[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":4906},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":3370,"library-sidebar-dao":4372,"library-sidebar-models":4674},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":3356,"date":3357,"description":3358,"extension":3359,"meta":3360,"navigation":3361,"order":3362,"path":3363,"seo":3364,"seoDescription":3358,"seoTitle":3365,"slug":3366,"stem":3367,"__hash__":3368,"_collection":3369},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2004 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":3340},"minimark",[9,13,20,24,622,625,628,639,643,648,651,654,657,665,668,671,674,681,684,687,690,693,696,699,702,705,708,711,714,717,720,727,730,733,903,910,913,916,919,926,929,932,935,942,945,950,955,1375,1380,1383,1386,1397,1400,1407,1410,1413,1416,1419,1422,1425,1428,1431,1434,1437,1440,1443,1446,1449,1456,1458,1465,1468,1471,1474,1477,1480,1483,1485,1488,1577,1582,1585,1588,1591,1594,1602,1605,1608,1613,1616,1619,1622,1625,1628,1828,1833,1836,1840,1843,1848,1985,1990,2072,2079,2082,2182,2187,2192,2195,2204,2207,2212,2215,2218,2221,2224,2227,2234,2239,2242,2245,2248,2251,2254,2257,2260,2263,2266,2271,2491,2496,2503,2510,2513,2516,2519,2522,2525,2528,2530,2533,2536,2617,2620,2623,2625,2632,2637,2642,2987,2990,2993,2996,3003,3006,3025,3028,3031,3034,3040,3047,3050,3057,3060,3063,3066,3069,3080,3091,3098,3101,3108,3110,3113,3124,3127,3132,3135,3138,3143,3146,3149,3152,3157,3160,3165,3168,3171,3174,3177,3180,3183,3202,3205,3207,3214,3217,3220,3223,3226,3229,3234,3247,3250,3253,3256,3259,3262,3265,3268,3271,3274,3277,3280,3291,3294,3297,3300,3303,3306,3309,3316,3323,3326,3328,3331,3334,3337],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2004-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"注：以下业绩对比表刊载于年度报告中董事长致辞的对页，并在信中有所引用。",[21,22,23],"h3",{"id":23},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[25,26,27,46],"table",{},[28,29,30],"thead",{},[31,32,33,37,40,43],"tr",{},[34,35,36],"th",{},"年份",[34,38,39],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比 (1)",[34,41,42],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比 (2)",[34,44,45],{},"相对收益 (1)-(2)",[47,48,49,64,78,92,105,119,133,147,161,175,189,203,217,230,244,257,271,285,299,312,326,340,352,365,378,392,406,420,432,446,460,473,487,501,515,529,543,557,570,583,596,609],"tbody",{},[31,50,51,55,58,61],{},[52,53,54],"td",{},"1965",[52,56,57],{},"23.8",[52,59,60],{},"10.0",[52,62,63],{},"13.8",[31,65,66,69,72,75],{},[52,67,68],{},"1966",[52,70,71],{},"20.3",[52,73,74],{},"(11.7)",[52,76,77],{},"32.0",[31,79,80,83,86,89],{},[52,81,82],{},"1967",[52,84,85],{},"11.0",[52,87,88],{},"30.9",[52,90,91],{},"(19.9)",[31,93,94,97,100,102],{},[52,95,96],{},"1968",[52,98,99],{},"19.0",[52,101,85],{},[52,103,104],{},"8.0",[31,106,107,110,113,116],{},[52,108,109],{},"1969",[52,111,112],{},"16.2",[52,114,115],{},"(8.4)",[52,117,118],{},"24.6",[31,120,121,124,127,130],{},[52,122,123],{},"1970",[52,125,126],{},"12.0",[52,128,129],{},"3.9",[52,131,132],{},"8.1",[31,134,135,138,141,144],{},[52,136,137],{},"1971",[52,139,140],{},"16.4",[52,142,143],{},"14.6",[52,145,146],{},"1.8",[31,148,149,152,155,158],{},[52,150,151],{},"1972",[52,153,154],{},"21.7",[52,156,157],{},"18.9",[52,159,160],{},"2.8",[31,162,163,166,169,172],{},[52,164,165],{},"1973",[52,167,168],{},"4.7",[52,170,171],{},"(14.8)",[52,173,174],{},"19.5",[31,176,177,180,183,186],{},[52,178,179],{},"1974",[52,181,182],{},"5.5",[52,184,185],{},"(26.4)",[52,187,188],{},"31.9",[31,190,191,194,197,200],{},[52,192,193],{},"1975",[52,195,196],{},"21.9",[52,198,199],{},"37.2",[52,201,202],{},"(15.3)",[31,204,205,208,211,214],{},[52,206,207],{},"1976",[52,209,210],{},"59.3",[52,212,213],{},"23.6",[52,215,216],{},"35.7",[31,218,219,222,224,227],{},[52,220,221],{},"1977",[52,223,188],{},[52,225,226],{},"(7.4)",[52,228,229],{},"39.3",[31,231,232,235,238,241],{},[52,233,234],{},"1978",[52,236,237],{},"24.0",[52,239,240],{},"6.4",[52,242,243],{},"17.6",[31,245,246,249,251,254],{},[52,247,248],{},"1979",[52,250,216],{},[52,252,253],{},"18.2",[52,255,256],{},"17.5",[31,258,259,262,265,268],{},[52,260,261],{},"1980",[52,263,264],{},"19.3",[52,266,267],{},"32.3",[52,269,270],{},"(13.0)",[31,272,273,276,279,282],{},[52,274,275],{},"1981",[52,277,278],{},"31.4",[52,280,281],{},"(5.0)",[52,283,284],{},"36.4",[31,286,287,290,293,296],{},[52,288,289],{},"1982",[52,291,292],{},"40.0",[52,294,295],{},"21.4",[52,297,298],{},"18.6",[31,300,301,304,306,309],{},[52,302,303],{},"1983",[52,305,267],{},[52,307,308],{},"22.4",[52,310,311],{},"9.9",[31,313,314,317,320,323],{},[52,315,316],{},"1984",[52,318,319],{},"13.6",[52,321,322],{},"6.1",[52,324,325],{},"7.5",[31,327,328,331,334,337],{},[52,329,330],{},"1985",[52,332,333],{},"48.2",[52,335,336],{},"31.6",[52,338,339],{},"16.6",[31,341,342,345,348,350],{},[52,343,344],{},"1986",[52,346,347],{},"26.1",[52,349,298],{},[52,351,325],{},[31,353,354,357,359,362],{},[52,355,356],{},"1987",[52,358,174],{},[52,360,361],{},"5.1",[52,363,364],{},"14.4",[31,366,367,370,373,375],{},[52,368,369],{},"1988",[52,371,372],{},"20.1",[52,374,339],{},[52,376,377],{},"3.5",[31,379,380,383,386,389],{},[52,381,382],{},"1989",[52,384,385],{},"44.4",[52,387,388],{},"31.7",[52,390,391],{},"12.7",[31,393,394,397,400,403],{},[52,395,396],{},"1990",[52,398,399],{},"7.4",[52,401,402],{},"(3.1)",[52,404,405],{},"10.5",[31,407,408,411,414,417],{},[52,409,410],{},"1991",[52,412,413],{},"39.6",[52,415,416],{},"30.5",[52,418,419],{},"9.1",[31,421,422,425,427,430],{},[52,423,424],{},"1992",[52,426,71],{},[52,428,429],{},"7.6",[52,431,391],{},[31,433,434,437,440,443],{},[52,435,436],{},"1993",[52,438,439],{},"14.3",[52,441,442],{},"10.1",[52,444,445],{},"4.2",[31,447,448,451,454,457],{},[52,449,450],{},"1994",[52,452,453],{},"13.9",[52,455,456],{},"1.3",[52,458,459],{},"12.6",[31,461,462,465,468,471],{},[52,463,464],{},"1995",[52,466,467],{},"43.1",[52,469,470],{},"37.6",[52,472,182],{},[31,474,475,478,481,484],{},[52,476,477],{},"1996",[52,479,480],{},"31.8",[52,482,483],{},"23.0",[52,485,486],{},"8.8",[31,488,489,492,495,498],{},[52,490,491],{},"1997",[52,493,494],{},"34.1",[52,496,497],{},"33.4",[52,499,500],{},".7",[31,502,503,506,509,512],{},[52,504,505],{},"1998",[52,507,508],{},"48.3",[52,510,511],{},"28.6",[52,513,514],{},"19.7",[31,516,517,520,523,526],{},[52,518,519],{},"1999",[52,521,522],{},".5",[52,524,525],{},"21.0",[52,527,528],{},"(20.5)",[31,530,531,534,537,540],{},[52,532,533],{},"2000",[52,535,536],{},"6.5",[52,538,539],{},"(9.1)",[52,541,542],{},"15.6",[31,544,545,548,551,554],{},[52,546,547],{},"2001",[52,549,550],{},"(6.2)",[52,552,553],{},"(11.9)",[52,555,556],{},"5.7",[31,558,559,562,564,567],{},[52,560,561],{},"2002",[52,563,60],{},[52,565,566],{},"(22.1)",[52,568,569],{},"32.1",[31,571,572,575,577,580],{},[52,573,574],{},"2003",[52,576,525],{},[52,578,579],{},"28.7",[52,581,582],{},"(7.7)",[31,584,585,588,590,593],{},[52,586,587],{},"2004",[52,589,405],{},[52,591,592],{},"10.9",[52,594,595],{},"(.4)",[31,597,598,601,603,606],{},[52,599,600],{},"1965-2004年年复合增长率",[52,602,196],{},[52,604,605],{},"10.4",[52,607,608],{},"11.5",[31,610,611,614,617,620],{},[52,612,613],{},"1964-2004年累计总收益",[52,615,616],{},"286,865",[52,618,619],{},"5,318",[52,621],{},[14,623,624],{},"注：数据按日历年度统计，以下年份除外：1965年和1966年截至9月30日；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。",[14,626,627],{},"自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司以市价而非此前的成本与市价孰低法计量其持有的权益证券。本表中1978年及以前的伯克希尔数据已按新规则进行了重述。其余数据均沿用最初报告的数字。",[14,629,630,631,634,635,638],{},"标普500指数的数据为",[17,632,633],{},"税前","收益，而伯克希尔的数据为",[17,636,637],{},"税后","收益。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司只是简单地持有标普500指数并计提相应税款，那么在标普500指数正收益的年份，其表现将落后于指数；而在标普500指数负收益的年份，其表现将超越指数。长期累积来看，税负成本将导致相当大的滞后差距。",[21,640,642],{"id":641},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,644,645],{},[17,646,647],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,649,650],{},"2004年，公司净资产增加了83亿美元，A\u002FB股每股账面价值增长10.5%。自现任管理层接手的40年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元成长到目前的55,824美元，年复合增长率约为21.9%。(*)",[14,652,653],{},"(*): 本报告中使用的所有数字均适用于伯克希尔的A股，它是公司在1996年之前唯一流通股的继承者。B股的经济利益为A股的三十分之一。",[14,655,656],{},"然而，真正重要的是每股内在价值，而非账面价值。好消息是，从1964年到2004年，伯克希尔已经从一家摇摇欲坠的北方纺织企业——当时内在价值还不及账面价值——蜕变成一个多元化的大型集团，内在价值远远超过账面价值。因此，40年来我们内在价值的增长幅度其实超过了账面价值21.9%的增长率。（想了解更多关于内在价值以及查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger)——我的合伙人兼伯克希尔副董事长——和我经营伯克希尔的原则，请参阅股东手册，从第73页开始。）",[14,658,659,660,664],{},"尽管有其局限性，年度账面价值的计算对伯克希尔而言仍是衡量内在价值",[661,662,663],"em",{},"长期","增长率一个略偏保守的有效工具。不过，将单一年度的账面价值表现与标普500指数进行对比（见首页对照表），其参考意义已不如从前。我们的股票投资（包括可转换优先股在内）占净资产的比重已大幅下降，比如1980年代平均占114%，而近年已不足50%。因此，股市的年度波动对我们净资产的影响远不如以前那么大。这意味着在股市大幅上涨的年份，我们的表现通常会不如指数；而在股市下跌的年份，我们的表现通常会超越指数。",[14,666,667],{},"无论单一年度的对比结果如何，伯克希尔对标普500的长期表现始终至关重要。我们的股东可以用极低的成本通过指数基金投资标普500。除非未来我们能够以超越标普500的速度积累每股内在价值，否则查理跟我就没有存在的价值。",[14,669,670],{},"去年伯克希尔的账面价值仅增长了10.5%，略低于标普500指数10.9%的回报率。我们平庸的表现与旗下各业务的CEO毫无关系——一如既往，他们承担了超出自身份额的重任。我给他们的指示很简单：请用经营自家百年老店的心态来经营这些业务。他们几乎每个人都照办了，在打理好自家业务的需求之后，把多余的资金送回奥马哈交由我来调配。",[14,672,673],{},"去年是我没做好自己的分内事。我本来希望能谈成几笔数十亿美元的收购，为我们已经相当丰富的收益来源再增添新的重要来源。但我颗粒无收。此外，我也很难找到什么有吸引力的证券可买。就这样，到年底伯克希尔账上积压了430亿美元的现金等价物，这可不是什么让人高兴的局面。查理跟我会在2005年努力把这些闲钱转化成更有意思的资产，不过我们实在不敢打包票。",[14,675,676,677,680],{},"从另一个角度来看，2004年的股市表现倒颇为不同寻常，只是这个事实淹没在第2页的数字迷宫里了。如果你审视自1960年代结束以来的35年，会发现投资者持有标普500（含股息）的年均回报率高达11.2%（远高于我们对未来回报率的预期）。但如果你要找回报率接近这个11.2%的年份——比如在8%到14%之间——你会发现2004年以前只有",[661,678,679],{},"一个","年份符合条件。换句话说，去年看起来”正常”的回报恰恰是反常的。",[14,682,683],{},"过去35年来，美国企业创造了极为出色的业绩。投资者理应轻轻松松地赚到丰厚回报——他们只需要以分散且低成本的方式搭上美国企业的顺风车就行了。买一只指数基金然后什么都不碰，就能达到目的。但实际上，大多数投资者的经历从平庸到惨不忍睹不等。",[14,685,686],{},"这其中有三个主要原因。第一，成本太高，要么是交易过于频繁，要么是在投资管理上花了太多钱。第二，投资决策建立在小道消息和赶时髦的基础上，而非对企业进行深思熟虑的定量分析。第三，在错误的时点进出市场——牛市涨了好久之后才冲进去买，在长期低迷或下跌之后才卖出。投资者应当牢记，兴奋和费用是他们的大敌。如果他们执意要择时进出股市，那就应该努力做到：别人贪婪时恐惧，别人恐惧时贪婪。",[21,688,689],{"id":689},"各部门业绩",[14,691,692],{},"身为管理者，查理跟我设身处地为各位着想，希望提供给大家换位思考后我们自己也想得到的财务信息和评论。随着伯克希尔的业务版图日益庞杂，要兼顾清晰与适度简洁越来越难。我们旗下有些业务的经济特征截然不同，这意味着把所有数字混在一起的合并报表，几乎不可能做出有意义的分析。",[14,694,695],{},"因此，在接下来的篇幅中，我们将分别列示四大业务板块的资产负债表和收益数字，并逐一加以评述。我们尤其希望大家了解我们在什么有限的情况下才会使用负债，因为我们通常是避之不及的。但我们也不会拿一堆对估算伯克希尔内在价值毫无用处的数据来淹没各位。那样做只会模糊真正重要的信息。",[21,697,698],{"id":698},"受管制的公用事业",[14,700,701],{},"我们持有中美能源控股公司 (MidAmerican Energy Holdings) 80.5%的权益（完全稀释），该公司拥有多种公用事业业务。其中最主要的包括：（1）约克郡电力与北方电力公司 (Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric)，拥有370万电力用户，是英国第三大电力分销商；（2）中美能源 (MidAmerican Energy)，主要在爱荷华州服务69.8万电力用户；（3）科恩河管道与北方天然管道 (Kern River and Northern Natural)，运输全美7.9%的天然气消费量。",[14,703,704],{},"剩余19.5%的权益由我们的三位合伙人持有：戴夫·索科尔 (Dave Sokol) 和格雷格·阿贝尔 (Greg Abel)，两位都是这些业务出色的管理者；还有沃尔特·斯科特 (Walter Scott)，我多年的老友，当初就是他把这家公司介绍给我的。由于中美能源受限于《公用事业控股公司法》（PUHCA），伯克希尔的投票权最高只能达到9.9%，控制权由沃尔特持有。",[14,706,707],{},"受限的投票权迫使我们只能以简略的方式入账中美能源的财务数据。我们无法将该公司的资产、负债、收入和费用全部并入伯克希尔的报表，而只能在资产负债表和损益表中各列一行。不过，PUHCA总有一天——也许很快——会被废除，或者会计准则会有所变更。届时伯克希尔的合并报表将纳入中美能源的全部财务数据，包括其大量的负债（当然，这些负债无论现在还是将来，都不是伯克希尔的义务）。",[14,709,710],{},"截至年底，中美能源欠伯克希尔的次级债务为14.78亿美元。这笔借款使得中美能源在进行收购时，我们的合伙人不必追加他们已经相当可观的投资。通过收取11%的利息，伯克希尔获得了合理的回报，而我们的合伙人也避免了股权被稀释。由于中美能源去年没有进行重大收购，所以偿还了欠我们的1亿美元。",[14,712,713],{},"中美能源还拥有一项重要的非公用事业——美国家庭服务公司 (HomeServices of America)，全美第二大房地产经纪商。与公用事业不同，这个行业的周期波动相当大，但我们仍然对此充满热情。我们拥有一位出色的经理人罗恩·佩尔蒂尔 (Ron Peltier)，凭借其收购和经营才能，正在打造一个房地产经纪王国。",[14,715,716],{},"2004年，HomeServices参与了598亿美元的交易，较2003年增长了112亿美元。其中约24%的增长来自年内完成的六笔收购。通过旗下17家经纪公司——全部保留各自的当地品牌——我们在18个州雇用了超过1.8万名经纪人。随着我们继续收购各地的领先经纪公司，HomeServices在未来十年几乎肯定还会大幅增长。",[14,718,719],{},"去年中美能源核销了一项锌回收项目的重大投资。该项目于1998年启动，2002年投入运营。我们在加州地热业务中产生的卤水含有大量的锌，我们相信可以从中获利地提取这种金属。一连好几个月，商业化回收看起来似乎近在眼前。但冶矿这一行，跟石油勘探一样，总是让开发者看到希望又一次次落空。每解决一个问题，另一个又冒了出来。到了9月份，我们终于举白旗投降。",[14,721,722,723,726],{},"我们的这次失败再度印证了一项原则的重要性——",[661,724,725],{},"坚持简单的事情","——我们通常在投资和经营中都遵循这一原则。如果一项决策只取决于一个关键变量，而该变量有90%的成功概率，那么成功的几率显然就是90%。但如果需要十个独立变量同时朝有利方向发展才能成功，每个变量各有90%的概率，那么最终胜出的可能性就只有35%。在锌回收项目上，我们解决了大部分问题。但有一个始终无法攻克，而一个就已经太多了。一根链条不会比其最薄弱的一环更牢固，所以最明智的做法是寻找——请原谅这个矛盾修辞——单环链条。",[14,728,729],{},"下表是中美能源的经营业绩明细。2004年”其他”项下包含一笔7,220万美元的出售安然 (Enron) 应收账款的利润，这笔应收款是两年前我们收购北方天然管道时附带过来的。沃尔特、戴夫和我作为土生土长的奥马哈人，把这笔意外之财视为战争赔款——部分补偿1986年肯·莱 (Ken Lay) 在承诺保留北方天然在本地之后却将其搬到休斯顿，给我们城市造成的损失。（详情请参阅伯克希尔2002年的年报。）",[14,731,732],{},"以下是中美能源的几项重要数据：",[25,734,735,747],{},[28,736,737],{},[31,738,739,741,744],{},[34,740],{},[34,742,743],{},"2004年收益（百万美元）",[34,745,746],{},"2003年收益（百万美元）",[47,748,749,760,771,782,793,804,815,826,837,848,859,870,881,892],{},[31,750,751,754,757],{},[52,752,753],{},"英国电力",[52,755,756],{},"$ 326",[52,758,759],{},"$ 289",[31,761,762,765,768],{},[52,763,764],{},"爱荷华电力",[52,766,767],{},"268",[52,769,770],{},"269",[31,772,773,776,779],{},[52,774,775],{},"管道运输业务",[52,777,778],{},"288",[52,780,781],{},"261",[31,783,784,787,790],{},[52,785,786],{},"家庭服务",[52,788,789],{},"130",[52,791,792],{},"113",[31,794,795,798,801],{},[52,796,797],{},"其他（净额）",[52,799,800],{},"172",[52,802,803],{},"190",[31,805,806,809,812],{},[52,807,808],{},"锌项目亏损",[52,810,811],{},"(579)",[52,813,814],{},"(46)",[31,816,817,820,823],{},[52,818,819],{},"息税前收益",[52,821,822],{},"605",[52,824,825],{},"1,076",[31,827,828,831,834],{},[52,829,830],{},"利息支出——其他企业债务",[52,832,833],{},"(212)",[52,835,836],{},"(225)",[31,838,839,842,845],{},[52,840,841],{},"利息支出——伯克希尔次级债务",[52,843,844],{},"(170)",[52,846,847],{},"(184)",[31,849,850,853,856],{},[52,851,852],{},"所得税",[52,854,855],{},"(53)",[52,857,858],{},"(251)",[31,860,861,864,867],{},[52,862,863],{},"净收益",[52,865,866],{},"$ 170",[52,868,869],{},"$ 416",[31,871,872,875,878],{},[52,873,874],{},"归属于伯克希尔的净收益*",[52,876,877],{},"$ 237",[52,879,880],{},"$ 429",[31,882,883,886,889],{},[52,884,885],{},"应付其他企业债务",[52,887,888],{},"10,528",[52,890,891],{},"10,296",[31,893,894,897,900],{},[52,895,896],{},"应付伯克希尔债务",[52,898,899],{},"1,478",[52,901,902],{},"1,578",[904,905,906],"ul",{},[907,908,909],"li",{},"包含伯克希尔赚取的利息收入（已扣除相关所得税），2004年为1.1亿美元，2003年为1.18亿美元。",[21,911,912],{"id":912},"保险业务",[14,914,915],{},"自从伯克希尔在1967年买下国民保险公司 (National Indemnity, “NICO”) 之后，财产意外险就成了我们的核心业务，也是驱动增长的引擎。保险业为我们提供了源源不断的资金泉源，使我们得以收购那些如今贡献出越来越多样化收益来源的证券和企业。所以在这一部分，我会花点时间告诉大家我们是怎么走到今天这一步的。",[14,917,918],{},"我们保险资金的来源是”浮存金“，这笔钱不属于我们，但暂时由我们代管。我们的浮存金之所以产生，主要有两个原因：（1）保费是预先收取的，而我们提供的服务——保险保障——通常要在之后一年时间内交付；（2）今天发生的损失事件并不总是让我们立即支付理赔金，因为有时损失要在发生后许多年才会被报告（石棉损失就是一个例子），然后还要经历协商和解。我们1967年收购时附带的2,000万美元浮存金，如今已经通过内部增长和外部收购增加到了461亿美元。",[14,920,921,922,925],{},"浮存金是好东西——",[661,923,924],{},"前提是","取得成本不能太高。浮存金的成本取决于承保业绩，也就是我们最终支付的理赔和费用与收取的保费之比。当实现承保盈利时——伯克希尔在从事保险业务的38年中约有一半的年头做到了——浮存金就比免费还好。在这些年份里，别人实际上是付钱请我们帮他们保管资金。然而对大多数保险公司来说，日子就没这么好过了：总体而言，财产意外险行业几乎总是处于承保亏损状态。当亏损很大时，浮存金的成本就变得非常高昂，有时甚至高得令人窒息。",[14,927,928],{},"保险公司之所以普遍回报不佳，原因很简单：他们卖的是同质化的商品。保单格式都是标准化的，产品由许多供应商提供，其中一些是互助制公司（由保户而非股东所有），利润目标有限。而且大多数投保人根本不在乎从谁那里买保险。数以百万计的顾客会说”我要吉列 (Gillette) 刮胡刀”或”给我来杯可乐”，但你绝对等不到有人说”请给我一份国民保险的保单”。因此，保险业的价格竞争通常极为激烈。想想航空公司的机票就明白了。",[14,930,931],{},"那么你也许会问，伯克希尔的保险业务是如何摆脱这个行业的惨淡经济状况，并取得持久竞争优势的呢？我们从多个方面攻克这个难题。首先来看国民保险的策略。",[14,933,934],{},"当我们买下这家公司时——它专做商用车险和一般责任险——看不出有什么特质能克服行业的痼疾。它知名度不高，没有信息优势（公司甚至从来没有过一个精算师），不是低成本运营商，而且通过普通代理商销售，这在当时被很多人视为过时的做法。然而，在过去38年的绝大多数时间里，国民保险都是一颗耀眼的明星。实际上，如果当年我们没有完成这笔收购，伯克希尔今天的价值很可能连现在的一半都不到。",[14,936,937,938,941],{},"我们的法宝是一种大多数保险公司无法复制的管理思维。请看下表。你能想象",[661,939,940],{},"任何","一家上市公司会接受一种导致营收从1986年到1999年持续下滑的商业模式吗？我必须强调，那种大幅下滑并不是因为没有生意可做。只要我们愿意降低价格，数十亿美元的保费唾手可得。但我们始终坚持有利可图的定价，而不是去追随最乐观的竞争对手。我们从未抛弃客户——是客户自己离开了我们。",[14,943,944],{},"大多数美国企业都有一种”制度性惯性”，不能忍受营收的持续下降。哪个CEO愿意告诉股东，不仅去年业务萎缩了，而且还将继续下滑？在保险行业，继续签发保单的冲动更加强烈，因为愚蠢定价保单的后果要过上好一阵子才会显现。如果保险公司在提列准备金时过于乐观，账面收益就会被夸大，可能要等上好几年真实的损失成本才会浮出水面（正是这种自欺欺人的把戏让盖可保险 (GEICO) 在1970年代差点倒闭）。",[14,946,947],{},[17,948,949],{},"严谨的承保人画像",[14,951,952],{},[17,953,954],{},"国民保险公司",[25,956,957,975],{},[28,958,959],{},[31,960,961,963,966,969,972],{},[34,962,36],{},[34,964,965],{},"保费收入（百万美元）",[34,967,968],{},"年末雇员数",[34,970,971],{},"承保费用率",[34,973,974],{},"承保利润率（截至2004年底）*",[47,976,977,993,1009,1025,1041,1057,1073,1089,1105,1121,1137,1153,1169,1185,1200,1216,1232,1248,1264,1279,1295,1311,1327,1343,1359],{},[31,978,979,981,984,987,990],{},[52,980,261],{},[52,982,983],{},"$ 79.6",[52,985,986],{},"372",[52,988,989],{},"32.3%",[52,991,992],{},"8.2%",[31,994,995,997,1000,1003,1006],{},[52,996,275],{},[52,998,999],{},"59.9",[52,1001,1002],{},"353",[52,1004,1005],{},"36.1%",[52,1007,1008],{},"(.8%)",[31,1010,1011,1013,1016,1019,1022],{},[52,1012,289],{},[52,1014,1015],{},"52.5",[52,1017,1018],{},"323",[52,1020,1021],{},"36.7%",[52,1023,1024],{},"(15.3%)",[31,1026,1027,1029,1032,1035,1038],{},[52,1028,303],{},[52,1030,1031],{},"58.2",[52,1033,1034],{},"308",[52,1036,1037],{},"35.6%",[52,1039,1040],{},"(18.7%)",[31,1042,1043,1045,1048,1051,1054],{},[52,1044,316],{},[52,1046,1047],{},"62.2",[52,1049,1050],{},"342",[52,1052,1053],{},"35.5%",[52,1055,1056],{},"(17.0%)",[31,1058,1059,1061,1064,1067,1070],{},[52,1060,330],{},[52,1062,1063],{},"160.7",[52,1065,1066],{},"380",[52,1068,1069],{},"28.0%",[52,1071,1072],{},"1.9%",[31,1074,1075,1077,1080,1083,1086],{},[52,1076,344],{},[52,1078,1079],{},"366.2",[52,1081,1082],{},"403",[52,1084,1085],{},"25.9%",[52,1087,1088],{},"30.7%",[31,1090,1091,1093,1096,1099,1102],{},[52,1092,356],{},[52,1094,1095],{},"232.3",[52,1097,1098],{},"368",[52,1100,1101],{},"29.5%",[52,1103,1104],{},"27.3%",[31,1106,1107,1109,1112,1115,1118],{},[52,1108,369],{},[52,1110,1111],{},"139.9",[52,1113,1114],{},"347",[52,1116,1117],{},"31.7%",[52,1119,1120],{},"24.8%",[31,1122,1123,1125,1128,1131,1134],{},[52,1124,382],{},[52,1126,1127],{},"98.4",[52,1129,1130],{},"320",[52,1132,1133],{},"35.9%",[52,1135,1136],{},"14.8%",[31,1138,1139,1141,1144,1147,1150],{},[52,1140,396],{},[52,1142,1143],{},"87.8",[52,1145,1146],{},"289",[52,1148,1149],{},"37.4%",[52,1151,1152],{},"7.0%",[31,1154,1155,1157,1160,1163,1166],{},[52,1156,410],{},[52,1158,1159],{},"88.3",[52,1161,1162],{},"284",[52,1164,1165],{},"35.7%",[52,1167,1168],{},"13.0%",[31,1170,1171,1173,1176,1179,1182],{},[52,1172,424],{},[52,1174,1175],{},"82.7",[52,1177,1178],{},"277",[52,1180,1181],{},"37.9%",[52,1183,1184],{},"5.2%",[31,1186,1187,1189,1192,1195,1197],{},[52,1188,436],{},[52,1190,1191],{},"86.8",[52,1193,1194],{},"279",[52,1196,1005],{},[52,1198,1199],{},"11.3%",[31,1201,1202,1204,1207,1210,1213],{},[52,1203,450],{},[52,1205,1206],{},"85.9",[52,1208,1209],{},"263",[52,1211,1212],{},"34.6%",[52,1214,1215],{},"4.6%",[31,1217,1218,1220,1223,1226,1229],{},[52,1219,464],{},[52,1221,1222],{},"78.0",[52,1224,1225],{},"258",[52,1227,1228],{},"36.6%",[52,1230,1231],{},"9.2%",[31,1233,1234,1236,1239,1242,1245],{},[52,1235,477],{},[52,1237,1238],{},"74.0",[52,1240,1241],{},"243",[52,1243,1244],{},"36.5%",[52,1246,1247],{},"6.8%",[31,1249,1250,1252,1255,1258,1261],{},[52,1251,491],{},[52,1253,1254],{},"65.3",[52,1256,1257],{},"240",[52,1259,1260],{},"40.4%",[52,1262,1263],{},"6.2%",[31,1265,1266,1268,1271,1274,1276],{},[52,1267,505],{},[52,1269,1270],{},"56.8",[52,1272,1273],{},"231",[52,1275,1260],{},[52,1277,1278],{},"9.4%",[31,1280,1281,1283,1286,1289,1292],{},[52,1282,519],{},[52,1284,1285],{},"54.5",[52,1287,1288],{},"222",[52,1290,1291],{},"41.2%",[52,1293,1294],{},"4.5%",[31,1296,1297,1299,1302,1305,1308],{},[52,1298,533],{},[52,1300,1301],{},"68.1",[52,1303,1304],{},"230",[52,1306,1307],{},"38.4%",[52,1309,1310],{},"2.9%",[31,1312,1313,1315,1318,1321,1324],{},[52,1314,547],{},[52,1316,1317],{},"161.3",[52,1319,1320],{},"254",[52,1322,1323],{},"28.8%",[52,1325,1326],{},"(11.6%)",[31,1328,1329,1331,1334,1337,1340],{},[52,1330,561],{},[52,1332,1333],{},"343.5",[52,1335,1336],{},"313",[52,1338,1339],{},"24.0%",[52,1341,1342],{},"16.8%",[31,1344,1345,1347,1350,1353,1356],{},[52,1346,574],{},[52,1348,1349],{},"594.5",[52,1351,1352],{},"337",[52,1354,1355],{},"22.2%",[52,1357,1358],{},"18.1%",[31,1360,1361,1363,1366,1369,1372],{},[52,1362,587],{},[52,1364,1365],{},"605.6",[52,1367,1368],{},"340",[52,1370,1371],{},"22.5%",[52,1373,1374],{},"5.1%",[904,1376,1377],{},[907,1378,1379],{},"要了解特定年度的真实盈利情况，通常需要很长一段时间。首先，很多理赔申请在年底之后才会提交，我们必须估计这些申请的数量和金额。（用保险术语说，这些叫做IBNR——已发生但尚未报告的索赔。）其次，索赔往往需要数年甚至数十年才能和解，这意味着其间会出现很多变数。",[14,1381,1382],{},"因此，本栏的数字仅代表我们在2004年底对往年业绩的最佳估计。截至1999年的各年度利润率应该比较接近实际，因为这些年度已经”成熟”，即尚未结案的索赔已所剩无几。年份越近，猜测的成分就越大。尤其是2003年和2004年的数字，日后很可能会有重大变化。",[14,1384,1385],{},"最后，还有一个恐惧因素在起作用——业务萎缩通常意味着裁员。为了保住饭碗，员工会为不当的定价找理由，告诉自己低价接单是为了维持组织的完整和分销渠道的满意度。如果不这样做，员工们会争辩说，一旦景气回暖——他们总觉得转角就是春天——公司将无法参与复苏。",[14,1387,1388,1389,1392,1393,1396],{},"为了抵消员工这种自保的天性，我们始终向国民保险的员工承诺，",[661,1390,1391],{},"没有人","会因为业务下滑而被解雇，不管萎缩多么严重。（这里可不是唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 那种地方。）国民保险不是劳力密集型企业，如上表所示，它能承受额外的管理费用。但它承受不了不当的定价以及随之而来的承保纪律崩坏。一家今年不把承保盈利放在心上的保险公司，",[661,1394,1395],{},"明年","也不会在乎。",[14,1398,1399],{},"当然，实行不裁员政策的企业，在景气好的时候就必须格外注意避免人员冗余。30年前，时任大都会 (Cap Cities) CEO的汤姆·墨菲 (Tom Murphy) 用一个假想的小故事向我阐明了这一点。话说有位员工向老板申请增聘一名助手。这位员工觉得每年多花2万美元的薪水不算什么。但他的老板告诉他，考虑到加薪、福利和其他开支（人多了，厕纸也得多买），一个员工终其一生的成本至少要300万美元，应该把这当成一个300万美元的决策来看待。而且除非公司真的快撑不下去了，这个新增的人手恐怕很难被辞退，不管他对公司的贡献有多微薄。",[14,1401,1402,1403,1406],{},"要让国民保险这样运营，需要深植于企业文化中的真正魄力。翻看上面这张表，你可以一眨眼扫过1986年到1999年那些年份。但日复一日地眼看着业务缩水——而竞争对手们在大吹大擂自己的增长、赢得华尔街的掌声——这种煎熬很少有经理人能扛得住。然而，国民保险自1940年成立以来的四任CEO却",[661,1404,1405],{},"无一","屈服。（值得一提的是，这四位CEO中只有一位念过大学。经验告诉我们，非凡的商业才能大多是天生的。）",[14,1408,1409],{},"国民保险现任的管理明星——不，应该说是超级巨星——是唐·沃斯特 (Don Wurster)（没错，上大学的就是他），自1989年起执掌公司。他的长打率堪比巴里·邦兹 (Barry Bonds)（棒球巨星），因为跟巴里一样，唐宁可选择保送也不会对着烂球挥棒。目前唐已经为国民保险积累了9.5亿美元的浮存金，而且几乎可以肯定，长期来看这是负成本的浮存金。由于保费价格正在下降，唐的业务量很快将大幅下滑，而随着它的下滑，查理跟我只会越来越大声地为他喝彩。",[1411,1412],"hr",{},[14,1414,1415],{},"在同质化产品行业中取得成功的另一条路是成为低成本运营者。在大型汽车保险公司中，盖可保险 (GEICO) 毫无疑问地摘得了这顶桂冠。对国民保险而言，如我们所见，潮起潮落的商业模式是合理的。但拥有低成本优势的公司必须奉行永不松懈的油门到底的策略。而这正是我们在GEICO所做的。",[14,1417,1418],{},"一百年前，当汽车刚问世的时候，财产意外险行业是以卡特尔的方式运作的。大多数位于东北部的主要公司制定了统一的”费率局”价格，就这么定了。没有人通过降价来争抢生意。相反，保险公司争相笼络实力强大、信誉良好的代理商，此举导致了代理商的高额佣金和消费者的高昂保费。",[14,1420,1421],{},"1922年，乔治·梅切尔 (George Mecherle)——伊利诺伊州梅尔纳市的一个农场主——创立了州立农业保险公司 (State Farm)，旨在打破行业高成本巨头维持的价格保护伞。州立农业保险采用了”专属”代理人团队，其获客成本远低于费率局体系下的保险公司（那些公司的”独立”代理商擅长让各家保险公司互相竞价）。凭借低成本结构，州立农业保险最终拿下了约25%的个人险种（车险和住宅险）市场份额，远远甩开了昔日强大的对手。好事达保险 (Allstate) 成立于1931年，也建立了类似的营销体系，很快成为个人险种市场的老二，仅次于州立农业保险。资本主义再度施展了它的魔力，这些低成本运营者看起来已势不可挡。",[14,1423,1424],{},"但有一个叫利奥·古德温 (Leo Goodwin) 的人构想了一种效率更高的汽车保险模式，并在1936年以仅仅20万美元创立了GEICO。古德温的计划是彻底取消代理商，直接与车主打交道。他心想，汽车保险既是强制性的又很昂贵，为什么分销环节中一定要有不必要且昂贵的中间人呢？他认为企业保险的客户或许需要专业建议，但大多数消费者完全清楚自己在车险保单上需要什么。这在当时是一个极其深刻的洞见。",[14,1426,1427],{},"起初，GEICO把低价讯息邮寄给有限的政府公务员群体。后来，它拓宽了视野，把营销重心转向电话，通过广播和平面广告引来的咨询进行销售。而如今，互联网渠道正在异军突起。",[14,1429,1430],{},"从1936年到1975年，GEICO从白手起家发展到4%的市场份额，成为全美第四大汽车保险公司。在这段时期的大部分时间里，公司管理得极为出色，实现了出色的业务增长和高额利润。看起来势不可挡。但在我的朋友和偶像洛里默·戴维森 (Lorimer Davidson) 于1970年退任CEO之后，他的继任者们很快犯了一个大错——损失准备金提列严重不足。这导致了错误的成本信息，进而导致了不当的定价。到1976年，GEICO已濒临倒闭。",[14,1432,1433],{},"杰克·伯恩 (Jack Byrne) 随后加入GEICO担任CEO，几乎凭一己之力，通过包括大幅涨价在内的英勇努力挽救了公司。虽然这些举措是GEICO存活下去的必要之举，但保户却纷纷出走，到1980年其市场份额跌至1.8%。此后，公司又进行了一些不明智的多元化尝试。这种偏离核心业务的做法阻碍了GEICO的增长，到1993年市场份额仅微增到1.9%。然后托尼·奈斯利 (Tony Nicely) 接手了。",[14,1435,1436],{},"这可真是天壤之别：2005年GEICO的市场份额很可能会达到6%。更妙的是，托尼在增长的同时保持了盈利能力。事实上，GEICO给它的所有参与方都带来了显著的好处：2004年GEICO为保户节省了大约10亿美元的保费支出，员工获得了1.91亿美元的利润分享奖金——平均占工资的24.3%，而它的股东——也就是我们——则享受到了优异的财务回报。",[14,1438,1439],{},"好消息还不止这些。当杰克·伯恩在1976年拯救公司时，新泽西州拒绝批准他盈利所需的费率。他立刻——也完全正确地——撤出了该州。此后，GEICO一直回避新泽西和马萨诸塞两个州，认定它们是保险公司注定要吃苦头的地方。",[14,1441,1442],{},"然而到了2003年，新泽西州终于正视其由来已久的车险问题，通过立法遏制欺诈行为并为保险公司提供公平的竞争环境。即便如此，人们还是预期该州的官僚作风会让改革缓慢而艰难。",[14,1444,1445],{},"结果恰恰相反。新泽西州保险专员霍莉·巴克 (Holly Bakke) 是一位干哪行都会出色的人才，她决心把法律的精神变为现实。在她团队的配合下，GEICO敲定了重返该州的所有细节，并于去年8月获得了营业执照。从那以后，新泽西驾车者的响应程度是我预期的好几倍。",[14,1447,1448],{},"我们目前服务14万名保户——约占新泽西市场的4%——为他们节省了可观的保费（正如我们为各地的驾车者所做的一样）。口碑推荐让咨询电话如潮水般涌来。而且据报告，我们在该州的成交率——即签发保单数与收到咨询数之比——远高于全国平均水平。",[14,1450,1451,1452,1455],{},"当然，我们并不宣称能为",[661,1453,1454],{},"所有人","省钱。有些公司采用与我们不同的评级体系，可能会为某些类别的驾车者提供更低的费率。但我们相信，在服务全部公众群体的全国性保险公司中，GEICO提供最低价格的频率高于任何其他公司。此外，在大多数州（包括新泽西），伯克希尔股东可享受8%的折扣。所以花上15分钟，去GEICO.com看看——或者打电话800-847-7536——看看你能不能省下一大笔钱（当然，省下来的钱你可以用来购买伯克希尔的其他产品）。",[1411,1457],{},[14,1459,1460,1461,1464],{},"再保险——卖给其他保险公司、帮助它们分散风险的保险——",[661,1462,1463],{},"不应该","是同质化的商品产品。说到底，任何保险保单不过就是一个承诺，而大家都知道，承诺的质量千差万别。",[14,1466,1467],{},"在直保层面，做出承诺的是谁往往不太紧要。以个人险种为例，各州会向经营正常的保险公司征收分摊金，用来赔付那些破产公司的保户。在商业险领域，工伤赔偿保险也有类似的安排。这类受保护的保单约占财产意外险行业保费的60%。经营稳健的保险公司对于被迫补贴那些管理不善或鲁莽经营的同行深感不满，但这个行业的规矩就是如此。",[14,1469,1470],{},"其他形式的直保商业险涉及的承诺对投保人有更大的风险。比如当信实保险 (Reliance Insurance) 和家庭保险 (Home Insurance) 被搞垮的时候，它们的承诺被证明一文不值。因此，许多持有其商业保单（工伤赔偿险除外）的客户蒙受了惨痛的损失。",[14,1472,1473],{},"但直保保单中的偿付风险，与再保险保单中潜藏的风险比起来根本不值一提。当一家再保险公司破产时，与其合作的直保公司几乎总会遭受巨额损失。这个风险绝不容小觑：GEICO在1980年代初期就曾因为选择再保险公司不当而蒙受了数千万美元的损失。",[14,1475,1476],{},"如果未来一二十年内发生一场真正的超级大灾难——这完全有可能——一些再保险公司将无法幸免。迄今为止最大的保险损失是世贸中心灾难，估计给保险业造成了350亿美元的损失。1992年的安德鲁飓风给保险业造成了约155亿美元的损失（以今天的币值计算会高出许多）。这两场灾难都震撼了整个保险和再保险世界。但如果一场特别猛烈的大地震或飓风恰好袭击了最糟糕的地方，1,000亿美元甚至更大的灾害损失并非没有可能。2004年有四场大飓风袭击了佛罗里达，合计造成了约250亿美元的保险损失。其中两场——查理 (Charley) 和伊万 (Ivan)——如果登陆地点稍有偏差，造成的损失至少会是实际的三倍。",[14,1478,1479],{},"许多保险公司认为1,000亿美元的行业损失”不可想象”，根本不会为此做任何准备。但在伯克希尔，我们早已未雨绸缪。我们承担的损失份额大概在3%到5%之间，而我们每年从投资和其他业务获得的收益将轻松覆盖这些损失。“劫后余生”那一天真的来临时，伯克希尔开出的支票照样能兑现。",[14,1481,1482],{},"虽然飓风给我们带来了12.5亿美元的损失，但我们的再保险业务去年总体表现不俗。在通用再保险 (General Re)，乔·布兰登 (Joe Brandon) 恢复了这家公司长期以来引以为豪的承保纪律文化——此前一度偏离了轨道。然而，他在2004年当年业务上取得的优异业绩，被他接手之前遗留下来的不利发展所抵消。在国民保险的再保险业务方面，阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 继续成功地承保其他再保险公司不愿或无力承接的巨额风险。阿吉特对伯克希尔的价值不可估量。",[1411,1484],{},[14,1486,1487],{},"我们的保险业务经理人将我在本节提到的竞争优势发挥到了极致，去年再度交出了一流的承保业绩。因此，我们的浮存金依然比免费还好。以下是他们的成绩单：",[25,1489,1490,1505],{},[28,1491,1492],{},[31,1493,1494,1496,1499,1502],{},[34,1495,912],{},[34,1497,1498],{},"2004年承保利润（百万美元）",[34,1500,1501],{},"2004年末浮存金（百万美元）",[34,1503,1504],{},"2003年末浮存金（百万美元）",[47,1506,1507,1521,1535,1549,1563],{},[31,1508,1509,1512,1515,1518],{},[52,1510,1511],{},"通用再保险",[52,1513,1514],{},"$ 3",[52,1516,1517],{},"$ 23,120",[52,1519,1520],{},"$ 23,654",[31,1522,1523,1526,1529,1532],{},[52,1524,1525],{},"伯克希尔再保险",[52,1527,1528],{},"417",[52,1530,1531],{},"15,278",[52,1533,1534],{},"13,948",[31,1536,1537,1540,1543,1546],{},[52,1538,1539],{},"盖可保险",[52,1541,1542],{},"970",[52,1544,1545],{},"5,960",[52,1547,1548],{},"5,287",[31,1550,1551,1554,1557,1560],{},[52,1552,1553],{},"其他直保*",[52,1555,1556],{},"161",[52,1558,1559],{},"1,736",[52,1561,1562],{},"1,331",[31,1564,1565,1568,1571,1574],{},[52,1566,1567],{},"合计",[52,1569,1570],{},"$ 1,551",[52,1572,1573],{},"$ 46,094",[52,1575,1576],{},"$ 44,220",[904,1578,1579],{},[907,1580,1581],{},"除国民保险外，还包括罗德·埃尔德雷德 (Rod Eldred)、约翰·基泽尔 (John Kizer)、汤姆·纳尼 (Tom Nerney) 和唐·托尔 (Don Towle) 经营的其他多项出色的保险业务。",[14,1583,1584],{},"2004年伯克希尔的浮存金增加了19亿美元，尽管有少数客户选择解约（即终止）某些再保险合同。我们只在判断对我们有利的条件下才同意解约（同时充分考虑退回资金后未来可能减少的投资收益）。",[14,1586,1587],{},"总结一下，去年我们因保管平均约452亿美元的资金而额外获得了超过15亿美元的回报。2005年的市场定价将不如过去那么有吸引力。尽管如此，只要不发生超级大灾难，我们今年仍有不错的机会再次实现无成本的浮存金。",[21,1589,1590],{"id":1590},"金融与金融产品",[14,1592,1593],{},"去年在这一部分我们讨论了五花八门的业务。今年我们略过几项已不太重要的：Berkadia已接近尾声；Value Capital引入了其他投资者，不再需要并入我们的报表；而我个人负责的交易业务也在持续收缩。",[904,1595,1596,1599],{},[907,1597,1598],{},"伯克希尔旗下的两项租赁业务去年都有所回升。CORT（办公家具租赁）的收益仍不理想，但趋势在好转。XTRA处置了集装箱和联运业务，专注于其长项——拖车租赁。在新任CEO比尔·弗兰兹 (Bill Franz) 的领导下，管理费用降低了，资产利用率提高了，已经开始实现不错的利润。",[907,1600,1601],{},"通用再保险证券 (Gen Re Securities) 的清盘仍在进行中。三年前我们决定退出这项衍生品业务，但退出说起来容易做起来难。尽管衍生品工具号称流动性极高——而且我们在清算过程中还赶上了温和的市场环境——但截至年底我们仍有2,890份合约未了结，而高峰时是23,218份。就像地狱一样，衍生品交易易进难出。（当然还有很多别的相似之处。）",[14,1603,1604],{},"通用再保险证券的衍生品合约一直被要求按市值计价，我也相信公司管理层已尽心尽力地做出了切合实际的”估值”。但在一个交易结算有时要等几十年、往往还涉及多个变量的世界里，衍生品的市场价格可能非常模糊。在此期间，这些估值影响着每年发放的管理层和交易员奖金。虚幻的利润满天飞也就不足为奇了。",[14,1606,1607],{},"投资者应当明白，在各类金融机构中，快速增长有时会掩盖严重的深层问题（偶尔还有欺诈）。检验衍生品业务真正盈利能力的方法，是看它在零增长的状态下运营一段较长时间后的表现。只有等退潮了，你才知道谁在裸泳。",[904,1609,1610],{},[907,1611,1612],{},"历经40年，我们终于在伯克希尔看到了一丁点协同效应：克莱顿房屋 (Clayton Homes) 表现相当不错，部分原因要归功于与伯克希尔的关联。预制房屋行业仍住在美国企业的重症监护室里——去年新屋销售不足13.5万套，与2003年大致持平。这是1962年以来的最低水平，也仅相当于1995-1999年间年销量的40%左右。那个年代，在不负责任的融资和天真的资金提供方的推波助澜下，是这个行业的黄粱美梦。",[14,1614,1615],{},"由于主要的贷款机构一个接一个地撤离，融资问题继续困扰着预制房屋的制造商、零售商和购房者。在这方面，伯克希尔的支持对克莱顿大有裨益。只要合理，我们随时准备提供资金，而去年克莱顿的管理层找到了很多合格的项目。",[14,1617,1618],{},"正如我们在2003年年报中解释的，我们相信用借来的钱支撑可获利息的应收款是明智之举。去年初，我们借了20亿美元转借给克莱顿（加收一个百分点的利差），到2005年1月总额已达73.5亿美元。新增的大部分借款是我们在2005年1月4日借入的，用于资助克莱顿在2004年12月30日从一家退出该业务的银行手中购买的一批成熟的应收款组合。",[14,1620,1621],{},"目前还有另外两笔应收款组合收购正在洽谈中，总额约16亿美元，但我们不太可能再有其他大笔交易了。因此，克莱顿的应收款规模（新增金额大致会被还款所抵消）可能会在90亿美元左右维持一段时间，并持续贡献稳定的收益。这与过去的模式截然不同——过去克莱顿和所有同行一样，把应收款证券化，导致收益提前实现。过去两年里，证券化市场几乎停摆。今天能拿到的有限资金不仅利率更高，条款也更苛刻。如果克莱顿在这段时期仍然单打独斗，在融资难题的困扰下，它的收益将相当惨淡。",[14,1623,1624],{},"去年4月，克莱顿完成了对奥克伍德房屋 (Oakwood Homes) 的收购，一举成为行业最大的预制房屋制造商和零售商。我们乐意把更多资源交到凯文·克莱顿 (Kevin Clayton) 手中，他是这家公司的CEO，一位典型的伯克希尔式经理人。目前克莱顿拥有11,837名员工，而我们收购时只有7,136人。查理跟我很高兴伯克希尔能够助力这种增长。",[14,1626,1627],{},"为了简化起见，我们把克莱顿的所有收益都归入此板块，尽管其中有相当一部分并非来自消费金融。",[25,1629,1630,1649],{},[28,1631,1632],{},[31,1633,1634,1637,1640,1643,1646],{},[34,1635,1636],{},"（百万美元）",[34,1638,1639],{},"2004年税前收益",[34,1641,1642],{},"2003年税前收益",[34,1644,1645],{},"2004年有息负债",[34,1647,1648],{},"2003年有息负债",[47,1650,1651,1668,1685,1702,1718,1735,1752,1769,1784,1799,1814],{},[31,1652,1653,1656,1659,1662,1665],{},[52,1654,1655],{},"交易——经常性收入",[52,1657,1658],{},"$ 264",[52,1660,1661],{},"$ 355",[52,1663,1664],{},"$ 5,751",[52,1666,1667],{},"$ 7,826",[31,1669,1670,1673,1676,1679,1682],{},[52,1671,1672],{},"通用再保险证券",[52,1674,1675],{},"(44)",[52,1677,1678],{},"(99)",[52,1680,1681],{},"5,437*",[52,1683,1684],{},"8,041*",[31,1686,1687,1690,1693,1696,1699],{},[52,1688,1689],{},"人寿及年金业务",[52,1691,1692],{},"(57)",[52,1694,1695],{},"85",[52,1697,1698],{},"2,467",[52,1700,1701],{},"2,331",[31,1703,1704,1707,1710,1713,1716],{},[52,1705,1706],{},"价值资本 (Value Capital)",[52,1708,1709],{},"30",[52,1711,1712],{},"31",[52,1714,1715],{},"N\u002FA",[52,1717,1715],{},[31,1719,1720,1723,1726,1729,1732],{},[52,1721,1722],{},"Berkadia",[52,1724,1725],{},"1",[52,1727,1728],{},"101",[52,1730,1731],{},"–",[52,1733,1734],{},"525",[31,1736,1737,1740,1743,1746,1749],{},[52,1738,1739],{},"租赁业务",[52,1741,1742],{},"92",[52,1744,1745],{},"34",[52,1747,1748],{},"391",[52,1750,1751],{},"482",[31,1753,1754,1757,1760,1763,1766],{},[52,1755,1756],{},"预制房屋金融（克莱顿）",[52,1758,1759],{},"220",[52,1761,1762],{},"37**",[52,1764,1765],{},"3,636",[52,1767,1768],{},"2,032",[31,1770,1771,1774,1777,1780,1782],{},[52,1772,1773],{},"其他",[52,1775,1776],{},"78",[52,1778,1779],{},"75",[52,1781,1715],{},[52,1783,1715],{},[31,1785,1786,1789,1792,1795,1797],{},[52,1787,1788],{},"资本利得前收益合计",[52,1790,1791],{},"584",[52,1793,1794],{},"619",[52,1796],{},[52,1798],{},[31,1800,1801,1804,1807,1810,1812],{},[52,1802,1803],{},"交易——资本利得",[52,1805,1806],{},"1,750",[52,1808,1809],{},"1,215",[52,1811],{},[52,1813],{},[31,1815,1816,1818,1821,1824,1826],{},[52,1817,1567],{},[52,1819,1820],{},"$ 2,334",[52,1822,1823],{},"$ 1,834",[52,1825],{},[52,1827],{},[904,1829,1830],{},[907,1831,1832],{},"包含所有负债",[14,1834,1835],{},"** 自收购日2003年8月7日起",[21,1837,1839],{"id":1838},"制造服务与零售业务","制造、服务与零售业务",[14,1841,1842],{},"这个板块涵盖的业务范围极广。让我们直接来看把所有业务合并后的资产负债表和损益表。",[14,1844,1845],{},[17,1846,1847],{},"资产负债表 2004年12月31日（百万美元）",[25,1849,1850,1865],{},[28,1851,1852],{},[31,1853,1854,1857,1860,1863],{},[34,1855,1856],{},"资产",[34,1858,1859],{},"金额",[34,1861,1862],{},"负债和权益",[34,1864,1859],{},[47,1866,1867,1881,1893,1905,1918,1932,1946,1960,1974],{},[31,1868,1869,1872,1875,1878],{},[52,1870,1871],{},"现金及等价物",[52,1873,1874],{},"$ 899",[52,1876,1877],{},"应付票据",[52,1879,1880],{},"$ 1,143",[31,1882,1883,1886,1889,1891],{},[52,1884,1885],{},"应收账款和应收票据",[52,1887,1888],{},"3,074",[52,1890],{},[52,1892],{},[31,1894,1895,1898,1901,1903],{},[52,1896,1897],{},"存货",[52,1899,1900],{},"3,842",[52,1902],{},[52,1904],{},[31,1906,1907,1910,1912,1915],{},[52,1908,1909],{},"其他流动资产",[52,1911,1320],{},[52,1913,1914],{},"其他流动负债",[52,1916,1917],{},"4,685",[31,1919,1920,1923,1926,1929],{},[52,1921,1922],{},"流动资产合计",[52,1924,1925],{},"8,069",[52,1927,1928],{},"流动负债合计",[52,1930,1931],{},"5,828",[31,1933,1934,1937,1940,1943],{},[52,1935,1936],{},"商誉及无形资产",[52,1938,1939],{},"8,362",[52,1941,1942],{},"递延所得税",[52,1944,1945],{},"248",[31,1947,1948,1951,1954,1957],{},[52,1949,1950],{},"固定资产",[52,1952,1953],{},"6,161",[52,1955,1956],{},"长期负债及其他负债",[52,1958,1959],{},"1,965",[31,1961,1962,1965,1968,1971],{},[52,1963,1964],{},"其他资产",[52,1966,1967],{},"1,044",[52,1969,1970],{},"所有者权益",[52,1972,1973],{},"15,595",[31,1975,1976,1978,1981,1983],{},[52,1977],{},[52,1979,1980],{},"$ 23,636",[52,1982],{},[52,1984,1980],{},[14,1986,1987],{},[17,1988,1989],{},"损益表（百万美元）",[25,1991,1992,2005],{},[28,1993,1994],{},[31,1995,1996,1999,2002],{},[34,1997,1998],{},"科目",[34,2000,2001],{},"2004年",[34,2003,2004],{},"2003年",[47,2006,2007,2018,2029,2040,2051,2061],{},[31,2008,2009,2012,2015],{},[52,2010,2011],{},"收入",[52,2013,2014],{},"$ 44,142",[52,2016,2017],{},"$ 32,106",[31,2019,2020,2023,2026],{},[52,2021,2022],{},"营业费用（其中折旧费用：2004年6.76亿美元，2003年6.05亿美元）",[52,2024,2025],{},"41,604",[52,2027,2028],{},"29,885",[31,2030,2031,2034,2037],{},[52,2032,2033],{},"净利息费用",[52,2035,2036],{},"57",[52,2038,2039],{},"64",[31,2041,2042,2045,2048],{},[52,2043,2044],{},"税前利润",[52,2046,2047],{},"2,481",[52,2049,2050],{},"2,157",[31,2052,2053,2055,2058],{},[52,2054,852],{},[52,2056,2057],{},"941",[52,2059,2060],{},"813",[31,2062,2063,2066,2069],{},[52,2064,2065],{},"净利润",[52,2067,2068],{},"$ 1,540",[52,2070,2071],{},"$ 1,344",[14,2073,2074,2075,2078],{},"这些精挑细选的企业，卖的产品从冰激凌到波音737客机的部分所有权，应有尽有。去年平均有形净资产回报率高达21.7%，高于2003年的20.7%。尤其值得一提的是，这些业务在取得如此回报时几乎没有使用财务杠杆。我们拥有的确实是一批优秀的企业。不过，我们收购其中很多企业时付出了远高于净资产的溢价——这反映在资产负债表上的商誉科目中——这使得我们按平均",[661,2076,2077],{},"账面","价值计算的回报率降至9.9%。",[14,2080,2081],{},"以下是主要业务类别或部门的税前收益：",[25,2083,2084,2094],{},[28,2085,2086],{},[31,2087,2088,2090,2092],{},[34,2089,1636],{},[34,2091,1639],{},[34,2093,1642],{},[47,2095,2096,2107,2118,2128,2139,2150,2161,2172],{},[31,2097,2098,2101,2104],{},[52,2099,2100],{},"建筑产品",[52,2102,2103],{},"$ 643",[52,2105,2106],{},"$ 559",[31,2108,2109,2112,2115],{},[52,2110,2111],{},"Shaw地毯",[52,2113,2114],{},"466",[52,2116,2117],{},"436",[31,2119,2120,2123,2126],{},[52,2121,2122],{},"服装鞋类",[52,2124,2125],{},"325",[52,2127,1146],{},[31,2129,2130,2133,2136],{},[52,2131,2132],{},"珠宝、家具及糖果零售",[52,2134,2135],{},"215",[52,2137,2138],{},"224",[31,2140,2141,2144,2147],{},[52,2142,2143],{},"航空服务",[52,2145,2146],{},"191",[52,2148,2149],{},"72",[31,2151,2152,2155,2158],{},[52,2153,2154],{},"麦克莱恩 (McLane)",[52,2156,2157],{},"228",[52,2159,2160],{},"150*",[31,2162,2163,2166,2169],{},[52,2164,2165],{},"其他业务",[52,2167,2168],{},"413",[52,2170,2171],{},"427",[31,2173,2174,2176,2179],{},[52,2175],{},[52,2177,2178],{},"$ 2,481",[52,2180,2181],{},"$ 2,157",[904,2183,2184],{},[907,2185,2186],{},"麦克莱恩自收购日2003年5月23日起。",[904,2188,2189],{},[907,2190,2191],{},"在建筑产品和Shaw地毯方面，我们经历了原材料和能源成本的惊人上涨。例如到12月份，MiTek（主要产品为屋架连接件）的钢材成本比一年前翻了一倍。而MiTek每年要消耗6.65亿磅钢材。尽管如此，这家公司的表现依然出色。自2001年我们收购MiTek以来，CEO吉恩·图姆斯 (Gene Toombs) 完成了几笔精彩的补强收购，正在打造一个小型伯克希尔。",[14,2193,2194],{},"Shaw地毯在这一年遭受了主要纤维材料价格的连番上涨，成本增加超过3亿美元。（你踩在地毯上，实际上踩的是经过加工的石油。）虽然我们随之提高了售价，但不可避免地存在时间差。因此，利润率在年内持续收窄，目前仍承受压力。尽管面临这些障碍，在鲍勃·肖 (Bob Shaw) 和朱利安·索尔 (Julian Saul) 的领导下，Shaw地毯2004年的有形净资产回报率仍高达25.6%。这家公司是一台动力十足的机器，前途光明。",[904,2196,2197],{},[907,2198,2199,2200,2203],{},"在服装方面，鲜果布衣 (Fruit of the Loom) 的单位销量增长了1,000万打，增幅达14%，其中女性和少女内衣的出货量增长了31%。在这方面查理比我懂得多得多，他向我保证女性",[661,2201,2202],{},"并没有","穿更多的内衣。有了这位专家的意见，我只能得出结论：我们在女性内衣品类的市场份额一定在快速增长。多亏了约翰·霍兰德 (John Holland)，鲜果布衣又焕发了生机。",[14,2205,2206],{},"规模较小的加兰公司 (Garan) 去年也有出色的表现。在西摩·利希滕斯坦 (Seymour Lichtenstein) 和杰里·卡米尔 (Jerry Kamiel) 的带领下，该公司生产广受欢迎的Garanimals儿童品牌。下次你去沃尔玛的时候，记得去看看这个充满创意的产品。",[904,2208,2209],{},[907,2210,2211],{},"在零售业务中，本布里奇珠宝 (Ben Bridge) 和威利家具 (R.C. Willey) 去年的表现尤为突出。",[14,2213,2214],{},"本布里奇的同店销售增长了11.4%，是我所见的所有上市珠宝商中最好的。此外，公司的利润率也有所扩大。去年的成绩绝非侥幸：过去十年公司的同店销售平均增长率达到8.8%。",[14,2216,2217],{},"埃德 (Ed) 和乔恩·布里奇 (Jon Bridge) 是家族的第四代掌门人，经营这家公司就像经营自家产业一样——事实上除了股票证书上的名字换成了伯克希尔，其他一切都不变。靠着选址准确，布里奇家族成功地扩张了业务，更重要的是每个门店都配备了充满热情和专业知识的员工。今年我们将进军明尼阿波利斯-圣保罗双子城。",[14,2219,2220],{},"在犹他州的威利家具，扩张带来的增长更加惊人——2004年销售额中有41.9%来自1999年以前不存在的州外门店。公司2004年的利润率也有所提升，得益于拉斯维加斯的两家新店。",[14,2222,2223],{},"我倒是很想告诉大家这些门店是我的主意。事实上，我原来以为它们会失败。我当然知道比尔·柴尔德 (Bill Child) 把威利家具在犹他州经营得有多出色——它在当地的市场份额多年来一直很高。但我觉得我们周日不营业的政策在外地肯定行不通。就连我们在爱达荷州博伊西 (Boise) 的第一家州外门店取得巨大成功后，我还是不信。我不断追问拉斯维加斯的居民——已经习惯了一周七天营业的零售商——是否能适应我们。我们2001年在拉斯维加斯开的第一家店用响亮的业绩回答了这个问题，一开张就成了我们业绩最好的门店。",[14,2225,2226],{},"比尔和他的继任CEO斯科特·海马斯 (Scott Hymas) 随后提议开设第二家拉斯维加斯门店，距第一家只有大约20分钟车程。我觉得这样扩张会蚕食第一家店的生意，成本大增但销售平平。结果呢？两家店的销量现在都比连锁中的其他任何门店高出约26%，而且年年保持大幅增长。",[14,2228,2229,2230,2233],{},"威利家具即将在雷诺 (Reno) 开店。在做出这一决定之前，比尔和斯科特又来征求我的意见。起初，被他们来请教让我颇为自豪。但很快我就回过神来——一个",[661,2231,2232],{},"永远","都判断错误的人的意见，对决策者来说自有其特殊的反面参考价值。",[904,2235,2236],{},[907,2237,2238],{},"航空服务的收益有所改善。飞安公司 (FlightSafety) 是全球最大的飞行员培训机构，随着企业航空的回暖和区域航空公司业务的增加，利润上升。我们目前运营283台模拟器，原始成本达12亿美元。飞行员在这些昂贵的设备上是一次一人接受训练。这意味着每3.50美元的资本投入才能产生1美元的年收入。在如此资本密集的情况下，飞安公司需要非常高的营运利润率才能获得合理的资本回报，因此设备利用率至关重要。去年飞安公司的有形净资产回报率从2003年的8.4%提升到了15.1%。",[14,2240,2241],{},"另外一件事是，1951年以1万美元创立飞安公司的阿尔·厄尔齐 (Al Ueltschi) 去年把CEO的位子交给了布鲁斯·惠特曼 (Bruce Whitman)，公司43年的老将。（但Al哪儿也不去；我不会让他走的。）布鲁斯跟Al一样坚信，驾驶飞机是一项特权，只能给予那些定期接受最高质量训练且毋庸置疑具备能力的人。几年前，查理受一位在飞安被判定不合格的企业大亨朋友之托，想替他向Al说情。Al对查理的回答是：“告诉你那位朋友，他应该待在飞机后舱，不是驾驶舱。”",[14,2243,2244],{},"飞安公司的第一大客户是NetJets，我们的飞机部分所有权子公司。它的2,100名飞行员平均每年花18天进行训练。此外，这些飞行员只飞一种机型，而许多航空运营商的飞行员要在多种机型之间切换。NetJets在这两方面的高标准，是我早在伯克希尔收购它之前就成为其客户的两个主要原因。",[14,2246,2247],{},"同样重要的是，我决定使用并收购NetJets还因为它由里奇·桑图利 (Rich Santulli) 经营。他是飞机部分所有权行业的开创者，对安全和服务的要求近乎偏执。在我看来，选择飞行服务提供商就跟选脑外科医生一样：你只想要最好的。（低价竞标者就留给别人去试验吧。）",[14,2249,2250],{},"去年NetJets再次拿下了四大行业巨头中约70%的净新增业务（按金额计）。我们的部分增长来自Marquis Jet Partners推出的25小时飞行卡。Marquis并非NetJets的子公司，而是一个客户——它从我们这里批量采购飞行时数后，重新包装成更小的套餐通过飞行卡对外销售。Marquis专做NetJets一家的生意，并以我们的声誉作为营销的核心。",[14,2252,2253],{},"我们在美国的合同数（包括Marquis客户）从2004年的3,877份增长到4,967份（相比之下，1998年伯克希尔收购NetJets时约为1,200份）。有些客户（包括我本人）签订了多份合同，因为他们希望使用多种机型，每次出行选择最适合当次任务的机型。",[14,2255,2256],{},"NetJets去年在美国赚了一笔不多不少的利润。但我们在国内赚的钱大部分被欧洲的亏损所抵消。不过，我们目前在海外正在积蓄真正的势头。包括我们自己在欧洲销售的25小时飞行卡在内，合同数从364份增加到了693份。2005年我们在欧洲仍将有很大的亏损，但美国国内的盈利应该能让整体保持黑字。",[14,2258,2259],{},"欧洲让NetJets付出了高昂的代价——远超我的预期——但要打造一个永远独一无二的飞行运营体系，这是不可或缺的。我们的美国客户走到哪里都希望享受高品质的服务，而他们对海外飞行时数的需求在未来几十年肯定会急剧增长。去年美国客户在欧洲飞了2,003个航班，比上年增长22%，比2000年增长137%。同样重要的是，我们的欧洲客户在美国飞了1,067个航班，比2003年增长65%，比2000年增长239%。",[21,2261,2262],{"id":2262},"投资组合",[14,2264,2265],{},"下表列示了我们的普通股投资。截至2004年底市值超过6亿美元的均已逐一列出。",[14,2267,2268],{},[17,2269,2270],{},"2004年12月31日",[25,2272,2273,2292],{},[28,2274,2275],{},[31,2276,2277,2280,2283,2286,2289],{},[34,2278,2279],{},"股份数量",[34,2281,2282],{},"公司名称",[34,2284,2285],{},"持股比例",[34,2287,2288],{},"成本*（百万美元）",[34,2290,2291],{},"市值（百万美元）",[47,2293,2294,2311,2328,2345,2362,2379,2395,2411,2428,2445,2462,2476],{},[31,2295,2296,2299,2302,2305,2308],{},[52,2297,2298],{},"151,610,700",[52,2300,2301],{},"美国运通 (American Express Company)",[52,2303,2304],{},"12.1",[52,2306,2307],{},"$ 1,470",[52,2309,2310],{},"$ 8,546",[31,2312,2313,2316,2319,2322,2325],{},[52,2314,2315],{},"200,000,000",[52,2317,2318],{},"可口可乐 (The Coca-Cola Company)",[52,2320,2321],{},"8.3",[52,2323,2324],{},"1,299",[52,2326,2327],{},"8,328",[31,2329,2330,2333,2336,2339,2342],{},[52,2331,2332],{},"96,000,000",[52,2334,2335],{},"吉列 (The Gillette Company)",[52,2337,2338],{},"9.7",[52,2340,2341],{},"600",[52,2343,2344],{},"4,299",[31,2346,2347,2350,2353,2356,2359],{},[52,2348,2349],{},"14,350,600",[52,2351,2352],{},"H&R Block",[52,2354,2355],{},"8.7",[52,2357,2358],{},"223",[52,2360,2361],{},"703",[31,2363,2364,2367,2370,2373,2376],{},[52,2365,2366],{},"6,708,760",[52,2368,2369],{},"M&T银行 (M&T Bank Corporation)",[52,2371,2372],{},"5.8",[52,2374,2375],{},"103",[52,2377,2378],{},"723",[31,2380,2381,2384,2387,2389,2392],{},[52,2382,2383],{},"24,000,000",[52,2385,2386],{},"穆迪 (Moody’s Corporation)",[52,2388,112],{},[52,2390,2391],{},"499",[52,2393,2394],{},"2,084",[31,2396,2397,2400,2403,2405,2408],{},[52,2398,2399],{},"2,338,961,000",[52,2401,2402],{},"中国石油H股 (PetroChina “H” shares)",[52,2404,456],{},[52,2406,2407],{},"488",[52,2409,2410],{},"1,249",[31,2412,2413,2416,2419,2422,2425],{},[52,2414,2415],{},"1,727,765",[52,2417,2418],{},"华盛顿邮报 (The Washington Post Company)",[52,2420,2421],{},"18.1",[52,2423,2424],{},"11",[52,2426,2427],{},"1,698",[31,2429,2430,2433,2436,2439,2442],{},[52,2431,2432],{},"56,448,380",[52,2434,2435],{},"富国银行 (Wells Fargo & Company)",[52,2437,2438],{},"3.3",[52,2440,2441],{},"463",[52,2443,2444],{},"3,508",[31,2446,2447,2450,2453,2456,2459],{},[52,2448,2449],{},"1,724,200",[52,2451,2452],{},"白山保险 (White Mountains Insurance)",[52,2454,2455],{},"16.0",[52,2457,2458],{},"369",[52,2460,2461],{},"1,114",[31,2463,2464,2466,2468,2471,2474],{},[52,2465,1773],{},[52,2467],{},[52,2469,2470],{},"3,531",[52,2472,2473],{},"5,465",[52,2475],{},[31,2477,2478,2481,2483,2486,2489],{},[52,2479,2480],{},"普通股投资合计",[52,2482],{},[52,2484,2485],{},"$ 9,056",[52,2487,2488],{},"$ 37,717",[52,2490],{},[904,2492,2493],{},[907,2494,2495],{},"此为我们的实际买入成本，同时也是计税基础；由于会计准则要求的增值或减值调整，通用会计准则下的”成本”在少数情况下有所不同。",[14,2497,2498,2499,2502],{},"有些人看到这张表可能会把它当成一份根据K线图、券商意见或短期盈利预测来买卖的股票清单。查理跟我对这些干扰毫不理会，而是把我们的持仓视为对企业的部分所有权。这是一个重要的区别。事实上，自从我19岁读到本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 的《聪明的投资者》(",[661,2500,2501],{},"The Intelligent Investor",") 以来，这种思维方式就一直是我投资行为的基石。那时候我恍然大悟，眼前的迷雾一扫而空。（在那之前，我虽然早已沉迷于股市，但对如何投资却根本没有头绪。）",[14,2504,2505,2506,2509],{},"让我们来看看我们的”四大天王”——美国运通 (American Express)、可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)、吉列 (Gillette) 和富国银行 (Wells Fargo)——自我们买入以来",[661,2507,2508],{},"企业本身","的表现如何。如上表所示，我们在1988年5月至2003年10月间通过多笔交易向这四家公司总共投入了38.3亿美元。按加权计算，我们的平均买入时间是1992年7月。因此到2004年底，以加权平均计，我们持有这些”企业权益”大约12.5年了。",[14,2511,2512],{},"2004年，伯克希尔按持股比例可分享的四大天王的收益合计为12亿美元。这个数字可以被视为”正常”水平。的确，由于吉列和富国银行在列报收益时未将期权成本计入费用，数字有所夸大；但另一方面，可口可乐提列了一笔非经常性减值，又使数字偏低。",[14,2514,2515],{},"我们从这四家公司分享的收益几乎年年增长，目前已达到我们投资成本的约31.3%。它们分配给我们的现金股利也稳步增长，2004年达到4.34亿美元，约占成本的11.3%。总的来说，四大天王给了我们满意但远非惊人的业务回报。",[14,2517,2518],{},"在市场表现方面的感受也是如此。自我们最初买入以来，由于市盈率有所提升，估值增幅略高于收益增长。但从年度来看，企业经营与股价表现往往会出现偏离，有时偏离幅度相当惊人。在大泡沫期间，股价涨幅远远超过了企业本身的表现。泡沫破灭后则恰恰相反。",[14,2520,2521],{},"如果我能抓住钟摆的摆动节奏，伯克希尔的业绩显然会好得多。透过一面总是擦得干干净净的后视镜来看，这似乎不难。可惜投资者必须透过的是前挡风玻璃，而那块玻璃总是雾蒙蒙的。我们庞大的持仓规模更加大了灵活进出的难度。",[14,2523,2524],{},"尽管如此，在泡沫期间我只是对着令人流鼻血的高估值唠唠叨叨，却没有按自己的判断采取行动——这一点我理应受到批评。虽然我当时说过我们持有的某些股票价格跑在了价值前面，但我低估了高估的严重程度。我该做的不只是说，还要行动。",[14,2526,2527],{},"查理跟我现在渴望的是来点实际行动。我们并不乐意坐拥430亿美元的现金等价物吃着微薄的利息。我们渴望购入更多类似现有持仓的企业部分权益——如果能直接买下整家大企业就更好了。但我们只会在价格能让我们预期获得合理投资回报时才出手。",[1411,2529],{},[14,2531,2532],{},"我们一再强调，我们每季度或每年报告的”已实现”资本利得，对分析而言毫无意义。我们账上有大量的未实现资本利得，至于什么时候兑现、是否兑现，完全不取决于想在某个特定时点报告多少收益。让我们报告的收益更加复杂的是，通用会计准则要求外汇合约按市值计价，这一规定导致这些持仓的未实现损益就像我们已经卖出一样流入我们公布的收益中。",[14,2534,2535],{},"尽管有上述种种问题，大家可能还是想了解我们2003年和2004年报告收益的明细。以下数据反映的是实际出售，外汇收益除外——那是出售和按市值调整的综合结果。",[25,2537,2538,2551],{},[28,2539,2540],{},[31,2541,2542,2545,2548],{},[34,2543,2544],{},"分类",[34,2546,2547],{},"2004年税前收益（百万美元）",[34,2549,2550],{},"2003年税前收益（百万美元）",[47,2552,2553,2564,2575,2586,2597,2607],{},[31,2554,2555,2558,2561],{},[52,2556,2557],{},"普通股",[52,2559,2560],{},"$ 870",[52,2562,2563],{},"$ 448",[31,2565,2566,2569,2572],{},[52,2567,2568],{},"美国联邦政府债券",[52,2570,2571],{},"104",[52,2573,2574],{},"1,485",[31,2576,2577,2580,2583],{},[52,2578,2579],{},"垃圾债券",[52,2581,2582],{},"730",[52,2584,2585],{},"1,138",[31,2587,2588,2591,2594],{},[52,2589,2590],{},"外汇合约",[52,2592,2593],{},"1,839",[52,2595,2596],{},"825",[31,2598,2599,2601,2604],{},[52,2600,1773],{},[52,2602,2603],{},"(47)",[52,2605,2606],{},"233",[31,2608,2609,2611,2614],{},[52,2610,1567],{},[52,2612,2613],{},"$ 3,496",[52,2615,2616],{},"$ 4,129",[14,2618,2619],{},"垃圾债券的利润包含一部分汇兑收益。几年前我们买入这些债券时，首先考量的当然是发行人的信用质量——它们全部是美国公司。不过，其中一些公司发行了以外币计价的债券。鉴于我们对美元走势的判断，凡有这类债券可供选择，我们都优先买入。",[14,2621,2622],{},"举例来说，我们在2001年以面值的51.7%买入了2.54亿欧元的Level 3公司债券（2008年到期，年息10.75%），并在2004年12月以面值的85%售出。这笔债券以欧元交易，我们买入时欧元对美元的汇率是0.88美元，卖出时已升至1.29美元。因此，在我们总计1.63亿美元的收益中，大约8,500万美元来自市场对Level 3信用质量的重新评估，其余7,800万美元来自欧元的升值。（此外，在持有期间我们每年还收到了相当于美元成本约25%的现金利息。）",[1411,2624],{},[14,2626,2627,2628,2631],{},"媒体上不断报道”巴菲特买进”这只或那只股票。这类说法几乎总是基于伯克希尔向美国证监会 (SEC) 提交的文件，因此是不准确的。就像我以前说过的，这些报道应该说”",[661,2629,2630],{},"伯克希尔","买进”才对。",[14,2633,2634],{},[17,2635,2636],{},"自律型投资人的典范",[14,2638,2639],{},[17,2640,2641],{},"路易·辛普森 (Lou Simpson)",[25,2643,2644,2659],{},[28,2645,2646],{},[31,2647,2648,2650,2653,2656],{},[34,2649,36],{},[34,2651,2652],{},"盖可保险股票投资回报率",[34,2654,2655],{},"标普500回报率",[34,2657,2658],{},"相对收益",[47,2660,2661,2673,2686,2699,2712,2725,2737,2750,2762,2775,2786,2799,2812,2825,2837,2849,2862,2874,2887,2898,2911,2923,2935,2948,2961,2974],{},[31,2662,2663,2665,2668,2670],{},[52,2664,261],{},[52,2666,2667],{},"23.7%",[52,2669,989],{},[52,2671,2672],{},"(8.6%)",[31,2674,2675,2677,2680,2683],{},[52,2676,275],{},[52,2678,2679],{},"5.4%",[52,2681,2682],{},"(5.0%)",[52,2684,2685],{},"10.4%",[31,2687,2688,2690,2693,2696],{},[52,2689,289],{},[52,2691,2692],{},"45.8%",[52,2694,2695],{},"21.4%",[52,2697,2698],{},"24.4%",[31,2700,2701,2703,2706,2709],{},[52,2702,303],{},[52,2704,2705],{},"36.0%",[52,2707,2708],{},"22.4%",[52,2710,2711],{},"13.6%",[31,2713,2714,2716,2719,2722],{},[52,2715,316],{},[52,2717,2718],{},"21.8%",[52,2720,2721],{},"6.1%",[52,2723,2724],{},"15.7%",[31,2726,2727,2729,2731,2734],{},[52,2728,330],{},[52,2730,2692],{},[52,2732,2733],{},"31.6%",[52,2735,2736],{},"14.2%",[31,2738,2739,2741,2744,2747],{},[52,2740,344],{},[52,2742,2743],{},"38.7%",[52,2745,2746],{},"18.6%",[52,2748,2749],{},"20.1%",[31,2751,2752,2754,2757,2759],{},[52,2753,356],{},[52,2755,2756],{},"(10.0%)",[52,2758,1374],{},[52,2760,2761],{},"(15.1%)",[31,2763,2764,2766,2769,2772],{},[52,2765,369],{},[52,2767,2768],{},"30.0%",[52,2770,2771],{},"16.6%",[52,2773,2774],{},"13.4%",[31,2776,2777,2779,2781,2783],{},[52,2778,382],{},[52,2780,1005],{},[52,2782,1117],{},[52,2784,2785],{},"4.4%",[31,2787,2788,2790,2793,2796],{},[52,2789,396],{},[52,2791,2792],{},"(9.9%)",[52,2794,2795],{},"(3.1%)",[52,2797,2798],{},"(6.8%)",[31,2800,2801,2803,2806,2809],{},[52,2802,410],{},[52,2804,2805],{},"56.5%",[52,2807,2808],{},"30.5%",[52,2810,2811],{},"26.0%",[31,2813,2814,2816,2819,2822],{},[52,2815,424],{},[52,2817,2818],{},"10.8%",[52,2820,2821],{},"7.6%",[52,2823,2824],{},"3.2%",[31,2826,2827,2829,2831,2834],{},[52,2828,436],{},[52,2830,1215],{},[52,2832,2833],{},"10.1%",[52,2835,2836],{},"(5.5%)",[31,2838,2839,2841,2843,2846],{},[52,2840,450],{},[52,2842,2774],{},[52,2844,2845],{},"1.3%",[52,2847,2848],{},"12.1%",[31,2850,2851,2853,2856,2859],{},[52,2852,464],{},[52,2854,2855],{},"39.8%",[52,2857,2858],{},"37.6%",[52,2860,2861],{},"2.2%",[31,2863,2864,2866,2869,2872],{},[52,2865,477],{},[52,2867,2868],{},"29.2%",[52,2870,2871],{},"23.0%",[52,2873,1263],{},[31,2875,2876,2878,2881,2884],{},[52,2877,491],{},[52,2879,2880],{},"24.6%",[52,2882,2883],{},"33.4%",[52,2885,2886],{},"(8.8%)",[31,2888,2889,2891,2893,2896],{},[52,2890,505],{},[52,2892,2746],{},[52,2894,2895],{},"28.6%",[52,2897,2756],{},[31,2899,2900,2902,2905,2908],{},[52,2901,519],{},[52,2903,2904],{},"7.2%",[52,2906,2907],{},"21.0%",[52,2909,2910],{},"(13.8%)",[31,2912,2913,2915,2918,2921],{},[52,2914,533],{},[52,2916,2917],{},"20.9%",[52,2919,2920],{},"(9.1%)",[52,2922,2768],{},[31,2924,2925,2927,2929,2932],{},[52,2926,547],{},[52,2928,1184],{},[52,2930,2931],{},"(11.9%)",[52,2933,2934],{},"17.1%",[31,2936,2937,2939,2942,2945],{},[52,2938,561],{},[52,2940,2941],{},"(8.1%)",[52,2943,2944],{},"(22.1%)",[52,2946,2947],{},"14.0%",[31,2949,2950,2952,2955,2958],{},[52,2951,574],{},[52,2953,2954],{},"38.3%",[52,2956,2957],{},"28.7%",[52,2959,2960],{},"9.6%",[31,2962,2963,2965,2968,2971],{},[52,2964,587],{},[52,2966,2967],{},"16.9%",[52,2969,2970],{},"10.9%",[52,2972,2973],{},"6.0%",[31,2975,2976,2979,2982,2985],{},[52,2977,2978],{},"1980-2004年年均收益率",[52,2980,2981],{},"20.3%",[52,2983,2984],{},"13.5%",[52,2986,1247],{},[14,2988,2989],{},"即便如此，做出买入决策的通常也不是我。路易·辛普森管理着盖可保险约25亿美元的股票投资组合，而伯克希尔向SEC申报的交易大多是他的。通常他买入的标的在2亿到3亿美元的规模，比我关注的公司要小。看看上面这张表就知道，路易进入投资名人堂几乎是板上钉钉的事。",[14,2991,2992],{},"你也许会惊讶地得知，路易不一定会事先告诉我他在做什么。当查理跟我授权给一个人时，我们是真的把指挥棒交出去了——对路易如此，对我们旗下的业务经理人也是如此。因此，我通常是在每个月结束后十天左右才知道路易做了哪些交易。说实话，有时候我并不认同他的决策。但他通常是对的。",[21,2994,2995],{"id":2995},"外汇投资",[14,2997,2998,2999,3002],{},"截至年底，伯克希尔持有约214亿美元的外汇合约，分布在12种货币中。正如我去年提到的，这类投资对我们来说是一个重大的转变。在2002年3月之前，伯克希尔和我本人都",[661,3000,3001],{},"从未","做过外汇交易。但越来越多的证据表明，我们的贸易政策将在未来许多年持续给美元施加压力——所以从2002年起，我们就在投资布局上重视了这一警示。（就像老牌喜剧演员W.C. 菲尔兹 (W.C. Fields) 被人讨钱时说的那样：“抱歉，小子，我的钱全套在外汇上了。”）",[14,3004,3005],{},"请务必搞清楚一点：我们在外汇上的布局绝不代表我们对美国有任何怀疑。我们生活在一个极其富裕的国家，这个国家的制度崇尚市场经济、法治精神和机会平等。我们的经济无疑是世界上最强大的，而且将继续如此。我们何其有幸生活在这里。",[14,3007,3008,3009,3012,3013,3020,3021,3024],{},"但正如我在2003年11月10日发表于《财富》(",[661,3010,3011],{},"Fortune",") 杂志的",[3014,3015,3019],"a",{"href":3016,"rel":3017},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.berkshirehathaway.com\u002Fletters\u002Fgrowing.pdf",[3018],"nofollow","文章","中所论述的（可在伯克希尔网站上查阅），我们国家的贸易政策正在拖累美元。美元的贬值幅度已经相当可观，但很可能还会继续。如果政策不变，外汇市场甚至可能陷入混乱，并在政治和金融层面引发连锁效应。没有人知道这些问题是否会成为现实。但这种情景远非不着边际的假设，政策制定者",[661,3022,3023],{},"现在","就应该认真考虑。然而他们的倾向是采取一种并不善意的忽视态度：一份长达318页、研究持续贸易赤字后果的国会报告于2000年11月发表后便束之高阁。这份报告是在贸易赤字达到当时令人震惊的2,630亿美元时委托撰写的；到去年，这一数字已飙升至6,180亿美元。",[14,3026,3027],{},"查理跟我必须强调，我们相信真正的贸易——即与其他国家的货物和服务交换——对双方都大有裨益。去年我们有1.15万亿美元的实实在在的贸易额，这个数字越大越好。但正如前面提到的，我们国家还额外向世界其他地方购买了6,180亿美元的商品和服务，却没有相应的回报。这是一个惊人的数字，而且后果严重。",[14,3029,3030],{},"这种单向伪贸易的平衡项——在经济学中总有一个对价——就是财富从美国流向世界其他地方。这种转移可能以我们的私营或政府机构向外国人发出借据的形式实现，也可能以外国人取得我们资产（如股票和房地产）所有权的形式实现。不管哪种方式，最终结果都是美国人拥有自己国家的比例越来越少，而非美国人拥有的比例越来越大。目前，美国的财富正以每天18亿美元的速度流向世界其他地方，比我去年写信时又增加了20%。因此，外国人和他们的政府如今净持有约3万亿美元的美国资产。十年前这个数字还微乎其微。",[14,3032,3033],{},"提到”万亿”这种数字，大多数人的大脑会直接宕机。更容易让人混淆的是，经常账户赤字（由三个项目组成，其中最重要的远远是贸易赤字）和我们的国家预算赤字经常被混为一谈，并称为”双胞胎赤字”。但它们根本不是一回事。成因不同，后果也不同。",[14,3035,3036,3037,3039],{},"预算赤字不会减少美国人能分到的国家蛋糕份额。只要外国人和他们的公民没有净持有美国资产，那么在",[661,3038,940],{},"预算方案下——即便是巨额赤字——我们国家100%的产出都归我们的公民所有。",[14,3041,3042,3043,3046],{},"作为一个商品充裕的富裕”大家庭”，美国人会通过立法者争论政府应该如何重新分配国家产出——也就是谁纳税、谁享受政府福利。如果早年做出的”福利”承诺不得不重新审视，“家族成员”们会愤怒地争辩到底谁来承受损失。也许税收会增加；也许承诺会调整；也许会发行更多国内债务。但争吵结束后，这个家庭巨大的蛋糕——不管怎么切——",[661,3044,3045],{},"全部","仍然归家族成员享用。不需要把任何一块送往国外。",[14,3048,3049],{},"然而，巨额且持续的经常账户赤字产生的结果截然不同。随着时间推移，随着对我们的债权不断增长，我们自己的产出中归自己所有的份额越来越少。实际上，世界其他国家在美国产出上享受的”税赋”与日俱增。在这方面，我们就像一个长期入不敷出的家庭。随着时间推移，这个家庭发现自己越来越多地在为”财务公司”打工，留给自己的越来越少。",[14,3051,3052,3053,3056],{},"如果我们继续维持目前规模的经常账户赤字，十年后外国人净持有的美国资产将达到大约11万亿美元。而如果外国投资者在这些净持有资产上仅获得5%的回报，我们",[661,3054,3055],{},"每年","就需要向海外输送5,500亿美元的商品和服务，仅仅是为外国人持有的美国投资提供回报。十年后，我们的GDP大概会达到约18万亿美元（假设低通胀——虽然这远非定数）。届时，美国这个”大家庭”每年将不得不把年产出的3%拱手让出，仅仅是为了偿还过去挥霍无度的代价。在这种情况下，不同于预算赤字的情形，真的就变成了父债子还。",[14,3058,3059],{},"这笔每年支付给世界的”贡金”——除非美国大幅缩减消费并开始持续实现大额贸易顺差，否则将不会消失——毫无疑问会在美国国内引发严重的政治动荡。美国人仍将生活得非常好，实际上由于经济增长甚至会比现在更好。但一想到要永远向海外的债权人和资产所有者缴纳”贡金”，他们就会满腹怨气。一个正在追求建设”所有权社会”的国家，不会在——请允许我夸张一下以示强调——“佃农社会”中找到幸福感。然而这恰恰正是共和党和民主党一致支持的贸易政策，正带领我们前进的方向。",[14,3061,3062],{},"美国政府内外的许多重量级财经人物都声称，目前的经常账户赤字无法持续下去。例如，2004年6月29-30日美联储公开市场委员会的会议纪要中写道：“幕僚指出，过大的外部赤字不可能无限期地维持下去。”但尽管这些大人物们不断忧心忡忡地搓着手，他们却拿不出什么实质性的建议来遏制日益膨胀的失衡。",[14,3064,3065],{},"在我16个月前为《财富》杂志撰写的文章中，我曾警告”温和的美元贬值解决不了问题”。到目前为止确实如此。然而政策制定者们仍然寄希望于”软着陆”，同时劝告其他国家刺激（请读作”通胀“）它们的经济，劝告美国人多存钱。在我看来，这些忠告都没有切中要害：深层次的结构性问题将导致美国继续维持巨额经常账户赤字，除非贸易政策发生根本性的改变，或者美元贬值到足以令金融市场惊慌失措的程度。",[14,3067,3068],{},"维持贸易现状的支持者喜欢引用亚当·斯密 (Adam Smith) 的话：“如果每个家庭的做法都审慎无误，那么整个国家的方向就错不了。如果外国能比我们自己更便宜地提供某种商品，不如用我们在具有优势领域生产的部分产品去购买。”",[14,3070,3071,3072,3075,3076,3079],{},"我同意这段话。但请注意，斯密先生说的是",[661,3073,3074],{},"产品","换产品的贸易，而非像我们国家目前每年以6,000亿美元的规模所做的那样——用",[661,3077,3078],{},"财富","换产品。而且我确信，他绝不会建议一个”审慎”的家庭每天变卖一部分农场来资助其过度消费的习惯。然而，这个叫美利坚合众国的”大家庭”正在这么做。",[14,3081,3082,3083,3086,3087,3090],{},"如果美国目前拥有的是6,000亿美元的经常账户",[661,3084,3085],{},"顺差","，全世界的评论家都会猛烈抨击我们的政策，将其视为极端形式的”重商主义”——一种早已被否定的经济战略：鼓励出口、抑制进口、囤积财富。我也会谴责这种政策。但事实上，即便并非出于本意，世界其他国家正在对美国实行重商主义——而这之所以可能，是因为我们有大量的资产储备和无瑕的信用记录。确实，除了美国，世界绝不会允许任何其他国家以我们目前这种贪得无厌的程度使用以本国货币计价的信用卡。目前，大多数外国投资者还颇为乐观：他们可能觉得我们是花钱如流水的败家子，但他们知道我们是",[661,3088,3089],{},"极其富有的","败家子。",[14,3092,3093,3094,3097],{},"然而，我们这种挥霍无度的行为不可能被无限期地容忍。虽然无法预测贸易问题将在何时以何种方式得到解决，但解决方案不太可能导致我们的货币相对于贸易伙伴的货币",[661,3095,3096],{},"升值","。",[14,3099,3100],{},"我们希望美国采取能够迅速且大幅削减经常账户赤字的政策。诚然，一个快速的解决方案可能会导致伯克希尔在外汇合约上录得损失。但伯克希尔的资源仍然集中在以美元计价的资产上，强势美元和低通胀的环境完全符合我们的利益。",[14,3102,3103,3104,3107],{},"如果你想持续跟踪贸易和汇率问题，建议阅读《金融时报》(",[661,3105,3106],{},"Financial Times",")。这份伦敦出版的报纸长期以来一直是每日国际财经新闻的领先信息源，现在还有出色的美国版。它在贸易方面的报道和评论都堪称一流。",[1411,3109],{},[14,3111,3112],{},"话说回来，照例还是要提醒大家：宏观经济是个极难的游戏，包括查理和我在内，很少有人在这方面展现出真正的本事。我们在汇率上的判断很可能是错的。（事实上，如今有这么多专家跟着预测美元走弱，反而让我们感到不安。）如果我们真的错了，那可就丢人丢到公开场合了。讽刺的是，如果我们选择相反的做法——把伯克希尔所有的资产都留在美元上，即使美元的价值大幅缩水——也不会有人注意到我们的错误。",[14,3114,3115,3116,3119,3120,3123],{},"约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (John Maynard Keynes) 在他的巨著《通论》(",[661,3117,3118],{},"The General Theory",") 中说过：“普世的智慧告诉我们，循规蹈矩地失败比标新立异地成功对声誉更好。”（或者，用不那么文雅的话说，旅鼠作为一个物种可以被嘲笑，但",[661,3121,3122],{},"单独一只","旅鼠绝不会挨骂。）从声誉的角度看，查理跟我在外汇上的做法确实承受着明显的风险。但我们坚持按照自己100%拥有伯克希尔的心态来管理它。如果真是那样的话，我们不会只把钱放在美元资产上。",[21,3125,3126],{"id":3126},"其他事项",[904,3128,3129],{},[907,3130,3131],{},"去年我告诉大家，一群田纳西大学金融专业的学生在我们17亿美元收购克莱顿房屋 (Clayton Homes) 的过程中扮演了关键角色。此前，他们由阿尔·欧克西尔 (Al Auxier) 教授带队——每年都会带一个班来——到奥马哈参观内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart) 和波仙珠宝 (Borsheim’s)，去Gorat’s吃牛排，在Kiewit总部和我来一场问答会。这些访客，如同前来参加股东年会的人一样，对这座城市和热情友好的市民留下了深刻的印象。",[14,3133,3134],{},"之后其他大专院校也纷纷来访。这个学年，我们将接待来自芝加哥、达特茅斯（塔克商学院）、特拉华州立、佛罗里达州立、印第安纳、爱荷华、爱荷华州立、马里兰、内布拉斯加、西北拿撒勒、宾夕法尼亚（沃顿商学院）、斯坦福、田纳西、得克萨斯、得克萨斯A&M、多伦多（罗特曼商学院）、联合大学和犹他等学校的班级，每班30到100人不等。大多数学生是MBA候选人，他们的素质给我留下了深刻的印象。他们对商业和投资兴趣浓厚，但从他们提的问题可以看出，赚钱并不是他们心中唯一的事。每次与他们见面后，我的心情都很好。",[14,3136,3137],{},"在交流时，我会给新来的同学讲田纳西那群学生发现克莱顿公司的故事。我这么做的精神就像那个农夫，拿着一颗鸵鸟蛋走进鸡舍，告诫自家母鸡：“姑娘们，我不想抱怨什么，但这只是竞争对手的一个小样本。”到目前为止，这些新同学还没有给我们带来什么交易。不过他们的使命已经被我说得很清楚了。",[904,3139,3140],{},[907,3141,3142],{},"大家应当注意，有一项会计规则在以”今天吃点苦、明天得回报”的方式轻微扭曲了我们的财务报表。伯克希尔从那些本来准备将保单退保换取现金的个人和企业手中购买人寿保单。作为保单的新持有人，我们支付到期的保费，最终——当原持有人过世时——我们领取保单的面值。",[14,3144,3145],{},"我们购买保单时，原持有人的健康状况通常良好。尽管如此，我们支付的价格总是远高于保单的现金退保价值（CSV）。有时原持有人已经用CSV做了抵押借款来支付保费。在这种情况下，剩余的CSV很少，而我们的收购价是原持有人自行退保所能拿到的金额的许多倍。",[14,3147,3148],{},"按照会计准则，我们在购买保单时必须立即将超出CSV的支付金额记为已实现资本损失。此外，每年我们还必须就支付的续期保费超出CSV增加额的部分追加费用。但显然，我们不认为这些会计记录代表真正的经济损失。如果我们这样认为，就不会去买这些保单了。",[14,3150,3151],{},"2004年，我们因购买保单（以及维持保单所需支付的保费）净”亏损”了2.07亿美元，在损益表中从已实现投资收益中扣减（列在”其他”项下）。未来当我们收到保险理赔金时，超出当时CSV的部分将被记为已实现投资收益。",[904,3153,3154],{},[907,3155,3156],{},"泡沫之后的两项公司治理改革对伯克希尔特别有用，而我很后悔没有多年前就付诸实施。第一项是定期召开没有CEO出席的董事会议。我先后在19家公司担任过董事，在很多场合，这一做法本可以让一些值得商榷的方案得到更彻底的审视。在少数情况下，必要的CEO更替也本可以更快地执行。这个做法有百利而无一害。",[14,3158,3159],{},"第二项改革是”检举热线”——一种让员工可以直接向我和董事会审计委员会提供信息而不用担心遭到报复的渠道。伯克希尔极端分权化的管理模式使这一制度对我和审计委员会都格外宝贵。（在一个拥有18万员工的庞大”城市”里——这是伯克希尔目前的雇员人数——不是每只掉下来的麻雀都能被总部注意到的。）我们收到的大多数投诉属于”我旁边那家伙有口臭”之类，但偶尔我也从中了解到子公司的一些重要问题，否则就会被我错过。这些问题通常不是审计能发现的类型，而是涉及人事管理和业务操作。如果几十年前我就设立了检举热线，伯克希尔今天会更有价值。",[904,3161,3162],{},[907,3163,3164],{},"查理跟我喜欢股东们以所有者的心态去思考和行动。有时候这需要他们主动一些。而在这方面，大型机构投资者应当身先士卒。",[14,3166,3167],{},"然而到目前为止，机构投资者的行动可谓乏善可陈。通常他们纠结于细枝末节，却忽略了三个真正重要的问题。第一，公司的CEO是否称职？第二，他\u002F她的薪酬是否过分？第三，拟议中的收购究竟是在创造还是在毁灭每股价值？",[14,3169,3170],{},"在这些问题上，CEO的利益很可能与股东的利益大相径庭。而且董事们有时缺乏足够的见识或胆量来否决CEO。因此，大股东们聚焦于这三个问题并在必要时大声发声，就显得至关重要。",[14,3172,3173],{},"结果很多人只是按照一份”清单”来照本宣科地处理当前热点问题。去年我自己就成了这种做法的”受害者”。几位机构股东和他们的顾问认定，我作为可口可乐 (Coca-Cola) 董事缺乏”独立性”。一个团体想把我从董事会赶走，另一个只想把我踢出审计委员会。",[14,3175,3176],{},"我的第一反应是偷偷资助第二个团体。谁会想待在审计委员会里，这我真想不通。但既然董事总得被分配到某个委员会，而没有哪个CEO希望我待在他的薪酬委员会里，所以被派到审计委员会就常常是我的命运。结果那些反对我的机构没有成功，我还是被留在了审计委员会的岗位上。（我忍住了要求重新计票的冲动。）",[14,3178,3179],{},"有些机构质疑我的”独立性”，理由之一是麦克莱恩 (McLane) 和冰雪皇后 (Dairy Queen) 购买大量可口可乐产品。（他们难道想让我们改买百事可乐？）但独立性在韦氏词典中的定义是”不受他人控制”。我实在想不通，当天平的另一边是伯克希尔持有的80亿美元可口可乐股票时，怎么会有人得出结论说我们购买可口可乐产品会”控制”我的决策。假设我还算有那么一丁点理性的话，最基本的算术就应该能说明，我的心是站在可口可乐的股东这边，而不是它的管理层那边。",[14,3181,3182],{},"我忍不住要提一句，在独立性这件事上，耶稣比那些抗议的机构看得透彻得多。在《马太福音》6:21中，他说过：“你的财宝在哪里，你的心也在那里。”即便对机构投资者来说，80亿美元也绝对称得上”财宝”，远远盖过伯克希尔与可口可乐之间日常交易所能赚取的利润。",[14,3184,3185,3186,3189,3190,3193,3194,3197,3198,3201],{},"以圣经的标准衡量，伯克希尔的董事会堪称模范：（a）",[661,3187,3188],{},"每位","董事的家族都持有至少400万美元的伯克希尔股票；（b）这些股份",[661,3191,3192],{},"没有任何","是通过期权或赠与从伯克希尔获得的；（c）",[661,3195,3196],{},"没有","董事从公司领取的委员会费、顾问费或董事费占其年收入的重要比例；（d）虽然我们有标准的公司赔偿安排，但我们",[661,3199,3200],{},"不为","董事购买责任保险。",[14,3203,3204],{},"在伯克希尔，董事们与股东走在同一条路上。",[1411,3206],{},[14,3208,3209,3210,3213],{},"根据我们丰富的董事会经验，查理跟我见过许多印证圣经”财宝”观点的行为。在我们看来，",[661,3211,3212],{},"最不","独立的董事很可能是那些年收入中有重要部分来自董事酬劳的人（他们还希望被推荐去其他公司的董事会任职，从而进一步增加收入）。然而，恰恰是这些人最常被归类为”独立”董事。",[14,3215,3216],{},"这类董事大多是体面的人，本职工作也干得不错。但如果面对可能威胁其生计的行动而毫不动心，那就不是凡人了。有些人确实会屈服于这种诱惑。",[14,3218,3219],{},"让我用一个基于间接证据的例子来说明。我有第一手资料知道最近的一桩收购提案（不是伯克希尔的），管理层赞成，公司的投资银行也已祝福，准备以高于该股票近年来（以及目前）市场交易价格的价格推进。此外，好几位董事也赞成这笔交易，想要将其提交股东表决。",[14,3221,3222],{},"然而，他们的几位同僚——每人每年从公司领取约10万美元的董事会和委员会酬劳——却把这项提案给搅黄了，这意味着股东们始终不知道有这么一个数十亿美元的报价存在。非管理层董事几乎没有自掏腰包买过股票，持有的极少数股份也是公司赠与的。近年来他们在公开市场的买入微乎其微，尽管股价远低于拟议的收购价。换句话说，这些董事不想让股东们接受X价格的报价，而他们自己却一直拒绝以X的零头为自己的账户买入该股票。",[14,3224,3225],{},"我不知道是哪些董事反对让股东们看到这个报价。但我知道，那10万美元对其中一些被视为”独立”的董事来说，是年收入的重要部分——完全符合《马太福音》6:21中”财宝”的定义。如果这笔交易成了，他们的酬劳就到头了。",[14,3227,3228],{},"股东们和我都不会知道那些反对者的真正动机。事实上，由于私利不可避免地模糊了自我审视，他们自己大概也不清楚。但有一件事我们知道：就在否决这笔交易的同一次董事会上，董事们投票给自己大幅加了薪。",[904,3230,3231],{},[907,3232,3233],{},"既然说到了利己主义的话题，让我们再来谈谈管理层夸大收益时依然可用的最重要的会计工具：股票期权不计入费用。在这场荒唐闹剧中充当帮凶的，是许多国会议员——他们公然无视四大会计师事务所、财务会计准则委员会 (FASB) 全体成员以及几乎所有投资专业人士提出的论据。",[14,3235,3236,3237,3240,3241,3246],{},"我附上了一篇我为《华盛顿邮报》(",[661,3238,3239],{},"The Washington Post",") 撰写的",[3014,3242,3245],{"href":3243,"rel":3244},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.berkshirehathaway.com\u002Fletters\u002Foptions.pdf",[3018],"评论文章","，其中描述了去年夏天在众议院以312票对111票通过的一项令人瞠目结舌的法案。多亏参议员理查德·谢尔比 (Richard Shelby) 的阻挡，参议院没有批准众议院的这一愚蠢行为。而更值得称赞的是，证监会 (SEC) 以投资者利益为先的主席比尔·唐纳森 (Bill Donaldson) 在巨大的政治压力下岿然不动——那些挥舞着政治献金支票的CEO们在1993年就对期权会计问题向国会施压过，去年不过是故技重施而已。",[14,3248,3249],{},"由于把期权问题搅浑的企图仍在继续，有必要指出，没有人——无论是FASB、一般投资者还是我——主张以任何方式限制期权的使用。事实上，我在伯克希尔的继任者很可能会通过期权获得大部分薪酬，不过这些期权在设计上必须合乎逻辑：（1）适当的执行价格；（2）执行价格应随留存收益的增长而相应调升；（3）禁止获得者在通过期权购入股票后迅速处置。我们赞成任何能激励管理层的安排，不管是现金奖金还是期权。如果一家公司确实从发出的期权中获得了价值，我们看不出有什么理由仅仅因为要把期权成本记入费用就减少其使用。",[14,3251,3252],{},"事实真相很简单：某些CEO心知肚明，一旦期权费用化，他们自己的薪酬将面临更理性的审视。他们还怀疑，如果采用实事求是的会计方法，公司的股价会更低，这意味着他们抛售个人持股时套现的金额也会减少。对这些CEO来说，这些不愉快的前景是必须用尽一切手段来对抗的——尽管他们在这场战斗中使用的资金通常不属于他们自己，而是来自股东。",[14,3254,3255],{},"期权费用化定于今年6月15日起强制实行。因此大家可以预期，从现在到那时，阻挠或阉割这一规则的努力会愈演愈烈。请让你们选区的国会议员和参议员知道你们在这个问题上的立场。",[21,3257,3258],{"id":3258},"年度股东大会",[14,3260,3261],{},"今年的年度会议有两项变化。首先，我们把会议安排在4月的最后一个周六（30日），而不是通常的5月第一个周六。今年母亲节恰好是5月8日，在那个特殊的日子让波仙珠宝和Gorat’s牛排馆的员工来为我们服务实在说不过去——所以我们把一切提前了一周。明年我们将恢复正常安排，在2006年5月6日举行。",[14,3263,3264],{},"此外，我们改变了会议当天4月30日的流程安排。跟往常一样，Qwest中心的大门早上7点开放，电影短片8点半播放。不过9点半我们将直接进入问答环节，一直持续到下午3点（午餐可在Qwest的餐饮摊位解决）。然后短暂休息后，查理跟我将在3点15分召开正式股东大会。",[14,3266,3267],{},"我们之所以做此改变，是因为去年有不少股东抱怨，两位发言人提出了大多数人不感兴趣的议案，却占用了大量时间——他们无疑是在享受面对约19,500人的”俘虏听众”发言的机会。按照新流程，想全程参与的股东可以留到正式会议结束，不想的可以提前离场——或者更好的选择是去购物。",[14,3269,3270],{},"旁边巨大的展览厅里有大把购物的机会。凯莉·穆切莫尔 (Kelly Muchemore)，伯克希尔的弗洛·齐格菲尔德（百老汇演出大亨），去年组织了一场盛大的购物盛会，她说那只是今年的热身。（我很高兴地向大家报告，凯莉10月份结婚了。我担任她的婚礼送亲人，还建议她创造一段历史，在股东大会上举行婚礼。可惜查理坚持要当花童，她不干了。）",[14,3272,3273],{},"我们将再次展示一套2,100平方英尺的克莱顿预制房屋（配备Acme砖块、Shaw地毯、Johns Manville隔热材料、MiTek连接件、Carefree遮阳篷和内布拉斯加家具店的家具）。欢迎参观。最好顺便买一套。",[14,3275,3276],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO) 将设立展位，由来自全国各地的多位顶尖顾问驻场，随时为大家提供汽车保险报价。在大多数情况下，GEICO可以给你一个特别的股东折扣（通常为8%）。在我们经营的50个州中，有45个州允许这一特惠。请带上你现有保险的详细资料，看看我们能不能帮你省点钱。",[14,3278,3279],{},"周六在奥马哈机场，NetJets将照例展出一系列飞机供大家参观。请到Qwest中心的NetJets展位了解参观事宜。来的时候坐大巴，走的时候开新飞机。",[14,3281,3282,3283,3286,3287,3290],{},"书虫书店 (Bookworm) 去年销售伯克希尔相关书籍的生意相当火爆。展出18种书目，共售出2,920册，销售额61,000美元。因为我们不收租金（我一定是越来越心软了），所以股东们买书可享八折优惠。今年我特地请书虫增加了格雷厄姆·艾利森 (Graham Allison) 的《核恐怖主义：可预防的终极灾难》(",[661,3284,3285],{},"Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe",")，这是所有关心国家安全的人的必读之作。此外，书店还将首发彼得·考夫曼 (Peter Kaufman) 编著的《穷查理宝典》(",[661,3288,3289],{},"Poor Charlie’s Almanack",")。长期以来，学者们一直在争论查理是否是本杰明·富兰克林 (Ben Franklin) 的转世。这本书应该能给出答案。",[14,3292,3293],{},"随附的委托书材料中附有说明，告诉大家如何获取出席会议和其他活动所需的凭证。至于机票、酒店和租车预订，我们再次委托美国运通 (American Express)（电话800-799-6634）为大家提供专项服务。他们每年都为我们提供出色的服务，在此向他们表示感谢。",[14,3295,3296],{},"在位于第72街道奇街与太平洋街之间、占地77英亩的内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)，我们将再次推出”伯克希尔周末”特惠价。这项特别活动我们八年前在NFM首次推出，“周末”销售额从1997年的530万美元增长到2004年的2,510万美元（比上年增长45%）。年年都刷新纪录，去年的周六更是创下了NFM历史上的单日销售纪录——610万美元。",[14,3298,3299],{},"要享受折扣，你的购买时间必须在4月28日周四至5月2日周一之间（含），同时需要出示股东会凭证。特惠期间的特别定价甚至适用于几家通常铁律不打折的顶级品牌的产品——它们本着我们股东周末的精神破例为你们开恩。我们感谢它们的配合。NFM周一至周六的营业时间为上午10点至晚上9点，周日为上午10点至下午6点。今年周六从下午5点半到晚上8点，我们将举办一场仅限股东参加的特别活动。我会到场，吃着烤肉喝着可乐。",[14,3301,3302],{},"波仙珠宝 (Borsheim’s)——全美最大的单体珠宝店，仅次于蒂芙尼 (Tiffany) 的曼哈顿旗舰店——将举办两场股东专享活动。第一场是4月29日周五下午6点到晚上10点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场也是主要的盛会，是5月1日周日上午9点到下午4点。周六营业到下午6点。",[14,3304,3305],{},"整个周末波仙都会人山人海。为了方便大家，股东特惠价将从4月25日周一延续到5月7日周六。在此期间，只需通过股东会凭证或券商对账单证明股东身份即可享受优惠。",[14,3307,3308],{},"波仙的毛利率比主要竞争对手整整低了20个百分点以上，还没算上股东折扣。去年周末的销售额比2003年增长了73%，又创了一个不容易被打破的纪录。各位加把劲，让我看看行不行。",[14,3310,3311,3312,3315],{},"在波仙外面搭的帐篷里，两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫 (Patrick Wolff) 将蒙着眼同时与六人对弈，挑战所有来者。此外，两位世界顶级桥牌高手鲍勃·哈曼 (Bob Hamman) 和莎伦·奥斯伯格 (Sharon Osberg) 将在周日下午与股东们同乐。他们打算",[661,3313,3314],{},"睁着","眼——不过鲍勃从来不整理手上的牌，即便是在参加全国锦标赛时也是如此。",[14,3317,3318,3319,3322],{},"Gorat’s——我最爱的牛排馆——将在5月1日周日专门为伯克希尔股东开放，从下午4点营业到晚上10点。请记住，那天去Gorat’s必须提前预订。预订请在4月1日打电话402-551-3733（",[661,3320,3321],{},"不要更早","）。如果周日订满了，试试你在城里的其他晚上。要展现你的老饕风范，就像我一样点一份三分熟的丁骨牛排配双份炸土豆饼。",[14,3324,3325],{},"周六下午4点到5点半，我们将再次为来自北美以外地区的股东举办特别招待会。每年都有来自世界各地的人们参加我们的会议，查理跟我希望亲自迎接那些远道而来的人。去年我们很高兴见到了400多位海外股东，其中至少100位来自澳大利亚。任何来自美国和加拿大以外的股东都将获得参加这一活动的特别凭证和说明。",[1411,3327],{},[14,3329,3330],{},"查理跟我真是幸运。我们拥有自己热爱的工作，每天都有才华横溢、朝气蓬勃的同事从方方面面给予帮助。难怪我们每天都跳着踢踏舞去上班。但没有什么比和我们的股东合伙人在伯克希尔年会上相聚更令人开心的了。4月30日Qwest中心见，来参加我们一年一度的资本家伍德斯托克音乐节吧。",[14,3332,3333],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,3335,3336],{},"董事会主席",[14,3338,3339],{},"2005年2月28日",{"title":3341,"searchDepth":3342,"depth":3342,"links":3343},"",2,[3344,3346,3347,3348,3349,3350,3351,3352,3353,3354,3355],{"id":23,"depth":3345,"text":23},3,{"id":641,"depth":3345,"text":642},{"id":689,"depth":3345,"text":689},{"id":698,"depth":3345,"text":698},{"id":912,"depth":3345,"text":912},{"id":1590,"depth":3345,"text":1590},{"id":1838,"depth":3345,"text":1839},{"id":2262,"depth":3345,"text":2262},{"id":2995,"depth":3345,"text":2995},{"id":3126,"depth":3345,"text":3126},{"id":3258,"depth":3345,"text":3258},"致股东信",null,"2004年巴菲特致股东信，讨论内在价值估算、保险业务强劲表现及投资组合业绩","md",{},true,75,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":3358},"2004 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","zv3MXY4dZlsr-dklkfL-OZVYlqnijgXGzbvVjFsImx0","buffett",[3371,3376,3380,3384,3387,3390,3393,3396,3399,3402,3406,3409,3412,3416,3419,3422,3426,3429,3432,3436,3439,3442,3446,3449,3452,3456,3459,3462,3466,3469,3472,3476,3479,3482,3486,3489,3492,3496,3499,3502,3506,3509,3512,3516,3519,3522,3526,3529,3532,3536,3539,3542,3546,3549,3552,3556,3559,3562,3566,3569,3572,3576,3579,3582,3586,3589,3592,3596,3599,3602,3606,3609,3612,3616,3619,3622,3626,3629,3632,3636,3639,3642,3646,3649,3652,3656,3659,3662,3666,3669,3672,3676,3679,3682,3686,3689,3692,3696,3699,3702,3706,3709,3713,3716,3720,3723,3727,3730,3734,3737,3741,3744,3748,3751,3755,3758,3762,3765,3769,3772,3776,3779,3783,3786,3790,3793,3797,3800,3804,3807,3811,3814,3818,3821,3825,3828,3832,3835,3839,3842,3846,3849,3853,3856,3860,3863,3867,3870,3874,3877,3881,3884,3888,3891,3895,3898,3902,3905,3909,3912,3916,3919,3923,3926,3930,3933,3937,3940,3944,3947,3951,3954,3958,3961,3965,3968,3972,3975,3979,3982,3986,3989,3990,3993,3997,4000,4004,4007,4011,4014,4018,4021,4025,4028,4032,4035,4039,4042,4046,4049,4053,4056,4060,4063,4067,4070,4074,4077,4081,4084,4088,4091,4095,4098,4102,4105,4109,4112,4116,4119,4123,4126,4130,4133,4137,4140,4144,4147,4151,4154,4158,4161,4165,4168,4172,4176,4180,4184,4188,4192,4196,4200,4204,4208,4212,4216,4220,4224,4228,4232,4236,4240,4244,4248,4252,4256,4260,4264,4268,4272,4276,4280,4284,4288,4292,4296,4300,4304,4308,4312,4316,4320,4324,4328,4332,4336,4340,4344,4348,4352,4356,4360,4364,4368],{"title":3372,"slug":3373,"category":3374,"order":3375},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":3377,"slug":3378,"category":3379,"order":3375},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":3381,"slug":3382,"category":3383,"order":3375},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":3385,"slug":3386,"category":3374,"order":3342},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":3388,"slug":3389,"category":3379,"order":3342},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":3391,"slug":3392,"category":3383,"order":3342},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3394,"slug":3395,"category":3374,"order":3345},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":3397,"slug":3398,"category":3379,"order":3345},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":3400,"slug":3401,"category":3383,"order":3345},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3403,"slug":3404,"category":3374,"order":3405},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":3407,"slug":3408,"category":3379,"order":3405},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":3410,"slug":3411,"category":3383,"order":3405},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3413,"slug":3414,"category":3374,"order":3415},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":3417,"slug":3418,"category":3379,"order":3415},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":3420,"slug":3421,"category":3383,"order":3415},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3423,"slug":3424,"category":3374,"order":3425},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":3427,"slug":3428,"category":3379,"order":3425},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":3430,"slug":3431,"category":3383,"order":3425},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3433,"slug":3434,"category":3374,"order":3435},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":3437,"slug":3438,"category":3379,"order":3435},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":3440,"slug":3441,"category":3383,"order":3435},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3443,"slug":3444,"category":3374,"order":3445},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":3447,"slug":3448,"category":3379,"order":3445},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":3450,"slug":3451,"category":3383,"order":3445},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3453,"slug":3454,"category":3374,"order":3455},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":3457,"slug":3458,"category":3379,"order":3455},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":3460,"slug":3461,"category":3383,"order":3455},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3463,"slug":3464,"category":3374,"order":3465},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":3467,"slug":3468,"category":3379,"order":3465},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":3470,"slug":3471,"category":3383,"order":3465},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3473,"slug":3474,"category":3374,"order":3475},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":3477,"slug":3478,"category":3379,"order":3475},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":3480,"slug":3481,"category":3383,"order":3475},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3483,"slug":3484,"category":3374,"order":3485},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":3487,"slug":3488,"category":3379,"order":3485},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":3490,"slug":3491,"category":3383,"order":3485},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3493,"slug":3494,"category":3374,"order":3495},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":3497,"slug":3498,"category":3379,"order":3495},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":3500,"slug":3501,"category":3383,"order":3495},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3503,"slug":3504,"category":3374,"order":3505},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":3507,"slug":3508,"category":3379,"order":3505},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":3510,"slug":3511,"category":3383,"order":3505},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3513,"slug":3514,"category":3374,"order":3515},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":3517,"slug":3518,"category":3379,"order":3515},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":3520,"slug":3521,"category":3383,"order":3515},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3523,"slug":3524,"category":3374,"order":3525},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":3527,"slug":3528,"category":3379,"order":3525},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":3530,"slug":3531,"category":3383,"order":3525},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3533,"slug":3534,"category":3374,"order":3535},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":3537,"slug":3538,"category":3379,"order":3535},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":3540,"slug":3541,"category":3383,"order":3535},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3543,"slug":3544,"category":3374,"order":3545},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":3547,"slug":3548,"category":3379,"order":3545},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":3550,"slug":3551,"category":3383,"order":3545},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3553,"slug":3554,"category":3356,"order":3555},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":3557,"slug":3558,"category":3379,"order":3555},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":3560,"slug":3561,"category":3383,"order":3555},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3563,"slug":3564,"category":3374,"order":3565},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":3567,"slug":3568,"category":3379,"order":3565},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":3570,"slug":3571,"category":3383,"order":3565},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3573,"slug":3574,"category":3374,"order":3575},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":3577,"slug":3578,"category":3379,"order":3575},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":3580,"slug":3581,"category":3383,"order":3575},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3583,"slug":3584,"category":3374,"order":3585},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":3587,"slug":3588,"category":3379,"order":3585},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":3590,"slug":3591,"category":3383,"order":3585},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3593,"slug":3594,"category":3356,"order":3595},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":3597,"slug":3598,"category":3379,"order":3595},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":3600,"slug":3601,"category":3383,"order":3595},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3603,"slug":3604,"category":3374,"order":3605},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":3607,"slug":3608,"category":3379,"order":3605},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":3610,"slug":3611,"category":3383,"order":3605},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3613,"slug":3614,"category":3374,"order":3615},"1966年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":3617,"slug":3618,"category":3379,"order":3615},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":3620,"slug":3621,"category":3383,"order":3615},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3623,"slug":3624,"category":3374,"order":3625},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":3627,"slug":3628,"category":3379,"order":3625},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":3630,"slug":3631,"category":3383,"order":3625},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3633,"slug":3634,"category":3356,"order":3635},"1967 巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":3637,"slug":3638,"category":3379,"order":3635},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":3640,"slug":3641,"category":3383,"order":3635},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3643,"slug":3644,"category":3374,"order":3645},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":3647,"slug":3648,"category":3379,"order":3645},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":3650,"slug":3651,"category":3383,"order":3645},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3653,"slug":3654,"category":3374,"order":3655},"1967年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":3657,"slug":3658,"category":3379,"order":3655},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":3660,"slug":3661,"category":3383,"order":3655},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3663,"slug":3664,"category":3374,"order":3665},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":3667,"slug":3668,"category":3379,"order":3665},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":3670,"slug":3671,"category":3383,"order":3665},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3673,"slug":3674,"category":3374,"order":3675},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":3677,"slug":3678,"category":3379,"order":3675},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":3680,"slug":3681,"category":3383,"order":3675},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3683,"slug":3684,"category":3356,"order":3685},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":3687,"slug":3688,"category":3379,"order":3685},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":3690,"slug":3691,"category":3383,"order":3685},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3693,"slug":3694,"category":3374,"order":3695},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":3697,"slug":3698,"category":3379,"order":3695},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":3700,"slug":3701,"category":3383,"order":3695},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3703,"slug":3704,"category":3374,"order":3705},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":3707,"slug":3708,"category":3379,"order":3705},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":3710,"slug":3711,"category":3356,"order":3712},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":3714,"slug":3715,"category":3379,"order":3712},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":3717,"slug":3718,"category":3374,"order":3719},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":3721,"slug":3722,"category":3379,"order":3719},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":3724,"slug":3725,"category":3374,"order":3726},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":3728,"slug":3729,"category":3379,"order":3726},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":3731,"slug":3732,"category":3374,"order":3733},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":3735,"slug":3736,"category":3379,"order":3733},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":3738,"slug":3739,"category":3374,"order":3740},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":3742,"slug":3743,"category":3379,"order":3740},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3745,"slug":3746,"category":3356,"order":3747},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":3749,"slug":3750,"category":3379,"order":3747},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":3752,"slug":3753,"category":3374,"order":3754},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":3756,"slug":3757,"category":3379,"order":3754},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":3759,"slug":3760,"category":3356,"order":3761},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":3763,"slug":3764,"category":3379,"order":3761},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":3766,"slug":3767,"category":3356,"order":3768},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":3770,"slug":3771,"category":3379,"order":3768},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":3773,"slug":3774,"category":3356,"order":3775},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":3777,"slug":3778,"category":3379,"order":3775},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":3780,"slug":3781,"category":3356,"order":3782},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":3784,"slug":3785,"category":3379,"order":3782},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3787,"slug":3788,"category":3356,"order":3789},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":3791,"slug":3792,"category":3379,"order":3789},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3794,"slug":3795,"category":3356,"order":3796},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":3798,"slug":3799,"category":3379,"order":3796},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":3801,"slug":3802,"category":3356,"order":3803},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":3805,"slug":3806,"category":3379,"order":3803},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":3808,"slug":3809,"category":3356,"order":3810},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":3812,"slug":3813,"category":3379,"order":3810},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":3815,"slug":3816,"category":3356,"order":3817},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":3819,"slug":3820,"category":3379,"order":3817},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":3822,"slug":3823,"category":3356,"order":3824},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":3826,"slug":3827,"category":3379,"order":3824},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":3829,"slug":3830,"category":3356,"order":3831},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":3833,"slug":3834,"category":3379,"order":3831},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":3836,"slug":3837,"category":3356,"order":3838},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":3840,"slug":3841,"category":3379,"order":3838},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3843,"slug":3844,"category":3356,"order":3845},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":3847,"slug":3848,"category":3379,"order":3845},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":3850,"slug":3851,"category":3356,"order":3852},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":3854,"slug":3855,"category":3379,"order":3852},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":3857,"slug":3858,"category":3356,"order":3859},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":3861,"slug":3862,"category":3379,"order":3859},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":3864,"slug":3865,"category":3356,"order":3866},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":3868,"slug":3869,"category":3379,"order":3866},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":3871,"slug":3872,"category":3356,"order":3873},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":3875,"slug":3876,"category":3379,"order":3873},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3878,"slug":3879,"category":3356,"order":3880},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":3882,"slug":3883,"category":3379,"order":3880},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3885,"slug":3886,"category":3356,"order":3887},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":3889,"slug":3890,"category":3379,"order":3887},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3892,"slug":3893,"category":3356,"order":3894},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":3896,"slug":3897,"category":3379,"order":3894},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":3899,"slug":3900,"category":3356,"order":3901},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":3903,"slug":3904,"category":3379,"order":3901},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":3906,"slug":3907,"category":3356,"order":3908},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":3910,"slug":3911,"category":3379,"order":3908},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":3913,"slug":3914,"category":3356,"order":3915},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":3917,"slug":3918,"category":3379,"order":3915},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":3920,"slug":3921,"category":3356,"order":3922},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":3924,"slug":3925,"category":3379,"order":3922},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3927,"slug":3928,"category":3356,"order":3929},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":3931,"slug":3932,"category":3379,"order":3929},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":3934,"slug":3935,"category":3356,"order":3936},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":3938,"slug":3939,"category":3379,"order":3936},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3941,"slug":3942,"category":3356,"order":3943},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":3945,"slug":3946,"category":3379,"order":3943},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":3948,"slug":3949,"category":3356,"order":3950},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":3952,"slug":3953,"category":3379,"order":3950},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":3955,"slug":3956,"category":3356,"order":3957},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":3959,"slug":3960,"category":3379,"order":3957},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":3962,"slug":3963,"category":3356,"order":3964},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":3966,"slug":3967,"category":3379,"order":3964},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3969,"slug":3970,"category":3356,"order":3971},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":3973,"slug":3974,"category":3379,"order":3971},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":3976,"slug":3977,"category":3356,"order":3978},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":3980,"slug":3981,"category":3379,"order":3978},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":3983,"slug":3984,"category":3356,"order":3985},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":3987,"slug":3988,"category":3379,"order":3985},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":5,"slug":3366,"category":3356,"order":3362},{"title":3991,"slug":3992,"category":3379,"order":3362},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3994,"slug":3995,"category":3356,"order":3996},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":3998,"slug":3999,"category":3379,"order":3996},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":4001,"slug":4002,"category":3356,"order":4003},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":4005,"slug":4006,"category":3379,"order":4003},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":4008,"slug":4009,"category":3356,"order":4010},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":4012,"slug":4013,"category":3379,"order":4010},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":4015,"slug":4016,"category":3356,"order":4017},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":4019,"slug":4020,"category":3379,"order":4017},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":4022,"slug":4023,"category":3356,"order":4024},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":4026,"slug":4027,"category":3379,"order":4024},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":4029,"slug":4030,"category":3356,"order":4031},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":4033,"slug":4034,"category":3379,"order":4031},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":4036,"slug":4037,"category":3356,"order":4038},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":4040,"slug":4041,"category":3379,"order":4038},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":4043,"slug":4044,"category":3356,"order":4045},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":4047,"slug":4048,"category":3379,"order":4045},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":4050,"slug":4051,"category":3356,"order":4052},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":4054,"slug":4055,"category":3379,"order":4052},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":4057,"slug":4058,"category":3356,"order":4059},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":4061,"slug":4062,"category":3379,"order":4059},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":4064,"slug":4065,"category":3356,"order":4066},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":4068,"slug":4069,"category":3379,"order":4066},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":4071,"slug":4072,"category":3356,"order":4073},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":4075,"slug":4076,"category":3379,"order":4073},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":4078,"slug":4079,"category":3356,"order":4080},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":4082,"slug":4083,"category":3379,"order":4080},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":4085,"slug":4086,"category":3356,"order":4087},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":4089,"slug":4090,"category":3379,"order":4087},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":4092,"slug":4093,"category":3356,"order":4094},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":4096,"slug":4097,"category":3379,"order":4094},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":4099,"slug":4100,"category":3356,"order":4101},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":4103,"slug":4104,"category":3379,"order":4101},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":4106,"slug":4107,"category":3356,"order":4108},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":4110,"slug":4111,"category":3379,"order":4108},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":4113,"slug":4114,"category":3356,"order":4115},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":4117,"slug":4118,"category":3379,"order":4115},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":4120,"slug":4121,"category":3356,"order":4122},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":4124,"slug":4125,"category":3379,"order":4122},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":4127,"slug":4128,"category":3356,"order":4129},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":4131,"slug":4132,"category":3379,"order":4129},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":4134,"slug":4135,"category":3356,"order":4136},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":4138,"slug":4139,"category":3379,"order":4136},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":4141,"slug":4142,"category":3356,"order":4143},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":4145,"slug":4146,"category":3379,"order":4143},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":4148,"slug":4149,"category":3356,"order":4150},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":4152,"slug":4153,"category":3379,"order":4150},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":4155,"slug":4156,"category":3356,"order":4157},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":4159,"slug":4160,"category":3379,"order":4157},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":4162,"slug":4163,"category":3356,"order":4164},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":4166,"slug":4167,"category":3379,"order":4164},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":4169,"slug":4170,"category":3379,"order":4171},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":4173,"slug":4174,"category":3379,"order":4175},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":4177,"slug":4178,"category":3379,"order":4179},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":4181,"slug":4182,"category":3379,"order":4183},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":4185,"slug":4186,"category":3379,"order":4187},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":4189,"slug":4190,"category":3379,"order":4191},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":4193,"slug":4194,"category":3379,"order":4195},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":4197,"slug":4198,"category":3379,"order":4199},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":4201,"slug":4202,"category":3379,"order":4203},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":4205,"slug":4206,"category":3379,"order":4207},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":4209,"slug":4210,"category":3379,"order":4211},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":4213,"slug":4214,"category":3379,"order":4215},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":4217,"slug":4218,"category":3379,"order":4219},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":4221,"slug":4222,"category":3379,"order":4223},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2015nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",114,{"title":4225,"slug":4226,"category":3379,"order":4227},"巴菲特：2015年扩大所得税抵免比提高最低工资更好","ba-fei-te-2015nian-kuo-da-suo-de-shui-di-mian-bi-ti-gao-zui-di-gong-zi-geng-hao",115,{"title":4229,"slug":4230,"category":3379,"order":4231},"巴菲特：2015年接受亚利桑那州立大学领导力教授杰夫·坎宁安的专访实录","ba-fei-te-2015nian-jie-shou-ya-li-sang-na-zhou-li-da-xue-ling-dao-li-jiao-shou-jie-fu-kan-ning-an-de-zhuan-fang-shi-lu",116,{"title":4233,"slug":4234,"category":3379,"order":4235},"巴菲特：2015年追忆唐基奥","ba-fei-te-2015nian-zhui-yi-tang-ji-ao",117,{"title":4237,"slug":4238,"category":3379,"order":4239},"巴菲特：2015慈善承诺倡议","ba-fei-te-2015ci-shan-cheng-nuo-chang-yi",118,{"title":4241,"slug":4242,"category":3379,"order":4243},"巴菲特：2016年对话八所商学院学生2016","ba-fei-te-2016nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-2016",119,{"title":4245,"slug":4246,"category":3379,"order":4247},"标题：《巴菲特：2017 年哥伦比亚大学高校面谈——人生最美好的事是什么？》","ba-fei-te-2017-nian-ge-lun-bi-ya-da-xue-gao-xiao-mian-tan-ren-sheng-zui-mei-hao-de-shi-shi-shi-me",120,{"title":4249,"slug":4250,"category":3379,"order":4251},"巴菲特：2017年对话北京大学学生：最好的投资是投资自己","ba-fei-te-2017nian-dui-hua-bei-jing-da-xue-xue-sheng-zui-hao-de-tou-zi-shi-tou-zi-zi-ji",121,{"title":4253,"slug":4254,"category":3379,"order":4255},"巴菲特：2017年接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",122,{"title":4257,"slug":4258,"category":3379,"order":4259},"巴菲特：2017年接受PBS NEWS专访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-pbs-newszhuan-fang",123,{"title":4261,"slug":4262,"category":3379,"order":4263},"巴菲特：2017年查理·罗斯访谈：比尔·盖茨与沃伦·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te",124,{"title":4265,"slug":4266,"category":3379,"order":4267},"巴菲特：2017年美国的未来","ba-fei-te-2017nian-mei-guo-de-wei-lai",125,{"title":4269,"slug":4270,"category":3379,"order":4271},"巴菲特：2018年再度邀请北大光华学子共进午餐问答全记录","ba-fei-te-2018nian-zai-du-yao-qing-bei-da-guang-hua-xue-zi-gong-jin-wu-can-wen-da-quan-ji-lu",126,{"title":4273,"slug":4274,"category":3379,"order":4275},"巴菲特：2018年时代周刊-分享美国财富的秘密","ba-fei-te-2018nian-shi-dai-zhou-kan-fen-xiang-mei-guo-cai-fu-de-mi-mi",127,{"title":4277,"slug":4278,"category":3379,"order":4279},"巴菲特：2019年5月雅虎财经专访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang",128,{"title":4281,"slug":4282,"category":3379,"order":4283},"巴菲特：2019年与芒格及比尔盖茨接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",129,{"title":4285,"slug":4286,"category":3379,"order":4287},"巴菲特：2020年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2020nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",130,{"title":4289,"slug":4290,"category":3379,"order":4291},"巴菲特：2020年给内布拉斯加大学林肯分校2020届毕业生的建议","ba-fei-te-2020nian-gei-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-2020jie-bi-ye-sheng-de-jian-yi",131,{"title":4293,"slug":4294,"category":3379,"order":4295},"巴菲特：2021年专访《成为巴菲特》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-zhuan-fang-cheng-wei-ba-fei-te",132,{"title":4297,"slug":4298,"category":3379,"order":4299},"巴菲特：2021年巴菲特芒格接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2021nian-ba-fei-te-mang-ge-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",133,{"title":4301,"slug":4302,"category":3379,"order":4303},"巴菲特：2021年让观众无言以对 !有史以来最鼓舞人心的演讲之一","ba-fei-te-2021nian-rang-guan-zhong-wu-yan-yi-dui-you-shi-yi-lai-zui-gu-wu-ren-xin-de-yan-jiang-zhi-yi",134,{"title":4305,"slug":4306,"category":3379,"order":4307},"巴菲特：2021年采访《沃伦·巴菲特的投资策略：如何像传奇一样生活和投资（完整访谈）》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-cai-fang-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-tou-zi-ce-lue-ru-he-xiang-chuan-qi-yi-yang-sheng-huo-he-tou-zi-wan-zheng-fang-tan",135,{"title":4309,"slug":4310,"category":3379,"order":4311},"巴菲特：2022年32 届年度格雷厄姆和多德早餐会","ba-fei-te-2022nian-32-jie-nian-du-ge-lei-e-mu-he-duo-de-zao-can-hui",136,{"title":4313,"slug":4314,"category":3379,"order":4315},"巴菲特：2022年和查理罗斯对谈","ba-fei-te-2022nian-he-cha-li-luo-si-dui-tan",137,{"title":4317,"slug":4318,"category":3379,"order":4319},"巴菲特：2023年 查理芒格：伯克希尔的总设计师","ba-fei-te-2023nian-cha-li-mang-ge-bo-ke-xi-er-de-zong-she-ji-shi",138,{"title":4321,"slug":4322,"category":3379,"order":4323},"巴菲特：初学者如何投资--3 条简单的规则","ba-fei-te-2023nian-chu-xue-zhe-ru-he-tou-zi-3-tiao-jian-dan-de-gui-ze",139,{"title":4325,"slug":4326,"category":3379,"order":4327},"巴菲特：2023年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2023nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",140,{"title":4329,"slug":4330,"category":3379,"order":4331},"巴菲特：每个投资者都会犯的 10 个错误","ba-fei-te-2023nian-mei-ge-tou-zi-zhe-du-hui-fan-de-10-ge-cuo-wu",141,{"title":4333,"slug":4334,"category":3379,"order":4335},"巴菲特：2025年接受cbs采访","ba-fei-te-2025nian-jie-shou-cbscai-fang",142,{"title":4337,"slug":4338,"category":3379,"order":4339},"2026伯克希尔股东大会 CNBC专访巴菲特（完整纯中文）","2026bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui-cnbczhuan-fang-ba-fei-te",143,{"title":4341,"slug":4342,"category":3379,"order":4343},"巴菲特：2026年最新采访 CNBC《财经论谈》","ba-fei-te-2026nian-zui-xin-cai-fang-cnbc-cai-jing-lun-tan",144,{"title":4345,"slug":4346,"category":3379,"order":4347},"伯克希尔50 周年：过去、现在和未来","bo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai",145,{"title":4349,"slug":4350,"category":3379,"order":4351},"巴菲特72条投资经典语录","ba-fei-te-72tiao-tou-zi-jing-dian-yu-lu",146,{"title":4353,"slug":4354,"category":3379,"order":4355},"巴菲特：你应该了解珠宝生意","ba-fei-te-ni-ying-gai-liao-jie-zhu-bao-sheng-yi",147,{"title":4357,"slug":4358,"category":3379,"order":4359},"巴菲特：如何建立能力圈","ba-fei-te-ru-he-jian-li-neng-li-quan",148,{"title":4361,"slug":4362,"category":3379,"order":4363},"巴菲特：巴菲特估值逻辑","ba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji",149,{"title":4365,"slug":4366,"category":3379,"order":4367},"康布斯：在普通股中寻找价值","kang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi",150,{"title":4369,"slug":4370,"category":3379,"order":4371},"考夫曼：Glenair 企业文化","kao-fu-man-glenair-qi-ye-wen-hua",151,[4373,4377,4380,4383,4386,4389,4392,4395,4398,4402,4406,4409,4412,4415,4418,4421,4424,4427,4430,4433,4436,4439,4442,4445,4448,4452,4455,4458,4461,4464,4467,4470,4473,4476,4479,4483,4486,4489,4492,4495,4498,4501,4504,4508,4511,4514,4517,4520,4523,4526,4529,4532,4535,4538,4541,4544,4547,4550,4553,4556,4559,4562,4565,4568,4571,4574,4577,4580,4583,4586,4589,4594,4598,4602,4606,4610,4614,4618,4622,4626,4630,4634,4638,4642,4646,4650,4654,4658,4662,4666,4670],{"title":4374,"slug":4375,"category":4376,"order":3375},"本分","benfen","核心哲学",{"title":4378,"slug":4379,"category":4376,"order":3342},"平常心","pingchangxin",{"title":4381,"slug":4382,"category":4376,"order":3345},"做对的事情","zuoduideshiqing",{"title":4384,"slug":4385,"category":4376,"order":3405},"把事情做对","bashiqingzuodui",{"title":4387,"slug":4388,"category":4376,"order":3415},"能力圈","nengliquan",{"title":4390,"slug":4391,"category":4376,"order":3425},"不做什么","buzuoshenme",{"title":4393,"slug":4394,"category":4376,"order":3435},"敢为天下后","ganweitianxiahou",{"title":4396,"slug":4397,"category":4376,"order":3445},"消费者导向","xiaofeizhedaoxiang",{"title":4399,"slug":4400,"category":4401,"order":3455},"价值投资","jiazhitouzi","投资理念",{"title":4403,"slug":4404,"category":4405,"order":3465},"负债","fuzhai","财务指标",{"title":4407,"slug":4408,"category":4401,"order":3465},"商业模式","shangyemoshi",{"title":4410,"slug":4411,"category":4401,"order":3475},"护城河","huchenghe",{"title":4413,"slug":4414,"category":4405,"order":3475},"净现金","jingxianjin",{"title":4416,"slug":4417,"category":4405,"order":3485},"开销合理性","kaixiaohelixing",{"title":4419,"slug":4420,"category":4401,"order":3485},"现金流","xianjinliu",{"title":4422,"slug":4423,"category":4405,"order":3495},"真实利润","zhenshilirun",{"title":4425,"slug":4426,"category":4401,"order":3495},"折现","zhexian",{"title":4428,"slug":4429,"category":4401,"order":3505},"安全边际","anquanbianji",{"title":4431,"slug":4432,"category":4405,"order":3505},"扣除商誉的净资产","jingzichan",{"title":4434,"slug":4435,"category":4401,"order":3515},"基本面","jibenmian",{"title":4437,"slug":4438,"category":4401,"order":3525},"机会成本","jihuichengben",{"title":4440,"slug":4441,"category":4401,"order":3535},"长期持有","zhangqichiyou",{"title":4443,"slug":4444,"category":4401,"order":3545},"投机","touji",{"title":4446,"slug":4447,"category":4401,"order":3555},"止损","zhisun",{"title":4449,"slug":4450,"category":4451,"order":3565},"企业文化","qiyewenhua","企业经营",{"title":4453,"slug":4454,"category":4451,"order":3575},"品牌","pinpai",{"title":4456,"slug":4457,"category":4451,"order":3585},"差异化","chayihua",{"title":4459,"slug":4460,"category":4451,"order":3595},"用户体验","yonghutiyan",{"title":4462,"slug":4463,"category":4451,"order":3605},"渠道","qudao",{"title":4465,"slug":4466,"category":4451,"order":3615},"平台","pingtai",{"title":4468,"slug":4469,"category":4451,"order":3625},"生态系统","shengtaixitong",{"title":4471,"slug":4472,"category":4451,"order":3635},"单一产品","danyichanpin",{"title":4474,"slug":4475,"category":4451,"order":3645},"造钟人","zaozhongren",{"title":4477,"slug":4478,"category":4451,"order":3655},"利润之上的追求","lirunzhishangdezhuiqiu",{"title":4480,"slug":4481,"category":4482,"order":3665},"进取心","jinquxin","品格与心性",{"title":4484,"slug":4485,"category":4482,"order":3675},"耐心","naixin",{"title":4487,"slug":4488,"category":4482,"order":3685},"责任心","zerenxin",{"title":4490,"slug":4491,"category":4482,"order":3695},"爱心","aixin",{"title":4493,"slug":4494,"category":4482,"order":3705},"信誉","xinyu",{"title":4496,"slug":4497,"category":4482,"order":3712},"正直","zhengzhi",{"title":4499,"slug":4500,"category":4482,"order":3719},"理性","lixing",{"title":4502,"slug":4503,"category":4482,"order":3726},"长期主义","zhangqizhuyi",{"title":4505,"slug":4506,"category":4507,"order":4164},"1999年 《都市快报》采访手记","duanyongping-1999nian-doushikuaibao-caifangshouji","访谈实录",{"title":4509,"slug":4510,"category":4507,"order":4171},"1999年 步步高讲话","duanyongping-1999nian-bubugaojianghua",{"title":4512,"slug":4513,"category":4507,"order":4175},"1999年做客人民大学精彩问答实录","duanyongping-1999nianzuokerenmindaxuejingcaiwendashilu",{"title":4515,"slug":4516,"category":4507,"order":4179},"2000年 《销售与市场》杂志专访","duanyongping-2000nian-xiaoshouyushichang-zazhizhuanfang",{"title":4518,"slug":4519,"category":4507,"order":4183},"2000年在央视“品牌与传播国际论坛”上的演讲","duanyongping-2000nianzaiyangshi-pinpaiyuchuanboguojiluntan-shangdeyanjiang",{"title":4521,"slug":4522,"category":4507,"order":4187},"2000追逐世界的节奏 —— 《经营者》杂志2000年，步步高总经理访谈记录","duanyongping-2000zhuizhushijiedejiezou-jingyingzhe-zazhi2000nian-bubugaozongjing",{"title":4524,"slug":4525,"category":4507,"order":4191},"2001《经营天下：高峰论坛 之 段永平》—— 2001年末中国20位行业巨头面对面访谈录","duanyongping-2001-jingyingtianxia-gaofengluntan-zhi-duanyongping-2001nianmozhong",{"title":4527,"slug":4528,"category":4507,"order":4195},"2001年 我为什么要去读书？ —— 《读者》2001年11月刊","duanyongping-2001nian-woweishenmeyaoqudushu-duzhe-2001nian11yuekan",{"title":4530,"slug":4531,"category":4507,"order":4199},"2001年《世界经理人文摘》专访","duanyongping-2001nian-shijiejinglirenwenzhai-zhuanfang",{"title":4533,"slug":4534,"category":4507,"order":4203},"2002年 CCTV2经济频道《卖点》栏目采访：投影机能否走进家庭？","duanyongping-2002nian-cctv2jingjipindao-maidian-lanmucaifang-touyingjinengfouzou",{"title":4536,"slug":4537,"category":4507,"order":4207},"2003年北京大学总裁班演讲座谈会全程实录","duanyongping-2003nianbeijingdaxuezongcaibanyanjiangzuotanhuiquanchengshilu",{"title":4539,"slug":4540,"category":4507,"order":4211},"2004财富人生—段永平 2004 采访","duanyongping-2004caifurensheng-duanyongping-2004-caifang",{"title":4542,"slug":4543,"category":4507,"order":4215},"2005年步步高十周年“记”念晚会：段永平发言","duanyongping-2005nianbubugaoshizhounian-ji-nianwanhui-duanyongpingfayan",{"title":4545,"slug":4546,"category":4507,"order":4219},"2006年 深度对话网易证券全程实录","duanyongping-2006nian-shenduduihuawangyizhengquanquanchengshilu",{"title":4548,"slug":4549,"category":4507,"order":4223},"2006年做客新浪财经频道聊天全实录","duanyongping-2006nianzuokexinlangcaijingpindaoliaotianquanshilu",{"title":4551,"slug":4552,"category":4507,"order":4227},"2006年浙大“实话实说”","duanyongping-2006nianzheda-shihuashishuo",{"title":4554,"slug":4555,"category":4507,"order":4231},"2007年与巴菲特共进午餐后网易专访","duanyongping-2007nianyubafeitegongjinwucanhouwangyizhuanfang",{"title":4557,"slug":4558,"category":4507,"order":4235},"2007年波士堂访谈","duanyongping-2007nianboshitangfangtan",{"title":4560,"slug":4561,"category":4507,"order":4239},"2009年 深度专访： 探讨公益人生，分享成功体会","duanyongping-2009nian-shenduzhuanfang-tantaogongyirensheng-fenxiangchenggongtihu",{"title":4563,"slug":4564,"category":4507,"order":4243},"2009年《21世纪经济报道》独家专访：我不认为巴菲特是股神（2009年）","duanyongping-2009nian-21shijijingjibaodao-dujiazhuanfang-woburenweibafeiteshigus",{"title":4566,"slug":4567,"category":4507,"order":4247},"2009浙大MBA分享：企业追求的是稳健的发展，基本功最重要","duanyongping-2009zhedambafenxiang-qiyezhuiqiudeshiwenjiandefazhan-jibengongzuizh",{"title":4569,"slug":4570,"category":4507,"order":4251},"2010年 步步高董事长段永平和人大校长纪宝成记者会实录","duanyongping-2010nian-bubugaodongshizhangduanyongpingherendaxiaozhangjibaochengj",{"title":4572,"slug":4573,"category":4507,"order":4255},"2011年买入苹果思考","duanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao",{"title":4575,"slug":4576,"category":4507,"order":4259},"2013年浙大演讲","duanyongping-2013nianzhedayanjiang",{"title":4578,"slug":4579,"category":4507,"order":4263},"2016年浙大60周年专访","duanyongping-2016nianzheda60zhounianzhuanfang",{"title":4581,"slug":4582,"category":4507,"order":4267},"2025年浙江大学演讲及问答完整版","duanyongping-2025nianzhejiangdaxueyanjiangjiwendawanzhengban",{"title":4584,"slug":4585,"category":4507,"order":4271},"2025年谈躺平与内卷、与王石交流子女教育","duanyongping-2025niantantangpingyuneijuan-yuwangshijiaoliuzinvjiaoyu",{"title":4587,"slug":4588,"category":4507,"order":4275},"2025年： 方三文对话段永平：做自己能够喜欢的事情很重要","duanyongping-2025nian-fangsanwenduihuaduanyongping-zuozijinenggouxihuandeshiqing",{"title":4590,"slug":4591,"category":4592,"order":4593},"问答录：第一章 投资大道","dadaotouziwendalu-diyizhangtouzidadao","投资问答录",200,{"title":4595,"slug":4596,"category":4592,"order":4597},"问答录：第二章 商业模式和企业文化","dadaotouziwendalu-dierzhangshangyemoshiheqiyewenhua",201,{"title":4599,"slug":4600,"category":4592,"order":4601},"问答录：第三章 公司点评","dadaotouziwendalu-disanzhanggongsidianping",202,{"title":4603,"slug":4604,"category":4592,"order":4605},"问答录：第四章 人生箴言","dadaotouziwendalu-disizhangrenshengzhenyan",203,{"title":4607,"slug":4608,"category":4592,"order":4609},"问答录：第五章 演讲与访谈","dadaotouziwendalu-diwuzhangyanjiangyufangtan",204,{"title":4611,"slug":4612,"category":4592,"order":4613},"问答录：第六章 更新","dadaotouziwendalu-diliuzhangduzhegengxin",205,{"title":4615,"slug":4616,"category":4592,"order":4617},"商业逻辑篇：第1节：伟大企业","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di1jie-weidaqiye",401,{"title":4619,"slug":4620,"category":4592,"order":4621},"商业逻辑篇：第2节：商业模式","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di2jie-shangyemoshi",402,{"title":4623,"slug":4624,"category":4592,"order":4625},"商业逻辑篇：第3节：企业文化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di3jie-qiyewenhua",403,{"title":4627,"slug":4628,"category":4592,"order":4629},"商业逻辑篇：第4节：产品、差异化与创新","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di4jie-chanpin-chayihua-yu-chuangxin",404,{"title":4631,"slug":4632,"category":4592,"order":4633},"商业逻辑篇：第5节：品牌、营销与广告","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di5jie-pinpai-yingxiao-yu-guanggao",405,{"title":4635,"slug":4636,"category":4592,"order":4637},"商业逻辑篇：第6节：收购和多元化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di6jie-shougouheduoyuanhua",406,{"title":4639,"slug":4640,"category":4592,"order":4641},"商业逻辑篇：第7节：Stop doing list（不为清单）","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di7jie-stop-doing-list-buweiqingdan",407,{"title":4643,"slug":4644,"category":4592,"order":4645},"投资问答录商业逻辑篇：前言：买股票就是买公司","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-qianyan-maiqushoujiiumaishangsi",408,{"title":4647,"slug":4648,"category":4592,"order":4649},"投资逻辑篇：第1章：投资理念","duanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian",410,{"title":4651,"slug":4652,"category":4592,"order":4653},"投资逻辑篇：第2章：投资理解","duanyongping-touziluoji-di2jie-touzilijie",411,{"title":4655,"slug":4656,"category":4592,"order":4657},"投资问答录：第3章 golf和投资","duanyongping-touziluoji-di3zhang-golfhetouzi",412,{"title":4659,"slug":4660,"category":4592,"order":4661},"投资逻辑篇：第4章 财务理解","duanyongping-touziwendalu-touziluoji-di4zhang-caiwulijie",413,{"title":4663,"slug":4664,"category":4592,"order":4665},"投资逻辑篇：第5章：估值逻辑","duanyongping-touziluoji-di5zhang-guzhiluoji",414,{"title":4667,"slug":4668,"category":4592,"order":4669},"投资逻辑篇：第6章 投资方法论","duanyongping-touziluoji-di6zhang-touzifangfalun",415,{"title":4671,"slug":4672,"category":4592,"order":4673},"投资逻辑篇：第7章：案例分析","duanyongping-touziluoji-di7zhang-anlifenxi",416,[4675,4678,4681,4684,4688,4692,4695,4699,4701,4704,4707,4710,4714,4717,4720,4723,4726,4730,4733,4736,4739,4742,4746,4749,4752,4754,4757,4760,4763,4766,4769,4772,4775,4778,4781,4784,4787,4790,4793,4796,4799,4802,4805,4808,4811,4814,4817,4820,4823,4826,4829,4832,4835,4838,4841,4844,4847,4850,4853,4856,4859,4862,4865,4868,4871,4874,4878,4881,4884,4887,4890,4894,4897,4900,4903],{"title":4387,"slug":4676,"category":4677,"order":3375},"ability-circle","决策与战略",{"title":4679,"slug":4680,"category":4677,"order":3342},"逆向思维","inversion",{"title":4437,"slug":4682,"category":4683,"order":3345},"opportunity-cost","经济学",{"title":4685,"slug":4686,"category":4687,"order":3405},"复利","compound-interest","数学与概率论",{"title":4689,"slug":4690,"category":4691,"order":3415},"激励机制","incentives","心理学",{"title":4693,"slug":4694,"category":4687,"order":3425},"概率思维","probabilistic-thinking",{"title":4696,"slug":4697,"category":4698,"order":3435},"二阶效应","second-order-effects","哲学与逻辑",{"title":4428,"slug":4700,"category":4677,"order":3445},"margin-of-safety",{"title":4702,"slug":4703,"category":4691,"order":3455},"心理误判","psychology-of-misjudgment",{"title":4705,"slug":4706,"category":4677,"order":3465},"检查清单","checklist",{"title":4708,"slug":4709,"category":4683,"order":3475},"规模优势","scale-advantage",{"title":4711,"slug":4712,"category":4713,"order":3485},"冗余与容错","redundancy","工程学\u002F系统",{"title":4715,"slug":4716,"category":4687,"order":3495},"排列组合","combinatorics",{"title":4718,"slug":4719,"category":4687,"order":3505},"费马-帕斯卡","fermat-pascal",{"title":4721,"slug":4722,"category":4687,"order":3515},"均值回归","regression-to-the-mean",{"title":4724,"slug":4725,"category":4687,"order":3525},"量化分析","quantitative-analysis",{"title":4727,"slug":4728,"category":4729,"order":3535},"临界点\u002F相变","critical-point-phase-transition","物理学",{"title":4731,"slug":4732,"category":4729,"order":3545},"平衡态","equilibrium",{"title":4734,"slug":4735,"category":4729,"order":3555},"熵增定律","entropy",{"title":4737,"slug":4738,"category":4729,"order":3565},"能量守恒","conservation-of-energy",{"title":4740,"slug":4741,"category":4729,"order":3575},"杠杆原理","leverage",{"title":4743,"slug":4744,"category":4745,"order":3585},"自然选择","natural-selection","生物学\u002F进化论",{"title":4747,"slug":4748,"category":4745,"order":3595},"物竞天择","competition-for-resources",{"title":4750,"slug":4751,"category":4745,"order":3605},"进化思维","evolutionary-thinking",{"title":4468,"slug":4753,"category":4745,"order":3615},"ecosystem",{"title":4755,"slug":4756,"category":4691,"order":3625},"爱好倾向","liking-tendency",{"title":4758,"slug":4759,"category":4691,"order":3635},"讨厌倾向","disliking-tendency",{"title":4761,"slug":4762,"category":4691,"order":3645},"避免怀疑倾向","doubt-avoidance-tendency",{"title":4764,"slug":4765,"category":4691,"order":3655},"一致性倾向","consistency-tendency",{"title":4767,"slug":4768,"category":4691,"order":3665},"好奇心倾向","curiosity-tendency",{"title":4770,"slug":4771,"category":4691,"order":3675},"康德式公平","kantian-fairness",{"title":4773,"slug":4774,"category":4691,"order":3685},"艳羡\u002F妒忌倾向","envy-jealousy-tendency",{"title":4776,"slug":4777,"category":4691,"order":3695},"反馈倾向","reciprocation-tendency",{"title":4779,"slug":4780,"category":4691,"order":3705},"权威误导","authority-misinfluence",{"title":4782,"slug":4783,"category":4691,"order":3712},"重视理由","reason-respecting-tendency",{"title":4785,"slug":4786,"category":4691,"order":3719},"过度乐观","over-optimism",{"title":4788,"slug":4789,"category":4691,"order":3726},"损失厌恶","loss-aversion",{"title":4791,"slug":4792,"category":4691,"order":3733},"否认倾向","denial-tendency",{"title":4794,"slug":4795,"category":4691,"order":3740},"过度反应","overreaction-tendency",{"title":4797,"slug":4798,"category":4691,"order":3747},"社群影响","social-influence",{"title":4800,"slug":4801,"category":4691,"order":3754},"压力倾向","stress-influence-tendency",{"title":4803,"slug":4804,"category":4691,"order":3761},"物质主义","materialism-tendency",{"title":4806,"slug":4807,"category":4691,"order":3768},"废话倾向","twaddle-tendency",{"title":4809,"slug":4810,"category":4691,"order":3775},"确认偏误","confirmation-bias",{"title":4812,"slug":4813,"category":4691,"order":3782},"锚定效应","anchoring-effect",{"title":4815,"slug":4816,"category":4691,"order":3789},"现时偏差","present-bias",{"title":4818,"slug":4819,"category":4691,"order":3796},"贪婪倾向","greed-tendency",{"title":4821,"slug":4822,"category":4683,"order":3803},"边际成本\u002F收益","marginal-cost-benefit",{"title":4824,"slug":4825,"category":4683,"order":3810},"供需关系","supply-and-demand",{"title":4827,"slug":4828,"category":4683,"order":3817},"帕累托最优","pareto-optimality",{"title":4830,"slug":4831,"category":4683,"order":3824},"竞争性毁灭","creative-destruction",{"title":4833,"slug":4834,"category":4677,"order":3831},"双轨分析","two-track-analysis",{"title":4836,"slug":4837,"category":4677,"order":3838},"非线性思维","nonlinear-thinking",{"title":4839,"slug":4840,"category":4677,"order":3845},"极化思考","extreme-thinking",{"title":4842,"slug":4843,"category":4677,"order":3852},"必要功","necessary-work",{"title":4845,"slug":4846,"category":4713,"order":3859},"停机问题","halting-problem",{"title":4848,"slug":4849,"category":4713,"order":3866},"闭环系统","closed-loop-system",{"title":4851,"slug":4852,"category":4713,"order":3873},"故障安全","fail-safe",{"title":4854,"slug":4855,"category":4713,"order":3880},"反向设计","reverse-design",{"title":4857,"slug":4858,"category":4713,"order":3887},"瓶颈分析","bottleneck-analysis",{"title":4860,"slug":4861,"category":4698,"order":3894},"第一性原理","first-principles",{"title":4863,"slug":4864,"category":4698,"order":3901},"证伪思维","falsification",{"title":4866,"slug":4867,"category":4698,"order":3908},"奥卡姆剃刀","occams-razor",{"title":4869,"slug":4870,"category":4698,"order":3915},"中道思维","middle-way",{"title":4872,"slug":4873,"category":4698,"order":3922},"不可知论","agnosticism",{"title":4875,"slug":4876,"category":4877,"order":3929},"大数定律","law-of-large-numbers","统计学",{"title":4879,"slug":4880,"category":4877,"order":3936},"样本偏差","sample-bias",{"title":4882,"slug":4883,"category":4877,"order":3943},"相关性≠因果","correlation-not-causation",{"title":4885,"slug":4886,"category":4877,"order":3950},"幸存者偏差","survivorship-bias",{"title":4888,"slug":4889,"category":4877,"order":3957},"基本比率","base-rate",{"title":4891,"slug":4892,"category":4893,"order":3964},"社会认同","social-proof","社会学",{"title":4895,"slug":4896,"category":4893,"order":3971},"部落本能","tribal-instinct",{"title":4898,"slug":4899,"category":4893,"order":3978},"金蛋定律","golden-egg-rule",{"title":4901,"slug":4902,"category":4893,"order":3985},"互利共生","mutualism",{"title":4904,"slug":4905,"category":4893,"order":3362},"激励传导","incentive-transmission",1778291661187]