[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3969},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":2433,"library-sidebar-dao":3435,"library-sidebar-models":3737},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":2419,"date":2420,"description":2421,"extension":2422,"meta":2423,"navigation":2424,"order":2425,"path":2426,"seo":2427,"seoDescription":2421,"seoTitle":2428,"slug":2429,"stem":2430,"__hash__":2431,"_collection":2432},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2008 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":2403},"minimark",[9,13,20,671,677,680,691,696,701,709,712,715,718,721,724,727,734,737,740,743,746,749,752,755,758,765,768,771,774,777,780,783,786,789,792,795,798,801,804,807,810,813,816,997,1004,1007,1010,1013,1016,1019,1022,1025,1028,1031,1034,1037,1040,1051,1058,1061,1064,1067,1070,1073,1076,1079,1086,1089,1092,1095,1098,1105,1108,1111,1118,1121,1128,1235,1239,1242,1247,1385,1390,1491,1496,1503,1506,1509,1512,1515,1518,1521,1524,1527,1530,1533,1540,1543,1550,1557,1560,1567,1570,1573,1580,1582,1585,1588,1595,1598,1681,1686,1689,1692,1695,1698,1701,1708,1719,1726,1733,1739,1742,1749,1756,1759,1766,1769,1772,1774,1777,1780,1783,1785,1788,1791,1794,1799,2088,2093,2096,2099,2102,2105,2112,2115,2118,2121,2124,2127,2130,2133,2140,2143,2150,2153,2156,2163,2174,2181,2188,2191,2199,2202,2207,2210,2213,2216,2219,2224,2227,2230,2235,2238,2241,2246,2249,2252,2254,2257,2260,2263,2266,2273,2276,2279,2282,2285,2288,2291,2298,2305,2315,2318,2321,2324,2327,2330,2333,2336,2339,2342,2345,2352,2355,2357,2360,2363,2382,2385,2388,2391,2394,2397,2400],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2008-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[21,22,23,42],"table",{},[24,25,26],"thead",{},[27,28,29,33,36,39],"tr",{},[30,31,32],"th",{},"年份",[30,34,35],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比 (1)",[30,37,38],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比 (2)",[30,40,41],{},"相对表现 (1)-(2)",[43,44,45,60,74,88,101,115,129,143,157,171,185,199,213,226,240,253,267,281,295,308,322,336,348,361,374,388,402,416,428,442,456,469,483,497,511,525,539,553,566,579,592,605,619,630,644,658],"tbody",{},[27,46,47,51,54,57],{},[48,49,50],"td",{},"1965",[48,52,53],{},"23.8",[48,55,56],{},"10.0",[48,58,59],{},"13.8",[27,61,62,65,68,71],{},[48,63,64],{},"1966",[48,66,67],{},"20.3",[48,69,70],{},"(11.7)",[48,72,73],{},"32.0",[27,75,76,79,82,85],{},[48,77,78],{},"1967",[48,80,81],{},"11.0",[48,83,84],{},"30.9",[48,86,87],{},"(19.9)",[27,89,90,93,96,98],{},[48,91,92],{},"1968",[48,94,95],{},"19.0",[48,97,81],{},[48,99,100],{},"8.0",[27,102,103,106,109,112],{},[48,104,105],{},"1969",[48,107,108],{},"16.2",[48,110,111],{},"(8.4)",[48,113,114],{},"24.6",[27,116,117,120,123,126],{},[48,118,119],{},"1970",[48,121,122],{},"12.0",[48,124,125],{},"3.9",[48,127,128],{},"8.1",[27,130,131,134,137,140],{},[48,132,133],{},"1971",[48,135,136],{},"16.4",[48,138,139],{},"14.6",[48,141,142],{},"1.8",[27,144,145,148,151,154],{},[48,146,147],{},"1972",[48,149,150],{},"21.7",[48,152,153],{},"18.9",[48,155,156],{},"2.8",[27,158,159,162,165,168],{},[48,160,161],{},"1973",[48,163,164],{},"4.7",[48,166,167],{},"(14.8)",[48,169,170],{},"19.5",[27,172,173,176,179,182],{},[48,174,175],{},"1974",[48,177,178],{},"5.5",[48,180,181],{},"(26.4)",[48,183,184],{},"31.9",[27,186,187,190,193,196],{},[48,188,189],{},"1975",[48,191,192],{},"21.9",[48,194,195],{},"37.2",[48,197,198],{},"(15.3)",[27,200,201,204,207,210],{},[48,202,203],{},"1976",[48,205,206],{},"59.3",[48,208,209],{},"23.6",[48,211,212],{},"35.7",[27,214,215,218,220,223],{},[48,216,217],{},"1977",[48,219,184],{},[48,221,222],{},"(7.4)",[48,224,225],{},"39.3",[27,227,228,231,234,237],{},[48,229,230],{},"1978",[48,232,233],{},"24.0",[48,235,236],{},"6.4",[48,238,239],{},"17.6",[27,241,242,245,247,250],{},[48,243,244],{},"1979",[48,246,212],{},[48,248,249],{},"18.2",[48,251,252],{},"17.5",[27,254,255,258,261,264],{},[48,256,257],{},"1980",[48,259,260],{},"19.3",[48,262,263],{},"32.3",[48,265,266],{},"(13.0)",[27,268,269,272,275,278],{},[48,270,271],{},"1981",[48,273,274],{},"31.4",[48,276,277],{},"(5.0)",[48,279,280],{},"36.4",[27,282,283,286,289,292],{},[48,284,285],{},"1982",[48,287,288],{},"40.0",[48,290,291],{},"21.4",[48,293,294],{},"18.6",[27,296,297,300,302,305],{},[48,298,299],{},"1983",[48,301,263],{},[48,303,304],{},"22.4",[48,306,307],{},"9.9",[27,309,310,313,316,319],{},[48,311,312],{},"1984",[48,314,315],{},"13.6",[48,317,318],{},"6.1",[48,320,321],{},"7.5",[27,323,324,327,330,333],{},[48,325,326],{},"1985",[48,328,329],{},"48.2",[48,331,332],{},"31.6",[48,334,335],{},"16.6",[27,337,338,341,344,346],{},[48,339,340],{},"1986",[48,342,343],{},"26.1",[48,345,294],{},[48,347,321],{},[27,349,350,353,355,358],{},[48,351,352],{},"1987",[48,354,170],{},[48,356,357],{},"5.1",[48,359,360],{},"14.4",[27,362,363,366,369,371],{},[48,364,365],{},"1988",[48,367,368],{},"20.1",[48,370,335],{},[48,372,373],{},"3.5",[27,375,376,379,382,385],{},[48,377,378],{},"1989",[48,380,381],{},"44.4",[48,383,384],{},"31.7",[48,386,387],{},"12.7",[27,389,390,393,396,399],{},[48,391,392],{},"1990",[48,394,395],{},"7.4",[48,397,398],{},"(3.1)",[48,400,401],{},"10.5",[27,403,404,407,410,413],{},[48,405,406],{},"1991",[48,408,409],{},"39.6",[48,411,412],{},"30.5",[48,414,415],{},"9.1",[27,417,418,421,423,426],{},[48,419,420],{},"1992",[48,422,67],{},[48,424,425],{},"7.6",[48,427,387],{},[27,429,430,433,436,439],{},[48,431,432],{},"1993",[48,434,435],{},"14.3",[48,437,438],{},"10.1",[48,440,441],{},"4.2",[27,443,444,447,450,453],{},[48,445,446],{},"1994",[48,448,449],{},"13.9",[48,451,452],{},"1.3",[48,454,455],{},"12.6",[27,457,458,461,464,467],{},[48,459,460],{},"1995",[48,462,463],{},"43.1",[48,465,466],{},"37.6",[48,468,178],{},[27,470,471,474,477,480],{},[48,472,473],{},"1996",[48,475,476],{},"31.8",[48,478,479],{},"23.0",[48,481,482],{},"8.8",[27,484,485,488,491,494],{},[48,486,487],{},"1997",[48,489,490],{},"34.1",[48,492,493],{},"33.4",[48,495,496],{},".7",[27,498,499,502,505,508],{},[48,500,501],{},"1998",[48,503,504],{},"48.3",[48,506,507],{},"28.6",[48,509,510],{},"19.7",[27,512,513,516,519,522],{},[48,514,515],{},"1999",[48,517,518],{},".5",[48,520,521],{},"21.0",[48,523,524],{},"(20.5)",[27,526,527,530,533,536],{},[48,528,529],{},"2000",[48,531,532],{},"6.5",[48,534,535],{},"(9.1)",[48,537,538],{},"15.6",[27,540,541,544,547,550],{},[48,542,543],{},"2001",[48,545,546],{},"(6.2)",[48,548,549],{},"(11.9)",[48,551,552],{},"5.7",[27,554,555,558,560,563],{},[48,556,557],{},"2002",[48,559,56],{},[48,561,562],{},"(22.1)",[48,564,565],{},"32.1",[27,567,568,571,573,576],{},[48,569,570],{},"2003",[48,572,521],{},[48,574,575],{},"28.7",[48,577,578],{},"(7.7)",[27,580,581,584,586,589],{},[48,582,583],{},"2004",[48,585,401],{},[48,587,588],{},"10.9",[48,590,591],{},"(.4)",[27,593,594,597,599,602],{},[48,595,596],{},"2005",[48,598,236],{},[48,600,601],{},"4.9",[48,603,604],{},"1.5",[27,606,607,610,613,616],{},[48,608,609],{},"2006",[48,611,612],{},"18.4",[48,614,615],{},"15.8",[48,617,618],{},"2.6",[27,620,621,624,626,628],{},[48,622,623],{},"2007",[48,625,81],{},[48,627,178],{},[48,629,178],{},[27,631,632,635,638,641],{},[48,633,634],{},"2008",[48,636,637],{},"(9.6)",[48,639,640],{},"(37.0)",[48,642,643],{},"27.4",[27,645,646,649,652,655],{},[48,647,648],{},"年复合增长率 – 1965-2008",[48,650,651],{},"20.3%",[48,653,654],{},"8.9%",[48,656,657],{},"11.4",[27,659,660,663,666,669],{},[48,661,662],{},"累计总收益 – 1964-2008",[48,664,665],{},"362,319%",[48,667,668],{},"4,276%",[48,670],{},[14,672,673,676],{},[17,674,675],{},"注释："," 数据为日历年度数据，以下例外：1965年和1966年为截至9月30日的年度；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。",[14,678,679],{},"自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市价而非此前的成本与市价孰低法计量权益类证券。本表中，伯克希尔1978年及以前的数据已按新规则进行了追溯调整。其他方面的数据均采用当初的原始报告数字。",[14,681,682,683,686,687,690],{},"标普500指数的数字为",[17,684,685],{},"税前","数据，而伯克希尔的数字为",[17,688,689],{},"税后","数据。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司仅仅持有标普500指数并计提相应税金，在指数上涨的年份其表现将落后于标普500，而在指数下跌的年份则会优于标普500。长期来看，税收成本会使累计差距相当显著。",[692,693,695],"h3",{"id":694},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,697,698],{},[17,699,700],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) 所有股东：",[14,702,703,704,708],{},"2008年，公司净资产",[705,706,707],"em",{},"减少","了115亿美元，A股和B股的每股账面价值下降了9.6%。自现任管理层接手的44年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元增长到目前的70,530美元，年复合增长率约为20.3%。(*)",[14,710,711],{},"上表记录了伯克希尔账面价值和标普500指数过去44年的表现，可以看到2008年对两者都是表现最差的年份。这一时期对于企业债券和市政债券、房地产和大宗商品来说同样是灾难性的。截至年底，各种类型的投资者晕头转向且伤痕累累，仿佛一群误入羽毛球赛场的小鸟。",[14,713,714],{},"这一年中，世界上许多大型金融机构的致命问题接连暴露。这使得原本功能紊乱的信贷市场在许多关键领域彻底停摆。我年幼时在一家餐馆墙壁上看到的标语，成为当下全国上下的座右铭：“我们只相信上帝，其余人请付现金。”",[14,716,717],{},"到了第四季度，信贷危机加上房价和股市的暴跌，制造出一种令人瘫痪的恐惧，席卷了整个国家。随之而来的是商业活动的自由落体，而且加速之快，我前所未见。美国——以及世界大部分地区——都陷入了恶性的负反馈循环。恐惧导致商业萎缩，商业萎缩又引发了更大的恐惧。",[14,719,720],{},"这种令人窒息的螺旋式下坠迫使政府采取大规模行动。用扑克牌局的术语说，财政部和美联储已经全押 ALL IN。此前经济药方都是论杯开的，最近则是论桶灌。这些曾经不可想象的剂量几乎必然带来不良的后遗症。其确切后果谁也说不准，不过一个很可能的后果就是通货膨胀来势汹汹。此外，多个主要行业已经依赖上了联邦援助，紧随其后的是各市各州提出的各种天文数字般的请求。让这些机构从公共财政的乳头上断奶，将会是一场政治角力。他们才不会自愿松嘴。",[14,722,723],{},"不管负面后果有多大，去年政府采取强有力的紧急行动是完全必要的，否则金融系统将面临全面崩溃。一旦发生，经济的各个领域都将遭受灾难性的后果。不管你喜不喜欢，华尔街、主街和美国各条街上的居民，现在都在同一条船上。",[14,725,726],{},"尽管坏消息不断，但千万不要忘记，我们的国家过去曾经面对过比这更严峻的考验。仅在20世纪，我们就经历了两场大战（其中有一次我们一度看起来要输掉了）；十多次恐慌和衰退；1980年恶性通货膨胀导致基准利率飙升至21.5%；以及1930年代的大萧条——失业率在15%到25%之间徘徊了好多年。美国可从来不缺挑战。",[14,728,729,730,733],{},"然而，我们每一次都成功地挺了过来。面对这些障碍——以及其他许多障碍——美国人的实际生活水准在20世纪提高了将近",[705,731,732],{},"七","倍，道琼斯工业指数从66点上升到11,497点。把这段记录与之前数十个世纪中人类生活的微小改善——如果有的话——做个比较，差距惊人。尽管前进之路并不平坦，但长远来看，我们的经济体系运转得异常出色。没有其他体系能像它那样释放出人类的潜能，而且它还将继续如此。美国最好的日子还在前头。",[14,735,736],{},"再看看第二页那张44年的表格。在75%的年份里，标普500指数都录得正收益。我猜测，未来44年中大约也会有类似比例的好年景。但无论是我管理伯克希尔的合伙人查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger)，还是我，都无法提前预知哪些年份赚钱、哪些年份亏钱。（以我们一贯固执己见的看法，我们也不认为其他任何人能做到。）比如，我们可以确定2009年全年的经济状况会很惨淡——而且很可能会持续相当长时间——但这个结论并不能告诉我们股市是涨还是跌。",[14,738,739],{},"无论年景好坏，查理和我都简单地专注于以下四个目标：",[14,741,742],{},"(1) 保持伯克希尔直布罗陀般坚固的财务状况，这意味着充裕的流动性、适度的短期债务，以及数十个收入和现金来源；",[14,744,745],{},"(2) 拓宽保护我们经营业务的”护城河“，使其拥有持久的竞争优势；",[14,747,748],{},"(3) 收购和拓展新的、多元化的利润来源；",[14,750,751],{},"(4) 扩大和培养优秀的管理团队——多年来，正是他们为伯克希尔创造了非凡的业绩。",[692,753,754],{"id":754},"伯克希尔的2008年",[14,756,757],{},"伯克希尔旗下大多数受经济环境显著影响的业务，去年的盈利都低于其潜在水平，2009年也会如此。我们的零售业务受到的打击尤其严重，与住宅建设相关的业务也不例外。不过，总体而言，我们的制造业、服务业和零售业赚取了可观的利润，其中大多数——尤其是规模较大的业务——继续巩固着各自的竞争地位。更值得庆幸的是，伯克希尔最重要的两大业务——保险集团和公用事业集团——其盈利与整体经济的相关性不大。这两项业务在2008年都取得了出色的业绩，前景同样非常光明。",[14,759,760,761,764],{},"正如去年报告中预测的那样，我们保险业务在2007年取得的出色承保利润，2008年没有重现。不过，保险集团还是连续第六年实现了承保盈利。这意味着我们585亿美元的保险”浮存金“——这些钱不属于我们，但由我们持有并为自己的利益进行投资——其成本低于零。事实上，2008年持有这笔浮存金反而",[705,762,763],{},"给","我们带来了28亿美元的收入。查理和我觉得这买卖可真划算。",[14,766,767],{},"长期以来，大多数保险公司都经历着严重的承保损失，这使得他们的经济状况与我们截然不同。当然，某些年份我们也会遭遇承保损失。但我们拥有保险行业最优秀的管理团队，而且在大多数情况下，他们管理着根基深厚、价值非凡的特许经营权。凭借这些优势，我相信我们长期而言将持续实现承保盈利，我们的浮存金因此不会产生任何成本。保险业务是伯克希尔的核心，是我们经济上的发动机。",[14,769,770],{},"查理和我对公用事业业务同样兴致勃勃。该业务去年创出了盈利新高，而且蓄势待发。管理这一业务的戴夫·索科尔 (Dave Sokol) 和格雷格·阿贝尔 (Greg Abel) 取得了公用事业行业中无人能及的成绩。每当他们提出新的项目，我都会欢呼雀跃，因为在这个资本密集型行业中，新项目的投资规模往往很大。这类项目让伯克希尔有机会将大笔资金投入到回报率不错的地方。",[14,772,773],{},"去年我们在资本配置上也做得不错。伯克希尔始终是企业和证券的买家，市场的混乱给我们的购买送来了顺风。投资的时候，悲观是你的朋友，狂热是你的敌人。",[14,775,776],{},"在保险投资组合中，我们完成了三项在正常市场环境下不可能实现的重大投资。这些投资预计每年将为伯克希尔增加约15亿美元的税前收益，并且还有获取资本利得的可能。我们也完成了对马蒙集团 (Marmon) 的收购（目前拥有64%的股权，并将在未来6年内购买剩余股份）。此外，我们的一些子公司进行了补强收购，以加强其竞争地位和盈利能力。",[14,778,779],{},"好消息到此为止。还有一些不太让人愉快的事实：2008年我做了一些愚蠢的投资。我至少犯了一个严重的主动性错误，还有好几个较小的错误也造成了损失。稍后我会详细说明。此外，我还犯了一些不作为的错误——当新情况出现时，我本应重新审视自己的判断并迅速采取行动，结果却只知道吮着大拇指发呆。",[14,781,782],{},"另外，我们继续持有的债券和股票的市值随大盘一起大幅下跌。这并不让查理和我感到烦恼。事实上，当我们手头有资金可以增加仓位时，我们反而很享受这样的价格下跌。很久以前，本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 教给我一句话：“价格是你所支付的，价值是你所得到的。”不管我们谈论的是袜子还是股票，我总是喜欢在打折的时候买好货。",[692,784,785],{"id":785},"业绩衡量",[14,787,788],{},"伯克希尔的价值主要来自两个领域。第一个是投资：股票、债券和现金等价物。年底时这部分资产的总价值为1,220亿美元（不包括我们金融业务和公用事业业务所持有的投资，这些被划入第二个价值领域）。其中约585亿美元的资金来源于浮存金。",[14,790,791],{},"伯克希尔的第二个价值领域是投资和保险业务之外的利润来源。这部分收益来自我们旗下67家非保险公司。我们之所以将保险业务的盈利排除在外，是因为保险业务的价值体现在它产生的可投资资金上，而这一因素已经计入了第一个领域。",[14,793,794],{},"2008年，我们的投资（扣除少数股东权益后）从伯克希尔每股90,343美元下降到77,793美元，这一下降是由市场价格的下跌造成的，而非净卖出股票或债券所致。第二个价值领域的每股税前收益（同样扣除少数股东权益后）从4,093美元下降到3,921美元。",[14,796,797],{},"两个领域的表现都不令人满意。要让伯克希尔的内在价值以可接受的速度增长，我们需要在这两个领域都取得不错的进展。不过，我们今后的重心将放在盈利这一领域上，正如过去几十年来我们一直所做的那样。我们喜欢买入价格低于价值的证券，但更喜欢以合理价格收购经营良好的企业。",[14,799,800],{},"现在让我们来看看伯克希尔的四大运营板块。每个板块的资产负债表和收入特征都截然不同。因此，像标准财务报表那样把它们混在一起，只会妨碍分析。所以我们把它们当作四项独立的业务来呈现——查理和我看待它们的方式就是如此。",[692,802,803],{"id":803},"受监管的公用事业业务",[14,805,806],{},"伯克希尔持有中美能源控股公司 (MidAmerican Energy Holdings) 87.4%的股权（完全摊薄后），该公司旗下经营着多种公用事业业务。其中最大的几项包括：(1) 约克郡电力与北方电力公司 (Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric)，拥有380万终端用户，是英国第三大电力配送商；(2) 中美能源 (MidAmerican Energy)，主要在爱荷华州服务72.3万电力用户；(3) 太平洋电力和洛基山电力公司 (Pacific Power and Rocky Mountain Power)，在美国西部6个州服务约170万电力用户；(4) 科恩河和北方天然管道公司 (Kern River and Northern Natural pipelines)，输送量约占全美天然气消费量的9%。",[14,808,809],{},"我们在中美能源的合伙人包括两位出色的管理者戴夫·索科尔和格雷格·阿贝尔，以及我的老朋友沃尔特·斯科特 (Walter Scott)。每个人有多少投票权并不重要；我们只有在一致认为某项举措明智时才会付诸行动。与戴夫、格雷格和沃尔特共事9年的经历不断印证着我最初的判断：伯克希尔找不到比他们更好的合伙人了。",[14,811,812],{},"有些不太搭界的是，中美能源还拥有全美第二大房地产经纪公司——美国家庭服务公司 (HomeServices of America)。该公司通过21个本地品牌运营，拥有16,000名经纪人。去年是房屋销售的惨淡之年，2009年看起来也好不到哪儿去。不过，当优质经纪公司以合理价格出售时，我们仍会继续收购。",[14,814,815],{},"中美能源公司关键运营数据：",[21,817,818,830],{},[24,819,820],{},[27,821,822,824,827],{},[30,823],{},[30,825,826],{},"2008年收益（百万美元）",[30,828,829],{},"2007年收益（百万美元）",[43,831,832,843,854,865,876,887,898,909,920,931,942,953,964,975,986],{},[27,833,834,837,840],{},[48,835,836],{},"英国电力",[48,838,839],{},"$ 339",[48,841,842],{},"$ 337",[27,844,845,848,851],{},[48,846,847],{},"爱荷华电力",[48,849,850],{},"425",[48,852,853],{},"412",[27,855,856,859,862],{},[48,857,858],{},"西部电力",[48,860,861],{},"703",[48,863,864],{},"692",[27,866,867,870,873],{},[48,868,869],{},"管道运输业务",[48,871,872],{},"595",[48,874,875],{},"473",[27,877,878,881,884],{},[48,879,880],{},"家庭服务",[48,882,883],{},"(45)",[48,885,886],{},"42",[27,888,889,892,895],{},[48,890,891],{},"其他（净值）",[48,893,894],{},"186",[48,896,897],{},"130",[27,899,900,903,906],{},[48,901,902],{},"息税前经营收益",[48,904,905],{},"2,203",[48,907,908],{},"2,086",[27,910,911,914,917],{},[48,912,913],{},"星座能源投资收益*",[48,915,916],{},"1,092",[48,918,919],{},"–",[27,921,922,925,928],{},[48,923,924],{},"利息支出——其他企业债务",[48,926,927],{},"(332)",[48,929,930],{},"(312)",[27,932,933,936,939],{},[48,934,935],{},"利息支出——伯克希尔次级债券",[48,937,938],{},"(111)",[48,940,941],{},"(108)",[27,943,944,947,950],{},[48,945,946],{},"所得税",[48,948,949],{},"(1,002)",[48,951,952],{},"(477)",[27,954,955,958,961],{},[48,956,957],{},"净收益",[48,959,960],{},"$ 1,850",[48,962,963],{},"$ 1,189",[27,965,966,969,972],{},[48,967,968],{},"归属于伯克希尔的净收益**",[48,970,971],{},"$ 1,704",[48,973,974],{},"$ 1,114",[27,976,977,980,983],{},[48,978,979],{},"应付其他企业债务",[48,981,982],{},"19,145",[48,984,985],{},"19,002",[27,987,988,991,994],{},[48,989,990],{},"应付伯克希尔债务",[48,992,993],{},"1,087",[48,995,996],{},"821",[998,999,1000],"ul",{},[1001,1002,1003],"li",{},"包括1.75亿美元分手费和9.17亿美元投资利润。",[14,1005,1006],{},"** 包括伯克希尔赚取的利息收入（扣除相关所得税后），2008年为7,200万美元，2007年为7,000万美元。",[14,1008,1009],{},"中美能源在经营受监管的电力事业和天然气管道方面的记录确实非常出色。下面是一些有力的佐证。",[14,1011,1012],{},"科恩河和北方天然两条管道都是在2002年收购的。一家名为Mastio的公司定期对管道公司进行客户满意度排名。在受评的44家公司中，科恩河在我们收购时排名第9，北方天然排名第39。我们还有很多工作要做。",[14,1014,1015],{},"在Mastio 2009年的报告中，科恩河升至第1名，北方天然升至第3名。查理和我对这样的成绩感到无比自豪。这一切的实现，要归功于两家管道公司数百名员工全心全意地投入到一种全新的企业文化中，并切切实实地兑现了他们的承诺。",[14,1017,1018],{},"我们在电力事业上的成就同样令人瞩目。1995年，中美能源成为爱荷华州的主要电力供应商。通过审慎的规划和对效率的不懈追求，自我们收购以来，该公司一直保持电价不变，而且承诺将维持价格稳定到2013年。",[14,1020,1021],{},"中美能源在保持这种超常的价格稳定的同时，还让爱荷华州在风力发电容量占比方面跃居全美各州之首。自收购以来，中美能源的风电设施从零发展到了占总装机容量近20%。",[14,1023,1024],{},"同样地，2006年我们收购太平洋电力公司 (PacifiCorp) 之后，便积极扩张风力发电。当时风电装机容量仅为33兆瓦，现在已达794兆瓦，而且还在增长。（进入太平洋电力后，我们发现了另一种”风”气：该公司以前有98个经常开会的委员会。现在只剩28个。与此同时，我们的发电量和输电量都大幅增加，员工却减少了2%。）",[14,1026,1027],{},"仅2008年一年，中美能源就在旗下两家运营公司投入了18亿美元用于风力发电，如今在受监管公用事业中，我们的风电装机容量全美第一。顺便做个比较：太平洋电力（表中列为”西部电力”）和爱荷华电力的税前收益合计为11亿美元，而我们在风电上的投入就达18亿美元。在公用事业领域，我们把赚到的每一分钱都投入进去，甚至还不够，只为满足服务区域的需求。事实上，自2000年初伯克希尔入股以来，中美能源从未支付过一分钱股息。所有利润都被再投资，用于建设我们客户所需要也应当享有的公用事业系统。作为回报，我们被允许在巨额投入上获取合理的回报。这对所有相关方来说都是一次伟大的合作。",[1029,1030],"hr",{},[14,1032,1033],{},"我们长期以来公开宣称的目标是成为企业的”最佳买家”——尤其是那些由家族创立和拥有的企业。要实现这个目标，就必须配得上这个称号。这意味着我们必须坚守承诺；避免对收购来的企业加杠杆；赋予管理者非同寻常的自主权；无论顺境逆境都与被收购的企业同在（尽管我们更喜欢顺了又顺）。",[14,1035,1036],{},"我们的行动与我们的话语完全一致。然而，与我们竞争的大多数买家走的是另一条路。对他们来说，收购就是”商品买卖”。合同上的墨迹还没干，这些人已经在谋划”退出策略”了。因此，当我们遇到那些真正关心自己企业未来的卖家时，我们拥有决定性的优势。",[14,1038,1039],{},"几年前，我们的竞争对手被称为”杠杆收购者”（LBO）。但LBO这个名字臭了街。于是，以奥威尔式的手法（即偷换概念的话语术），收购公司决定换个招牌。但他们没有改变的是此前运作模式的核心要素，包括他们钟爱的收费结构和对杠杆的热爱。",[14,1041,1042,1043,1046,1047,1050],{},"他们的新马甲叫”私募股权”（PE）——这个名字完全颠倒了事实：这些公司收购一项业务，几乎总是会导致被收购方资本结构中的股权部分相比之前",[705,1044,1045],{},"大幅缩减","。一些仅仅两三年前被收购的公司，如今因为私募股权买家堆积在它们身上的债务而命悬一线。很多银行债务正在以票面价值七折以下的价格交易，公共债务的跌幅则更为惨烈。值得注意的是，私募股权公司并没有急忙向它们的”监护对象”注入急需的股权资金。相反，它们把自己剩余的资金捂得",[705,1048,1049],{},"严严实实","——“私”得不能再”私”了。",[14,1052,1053,1054,1057],{},"在受监管的公用事业领域，没有大型的家族企业。在这里，伯克希尔希望成为",[705,1055,1056],{},"监管机构","眼中的”最佳买家”。当收购交易被提出时，评判买家资质的是监管机构，而不是出售股权的股东。",[14,1059,1060],{},"当你站在监管机构面前，你的过往记录无处可藏。他们能够——也确实会——给你所运营的其他各州的同行打电话，询问你在业务各方面的表现，包括你是否愿意投入充足的股权资本。",[14,1062,1063],{},"2005年中美能源提出收购太平洋电力公司时，我们将要服务的六个新州的监管机构立即查验了我们在爱荷华州的记录。他们还仔细评估了我们的融资计划和能力。我们通过了审查，正如我们预期将通过未来的每一次审查一样。",[14,1065,1066],{},"我们的信心来自两方面。第一，戴夫·索科尔和格雷格·阿贝尔做任何事都会以一流水准来运营——他们压根不知道还有别的方式。第二，我们希望未来收购更多受监管的公用事业——而且我们深知，今天我们在现有运营区域的表现，将决定明天新的监管区域是否欢迎我们。",[692,1068,1069],{"id":1069},"保险业务",[14,1071,1072],{},"自1967年我们首次进入保险行业以来，这个板块一直是推动伯克希尔增长的引擎。这一可喜的成绩并非来自行业的普遍繁荣。截至2007年的25年间，保险业的平均净资产回报率为8.5%，而财富500强 (Fortune 500) 为14.0%。很明显，我们保险业务的CEO们并没有享受什么顺风。然而这些管理者的表现之出色，远远超出了查理和我在早年间的想象。我为什么那么爱他们？且让我细数道来。",[14,1074,1075],{},"在盖可保险 (GEICO)，托尼·奈斯利 (Tony Nicely)——18岁加入公司至今已经第48个年头——在坚守严格的承保纪律的同时，不断蚕食市场份额。1993年托尼出任CEO时，GEICO的车险市场份额为2.0%，长期徘徊于此。现在我们的市场份额已经达到7.7%，2007年为7.2%。",[14,1077,1078],{},"新业务的增长加上现有业务续保率的提高，使GEICO跃居车险行业第三名。1995年伯克希尔取得控股权时，GEICO排名第七。如今我们仅次于州立农业保险 (State Farm) 和好事达保险 (Allstate)。",[14,1080,1081,1082,1085],{},"GEICO之所以增长，是因为它能帮车主省钱。没人",[705,1083,1084],{},"喜欢","买车险。但几乎人人都喜欢开车。因此，精明的司机会寻找保费最低但服务一流的保险公司。效率是低成本的关键，而效率正是托尼的专长。五年前每名员工管理的保单数为299份。2008年这个数字变成了439份，生产率实现了巨幅提升。",[14,1087,1088],{},"当我们审视GEICO眼前的市场机会时，托尼和我就像裸体夏令营里两只饥饿的蚊子。美味的目标无处不在。首先，也是最重要的，我们车险的新业务正在爆发式增长。美国人前所未有地专注于省钱，他们正成群结队地涌向GEICO。2009年1月，我们创下了保单增长的月度新纪录——以很大的优势。但这个纪录只持续了整整28天：在我们付印本报告时，2月份的增长显然还要更好。",[14,1090,1091],{},"除此之外，我们在相关业务线上也在攻城略地。去年，我们的摩托车保单增长了23.4%，市场份额从约6%上升到超过7%。我们的房车和全地形车业务也在快速增长，虽然基数还不大。最后，我们最近开始进入商用车保险领域——这是一个前景广阔的大市场。",[14,1093,1094],{},"GEICO现在正在帮数百万美国人省钱。欢迎登录 GEICO.com 或致电 1-800-847-7536，看看我们是否也能帮你省钱。",[14,1096,1097],{},"通用再保险 (General Re)，我们大型的国际再保险公司，2008年同样表现出色。此前不久，这家公司还有非常严重的问题（1998年底我们收购它时我完全没有察觉）。到2001年乔·布兰登 (Joe Brandon) 在搭档塔德·蒙特罗斯 (Tad Montross) 的协助下接任CEO时，通用再保险的企业文化已进一步恶化——在承保、准备金和费用控制方面都失去了纪律。乔和塔德上任后，这些问题被果断且成功地解决了。今天通用再保险已经重新焕发光彩。去年春天乔卸任，塔德成为CEO。查理和我非常感激乔拨正了公司的航向，同时我们也确信通用再保险的未来在塔德手中会得到最好的守护。",[14,1099,1100,1101,1104],{},"再保险是一项关乎长期承诺的生意，有时长达五十年甚至更久。过去一年再次向客户证明了一个至关重要的道理：一个承诺的分量，取决于做出承诺的人或机构。这正是通用再保险的优势所在：它是",[705,1102,1103],{},"唯一","一家背靠AAA级企业的再保险公司。本·富兰克林 (Ben Franklin) 说过一句话：“空麻袋立不直”（空头承诺靠不住）。通用再保险的客户完全无需为此担忧。",[14,1106,1107],{},"我们第三大保险业务是阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 的再保险部门，总部设在斯坦福德 (Stamford)，全部只有31名员工。这可能是世界上最非凡的企业之一——难以描述，却让人由衷钦佩。",[14,1109,1110],{},"阿吉特的业务年年不同。它的特点是超大型交易、令人难以置信的执行速度，以及愿意承保让其他人直挠头的保单。每当有一项巨大且不同寻常的风险需要投保时，阿吉特几乎肯定会接到电话。",[14,1112,1113,1114,1117],{},"阿吉特1986年加入伯克希尔。很快，我就意识到我们得到了一位超凡的天才。于是我做了一件合乎逻辑的事：给他在新德里的父母写了封信，问他们家里是否还有一个像他这样的孩子。当然，写信之前我就知道答案了。世界上根本",[705,1115,1116],{},"不可能","有第二个阿吉特。",[14,1119,1120],{},"我们规模较小的保险业务同样以各自的方式表现杰出，如同前面提到的”三巨头”一样，定期以负成本为我们提供宝贵的浮存金。我们将它们的业绩汇总在下表的”其他直保”项下。出于篇幅原因，我们不逐一讨论这些公司。但请放心，查理和我对他们每一家的贡献都心怀感激。",[14,1122,1123,1124,1127],{},"下表是我们保险业务四大支柱的成绩单。承保利润这一栏显示，和2007年一样，四大业务去年都在零成本的基础上为伯克希尔提供了资金。而且这两年我们的承保盈利能力都大幅优于行业水平。当然，我们自己也难免偶尔碰上保险业务的糟糕年份。但总体而言，我预期我们",[705,1125,1126],{},"平均","下来能实现承保盈利。如果真能做到，我们将在未来无限期地免费使用大规模的资金。",[21,1129,1130,1148],{},[24,1131,1132],{},[27,1133,1134,1136,1139,1142,1145],{},[30,1135,1069],{},[30,1137,1138],{},"2008年承保损益（百万美元）",[30,1140,1141],{},"2007年承保损益（百万美元）",[30,1143,1144],{},"2008年年末浮存金（百万美元）",[30,1146,1147],{},"2007年年末浮存金（百万美元）",[43,1149,1150,1167,1184,1201,1218],{},[27,1151,1152,1155,1158,1161,1164],{},[48,1153,1154],{},"通用再保险",[48,1156,1157],{},"$ 342",[48,1159,1160],{},"$ 555",[48,1162,1163],{},"$ 21,074",[48,1165,1166],{},"$ 23,009",[27,1168,1169,1172,1175,1178,1181],{},[48,1170,1171],{},"伯克希尔再保险",[48,1173,1174],{},"1,324",[48,1176,1177],{},"1,427",[48,1179,1180],{},"24,221",[48,1182,1183],{},"23,692",[27,1185,1186,1189,1192,1195,1198],{},[48,1187,1188],{},"盖可保险",[48,1190,1191],{},"916",[48,1193,1194],{},"1,113",[48,1196,1197],{},"8,454",[48,1199,1200],{},"7,768",[27,1202,1203,1206,1209,1212,1215],{},[48,1204,1205],{},"其他直保",[48,1207,1208],{},"210",[48,1210,1211],{},"279",[48,1213,1214],{},"4,739",[48,1216,1217],{},"4,229",[27,1219,1220,1223,1226,1229,1232],{},[48,1221,1222],{},"合计",[48,1224,1225],{},"$ 2,792",[48,1227,1228],{},"$ 3,374",[48,1230,1231],{},"$ 58,488",[48,1233,1234],{},"$ 58,698",[692,1236,1238],{"id":1237},"制造服务和零售业务","制造、服务和零售业务",[14,1240,1241],{},"伯克希尔在这一板块的业务包罗万象。不过，我们先来看看整个业务群的资产负债表和利润表概况。",[14,1243,1244],{},[17,1245,1246],{},"资产负债表（2008年12月31日）单位：百万美元",[21,1248,1249,1264],{},[24,1250,1251],{},[27,1252,1253,1256,1259,1262],{},[30,1254,1255],{},"资产",[30,1257,1258],{},"金额",[30,1260,1261],{},"负债和权益",[30,1263,1258],{},[43,1265,1266,1280,1292,1304,1318,1332,1346,1360,1374],{},[27,1267,1268,1271,1274,1277],{},[48,1269,1270],{},"现金及等价物",[48,1272,1273],{},"$ 2,497",[48,1275,1276],{},"应付票据",[48,1278,1279],{},"$ 2,212",[27,1281,1282,1285,1288,1290],{},[48,1283,1284],{},"应收账款和应收票据",[48,1286,1287],{},"5,047",[48,1289],{},[48,1291],{},[27,1293,1294,1297,1300,1302],{},[48,1295,1296],{},"存货",[48,1298,1299],{},"7,500",[48,1301],{},[48,1303],{},[27,1305,1306,1309,1312,1315],{},[48,1307,1308],{},"其他流动资产",[48,1310,1311],{},"752",[48,1313,1314],{},"其他流动负债",[48,1316,1317],{},"8,087",[27,1319,1320,1323,1326,1329],{},[48,1321,1322],{},"流动资产合计",[48,1324,1325],{},"15,796",[48,1327,1328],{},"流动负债合计",[48,1330,1331],{},"10,299",[27,1333,1334,1337,1340,1343],{},[48,1335,1336],{},"商誉及无形资产",[48,1338,1339],{},"16,515",[48,1341,1342],{},"递延所得税",[48,1344,1345],{},"2,786",[27,1347,1348,1351,1354,1357],{},[48,1349,1350],{},"固定资产",[48,1352,1353],{},"16,338",[48,1355,1356],{},"长期负债及其他负债",[48,1358,1359],{},"6,033",[27,1361,1362,1365,1368,1371],{},[48,1363,1364],{},"其他非流动资产",[48,1366,1367],{},"1,248",[48,1369,1370],{},"所有者权益",[48,1372,1373],{},"30,779",[27,1375,1376,1378,1381,1383],{},[48,1377],{},[48,1379,1380],{},"$ 49,897",[48,1382],{},[48,1384,1380],{},[14,1386,1387],{},[17,1388,1389],{},"利润表 单位：百万美元",[21,1391,1392,1405],{},[24,1393,1394],{},[27,1395,1396,1399,1401,1403],{},[30,1397,1398],{},"科目",[30,1400,634],{},[30,1402,623],{},[30,1404,609],{},[43,1406,1407,1421,1435,1449,1463,1477],{},[27,1408,1409,1412,1415,1418],{},[48,1410,1411],{},"收入",[48,1413,1414],{},"$ 66,099",[48,1416,1417],{},"$ 59,100",[48,1419,1420],{},"$ 52,660",[27,1422,1423,1426,1429,1432],{},[48,1424,1425],{},"营业费用（其中折旧费用：2008年12.80亿美元，2007年9.55亿美元，2006年8.23亿美元）",[48,1427,1428],{},"61,937",[48,1430,1431],{},"55,026",[48,1433,1434],{},"49,002",[27,1436,1437,1440,1443,1446],{},[48,1438,1439],{},"利息费用",[48,1441,1442],{},"139",[48,1444,1445],{},"127",[48,1447,1448],{},"132",[27,1450,1451,1454,1457,1460],{},[48,1452,1453],{},"税前利润",[48,1455,1456],{},"4,023*",[48,1458,1459],{},"3,947*",[48,1461,1462],{},"3,526*",[27,1464,1465,1468,1471,1474],{},[48,1466,1467],{},"所得税和少数股东权益",[48,1469,1470],{},"1,740",[48,1472,1473],{},"1,594",[48,1475,1476],{},"1,395",[27,1478,1479,1482,1485,1488],{},[48,1480,1481],{},"净利润",[48,1483,1484],{},"$ 2,283",[48,1486,1487],{},"$ 2,353",[48,1489,1490],{},"$ 2,131",[998,1492,1493],{},[1001,1494,1495],{},"税前利润不包含购买法会计调整。",[14,1497,1498,1499,1502],{},"这是一个五花八门的集合，卖的东西从棒棒糖到房车，应有尽有。去年它们取得了令人印象深刻的17.9%的平均有形净资产回报率。值得注意的是，这些企业取得如此回报率时只用了很小的财务杠杆。显然，我们拥有一些非常出色的生意。不过，我们收购其中许多公司时支付了远超其净资产的溢价——这一点体现在资产负债表上的商誉科目中——这个因素使得我们平均",[705,1500,1501],{},"账面","价值的回报率降至8.1%。",[14,1504,1505],{},"虽然全年整体业绩令人满意，但去年第四季度这一业务群中许多公司的盈利急转直下。2009年的前景看起来更糟。尽管如此，即使在当前的环境下，这个业务群仍然保持着强劲的盈利能力，并将继续为母公司输送可观的现金流。总体而言，去年这些公司的竞争地位得到了加强，部分原因是我们的财务实力使我们能够进行有利的补强收购。相比之下，许多竞争对手正在勉力求生（或者正在沉没）。",[14,1507,1508],{},"其中最值得一提的是，伊斯卡 (Iscar) 在11月底收购了日本领先的小型切削工具制造商Tungaloy。查理和我继续带着惊叹——和感激！——注视着伊斯卡管理团队的成就。收购一家公司时能得到一位像艾坦·韦特海默 (Eitan Wertheimer)、雅各布·哈帕兹 (Jacob Harpaz) 或丹尼·戈德曼 (Danny Goldman) 这样的管理者就是福气。一次得到三个，简直像赢了三冠王。自我们收购以来，伊斯卡的增长超出了我们本就很高的预期，而有了Tungaloy的加持，其表现必将更上一层楼。",[14,1510,1511],{},"年内，MiTek、本杰明·摩尔 (Benjamin Moore)、Acme砖业 (Acme Brick)、森林河公司 (Forest River)、马蒙集团和CTB也分别完成了一项或多项收购。CTB在全球范围内经营农业设备，自2002年被我们收购以来，已经买下了6家小公司。当年我们为这家公司支付了1.4亿美元。去年它的税前收益达到了8,900万美元。公司CEO维克·曼奇内利 (Vic Mancinelli) 早在我们到来之前就一直遵循着伯克希尔式的经营原则。他专注于基本功——日复一日认真做好每一件小事，从不偏离正轨。十年后，维克将运营一个规模大得多的企业，而更重要的是，他的投入资本回报率仍将非常出色。",[692,1513,1514],{"id":1514},"金融及金融产品",[14,1516,1517],{},"关于克莱顿住宅 (Clayton Homes) 的抵押贷款业务，我要在这里多说几句，财务数据就省略了——本节末尾的表格中有汇总。之所以这样安排，是因为克莱顿最近的经历或许对当前关于住房和抵押贷款的公共政策讨论有些参考价值。首先来看一些背景。",[14,1519,1520],{},"克莱顿是预制住宅行业最大的公司，去年交付了27,499套住宅，约占全行业81,889套总量的34%。2009年我们的市场份额很可能还会进一步扩大，部分原因是行业中的其他公司正处于极度困境之中。从行业整体来看，自1998年达到372,843套的销售高峰后，销量一直在稳步下降。",[14,1522,1523],{},"那个时期，行业中的许多销售做法简直令人发指。后来我描述那段岁月时，写下过这样一句话：“不该借钱的人向不该放贷的人借到了钱。”",[14,1525,1526],{},"首先，有意义的首付款要求常常被无视。有时候甚至有弄虚作假的成分。（“在我看来，这只猫肯定值2,000美元。”如果贷款获批，这个销售员将获得3,000美元的佣金。）不仅如此，那些根本无力偿还月供的借款人也照签不误——反正他们也没什么可失去的。由此产生的抵押贷款通常被打包（“证券化”），由华尔街公司出售给毫无防备的投资者。这一连串的愚蠢行为注定不会有好下场，事实也的确如此。",[14,1528,1529],{},"必须强调的是，克莱顿在那一时期的自身贷款业务中，一直遵循着理性得多的做法。事实上，没有任何一位购买克莱顿发起并证券化的抵押贷款的投资者损失过一分钱的本金或利息。但克莱顿只是个例外；整个行业的损失触目惊心。而这种后遗症至今仍在持续。",[14,1531,1532],{},"1997至2000年这场预制房屋市场的惨剧，本应作为一只金丝雀为规模大得多的常规住房市场敲响警钟。但投资者、政府和评级机构从预制房屋的崩溃中什么教训也没吸取。相反，在2004至2007年间，这场灾难以一种诡异的方式在常规住宅市场重演了：放贷机构乐呵呵地把钱借给那些收入根本无力偿还的人，而借款人也乐呵呵地签字同意那些不可能履行的还款安排。双方都指望”房价上涨”来让这种本不可能成立的安排变成现实。完完全全是又一个郝思嘉 (Scarlett O’Hara)：“明天再说吧。”这种行为的后果，如今正在我们经济的每一个角落激荡回响。",[14,1534,1535,1536,1539],{},"然而，克莱顿的198,888名借款人在整个房市崩盘期间一直正常还款，没有给我们带来意外损失。这并",[705,1537,1538],{},"不是","因为这些借款人的信用特别好——FICO信用评分（一种标准的信用风险衡量指标）就能证明这一点。他们的FICO中位数为644，而全国中位数为723；其中约35%低于620分——这个区间通常被归类为”次级”。而很多常规住宅抵押贷款池中造成灾难性损失的借款人，按FICO评分来衡量，信用反而好得多。",[14,1541,1542],{},"到年底，我们自主发起的贷款的违约率为3.6%，仅比2006年和2004年的2.9%略有上升。（除了自主发起的贷款外，我们还从其他金融机构批量购买了各类贷款组合。）2008年克莱顿的止赎率为自主发起贷款的3.0%，而2006年为3.8%，2004年为5.3%。",[14,1544,1545,1546,1549],{},"为什么我们的借款人——这些通常收入平平、信用评分也不怎么样的人——表现得这么好呢？答案非常简单，回到”贷款学101”就够了。我们的借款人只是老老实实地算了算全额还月供要花多少钱，再对比自己的",[705,1547,1548],{},"实际","收入——不是期望中的收入——然后决定自己是否承受得起。简单说，他们借钱的时候，就打定了主意要还清，不管房价怎么变。",[14,1551,1552,1553,1556],{},"同样重要的是我们的借款人",[705,1554,1555],{},"没有","做什么。他们没有指望靠再融资来还贷。他们没有被那些到期重置后远超自身收入的”诱惑利率”所迷惑。他们也没有假定万一还不起月供，总能把房子卖掉赚一笔。电影《风云人物》里的吉米·斯图尔特 (Jimmy Stewart) 一定会爱死这些人。",[14,1558,1559],{},"当然，我们的借款人中也会有一些人陷入困境。一旦遇到逆境，他们通常没有什么积蓄可以应急。导致违约或止赎的最主要原因是失业，当然死亡、离婚和高额医疗费用也会引发问题。如果失业率上升——2009年这是板上钉钉的事——更多克莱顿的借款人将陷入麻烦，我们也会面临更大的损失，不过仍在可控范围内。但我们的问题基本不会被房价走势所驱动。",[14,1561,1562,1563,1566],{},"关于当前房地产危机的评论往往忽略了一个关键事实：大多数止赎",[705,1564,1565],{},"并非","因为房屋的市场价值低于抵押贷款金额（即所谓的”资不抵债”贷款）。止赎的真正原因是借款人无力支付他们同意偿还的月供。那些真正用储蓄——而非靠借款——支付了有意义的首付款的房主，很少仅仅因为房子当前的价值低于抵押贷款就放弃自住房。他们放弃，是因为付不起月供。",[14,1568,1569],{},"拥有自己的房子是一件美好的事。我和我的家人在现在的房子里已经住了50年了，而且还会继续住下去。但购房的首要动机应该是居住的快乐和实用，而不是图利或者指望再融资。而且购买的房子应该与购房者的收入相匹配。",[14,1571,1572],{},"眼下这场房地产危机应该给购房者、贷款机构、经纪人和政府一些简单的教训，以确保未来的稳定。购房应当实打实地支付至少10%的首付款，月供也应当在借款人收入可以轻松承受的范围内。而且收入必须严格核实。",[14,1574,1575,1576,1579],{},"让人们拥有住房，虽然是个可敬的目标，但不应该是我们国家的首要目标。让他们",[705,1577,1578],{},"住得住","自己的房子，才是应该追求的。",[1029,1581],{},[14,1583,1584],{},"克莱顿的贷款业务虽然没有因借款人的表现而受损，但仍然受到信贷危机某个因素的威胁。那些能获得某种形式政府担保的资金方——拥有联邦存款保险公司 (FDIC) 保险存款的银行、拥有目前由美联储支持的商业票据的大型机构，以及其他通过富有想象力的方法（或游说技巧）挤入政府保护伞下的人——其资金成本微乎其微。相反，像伯克希尔这样信用评级极高的公司，其借贷成本与国债利率之比已达到历史最高水平。而且，政府担保的借款人资金充裕，而其他人则往往资金匮乏，无论其信用多么优良。",[14,1586,1587],{},"这种史无前例的资金成本”利差”，使得任何不享有政府担保资金的贷款人根本无法与那些享有特权地位的竞争者抗衡。政府在决定谁是”富人”、谁是”穷人”。这就是为什么各家公司争先恐后地转型为银行控股公司——而这条路对伯克希尔来说并不可行。",[14,1589,1590,1591,1594],{},"尽管伯克希尔的信用堪称完美无瑕——我们是全美仅有的七家AAA级公司之一——但我们目前的借贷成本却",[705,1592,1593],{},"远高于","那些资产负债表摇摇欲坠、但有政府撑腰的竞争者。在当下这个时刻，做一个有政府担保的财务残废，远好过做一个没有政府担保的直布罗陀。",[14,1596,1597],{},"目前的极端状况应该很快就会结束。在最坏的情况下，我们相信至少能找到部分解决方案，使克莱顿的贷款业务得以继续运营。但如果我们被迫长期与政府扶持的贷款机构竞争，克莱顿的收益肯定会受到影响。",[21,1599,1600,1613],{},[24,1601,1602],{},[27,1603,1604,1607,1610],{},[30,1605,1606],{},"（百万美元）",[30,1608,1609],{},"2008年税前收益",[30,1611,1612],{},"2007年税前收益",[43,1614,1615,1626,1637,1648,1659,1670],{},[27,1616,1617,1620,1623],{},[48,1618,1619],{},"投资净收益",[48,1621,1622],{},"$ 330",[48,1624,1625],{},"$ 272",[27,1627,1628,1631,1634],{},[48,1629,1630],{},"人寿年金业务",[48,1632,1633],{},"23",[48,1635,1636],{},"(60)",[27,1638,1639,1642,1645],{},[48,1640,1641],{},"租赁业务",[48,1643,1644],{},"87",[48,1646,1647],{},"111",[27,1649,1650,1653,1656],{},[48,1651,1652],{},"克莱顿住宅金融",[48,1654,1655],{},"206",[48,1657,1658],{},"526",[27,1660,1661,1664,1667],{},[48,1662,1663],{},"其他*",[48,1665,1666],{},"141",[48,1668,1669],{},"157",[27,1671,1672,1675,1678],{},[48,1673,1674],{},"投资和衍生品损益前收入",[48,1676,1677],{},"$ 787",[48,1679,1680],{},"$ 1,006",[998,1682,1683],{},[1001,1684,1685],{},"其中包括伯克希尔向克莱顿收取的使用伯克希尔信用额度的费用，2008年为9,200万美元，2007年为8,500万美元。",[692,1687,1688],{"id":1688},"免税债券保险",[14,1690,1691],{},"2008年初，我们设立了伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险公司（BHAC），专门承保由各州、城市和其他地方实体发行的免税债券。BHAC在债券首次向公众发售（一级交易）和债券已由投资者持有之后（二级交易）两种情形下，都为发行人提供保险。",[14,1693,1694],{},"到2007年底，这个领域中大约六家主要公司全都陷入了大麻烦。关于它们出问题的原因，好莱坞影星梅·韦斯特 (Mae West) 很久以前就精辟地概括过了：“我本来是白雪公主，但我渐渐跑偏了。”",[14,1696,1697],{},"单一险种保险公司（债券保险公司的别称）最初只承保低风险的免税债券。但随着年头渐长，这块业务的竞争日益激烈，费率不断走低。面对收益停滞或下滑的前景，单一险种的管理者们开始转向风险越来越高的项目。其中一些涉及住宅抵押贷款的承保。当房价暴跌时，整个单一险种行业迅速变得病入膏肓。",[14,1699,1700],{},"年初，伯克希尔提出承接三家最大的单一险种保险公司账上所有免税债券保险。这些公司当时都已命悬一线（尽管它们嘴上不承认）。我们将以1.5%的费率接管约8,220亿美元债券的担保。如果我们的报价被接受，我们将承担持有这些债券的投资者的所有损失——在某些情况下，这一担保长达40年。我们的提议绝非儿戏：出于后文将要详述的原因，这对伯克希尔意味着重大风险。",[14,1702,1703,1704,1707],{},"那几家单一险种保险公司断然拒绝了我们的报价，其中有的还捎带一两句侮辱。然而，他们的拒绝最终证明对我们来说是",[705,1705,1706],{},"很好","的消息，因为事实越来越清楚地表明，我当初严重低估了我们报价的价值。",[14,1709,1710,1711,1714,1715,1718],{},"此后，我们在二级市场承保了约156亿美元的保险。重点来了：其中约77%的业务所涉及的债券",[705,1712,1713],{},"已经","投过保，主要就是由前面提到的三家单一险种公司承保的。在这些协议中，我们",[705,1716,1717],{},"只有","在原始承保人财务上无力赔付时才需要付款。",[14,1720,1721,1722,1725],{},"我们承保这些”第二顺位支付”保险的平均费率为3.3%。没错——我们作为第二支付者收到的费率，远远高于我们之前作为第一支付者愿意收取的1.5%。在一个极端案例中，我们实际上同意成为",[705,1723,1724],{},"第四","支付者，却收取了第一支付者所收1%保费的大约三倍。换句话说，前面三家单一险种保险公司都得先破产，我们才需要掏出第一张支票。",[14,1727,1728,1729,1732],{},"最初我们提出批量报价的三家单一险种保险公司中，有两家后来筹集了大量资本。这当然直接",[705,1730,1731],{},"有利于","我们，因为这降低了这两家公司倒闭从而触发我们作为第二支付者进行赔付的可能性，至少短期内如此。除二级业务外，我们还承保了37亿美元的一级业务，保费为9,600万美元。在一级业务中，如果发行人出了问题，我们当然是第一支付者。",[14,1734,1735,1736,1738],{},"在我们承保的保险背后，我们拥有的资本倍数比任何一家单一险种保险公司都多得多。因此，我们的担保比它们的担保有价值得多。这解释了为什么许多老练的投资者即使已经买了另一家单一险种公司的保险，仍然从我们这里购买第二顺位支付保险。BHAC不仅成为了首选承保人，而且在很多情况下成为债券持有人",[705,1737,1103],{},"能接受的承保人。",[14,1740,1741],{},"尽管如此，我们对承保的业务仍然非常谨慎，并且认为这项保险最终能否为我们盈利远非板上钉钉的事。原因很简单，尽管我从未见过任何一位金融分析师、评级机构或单一险种保险公司CEO哪怕顺嘴提过一句。",[14,1743,1744,1745,1748],{},"为免税债券收取极低保费的逻辑依据是：历史上违约极少。但这个记录主要反映的是发行",[705,1746,1747],{},"未投保","债券的那些机构的经验。免税债券保险在1971年之前根本不存在，即使之后大多数债券仍然没有投保。",[14,1750,1751,1752,1755],{},"一个全部被保险覆盖的免税债券市场，其损失经验必然与一组未投保但其他方面类似的债券有所不同——唯一的问题是",[705,1753,1754],{},"差多少","。要理解原因，让我们回到1975年纽约市濒临破产的那段历史。当时纽约市的债券——几乎全部没有保险——大量由该市的富裕居民以及纽约的银行和其他机构持有。这些本地债券持有人迫切希望解决城市的财政问题。于是不久之后，来自各方利益相关者的让步与合作催生了一个解决方案。如果没有这个方案，所有人都很清楚，纽约市民和企业将因持有这些债券而遭受广泛而严重的经济损失。",[14,1757,1758],{},"现在，想象一下如果纽约市的所有债券都由伯克希尔承保。类似的勒紧裤腰带、增税、工会让步等等措施还会出台吗？当然不会。至少，伯克希尔会被要求”分担”必要的牺牲。而考虑到我们雄厚的财力，被要求的贡献金额一定相当可观。",[14,1760,1761,1762,1765],{},"未来，地方政府面临的财政问题将比目前",[705,1763,1764],{},"严峻得多","。我在去年报告中谈到的养老金负债将是这些困境的主要推手。许多城市和州在查看其2008年末的资金状况时，一定吓出了一身冷汗。资产与用精算方法合理估算的当前负债之间的缺口，简直令人瞠目。",[14,1767,1768],{},"当面临巨额收入缺口时，所有债券都有保险覆盖的地方政府，比那些债券由本地银行和居民持有但没有投保的地方政府，更容易想出对债券持有人不利的”解决方案”。而且，免税债券领域的损失一旦出现，很可能在各发行人之间高度相关。如果少数几个地方赖了债务并且安然无恙，其他人效仿的可能性就会大增。换你是市长或市议会，你会怎么选？是通过大幅加税让当地市民承受痛苦，还是把痛苦丢给远在天边的债券保险公司？",[14,1770,1771],{},"因此，承保免税债券在今天看来是一项危险的生意——事实上与承保自然灾害有相似之处。在这两种情况下，多年无损失的好光景过后，可能紧接着就是一次毁灭性的打击，足以抵消此前全部利润还有余。因此，我们会在这项业务中格外谨慎，许多其他单一险种保险公司习以为常的债券类别，我们都会避开。",[1029,1773],{},[14,1775,1776],{},"把未投保债券的损失经验投射到一个看似类似但大部分已投保的债券市场上——这类推理谬误在金融领域的其他地方也屡见不鲜。各种各样的”回测”模型都容易犯这种错误。尽管如此，它们在金融市场上仍然常常被吹捧为指导未来行动的指南。（如果仅凭翻查过去的财务数据就能预知未来，那福布斯400富豪榜上全都应该是图书管理员。）",[14,1778,1779],{},"事实上，抵押贷款相关证券的惊人损失，在很大程度上正是因为销售人员、评级机构和投资者使用了有缺陷的、基于历史的模型。这些人查看的是房价仅温和上涨、房地产投机行为微不足道时期的损失记录，然后把这些经验当作评估未来损失的标尺。他们心安理得地忽视了一个事实：近年来房价已经飙升，贷款标准已经恶化，许多买家购入了他们根本买不起的房子。简言之，“过去”的世界和”当下”的世界有着截然不同的特征。但贷款机构、政府和媒体基本上都没有认识到这个至关重要的事实。",[14,1781,1782],{},"投资者应该对基于历史的模型保持怀疑。这些模型由一群听起来像书呆子的祭司们搭建，满口都是beta、gamma、sigma之类的神秘术语，看上去往往令人印象深刻。但投资者太容易忘记去审视这些符号背后的假设。我们的忠告是：小心那些拿着公式的怪才。",[1029,1784],{},[14,1786,1787],{},"关于BHAC的最后一点附言：你也许想知道，谁在运营这家公司？虽然我帮忙制定政策，但所有繁重的工作都是阿吉特和他的团队完成的。没错，他们已经管理着240亿美元的浮存金，每年还创造数亿美元的承保利润。但这些活能让一个31人的团队忙多大会儿呢？查理和我觉得该让他们开始做满全天的工了。",[692,1789,1790],{"id":1790},"投资业务",[14,1792,1793],{},"由于会计规则的原因，今年我们把持有的大量普通股分成了两类。下表列出了第一类，详细列出了在我们资产负债表中按市值计量、且年末市值超过5亿美元的投资。",[14,1795,1796],{},[17,1797,1798],{},"2008年12月31日",[21,1800,1801,1820],{},[24,1802,1803],{},[27,1804,1805,1808,1811,1814,1817],{},[30,1806,1807],{},"股份数量",[30,1809,1810],{},"公司名称",[30,1812,1813],{},"持股比例",[30,1815,1816],{},"成本*（百万美元）",[30,1818,1819],{},"市值（百万美元）",[43,1821,1822,1839,1856,1872,1889,1906,1923,1940,1957,1974,1991,2008,2025,2041,2058,2073],{},[27,1823,1824,1827,1830,1833,1836],{},[48,1825,1826],{},"151,610,700",[48,1828,1829],{},"美国运通 (American Express)",[48,1831,1832],{},"13.1",[48,1834,1835],{},"$ 1,287",[48,1837,1838],{},"$ 2,812",[27,1840,1841,1844,1847,1850,1853],{},[48,1842,1843],{},"200,000,000",[48,1845,1846],{},"可口可乐 (The Coca-Cola Company)",[48,1848,1849],{},"8.6",[48,1851,1852],{},"1,299",[48,1854,1855],{},"9,054",[27,1857,1858,1861,1864,1866,1869],{},[48,1859,1860],{},"84,896,273",[48,1862,1863],{},"康菲石油 (ConocoPhillips)",[48,1865,552],{},[48,1867,1868],{},"7,008",[48,1870,1871],{},"4,398",[27,1873,1874,1877,1880,1883,1886],{},[48,1875,1876],{},"30,009,591",[48,1878,1879],{},"强生 (Johnson & Johnson)",[48,1881,1882],{},"1.1",[48,1884,1885],{},"1,847",[48,1887,1888],{},"1,795",[27,1890,1891,1894,1897,1900,1903],{},[48,1892,1893],{},"130,272,500",[48,1895,1896],{},"卡夫食品 (Kraft Foods Inc.)",[48,1898,1899],{},"8.9",[48,1901,1902],{},"4,330",[48,1904,1905],{},"3,498",[27,1907,1908,1911,1914,1917,1920],{},[48,1909,1910],{},"3,947,554",[48,1912,1913],{},"浦项钢铁 (POSCO)",[48,1915,1916],{},"5.2",[48,1918,1919],{},"768",[48,1921,1922],{},"1,191",[27,1924,1925,1928,1931,1934,1937],{},[48,1926,1927],{},"91,941,010",[48,1929,1930],{},"宝洁 (The Procter & Gamble Company)",[48,1932,1933],{},"3.1",[48,1935,1936],{},"643",[48,1938,1939],{},"5,684",[27,1941,1942,1945,1948,1951,1954],{},[48,1943,1944],{},"22,111,966",[48,1946,1947],{},"赛诺菲-安万特 (Sanofi-Aventis)",[48,1949,1950],{},"1.7",[48,1952,1953],{},"1,827",[48,1955,1956],{},"1,404",[27,1958,1959,1962,1965,1968,1971],{},[48,1960,1961],{},"11,262,000",[48,1963,1964],{},"瑞士再保险 (Swiss Re)",[48,1966,1967],{},"3.2",[48,1969,1970],{},"773",[48,1972,1973],{},"530",[27,1975,1976,1979,1982,1985,1988],{},[48,1977,1978],{},"227,307,000",[48,1980,1981],{},"乐购 (Tesco plc)",[48,1983,1984],{},"2.9",[48,1986,1987],{},"1,326",[48,1989,1990],{},"1,193",[27,1992,1993,1996,1999,2002,2005],{},[48,1994,1995],{},"75,145,426",[48,1997,1998],{},"美国合众银行 (U.S. Bancorp)",[48,2000,2001],{},"4.3",[48,2003,2004],{},"2,337",[48,2006,2007],{},"1,879",[27,2009,2010,2013,2016,2019,2022],{},[48,2011,2012],{},"19,944,300",[48,2014,2015],{},"沃尔玛 (Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.)",[48,2017,2018],{},"0.5",[48,2020,2021],{},"942",[48,2023,2024],{},"1,118",[27,2026,2027,2030,2033,2035,2038],{},[48,2028,2029],{},"1,727,765",[48,2031,2032],{},"华盛顿邮报 (The Washington Post Company)",[48,2034,612],{},[48,2036,2037],{},"11",[48,2039,2040],{},"674",[27,2042,2043,2046,2049,2052,2055],{},[48,2044,2045],{},"304,392,068",[48,2047,2048],{},"富国银行 (Wells Fargo & Company)",[48,2050,2051],{},"7.2",[48,2053,2054],{},"6,702",[48,2056,2057],{},"8,973",[27,2059,2060,2062,2065,2067,2070],{},[48,2061],{},[48,2063,2064],{},"其他",[48,2066],{},[48,2068,2069],{},"6,035",[48,2071,2072],{},"4,870",[27,2074,2075,2077,2080,2082,2085],{},[48,2076],{},[48,2078,2079],{},"按市值计量的普通股合计",[48,2081],{},[48,2083,2084],{},"$ 37,135",[48,2086,2087],{},"$ 49,073",[998,2089,2090],{},[1001,2091,2092],{},"这是我们的实际购买价格，也是我们的计税基础；在少数情况下，由于需要进行增值或减值调整，通用会计准则 (GAAP) 认定的”成本”与此有所不同。",[14,2094,2095],{},"此外，我们还持有穆迪 (Moody’s) 和伯灵顿北方圣太菲铁路 (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) 的股份，目前按”权益法”核算——即我们的成本加上自购买以来的留存收益份额，减去如果这些收益作为股息支付时应缴纳的税款。当持有被投资公司的所有权达到20%时，通常需要采用这种会计处理方式。",[14,2097,2098],{},"我们几年前买入了穆迪15%的股份，此后再没买过一股。不过穆迪一直在回购自己的股票，到2008年底，其流通股数量已减少到使我们的持股比例超过了20%。伯灵顿北方铁路也回购了股票，但我们持股比例升至20%主要是因为我们在持续买入这只股票。",[14,2100,2101],{},"除非事实或规则发生变化，你将看到这些持仓以”权益法”的价值体现在我们的资产负债表中，无论其市场价格如何。你也将看到我们应占的收益份额（扣除相关税款后）定期出现在我们的季度和年度利润中。",[14,2103,2104],{},"在这封信的前面部分我曾说过，去年我犯了一个严重的主动性错误（也许还有更多，只是这个最扎眼）。完全不是查理或其他任何人的建议，我在石油和天然气价格接近峰值时买入了大量康菲石油 (ConocoPhillips) 的股票。我完全没有预料到下半年能源价格会出现如此剧烈的暴跌。我仍然认为未来油价远高于目前40至50美元的可能性很大。但到目前为止我大错特错。而且即使油价回升，我糟糕的买入时机已经让伯克希尔损失了数十亿美元。",[14,2106,2107,2108,2111],{},"我还犯了一些其他已经显而易见的错误。它们规模较小，但不幸的是也没",[705,2109,2110],{},"那么","小。2008年我花了2.44亿美元买了两家在我看来很便宜的爱尔兰银行的股票。到年底，我们将这些持仓减记至市价：2,700万美元，亏损89%。自那以后，这两只股票还在继续下跌。网球场上的人会管我这种失误叫”非受迫性失误”。",[14,2113,2114],{},"好的方面是，去年我们在箭牌 (Wrigley)、高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 和通用电气 (General Electric) 发行的固定收益证券上总共投入了145亿美元。我们非常喜欢这些投资安排——它们本身就有很高的当期收益率，足以使这些投资相当令人满意。而且在这三笔交易中，我们每笔都额外获得了可观的股权参与作为附赠。为了筹集这些大额投资的资金，我不得不卖掉一些我本来更愿意继续持有的仓位（主要是强生、宝洁和康菲石油）。然而，我已经向你们、向评级机构、也向我自己承诺过——我将始终以充足的现金来运营伯克希尔。我们绝不愿意依赖陌生人的善意来履行明天的义务。当被迫做出选择时，我不会为了多赚一点利润而牺牲哪怕一晚的安睡。",[14,2116,2117],{},"投资界已经从低估风险走到了高估风险。这不是什么小幅摆动——钟摆划出了一道极其夸张的弧线。就在几年前，这样的景象还不可想象：无风险的政府短期债券收益率接近于零，长期债券也好不了多少，但高等级的市政债券和企业债券居然能提供如此丰厚的收益率。当未来有人书写这个十年的金融史时，肯定会提到1990年代末的互联网泡沫和21世纪初的房地产泡沫。但2008年末的美国国债泡沫可能会被视为几乎同样非同寻常。",[14,2119,2120],{},"在当前收益率水平下长期持有现金等价物或长期政府债券，几乎可以肯定是一种糟糕的策略。当然，随着金融动荡的加剧，持有这些资产的人反而越来越自我感觉良好——事实上近乎沾沾自喜。当他们听到评论员宣称”现金为王”时，更觉得自己英明无比——全然不顾这些”为王”的现金几乎毫无收益，而且购买力随着时间的推移必将不断缩水。",[14,2122,2123],{},"然而，获得赞许并不是投资的目的。事实上，赞许往往适得其反，因为它麻痹了大脑，使其不愿接受新事实，也不愿重新审视此前形成的结论。谨防那些赢得掌声的投资行为；那些真正伟大的举动，通常只会换来一声哈欠。",[692,2125,2126],{"id":2126},"衍生品",[14,2128,2129],{},"衍生品很危险。它们大幅增加了金融系统中的杠杆和风险。它们使得投资者几乎不可能看懂和分析我们最大的商业银行和投资银行。它们让房利美 (Fannie Mae) 和房地美 (Freddie Mac) 多年来大规模虚报收益。房地美和房利美复杂到连它们的联邦监管机构——联邦住房企业监管办公室 (OFHEO)——也完全看不明白账目。该机构100多名员工除了监管这两家机构之外别无他事，却依然对它们的账目造假毫无察觉。",[14,2131,2132],{},"事实上，最近发生的事件表明，某些大型金融机构的知名CEO（或前CEO）根本没有能力管理一个庞大而复杂的衍生品账簿。查理和我也在这个倒霉鬼名单里：1998年伯克希尔收购通用再保险时，我们知道自己搞不定它与884个交易对手签订的23,218份衍生品合约（其中许多对手方我们听都没听说过）。于是我们决定关门大吉。尽管我们退出时没有面临任何压力，市场环境也算温和，但我们还是花了五年时间、亏了4亿多美元才基本完成这项任务。离场之际，我们对这门生意的感受正如一首乡村歌曲里唱的：“在还没那么了解你之前，我更喜欢你一些。”",[14,2134,2135,2136,2139],{},"提高”透明度”——政治家、评论员和金融监管者最热衷的防止未来灾难的药方——并不能治愈衍生品造成的问题。据我所知，没有任何报告机制能够接近于描述和衡量一个庞大复杂的衍生品组合所蕴含的风险。审计师审计不了这些合约，监管者也监管不了它们。当我阅读那些深陷衍生品泥潭的公司10-K年报中动辄数页的”信息披露”时，我最后唯一知道的就是我对它们的投资组合",[705,2137,2138],{},"一无所知","（然后我得吃几片阿司匹林来缓解头痛）。",[14,2141,2142],{},"作为一个监管有效性的案例研究，让我们再仔细看看房地美和房利美的例子。这两个庞然大物由国会创立，国会对它们保持着控制权，规定什么可以做、什么不可以做。为了加强监管，国会在1992年设立了OFHEO，叮嘱它确保这两头巨兽循规蹈矩。以投入监管任务的人力来衡量，这一举措使房利美和房地美成为我所知的监管最严密的公司。",[14,2144,2145,2146,2149],{},"2003年6月15日，OFHEO（其年报可在网上查阅）将2002年度报告递交国会——具体来说是递交给参众两院中它的四位上司，其中赫然包括大名鼎鼎的萨班斯和奥克斯利两位先生（Sarbanes、Oxley）。这份127页的报告封面上写着一句自我表彰的口号：“庆祝卓越的十年”。然而，这份公文和报告是在房地美的CEO和CFO因丑闻辞职、COO被解雇",[705,2147,2148],{},"九天之后","才送出的。信中对他们的离去只字未提，而报告的结论一如既往：“两家企业财务状况良好，管理得当。”",[14,2151,2152],{},"实际上，这两家机构已经进行了相当长时间的大规模会计造假。终于，在2006年，OFHEO发布了一份长达340页的报告，措辞严厉地记述了房利美的种种罪行，并将这场失败或多或少地归咎于每一个相关方——除了，你猜得没错，国会和OFHEO自己。",[14,2154,2155],{},"贝尔斯登 (Bear Stearns) 的崩溃凸显了衍生品交易中内含的对手方风险问题——这颗定时炸弹我在伯克希尔2002年的报告中就首次讨论过。2008年4月3日，时任纽约联储主席的蒂姆·盖特纳 (Tim Geithner) 解释了救援的必要性：“贝尔斯登的衍生品交易对手突然发现，他们为保护自身免受金融风险而建立的重要金融头寸已经失效，这将触发市场进一步的重大混乱。这将促使贝尔斯登的交易对手争相抛售它们持有的抵押品，并试图在本已极其脆弱的市场中复制那些头寸。”翻译成大白话就是：“我们介入是为了避免一场规模不可预测的金融连锁反应。”在我看来，美联储的做法是正确的。",[14,2157,2158,2159,2162],{},"正常的股票或债券交易在几天之内就能完成，一方拿到现金，另一方拿到证券。对手方风险因此迅速消失，信用问题不会累积。这种快速结算流程是维护市场完整性的关键。事实上，这正是纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克在1995年将结算周期从五天",[705,2160,2161],{},"缩短","到三天的原因。",[14,2164,2165,2166,2169,2170,2173],{},"相比之下，衍生品合约常常数年甚至数十年都不结算，交易对手之间累积起巨额的相互索赔。难以量化的”纸面”资产和负债成为财务报表的重要组成部分，尽管这些数字在多年之后才会得到验证。此外，大型金融机构之间形成了一张令人胆寒的相互依存之网。数十亿美元的应收款和应付款集中在少数几个大型交易商手中，而这些交易商在其他方面往往也是高度杠杆化的。试图躲避麻烦的参与者面临的问题，和试图避免性病的人一样：重要的不只是",[705,2167,2168],{},"你","和谁上床，还有",[705,2171,2172],{},"他们","在和谁上床。",[14,2175,2176,2177,2180],{},"延续我们的比喻——和周围所有人”发生关系”，对大型衍生品交易商来说其实还挺有用的，因为这保证了它们一旦出事就能得到政府的救助。换句话说，只有那些问题严重到可能感染整个社区的公司——我就不点名了——才肯定会成为政府关注的对象（我遗憾地说，这种结果是恰当的）。这个恼人的现实催生了一条",[705,2178,2179],{},"企业生存第一定律","，适用于那些野心勃勃、热衷加杠杆、经营着庞大而深不可测的衍生品账簿的CEO们：小打小闹的无能可不够看；你得搞出那种让人叹为观止的超级大烂摊子才行。",[14,2182,2183,2184,2187],{},"看了我描绘的这幅毁灭性画面，你也许会纳闷，为什么伯克希尔自己也是251份衍生品合约的当事方（不包括中美能源出于运营目的使用的合约，以及通用再保险遗留下来的少量合约）。答案很简单：我相信我们持有的每一份合约在签订之初都存在定价偏差，有些偏差还相当惊人。这些头寸是我亲自建立的，也由我亲自监控——这与我的一贯信念完全一致：任何大型金融机构的CEO同时",[705,2185,2186],{},"必须","是首席风险官。如果我们在衍生品上亏了钱，那就是我的错。",[14,2189,2190],{},"我们的衍生品交易要求对手方在合约签订时就向我们付款。因此，资金始终掌握在伯克希尔手中，我们基本不承担有意义的对手方风险。截至年底，我们收到的付款减去已支付的损失——可以称之为我们衍生品的”浮存金“——总计81亿美元。这笔浮存金类似于浮存金：如果我们在基础交易上打个平手，就等于长期免费使用了这笔钱。虽然远非确定无疑，但我们的预期是会比打平做得更好，而且我们用这些资金赚取的大量投资收益将是锦上添花。",[14,2192,2193,2194,2198],{},"只有一小部分合约要求我们在市场走势不利时提供抵押品。即使在去年第四季度那样的混乱条件下，我们也只需提供不到1%的证券组合作为抵押。（当我们提供抵押品时，我们将其存放在第三方，同时保留所存证券的投资收益。）在2002年的年度报告中，我们就曾警告过抵押品追加要求可能带来的致命威胁，去年我们在多家金融机构亲眼目睹了这一幕的真实上演（不仅如此，星座能源 ",[2195,2196,2197],"span",{},"Constellation Energy"," 在中美能源赶到施以援手时，距离破产只有数小时之遥）。",[14,2200,2201],{},"我们的合约分为四大类。对金融工具不太感兴趣的朋友，我先说声抱歉，因为我将非常详细地逐一解释。",[998,2203,2204],{},[1001,2205,2206],{},"我在去年报告中描述的”股票看跌期权”组合今年又适度扩大了。我们的一些合约15年后到期，另一些则是20年。如果在到期日，与看跌期权挂钩的参考指数低于合约签订时的水平，我们就必须向交易对手付款。任何一方都不能选择提前结算；重要的只是最后一天的价格。",[14,2208,2209],{},"举个例子：假设我们在标普500指数为1,300点时卖出一份价值10亿美元、期限15年的看跌期权。如果到期日指数为1,170——下跌了10%——我们需要支付1亿美元。如果指数高于1,300，我们分文不欠。要让我们亏掉全部10亿美元，指数必须跌到零。与此同时，卖出这份看跌期权将为我们带来一笔保费收入——大约1亿到1.5亿美元——我们可以自由地将其投资于任何地方。",[14,2211,2212],{},"我们的看跌期权合约总金额为371亿美元（按当前汇率计算），分布于四个主要指数：美国的标普500指数、英国的富时100指数、欧洲的欧洲斯托克50指数和日本的日经225指数。第一份合约于2019年9月9日到期，最后一份于2028年1月24日到期。我们已经收到了49亿美元的保费，这些钱已被我们用于投资。与此同时，我们无需支付任何款项，因为所有到期日都在遥远的将来。尽管如此，我们采用了布莱克-斯科尔斯 (Black-Scholes) 估值方法记录了100亿美元的年末负债，这个数字在每个报告日都会变动。这两项财务数据——100亿美元的预计损失减去49亿美元的已收保费——意味着到目前为止，我们在这些合约上按市值计价已录得了51亿美元的损失。",[14,2214,2215],{},"我们支持按市值计价的会计方法。不过稍后我会解释，为什么我认为布莱克-斯科尔斯公式——尽管它是确定期权金额负债的行业标准——在对长期品种进行估值时会产生奇怪的结果。",[14,2217,2218],{},"关于我们的合约有一点有时容易被误解：要让我们面临的全部371亿美元风险都变成损失，四个指数中所有股票都必须在各自的到期日跌到零。如果——举个例子——所有指数都从各自合约签订时的水平下跌25%，而汇率保持在今天的水平，那么我们大约需要在2019年至2028年间支付约90亿美元。在合约签订到到期的这段时间里，我们手中持有49亿美元的保费，并从中赚取投资收益。",[998,2220,2221],{},[1001,2222,2223],{},"我在去年报告中描述的第二类衍生品，要求我们在高收益指数中所含公司发生信用损失时进行赔付。我们的标准合约覆盖5年期限，涉及100家公司。去年我们适度扩大了这一类别的头寸。但当然，2007年底账面上的合约离到期又近了一年。总体而言，我们的合约现在平均剩余期限约为2又1\u002F3年，第一份将于2009年9月20日到期，最后一份于2013年12月20日到期。",[14,2225,2226],{},"到年底，我们从这些合约收到了34亿美元的保费，并支付了5.42亿美元的损失。按照按市值计价的原则，我们还为未来损失计提了30亿美元的负债准备。因此，我们到目前为止合计录得约1亿美元的损失——即35亿美元的已付和预计未来损失减去收到的34亿美元保费。然而，在我们的季度报告中，盈亏金额波动剧烈，从2008年第二季度的3.27亿美元利润到2008年第四季度的6.93亿美元亏损。",[14,2228,2229],{},"令人惊讶的是，去年我们为这些合约实际只支付了9,700万美元的赔付，远低于我当初决定签订这些合约时的预估。然而，随着大型破产案例的急剧增加，今年损失将加速增长。在去年的信中，我告诉你们我预期这些合约到期时将实现盈利。现在，随着经济衰退急速加深，最终亏损的可能性增大了。无论结果如何，我都会随时向你们通报。",[998,2231,2232],{},[1001,2233,2234],{},"2008年我们开始对单个公司签写”信用违约互换” (credit default swaps)。这只是信用保险的一种，与我们在BHAC承做的类似，只不过这里我们承担的是公司的信用风险，而不是免税债券发行人的信用风险。",[14,2236,2237],{},"比方说，XYZ公司破产了，而我们签了一份1亿美元的合约，那我们就有义务支付一个反映XYZ公司同等金额债务缩水程度的赔偿。（例如，如果该公司的债券在违约后以30美分的价格交易，我们就欠7,000万美元。）对于一份典型的合约，我们在5年内按季度收取保费，之后保险到期。",[14,2239,2240],{},"到年底，我们为42家公司签写了总计40亿美元的合约，年保费收入约9,300万美元。这是我们承做的唯一具有交易对手风险的衍生品业务——向我们购买合约的一方必须在未来五年内有能力按季度支付保费。我们不太可能大幅扩大这项业务，因为这类保险的大多数买家现在都坚持要求卖方提供抵押品，而我们不会签订这类安排。",[998,2242,2243],{},[1001,2244,2245],{},"应客户要求，我们签写了少量免税债券保险合约，与BHAC承做的类似，但结构上归类为衍生品。两种合约之间唯一有实质意义的区别是：衍生品需要按市值计价，而BHAC则采用标准的权责发生制会计。",[14,2247,2248],{},"但这一区别可能产生奇特的结果。这些衍生品覆盖——实际上就是承保——的债券大多是各州的一般义务债券，我们对这些债券感觉良好。然而到年底，按市值计价的会计要求我们对这些衍生品合约记录了6.31亿美元的损失。假如我们改为在BHAC以相同的价格为同一批债券投保，并采用保险公司要求的权责发生制会计，我们当年反而会录得小幅利润。这两种保险方式最终会产生相同的会计结果。但在短期内，报告利润的差异可能相当大。",[14,2250,2251],{},"之前我已经告诉过你们，我们的衍生品合约——由于适用按市值计价的会计方法——在我们报告的利润中将产生剧烈的波动。这些起起落落既不会让查理和我欢呼，也不会让我们烦恼。事实上，“下降”还可能是有益的，因为它给了我们以有利条件扩大头寸的机会。我希望这番关于我们交易的解释能让你们也形成同样的看法。",[1029,2253],{},[14,2255,2256],{},"布莱克-斯科尔斯公式在金融界已经接近圣经般的地位，我们也用它在财务报表中为股票看跌期权定价。该公式需要的关键输入参数包括合约的期限和执行价格，以及分析者对波动率、利率和股息的预期。",[14,2258,2259],{},"然而，如果把这个公式应用于过长的时间跨度，它可能产生荒谬的结果。公平地说，布莱克和斯科尔斯几乎肯定对此心知肚明。但他们的忠实追随者可能忽略了两位先生在首次公布公式时所附加的种种警告。",[14,2261,2262],{},"用极端情形来检验一个理论往往很有用。所以，让我们假设我们以标普500指数903点（2008年12月31日的水平）为执行价格，卖出一份100年期、名义金额10亿美元的看跌期权。采用我们对长期合约使用的隐含波动率假设，配合适当的利率和股息假设，我们会发现这份合约”正确的”布莱克-斯科尔斯保费为250万美元。",[14,2264,2265],{},"要判断这个保费是否合理，我们需要评估一个世纪后标普指数是否会低于今天的水平。美元到那时肯定只值今天的一小部分（仅按2%的通胀率计算，大约相当于14美分）。这将是推动指数名义值上升的一个因素。但远比这重要的是，100年的留存收益将极大地增加指数中大多数公司的价值。20世纪，道琼斯工业指数上涨了约175倍，主要原因就是这个留存收益因素。",[14,2267,2268,2269,2272],{},"综合所有因素，我相信指数在100年后下跌的概率",[705,2270,2271],{},"远","低于1%。但就让我们用这个数字吧，同时假设万一真的下跌，最可能的跌幅是50%。在这些假设下，我们这份合约的数学期望损失为500万美元（10亿 x 1% x 50%）。",[14,2274,2275],{},"但如果我们预先收到250万美元的理论保费，只需以每年0.7%的复合收益率投资，就足以覆盖这一预期损失。超出0.7%的部分全都是利润。你愿意以0.7%的利率借款100年吗？",[14,2277,2278],{},"让我们从最坏情况的角度来看这个例子。记住，如果我的假设正确，99%的概率我们无需支付任何东西。但即使在剩余1%的可能性中最坏的情况——即假设全额损失10亿美元——我们的借款成本也不过6.2%。显然，要么我的假设荒唐至极，要么这个公式不适用。",[14,2280,2281],{},"在我这个极端例子中，布莱克-斯科尔斯公式之所以算出荒谬的保费，是因为公式中包含了波动率这一变量，而波动率是由股票在过去某段时期——日、月或年——内的波动幅度决定的。在估算100年后美国企业价值的概率加权区间时，这个指标毫无意义。（想象一下，如果你愿意的话，每天从一个患有躁郁症的邻居那里获得一个农场的报价，然后用这些不断变化的报价算出来的波动率，作为预测这个农场100年后价值概率区间的公式中的关键参数。）",[14,2283,2284],{},"虽然历史波动率在评估短期期权时是一个有用的概念——但远非万无一失——随着期权期限的延长，其有效性会迅速下降。在我看来，布莱克-斯科尔斯公式目前对我们长期看跌期权的估值高估了我们的负债，不过这种高估会随着合约临近到期而逐渐减小。",[14,2286,2287],{},"即便如此，我们仍将继续使用布莱克-斯科尔斯公式来估算财务报表中长期股票看跌期权的负债。这个公式代表着传统智慧，我提出的任何替代方案都会招来极度的怀疑。这完全可以理解：那些为深奥的金融工具炮制自家估值方法的CEO，鲜有在保守端犯错的。那个乐观主义者俱乐部，查理和我可没兴趣加入。",[692,2289,2290],{"id":2290},"年度股东大会",[14,2292,2293,2294,2297],{},"今年的股东大会将于5月2日星期六举行。一如往常，Qwest中心的大门将于早上7点开启，8点30分放映伯克希尔新年度电影。9点30分我们将直接进入问答环节，持续到下午3点（午餐时间在Qwest的看台处稍作休息）。短暂休息后，查理和我将于3点15分召开正式年度会议。如果你决定在当天的问答环节中途离场，请在",[705,2295,2296],{},"查理","发言的时候走。",[14,2299,2300,2301,2304],{},"离场最好的理由，当然是去",[705,2302,2303],{},"购物","。我们会在与会场相连的194,300平方英尺的大厅里摆满伯克希尔旗下子公司的产品来帮你完成购物任务。去年，到场的31,000人都尽了自己的一份力，几乎每个展位都创下了销售新纪录。但你可以做得更好。（友情提醒：如果我发现销售情况不佳，我就把出口锁上。）",[14,2306,2307,2308,2311,2312,2314],{},"今年克莱顿将展示其全新的",[705,2309,2310],{},"i-house","预制房屋，内含Shaw地毯、Johns Manville隔热材料和MiTek紧固件。这栋创新的”绿色”住宅配备太阳能板和众多其他节能产品，是真正的未来之家。如果建在奥马哈这样的地区，每天电费和取暖费估计总共只要1美元左右。买完",[705,2313,2310],{},"之后，接下来可以考虑旁边展示的森林河房车和浮桥船。保准让你的邻居羡慕得不行。",[14,2316,2317],{},"盖可保险将设有一个展位，配备来自全国各地的顶尖顾问团队，随时为你提供车险报价。在大多数情况下，GEICO能为你提供股东优惠折扣（通常为8%）。这项特别优惠在我们运营的50个管辖区中有44个已获批准。（补充说明：如果你已经符合其他团体优惠的条件，两个折扣不能叠加。）带上你现有保险的详细信息，看看我们能不能帮你省钱。我相信至少有50%的人可以。",[14,2319,2320],{},"周六，在奥马哈机场，我们会像往常一样展示一系列利捷航空 (NetJets) 的飞机供你参观。到Qwest的NetJets展位了解参观详情。坐大巴来奥马哈，开自己的新飞机离开。别忘了带上你在我们Quikut子公司展台买的Ginsu刀——放心，不会有搜身检查。",[14,2322,2323],{},"接下来，如果你还有余钱，去书虫书店 (Bookworm) 逛逛，那里出售大约30种书籍和DVD。为那些求知欲远超搬运能力的朋友，我们还提供运送服务。",[14,2325,2326],{},"最后，展示大厅里还有三辆迷人的汽车，其中一辆来自过去，一辆来自未来。我们子公司TTI的CEO保罗·安德鲁斯 (Paul Andrews) 将带来他1935年的杜森伯格 (Duesenberg) 老爷车——这辆车曾属于弗雷斯特·马尔斯太太 (Mrs. Forrest Mars, Sr.)，她是我们在箭牌收购案中新合伙人的母亲和祖母。代表”未来”的则是一辆由比亚迪 (BYD) 开发的新型插电式电动车——这是一家令人惊叹的中国公司，我们持有其10%的股权。",[14,2328,2329],{},"随本报告一起附上的委托书附件解释了如何获取参加会议和其他活动所需的入场凭证。至于飞机、酒店和租车预订，我们再次委托美国运通 (American Express)（800-799-6634）为你提供特别协助。每年负责这些事务的卡罗尔·彼得森 (Carol Pedersen) 工作出色，在此向她表示感谢。酒店房间可能不太好找，但联系卡罗尔，她会帮你解决。",[14,2331,2332],{},"在位于Dodge大街和Pacific大街之间72大街、占地77英亩的内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)，我们将再次举办”伯克希尔周末”特惠活动。这项特别活动在NFM始于12年前，活动期间的销售额从1997年的530万美元增长到2008年创纪录的3,330万美元。那个周末的星期六，我们还创下了单日720万美元的销售纪录。随便问一个零售商对这种销量怎么看吧。",[14,2334,2335],{},"要享受伯克希尔折扣，请在4月30日（周四）至5月4日（周一）期间购买，并出示你的会议凭证。这段时间的特惠价格甚至适用于一些声望卓著的品牌制造商的产品——这些厂商通常有严格的不打折规定，但本着股东周末的精神，为你们破了例。我们感谢他们的配合。NFM的营业时间为周一至周六上午10点至晚上9点，周日上午10点至下午6点。今年周六下午5点30分至8点，NFM将举办一场西式户外烧烤派对，诚挚欢迎各位参加。",[14,2337,2338],{},"在波仙珠宝店 (Borsheim’s)，我们将再次举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是5月1日（周五）下午6点至10点的鸡尾酒会。第二场也是主要的盛会，将于5月3日（周日）上午9点至下午4点举行。周六营业至下午6点。",[14,2340,2341],{},"整个周末波仙珠宝店将人山人海。为了你的方便，股东特惠价格将从4月27日（周一）持续到5月9日（周六）。在此期间，请出示你的会议凭证或证明你持有伯克希尔股份的券商对账单，以证明股东身份。",[14,2343,2344],{},"周日，在波仙珠宝店外的广场上，两届全美国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫 (Patrick Wolff) 将蒙眼挑战所有来者——挑战者们的眼睛可以睁得大大的——以六人为一组。附近，来自达拉斯的出色魔术师诺曼·贝克 (Norman Beck) 将令观众们目瞪口呆。此外，两位世界顶尖桥牌专家鲍勃·哈曼 (Bob Hamman) 和莎朗·奥斯伯格 (Sharon Osberg) 将于周日下午与股东们切磋牌艺。",[14,2346,2347,2348,2351],{},"Gorat’s牛排餐厅将在5月3日（周日）下午1点至10点专为伯克希尔股东服务。去年，可容纳240人的Gorat’s在股东周日当天供应了975份晚餐。三天总计2,448份，其中包括702份行家们青睐的主菜——T骨牛排。拜托不要点鹅肝来让我难堪。请记住：当天到Gorat’s用餐必须预约。请于4月1日致电402-551-3733预订（",[705,2349,2350],{},"不要提前","）。",[14,2353,2354],{},"周六下午4点，我们将再次为来自北美以外地区的股东举办招待会。每年都有来自全球各地的人士参加我们的大会，查理和我要确保亲自迎接每一位远道而来的客人。去年我们愉快地接待了来自数十个国家的700多位嘉宾。来自美国和加拿大以外的股东将获得特别的入场凭证和参加此活动的指南。",[1029,2356],{},[14,2358,2359],{},"今年我们将在处理会议问答环节的方式上做出重大改变。近几年来，我们收到的直接与伯克希尔及其运营相关的问题寥寥无几。去年几乎一个都没有。所以我们需要把讨论引导回伯克希尔的业务上来。",[14,2361,2362],{},"还有一个相关的问题：每天早上7点开门时，总会出现一阵疯狂的冲刺，因为人们想抢到12个提问麦克风前的第一个位置。从安全角度来说这不可取，而且我们也不认为短跑速度应该成为决定谁能提问的标准。（在78岁这一年，我得出结论：脚下的速度是一种被荒唐高估的天赋。）总之，新的程序是必要的。",[14,2364,2365,2366,2371,2372,2376,2377,2381],{},"第一个变化：来自报纸、杂志和电视媒体的几位财经记者将参与问答环节，向查理和我提出股东们通过电子邮件提交的问题。这些记者及其邮箱分别是：《财富》(Fortune) 杂志的卡罗尔·卢米斯 (Carol Loomis)，邮箱 ",[2367,2368,2370],"a",{"href":2369},"mailto:cloomis@fortunemail.com","cloomis@fortunemail.com","；CNBC的贝基·奎克 (Becky Quick)，邮箱 ",[2367,2373,2375],{"href":2374},"mailto:BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","；《纽约时报》(The New York Times) 的安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金 (Andrew Ross Sorkin)，邮箱 ",[2367,2378,2380],{"href":2379},"mailto:arsorkin@nytimes.com","arsorkin@nytimes.com","。每位记者将从收到的问题中挑选出他或她认为最有趣、最重要的十几个问题。（在你的邮件中，如果你希望被选中时记者能提到你的名字，请予以说明。）",[14,2383,2384],{},"查理和我事先不会得到关于所提问题的任何暗示。我们知道记者们会挑一些尖锐的问题——这正合我们意。",[14,2386,2387],{},"第二个变化：早上8点15分，我们将在每个麦克风处为希望亲自提问的股东进行抽签。在会议上，我将交替回答记者提出的问题和中签股东的问题。因此，至少一半的问题——那些由记者从你们提交的问题中筛选出来的——肯定是与伯克希尔相关的。与此同时，我们也会继续从在场观众那里得到一些好问题——也许还有些饶有趣味的问题。",[14,2389,2390],{},"所以，来参加我们这场资本家的伍德斯托克音乐节吧，也告诉我们你对新形式的看法。查理和我期待与大家见面。",[14,2392,2393],{},"2009年2月27日",[14,2395,2396],{},"沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren E. Buffett)",[14,2398,2399],{},"董事会主席",[14,2401,2402],{},"(*): 本报告中使用的所有每股数字均适用于伯克希尔A股。B股数据为A股的三十分之一。",{"title":2404,"searchDepth":2405,"depth":2405,"links":2406},"",2,[2407,2409,2410,2411,2412,2413,2414,2415,2416,2417,2418],{"id":694,"depth":2408,"text":695},3,{"id":754,"depth":2408,"text":754},{"id":785,"depth":2408,"text":785},{"id":803,"depth":2408,"text":803},{"id":1069,"depth":2408,"text":1069},{"id":1237,"depth":2408,"text":1238},{"id":1514,"depth":2408,"text":1514},{"id":1688,"depth":2408,"text":1688},{"id":1790,"depth":2408,"text":1790},{"id":2126,"depth":2408,"text":2126},{"id":2290,"depth":2408,"text":2290},"致股东信",null,"2008年巴菲特致股东信，分析金融危机冲击、投资策略调整、收购靴匠及邮报公司","md",{},true,79,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":2421},"2008 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2460,"slug":2461,"category":2442,"order":2408},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":2463,"slug":2464,"category":2446,"order":2408},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2466,"slug":2467,"category":2437,"order":2468},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":2470,"slug":2471,"category":2442,"order":2468},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":2473,"slug":2474,"category":2446,"order":2468},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2476,"slug":2477,"category":2437,"order":2478},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":2480,"slug":2481,"category":2442,"order":2478},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":2483,"slug":2484,"category":2446,"order":2478},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2486,"slug":2487,"category":2437,"order":2488},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":2490,"slug":2491,"category":2442,"order":2488},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":2493,"slug":2494,"category":2446,"order":2488},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2496,"slug":2497,"category":2437,"order":2498},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":2500,"slug":2501,"category":2442,"order":2498},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":2503,"slug":2504,"category":2446,"order":2498},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2506,"slug":2507,"category":2437,"order":2508},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":2510,"slug":2511,"category":2442,"order":2508},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2513,"slug":2514,"category":2446,"order":2508},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2516,"slug":2517,"category":2437,"order":2518},"1962年11月 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":2540,"slug":2541,"category":2442,"order":2538},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":2543,"slug":2544,"category":2446,"order":2538},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2546,"slug":2547,"category":2437,"order":2548},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":2550,"slug":2551,"category":2442,"order":2548},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":2553,"slug":2554,"category":2446,"order":2548},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2556,"slug":2557,"category":2437,"order":2558},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":2560,"slug":2561,"category":2442,"order":2558},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":2563,"slug":2564,"category":2446,"order":2558},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2566,"slug":2567,"category":2437,"order":2568},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":2570,"slug":2571,"category":2442,"order":2568},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2573,"slug":2574,"category":2446,"order":2568},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2576,"slug":2577,"category":2437,"order":2578},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":2580,"slug":2581,"category":2442,"order":2578},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":2583,"slug":2584,"category":2446,"order":2578},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2586,"slug":2587,"category":2437,"order":2588},"1964 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巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":2700,"slug":2701,"category":2442,"order":2698},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":2703,"slug":2704,"category":2446,"order":2698},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2706,"slug":2707,"category":2437,"order":2708},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":2710,"slug":2711,"category":2442,"order":2708},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":2713,"slug":2714,"category":2446,"order":2708},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2716,"slug":2717,"category":2437,"order":2718},"1967年11月 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":2740,"slug":2741,"category":2442,"order":2738},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":2743,"slug":2744,"category":2446,"order":2738},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2746,"slug":2747,"category":2419,"order":2748},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":2750,"slug":2751,"category":2442,"order":2748},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":2753,"slug":2754,"category":2446,"order":2748},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2756,"slug":2757,"category":2437,"order":2758},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":2760,"slug":2761,"category":2442,"order":2758},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":2763,"slug":2764,"category":2446,"order":2758},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2766,"slug":2767,"category":2437,"order":2768},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":2770,"slug":2771,"category":2442,"order":2768},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":2773,"slug":2774,"category":2419,"order":2775},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":2777,"slug":2778,"category":2442,"order":2775},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":2780,"slug":2781,"category":2437,"order":2782},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":2784,"slug":2785,"category":2442,"order":2782},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":2787,"slug":2788,"category":2437,"order":2789},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":2791,"slug":2792,"category":2442,"order":2789},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":2794,"slug":2795,"category":2437,"order":2796},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":2798,"slug":2799,"category":2442,"order":2796},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":2801,"slug":2802,"category":2437,"order":2803},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":2805,"slug":2806,"category":2442,"order":2803},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2808,"slug":2809,"category":2419,"order":2810},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":2812,"slug":2813,"category":2442,"order":2810},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2815,"slug":2816,"category":2437,"order":2817},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":2819,"slug":2820,"category":2442,"order":2817},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":2822,"slug":2823,"category":2419,"order":2824},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":2826,"slug":2827,"category":2442,"order":2824},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":2829,"slug":2830,"category":2419,"order":2831},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2833,"slug":2834,"category":2442,"order":2831},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2836,"slug":2837,"category":2419,"order":2838},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2840,"slug":2841,"category":2442,"order":2838},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2843,"slug":2844,"category":2419,"order":2845},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2847,"slug":2848,"category":2442,"order":2845},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2850,"slug":2851,"category":2419,"order":2852},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2854,"slug":2855,"category":2442,"order":2852},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2857,"slug":2858,"category":2419,"order":2859},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2861,"slug":2862,"category":2442,"order":2859},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2864,"slug":2865,"category":2419,"order":2866},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2868,"slug":2869,"category":2442,"order":2866},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2871,"slug":2872,"category":2419,"order":2873},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2875,"slug":2876,"category":2442,"order":2873},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2878,"slug":2879,"category":2419,"order":2880},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2882,"slug":2883,"category":2442,"order":2880},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2885,"slug":2886,"category":2419,"order":2887},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2889,"slug":2890,"category":2442,"order":2887},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2892,"slug":2893,"category":2419,"order":2894},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2896,"slug":2897,"category":2442,"order":2894},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2899,"slug":2900,"category":2419,"order":2901},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2903,"slug":2904,"category":2442,"order":2901},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2906,"slug":2907,"category":2419,"order":2908},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2910,"slug":2911,"category":2442,"order":2908},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2913,"slug":2914,"category":2419,"order":2915},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2917,"slug":2918,"category":2442,"order":2915},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2920,"slug":2921,"category":2419,"order":2922},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2924,"slug":2925,"category":2442,"order":2922},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2927,"slug":2928,"category":2419,"order":2929},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2931,"slug":2932,"category":2442,"order":2929},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2934,"slug":2935,"category":2419,"order":2936},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2938,"slug":2939,"category":2442,"order":2936},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2941,"slug":2942,"category":2419,"order":2943},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2945,"slug":2946,"category":2442,"order":2943},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2948,"slug":2949,"category":2419,"order":2950},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2952,"slug":2953,"category":2442,"order":2950},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2955,"slug":2956,"category":2419,"order":2957},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2959,"slug":2960,"category":2442,"order":2957},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2962,"slug":2963,"category":2419,"order":2964},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2966,"slug":2967,"category":2442,"order":2964},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2969,"slug":2970,"category":2419,"order":2971},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2973,"slug":2974,"category":2442,"order":2971},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2976,"slug":2977,"category":2419,"order":2978},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2980,"slug":2981,"category":2442,"order":2978},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2983,"slug":2984,"category":2419,"order":2985},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2987,"slug":2988,"category":2442,"order":2985},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2990,"slug":2991,"category":2419,"order":2992},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2994,"slug":2995,"category":2442,"order":2992},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2997,"slug":2998,"category":2419,"order":2999},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":3001,"slug":3002,"category":2442,"order":2999},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3004,"slug":3005,"category":2419,"order":3006},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":3008,"slug":3009,"category":2442,"order":3006},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":3011,"slug":3012,"category":2419,"order":3013},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":3015,"slug":3016,"category":2442,"order":3013},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":3018,"slug":3019,"category":2419,"order":3020},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":3022,"slug":3023,"category":2442,"order":3020},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":3025,"slug":3026,"category":2419,"order":3027},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":3029,"slug":3030,"category":2442,"order":3027},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3032,"slug":3033,"category":2419,"order":3034},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":3036,"slug":3037,"category":2442,"order":3034},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":3039,"slug":3040,"category":2419,"order":3041},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":3043,"slug":3044,"category":2442,"order":3041},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":3046,"slug":3047,"category":2419,"order":3048},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":3050,"slug":3051,"category":2442,"order":3048},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3053,"slug":3054,"category":2419,"order":3055},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":3057,"slug":3058,"category":2442,"order":3055},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3060,"slug":3061,"category":2419,"order":3062},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":3064,"slug":3065,"category":2442,"order":3062},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":3067,"slug":3068,"category":2419,"order":3069},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":3071,"slug":3072,"category":2442,"order":3069},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":3074,"slug":3075,"category":2419,"order":3076},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":3078,"slug":3079,"category":2442,"order":3076},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":5,"slug":2429,"category":2419,"order":2425},{"title":3082,"slug":3083,"category":2442,"order":2425},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":3085,"slug":3086,"category":2419,"order":3087},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":3089,"slug":3090,"category":2442,"order":3087},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":3092,"slug":3093,"category":2419,"order":3094},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":3096,"slug":3097,"category":2442,"order":3094},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3099,"slug":3100,"category":2419,"order":3101},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":3103,"slug":3104,"category":2442,"order":3101},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3106,"slug":3107,"category":2419,"order":3108},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":3110,"slug":3111,"category":2442,"order":3108},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3113,"slug":3114,"category":2419,"order":3115},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":3117,"slug":3118,"category":2442,"order":3115},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":3120,"slug":3121,"category":2419,"order":3122},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":3124,"slug":3125,"category":2442,"order":3122},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":3127,"slug":3128,"category":2419,"order":3129},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":3131,"slug":3132,"category":2442,"order":3129},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":3134,"slug":3135,"category":2419,"order":3136},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":3138,"slug":3139,"category":2442,"order":3136},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":3141,"slug":3142,"category":2419,"order":3143},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":3145,"slug":3146,"category":2442,"order":3143},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":3148,"slug":3149,"category":2419,"order":3150},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":3152,"slug":3153,"category":2442,"order":3150},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3155,"slug":3156,"category":2419,"order":3157},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":3159,"slug":3160,"category":2442,"order":3157},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":3162,"slug":3163,"category":2419,"order":3164},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":3166,"slug":3167,"category":2442,"order":3164},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":3169,"slug":3170,"category":2419,"order":3171},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":3173,"slug":3174,"category":2442,"order":3171},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3176,"slug":3177,"category":2419,"order":3178},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":3180,"slug":3181,"category":2442,"order":3178},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":3183,"slug":3184,"category":2419,"order":3185},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":3187,"slug":3188,"category":2442,"order":3185},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3190,"slug":3191,"category":2419,"order":3192},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":3194,"slug":3195,"category":2442,"order":3192},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":3197,"slug":3198,"category":2419,"order":3199},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":3201,"slug":3202,"category":2442,"order":3199},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":3204,"slug":3205,"category":2419,"order":3206},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":3208,"slug":3209,"category":2442,"order":3206},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3211,"slug":3212,"category":2419,"order":3213},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":3215,"slug":3216,"category":2442,"order":3213},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3218,"slug":3219,"category":2419,"order":3220},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":3222,"slug":3223,"category":2442,"order":3220},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3225,"slug":3226,"category":2419,"order":3227},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":3229,"slug":3230,"category":2442,"order":3227},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":3232,"slug":3233,"category":2442,"order":3234},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":3236,"slug":3237,"category":2442,"order":3238},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":3240,"slug":3241,"category":2442,"order":3242},"巴菲特：2013年 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