[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3564},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":2029,"library-sidebar-dao":3031,"library-sidebar-models":3332},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":2015,"date":2016,"description":2017,"extension":2018,"meta":2019,"navigation":2020,"order":2021,"path":2022,"seo":2023,"seoDescription":2017,"seoTitle":2024,"slug":2025,"stem":2026,"__hash__":2027,"_collection":2028},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2001 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1999},"minimark",[9,13,17,21,582,585,588,591,603,607,612,620,623,626,629,636,643,650,653,663,674,681,684,687,691,694,697,708,711,714,717,720,723,725,728,731,733,736,739,746,749,752,755,758,760,763,766,769,776,778,781,784,787,790,793,796,799,802,805,808,811,979,982,993,996,999,1012,1015,1018,1021,1024,1038,1041,1048,1062,1069,1076,1079,1082,1086,1089,1092,1095,1102,1105,1107,1114,1117,1120,1123,1126,1128,1131,1134,1137,1140,1142,1145,1149,1156,1162,1165,1168,1171,1174,1181,1184,1190,1201,1204,1207,1210,1583,1588,1593,1596,1602,1605,1608,1613,1616,1619,1624,1627,1630,1635,1638,1643,1646,1649,1652,1655,1658,1661,1666,1669,1672,1814,1817,1832,1835,1838,1840,1847,1850,1853,1856,1859,1862,1865,1868,1870,1873,1876,1879,1882,1884,1887,1890,1893,1900,1903,1910,1913,1919,1922,1924,1929,1932,1935,1938,1941,1944,1951,1954,1957,1960,1963,1966,1969,1976,1979,1982,1984,1987,1990,1993,1996],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2001-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},"注：以下业绩对比表刊印在年报中董事长信函的对页，信中有所引用。",[18,19,20],"h3",{"id":20},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[22,23,24,43],"table",{},[25,26,27],"thead",{},[28,29,30,34,37,40],"tr",{},[31,32,33],"th",{},"年份",[31,35,36],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比 (1)",[31,38,39],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比 (2)",[31,41,42],{},"相对结果 (1)-(2)",[44,45,46,61,75,89,102,116,130,144,158,172,186,200,214,227,241,254,268,282,296,309,323,337,349,362,375,389,403,417,429,443,457,470,484,498,512,526,540,554,568],"tbody",{},[28,47,48,52,55,58],{},[49,50,51],"td",{},"1965",[49,53,54],{},"23.8",[49,56,57],{},"10.0",[49,59,60],{},"13.8",[28,62,63,66,69,72],{},[49,64,65],{},"1966",[49,67,68],{},"20.3",[49,70,71],{},"(11.7)",[49,73,74],{},"32.0",[28,76,77,80,83,86],{},[49,78,79],{},"1967",[49,81,82],{},"11.0",[49,84,85],{},"30.9",[49,87,88],{},"(19.9)",[28,90,91,94,97,99],{},[49,92,93],{},"1968",[49,95,96],{},"19.0",[49,98,82],{},[49,100,101],{},"8.0",[28,103,104,107,110,113],{},[49,105,106],{},"1969",[49,108,109],{},"16.2",[49,111,112],{},"(8.4)",[49,114,115],{},"24.6",[28,117,118,121,124,127],{},[49,119,120],{},"1970",[49,122,123],{},"12.0",[49,125,126],{},"3.9",[49,128,129],{},"8.1",[28,131,132,135,138,141],{},[49,133,134],{},"1971",[49,136,137],{},"16.4",[49,139,140],{},"14.6",[49,142,143],{},"1.8",[28,145,146,149,152,155],{},[49,147,148],{},"1972",[49,150,151],{},"21.7",[49,153,154],{},"18.9",[49,156,157],{},"2.8",[28,159,160,163,166,169],{},[49,161,162],{},"1973",[49,164,165],{},"4.7",[49,167,168],{},"(14.8)",[49,170,171],{},"19.5",[28,173,174,177,180,183],{},[49,175,176],{},"1974",[49,178,179],{},"5.5",[49,181,182],{},"(26.4)",[49,184,185],{},"31.9",[28,187,188,191,194,197],{},[49,189,190],{},"1975",[49,192,193],{},"21.9",[49,195,196],{},"37.2",[49,198,199],{},"(15.3)",[28,201,202,205,208,211],{},[49,203,204],{},"1976",[49,206,207],{},"59.3",[49,209,210],{},"23.6",[49,212,213],{},"35.7",[28,215,216,219,221,224],{},[49,217,218],{},"1977",[49,220,185],{},[49,222,223],{},"(7.4)",[49,225,226],{},"39.3",[28,228,229,232,235,238],{},[49,230,231],{},"1978",[49,233,234],{},"24.0",[49,236,237],{},"6.4",[49,239,240],{},"17.6",[28,242,243,246,248,251],{},[49,244,245],{},"1979",[49,247,213],{},[49,249,250],{},"18.2",[49,252,253],{},"17.5",[28,255,256,259,262,265],{},[49,257,258],{},"1980",[49,260,261],{},"19.3",[49,263,264],{},"32.3",[49,266,267],{},"(13.0)",[28,269,270,273,276,279],{},[49,271,272],{},"1981",[49,274,275],{},"31.4",[49,277,278],{},"(5.0)",[49,280,281],{},"36.4",[28,283,284,287,290,293],{},[49,285,286],{},"1982",[49,288,289],{},"40.0",[49,291,292],{},"21.4",[49,294,295],{},"18.6",[28,297,298,301,303,306],{},[49,299,300],{},"1983",[49,302,264],{},[49,304,305],{},"22.4",[49,307,308],{},"9.9",[28,310,311,314,317,320],{},[49,312,313],{},"1984",[49,315,316],{},"13.6",[49,318,319],{},"6.1",[49,321,322],{},"7.5",[28,324,325,328,331,334],{},[49,326,327],{},"1985",[49,329,330],{},"48.2",[49,332,333],{},"31.6",[49,335,336],{},"16.6",[28,338,339,342,345,347],{},[49,340,341],{},"1986",[49,343,344],{},"26.1",[49,346,295],{},[49,348,322],{},[28,350,351,354,356,359],{},[49,352,353],{},"1987",[49,355,171],{},[49,357,358],{},"5.1",[49,360,361],{},"14.4",[28,363,364,367,370,372],{},[49,365,366],{},"1988",[49,368,369],{},"20.1",[49,371,336],{},[49,373,374],{},"3.5",[28,376,377,380,383,386],{},[49,378,379],{},"1989",[49,381,382],{},"44.4",[49,384,385],{},"31.7",[49,387,388],{},"12.7",[28,390,391,394,397,400],{},[49,392,393],{},"1990",[49,395,396],{},"7.4",[49,398,399],{},"(3.1)",[49,401,402],{},"10.5",[28,404,405,408,411,414],{},[49,406,407],{},"1991",[49,409,410],{},"39.6",[49,412,413],{},"30.5",[49,415,416],{},"9.1",[28,418,419,422,424,427],{},[49,420,421],{},"1992",[49,423,68],{},[49,425,426],{},"7.6",[49,428,388],{},[28,430,431,434,437,440],{},[49,432,433],{},"1993",[49,435,436],{},"14.3",[49,438,439],{},"10.1",[49,441,442],{},"4.2",[28,444,445,448,451,454],{},[49,446,447],{},"1994",[49,449,450],{},"13.9",[49,452,453],{},"1.3",[49,455,456],{},"12.6",[28,458,459,462,465,468],{},[49,460,461],{},"1995",[49,463,464],{},"43.1",[49,466,467],{},"37.6",[49,469,179],{},[28,471,472,475,478,481],{},[49,473,474],{},"1996",[49,476,477],{},"31.8",[49,479,480],{},"23.0",[49,482,483],{},"8.8",[28,485,486,489,492,495],{},[49,487,488],{},"1997",[49,490,491],{},"34.1",[49,493,494],{},"33.4",[49,496,497],{},".7",[28,499,500,503,506,509],{},[49,501,502],{},"1998",[49,504,505],{},"48.3",[49,507,508],{},"28.6",[49,510,511],{},"19.7",[28,513,514,517,520,523],{},[49,515,516],{},"1999",[49,518,519],{},".5",[49,521,522],{},"21.0",[49,524,525],{},"(20.5)",[28,527,528,531,534,537],{},[49,529,530],{},"2000",[49,532,533],{},"6.5",[49,535,536],{},"(9.1)",[49,538,539],{},"15.6",[28,541,542,545,548,551],{},[49,543,544],{},"2001",[49,546,547],{},"(6.2)",[49,549,550],{},"(11.9)",[49,552,553],{},"5.7",[28,555,556,559,562,565],{},[49,557,558],{},"1965-2001年年均增长率",[49,560,561],{},"22.6%",[49,563,564],{},"11.0%",[49,566,567],{},"11.6%",[28,569,570,573,576,579],{},[49,571,572],{},"1964-2001年累计总收益",[49,574,575],{},"194,936%",[49,577,578],{},"4,742%",[49,580,581],{},"190,194%",[14,583,584],{},"注：",[14,586,587],{},"数据以日历年度为准，以下年份除外：1965年和1966年截至9月30日；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。",[14,589,590],{},"自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市值计价其持有的权益证券，而此前的要求是按成本与市值孰低法计价。本表中，伯克希尔1978年及以前的数据已按新准则进行了重述。其他各方面均采用最初公布的数据计算。",[14,592,593,594,598,599,602],{},"标普500指数的数据为",[595,596,597],"strong",{},"税前","数字，而伯克希尔的数据为",[595,600,601],{},"税后","数字。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司只是简单地持有标普500指数并计提相应税款，那么在指数上涨的年份，其业绩将落后于标普500；而在指数下跌的年份，则会超越标普500。从长期来看，税收成本将导致巨大的累计落后幅度。",[18,604,606],{"id":605},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,608,609],{},[595,610,611],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,613,614,615,619],{},"2001年伯克希尔的净资产",[616,617,618],"em",{},"减少","了37.7亿美元，A\u002FB股每股账面价值下降6.2%。自现任管理层接手的37年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元成长到目前的37,920美元，年复合增长率约为22.6%。(*)",[14,621,622],{},"(*): 本报告中所有每股数据均以伯克希尔A股为基准，这是1996年之前公司唯一流通在外的股票。B股拥有A股1\u002F30的经济权益。",[14,624,625],{},"在这37年间，每股内在价值的增长速度一直快于账面价值，不过在2001年，内在价值的下降幅度可能比账面价值略小一些。关于内在价值的说明，请参阅第62页开始的股东手册。我建议新加入的股东认真阅读这本手册，以便熟悉伯克希尔的核心经营原则。",[14,627,628],{},"两年前报告1999年业绩时，我曾说我们经历了有史以来最差的表现，无论从绝对还是相对角度来看都是如此。我还补充道”我们更看重相对业绩”——这个观点自1956年5月5日我成立第一个投资合伙公司时就已确立。当天晚上与七位创始有限合伙人会面时，我给了他们一份题为”基本原则”的简短文件，其中有这么一条：“我们业绩的好坏，要以证券市场的整体表现来衡量。”一开始我们以道琼斯工业指数作为基准，后来改用被更广泛接受的标普500指数。自1965年以来的对比记录列示在年报首页上；去年伯克希尔以5.7个百分点的优势胜出。",[14,630,631,632,635],{},"有些人并不认同我们聚焦于相对业绩的做法，认为”相对业绩又不能当饭吃”。但如果你跟伯克希尔副董事长查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 和我持同样看法——预期长期持有标普500指数将产生相当令人满意的回报——那么对于长期投资者来说，每年哪怕只比该指数多赢一点点，回报",[616,633,634],{},"必然","十分可观。就好比你拥有喜诗糖果 (See’s Candies) 那样一家盈利丰厚但高度季节性的企业（基本上每年夏天都在亏钱），照样可以全年吃穿不愁。同理，投资回报只要能持续跑赢大盘，无论绝对数字如何波动，你照样可以大快朵颐。",[14,637,638,639,642],{},"虽然去年我们公司的整体表现还算令人满意，但",[616,640,641],{},"我个人","的表现则完全是另一回事。我管理着伯克希尔大部分的股票投资组合，我的成绩很差——而且这种状况已经持续好几年了。更糟糕的是，我明知安全防线的重要性，却允许通用再保险 (General Re) 在缺乏这道防线的情况下承接业务，而9月11日这个错误终于找上了我们。关于我的失误以及我们的补救措施，后面还会详细说明。",[14,644,645,646,649],{},"1956年的另一条基本原则至今仍然适用：“我无法向合伙人保证业绩。”但查理和我",[616,647,648],{},"可以","向各位保证：在你们持有伯克希尔股票期间，你们的经济成果将与我们的完全一致。我们不会通过领取现金薪酬、限制性股票或股票期权来使自己的回报优于你们。",[14,651,652],{},"此外，我会继续将个人99%以上的身家放在伯克希尔上。我和我妻子从来没有卖过一股伯克希尔的股票，以后也不打算卖。查理跟我对近几年司空见惯的一种现象感到深恶痛绝：股东们蒙受了数十亿美元的损失，而那些一手制造灾难的CEO、发起人和公司高层却带着巨额财富全身而退。更有甚者，其中许多人一边公开鼓励投资者买进股票，一边暗地里抛售自己的持股，有时还使用极其隐蔽的手法。可耻的是，这些企业领导人把股东当作冤大头，而非合伙人。",[14,654,655,656,659,660,662],{},"虽然安然公司 (Enron) 已经成为股东利益被肆意践踏的标志性案例，但美国企业界不乏其他同样恶劣的行径。我听过一个故事，很好地说明了经理人对待股东的那种太常见的心态：在一个派对上，一位妖娆的美女款款走向一位CEO，用那湿润的双唇娇声道：“只要你开口，我",[616,657,658],{},"什么都","愿意做——",[616,661,658],{},"行。”这位总裁毫不犹豫地回答：“那帮我把股票期权重新定价吧。”",[14,664,665,666,669,670,673],{},"关于伯克希尔，最后再补充一点：未来我们不可能再复制过去的辉煌战绩。当然，查理和我会竭力争取高于平均水平的业绩，也绝不会因平庸的表现而感到满足。但伯克希尔如今面临两个与以往截然不同的条件：当年，我们常常能以比现在低得多的价格买到优质企业和证券；更重要的是，当年我们运用的资金规模也比现在小得多。许多年前，一个好的1000万美元投资机会就能为我们创造奇迹（想想1973年投资华盛顿邮报 (Washington Post) 或1976年投资盖可保险 (GEICO) 的案例）。如今，就算有",[616,667,668],{},"十个","这样的机会，每个都增值到",[616,671,672],{},"三倍","，也仅仅能让伯克希尔的净资产增加0.25%。我们现在需要”大象”级别的猎物才能取得实质性的增长——而这样的猎物太难找了。",[14,675,676,677,680],{},"从好的方面说，我们拥有一支可以比肩任何公司的卓越经理人团队。（各位可以在罗伯特·P·迈尔斯 (Robert P. Miles) 的新书《沃伦·巴菲特的CEO们》(",[616,678,679],{},"The Warren Buffett CEO",") 中读到他们的故事。）更重要的是，他们经营的业务在很大程度上都具有从优秀到超群的经济特性。这些经理人的能力、精力和忠诚度简直无与伦比。伯克希尔走过37年，旗下从未有任何一位子公司CEO选择离开我们另谋高就。",[14,682,683],{},"2001年，我们的明星经营团队又迎来了新的生力军。首先，我们完成了2000年已经谈好的两桩收购——萧氏工业 (Shaw Industries) 和佳斯迈威 (Johns Manville)。接着又收购了另外两家公司——迈迪科工业 (MiTek) 和XTRA，并签约准备收购第三和第四家：乐森卓尔 (Larson-Juhl) 刚刚完成交割，而鲜果布衣 (Fruit of the Loom) 一旦债权人批准我们的报价就将完成。所有这些企业都由精明、经验丰富且值得信赖的CEO所领导。",[14,685,686],{},"此外，去年所有的收购都是以现金支付的，这意味着我们的股东在不放弃对现有优秀企业任何权益的情况下，又成为了这些新企业的所有者。我们将继续坚持这个屡试不爽的方略：努力提升现有优秀企业的价值，增添同等品质的新企业，并且极不情愿地才会增发股份。",[18,688,690],{"id":689},"_2001年的并购","2001年的并购",[14,692,693],{},"就在去年股东会的前几天，我收到从圣路易斯寄来的一个沉甸甸的包裹，里面装着一块其貌不扬的金属零件，我完全猜不出它是做什么用的。包裹里还附了一封信，来自一家叫迈迪科 (MiTek) 的公司CEO吉恩·图姆斯 (Gene Toombs)。他解释说迈迪科是我收到的这个东西——一种用于制造屋顶桁架的”连接板”——的全球领先制造商。Gene还说迈迪科的英国母公司有意出售这家公司，而他认为伯克希尔是最理想的买家。我很喜欢他信中的口吻，当下就给他打了个电话。不到一分钟我就确认了：他是我们喜欢的那类经理人，迈迪科是我们喜欢的那类企业。我们向英国母公司提出了现金收购要约，很快就成交了。",[14,695,696],{},"Gene带领的经营团队对公司信心十足，也希望参与这次收购。于是我们安排了迈迪科团队中的55名成员购买了公司10%的股权，每人至少出资10万美元现金。其中很多人是借钱来参与投资的。",[14,698,699,700,703,704,707],{},"如果他们拿到的是股票期权，那就",[616,701,702],{},"不会","像现在这样——这些经理人都是真正的",[616,705,706],{},"所有者","。他们要面对决策带来的下跌风险，也能享受上涨的好处。他们承担真实的资金成本。而且他们没法”重新定价”自己的股份：买入价是多少，就是多少。",[14,709,710],{},"查理跟我非常欣赏迈迪科身上这种高品质的、真正的企业家精神，我们预言这将是一个多赢的结局。",[712,713],"hr",{},[14,715,716],{},"2000年初，我的朋友朱利安·罗伯逊 (Julian Robertson) 宣布将解散他的投资合伙公司——老虎基金 (Tiger Fund)，除了四项主要持股外，其余投资将全部清算。其中之一就是XTRA，一家货柜拖车租赁业的领导企业。我随即打电话给Julian，问他是否考虑出售XTRA的股份，或者公司管理层是否会考虑整体出售。Julian建议我联系XTRA的CEO卢·鲁宾 (Lew Rubin)。我跟Lew聊得很愉快，但很明显当时双方谈不成交易。",[14,718,719],{},"到了2001年6月，Julian打电话告诉我他决定出售XTRA的股份，于是我恢复了与Lew的谈判。XTRA董事会接受了我们的方案，交易将通过一项截止日期为9月11日的公开要约收购来完成。要约条件中包含惯常的”退出条款”，允许我们在要约到期前若股市关闭则撤回收购。在9月11日那天的大部分时间里，Lew经历了一场极其痛苦的煎熬：首先，他有一个在世贸中心工作的女婿下落不明；其次，他清楚我们完全有权退出收购。所幸故事有个圆满的结局：Lew的女婿安然脱险，伯克希尔也如期完成了交易。",[14,721,722],{},"货柜拖车租赁是一项周期性业务，但从长期来看，我们应该能获得不错的回报。Lew为伯克希尔带来了新的人才，我们也期待能在租赁领域进一步拓展。",[712,724],{},[14,726,727],{},"12月3日，我接到乐森卓尔 (Larson-Juhl) 的老板克雷格·庞齐奥 (Craig Ponzio) 的电话，该公司是美国定制画框行业的龙头。Craig在1981年买下了这家公司（此前他在大学期间就在该公司的制造工厂打过工），此后将公司的营业额从300万美元做到了3亿美元。虽然在Craig打电话来之前，我从没听说过乐森卓尔这个名字，但几分钟的交谈就让我感觉我们很可能谈成一笔交易。他对公司业务的描述坦率直接，关心买家是什么样的人，出价也很务实。两天后，Craig和他的CEO史蒂夫·麦肯齐 (Steve McKenzie) 来到奥马哈，九十分钟内我们就达成了协议。十天后正式签约。",[14,729,730],{},"乐森卓尔在全美服务约1.8万家画框装裱店，同时也是加拿大和欧洲大部分地区的行业领导者。我们期待未来有机会进行更多互补性的收购。",[712,732],{},[14,734,735],{},"在我写这封信的此刻，债权人正在考虑我们对鲜果布衣 (Fruit of the Loom) 提出的收购方案。该公司几年前因负债过重加上管理不善而申请破产。而在更早之前很多年，我个人就曾与鲜果布衣有过一段渊源。",[14,737,738],{},"1955年8月，我是格雷厄姆-纽曼公司 (Graham-Newman Corporation) 仅有的五名员工之一（包含两位秘书），为这家纽约投资公司的三位经理人工作。当时格雷厄姆-纽曼控制着费城里丁煤铁公司 (Philadelphia and Reading Coal and Iron，简称”P&R”)，一家无烟煤生产商，拥有多余的现金、可结转的税务亏损以及日益萎缩的业务。那时候，我将个人有限资产的相当大一部分投资在P&R的股票上，这充分反映了我对三位老板——本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham)、杰瑞·纽曼 (Jerry Newman) 和霍华德·纽曼 (Howard “Micky” Newman)——投资才能的信心。",[14,740,741,742,745],{},"当P&R以1500万美元从杰克·戈德法布 (Jack Goldfarb) 手中买下联合内衣公司 (Union Underwear Company) 时，这份信心得到了丰厚的回报。联合公司（当时只是鲜果布衣品牌的被授权生产商）专门生产鲜果布衣的内衣。该公司拥有500万美元的现金——其中250万美元被P&R用于支付收购款——每年的税前利润约为300万美元，而这些利润可以利用P&R的税务亏损来抵税。还有更妙的：剩余1250万美元尾款中，整整有900万美元是用无息票据支付的，只需从联合公司未来年度超过100万美元的收益中提取50%来偿还。（",[616,743,744],{},"那","才是黄金年代啊，每当想起这类交易我就浑身起鸡皮疙瘩。）",[14,747,748],{},"后来，联合公司进一步买下了鲜果布衣的品牌授权方，并跟P&R一起并入了西北工业 (Northwest Industries)。鲜果布衣后来的年税前利润一度超过2亿美元。",[14,750,751],{},"约翰·霍兰德 (John Holland) 是鲜果布衣最辉煌时期的掌舵者。然而1996年John退休后，继任管理层大举负债，部分资金用于一系列令人失望的收购。公司最终宣告破产。John随后被重新聘回，着手对运营进行大刀阔斧的改革。在John回来之前，交货混乱不堪，成本飙升，与主要客户的关系严重恶化。John在纠正这些问题的同时，还将臃肿的员工队伍从4万人裁减至2.3万人。简言之，他正在恢复鲜果布衣昔日的荣光，只不过如今的产业竞争环境已远比从前激烈。",[14,753,754],{},"介入鲜果布衣的破产程序后，我们向债权人提交了一份收购方案，其中不附加任何融资条件，尽管我们的报价必须在长达数月的时间内保持有效。不过我们坚持了一个非常不寻常的条件：John必须在我们接手后继续担任CEO。在我们看来，John和这个品牌才是鲜果布衣最关键的资产。",[14,756,757],{},"在这笔交易中，我得到了我的朋友和昔日老板米基·纽曼 (Micky Newman) 的大力帮助，他今年已经81岁了。善有善报，因果循环。",[712,759],{},[14,761,762],{},"我们旗下的子公司去年还进行了几笔”补强收购”，其中有一笔我忍不住要跟大家说说。12月份，弗兰克·鲁尼 (Frank Rooney) 打电话告诉我，布朗鞋业 (H.H. Brown) 正在以70万美元的价格收购Acme靴子的库存和商标。",[14,764,765],{},"这听起来好像没什么大不了。但——你敢信吗？——Acme当年是P&R的第二笔收购标的，交易发生在我1956年春天离开格雷厄姆-纽曼公司前不久。收购价为320万美元，其中部分同样以无息票据支付，买下的是一家年营业额700万美元的企业。",[14,767,768],{},"P&R并入西北工业后，Acme成长为全球最大的靴子制造商，每年的利润是当初P&R投资成本的好几倍。但企业终究还是走了下坡路，从此一蹶不振，以至于我们最后只花了区区70万美元就买下了它的残存资产。",[14,770,771,772,775],{},"在本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 和戴维·多德 (Dave Dodd) 合著的《证券分析》(",[616,773,774],{},"Security Analysis",") 扉页上，他们引用了贺拉斯 (Horace) 的名言：“现在已然衰朽者，将来可能重放异彩；现在备受青睐者，将来却可能黯然失色。”距我初读这句话已经52年了，随着岁月的流逝，我对它对商业和投资所揭示的真理愈发感慨。",[712,777],{},[14,779,780],{},"除了补强收购之外，我们的经理人还在不断寻找内生增长的机会。说到这里，两年前我给大家讲过威利家具 (R.C. Willey) 进军博伊西 (Boise) 的故事，现在有后续了。各位可能还记得，威利家具的董事长比尔·柴尔德 (Bill Child) 想把他的家具业务从犹他州向外拓展——他的公司在犹他州的年营业额超过3亿美元（值得一提的是，48年前Bill接手时营业额只有25万美元）。而且他们是在坚持周日不营业这一违反传统零售业惯例的政策下取得这一霸主地位的。我当时很怀疑这个政策能否在博伊西——或者说犹他州以外的任何地方——继续奏效。毕竟，周日可是很多消费者最爱逛街的日子。",[14,782,783],{},"Bill当时坚持做一件非同寻常的事：他要自掏腰包1100万美元建造博伊西的新店，如果经营成功，再以成本价（不计利息！）卖给伯克希尔。如果失败了，Bill将自己保留这家店并承担处置亏损。正如我在1999年年报中告诉各位的那样，新店一开张就大获成功——而且此后还在持续增长。",[14,785,786],{},"博伊西新店开张后不久，Bill又建议我们去拉斯维加斯试试，这一次我更加怀疑了。我们怎么可能在这么大的都市做生意，还在所有竞争对手大赚特赚的周日关门歇业呢？不过在博伊西经验的鼓舞下，我们还是在拉斯维加斯旁边高速发展的亨德森市 (Henderson) 开了一家店。",[14,788,789],{},"结果呢：这家店的营业额打破了威利家具旗下所有连锁店的记录，远超当地所有竞争对手，是我原先预期的两倍。10月份在进行了几周的试营业和出色的销售之后，我受邀在盛大开业典礼上剪彩——就像在博伊西时一样，我向在场人群暗示这家新店是我的主意。",[14,791,792],{},"没人信。如今，每当我对零售业高谈阔论时，伯克希尔的人只会说：“那Bill怎么看？”（不过我必须给自己划一条底线——如果他敢建议周六也歇业，那可就走着瞧了。）",[18,794,795],{"id":795},"财产意外险的经营之道",[14,797,798],{},"我们最主要的业务是保险——当然其他业务也同样重要。因此，要理解伯克希尔，你就必须懂得如何评估一家保险公司。关键的决定因素有三个：(1) 保险业务所能产生的浮存金规模；(2) 浮存金的成本；(3) 最关键的是，这两个因素的长期前景。",[14,800,801],{},"首先说明一下，浮存金是一笔我们持有但并不归我们所有的资金。在保险经营中，浮存金之所以产生，是因为保险公司先收取保费，之后才支付理赔，而这个时间间隔有时长达数年。在此期间，保险公司可以将这笔资金用于投资。这项惬意的活动通常伴随着一个不利条件：保险公司收取的保费往往不足以覆盖最终必须支付的损失和费用。由此产生的”承保损失”，就是浮存金的成本。如果一家保险企业的浮存金成本长期低于其通过其他渠道获取资金的成本，这家企业就有存在的价值。但如果浮存金成本高于市场资金利率，这家企业就是一颗酸柠檬。",[14,803,804],{},"从历史记录来看，伯克希尔一直以极低的成本获取浮存金。事实上，在我们经营保险业务的这些年里，大约有一半的时间，浮存金成本甚至低于零——也就是说，我们因为帮别人保管资金反而还获得了报酬。不过最近几年，我们的成本太高了，2001年更是高得吓人。",[14,806,807],{},"下表显示了伯克希尔自35年前收购国民保险公司 (National Indemnity Company)（其传统业务包含在”其他直保”项下）进入保险业以来，各保险业务板块产生的浮存金：",[14,809,810],{},"年末浮存金（百万美元）",[22,812,813,834],{},[25,814,815],{},[28,816,817,819,822,825,828,831],{},[31,818,33],{},[31,820,821],{},"盖可保险 GEICO",[31,823,824],{},"通用再保险 General Re",[31,826,827],{},"其他再保险",[31,829,830],{},"其他直保",[31,832,833],{},"合计",[44,835,836,851,868,885,903,922,941,960],{},[28,837,838,840,842,844,846,849],{},[49,839,79],{},[49,841],{},[49,843],{},[49,845],{},[49,847,848],{},"20",[49,850,848],{},[28,852,853,855,857,859,862,865],{},[49,854,218],{},[49,856],{},[49,858],{},[49,860,861],{},"40",[49,863,864],{},"131",[49,866,867],{},"171",[28,869,870,872,874,876,879,882],{},[49,871,353],{},[49,873],{},[49,875],{},[49,877,878],{},"701",[49,880,881],{},"807",[49,883,884],{},"1,508",[28,886,887,889,892,894,897,900],{},[49,888,488],{},[49,890,891],{},"2,917",[49,893],{},[49,895,896],{},"4,014",[49,898,899],{},"455",[49,901,902],{},"7,386",[28,904,905,907,910,913,916,919],{},[49,906,502],{},[49,908,909],{},"3,125",[49,911,912],{},"14,909",[49,914,915],{},"4,305",[49,917,918],{},"415",[49,920,921],{},"22,754",[28,923,924,926,929,932,935,938],{},[49,925,516],{},[49,927,928],{},"3,444",[49,930,931],{},"15,166",[49,933,934],{},"6,285",[49,936,937],{},"403",[49,939,940],{},"25,298",[28,942,943,945,948,951,954,957],{},[49,944,530],{},[49,946,947],{},"3,943",[49,949,950],{},"15,525",[49,952,953],{},"7,805",[49,955,956],{},"598",[49,958,959],{},"27,871",[28,961,962,964,967,970,973,976],{},[49,963,544],{},[49,965,966],{},"4,251",[49,968,969],{},"19,310",[49,971,972],{},"11,262",[49,974,975],{},"685",[49,977,978],{},"35,508",[14,980,981],{},"去年我曾告诉各位，除非发生重大灾难，我们的浮存金成本应该会从2000年6%的水平下降。当时我心里想的是自然灾害，没想到我们遭遇的是9月11日的人为浩劫——这一事件给保险业造成了有史以来最大的损失。因此，我们的浮存金成本飙升至惊人的12.8%。这是我们自1984年以来最糟糕的记录，而且在很大程度上——后面我会详细解释——这是我们自己造成的。",[14,983,984,985,988,989,992],{},"如果没有发生重大灾难，我再一次预期明年我们的浮存金成本将大幅降低。我们确实迫切需要降低成本，",[616,986,987],{},"所有","保险公司都一样。几年前，比如说4%的浮存金成本还可以忍受，因为当时政府债券的收益率是它的两倍，而股票的预期回报还要更高。如今，丰厚的回报已无处可寻（至少",[616,990,991],{},"我们","找不到），短期资金的收益率不到2%。在这种条件下，我们旗下的每一项保险业务——除了一个例外——都必须实现承保盈利才称得上是好业务。这个例外就是我们的追溯再保险业务（去年年报中已详细说明），虽然目前每年给我们带来约4.25亿美元的承保损失，但其经济效益仍然相当可观。",[18,994,995],{"id":995},"保险承保原则",[14,997,998],{},"用浮存金成本来衡量，很少有财产意外险公司能够算得上是令人满意的企业。有趣的是——与许多其他行业不同——规模和品牌都不是决定保险公司盈利能力的关键。事实上，许多最大、最知名的保险公司经常只能交出平庸的成绩。在这个行业里，最要紧的是承保纪律。真正的赢家是那些始终坚守以下三条关键原则的公司：",[1000,1001,1002,1006,1009],"ol",{},[1003,1004,1005],"li",{},"他们只接受自己能够正确评估的风险（坚守在能力圈之内），并且在评估了所有相关因素——包括极端损失情形——之后，确认这些风险具有盈利预期。这些保险公司从不以市场份额为目标，当竞争对手以愚蠢的价格或条款抢夺业务时，他们乐得让出。",[1003,1007,1008],{},"他们严格限制承接的业务，以确保不会因为单一事件或相关事件而遭受损失聚集，从而威胁到公司的偿付能力。他们不遗余力地搜寻那些看似无关的风险之间可能存在的关联。",[1003,1010,1011],{},"他们回避涉及道德风险的业务：无论费率多么诱人，试图跟不诚信的人签好合同都是行不通的。虽然大多数投保人和客户都是正直守信的，但跟少数例外打交道的代价通常很高，有时高得离谱。",[14,1013,1014],{},"9月11日的事件清楚表明，通用再保险在执行第一条和第二条原则方面存在严重的缺陷。在定价以及评估风险聚集程度时，我们不是忽视了就是轻视了大规模恐怖袭击造成损失的可能性。那是一个至关重要的承保因素，而我们竟然把它忽略了。",[14,1016,1017],{},"例如，在为财产险定价时，我们只参考过去的经验，只考虑了飓风、火灾、爆炸和地震等因素可能带来的成本。但保险史上最大的财产理赔损失（加上相关的营业中断索赔之后），竟然跟这些因素统统无关。简言之，整个行业的所有从业者都犯了一个根本性的承保错误：只关注历史经验而忽视了实际暴露的风险，结果在承担巨大的恐怖主义风险的同时，却没有为此收取一分钱的保费。",[14,1019,1020],{},"当然，在大多数险种的承保中，经验是极其有用的出发点。例如，承保加州地震险的保险公司必须了解，在过去一个世纪中，该州有多少次地震达到了里氏6.0级或以上。这些信息不能告诉你明年发生大地震的确切概率，也不能告诉你可能发生在哪里。但这些统计数据是有价值的，尤其是当你在承接覆盖全州的大型保单时——就像国民保险近年来所做的那样。",[14,1022,1023],{},"然而在某些时候，用过去经验来指导定价不仅毫无用处，反而相当危险。比如，在牛市末期，董事及高管责任险（D&O险）发生重大损失的概率相对较低。当股价上涨时，很难找到起诉的对象，可疑的会计手法和管理层的勾当也往往不会引起注意。在那个时点上，高限额D&O险的历史经验数据看起来漂亮极了。",[14,1025,1026,1027,1030,1031,1033,1034,1037],{},"但恰恰就在那个时候，",[616,1028,1029],{},"风险暴露","可能正在急剧膨胀——通过荒唐的公开募股、盈余操纵、连环信式的股票炒作，以及五花八门的丑恶行径。当股价暴跌时，这些罪恶便会浮出水面，给投资者造成动辄数千亿美元的损失。陪审团在决定这些损失该由小投资者还是大保险公司来承担时，其裁决往往与牛市时期截然不同。而且只要出现一个天价判决，后续案件的和解成本就会像蘑菇一样飞速膨胀。因此，如果基于",[616,1032,1029],{},"来定价，D&O”超额”保险（即保险公司或再保险公司在一个很高的起赔额之上支付损失）的正确费率，很可能是依据",[616,1035,1036],{},"历史经验","所定保费的五倍甚至更多。",[14,1039,1040],{},"保险公司总是会发现，忽视新的风险暴露代价极为高昂。而对恐怖活动而言，忽视的后果可能是整个行业的覆灭。没有人知道今年在某个大都会发生核爆炸的概率有多大（甚至可能不止一次——一个有能力制造一枚核弹的恐怖组织恐怕不会就此罢手）。同样没有人能够确定，在今年或其他任何一年，致命的生化武器被同时投放（比如通过通风系统）到多栋办公楼和工厂的概率有多大。这样的袭击将产生天文数字的工人赔偿索赔。",[14,1042,1043,1044,1047],{},"以下是我们",[616,1045,1046],{},"确实","知道的：",[1000,1049,1050,1053,1056,1059],{},[1003,1051,1052],{},"发生这类令人震惊的灾难的概率，虽然目前可能非常低，但绝非为零。",[1003,1054,1055],{},"随着信息和材料越来越容易被那些仇视我们的人获取，这种概率正在以不规则且无法衡量的方式增加。恐惧感可能会随时间消退，但危险不会——反恐战争永远不可能赢。这个国家能做到的最好结果，不过是一连串的僵持。面对九头蛇般的敌人，永远不可能将死对方。",[1003,1057,1058],{},"到目前为止，保险公司和再保险公司一直在毫无自觉地承担着我上面描述的这些不可估量的风险所带来的财务后果。",[1003,1060,1061],{},"在”接近最坏情况”的假设下——损失有可能达到1万亿美元——除非保险业能以某种方式大幅限制其承担的恐怖主义风险，否则整个行业将被摧毁。只有美国政府才有资源来承受如此沉重的打击。如果政府不愿主动担责，普通民众就只能自己承担风险，寄望于灾难发生后政府出面收拾残局。",[14,1063,1064,1065,1068],{},"或许有人会问，为什么我没有在9月11日",[616,1066,1067],{},"之前","就认识到上述事实？遗憾的是，我确实想到了——但我没有把想法转化为行动。我违反了诺亚法则：光预测下雨没有用，关键是要造方舟。结果我让伯克希尔——尤其是通用再保险——在一个危险的风险水平上运营。我很遗憾地说，许多我们没有收到相应保费的风险仍然留在我们账上，不过它们正在逐日减少。",[14,1070,1071,1072,1075],{},"关于伯克希尔，有一点需要说明：多年以来，我们一直愿意",[616,1073,1074],{},"有意识地","承担比任何其他保险公司都更大的风险。目前依然如此。只要保费合理，我们完全愿意在单一事件中承受20亿到25亿美元的损失（就像9月11日那样，只不过那次我们并没有收到合理的保费）。",[14,1077,1078],{},"事实上，我们愿意承担巨额损失的意愿使我们拥有重大的竞争优势。伯克希尔拥有庞大的流动资产、丰厚的非保险业务收益、有利的税务结构，以及一批有见识的、愿意接受收益波动的股东群体。这种独特的组合使我们能够承担远超我们最大竞争对手胃口的风险。从长远来看，承保这些巨型风险应该是有利可图的，尽管它们偶尔会带来糟糕透顶的年份。",[14,1080,1081],{},"我们目前的底线是：我们会承保一些与恐怖袭击相关的损失，包括少数非关联的、限额极高的保单。但我们绝不会让伯克希尔暴露于超出我们承受能力的损失之下。不管竞争状况如何，我们都会控制住整体的风险敞口。",[18,1083,1085],{"id":1084},"_2001年保险业务运营","2001年保险业务运营",[14,1087,1088],{},"多年以来，我们的保险业务提供了源源不断的低成本资金，为伯克希尔的增长提供了大部分动力。查理和我相信这一趋势还将继续。但我们在2001年栽了一个大跟头，主要原因是通用再保险的承保亏损。",[14,1090,1091],{},"过去我曾向各位保证通用再保险一直在有纪律地承保——结果被证明是错的。虽然管理层的初衷是好的，但公司还是违反了我在上一节列出的全部三条承保原则，并为此付出了沉重的代价。一个明显的原因是损失准备金提列不当——下一节还会详谈——因此严重低估了所售产品的成本。不了解自己的成本在任何行业都会惹出大问题。在长尾再保险中——多年的浑然不觉会助长和延续严重的定价不足——不了解真实成本简直就是一颗定时炸弹。",[14,1093,1094],{},"此外，通用再保险在争取和挽留业务方面过于激进。虽然所有人都打算谨慎承保，但让有才干、干劲十足的专业人士抑制住战胜竞争对手的冲动，确实不容易。然而，如果把”胜利”等同于市场份额而非利润，那麻烦就要来了。“不”——必须成为每一位保险承保人员字典里最重要的字。",[14,1096,1097,1098,1101],{},"虽然听起来可能过于乐观，但我向各位保证，通用再保险（及其子公司科隆再保险 (Cologne Re)）的承保纪律正在以适当的紧迫感加以恢复。乔·布兰登 (Joe Brandon) 已于9月被任命为通用再保险的CEO，他和新任总裁塔德·蒙特罗斯 (Tad Montross) 都致力于实现承保盈利。去年秋天，查理和我读了杰克·韦尔奇 (Jack Welch) 那本精彩绝伦的书《杰克：发自内心》(",[616,1099,1100],{},"Jack, Straight from the Gut",")（快去买一本！）。讨论之后，我们一致认为Joe具有杰克提到的许多特质：聪明、精力充沛、亲力亲为，对自己和组织都有很高的要求。",[14,1103,1104],{},"当通用再保险还是一家独立公司时，它就经常表现出色，如今它还拥有了伯克希尔带来的巨大优势。有了这一额外优势，加上承保纪律的恢复，通用再保险理应成为伯克希尔的一项重大资产。我预期Joe和Tad一定能做到。",[712,1106],{},[14,1108,1109,1110,1113],{},"在国民保险公司 (National Indemnity) 的再保险业务方面，阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 继续为伯克希尔创造巨大的价值。仅靠18位同事的协助，阿吉特管理着全球最大的再保险业务之一（以资产规模衡量），而若以承担的单笔风险规模来衡量，则是全球",[616,1111,1112],{},"第一","。",[14,1115,1116],{},"自1986年阿吉特加入伯克希尔以来，他承接的每一份保单我几乎都了如指掌，而我从未见过他哪怕一次违背我们三条承保原则中的任何一条。当然，他超凡的纪律性并不能消除损失；但它确实能够避免愚蠢的损失。这才是关键：就像投资一样，保险公司要取得优异的长期业绩，靠的主要不是做出几个天才般的决策，而是如何持续不断地避免做出愚蠢的决策。",[14,1118,1119],{},"9月11日以来，阿吉特特别忙碌。我们承接并全部自留在公司账上的保单包括：(1) 为一家南美洲炼油厂提供5.78亿美元的财产险保障，在损失超过10亿美元后生效；(2) 为数家大型国际航空公司提供10亿美元不可撤销的恐怖袭击第三方责任险；(3) 为一座北海大型石油平台提供5亿英镑的恐怖袭击和蓄意破坏财产险，起赔额为被保险人自留或向其他保险公司分保的6亿英镑之上；(4) 为芝加哥西尔斯大厦 (Sears Tower) 提供包括恐怖袭击在内的重大损失险，起赔额为5亿美元。我们还承保了许多其他巨型风险，例如世界杯足球赛和2002年冬季奥运会。但在所有情况下，我们都竭力避免承接那些损失可能严重聚集的成组保单。例如，我们不会为同一个大都会的大量办公楼和住宅大厦承保，除非核爆炸及其引发的火灾损失能够排除在外。",[14,1121,1122],{},"说到承接巨额保单的速度，没有人能跟阿吉特比。9月11日之后，他的快速响应能力——本来就很重要——更成为了一项主要的竞争优势。我们无可匹敌的财务实力同样如此。一些再保险同业——尤其是那些习惯将大部分业务再转分给更下一层的”转分保人”的公司——目前状况不佳，可能很难再承受第二次巨灾。当转分保形成一条链条时，任何一个薄弱环节都可能给所有参与者带来麻烦。因此，保险公司在评估其再保险安排的可靠性时，必须对链条上的每一个参与者进行压力测试，并且要考虑在非常不利的经济环境下发生巨灾损失的情景。毕竟，只有退潮的时候，才能知道谁一直在裸泳。在伯克希尔，我们自留风险，不依赖任何人。不管世界上发生什么问题，我们的支票永远不会跳票。",[14,1124,1125],{},"阿吉特的业务量会起起落落——但他的承保原则绝不动摇。他对伯克希尔的价值怎么说都不过分。",[712,1127],{},[14,1129,1130],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO)——我们规模最大的直保业务——在2001年取得了重大进展，这要归功于CEO托尼·奈斯利 (Tony Nicely) 和他的同事们。说简单点，Tony就是老板心中的完美经理人。",[14,1132,1133],{},"盖可保险去年保费收入增长了6.6%，浮存金增加了3.08亿美元，并实现了2.21亿美元的承保盈利。这意味着去年我们保管着42.5亿美元并不属于伯克希尔但可以用于投资的浮存金，同时还因此得到了2.21亿美元的报酬。",[14,1135,1136],{},"2001年盖可保险唯一令人失望的——而且是相当重要的——就是保户数量未能增加。我们的优先级客户（占总数的81%）增长了1.6%，但标准型和非标准型保单分别下降了10.1%。总体而言，有效保单数量减少了0.8%。",[14,1138,1139],{},"最近几个月新业务有所好转。我们的电话咨询成交率正在攀升，网络业务继续稳步增长。因此，我们预计2002年的保单数量至少会有适度增长。Tony跟我都渴望投入比去年2.19亿美元更多的营销预算，但目前我们还看不到怎样才能花得更有效。与此同时，我们的运营成本依然很低，远低于主要竞争对手；我们的价格颇具吸引力；我们的浮存金零成本且持续增长。",[712,1141],{},[14,1143,1144],{},"我们其他直保子公司去年一如既往地交出了出色的成绩。由罗德·埃尔德雷德 (Rod Eldred)、约翰·凯泽 (John Kizer)、汤姆·纳尼 (Tom Nerney)、迈克尔·斯特恩斯 (Michael Stearns)、唐·陶尔 (Don Towle) 和唐·伍斯特 (Don Wurster) 带领的各家保险公司，合计贡献了5.79亿美元的保费收入，较2000年增长了40%。浮存金增加14.5%至6.85亿美元，并录得3000万美元的承保盈利。总体而言，这些公司堪称全美最优秀的保险运营之一，2002年的前景非常光明。",[18,1146,1148],{"id":1147},"损失调整与保险会计","“损失调整”与保险会计",[14,1150,1151,1152,1155],{},"糟糕的术语是良好思维的敌人。当公司或投资专业人士使用”EBITDA”（息税折旧摊销前利润）和”备考”(pro forma) 这类术语时，他们就是想让你不假思索地接受那些存在严重缺陷的概念。（在高尔夫球场上，按”",[616,1153,1154],{},"备考","”口径计算，我的成绩经常低于标准杆：我有一项明确的计划要”重组”我的推杆，因此我只计算球到达果岭之前的挥杆次数。）",[14,1157,1158,1159,1161],{},"在保险业报告中，“损失调整”(loss development) 是一个被广泛使用的术语——而且具有严重的误导性。首先给个定义：保险公司的损失准备金不是为未雨绸缪而储备的资金，而是一项负债科目。如果计算得当，这项负债应该反映保险公司为报告截止日之前发生但尚未支付的",[616,1160,987],{},"损失（包括相关费用）所需支付的金额。在计算准备金时，保险公司已经接到了许多未来必须支付的损失通知，但还有一些损失尚未报告。这些被称为IBNR——已发生但未报告的损失。事实上，在某些情况下（比如涉及产品责任或员工贪污），被保险人自己甚至还不知道损失已经发生了。",[14,1163,1164],{},"显然，保险公司很难准确估算所有这些已报告和未报告事件的最终成本。但以合理的准确性做到这一点至关重要。否则，保险公司的管理层将无法了解实际的损失成本，也就无从判断这些成本与收取的保费是否匹配。盖可保险在1970年代初之所以陷入巨大的困境，就是因为连续多年严重低估了准备金，因而以为其产品（保险保障）的成本远低于实际水平。结果公司在浑然不觉中一路高歌猛进，以过低的价格出售保单，卖得越多，亏得越多。",[14,1166,1167],{},"当事后发现先前报告日期的损失准备金低估了当时的实际负债时，保险公司就会搬出”损失调整”这个说法。在发现差额的年份，这些亏空会冲减当年报告的利润，因为以前年度的”追赶”成本必须计入当年损益。这正是2001年通用再保险身上发生的事情：令人瞠目结舌的8亿美元损失成本实际上发生在以前年度却未被记录，在去年被迟迟确认并计入当年损益。我可以向各位保证，这个错误是无心之过。然而多年来，准备金提列不足使我们误以为成本远低于真实水平，这又导致了严重不足的定价。此外，虚高的利润数字还导致我们支付了不该支付的大额激励薪酬，以及过早缴纳了所得税。",[14,1169,1170],{},"我建议废除”损失调整”这个说法，以及它同样丑陋的孪生兄弟”准备金加强”(reserve strengthening)。（你能想象一家保险公司在发现准备金提列过多、对其进行削减时，会把这个过程称为”准备金弱化”吗？）“损失调整”暗示投资者，当年发生了某种自然的、不可控的事件；而”准备金加强”则暗示，已经够充足的准备金得到了进一步巩固。然而真相是：管理层在估算中犯了错误，导致此前报告的收益失实。损失并没有”发展”——它们一直都在那里。真正发展变化的是管理层对损失的认识（或者，在故意造假的情况下，是管理层终于愿意坦白的勇气）。",[14,1172,1173],{},"对于这种现象，一个更直截了当的说法应该是”我们当初没有及时发现的损失成本”（或者干脆就叫”哎呀”）。需要指出的是，准备金提列不足是整个财产意外险行业普遍存在的严重问题。在伯克希尔，我们在1984年和1986年就向各位坦白过自己的低估问题。不过总体而言，我们的损失准备金算是相当保守稳健的。",[14,1175,1176,1177,1180],{},"严重的准备金不足在那些苦苦挣扎求生的公司中尤其常见。实际上，保险会计就是一场自己给自己打分的考试——保险公司提交数字给审计事务所，通常不会遭到质疑。（不过",[616,1178,1179],{},"审计师","倒是会拿到管理层的一封担保函，万一日后这些数字看起来很荒唐，可以用来撇清自己的责任。）一家面临财务困难的公司——那种如果如实面对就可能经营不下去的困难——很少会在这种自我打分中对自己下狠手。毕竟，谁会愿意亲手签署自己的死刑判决书呢？",[14,1182,1183],{},"即使在公司态度最为诚恳的情况下，要准确提列损失准备金也绝非易事。我以前讲过一个出门在外的人的故事：他的姐姐打电话告诉他父亲去世了。他回复说自己实在无法回家参加葬礼，但愿意承担全部丧葬费用。回国后，他收到了殡仪馆寄来的4500美元账单，二话不说就付了。一个月后，又收到一张10美元的追加账单，也付了。又过了一个月，还是10美元。第三张10美元账单来了之后，他不解地打电话问姐姐到底是怎么回事。姐姐说：“哦，我忘了告诉你——爸爸的西装是租的。”",[14,1185,1186,1187,1189],{},"在保险公司过往的经营中，埋藏着许多这样的”租来的西装”。有时候，它们所暗示的问题会潜伏数十年——就像石棉责任赔偿那样——然后突然像病毒般爆发出来。尽管这项估算工作困难重重，但管理层有责任充分考虑",[616,1188,987],{},"可能性。保守稳健是必须的。当理赔经理走进CEO的办公室说”您猜刚才发生了什么事”时，如果老板是个老手，他可不会指望听到什么好消息。在保险世界里，意外事件对收益的影响从来都不是对称的。",[14,1191,1192,1193,1196,1197,1200],{},"正因为这种不对称性，有些人建议将所有财产意外险的损失准备金进行",[616,1194,1195],{},"折现","——理由是这些准备金要在未来才支付，因此其现值低于账面负债。这种想法是愚蠢的。如果损失准备金",[616,1198,1199],{},"能够","被精确地确定，折现或许还可以接受。但事实是做不到——无数的力量在不断推动准备金走向不足，仅举两个长期存在的问题：保单条款被司法解释不断扩大，以及医疗通胀。折现只会加剧这个本已严重的问题，还会为那些倾向于弄虚作假的公司提供一件新工具。",[14,1202,1203],{},"我想说，告诉一位在盈利线上苦苦挣扎的保险公司CEO可以通过折现来降低准备金，其效果就好比一位父亲告诉自己16岁的儿子可以自由享受正常的性生活一样——双方都不需要这种鼓励。",[18,1205,1206],{"id":1206},"报告收益来源",[14,1208,1209],{},"下表显示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在这张表中，购买法会计调整（主要涉及”商誉“）并未分配到具体的业务板块，而是汇总后单独列示。这种做法让各位可以看到，假如我们没有收购这些企业，它们各自的收益将是怎样的。近年来，我们的商誉摊销”费用”数额很大。今后，通用会计准则 (GAAP) 将不再要求商誉摊销。这一变化将增加我们的报告收益（虽然不会改变真实的经济收益），并简化报告的这一部分。",[22,1211,1212,1228],{},[25,1213,1214],{},[28,1215,1216,1218,1221,1223,1226],{},[31,1217],{},[31,1219,1220],{},"税前收益",[31,1222,1220],{},[31,1224,1225],{},"税后收益（伯克希尔应占）",[31,1227,1225],{},[44,1229,1230,1243,1256,1269,1286,1303,1320,1337,1354,1371,1388,1405,1421,1438,1454,1470,1487,1503,1518,1532,1549,1566],{},[28,1231,1232,1235,1237,1239,1241],{},[49,1233,1234],{},"（百万美元）",[49,1236,544],{},[49,1238,530],{},[49,1240,544],{},[49,1242,530],{},[28,1244,1245,1248,1250,1252,1254],{},[49,1246,1247],{},"经营收益：",[49,1249],{},[49,1251],{},[49,1253],{},[49,1255],{},[28,1257,1258,1261,1263,1265,1267],{},[49,1259,1260],{},"保险集团：",[49,1262],{},[49,1264],{},[49,1266],{},[49,1268],{},[28,1270,1271,1274,1277,1280,1283],{},[49,1272,1273],{},"承保——再保险",[49,1275,1276],{},"$(4,318)",[49,1278,1279],{},"$(1,416)",[49,1281,1282],{},"$(2,824)",[49,1284,1285],{},"$(911)",[28,1287,1288,1291,1294,1297,1300],{},[49,1289,1290],{},"承保——盖可保险",[49,1292,1293],{},"221",[49,1295,1296],{},"(224)",[49,1298,1299],{},"144",[49,1301,1302],{},"(146)",[28,1304,1305,1308,1311,1314,1317],{},[49,1306,1307],{},"承保——其他直保",[49,1309,1310],{},"30",[49,1312,1313],{},"25",[49,1315,1316],{},"18",[49,1318,1319],{},"16",[28,1321,1322,1325,1328,1331,1334],{},[49,1323,1324],{},"保险投资净收益",[49,1326,1327],{},"2,824",[49,1329,1330],{},"2,773",[49,1332,1333],{},"1,968",[49,1335,1336],{},"1,946",[28,1338,1339,1342,1345,1348,1351],{},[49,1340,1341],{},"建材产品 (1)",[49,1343,1344],{},"461",[49,1346,1347],{},"34",[49,1349,1350],{},"287",[49,1352,1353],{},"21",[28,1355,1356,1359,1362,1365,1368],{},[49,1357,1358],{},"金融业务",[49,1360,1361],{},"519",[49,1363,1364],{},"530",[49,1366,1367],{},"336",[49,1369,1370],{},"343",[28,1372,1373,1376,1379,1382,1385],{},[49,1374,1375],{},"航空服务",[49,1377,1378],{},"186",[49,1380,1381],{},"213",[49,1383,1384],{},"105",[49,1386,1387],{},"126",[28,1389,1390,1393,1396,1399,1402],{},[49,1391,1392],{},"中美能源（持股76%）",[49,1394,1395],{},"600",[49,1397,1398],{},"197",[49,1400,1401],{},"230",[49,1403,1404],{},"109",[28,1406,1407,1410,1413,1415,1418],{},[49,1408,1409],{},"零售业务",[49,1411,1412],{},"175",[49,1414,1412],{},[49,1416,1417],{},"101",[49,1419,1420],{},"104",[28,1422,1423,1426,1429,1432,1435],{},[49,1424,1425],{},"斯科特费泽（不含金融业务）",[49,1427,1428],{},"129",[49,1430,1431],{},"122",[49,1433,1434],{},"83",[49,1436,1437],{},"80",[28,1439,1440,1443,1446,1449,1452],{},[49,1441,1442],{},"萧氏工业 (2)",[49,1444,1445],{},"292",[49,1447,1448],{},"–",[49,1450,1451],{},"156",[49,1453,1448],{},[28,1455,1456,1459,1462,1464,1467],{},[49,1457,1458],{},"其他业务",[49,1460,1461],{},"179",[49,1463,1293],{},[49,1465,1466],{},"103",[49,1468,1469],{},"133",[28,1471,1472,1475,1478,1481,1484],{},[49,1473,1474],{},"购买法会计调整",[49,1476,1477],{},"(726)",[49,1479,1480],{},"(881)",[49,1482,1483],{},"(699)",[49,1485,1486],{},"(843)",[28,1488,1489,1492,1495,1497,1500],{},[49,1490,1491],{},"公司利息费用",[49,1493,1494],{},"(92)",[49,1496,1494],{},[49,1498,1499],{},"(60)",[49,1501,1502],{},"(61)",[28,1504,1505,1508,1511,1513,1516],{},[49,1506,1507],{},"股东指定捐赠",[49,1509,1510],{},"(17)",[49,1512,1510],{},[49,1514,1515],{},"(11)",[49,1517,1515],{},[28,1519,1520,1523,1525,1528,1530],{},[49,1521,1522],{},"其他",[49,1524,1313],{},[49,1526,1527],{},"39",[49,1529,1319],{},[49,1531,1310],{},[28,1533,1534,1537,1540,1543,1546],{},[49,1535,1536],{},"经营收益合计",[49,1538,1539],{},"488",[49,1541,1542],{},"1,699",[49,1544,1545],{},"(47)",[49,1547,1548],{},"936",[28,1550,1551,1554,1557,1560,1563],{},[49,1552,1553],{},"投资资本利得",[49,1555,1556],{},"1,320",[49,1558,1559],{},"3,955",[49,1561,1562],{},"842",[49,1564,1565],{},"2,392",[28,1567,1568,1571,1574,1577,1580],{},[49,1569,1570],{},"所有实体收益合计",[49,1572,1573],{},"$1,808",[49,1575,1576],{},"$5,654",[49,1578,1579],{},"$795",[49,1581,1582],{},"$3,328",[14,1584,1585],{},[616,1586,1587],{},"(1) 包括Acme Brick（自2000年8月1日起）、Benjamin Moore（自2000年12月18日起）、佳斯迈威 Johns Manville（自2001年2月27日起）和迈迪科 MiTek（自2001年7月31日起）。",[14,1589,1590],{},[616,1591,1592],{},"(2) 萧氏工业自2001年1月8日收购之日起算。",[14,1594,1595],{},"以下是2001年非保险业务的一些亮点（和暗点）：",[1597,1598,1599],"ul",{},[1003,1600,1601],{},"我们的制鞋业务（包含在”其他业务”中）税前亏损4620万美元，布朗鞋业 (H.H. Brown) 和贾斯丁靴业 (Justin) 的利润被德克斯特鞋业 (Dexter) 的亏损完全吞没。",[14,1603,1604],{},"关于德克斯特鞋业，我做过的三个决定让各位损失惨重：(1) 当初决定买下它；(2) 用股票来支付；(3) 在明显需要变革时犹豫不决。我真想把这些错误甩给查理（或者随便什么人都行），但这些错确确实实是我犯的。德克斯特在我们买下之前——以及买下后的头几年——确实经营得不错，尽管面临着残酷的海外低成本竞争。我当时判断德克斯特有能力应对这个问题，而我大错特错了。",[14,1606,1607],{},"我们现在已经将德克斯特的运营——其规模仍然相当可观——交由布朗鞋业的弗兰克·鲁尼 (Frank Rooney) 和吉姆·伊斯勒 (Jim Issler) 来管理。这两位在伯克希尔的表现一直出类拔萃，在困扰制鞋业的剧烈变革中展现出了高超的应对能力。2002年前半段，德克斯特仍将受到去年签下的不赚钱的销售合约的拖累。此后，我们相信制鞋业务有望恢复合理的盈利水平。",[1597,1609,1610],{},[1003,1611,1612],{},"中美能源 (MidAmerican Energy)——我们以完全稀释口径持有76%——2001年表现不错。鉴于该公司此前一直承担着大额商誉摊销费用，而依照新的会计准则这项”成本”将不复存在，预计2002年的报告收益还将大幅增长。",[14,1614,1615],{},"去年中美能源置换了在英国的部分资产，增加了拥有210万用户的约克郡电力 (Yorkshire Electric)。我们目前在英国服务360万用户，是英国第二大电力公司。此外，我们在爱荷华州拥有同等重要的业务，在加利福尼亚和菲律宾也拥有大型发电设施。",[14,1617,1618],{},"说出来你可能会大吃一惊——中美能源旗下还拥有全美第二大的住宅房地产经纪业务。我们在多个大城市处于市场领导地位，主要集中在中西部，最近还收购了亚特兰大和南加州的重要公司。去年，在当地知名的各种品牌名下经营，我们总共处理了约10.6万笔房产交易，成交总额近200亿美元。罗恩·佩尔蒂埃 (Ron Peltier) 为我们打造了这项业务，他很可能在2002年及以后几年继续进行更多收购。",[1597,1620,1621],{},[1003,1622,1623],{},"考虑到经济衰退的大环境，我们的零售业务在2001年表现相当不错。珠宝业务方面，同店销售额下降7.6%，税前利润率为8.9%，低于2000年的10.7%。投入资本回报率仍然很高。",[14,1625,1626],{},"家具零售业务的同店销售额基本持平，税前利润率同样保持在9.1%。这里的投入资本回报率同样出色。",[14,1628,1629],{},"在珠宝和家具业务上，我们仍在持续扩张。特别值得一提的是，内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart) 正在兴建一座45万平方英尺的超大旗舰店，预计2003年秋天投入运营，届时将服务大堪萨斯城地区。尽管有Bill Child的成功反例在前，我们还是会让这家店周日照常营业。",[1597,1631,1632],{},[1003,1633,1634],{},"我们在2000年底启动的几桩大型收购——萧氏工业 (Shaw)、佳斯迈威 (Johns Manville) 和百明摩油漆 (Benjamin Moore)——在加入伯克希尔的第一年都表现出色。查理和我在收购时就知道，有鲍勃·肖 (Bob Shaw)、杰瑞·亨利 (Jerry Henry) 和伊万·杜比 (Yvan Dupuy) 分别掌舵，我们完全可以放心——现在我们对他们的工作更加钦佩了。这些企业合计贡献了约6.59亿美元的税前收益。",[14,1636,1637],{},"年终后不久，我们用4740股伯克希尔A股（或等值B股）换购了萧氏工业12.7%的少数股权，至此我们持有该公司100%的股权。萧氏工业是我们最大的非保险业务，在伯克希尔的未来将扮演重要角色。",[1597,1639,1640],{},[1003,1641,1642],{},"2001年航空服务业务的全部利润——甚至还多一点——都来自我们的飞行员培训子公司飞安公司 (FlightSafety)。虽然去年投入了2.58亿美元购置模拟器和其他固定资产导致投入资本回报率略有下降，但收益仍增长了2.5%。我84岁的老朋友阿尔·尤尔斯基 (Al Ueltschi)，依然以他1951年用1万美元创立公司时同样的热情和拼劲经营着飞安公司。如果我在年度股东会上让Al跟一群60多岁的人坐在一起，你根本分不出他来。",[14,1644,1645],{},"9月11日之后，商业航空公司的训练需求下降了，至今仍然低迷。不过，我们的主要业务——商务航空和通用航空的训练——接近正常水平，并有望继续增长。2002年，我们预计斥资1.62亿美元购置27台模拟器，远超过我们9500万美元的年度折旧费用。那些认为EBITDA等同于真实收益的人，欢迎来替我们买单。",[14,1647,1648],{},"我们的利捷航空 (NetJets) 飞机共享所有权项目去年售出了创纪录数量的飞机，管理费和飞行小时费带来的服务收入也增长了21.9%。尽管如此，该业务仍出现小幅亏损，而2000年是小幅盈利。我们在美国赚了一点钱，但这些收益被欧洲的亏损抵消有余。按客户飞机的价值衡量，利捷航空占据了行业约一半的份额。我们相信其他参与者合计亏损相当可观。",[14,1650,1651],{},"维持最高水平的安全、安保和服务一直代价不菲，9月11日之后坚守这些标准的成本更是雪上加霜。不管成本多高，我们都将继续在这三个方面保持行业领导地位。对向客户只提供最优服务的不妥协坚持，已经深深刻入了该公司CEO兼飞机共享所有权发明者里奇·桑图利 (Rich Santulli) 的DNA里。无论是为了公司还是为了我的家人，我都对他在这些方面的执着深感欣慰：我相信巴菲特家族的飞机共享使用时数——我们每年飞行超过800小时——比其他任何家族都多。如果你想知道的话，我们使用的飞机和机组与利捷航空所有其他客户完全一样。",[14,1653,1654],{},"9月11日之后，利捷航空的新订单曾短暂爆发，但此后销售节奏已恢复正常。年内每位客户的平均使用量有所下降，这可能与经济衰退有关。",[14,1656,1657],{},"作为飞机共享所有权业务遥遥领先的领导者，我们和客户都从中获得了显著的运营优势。我们在美国拥有超过300架飞机持续运营，因此可以在很短的时间内出现在客户需要的任何地方。我们机队的广泛分布也使我们的”调机”成本低于那些机队规模较小的运营商。",[14,1659,1660],{},"这些规模优势以及我们拥有的其他优势，使利捷航空相对竞争对手具有显著的经济优势。不过在未来几年可能面临的竞争环境下，我们的优势充其量只能带来微薄的利润。",[1597,1662,1663],{},[1003,1664,1665],{},"我们的金融及金融产品业务目前包括XTRA、通用再保险证券部门（正处于退出模式，这一过程还将持续相当长的时间）以及其他几项规模较小的业务。然而，该板块的大部分资产和负债来自我亲自管理的几项固定收益策略，涉及的是高流动性的AAA级证券。这项业务只有在市场出现某些特定条件时才有意义，过去一直带来不错的回报，展望未来一两年仍有合理的前景。",[18,1667,1668],{"id":1668},"股票投资",[14,1670,1671],{},"下面列示我们的普通股投资。截至2001年底市值超过5亿美元的个股逐一列出。",[22,1673,1674,1690],{},[25,1675,1676],{},[28,1677,1678,1681,1684,1687],{},[31,1679,1680],{},"股份数量",[31,1682,1683],{},"公司名称",[31,1685,1686],{},"成本*（截至2001年12月31日，百万美元）",[31,1688,1689],{},"市值（截至2001年12月31日，百万美元）",[44,1691,1692,1706,1720,1733,1747,1761,1775,1789,1801],{},[28,1693,1694,1697,1700,1703],{},[49,1695,1696],{},"151,610,700",[49,1698,1699],{},"美国运通 American Express",[49,1701,1702],{},"$1,470",[49,1704,1705],{},"$5,410",[28,1707,1708,1711,1714,1717],{},[49,1709,1710],{},"200,000,000",[49,1712,1713],{},"可口可乐 Coca-Cola",[49,1715,1716],{},"1,299",[49,1718,1719],{},"9,430",[28,1721,1722,1725,1728,1730],{},[49,1723,1724],{},"96,000,000",[49,1726,1727],{},"吉列 Gillette",[49,1729,1395],{},[49,1731,1732],{},"3,206",[28,1734,1735,1738,1741,1744],{},[49,1736,1737],{},"15,999,200",[49,1739,1740],{},"H&R Block",[49,1742,1743],{},"255",[49,1745,1746],{},"715",[28,1748,1749,1752,1755,1758],{},[49,1750,1751],{},"24,000,000",[49,1753,1754],{},"穆迪 Moody’s",[49,1756,1757],{},"499",[49,1759,1760],{},"957",[28,1762,1763,1766,1769,1772],{},[49,1764,1765],{},"1,727,765",[49,1767,1768],{},"华盛顿邮报 Washington Post",[49,1770,1771],{},"11",[49,1773,1774],{},"916",[28,1776,1777,1780,1783,1786],{},[49,1778,1779],{},"53,265,080",[49,1781,1782],{},"富国银行 Wells Fargo",[49,1784,1785],{},"306",[49,1787,1788],{},"2,315",[28,1790,1791,1793,1795,1798],{},[49,1792],{},[49,1794,1522],{},[49,1796,1797],{},"4,103",[49,1799,1800],{},"5,726",[28,1802,1803,1805,1808,1811],{},[49,1804],{},[49,1806,1807],{},"普通股合计",[49,1809,1810],{},"$8,543",[49,1812,1813],{},"$28,675",[14,1815,1816],{},"我们在2001年几乎没有变动投资组合。总体而言，我们的主要持股在过去几年表现不佳，有些是因为自身的经营成果令人失望。查理和我仍然喜欢所有这些公司的核心业务。但我们不认为伯克希尔的股票投资组合作为一个整体被低估了。",[14,1818,1819,1820,1823,1824,1831],{},"我们对这些证券的保留态度，与我们对未来十年左右股票市场前景的明显冷淡看法相一致。我在7月份Allen公司年会上的演讲中表达了我对股票回报率的看法（那是两年前一次类似演讲的后续），修改后的版本刊登在12月10日的《财富》(",[616,1821,1822],{},"Fortune",") 杂志上。我在此附上了那篇文章的副本。各位也可以在我们的网站 ",[1825,1826,1830],"a",{"href":1827,"rel":1828},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.berkshirehathaway.com",[1829],"nofollow","www.berkshirehathaway.com"," 上查看《财富》杂志版的1999年演讲。",[14,1833,1834],{},"查理和我相信美国企业长期而言将表现出色，但我们认为目前的股价预示着投资者只能获得中等回报。股市的表现在很长一段时间内超越了企业本身的进步，而这种现象终将结束。一个仅仅与企业发展步调一致的市场，可能会让许多投资者大失所望，尤其是那些相对来说还是新手的投资者。",[14,1836,1837],{},"给那些喜欢奇妙巧合的人说一个：大泡沫在2000年3月10日正式破裂（虽然我们在好几个月之后才意识到这个事实）。那一天，纳斯达克指数（最近约为1731点）创下了5132点的历史新高。同一天，伯克希尔的股价以40,800美元收盘，创下自1997年中期以来的最低价。",[712,1839],{},[14,1841,1842,1843,1846],{},"2001年我们在”垃圾”债券市场比平时活跃了一些。但必须强调，这类证券不适合普通投资者，因为它们太多时候名副其实。我们",[616,1844,1845],{},"从来","没有买过新发行的垃圾债券——而那恰恰是大多数投资者被推销去买的品种。此外，一旦发生损失，往往是灾难性的：许多债券最终只能收回发行价的一小部分，有的甚至变成一文不值。",[14,1848,1849],{},"尽管风险如此之大，我们还是会不时找到极少数——非常少——引起我们兴趣的垃圾证券。而且到目前为止，我们50年来在困境债务方面的经验证明是有回报的。在1984年年报中，我们描述了当初华盛顿公共电力系统 (Washington Public Power System) 信誉扫地时我们购买其债券的经过。多年来，我们还涉足了其他看似灾难性的情况，比如克莱斯勒金融 (Chrysler Financial)、德士古 (Texaco) 和RJR纳贝斯克 (RJR Nabisco)——最终它们都东山再起了。不过，如果我们继续在垃圾债券领域保持活跃，你可以预期我们迟早会出现亏损。",[14,1851,1852],{},"偶尔，购买困境债务会引领我们走向更大的交易。在鲜果布衣破产的早期，我们以大约面值50%的价格买入了该公司的公开债券和银行债务。这是一个不同寻常的破产案——优先级债务的利息支付从未中断——这意味着我们获得了约15%的当期收益率。我们的持仓增长到鲜果布衣优先级债务的10%，最终我们有望收回面值的约70%。通过这笔投资，我们间接略微降低了收购整家公司的成本。",[14,1854,1855],{},"2000年底，我们开始买入陷入困境的金融公司FINOVA集团 (FINOVA Group) 的债务，这同样引领我们做了一笔大交易。当时FINOVA约有110亿美元的债务流通在外，我们以约面值的三分之二买入了其中13%。我们预计该公司将走向破产，但相信其资产清算后对债权人的偿付将远超我们的成本。2001年初违约迫在眉睫时，我们联手亮迪亚国民公司 (Leucadia National Corporation)，向FINOVA提交了一份预打包的破产重组方案。",[14,1857,1858],{},"经修改后的方案（这里我简单说明）规定：债权人将获得面值70%的现金偿付（加上全额利息），对于其余30%未被现金满足的债权，则获得一张新发行的7.5%利率的票据。为了筹集FINOVA的70%偿付资金，亮迪亚和伯克希尔合资成立了一个实体——取了个好听的名字叫Berkadia——通过舰队波士顿银行 (FleetBoston) 借入了56亿美元，然后转借给FINOVA，同时取得了FINOVA资产的优先受偿权。伯克希尔为Berkadia借款的90%提供担保，并对亮迪亚承担主要责任的10%提供次级担保。（我说过这是简单说明了吧？）",[14,1860,1861],{},"Berkadia支付的借款利率与从FINOVA收取的利率之间有约两个百分点的利差，其中90%归伯克希尔，10%归亮迪亚。在我写这封信时，双方的贷款余额各已降至39亿美元。",[14,1863,1864],{},"作为2001年8月10日获批的破产方案的一部分，伯克希尔还同意以面值70%的价格购买FINOVA新发行的32.5亿美元7.5%债券中至多5亿美元的本金。（其中，因为我们之前持有13%的原始债务，已经收到了4.268亿美元的本金。）我们的报价原定在2001年9月26日前有效，但附有多项撤回条件，其中一条是在报价期间纽约证券交易所关闭即可撤回。9月11日那一周这正好发生了，我们随即终止了报价。",[14,1866,1867],{},"FINOVA的许多贷款涉及飞机资产，9月11日事件后这些资产的价值大幅缩水。该公司持有的其他应收款也因那天的攻击所造成的经济后果而受到威胁。因此，FINOVA的前景已不如我们当初向破产法庭提案时那么乐观。尽管如此，我们仍认为这笔交易整体上对伯克希尔是有利的。亮迪亚负责FINOVA的日常运营，我们一直对其核心管理层精明的商业判断力和管理才能印象深刻。",[712,1869],{},[14,1871,1872],{},"又到了似曾相识的时刻：早在1965年，当我管理的投资合伙公司控制了伯克希尔时，公司的主要往来银行是波士顿第一国民银行 (First National Bank of Boston) 和一家纽约的大银行。在那之前，我跟这两家银行都没有业务往来。",[14,1874,1875],{},"快进到1969年，当时我想让伯克希尔收购伊利诺伊州洛克福德的国民银行及信托公司 (Illinois National Bank and Trust)。我们需要1000万美元资金，于是我联系了这两家银行。纽约那家毫无回音。但波士顿银行立刻派了两位代表飞到奥马哈。他们告诉我，资金没问题，细节以后再谈。",[14,1877,1878],{},"在接下来的三十年里，我们几乎没有向银行借过钱。（在伯克希尔，“负债”不过是个普通名词而已。）然后到了去年2月，当我们在筹划FINOVA交易的融资方案时，我再次打电话给波士顿——第一国民银行此时已经变身为舰队波士顿银行 (FleetBoston)。该银行总裁查德·吉福德 (Chad Gifford) 的回应跟1969年比尔·布朗 (Bill Brown) 和艾拉·斯蒂潘尼安 (Ira Stepanian) 如出一辙——“钱没问题，细节以后再说。”",[14,1880,1881],{},"事情就是这样办成的。舰队波士顿银行组织了一笔60亿美元的银团贷款（最终我们有4亿美元没有用到），迅速被全球17家银行超额认购。所——以——如果你也需要60亿美元的话，给Chad打个电话就行——前提当然是你的信用评级得是AAA。",[712,1883],{},[14,1885,1886],{},"关于投资还有一点要说明：媒体经常报道说”巴菲特正在买入”这支或那支股票，消息来源是伯克希尔提交的监管文件。这些报道有时是对的，但有时伯克希尔申报的交易实际上出自路易·辛普森 (Lou Simpson) 之手——他独立管理着盖可保险旗下一个20亿美元的投资组合，完全不受我的干预。通常情况下，Lou不会告诉我他在买什么或卖什么，我也只是在每月结束后几天收到盖可保险投资组合月报时才了解他的动态。当然，Lou的投资理念与我非常相似，但我们最终买入的标的往往大不相同。这主要是因为他管理的资金规模较小，因此可以投资一些小型公司。哦对了，我们之间还有一个小小的差别：近年来Lou的投资业绩比我好太多了。",[18,1888,1889],{"id":1889},"慈善捐赠",[14,1891,1892],{},"伯克希尔在慈善捐赠方面奉行一套非常独特的政策——但这是查理和我认为最理性、对股东也最公平的做法。",[14,1894,1895,1896,1899],{},"首先，我们让旗下各子公司自主做出慈善捐赠决定，只是要求那些曾经以独立公司身份运营这些企业的所有者\u002F经理人，向其",[616,1897,1898],{},"个人","偏好的慈善机构捐赠时使用私人资金，而非公司资金。当经理人使用公司资金捐赠时，我们信任他们会以能为其管理的业务带来相称的有形或无形收益的方式进行。去年，伯克希尔各子公司的捐赠总额为1920万美元。",[14,1901,1902],{},"在母公司层面，除了股东指定的捐赠外，我们不做任何捐赠。我们不会配捐董事或员工的个人捐赠，也不会向巴菲特家族或芒格家族偏好的慈善机构捐款。不过，我们收购之前有些子公司已经设有员工配捐计划，我们完全支持他们继续执行：干扰成功的企业文化不是我们的风格。",[14,1904,1905,1906,1909],{},"为了落实",[616,1907,1908],{},"股东","的捐赠意愿，每年我们都会通知A股的注册持有人（A股代表86.6%的股本）一个每股金额，他们可以指定我们向最多三家慈善机构捐赠。股东指定机构，伯克希尔开支票。只要符合美国国税局 (IRS) 相关条款的组织，股东都可以指定。去年，在5700位股东的指示下，伯克希尔向3550家慈善机构捐出了1670万美元。自从我们启动这项计划以来，股东们的捐赠总额已达1.81亿美元。",[14,1911,1912],{},"大多数上市公司都回避向宗教机构捐赠。然而这些恰恰是我们股东最偏爱的慈善对象——去年有437家教堂和犹太教堂被指定为受捐对象。此外，还有790所学校。包括查理和我在内的一些大股东，则指定各自的个人基金会作为捐赠对象，这样这些基金会就可以将资金进一步广泛分配。",[14,1914,1915,1916,1918],{},"我每周都会收到几封信批评伯克希尔向计划生育协会 (Planned Parenthood) 捐款。这些信通常是受到某个希望抵制伯克希尔产品的组织的推动。这些信措辞一律彬彬有礼且出于真心，但写信者忽略了一个关键点：做出慈善捐赠决定的不是伯克希尔公司，而是伯克希尔的",[616,1917,1908],{},"——而这些股东的观点之多元，超乎你的想象。例如，在堕胎问题上，他们支持和反对的比例大致与美国民众的比例相当。不管他们指定的是计划生育协会还是生命之光 (Metro Right to Life)，只要该慈善机构具有501(c)(3)资质，我们都会照办。这就好比我们支付了一笔股利，由股东自行捐出。只是我们这种形式在税务上更为高效。",[14,1920,1921],{},"在采购商品或聘用人员时，我们从不考虑交易对象的宗教信仰、性别、种族或性取向。这样做不仅是错误的，而且是愚蠢的。我们需要我们能找到的一切人才，而我们已经认识到，能干且值得信赖的经理人、员工和供应商来自各行各业、各色人群。",[712,1923],{},[14,1925,1926],{},[616,1927,1928],{},"如欲参加我们未来的慈善捐赠计划，您必须持有登记在实际所有者名下（而非经纪人、银行或托管机构代持名下）的A类股票。2002年8月31日前未按此方式登记的股份将无资格参与2002年的计划。收到我们寄出的捐赠表格后，请尽快填写寄回。逾期收到的指定恕不受理。",[18,1930,1931],{"id":1931},"年度股东大会",[14,1933,1934],{},"今年的年度股东大会将于5月4日周六举行，地点仍在市政礼堂 (Civic Auditorium)。大门早上7点开放，电影8点半播放，正式会议9点半开始。中午有短暂的用餐休息时间。（可在礼堂的小卖部购买三明治。）除此休息之外，查理和我将回答大家的提问直到下午3点半。尽管放马过来。",[14,1936,1937],{},"至少在明年之前，位于市中心的市政礼堂仍是我们唯一可用的场地。因此我们只能选在周六或周日开会，以避免工作日必定出现的交通和停车噩梦。不过，奥马哈即将拥有一个配备充足停车设施的新会议中心。届时如果我们搬到那里，我会征询股东意见，看大家是否愿意恢复2000年之前的周一开会惯例。投票将按股东人数而非持股比例计算。（不过，选CEO可不会采用这种制度。）",[14,1939,1940],{},"随本报告附上的委托书资料中附有说明，告诉各位如何获取参加股东会及其他活动所需的入场凭证。至于机票、酒店和租车预订，我们再次委托美国运通 (American Express)（电话800-799-6634）为您提供特别帮助。他们每年都为我们做了出色的工作，在此表示感谢。",[14,1942,1943],{},"我们将照例安排大巴从主要酒店接送大家前往会场。散会后，大巴将返回酒店，并前往内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)、波仙珠宝 (Borsheim’s) 和机场。即便如此，您可能还是会觉得有一辆车比较方便。",[14,1945,1946,1947,1950],{},"今年伯克希尔又新增了这么多公司，我就不一一列举我们将在会场",[616,1948,1949],{},"销售","的所有产品了。但请做好准备，从砖块到糖果统统带回家。当然还有内衣。假设鲜果布衣的收购在5月4日之前完成，我们将销售鲜果布衣的最新款式，保证让你成为街坊邻居中的时尚领袖。买一辈子的量吧。",[14,1952,1953],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO) 将在会场设立展位，派出全国各地的多位顶级顾问，随时为您提供汽车保险报价。在大多数情况下，盖可保险可以给您一个特别的股东折扣（通常为8%）。在我们运营的49个司法辖区中，有41个允许这项特别优惠。带上您现有保险的详细信息，来看看我们能不能帮您省钱。",[14,1955,1956],{},"周六在奥马哈机场，我们将一如既往地展示利捷航空 (NetJets) 的各款飞机供您参观。只要在市政礼堂向工作人员询问即可安排参观。如果您在周末采购了足够多的东西，很可能需要自己的飞机才能把它们运回家。而且，如果您购买了一架飞机的部分所有权，我们说不定还会赠送三条内裤或平角裤。",[14,1958,1959],{},"内布拉斯加家具店坐落在72街、道奇街与太平洋街之间占地75英亩的园区内，我们将再次推出”伯克希尔周”特惠价——也就是向股东提供通常只给员工的折扣。这项特惠活动始于五年前，期间的销售额从1997年的530万美元增长到了2001年的1150万美元。",[14,1961,1962],{},"要获得折扣，您需要在5月2日周四至5月6日周一之间购物，并出示股东会入场凭证。特惠期间的优惠价格甚至适用于几家通常对折扣有严格铁律的顶级品牌——他们本着股东周的精神为您破了例。我们感谢他们的配合。内布拉斯加家具店工作日营业时间为上午10点至晚上9点，周六周日为上午10点至下午6点。",[14,1964,1965],{},"波仙珠宝——全美最大的珠宝店（仅次于蒂芙尼 (Tiffany) 曼哈顿旗舰店）——将举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是5月3日周五下午6点至晚上10点的鸡尾酒会。第二场也是主活动，定在5月5日周日上午9点至下午5点。从周四到周一期间均可享受股东特惠价，所以如果您想避开周五晚上和周日的大批人群，可以选其他时间光顾，记得表明股东身份。周六我们营业到下午6点。波仙珠宝的毛利率比其主要竞争对手低了整整二十个百分点，所以买得越多省得越多——至少我妻子和女儿是这么告诉我的。来吧，让我们给您的钱包做个”减肥手术”。",[14,1967,1968],{},"周日下午，在波仙珠宝外面的大厅里，我们将邀请几位世界顶级桥牌高手与股东们同乐。预计鲍勃·哈曼和佩特拉·哈曼夫妇 (Bob and Petra Hamman) 以及莎伦·奥斯伯格 (Sharon Osberg) 都将主持牌桌。两度美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫 (Patrick Wolff) 也将在大厅里蒙眼挑战所有来者！去年帕特里克最多同时下六盘棋——蒙着眼睛——今年他将挑战七盘。最后，仅有的两位两度赢得西洋双陆棋世界冠军之一的比尔·罗伯蒂 (Bill Robertie) 也将在现场测试各位的双陆棋功力。周日请到大厅来参加门萨奥林匹克大赛。",[14,1970,1971,1972,1975],{},"我最喜欢的牛排馆戈拉特 (Gorat’s) 将在5月5日周日再次专为伯克希尔股东开门，从下午4点营业至晚上10点。请记住，周日来戈拉特必须提前预订。请在4月1日（",[616,1973,1974],{},"不要更早","）拨打402-551-3733预约。如果周日订满了，可以在您在城里的其他晚上试试。点一份三分熟的丁骨牛排配双份土豆饼，彰显一下你的品味吧。",[14,1977,1978],{},"照例的棒球赛将于周六晚上7点在罗森布拉特体育馆 (Rosenblatt Stadium) 举行。今年奥马哈皇家队 (Omaha Royals) 将对阵俄克拉荷马红鹰队 (Oklahoma RedHawks)。去年，为了效仿贝比·鲁斯 (Babe Ruth) 的转型传奇，我放弃了投球转而尝试击球。奥马哈出身的投手鲍勃·吉布森 (Bob Gibson) 站上了投手丘，我吓坏了——怕他那著名的贴身刷脸球。结果他投了一个好球带里的快球，我用马克·麦奎尔 (Mark McGwire) 式的挥击——连上了！打出一记朝向内野的强劲滚地球，可它莫名其妙地在内场就死掉了。我没有跑垒：以我这把年纪，就连打牌都会气喘吁吁。",[14,1980,1981],{},"我不确定今年球场上会发生什么，但来现场感受一下惊喜吧。委托书资料中包含了如何获取球赛门票的说明。预订股东会门票的人将收到一本小册子，里面有各种信息帮助您尽情享受奥马哈之行。城里将热闹非凡。所以一定要来参加我们的伍德斯托克周末，在市政礼堂加入我们的资本主义庆典吧。",[712,1983],{},[14,1985,1986],{},"最后，我要感谢在总部——全部面积仅5,246.5平方英尺——这个了不起的、效率惊人的团队，是他们让我的工作变得如此轻松。伯克希尔去年增加了约4万名员工，总人数达到11万人。总部这边新增了一名员工，现在总共14.8人。（我一直试图说服乔·艾伦·里克 (JoEllen Rieck) 把每周上班时间从四天改成五天，但我想她还是更喜欢当那个全国闻名的0.8。）",[14,1988,1989],{},"顺利处理好我们目前这个规模和范围带来的一系列事务——加上一些几乎是伯克希尔独有的额外活动，比如股东盛会和指定捐赠计划——需要一群非常特别的人。我们无疑拥有这样的人。",[14,1991,1992],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,1994,1995],{},"董事会主席",[14,1997,1998],{},"2002年2月28日",{"title":2000,"searchDepth":2001,"depth":2001,"links":2002},"",2,[2003,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014],{"id":20,"depth":2004,"text":20},3,{"id":605,"depth":2004,"text":606},{"id":689,"depth":2004,"text":690},{"id":795,"depth":2004,"text":795},{"id":995,"depth":2004,"text":995},{"id":1084,"depth":2004,"text":1085},{"id":1147,"depth":2004,"text":1148},{"id":1206,"depth":2004,"text":1206},{"id":1668,"depth":2004,"text":1668},{"id":1889,"depth":2004,"text":1889},{"id":1931,"depth":2004,"text":1931},"致股东信",null,"2001年巴菲特致股东信，分析911事件冲击、保险业损失、投资收益及美国经济展望","md",{},true,72,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":2017},"2001 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","kjC-rcIKthFTHYMnn_UhoiSr8lQccNctPdobGSyzSeg","buffett",[2030,2035,2039,2043,2046,2049,2052,2055,2058,2061,2065,2068,2071,2075,2078,2081,2085,2088,2091,2095,2098,2101,2105,2108,2111,2115,2118,2121,2125,2128,2131,2135,2138,2141,2145,2148,2151,2155,2158,2161,2165,2168,2171,2175,2178,2181,2185,2188,2191,2195,2198,2201,2205,2208,2211,2215,2218,2221,2225,2228,2231,2235,2238,2241,2245,2248,2251,2255,2258,2261,2265,2268,2271,2275,2278,2281,2285,2288,2291,2295,2298,2301,2305,2308,2311,2315,2318,2321,2325,2328,2331,2335,2338,2341,2345,2348,2351,2355,2358,2361,2365,2368,2372,2375,2379,2382,2386,2389,2393,2396,2400,2403,2407,2410,2414,2417,2421,2424,2428,2431,2435,2438,2442,2445,2449,2452,2456,2459,2463,2466,2470,2473,2477,2480,2484,2487,2491,2494,2498,2501,2505,2508,2512,2515,2519,2522,2526,2529,2533,2536,2540,2543,2547,2550,2554,2557,2561,2564,2568,2571,2575,2578,2582,2585,2589,2592,2596,2599,2603,2606,2610,2613,2617,2620,2624,2627,2628,2631,2635,2638,2642,2645,2649,2652,2656,2659,2663,2666,2670,2673,2677,2680,2684,2687,2691,2694,2698,2701,2705,2708,2712,2715,2719,2722,2726,2729,2733,2736,2740,2743,2747,2750,2754,2757,2761,2764,2768,2771,2775,2778,2782,2785,2789,2792,2796,2799,2803,2806,2810,2813,2817,2820,2824,2827,2831,2835,2839,2843,2847,2851,2855,2859,2863,2867,2871,2875,2879,2883,2887,2891,2895,2899,2903,2907,2911,2915,2919,2923,2927,2931,2935,2939,2943,2947,2951,2955,2959,2963,2967,2971,2975,2979,2983,2987,2991,2995,2999,3003,3007,3011,3015,3019,3023,3027],{"title":2031,"slug":2032,"category":2033,"order":2034},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":2036,"slug":2037,"category":2038,"order":2034},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":2040,"slug":2041,"category":2042,"order":2034},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":2044,"slug":2045,"category":2033,"order":2001},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2047,"slug":2048,"category":2038,"order":2001},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":2050,"slug":2051,"category":2042,"order":2001},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2053,"slug":2054,"category":2033,"order":2004},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2056,"slug":2057,"category":2038,"order":2004},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":2059,"slug":2060,"category":2042,"order":2004},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2062,"slug":2063,"category":2033,"order":2064},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":2066,"slug":2067,"category":2038,"order":2064},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":2069,"slug":2070,"category":2042,"order":2064},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2072,"slug":2073,"category":2033,"order":2074},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":2076,"slug":2077,"category":2038,"order":2074},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":2079,"slug":2080,"category":2042,"order":2074},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2082,"slug":2083,"category":2033,"order":2084},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":2086,"slug":2087,"category":2038,"order":2084},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":2089,"slug":2090,"category":2042,"order":2084},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2092,"slug":2093,"category":2033,"order":2094},"1961年中 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巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2429,"slug":2430,"category":2038,"order":2427},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2432,"slug":2433,"category":2015,"order":2434},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2436,"slug":2437,"category":2038,"order":2434},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2439,"slug":2440,"category":2015,"order":2441},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2443,"slug":2444,"category":2038,"order":2441},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2446,"slug":2447,"category":2015,"order":2448},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2450,"slug":2451,"category":2038,"order":2448},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2453,"slug":2454,"category":2015,"order":2455},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2457,"slug":2458,"category":2038,"order":2455},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2460,"slug":2461,"category":2015,"order":2462},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2464,"slug":2465,"category":2038,"order":2462},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2467,"slug":2468,"category":2015,"order":2469},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2471,"slug":2472,"category":2038,"order":2469},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2474,"slug":2475,"category":2015,"order":2476},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2478,"slug":2479,"category":2038,"order":2476},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2481,"slug":2482,"category":2015,"order":2483},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2485,"slug":2486,"category":2038,"order":2483},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2488,"slug":2489,"category":2015,"order":2490},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2492,"slug":2493,"category":2038,"order":2490},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2495,"slug":2496,"category":2015,"order":2497},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2499,"slug":2500,"category":2038,"order":2497},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2502,"slug":2503,"category":2015,"order":2504},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2506,"slug":2507,"category":2038,"order":2504},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2509,"slug":2510,"category":2015,"order":2511},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2513,"slug":2514,"category":2038,"order":2511},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2516,"slug":2517,"category":2015,"order":2518},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2520,"slug":2521,"category":2038,"order":2518},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2523,"slug":2524,"category":2015,"order":2525},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2527,"slug":2528,"category":2038,"order":2525},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2530,"slug":2531,"category":2015,"order":2532},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2534,"slug":2535,"category":2038,"order":2532},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2537,"slug":2538,"category":2015,"order":2539},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2541,"slug":2542,"category":2038,"order":2539},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2544,"slug":2545,"category":2015,"order":2546},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2548,"slug":2549,"category":2038,"order":2546},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2551,"slug":2552,"category":2015,"order":2553},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2555,"slug":2556,"category":2038,"order":2553},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2558,"slug":2559,"category":2015,"order":2560},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2562,"slug":2563,"category":2038,"order":2560},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2565,"slug":2566,"category":2015,"order":2567},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2569,"slug":2570,"category":2038,"order":2567},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2572,"slug":2573,"category":2015,"order":2574},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2576,"slug":2577,"category":2038,"order":2574},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2579,"slug":2580,"category":2015,"order":2581},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2583,"slug":2584,"category":2038,"order":2581},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2586,"slug":2587,"category":2015,"order":2588},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2590,"slug":2591,"category":2038,"order":2588},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2593,"slug":2594,"category":2015,"order":2595},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2597,"slug":2598,"category":2038,"order":2595},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2600,"slug":2601,"category":2015,"order":2602},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2604,"slug":2605,"category":2038,"order":2602},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2607,"slug":2608,"category":2015,"order":2609},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2611,"slug":2612,"category":2038,"order":2609},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2614,"slug":2615,"category":2015,"order":2616},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2618,"slug":2619,"category":2038,"order":2616},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2621,"slug":2622,"category":2015,"order":2623},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2625,"slug":2626,"category":2038,"order":2623},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":5,"slug":2025,"category":2015,"order":2021},{"title":2629,"slug":2630,"category":2038,"order":2021},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2632,"slug":2633,"category":2015,"order":2634},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2636,"slug":2637,"category":2038,"order":2634},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2639,"slug":2640,"category":2015,"order":2641},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2643,"slug":2644,"category":2038,"order":2641},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2646,"slug":2647,"category":2015,"order":2648},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2650,"slug":2651,"category":2038,"order":2648},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2653,"slug":2654,"category":2015,"order":2655},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2657,"slug":2658,"category":2038,"order":2655},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2660,"slug":2661,"category":2015,"order":2662},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2664,"slug":2665,"category":2038,"order":2662},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2667,"slug":2668,"category":2015,"order":2669},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2671,"slug":2672,"category":2038,"order":2669},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2674,"slug":2675,"category":2015,"order":2676},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2678,"slug":2679,"category":2038,"order":2676},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2681,"slug":2682,"category":2015,"order":2683},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2685,"slug":2686,"category":2038,"order":2683},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2688,"slug":2689,"category":2015,"order":2690},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2692,"slug":2693,"category":2038,"order":2690},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2695,"slug":2696,"category":2015,"order":2697},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2699,"slug":2700,"category":2038,"order":2697},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2702,"slug":2703,"category":2015,"order":2704},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2706,"slug":2707,"category":2038,"order":2704},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2709,"slug":2710,"category":2015,"order":2711},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2713,"slug":2714,"category":2038,"order":2711},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2716,"slug":2717,"category":2015,"order":2718},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2720,"slug":2721,"category":2038,"order":2718},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2723,"slug":2724,"category":2015,"order":2725},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2727,"slug":2728,"category":2038,"order":2725},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2730,"slug":2731,"category":2015,"order":2732},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2734,"slug":2735,"category":2038,"order":2732},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2737,"slug":2738,"category":2015,"order":2739},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2741,"slug":2742,"category":2038,"order":2739},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2744,"slug":2745,"category":2015,"order":2746},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2748,"slug":2749,"category":2038,"order":2746},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2751,"slug":2752,"category":2015,"order":2753},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2755,"slug":2756,"category":2038,"order":2753},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":2758,"slug":2759,"category":2015,"order":2760},"2018 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