[745,3028,3029],{},"已实现","的投资损益被纳入了净利润数字，而",[745,3032,3033],{},"未实现","的利得（以及大多数情况下的损失）则被排除在外。比方说，假设伯克希尔某年有 100 亿美元的未实现投资利得增长，同时发生了 10 亿美元的已实现投资损失。我们的净利润——只计入那笔亏损——报出来会",[745,3036,3037],{},"低于","我们的经营收益。如果我们同时在",[745,3040,3041],{},"上一年","有已实现利得，新闻标题可能会宣称我们的收益下降了 X%，而实际上我们的业务可能大大改善了。",[14,3044,3045,3046,3049],{},"如果我们真觉得净利润这个数字重要的话，我们可以定期将已实现利得注入其中——因为我们有大量的未实现利得可供使用，这太容易了。不过请放心，查理和我",[745,3047,3048],{},"从未","因为卖出某只证券会影响我们即将公布的净利润数字而去卖出它。我们都对”玩数字游戏”深恶痛绝——这种行为在 1990 年代的美国企业界泛滥成灾，如今虽有所收敛，但并未根绝。",[14,3051,3052],{},"尽管存在一些不足，经营收益总体而言是衡量我们业务状况的合理指标。请忽略我们的净利润数字。法规要求我们向你们报告这个数字。但如果你看到媒体记者揪住它不放，那说明的是他们的水平，而不是我们的表现。",[14,3054,3055],{},"已实现和未实现的损益都完全反映在我们账面价值的计算中。关注账面价值的变化和我们的经营收益走势，你就走对了路。",[1582,3057],{},[14,3059,3060,3061,3064],{},"附带说一句，我忍不住要指出报告的净利润可以有多么反复无常。假如我们的股票看跌期权到期日是 2010 年 6 月 30 日，那天我们就需要向交易对手支付 64 亿美元。之后的一个季度证券价格普遍上涨，相应数字在 9 月 30 日降至 58 亿美元。然而，我们用来评估这些合约的布莱克-舒尔斯（Black-Scholes）公式却要求我们在此期间将资产负债表上的负债从 89 亿美元",[745,3062,3063],{},"增加","到 96 亿美元。这一变化在计入应计税款影响后，使我们当季的净利润减少了 4.55 亿美元。",[14,3066,3067],{},"查理和我都认为，布莱克-舒尔斯模型在应用于长期期权时会产生极其不靠谱的估值。两年前我们在这里举了一个荒谬的例子。更实际地说，我们拿真金白银为自己的观点背书——签订了这些股票看跌期权合约。这样做实际上等于含蓄地宣告：我们的交易对手或其客户使用的布莱克-舒尔斯计算是有缺陷的。",[14,3069,3070],{},"但我们在编制财务报表时仍然继续使用这个公式。布莱克-舒尔斯是公认的期权估值标准——几乎所有顶尖商学院都在教它——如果我们偏离它，就会被指控做假账。而且，如果我们另搞一套，审计师也会面临一个无法解决的问题：他们的其他客户是我们的交易对手，对同样的合约也在使用布莱克-舒尔斯估值。如果双方的数字相差太大，审计师就没法同时证明两边的估值都是准确的。",[14,3072,3073,3074,3077],{},"布莱克-舒尔斯之所以受到审计师和监管者的青睐，部分原因在于它能给出一个精确的数字。而查理和我给不出精确数字。我们认为，我们这些合约的真实负债远低于布莱克-舒尔斯的计算结果，但我们拿不出一个精确的数字——就像我们无法给出 GEICO、BNSF 铁路或伯克希尔本身的",[745,3075,3076],{},"精确","价值一样。不能精确定位一个数字并不困扰我们：我们宁愿模糊地正确，也不要精确地错误。",[14,3079,3080],{},"约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷思（John Kenneth Galbraith）曾俏皮地说，经济学家在思想方面最为节俭：他们把研究生院学到的东西用上了一辈子。大学金融系往往也是如此。看看在整个 1970 年代和 1980 年代，几乎所有人都多么顽固地坚守有效市场理论，轻蔑地将那些强有力的反面事实称为”异常现象”。（我一向很喜欢这种解释方式：地平说学会大概也会把轮船环球航行视为一个恼人但无关紧要的异常现象吧。）",[14,3082,3083,3084,3087],{},"学术界当前将布莱克-舒尔斯公式作为真理来教授的做法需要重新审视。同样需要重新审视的，还有学术界对期权估值的过度迷恋。即使你完全不会给期权估值，你同样可以成为非常成功的投资者。学生们",[745,3085,3086],{},"真正应该","学习的是如何评估一家企业的价值。那才是投资的真谛。",[720,3089,3090],{"id":3090},"生活与债务",[14,3092,3093],{},"赛车的基本法则是：要拿第一，你得先跑完全程。这条准则同样适用于经营企业，指导着我们在伯克希尔的一举一动。",[14,3095,3096],{},"毫无疑问，有些人通过借钱确实发了大财。但借钱也同样可以让你一贫如洗。当杠杆发挥作用时，你的收益成倍放大。配偶觉得你真聪明，邻居们也羡慕得不行。但杠杆会让人上瘾。一旦从中尝到甜头，很少有人会回归保守的做法。正如我们在三年级就学过的——有些人在 2008 年又重新上了一课——任何一连串正数，不管多么令人印象深刻，一旦乘以一个零就全部化为乌有。历史一再告诉我们，杠杆太多时候会产生”零”，哪怕使用它的人非常聪明。",[14,3098,3099],{},"对企业来说，杠杆同样可以是致命的。负债累累的公司往往假定这些债务到期时可以再融资。这个假设通常是成立的。但偶尔——不管是因为公司自身的问题还是全球信用紧缩——到期的债务必须用真金白银来偿还。到了那时候，只有现金才靠得住。",[14,3101,3102,3103,3106],{},"然后借款人就会明白，信用就像氧气。充裕的时候，你根本不会注意到它的存在。一旦缺失，那就是你",[745,3104,3105],{},"唯一","能注意到的东西。即使是短暂的信用断裂也可以让一家公司跪下。事实上，2008 年 9 月，信用在多个经济领域一夜之间消失，几乎让我们整个国家都跪下了。",[14,3108,3109,3110,3113],{},"查理和我对任何可能对伯克希尔的安康造成哪怕最轻微威胁的活动都",[745,3111,3112],{},"毫无","兴趣。（我们俩加起来 167 岁了，“从头再来”可不在我们的心愿清单上。）我们永远铭记这样一个事实：你们——我们的合伙人——把在很多情况下占你们积蓄很大一部分的资金托付给了我们。此外，一些重要的慈善事业也仰赖于我们的审慎。最后，许多因我们投保人造成的事故而致残的受害者，指望我们在未来几十年里按时赔付。为了追求额外的几个百分点收益就把这么多人的利益置于风险之中，那是不负责任的。",[14,3115,3116],{},"一点个人经历也许可以部分解释我们为何对金融冒险主义极度厌恶。我直到查理 35 岁才和他相识，尽管他就在距我居住了 52 年的房子不到 100 码的地方长大，而且我们在奥马哈市区上的是同一所公立高中——我的父亲、妻子、三个孩子和两个孙子都毕业于此。不过查理和我小时候都在我爷爷的杂货店打过工，只不过我俩打工的时间差了大约五年。我爷爷的名字叫欧内斯特（Ernest），大概再没有人比他更配得上这个名字了（Ernest 在英文中意为”认真的”）。任何人只要在欧内斯特手下干过——哪怕只是个货架小工——都会被这段经历深深塑造。",[14,3118,3119],{},"后面你们可以读到一封欧内斯特 1939 年写给他最小的儿子、我叔叔弗雷德（Fred）的信。他的其他四个孩子也收到了类似的信。我至今还保存着写给我姑姑爱丽丝（Alice）的那封信——1970 年我作为她遗产的执行人打开她的银行保险箱时，发现了那封信和 1,000 美元现金。",[14,3121,3122,3123,3126],{},"欧内斯特从来没有上过商学院——事实上他连高中都没读完——但他深刻理解流动性作为",[745,3124,3125],{},"确保","生存前提的重要性。在伯克希尔，我们把他的 1,000 美元解决方案进一步发扬光大，我们承诺将始终持有至少 100 亿美元现金（不含受监管的公用事业和铁路业务所持现金）。因为有了这个承诺，我们通常手握至少 200 亿美元现金，这样既能承受前所未有的保险损失（迄今为止我们最大的一笔赔付约 30 亿美元，来自卡特里娜飓风——保险业史上最昂贵的灾难），又能在金融动荡时期迅速抓住收购或投资机会。",[14,3128,3129],{},"我们的现金主要以美国国债形式存放，避免持有那些多出几个基点收益的其他短期证券——这项政策我们早在 2008 年 9 月商业票据和货币市场基金的脆弱性暴露之前就长期坚持了。我们非常认同投资作家雷·德沃（Ray DeVoe）的观察：“因追逐高收益而损失的钱，比在枪口下损失的还多。”在伯克希尔，我们不依赖银行信贷额度，也不签订需要提供抵押品的合同——除非涉及的金额相对于我们的流动资产微不足道。",[14,3131,3132,3133,3135],{},"此外，过去 40 年来，伯克希尔没有把一分钱用于分红或股票回购。相反，我们保留了",[745,3134,757],{},"收益来增强业务实力——现在月均增加约 10 亿美元。在这 40 年间，我们的净资产从 4,800 万美元增长到了 1,570 亿美元，内在价值的增长更是远超于此。没有任何其他美国公司能以这种坚持不懈的方式积累起如此雄厚的财务实力。",[14,3137,3138],{},"如此谨慎地对待杠杆，我们的回报确实受到了些许影响。但拥有充裕的流动性让我们高枕无忧。而且，当经济中偶尔爆发金融混乱时，别人还在为求生而挣扎，我们却有充足的资金和从容的心态去主动出击。正是这一点让我们能在 2008 年雷曼兄弟破产后 25 天的恐慌之中投出 156 亿美元。",[720,3140,3141],{"id":3141},"年度股东大会",[14,3143,3144],{},"年度股东大会将于 4 月 30 日周六举行。来自总部的嘉莉·凯泽（Carrie Kizer）将担任主持，她今年的主题是”飞机、火车和汽车”。这给了利捷航空、BNSF 铁路和比亚迪（BYD）一个展示的机会。",[14,3146,3147,3148,3151],{},"和往常一样，Qwest 中心的大门会在早上 7 点开放，8 点半放映一部新的伯克希尔影片。9 点半我们将直接进入问答环节，持续到下午 3 点半（中间在 Qwest 中心的餐饮柜台吃午饭）。短暂休息后，查理和我将在 3 点 45 分主持股东正式大会。如果你决定在一天的问答环节中途离场，请在",[745,3149,3150],{},"查理","讲话的时候走。（动作要快，他说话可简短了。）",[14,3153,3154,3155,3158],{},"离场最好的理由当然是去",[745,3156,3157],{},"购物","。我们会在与会场相邻的 194,300 平方英尺的大厅里摆满来自几十家伯克希尔子公司的产品。去年你们大力捧场，大多数摊位都创下了销售纪录。在九个小时内，我们卖出了 1,053 双贾斯汀（Justin）牛仔靴、12,416 磅喜诗糖果、8,000 个 DQ 暴风雪冰淇淋和 8,800 把 Quikut 刀具（相当于每分钟卖 16 把刀）。但你们可以做得更好。记住：谁要是说金钱买不到幸福，那只是因为还没学会该去哪儿购物。",[14,3160,3161],{},"GEICO 将设置展位，配备来自全国各地的顶级顾问，随时为你提供汽车保险报价。大多数情况下，GEICO 能给你股东折扣（通常 8%）。我们开展业务的 51 个司法管辖区中有 44 个允许这项特别优惠。（补充一点：如果你已经符合其他折扣条件，比如某些团体折扣，股东折扣不能叠加。）带上你现有保险的详细资料，看看我们能否帮你省钱。我相信至少你们中的一半人可以省下一笔。",[14,3163,3164],{},"一定要去逛逛”书虫”书店。那里有 60 多种书和 DVD，包括中文版的《穷查理宝典》——关于我合伙人的那本长盛不衰的好书。你不认识中文又怎样？买一本带在身边，它会让你看起来文雅博学。如果你需要邮寄购买的书籍，旁边就有快递服务。",[14,3166,3167],{},"如果你是大买家——或者只是来开开眼界——周六中午到下午 5 点可以去奥马哈机场东侧的埃利奥特航空（Elliott Aviation）。利捷航空的飞机机队会让你心跳加速。坐大巴来，乘私人飞机走。",[14,3169,3170],{},"随本报告附寄的委托书材料中的附件说明了如何获取参加股东大会和其他活动所需的入场凭证。至于机票、酒店和租车预订，我们再次委托美国运通（800-799-6634）为你们提供专门服务。卡罗尔·彼得森（Carol Pedersen）负责这些事务，她每年都做得非常出色，我在此感谢她。酒店房间可能很难订，但找卡罗尔帮忙就能搞定。",[14,3172,3173],{},"航空公司经常在伯克希尔周末期间提高票价——有时还涨得很离谱。如果你从远方而来，比较一下飞堪萨斯城和飞奥马哈的费用。开车大约 2.5 小时，你可能会省下不少钱，尤其是如果你本来就打算在奥马哈租车的话。",[14,3175,3176,3177,3179],{},"在内布拉斯加家具店（Nebraska Furniture Mart）——位于 72 街道奇（Dodge）和太平洋（Pacific）之间、占地 77 英亩的卖场——我们将再次推出”伯克希尔周末”特价。去年家具店在年会特卖期间做了 3,330 万美元的生意——据我所知，这超过了",[745,3178,800],{},"零售店在任何地方一周的销售总额。要享受伯克希尔折扣，你需要在 4 月 26 日周二至 5 月 2 日周一（含）期间购买，并出示你的参会凭证。这段时间的特价甚至适用于几个通常有铁律禁止打折的名牌产品——它们为了我们的股东周末破了例。我们感谢它们的支持。内布拉斯加家具店周一至周六上午 10 点至晚上 9 点营业，周日上午 10 点至下午 6 点。今年周六下午 5 点半至 8 点，家具店将举办野餐活动，欢迎所有人参加。",[14,3181,3182],{},"在波仙珠宝（Borsheims），我们将再次举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是 4 月 29 日周五下午 6 点至 9 点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场是主要的盛大售卖活动，5 月 1 日周日上午 9 点至下午 4 点。周六我们营业到下午 6 点。周日下午 1 点左右，我会出现在波仙珠宝，面带微笑、锃亮皮鞋，像 63 年前在杰西潘尼（J.C. Penney’s）卖男式衬衫那样卖珠宝。我已经告诉波仙珠宝的 CEO 苏珊·雅克斯（Susan Jacques），我仍然是一个炙手可热的推销员。但我从她眼神里看到了怀疑。所以放开手脚，从我这儿买点什么送给你的妻子或心上人（想必是同一个人）。给我点面子吧。",[14,3184,3185],{},"整个周末波仙珠宝都会人潮涌动。为方便起见，股东价将从 4 月 25 日周一持续到 5 月 7 日周六。在此期间，请出示参会凭证或证明你持有伯克希尔股份的券商对账单来表明身份。",[14,3187,3188],{},"周日，在波仙珠宝门外的广场上，两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫（Patrick Wolff）将蒙上双眼，以一对六同时迎战所有挑战者——而挑战者们的眼睛可是睁得大大的。旁边，来自达拉斯的出色魔术师诺曼·贝克（Norman Beck）将让围观者目瞪口呆。此外，周日下午我们还邀请了世界顶尖的桥牌高手鲍勃·哈曼（Bob Hamman）和莎伦·奥斯伯格（Sharon Osberg）与股东们一起打桥牌。",[14,3190,3191,3192,3195],{},"Gorat’s 和 Piccolo’s 两家餐厅将在 5 月 1 日周日再次为伯克希尔股东专门开放，营业到晚上 10 点。Gorat’s 下午 1 点开门，Piccolo’s 下午 4 点开门。这两家是我最爱的餐厅，而且——作为一个还在长个儿的男孩——周日晚上我两家都会去吃。记住：要在 Gorat’s 订位，请在 4 月 1 日拨打 402-551-3733（",[745,3193,3194],{},"不要提前","）；Piccolo’s 的电话是 402-342-9038。",[14,3197,3198,3199,3203,3204,3208,3209,3213],{},"我们将继续由三位财经记者主持问答环节，他们会向查理和我提出股东通过电子邮件提交的问题。这三位记者及其邮箱是：《财富》杂志的卡罗尔·卢米斯（Carol Loomis），",[1673,3200,3202],{"href":3201},"mailto:cloomis@fortunemail.com","cloomis@fortunemail.com","；CNBC 的贝基·奎克（Becky Quick），",[1673,3205,3207],{"href":3206},"mailto:BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","；《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金（Andrew Ross Sorkin），",[1673,3210,3212],{"href":3211},"mailto:arsorkin@nytimes.com","arsorkin@nytimes.com","。",[14,3215,3216],{},"每位记者将从提交的问题中挑选十几个他认为最有趣、最重要的。他们告诉我，如果你的问题简洁明了、不要拖到最后一刻才发、与伯克希尔相关、每封邮件不超过两个问题，那么被选中的机会最大。（请在邮件中注明，如果你的问题被选中，是否愿意公开你的名字。）",[14,3218,3219],{},"查理和我不会提前获得任何关于将要提问的线索。我们知道记者们会挑一些刁钻的问题——我们就喜欢这样。",[14,3221,3222,3223,3226],{},"周六上午 8 点 15 分，我们会在 13 个麦克风位置为希望亲自提问的股东进行抽签。会议上，我将交替回答记者提出的问题和抽中的股东问题。我们希望至少回答 60 个问题。对我们来说，越多越好。通过这些年度信函和大会讨论，我们的目标是让你们更好地了解",[745,3224,3225],{},"你","所拥有的企业。",[1582,3228],{},[14,3230,3231],{},"出于充分的理由，我经常赞扬我们运营经理人取得的成就。然而同样重要的是在总部跟我一起工作的 20 位男女同事（全部在同一个楼层——我们有意保持这一点！）。",[14,3233,3234],{},"这个团队高效地处理大量 SEC 及其他监管要求，整理多达 14,097 页的联邦所得税申报表以及各州和海外税表，回复无数的股东和媒体咨询，编制年度报告，筹备全美最大的年度股东大会，协调董事会活动——还有很多很多。",[14,3236,3237],{},"他们以令人难以置信的效率和愉快的态度处理所有这些事务，让我的日子轻松而快乐。他们的工作远不止与伯克希尔业务直接相关的事项：他们要跟 48 所大学（从 200 所申请者中选出）打交道，安排这些大学本学年选送学生来奥马哈跟我共度一天；他们还要处理我收到的各种各样的请求、安排我的差旅、甚至帮我买午餐的汉堡包。没有哪位 CEO 比我更有福气了。",[14,3239,3240],{},"我衷心感谢这支总部团队，他们也值得你们的感谢。4 月 30 日来参加我们的”资本家的伍德斯托克音乐节”，当面告诉他们吧。",[14,3242,3243],{},"沃伦·E·巴菲特",[14,3245,3246],{},"董事长",[14,3248,3249],{},"2011 年 2 月 26 日",[720,3251,3252],{"id":3252},"致经理人备忘录",[14,3254,3255,3258],{},[17,3256,3257],{},"收件人："," 伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下经理人（“全明星”团队）",[14,3260,3261,3264],{},[17,3262,3263],{},"抄送："," 伯克希尔董事会",[14,3266,3267,3270],{},[17,3268,3269],{},"发件人："," 沃伦·E·巴菲特",[14,3272,3273,3276],{},[17,3274,3275],{},"日期："," 2010 年 7 月 26 日",[14,3278,3279],{},"这是我每两年写一次的信，再次强调伯克希尔的首要原则，并请各位在继任规划方面给予帮助（是你们的继任，不是我的！）。",[14,3281,3282,3283,3286],{},"当务之急是，我们所有人都要继续不遗余力地维护伯克希尔的声誉。我们做不到完美，但我们可以尽力而为。正如我 25 年多来在这些备忘录中反复说的：“我们可以承受亏损——甚至是巨额亏损。但我们不能失去声誉——哪怕是一丝一毫的声誉。”我们",[745,3284,3285],{},"必须","以更高的标准衡量每一个行为：不仅要看它是否合法，还要看它是否经得起一位不友好但聪明的记者在全国性报纸头版上的审视。",[14,3288,3289,3290,3293],{},"有时你的同事会说”别人都在这么做”。如果这是一项商业行为的主要理由，那几乎总是一个糟糕的理由。在评估道德决策时，它更是完全不可接受的。每当有人抛出这句话当理由，他们实际上是在说自己想不出一个",[745,3291,3292],{},"好","理由。如果有人给出这样的解释，告诉他们去试试在记者或法官面前用这套说辞，看看能走多远。",[14,3295,3296],{},"如果你看到什么事情的合理性或合法性让你犹豫不决，请务必给我打个电话。不过话说回来，如果某个行动引发了这种犹豫，那它很可能已经太接近底线了，应该放弃。球场中央有的是钱可赚。如果某个行动是否接近底线存在疑问，就直接当它在底线之外，然后忘掉它。",[14,3298,3299],{},"同理，如果有任何重大坏消息，请立即告诉我。我能处理坏消息，但我不喜欢在它发酵了一阵子之后再来处理。正是因为不愿立即面对坏消息，所罗门公司（Salomon）的一个原本很容易化解的问题，才演变成了几乎让一家拥有 8,000 名员工的公司倒闭的大祸。",[14,3301,3302],{},"今天在伯克希尔，肯定有人在做一些如果你我知道了会不高兴的事。这是不可避免的：我们现在有 25 万多名员工，这么多人一天之中不发生任何不良行为的可能性为零。但是，只要一发现哪怕最轻微的不妥苗头就立即跳出来处理，我们就能极大地减少此类行为。你在这些问题上的态度——通过言行来传达的——将是你的企业文化如何发展的最重要因素。文化比规章制度更能决定一个组织的行为方式。",[14,3304,3305],{},"在其他方面，想跟我聊什么、聊多少，完全随你。你们每个人都用自己独特的风格把业务经营得一流，不需要我来帮忙。你们唯一需要我批准的事项是：退休后福利的任何变更，以及任何异常巨大的资本支出或收购。",[1582,3307],{},[14,3309,3310],{},"在继任问题上，我需要你们帮忙。我不是要你们中任何一位退休，我希望你们都能活到 100 岁。（查理的话，110 岁。）但以防万一，请给我写一封信（如果你愿意可以寄到家里），推荐如果你一夜之间丧失工作能力，明天应该由谁来接替。这些信除了我之外谁也不会看到，除非我不再担任 CEO——届时我的继任者会需要这些信息。请总结你的首选候选人以及任何你想列入的替补人选的优势和不足。你们大多数人过去都做过这件事，其他人也口头表达过意见。不过，定期更新对我来说很重要。现在我们增加了这么多业务，我需要你们把想法写下来，而不是试图记在我的脑袋里。当然，有一些业务是由你们两个或更多人共同经营的——比如布鲁姆金家族（Blumkins）、默施曼夫妇（Merschmans）、应用承保人公司（Applied Underwriters）的两位搭档等等——在这些情况下就不用管这一条了。你的便条可以简短、非正式、手写等等。只要注明”沃伦亲启”就行。",[14,3312,3313],{},"感谢你们在所有这些方面的帮助。也感谢你们经营企业的方式。你们让我的工作变得轻松。",[14,3315,3316],{},"WEB\u002Fdb",[14,3318,3319],{},"附：再有一个小小的请求。请拒绝所有让我去演讲、捐款、与盖茨基金会牵线搭桥等等的提议。有时这些请你充当中间人的要求会附带一句”问问也无妨”。如果你直接说”不”，我们双方都会轻松很多。额外帮个忙：别建议他们改写信或打电话给我。76 项业务乘以周期性的”我觉得他会对这个感兴趣”——你就明白为什么最好干脆利落地立即说”不”了。",[720,3321,3323],{"id":3322},"欧内斯特-1939-年的一封信","欧内斯特 1939 年的一封信",[14,3325,3326],{},"亲爱的弗雷德和凯瑟琳：",[14,3328,3329],{},"在很多年的时间里，我认识了许许多多的人，他们或多或少都曾因为手头没有现成的现金而遭受过各种各样的困苦。我认识一些人，他们不得不牺牲掉部分财产来换取当时急需的资金。",[14,3331,3332],{},"多年来，你祖父一直把一笔钱放在可以很快拿到手的地方。",[14,3334,3335],{},"多年来，我也一直坚持保留一笔备用金，以防万一急需用钱时，不必动用生意上的资金。有几次我发现动用这笔钱非常方便。",[14,3337,3338],{},"因此，我觉得每个人都应该有一笔应急储备。我希望这种事永远不会发生在你身上，但很有可能有一天你会需要钱，而且非常急需。基于这个想法，在你结婚的时候，我在一个写着你名字的信封里放了 200 美元，成立了一个基金。每年我都往里添一点，如今基金里已经有了 1,000 美元。",[14,3340,3341],{},"你们结婚已经十年了，这笔基金现在算是完成了。",[14,3343,3344],{},"我希望你把这个信封放在你银行的保险箱里，为它设立的目的保存好。如果有一天你需要用到其中一部分，我建议你尽量少用，并尽快补上。",[14,3346,3347],{},"你可能觉得这笔钱应该拿去投资，让它带来收入。别这样想——把 1,000 美元放在一个你随时能拿到手的地方，这种精神上的安心感远比它可能带来的利息更有价值，尤其是如果你投资的东西不能很快变现的话。",{"title":3349,"searchDepth":3350,"depth":3350,"links":3351},"",2,[3352,3354,3355,3356,3357,3358,3359,3360,3361,3362,3363,3364,3365,3366,3367],{"id":722,"depth":3353,"text":723},3,{"id":778,"depth":3353,"text":778},{"id":1390,"depth":3353,"text":1391},{"id":1643,"depth":3353,"text":1643},{"id":1715,"depth":3353,"text":1715},{"id":1938,"depth":3353,"text":1939},{"id":2252,"depth":3353,"text":2252},{"id":2517,"depth":3353,"text":2517},{"id":2606,"depth":3353,"text":2606},{"id":2973,"depth":3353,"text":2973},{"id":3012,"depth":3353,"text":3013},{"id":3090,"depth":3353,"text":3090},{"id":3141,"depth":3353,"text":3141},{"id":3252,"depth":3353,"text":3252},{"id":3322,"depth":3353,"text":3323},"致股东信",null,"2010年巴菲特致股东信，讨论经济复苏、并购交易、股票投资组合表现及美国经济前景","md",{},true,81,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":3370},"2010 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","LXsDvA-sidyGthgat0gqkgu5tUWSVKyVlSVDHizWOwI","buffett",[3383,3388,3392,3396,3399,3402,3405,3408,3411,3414,3418,3421,3424,3428,3431,3434,3438,3441,3444,3448,3451,3454,3458,3461,3464,3468,3471,3474,3478,3481,3484,3488,3491,3494,3498,3501,3504,3508,3511,3514,3518,3521,3524,3528,3531,3534,3538,3541,3544,3548,3551,3554,3558,3561,3564,3568,3571,3574,3578,3581,3584,3588,3591,3594,3598,3601,3604,3608,3611,3614,3618,3621,3624,3628,3631,3634,3638,3641,3644,3648,3651,3654,3658,3661,3664,3668,3671,3674,3678,3681,3684,3688,3691,3694,3698,3701,3704,3708,3711,3714,3718,3721,3725,3728,3732,3735,3739,3742,3746,3749,3753,3756,3760,3763,3767,3770,3774,3777,3781,3784,3788,3791,3795,3798,3802,3805,3809,3812,3816,3819,3823,3826,3830,3833,3837,3840,3844,3847,3851,3854,3858,3861,3865,3868,3872,3875,3879,3882,3886,3889,3893,3896,3900,3903,3907,3910,3914,3917,3921,3924,3928,3931,3935,3938,3942,3945,3949,3952,3956,3959,3963,3966,3970,3973,3977,3980,3984,3987,3991,3994,3998,4001,4005,4008,4012,4015,4019,4022,4026,4029,4033,4036,4040,4043,4044,4047,4051,4054,4058,4061,4065,4068,4072,4075,4079,4082,4086,4089,4093,4096,4100,4103,4107,4110,4114,4117,4121,4124,4128,4131,4135,4138,4142,4145,4149,4152,4156,4159,4163,4166,4170,4173,4177,4180,4184,4188,4192,4196,4200,4204,4208,4212,4216,4220,4224,4228,4232,4236,4240,4244,4248,4252,4256,4260,4264,4268,4272,4276,4280,4284,4288,4292,4296,4300,4304,4308,4312,4316,4320,4324,4328,4332,4336,4340,4344,4348,4352,4356,4360,4364,4368,4372,4376,4380],{"title":3384,"slug":3385,"category":3386,"order":3387},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":3389,"slug":3390,"category":3391,"order":3387},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":3393,"slug":3394,"category":3395,"order":3387},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":3397,"slug":3398,"category":3386,"order":3350},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":3400,"slug":3401,"category":3391,"order":3350},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":3403,"slug":3404,"category":3395,"order":3350},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3406,"slug":3407,"category":3386,"order":3353},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":3409,"slug":3410,"category":3391,"order":3353},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":3412,"slug":3413,"category":3395,"order":3353},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3415,"slug":3416,"category":3386,"order":3417},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":3419,"slug":3420,"category":3391,"order":3417},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":3422,"slug":3423,"category":3395,"order":3417},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3425,"slug":3426,"category":3386,"order":3427},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":3429,"slug":3430,"category":3391,"order":3427},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":3432,"slug":3433,"category":3395,"order":3427},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3435,"slug":3436,"category":3386,"order":3437},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":3439,"slug":3440,"category":3391,"order":3437},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":3442,"slug":3443,"category":3395,"order":3437},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3445,"slug":3446,"category":3386,"order":3447},"1961年中 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巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":3761,"slug":3762,"category":3391,"order":3759},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":3764,"slug":3765,"category":3386,"order":3766},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":3768,"slug":3769,"category":3391,"order":3766},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":3771,"slug":3772,"category":3368,"order":3773},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":3775,"slug":3776,"category":3391,"order":3773},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":3778,"slug":3779,"category":3368,"order":3780},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":3782,"slug":3783,"category":3391,"order":3780},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":3785,"slug":3786,"category":3368,"order":3787},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":3789,"slug":3790,"category":3391,"order":3787},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":3792,"slug":3793,"category":3368,"order":3794},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":3796,"slug":3797,"category":3391,"order":3794},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3799,"slug":3800,"category":3368,"order":3801},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":3803,"slug":3804,"category":3391,"order":3801},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3806,"slug":3807,"category":3368,"order":3808},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":3810,"slug":3811,"category":3391,"order":3808},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":3813,"slug":3814,"category":3368,"order":3815},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":3817,"slug":3818,"category":3391,"order":3815},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":3820,"slug":3821,"category":3368,"order":3822},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":3824,"slug":3825,"category":3391,"order":3822},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":3827,"slug":3828,"category":3368,"order":3829},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":3831,"slug":3832,"category":3391,"order":3829},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":3834,"slug":3835,"category":3368,"order":3836},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":3838,"slug":3839,"category":3391,"order":3836},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":3841,"slug":3842,"category":3368,"order":3843},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":3845,"slug":3846,"category":3391,"order":3843},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":3848,"slug":3849,"category":3368,"order":3850},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":3852,"slug":3853,"category":3391,"order":3850},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3855,"slug":3856,"category":3368,"order":3857},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":3859,"slug":3860,"category":3391,"order":3857},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":3862,"slug":3863,"category":3368,"order":3864},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":3866,"slug":3867,"category":3391,"order":3864},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":3869,"slug":3870,"category":3368,"order":3871},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":3873,"slug":3874,"category":3391,"order":3871},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":3876,"slug":3877,"category":3368,"order":3878},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":3880,"slug":3881,"category":3391,"order":3878},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":3883,"slug":3884,"category":3368,"order":3885},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":3887,"slug":3888,"category":3391,"order":3885},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3890,"slug":3891,"category":3368,"order":3892},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":3894,"slug":3895,"category":3391,"order":3892},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3897,"slug":3898,"category":3368,"order":3899},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":3901,"slug":3902,"category":3391,"order":3899},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3904,"slug":3905,"category":3368,"order":3906},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":3908,"slug":3909,"category":3391,"order":3906},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":3911,"slug":3912,"category":3368,"order":3913},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":3915,"slug":3916,"category":3391,"order":3913},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":3918,"slug":3919,"category":3368,"order":3920},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":3922,"slug":3923,"category":3391,"order":3920},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":3925,"slug":3926,"category":3368,"order":3927},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":3929,"slug":3930,"category":3391,"order":3927},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":3932,"slug":3933,"category":3368,"order":3934},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":3936,"slug":3937,"category":3391,"order":3934},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3939,"slug":3940,"category":3368,"order":3941},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":3943,"slug":3944,"category":3391,"order":3941},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":3946,"slug":3947,"category":3368,"order":3948},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":3950,"slug":3951,"category":3391,"order":3948},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3953,"slug":3954,"category":3368,"order":3955},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":3957,"slug":3958,"category":3391,"order":3955},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":3960,"slug":3961,"category":3368,"order":3962},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":3964,"slug":3965,"category":3391,"order":3962},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":3967,"slug":3968,"category":3368,"order":3969},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":3971,"slug":3972,"category":3391,"order":3969},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":3974,"slug":3975,"category":3368,"order":3976},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":3978,"slug":3979,"category":3391,"order":3976},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3981,"slug":3982,"category":3368,"order":3983},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":3985,"slug":3986,"category":3391,"order":3983},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":3988,"slug":3989,"category":3368,"order":3990},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":3992,"slug":3993,"category":3391,"order":3990},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":3995,"slug":3996,"category":3368,"order":3997},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":3999,"slug":4000,"category":3391,"order":3997},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":4002,"slug":4003,"category":3368,"order":4004},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":4006,"slug":4007,"category":3391,"order":4004},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":4009,"slug":4010,"category":3368,"order":4011},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":4013,"slug":4014,"category":3391,"order":4011},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":4016,"slug":4017,"category":3368,"order":4018},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":4020,"slug":4021,"category":3391,"order":4018},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":4023,"slug":4024,"category":3368,"order":4025},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":4027,"slug":4028,"category":3391,"order":4025},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":4030,"slug":4031,"category":3368,"order":4032},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":4034,"slug":4035,"category":3391,"order":4032},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":4037,"slug":4038,"category":3368,"order":4039},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":4041,"slug":4042,"category":3391,"order":4039},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":5,"slug":3378,"category":3368,"order":3374},{"title":4045,"slug":4046,"category":3391,"order":3374},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":4048,"slug":4049,"category":3368,"order":4050},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":4052,"slug":4053,"category":3391,"order":4050},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":4055,"slug":4056,"category":3368,"order":4057},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":4059,"slug":4060,"category":3391,"order":4057},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":4062,"slug":4063,"category":3368,"order":4064},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":4066,"slug":4067,"category":3391,"order":4064},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":4069,"slug":4070,"category":3368,"order":4071},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":4073,"slug":4074,"category":3391,"order":4071},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":4076,"slug":4077,"category":3368,"order":4078},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":4080,"slug":4081,"category":3391,"order":4078},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":4083,"slug":4084,"category":3368,"order":4085},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":4087,"slug":4088,"category":3391,"order":4085},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":4090,"slug":4091,"category":3368,"order":4092},"2015 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