[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3705},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":2169,"library-sidebar-dao":3171,"library-sidebar-models":3473},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":2155,"date":2156,"description":2157,"extension":2158,"meta":2159,"navigation":2160,"order":2161,"path":2162,"seo":2163,"seoDescription":2157,"seoTitle":2164,"slug":2165,"stem":2166,"__hash__":2167,"_collection":2168},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2000 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":2139},"minimark",[9,13,17,21,567,570,592,595,600,603,606,609,612,615,618,621,624,632,635,638,641,648,651,654,657,661,664,667,675,678,681,684,689,692,695,700,703,706,709,714,717,720,723,730,735,742,745,748,753,756,761,764,767,770,772,775,778,781,784,787,790,793,796,799,802,805,808,811,960,963,970,973,976,983,986,989,992,995,998,1001,1004,1007,1010,1013,1016,1020,1023,1119,1125,1132,1135,1138,1141,1144,1147,1150,1153,1156,1159,1162,1165,1172,1175,1182,1189,1192,1195,1311,1314,1317,1320,1327,1333,1336,1339,1346,1349,1352,1363,1366,1369,1372,1375,1378,1393,1396,1403,1406,1409,1412,1753,1756,1759,1762,1765,1768,1771,1774,1777,1780,1783,1786,1788,1791,1794,1797,1800,1934,1945,1948,1951,1954,1957,1960,1963,1966,1969,1972,1975,1978,1980,1983,1990,2001,2004,2007,2010,2013,2016,2019,2022,2024,2027,2029,2032,2035,2038,2040,2047,2050,2053,2056,2059,2062,2067,2070,2073,2076,2079,2086,2089,2092,2095,2098,2101,2104,2107,2114,2121,2124,2127,2130,2133,2136],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2000-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},"注：以下业绩对比表刊印在年报中董事长信的对面页上，信中有所提及。",[18,19,20],"h3",{"id":20},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[22,23,24,43],"table",{},[25,26,27],"thead",{},[28,29,30,34,37,40],"tr",{},[31,32,33],"th",{},"年份",[31,35,36],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比 (1)",[31,38,39],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比 (2)",[31,41,42],{},"相对收益 (1)-(2)",[44,45,46,61,75,89,102,116,130,144,158,172,186,200,214,227,241,254,268,282,296,309,323,337,349,362,375,389,403,417,429,443,457,470,484,498,512,526,540,553],"tbody",{},[28,47,48,52,55,58],{},[49,50,51],"td",{},"1965",[49,53,54],{},"23.8",[49,56,57],{},"10.0",[49,59,60],{},"13.8",[28,62,63,66,69,72],{},[49,64,65],{},"1966",[49,67,68],{},"20.3",[49,70,71],{},"(11.7)",[49,73,74],{},"32.0",[28,76,77,80,83,86],{},[49,78,79],{},"1967",[49,81,82],{},"11.0",[49,84,85],{},"30.9",[49,87,88],{},"(19.9)",[28,90,91,94,97,99],{},[49,92,93],{},"1968",[49,95,96],{},"19.0",[49,98,82],{},[49,100,101],{},"8.0",[28,103,104,107,110,113],{},[49,105,106],{},"1969",[49,108,109],{},"16.2",[49,111,112],{},"(8.4)",[49,114,115],{},"24.6",[28,117,118,121,124,127],{},[49,119,120],{},"1970",[49,122,123],{},"12.0",[49,125,126],{},"3.9",[49,128,129],{},"8.1",[28,131,132,135,138,141],{},[49,133,134],{},"1971",[49,136,137],{},"16.4",[49,139,140],{},"14.6",[49,142,143],{},"1.8",[28,145,146,149,152,155],{},[49,147,148],{},"1972",[49,150,151],{},"21.7",[49,153,154],{},"18.9",[49,156,157],{},"2.8",[28,159,160,163,166,169],{},[49,161,162],{},"1973",[49,164,165],{},"4.7",[49,167,168],{},"(14.8)",[49,170,171],{},"19.5",[28,173,174,177,180,183],{},[49,175,176],{},"1974",[49,178,179],{},"5.5",[49,181,182],{},"(26.4)",[49,184,185],{},"31.9",[28,187,188,191,194,197],{},[49,189,190],{},"1975",[49,192,193],{},"21.9",[49,195,196],{},"37.2",[49,198,199],{},"(15.3)",[28,201,202,205,208,211],{},[49,203,204],{},"1976",[49,206,207],{},"59.3",[49,209,210],{},"23.6",[49,212,213],{},"35.7",[28,215,216,219,221,224],{},[49,217,218],{},"1977",[49,220,185],{},[49,222,223],{},"(7.4)",[49,225,226],{},"39.3",[28,228,229,232,235,238],{},[49,230,231],{},"1978",[49,233,234],{},"24.0",[49,236,237],{},"6.4",[49,239,240],{},"17.6",[28,242,243,246,248,251],{},[49,244,245],{},"1979",[49,247,213],{},[49,249,250],{},"18.2",[49,252,253],{},"17.5",[28,255,256,259,262,265],{},[49,257,258],{},"1980",[49,260,261],{},"19.3",[49,263,264],{},"32.3",[49,266,267],{},"(13.0)",[28,269,270,273,276,279],{},[49,271,272],{},"1981",[49,274,275],{},"31.4",[49,277,278],{},"(5.0)",[49,280,281],{},"36.4",[28,283,284,287,290,293],{},[49,285,286],{},"1982",[49,288,289],{},"40.0",[49,291,292],{},"21.4",[49,294,295],{},"18.6",[28,297,298,301,303,306],{},[49,299,300],{},"1983",[49,302,264],{},[49,304,305],{},"22.4",[49,307,308],{},"9.9",[28,310,311,314,317,320],{},[49,312,313],{},"1984",[49,315,316],{},"13.6",[49,318,319],{},"6.1",[49,321,322],{},"7.5",[28,324,325,328,331,334],{},[49,326,327],{},"1985",[49,329,330],{},"48.2",[49,332,333],{},"31.6",[49,335,336],{},"16.6",[28,338,339,342,345,347],{},[49,340,341],{},"1986",[49,343,344],{},"26.1",[49,346,295],{},[49,348,322],{},[28,350,351,354,356,359],{},[49,352,353],{},"1987",[49,355,171],{},[49,357,358],{},"5.1",[49,360,361],{},"14.4",[28,363,364,367,370,372],{},[49,365,366],{},"1988",[49,368,369],{},"20.1",[49,371,336],{},[49,373,374],{},"3.5",[28,376,377,380,383,386],{},[49,378,379],{},"1989",[49,381,382],{},"44.4",[49,384,385],{},"31.7",[49,387,388],{},"12.7",[28,390,391,394,397,400],{},[49,392,393],{},"1990",[49,395,396],{},"7.4",[49,398,399],{},"(3.1)",[49,401,402],{},"10.5",[28,404,405,408,411,414],{},[49,406,407],{},"1991",[49,409,410],{},"39.6",[49,412,413],{},"30.5",[49,415,416],{},"9.1",[28,418,419,422,424,427],{},[49,420,421],{},"1992",[49,423,68],{},[49,425,426],{},"7.6",[49,428,388],{},[28,430,431,434,437,440],{},[49,432,433],{},"1993",[49,435,436],{},"14.3",[49,438,439],{},"10.1",[49,441,442],{},"4.2",[28,444,445,448,451,454],{},[49,446,447],{},"1994",[49,449,450],{},"13.9",[49,452,453],{},"1.3",[49,455,456],{},"12.6",[28,458,459,462,465,468],{},[49,460,461],{},"1995",[49,463,464],{},"43.1",[49,466,467],{},"37.6",[49,469,179],{},[28,471,472,475,478,481],{},[49,473,474],{},"1996",[49,476,477],{},"31.8",[49,479,480],{},"23.0",[49,482,483],{},"8.8",[28,485,486,489,492,495],{},[49,487,488],{},"1997",[49,490,491],{},"34.1",[49,493,494],{},"33.4",[49,496,497],{},".7",[28,499,500,503,506,509],{},[49,501,502],{},"1998",[49,504,505],{},"48.3",[49,507,508],{},"28.6",[49,510,511],{},"19.7",[28,513,514,517,520,523],{},[49,515,516],{},"1999",[49,518,519],{},".5",[49,521,522],{},"21.0",[49,524,525],{},"(20.5)",[28,527,528,531,534,537],{},[49,529,530],{},"2000",[49,532,533],{},"6.5",[49,535,536],{},"(9.1)",[49,538,539],{},"15.6",[28,541,542,545,548,551],{},[49,543,544],{},"1965-2000年均复合增长率",[49,546,547],{},"23.6%",[49,549,550],{},"11.8%",[49,552,550],{},[28,554,555,558,561,564],{},[49,556,557],{},"1964-2000累计总收益",[49,559,560],{},"207,821%",[49,562,563],{},"5,383%",[49,565,566],{},"202,438%",[14,568,569],{},"注：",[571,572,573,577,580],"ul",{},[574,575,576],"li",{},"数据按日历年度计算，以下年份例外：1965年和1966年为截至9月30日的年度；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。",[574,578,579],{},"自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司以市价（而非此前的成本与市价孰低法）对所持权益证券进行估值。本表中1978年及以前的伯克希尔数据已按新准则进行了追溯调整，其余各方面均使用原始报告数据。",[574,581,582,583,587,588,591],{},"标普500指数的数据为",[584,585,586],"strong",{},"税前","数据，而伯克希尔的数据为",[584,589,590],{},"税后","数据。如果一家像伯克希尔这样的公司只是单纯持有标普500指数并计提相应税款，则在标普500指数上涨的年份，其表现会落后于该指数；而在指数下跌的年份则会跑赢。日积月累，税负成本会造成相当大的累计差距。",[593,594],"hr",{},[14,596,597],{},[584,598,599],{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,601,602],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,604,605],{},"2000年，伯克希尔的净资产增加了39.6亿美元，A股和B股的每股账面价值增长了6.5%。自现任管理层接手的36年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元增长到目前的40,442美元，年复合增长率约为23.6%。(*)",[14,607,608],{},"(*): 本报告中所有的每股数据均以伯克希尔A股为基准——这是1996年之前公司唯一发行在外的股份。B股享有A股三十分之一的经济权益。",[14,610,611],{},"总的来说，我们去年的表现还算不错，账面价值的增幅超越了标普500指数的表现。而且，虽然这种判断不可避免带有主观性，但我们相信伯克希尔每股内在价值的增长要适度超过账面价值的增长。（内在价值以及其它关键投资和会计术语的解释，请参阅股东手册第59-66页，其中内在价值的讨论见第64页。）",[14,613,614],{},"此外，我们完成了两项在1999年就开始谈判的重大收购，并新启动了六项收购。合计下来，这些收购花了我们大约80亿美元，其中97%以现金支付，3%以股票支付。这八家企业的合计年销售额约130亿美元，雇用员工5.8万人。即便如此，我们完成这些收购没有举借一分钱的债务，流通在外的股份也只增加了0.3%。更妙的是，我们手头依然有充裕的流动资金，随时准备也渴望进行更大规模的收购。",[14,616,617],{},"后面我会详细介绍这些收购。不过在这里，我先向各位宣布，我们拥抱21世纪的方式是大举进军砖块、地毯、隔热材料和油漆等尖端产业。请各位控制一下激动的心情。",[14,619,620],{},"在不利的一面，盖可保险 (GEICO) 的保户增长在去年下半年趋于停滞。获取新业务的成本越来越高。去年我曾信誓旦旦地说，2000年在盖可保险加大广告投入绝对物超所值，但事实证明我错了。原因我们后面再详细分析。",[14,622,623],{},"另一项持续了好几年的负面因素是，我们觉得自己的股票投资组合只能算是略有吸引力。我们确实持有一些优质企业的股票，但大多数持仓的价格已经充分反映了其价值，未来能带来的回报很可能只是中等水平。面对这个问题的不止我们一家：整体股市的长期前景实在算不上令人兴奋。",[14,625,626,627,631],{},"最后还有一项年年都会发生的坏消息：伯克希尔的副董事长兼我的合伙人查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 和我，比起上次跟各位报告的时候又老了一岁。不过值得欣慰的是，有一个无可辩驳的事实——以",[628,629,630],"em",{},"百分比","来算，你们管理层老化的速度比几乎所有其它大公司都要慢得多。更妙的是，这个差距以后还会越来越大。",[14,633,634],{},"查理和我的目标始终如一：让伯克希尔的每股价值以一个长期来看能适度超过标普500指数涨幅的速度增长。如同前面那张表所示，我们每年哪怕只领先几个百分点的优势，只要能持之以恒，长期累积下来也会产生惊人的差距。为了实现这个目标，我们每年都需要为伯克希尔增添几家好公司，让我们现有的企业继续增值，同时避免流通在外的股数大幅膨胀。后面两条我们有信心做到，但第一条确实需要一些运气。",[14,636,637],{},"在这里要特别感谢两组人，是他们让我的工作年复一年轻松又愉快。首先，我们旗下企业的经理人继续以出色的方式经营着各自的生意，让我可以把时间花在资本配置上，而不必去监管他们。（反正让我去管也管不好。）",[14,639,640],{},"我们的经理人是非常特殊的一群人。在大多数大公司里，真正有才华的部门经理很少能安心于手头的工作。他们通常渴望成为CEO——不管是在现在的公司还是跳槽到别家公司。事实上，如果他们按兵不动，他和同事们反而会觉得这是一种失败。",[14,642,643,644,647],{},"在伯克希尔，我们的全明星经理人恰恰拥有他们",[628,645,646],{},"最想要","的工作——一份他们希望并期望能干一辈子的事业。正因如此，他们可以全身心专注于将自己”拥有”并热爱的事业的长期价值最大化。事业成功了，他们也就成功了。而且他们始终与我们同在：在过去36年里，伯克希尔从没有一位重要子公司的经理人主动离开去投奔别家公司。",[14,649,650],{},"另一组我要深深致谢的是总部的员工们。在八项收购使我们的全球员工总数翻了一番多、达到约11.2万人之后，查理和我去年心软了一回，在总部增加了一名编制。（查理总是不忘提醒我本杰明·富兰克林的名言：“小洞不补，大船沉没。”）现在我们有13.8个人。",[14,652,653],{},"这支小小的队伍创造了奇迹。2000年他们处理了八项收购的大小事宜，应付了繁重的监管和税务申报（光我们的纳税申报表就有4,896页），顺利组织了一场发出25,000张门票的股东年会，并准确无误地给股东指定捐赠的3,660家慈善机构发出了支票。除此之外，这个团队还要处理一家年营业额达400亿美元、拥有超过30万名股东的大公司的全部日常事务。而且说到这些，另外那12.8个人在身边共事的感觉真是太棒了。",[14,655,656],{},"干这份工作我应该倒贴钱才对。",[18,658,660],{"id":659},"_2000年的收购","2000年的收购",[14,662,663],{},"在伯克希尔，我们的收购策略简单至极：接电话就行。可喜的是，电话现在响得更勤了，因为越来越多的企业主和经理人希望把自己的公司加入伯克希尔。我们的收购标准列在第23页，电话号码是402-346-1400。",[14,665,666],{},"接下来让我详细介绍过去14个月里我们收购的企业，先从1999年启动、2000年完成的两项交易说起。（这份清单不包括我们旗下子公司自行进行的一些较小规模的收购，那些通常会被纳入各子公司的运营报告中。）",[571,668,669,672],{},[574,670,671],{},"第一项收购——中美能源 (MidAmerican Energy) 76%的股权——我在去年的报告中已有描述。由于监管机构限制了我们的投票权，在财务报表中我们只能以”单行”合并法列示中美能源的收益和权益。如果改为完全合并，我们2000年的营业收入将比报告数字多出50亿美元，不过净利润不会有变化。",[574,673,674],{},"1999年11月23日，我收到布鲁斯·科特 (Bruce Cort) 的一页传真，上面附了一篇《华盛顿邮报》的文章，报道了科特商业服务公司 (CORT Business Services) 一桩流产的收购案。尽管名字巧合，Bruce Cort跟CORT公司毫无关系。他是一位飞机经纪人，1986年曾卖过一架飞机给伯克希尔，在发这份传真之前，我已经有十年没跟他联系了。",[14,676,677],{},"我对CORT一无所知，但马上打印出了该公司在SEC的申报文件，看了之后很是喜欢。当天我就告诉Bruce我可能有兴趣，请他安排我与CORT的CEO保罗·阿诺德 (Paul Arnold) 见面。Paul和我在11月29日碰面，我当即就知道这笔交易具备了所有该有的要素：一家朴实无华的好公司，一位出色的经理人，以及一个合理的价格（多少受到了先前交易流产的影响）。",[14,679,680],{},"CORT拥有117家展厅，是全美”以租养租”办公家具租赁行业的领导者，主要服务于办公室，也服务于公寓的临时住户。必须指出，这项业务与”先租后买”模式完全不同，后者通常是向收入有限、信用不佳的人出售家用电器和家具。",[14,682,683],{},"我们很快通过持有80%股权的子公司韦斯科金融 (Wesco) 以大约3.86亿美元现金买下了CORT。大家可以在韦斯科1999年和2000年的年报中找到CORT运营的更多细节。查理和我都很享受与Paul共事，CORT的表现看起来会超过我们最初的预期。",[571,685,686],{},[574,687,688],{},"去年初，通用再保险 (General Re) 的罗恩·弗格森 (Ron Ferguson) 帮我联系上了鲍勃·贝里 (Bob Berry)，他的家族经营美国责任保险公司 (U.S. Liability) 已有49年。这家保险公司连同两家姊妹公司，是一家中等规模、声誉卓著的特殊险承保商——用保险业的行话说，叫”超额及剩余险种”。Bob和我联系后，通过电话就谈妥了一半股票、一半现金的交易方案。",[14,690,691],{},"近几年来，汤姆·纳尼 (Tom Nerney) 为Berry家族管理这家公司，取得了难得的高增长与高盈利兼得的出色业绩。Tom在其它方面也是精力充沛的人。他不仅领养了四个孩子（其中两个来自俄罗斯），还有一个大家庭：费城美女队——一支由Tom担任教练的少女篮球队。这支球队去年取得了62胜4负的辉煌战绩，并在AAU全国锦标赛中获得亚军。",[14,693,694],{},"优秀的财产意外险公司本来就不多，而我们拥有的数量远超应得之份。美国责任保险公司的加入，更为我们的收藏锦上添花。",[571,696,697],{},[574,698,699],{},"本布里奇珠宝公司 (Ben Bridge Jeweler) 是另一笔通过电话就敲定的收购，在此之前我跟管理层连面都没见过。埃德·布里奇 (Ed Bridge) 和他的堂兄乔恩·布里奇 (Jon Bridge) 共同经营着这家在美国西海岸拥有65家门店的珠宝零售商。Ed是巴内特·赫兹伯格 (Barnett Helzberg) 的朋友——1995年我们就是从Barnett手里买下了赫兹伯格钻石 (Helzberg Diamonds)。当Barnett得知Bridge家族有意出售公司后，立刻向伯克希尔强烈推荐。Ed随后打电话给我介绍了公司情况，又寄来一些财务数据，我们就此成交——同样是一半现金、一半股票。",[14,701,702],{},"Ed和Jon是第四代传人，这家企业89年前在西雅图创立。公司和家族——包括Jon和Ed的父亲Herb和Bob——都享有非凡的声誉。过去七年来，同店销售额分别增长了9%、11%、13%、10%、12%、21%和7%，这个记录着实惊人。",[14,704,705],{},"对于Bridge家族来说，公司未来能够像过去一样运营至关重要。没有人愿意看到另一家珠宝连锁店进来，用什么协同效应和削减成本的名目把公司搞得四分五裂（虽然这些招数肯定不会奏效，但同样肯定会被强行尝试）。我明确告诉Ed和Jon，还是由他们来掌舵，他们也知道我说话算数：毕竟，你们的董事长要是亲自去经营一家珠宝店或卖珠宝，那铁定是一场灾难（虽然我的家人在买珠宝这件事上早已修炼到了黑带级别）。",[14,707,708],{},"一如他们的优雅作风，Bridges家族将出售所得中的很大一部分分给了数百位协助公司取得成功的同事们。能与这样的家族和公司建立关系，我们深感自豪。",[571,710,711],{},[574,712,713],{},"7月，我们收购了贾斯汀工业公司 (Justin Industries)——西部靴子的龙头制造商，旗下品牌包括Justin、Tony Lama、Nocona和Chippewa——同时也是德州及周边五个州最大的砖块生产商。",[14,715,716],{},"这次收购再次得益于机缘巧合。5月4日，我收到一份来自马克·琼斯 (Mark Jones) 的传真——我完全不认识此人——提议伯克希尔参与一个团体收购一家未具名公司。我回传真给他，说明除极少数例外情况，我们不跟别人一起投资，但如果他把资料发给我们、我们之后完成了收购，我们乐意支付他一笔介绍费。他回复说这家”神秘公司”就是Justin。于是我去了沃斯堡 (Fort Worth)，与该公司董事长约翰·罗奇 (John Roach) 以及一手创立公司的大股东约翰·贾斯汀 (John Justin) 见面。不久后，我们以5.7亿美元现金完成了收购。",[14,718,719],{},"John Justin热爱自己一手创建的Justin公司，却因为严重的健康问题被迫退休（令人悲痛的是，他在次年二月下旬去世了）。John是一位了不起的人——无论作为公民、企业家还是普通人。所幸他培养了两位杰出的经理人：Acme制砖公司的哈罗德·梅尔顿 (Harrold Melton) 和贾斯汀靴业 (Justin Boot) 的兰迪·沃森 (Randy Watson)，两人各自独立经营自己的公司。",[14,721,722],{},"Acme是两家中规模较大的，22座工厂每年生产超过10亿块砖，约占全行业全国总产量的11.7%。砖块生意天然具有区域性，而Acme在其经营区域享有无可争议的领导地位。当德州人被问到能说出哪个砖块品牌时，75%的人回答Acme，排名第二的只有16%。（在我们收购之前，我一个砖块品牌都说不上来。你能吗？）这种品牌认知度不仅归功于Acme的产品质量，更是几十年来公司和John Justin深耕社区服务的结晶。",[14,724,725,726,729],{},"我忍不住要指出，伯克希尔——其高层管理人员的思维长期停留在19世纪——现在竟然是世界上为数不多的真正”鼠标加水泥”企业之一。进入2000年，我们一边有盖可保险在互联网上做着红火的生意，一边又添了Acme制砖。我敢打赌，伯克希尔的这番举动一定让硅谷那帮人",[628,727,728],{},"吓出一身汗","。",[571,731,732],{},[574,733,734],{},"6月，全球最大的地毯制造商萧氏工业 (Shaw Industries) 的CEO鲍勃·萧 (Bob Shaw)，带着他的合伙人朱利安·索尔 (Julian Saul) 以及另一家正在考虑与Shaw合并的公司的CEO一起来见我。然而那个潜在的合并对象因过去的经营活动面临巨额石棉赔偿责任，交易能否成功取决于这些负债能否通过保险来解决。",[14,736,737,738,741],{},"来访的高管们希望伯克希尔能提供一张保单，承担",[628,739,740],{},"所有","未来的石棉赔偿费用。我向他们解释说，虽然我们可以承保一张超大金额的保单——远超任何其它保险公司敢于承诺的——但我们绝不会签发没有赔付上限的保单。",[14,743,744],{},"Bob和Julian当即决定，如果连我们都不敢押上全部身家去赌被收购方的潜在负债，那他们也不干了。于是他们的合并交易告吹了。不过我对Shaw的兴趣就此被点燃，几个月后查理和我与Bob会面，敲定了伯克希尔收购该公司的细节。交易中一条关键条款是，Bob和Julian都将继续持有Shaw至少5%的股权。这使得我们能够与行业中最优秀的人并肩合作——Bob和Julian过往的记录已充分证明了这一点：1998年联手之前，两人各自在地毯行业打造了规模庞大的成功企业。",[14,746,747],{},"Shaw的年销售额约40亿美元，我们持有其87.3%的股权。除保险业务外，Shaw是我们目前最大的企业。现在，要是有人从我们身上踩过去，我们一点都不会介意。",[571,749,750],{},[574,751,752],{},"7月，本杰明·摩尔涂料公司 (Benjamin Moore Paint) 的董事鲍勃·蒙德海姆 (Bob Mundheim) 打电话问伯克希尔是否有兴趣收购该公司。我在所罗门公司 (Salomon) 就认识Bob，他在那里最困难的时期担任法律总顾问，我对他非常敬重。所以我的回答是：“多说两句。”",[14,754,755],{},"8月底，查理和我与理查德·鲁布 (Richard Roob) 和伊万·杜普伊 (Yvan Dupuy) 碰面，两人分别是摩尔涂料的前任和现任CEO。我们很欣赏他们，也很欣赏这家公司，当场开出了10亿美元的全现金报价。10月，该公司董事会批准了交易，12月我们正式完成。摩尔涂料已经造了117年油漆，拥有数千家独立经销商，这是公司最宝贵的资产。下次粉刷房子，记得指定我们的产品。",[571,757,758],{},[574,759,760],{},"最后，12月底，我们同意以约18亿美元收购佳斯迈威公司 (Johns Manville Corp.)。这家公司过去几十年间经历了令人难以置信的曲折传奇——头绪太多，此处无法尽述——这些都源于其作为石棉产品制造商的漫长历史。众所周知，石棉暴露引发的健康问题导致该公司于1982年申请破产。",[14,762,763],{},"之后，破产法院为受害者成立了一个信托基金，其最主要的资产就是佳斯迈威的控股权。这家信托基金出于分散资产配置的合理考虑，去年6月同意将公司出售给一个杠杆收购买家。但最终该买家未能获得融资。",[14,765,766],{},"于是，12月8日周五，交易正式取消。紧接着的周一，查理和我致电信托基金主席鲍勃·菲利斯 (Bob Felise)，提出了一份无融资条件的全现金报价。第二天受托人初步投票通过了我们的报价，一周后我们签署了正式合同。",[14,768,769],{},"佳斯迈威是全美商用和工业隔热材料的龙头生产商，同时在屋顶系统和各类工程产品领域也占据重要地位。公司年销售额超过20亿美元，虽然业务有明显的周期性，但盈利能力不错。该公司CEO杰瑞·亨利 (Jerry Henry) 一年前已宣布退休计划，不过我很高兴地向各位报告，查理和我已经成功说服他继续留任。",[593,771],{},[14,773,774],{},"去年并购活动如此密集，大概有两个经济因素起了推动作用。首先，许多经理人和企业主预见到自家业务即将放缓——事实上，我们收购的几家公司今年的收益几乎可以肯定会从1999年或2000年的峰值回落。这种下滑对我们毫无影响，因为我们本来就预料到所有企业都会时不时经历起伏。（只有在投资银行的推销演示中，收益才会永远向上。）我们不在乎短期波动，真正重要的是长期的整体结果。但其他人的决策有时会受到短期前景的影响，这既能增加卖方出售的意愿，也能降低本来可能与我们竞争的买家的热情。",[14,776,777],{},"让我们在2000年如鱼得水的第二个因素是，垃圾债券市场在这一年里逐渐枯竭。此前两年，垃圾债券投资者不断降低标准，以不合理的价格买入资质越来越差的发行人的债券。这种松懈的恶果在去年以违约激增的形式爆发了出来。在这种环境下，“财务型”买家——也就是那些只想拿出一丁点自有资金来收购企业的人——再也无法借到他们认为需要的全部资金。就算能借到，成本也高得吓人。结果，杠杆收购操盘手在去年遇到出售机会时出价就不那么积极了。由于我们始终以全额股权的方式分析收购，我们的估值标准没有任何变化，这意味着我们的竞争力大大增强了。",[14,779,780],{},"除了上述有利的经济因素之外，我们在收购方面还享有一项日益增长的重大优势：我们往往是卖方的首选买家。当然，这并不能保证交易一定能谈成——卖方得接受我们的价格，我们也得喜欢他们的业务和管理层——但这确实大有帮助。",[14,782,783],{},"我们发现，卖方是否在意公司的归属非常重要。我们喜欢和那些热爱自己公司的人做生意，而不仅仅是看重出售所得的人（当然我们完全理解他也爱钱）。当这种情感纽带存在时，往往意味着这家公司具备许多重要的品质：诚实的财务、对产品的自豪感、对客户的尊重，以及一群方向明确、忠诚可靠的员工。反之亦然。当一个老板拍卖自己的公司，对公司未来的命运毫不关心时，你往往会发现这家公司已经被精心包装过了，尤其当卖方是一个”财务型”股东时更是如此。而当一个老板对自己的公司和员工漠不关心时，他的态度往往会传染到整个公司的风气和行为中去。",[14,785,786],{},"要知道，一件商业杰作凝聚了创始人一生——有时甚至是几代人——倾注的全部心血和非凡才华。对于这样的创始人来说，把公司托付给什么样的企业来延续其历史，是一件至关重要的事情。查理和我相信，伯克希尔几乎可以为这些企业提供一个独一无二的归宿。我们非常认真地对待对企业创始人的承诺，而伯克希尔的所有权结构确保我们能够兑现这些承诺。当我们告诉John Justin他的公司总部将继续留在沃斯堡，或者向Bridge家族保证他们的公司绝不会与另一家珠宝商合并时，这些卖家完全可以放心——我们说到做到。",[14,788,789],{},"与其让信托管理人或漠不关心的继承人把一幅商业”伦勃朗”画作拍卖掉，由”画家”本人亲自为它挑选永久的归宿岂不是好得多？这些年来，我们与那些深谙此道并将其付诸实践的创始人有过许多美好的合作经历。至于拍卖式出售的生意，就留给别人去做吧。",[18,791,792],{"id":792},"财产意外险的经营之道",[14,794,795],{},"保险是我们最主要的业务——当然我们也有其它非常重要的业务。因此，要理解伯克希尔，你就必须懂得如何评估一家保险公司。关键的决定因素是：(1) 这个业务能产生多少浮存金；(2) 浮存金的成本如何；(3) 最关键的是，这两个因素的长期前景。",[14,797,798],{},"首先说什么是浮存金：它是我们持有但并不属于我们的资金。在保险经营中，浮存金的产生是因为保费先于理赔支付而收取，这个时间差有时长达数年。在此期间，保险公司可以将这笔资金用于投资。这项美差通常伴随着一个代价：保险公司收取的保费一般不足以覆盖最终需要支付的损失和费用，由此产生”承保损失”，这就是浮存金的成本。如果一家保险公司的浮存金成本长期低于其通过其它渠道获取资金的成本，那么这项业务就有价值。但如果浮存金成本高于市场利率，那它就是一颗酸柠檬。",[14,800,801],{},"这里需要提醒大家注意：由于损失成本必须依靠估算，保险公司在核定承保结果时有着极大的自由裁量空间，这使得投资者很难精确计算一家保险公司真正的浮存金成本。估算误差——通常是无心的，但有时是故意的——可能大得惊人。这些估算偏差会直接反映到公司的收益上。有经验的行家通常可以发现准备金提列中的重大错误，但普通投资者除了被动接受所呈现的数字之外别无选择。我有时会被那些由知名会计师事务所默认背书的数字惊得目瞪口呆。许多保险公司的损益表和资产负债表都布满了地雷。",[14,803,804],{},"在伯克希尔，我们在提列准备金时力求前后一致并采取保守立场。但我们也会犯错。我要提醒各位：保险业务中的意外几乎从来都不是好消息。",[14,806,807],{},"下表按时间间隔列示了伯克希尔自34年前收购国民保险公司 (National Indemnity Company) 进入保险行业以来各业务板块产生的浮存金（国民保险的传统业务包含在”其它直保”项下）。我们计算浮存金的方法——相对于保费收入，我们持有的浮存金规模相当可观——是将净损失准备金、损失调整准备金、再保险预收款和未到期保费准备金加总，再减去应收保险款项、预付承保费用、预付税款及再保险相关递延费用。（别紧张，不会考试的。）",[14,809,810],{},"年末浮存金（百万美元）",[22,812,813,834],{},[25,814,815],{},[28,816,817,819,822,825,828,831],{},[31,818,33],{},[31,820,821],{},"盖可保险",[31,823,824],{},"通用再保险",[31,826,827],{},"其它再保险",[31,829,830],{},"其它直保",[31,832,833],{},"合计",[44,835,836,851,868,885,903,922,941],{},[28,837,838,840,842,844,846,849],{},[49,839,79],{},[49,841],{},[49,843],{},[49,845],{},[49,847,848],{},"20",[49,850,848],{},[28,852,853,855,857,859,862,865],{},[49,854,218],{},[49,856],{},[49,858],{},[49,860,861],{},"40",[49,863,864],{},"131",[49,866,867],{},"171",[28,869,870,872,874,876,879,882],{},[49,871,353],{},[49,873],{},[49,875],{},[49,877,878],{},"701",[49,880,881],{},"807",[49,883,884],{},"1,508",[28,886,887,889,892,894,897,900],{},[49,888,488],{},[49,890,891],{},"2,917",[49,893],{},[49,895,896],{},"4,014",[49,898,899],{},"455",[49,901,902],{},"7,386",[28,904,905,907,910,913,916,919],{},[49,906,502],{},[49,908,909],{},"3,125",[49,911,912],{},"14,909",[49,914,915],{},"4,305",[49,917,918],{},"415",[49,920,921],{},"22,754",[28,923,924,926,929,932,935,938],{},[49,925,516],{},[49,927,928],{},"3,444",[49,930,931],{},"15,166",[49,933,934],{},"6,285",[49,936,937],{},"403",[49,939,940],{},"25,298",[28,942,943,945,948,951,954,957],{},[49,944,530],{},[49,946,947],{},"3,943",[49,949,950],{},"15,525",[49,952,953],{},"7,805",[49,955,956],{},"598",[49,958,959],{},"27,871",[14,961,962],{},"2000年浮存金的增长令我们欣慰，但其成本却不尽人意。多年来，我们的浮存金成本基本接近于零——多数年份的承保利润足以弥补偶尔糟糕的年份，比如1984年，那一年的资金成本高达惊人的19%。然而2000年，我们的承保损失达到16亿美元，浮存金成本飙升至6%。除非发生超级大灾难，我们预计2001年的浮存金成本将会下降——也许会大幅下降——这主要归功于通用再保险的定价纠偏措施，其效果在全年将会逐步显现。规模较小的盖可保险也有望出现同样的改善趋势。",[14,964,965,966,969],{},"影响我们浮存金成本的有两个因素，在其它保险公司那里非常罕见，但在伯克希尔却越来越突出。第一，目前正遭受巨额损失的少数保险公司，以一种会拖累我们当期收益、但能为我们提供多年可用浮存金的方式，将大量业务转移给了我们。在保单第一年记录损失之后，此后再",[628,967,968],{},"无","任何额外成本。",[14,971,972],{},"只要定价合理，我们乐于接受这类先苦后甜的安排。1999年，我们承保损失中有4亿美元（约占总损失的27.8%）来自此类业务；2000年这个数字是4.82亿美元（占总损失的34.4%）。我们无法预测未来每年能接到多少类似的业务，但一旦有，金额通常都不小。由于这类交易可能严重扭曲我们的数字，每当发生时我都会告诉各位。",[14,974,975],{},"其它再保险公司对这类业务兴趣不大。它们实在受不了巨额承保损失对财务报表造成的冲击，尽管这些亏损来自长期经济效益确定不错的保单。因此，在将我们的承保结果与其它保险公司对比时，请务必注意这一点。",[14,977,978,979,982],{},"我们数字中还有一个更重要的科目——同样在别处很难找到——来自于这样一类交易：我们承担一家希望甩掉历史包袱的公司的",[628,980,981],{},"过去","损失。举个例子，某家XYZ保险公司可能在去年向我们购买了一张保单，约定由我们支付1995年及更早年份发生事件所导致的前10亿美元损失和损失调整费用。这类合同的金额可以非常巨大，不过我们总是会设定一个赔付上限。2000年我们签了好几笔这样的交易，预计2001年还会完成更多。",[14,984,985],{},"根据通用会计准则 (GAAP)，这种”追溯”保险既不增加也不减少我们当期的收益。我们会在资产负债表上设立一项名为”再保险相关递延费用”的资产，金额等于我们收取的保费与预计将支付的（更高的）损失之间的差额（损失准备金在收到保费时即刻全额计提）。然后我们逐年摊销这项资产，每年计入等额的承保损失。大家可以在我们的季度和年度管理层讨论中找到这类交易带来的损失金额。从性质上看，这类损失会持续很多年，往往长达数十年。但作为补偿，我们获得了大量浮存金的使用权。",[14,987,988],{},"很显然，这类附带年度成本的浮存金，不如我们从预期能产生承保利润的保单中获得的浮存金那么理想（后者我们有很多）。尽管如此，追溯再保险对我们来说仍然算得上是一桩不错的买卖。",[14,990,991],{},"综合以上各项因素，最终得出的结论是：(a) 我预期我们未来的浮存金成本将非常有吸引力；但 (b) 由于追溯再保险每年需要计提费用，浮存金不太可能回到”零成本”的状态。另外——这一点显而易见——浮存金对我们的最终价值不仅取决于获取成本，还同等重要地取决于我们运用浮存金的效率。",[14,993,994],{},"我们的追溯再保险业务几乎完全是阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 一人的杰作，我年年都对他赞不绝口。阿吉特对伯克希尔的价值无论怎么高估都不过分。别操心我的健康了，多操心他的吧。",[14,996,997],{},"去年，阿吉特从一家英国大型保险公司拿回了一笔24亿美元的追溯再保险保费，这可能是有史以来最大的单笔再保险保费。随后，他又为德州游骑兵队 (Texas Rangers) 承保了一张大额保单，保的是亚历克斯·罗德里格斯 (Alex Rodriguez) 可能永久残疾的风险。体育迷们都知道，“A-Rod”签了一份创纪录的2.52亿美元合同，我们这张保单大概也创下了失能保险的纪录。此外，我们还为许多其他体育明星承保。",[14,999,1000],{},"阿吉特去年秋天又展示了他的多才多艺，与一家名为Grab.com的互联网公司谈成了一笔非常有意思的交易。这家公司的目标是吸引数百万人访问其网站，从中提取对营销人员有用的信息。为了吸引眼球，Grab.com推出了一项10亿美元的大奖（现值约1.7亿美元），由我们承保支付。网站上的说明指出，中奖概率极低，事实上也确实无人中奖。但中奖的可能性并非为零。",[14,1002,1003],{},"承保这类保单，我们收取一笔不大的保费，面临巨额损失的可能性，但概率对我们有利。很少有保险公司喜欢这种等式。而且它们也没办法通过再保险来化解这种不适。因为每张保单都有不同寻常的——有时甚至是独一无二的——特征，保险公司无法通过标准的再保险安排来分摊偶发的巨额损失。因此，签发这类业务的保险公司CEO必须承担一个概率不大但确实存在的风险：某个季度的收益数字可能难看得让人无法直视——而这个数字他可不愿意向董事会或股东解释。不过查理和我呢，只要一项交易在数学概率上说得通，我们就喜欢，完全不在乎它对报告收益的影响。",[14,1005,1006],{},"在通用再保险方面，消息明显好转了。罗恩·弗格森 (Ron Ferguson) 携乔·布兰登 (Joe Brandon)、塔德·蒙特罗斯 (Tad Montross) 以及一支能干的团队，在2000年采取了许多措施，将公司的盈利能力拉回到过去的水准。虽然我们的定价尚未完全修正到位，但对于严重亏损的业务，我们已经大幅调整了价格或干脆放弃。如果2001年不发生超级大灾难，通用再保险的浮存金成本应该会大幅下降。",[14,1008,1009],{},"过去几年对Ron和他的团队来说一点都不轻松。但他们勇于面对艰难的决策，查理和我为此向他们致敬。通用再保险拥有几项重要且持久的业务优势。更可贵的是，它拥有能够充分发挥这些优势的经理人。",[14,1011,1012],{},"整体而言，我们规模较小的保险业务在2000年取得了出色的承保利润，同时产生了可观的浮存金——就像过去十多年来一直做到的那样。如果这些公司是一家独立运营的企业，人们一定会认为它是一家一流的保险公司。只是因为它们身处伯克希尔这么庞大的企业体中，外界可能无法充分理解它们的成就——但我心里清楚得很。去年我感谢过Rod Eldred、John Kizer、Don Towle和Don Wurster，今年我再次表示感谢。此外，现在还要加上美国责任保险公司的Tom Nerney和Cypress保险新任负责人迈克尔·斯特恩斯 (Michael Stearns)。",[14,1014,1015],{},"大家可能注意到，过去我常常夸奖的Cypress保险前CEO布拉德·金斯特勒 (Brad Kinstler) 已经不在上面的名单里了。那是因为我们位于辛辛那提的费希海默制服公司 (Fechheimer Bros.) 需要一位新的负责人，我们就请Brad过去了。在伯克希尔我们很少在不同企业间调动经理人，但也许我们应该多试试：Brad在新岗位上照样打出了全垒打，一如他在Cypress时的表现。",[18,1017,1019],{"id":1018},"盖可保险1-800-847-7536-geicocom","盖可保险（1-800-847-7536 \u002F GEICO.com）",[14,1021,1022],{},"下面照例是一张展示盖可保险增长情况的表格。去年我满腔热情地告诉各位，我们将在2000年加大广告投入，而且这是盖可保险能做的最好的投资。我错了：我们额外投入的广告费并没有带来相应的咨询量增长。而且，咨询转化为成交的比例也多年来首次出现下滑。这两项不利因素叠加在一起，导致我们每张保单的获取成本急剧上升。",[22,1024,1025,1037],{},[25,1026,1027],{},[28,1028,1029,1031,1034],{},[31,1030,33],{},[31,1032,1033],{},"新增自愿保单数 (1)",[31,1035,1036],{},"有效保单数量 (1)",[44,1038,1039,1049,1059,1069,1079,1089,1099,1109],{},[28,1040,1041,1043,1046],{},[49,1042,433],{},[49,1044,1045],{},"346,882",[49,1047,1048],{},"2,011,055",[28,1050,1051,1053,1056],{},[49,1052,447],{},[49,1054,1055],{},"384,217",[49,1057,1058],{},"2,147,549",[28,1060,1061,1063,1066],{},[49,1062,461],{},[49,1064,1065],{},"443,539",[49,1067,1068],{},"2,310,037",[28,1070,1071,1073,1076],{},[49,1072,474],{},[49,1074,1075],{},"592,300",[49,1077,1078],{},"2,543,699",[28,1080,1081,1083,1086],{},[49,1082,488],{},[49,1084,1085],{},"868,430",[49,1087,1088],{},"2,949,439",[28,1090,1091,1093,1096],{},[49,1092,502],{},[49,1094,1095],{},"1,249,875",[49,1097,1098],{},"3,562,644",[28,1100,1101,1103,1106],{},[49,1102,516],{},[49,1104,1105],{},"1,648,095",[49,1107,1108],{},"4,328,900",[28,1110,1111,1113,1116],{},[49,1112,530],{},[49,1114,1115],{},"1,472,853",[49,1117,1118],{},"4,696,842",[1120,1121,1122],"ol",{},[574,1123,1124],{},"仅为”自愿”保单，不包括指定风险等。",[14,1126,1127,1128,1131],{},"纠结于错误本身是个错误。但承认并分析错误却大有裨益，尽管这种做法在企业高层会议上实属罕见。查理和我几乎从未见过哪家公司的董事会坦诚地对一项失败的决策进行事后复盘——",[628,1129,1130],{},"尤其是与收购有关的决策","。一个值得称道的例外是华盛顿邮报公司 (The Washington Post Company)，它始终不渝地在收购完成三年后进行客观的回顾评估。其它公司呢？成功了就大张旗鼓，愚蠢的决策要么无人跟进，要么就被合理化了。",[14,1133,1134],{},"这些败笔在财务上的后果，通常被塞进大规模的重组费用或一次性减值里，随便挥挥手就说是”非经常性”的。管理层最爱干这种事了。事实上，近年来似乎没有哪张损益表上少得了这些项目。然而这些费用的来龙去脉却从无人追究。一谈到公司犯的错误，CEO们就祭出”无性生殖”的说辞。",[14,1136,1137],{},"回到对盖可保险的检讨：去年获客成本大幅上升，至少有四个因素可以解释，而且很可能每个因素都起了一定作用。",[14,1139,1140],{},"第一，我们在广告上的投放频率太高，在某些媒体上可能用力过猛了。我们一直都知道，在任何媒体上增加曝光频次最终会产生递减效应。在同一个有线电视频道一小时内播出的第三条广告，效果肯定不如第一条。",[14,1142,1143],{},"第二，我们可能已经把容易摘到的果子都摘光了。显然，愿意与保险直销商打交道的意愿因人而异：事实上，有一定比例的美国人——尤其是老年人——不愿意直接购买任何东西。不过随着时间的推移，这种排斥感终将消退。新一代有着新习惯的年轻人会发现，直接购买汽车保险节省下来的钱实在太诱人了，不容忽视。",[14,1145,1146],{},"第三，一个确定无疑会降低咨询转化率的因素是盖可保险收紧了核保标准。去年理赔的频率和严重程度都在上升，某些地区的费率变得不够用，有些甚至严重不足。在这种情况下，我们不得不提高核保标准。核保收紧加上年内多次上调费率，使得我们的产品对部分潜在客户的吸引力下降了。",[14,1148,1149],{},"必须强调的是，绝大多数打电话来咨询的客户在我们这里投保仍然能省钱。不过，可以理解的是，有些人愿意为了每年省200美元而换保险公司，却不愿意为了省50美元而折腾。因此，费率上调使我们的价格更接近竞争对手，即使我们仍然提供最优惠的价格，也会影响我们的客户接受率。",[14,1151,1152],{},"最后，竞争格局至少在一个重要方面发生了变化：州立农业保险 (State Farm)——以约19%的市场份额遥遥领先的个人车险巨头——提价速度非常缓慢。然而它的成本增长速度显然与行业其它公司不相上下。结果，州立农业保险去年的汽车保险承保损失率（包括退还保户的返利）高达保费收入的18%，而盖可保险只有4%。即便如此，我们的浮存金成本也达到了6.1%，这个结果令人不满意。（事实上，在盖可保险，我们长期预期浮存金应该是免费的。）但我们估计州立农业保险2000年的浮存金成本大约是23%。当行业中最大的玩家愿意容忍如此高昂的经营成本时，其它参与者的日子就可想而知了。",[14,1154,1155],{},"不过这丝毫不影响州立农业保险作为美国最伟大的商业传奇之一的地位。我一直建议商学院应该把这家公司作为案例来研究，因为它的成功之路在很多方面都与学术教条相悖。研究反例是一种极其有用的学习方法，尽管在学术殿堂里不一定总受欢迎。",[14,1157,1158],{},"州立农业保险于1922年由伊利诺伊州一位45岁的半退休农民创立，目的是与那些历史悠久的保险巨头——纽约、费城和哈特福德那些傲慢的老牌机构——一较高下，而后者在资本、声誉和渠道上拥有压倒性的优势。由于州立农业保险是一家互助制公司，其董事和经理人不能持有股份，在高速成长期也无法进入资本市场融资。同样，这家公司从来没有许多人认为一家美国企业若要吸引优秀经理人并蓬勃发展所必需的股票期权或高额薪酬。",[14,1160,1161],{},"然而到最后，州立农业保险竟然超越了所有竞争对手。事实上，到1999年，该公司积累的有形净资产已经超过了美国除四家以外的所有企业。如果你想知道这一切是怎么发生的，找一本《The Farmer from Merna》来读读吧。",[14,1163,1164],{},"尽管州立农业保险实力强大，盖可保险的商业模式更胜一筹，因为其运营成本要低得多。而当一家公司销售的是具有大宗商品属性的产品时，做到最低成本生产商就是一切。盖可保险这项持久的竞争优势——早在1951年，当时我还是一个20岁的学生，第一次迷上这只股票的时候就已经存在了——注定了它的市场份额终将大幅增长，同时保持出色的盈利能力。不过，如果州立农业保险选择继续忍受当前的承保损失，我们的增长速度势必会放慢。",[14,1166,1167,1168,1171],{},"盖可保险的CEO托尼·奈斯利 (Tony Nicely) 仍然是每个老板梦寐以求的经营人才。他做的每一件事都恰到好处。当意外发生时，他从不像许多经理人那样一厢情愿或扭曲现实。2000年，Tony削减了不具成本效益的广告投入；如果需要，2001年他还会继续削减（不过我们始终会保持",[628,1169,1170],{},"大规模","的媒体曝光率）。Tony还积极地在需要提价的地方申请费率上调。他每天都盯着损失报告，从不落后于形势。借用一句竞争对手的广告词：有Tony掌舵，我们尽管放心。",[14,1173,1174],{},"我曾向各位介绍过盖可保险的利润分享计划，该计划只盯两个指标——保单增长率和老保单的承保业绩。尽管2000年逆风不断，我们仍然取得了足以支付8.8%利润分享的业绩，金额约4,070万美元。",[14,1176,1177,1178,1181],{},"盖可保险在伯克希尔的未来将扮演举足轻重的角色。凭借最低的运营成本，它为广大美国民众提供了购买一种他们",[628,1179,1180],{},"必须","购买的高价产品的最便宜方式。同时，公司的服务质量在各项独立调查中始终名列前茅。这样的组合注定会带来持续的增长和盈利。",[14,1183,1184,1185,1188],{},"就在最近几年，已经有",[628,1186,1187],{},"远远","更多的驾驶人把盖可保险这个品牌与省钱联系在一起。我们将毫不松懈地反复传递这一主题，直到所有美国人都知道我们提供的价值。",[18,1190,1191],{"id":1191},"股票投资",[14,1193,1194],{},"下表列示了我们持有的普通股投资。其中2000年底市值超过10亿美元的逐一列出。",[22,1196,1197,1213],{},[25,1198,1199],{},[28,1200,1201,1204,1207,1210],{},[31,1202,1203],{},"股份数量",[31,1205,1206],{},"公司名称",[31,1208,1209],{},"成本* 2000年12月31日（百万美元）",[31,1211,1212],{},"市值 2000年12月31日（百万美元）",[44,1214,1215,1229,1243,1257,1271,1285,1298],{},[28,1216,1217,1220,1223,1226],{},[49,1218,1219],{},"151,610,700",[49,1221,1222],{},"美国运通 (American Express)",[49,1224,1225],{},"$ 1,470",[49,1227,1228],{},"$ 8,329",[28,1230,1231,1234,1237,1240],{},[49,1232,1233],{},"200,000,000",[49,1235,1236],{},"可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)",[49,1238,1239],{},"1,299",[49,1241,1242],{},"12,188",[28,1244,1245,1248,1251,1254],{},[49,1246,1247],{},"96,000,000",[49,1249,1250],{},"吉列 (Gillette)",[49,1252,1253],{},"600",[49,1255,1256],{},"3,468",[28,1258,1259,1262,1265,1268],{},[49,1260,1261],{},"1,727,765",[49,1263,1264],{},"华盛顿邮报 (The Washington Post)",[49,1266,1267],{},"11",[49,1269,1270],{},"1,066",[28,1272,1273,1276,1279,1282],{},[49,1274,1275],{},"55,071,380",[49,1277,1278],{},"富国银行 (Wells Fargo)",[49,1280,1281],{},"319",[49,1283,1284],{},"3,067",[28,1286,1287,1289,1292,1295],{},[49,1288],{},[49,1290,1291],{},"其它",[49,1293,1294],{},"6,703",[49,1296,1297],{},"9,501",[28,1299,1300,1302,1305,1308],{},[49,1301],{},[49,1303,1304],{},"普通股合计",[49,1306,1307],{},"$ 10,402",[49,1309,1310],{},"$ 37,619",[14,1312,1313],{},"2000年，我们几乎卖光了所有的房地美 (Freddie Mac) 和房利美 (Fannie Mae) 持股，以15%左右的仓位买入了几家中型公司，买了少数几家发行人的高收益债券（确实很少——这个类别被叫做”垃圾债券”不是没有原因的），并增持了高等级抵押贷款支持证券。目前我们的持仓中没有什么”便宜货”：我们对手上的东西还算满意，但远说不上兴奋。",[14,1315,1316],{},"许多人以为有价证券是伯克希尔配置资金的首选，其实不然：自1983年我们首次公布经营原则以来，就一直明确表示我们更愿意买下整家企业而非买股票。（见第60页第4条。）这个偏好有一部分是个人原因——我喜欢与我们的经理人一起共事。他们品格高尚、才华横溢、忠诚可靠。而且坦白说，我觉得他们的商业行为比许多上市公司更理性、更以股东利益为导向。",[14,1318,1319],{},"但买整家公司的偏好背后还有一个强有力的财务理由，与税收有关。税法使得伯克希尔持有一家企业80%以上的股权，从比例上来说，比持有较小比例要有利得多。当一家我们全资拥有的公司税后赚了100万美元时，这笔钱全部归我们所有。如果这100万美元上缴给伯克希尔，我们不需要为这笔股利缴税。而且，如果收益被保留在子公司、我们之后以高于收购价100万美元的价格出售子公司的话——这在伯克希尔几乎不可能发生！——我们也不需要缴纳资本利得税。因为我们在税法上的”成本基础”包含了当初的购买价格加上之后所有保留收益。",[14,1321,1322,1323,1326],{},"拿这种情况和我们持有上市公司股票时的情形对比一下。如果我们持有一家税后年赚1,000万美元的公司10%的股权，我们按比例分得的100万美元要缴纳",[628,1324,1325],{},"额外","的州税和联邦税：(1) 如果以股利形式分配给我们，大约要缴14万美元（我们大多数股利的税率为14%）；或 (2) 如果这100万美元被保留、之后我们以资本利得的形式收回，至少要缴35万美元（我们通常适用的资本利得税率约为35%，有时接近40%）。我们可以通过不立即实现收益来延迟支付那35万美元，但迟早还是要交的。实际上，当我们通过股票投资持有一家企业的部分股权时，政府要分两次蛋糕；而当我们持有80%以上时，政府只能分一次。",[14,1328,1329,1330,1332],{},"撇开税收因素，我们评估股票和企业的方法完全相同。事实上，评估",[628,1331,740],{},"以获取财务回报为目的而购买的资产，用的都是同一个公式，这个公式自公元前600年左右由一位非常聪明的人首次揭示以来就从未改变过（虽然他还没聪明到能知道那是公元前600年）。",[14,1334,1335],{},"这位先知就是伊索 (Aesop)，他那经久不衰但略嫌不够完整的投资洞见是：“一鸟在手，胜过二鸟在林。”要充实这个原则，你只需回答三个问题：你有多大把握确定树林里确实有鸟？它们什么时候会飞出来，数量有多少？无风险利率是多少？（我们认为这是美国长期国债的收益率。）如果你能回答这三个问题，你就能知道这片树林最高值多少——以及你手里的鸟最多该拿出几只去换。当然，别真的去想鸟，要想的是美元。",[14,1337,1338],{},"伊索的投资公理经过如此扩展并换算为美元之后，是一条颠扑不破的真理。它适用于农场、石油开采权、债券、股票、彩票和工厂的投资。无论是蒸汽机的发明、电力的驾驭还是汽车的问世，都丝毫没有改变这个公式——互联网也一样。只要代入正确的数字，你就可以对全世界所有资金用途的吸引力进行排名。",[14,1340,1341,1342,1345],{},"常见的估值指标如股息率、市盈率、市净率，甚至增长率，本身与估值",[628,1343,1344],{},"毫无","关系——除非它们能为一家企业未来现金流入和流出的金额及时间提供线索。事实上，如果一项投资早期投入的现金超过了它日后产出的现金的折现值，那么增长反而是在摧毁价值。那些信口开河地把”成长型”和”价值型”说成是两种对立投资风格的市场评论员和基金经理人，暴露的是他们的无知而非他们的精明。成长不过是价值等式中的一个变量——通常是加分项，但有时候是减分项。",[14,1347,1348],{},"可惜的是，尽管伊索的命题和第三个变量——即利率——都很简单，要为另外两个变量填入数字却是一项困难的工作。使用精确的数字实际上是愚蠢的做法；更好的方法是在一个可能的范围内进行估算。",[14,1350,1351],{},"通常，这个范围不得不非常宽泛，以至于无法得出有用的结论。不过偶尔，即使对树林中鸟儿最终出现的数量做出非常保守的估计，也会发现当前的报价相对于价值低得惊人。（我们姑且把这种现象叫做IBT——低效树丛理论。）当然，投资者需要对企业的商业模式有一定的了解，同时具备独立思考的能力，才能得出有理有据的肯定结论。但投资者不需要才华横溢，也不需要什么惊天洞察力。",[14,1353,1354,1355,1358,1359,1362],{},"在另一个极端，有很多时候，即使是",[628,1356,1357],{},"最","聪明的投资者也无法对树林中的鸟儿做出任何有把握的判断——即使使用的是非常宽泛的估计范围。这种不确定性在审视新兴企业和快速变化的行业时尤为常见。在这种情况下，",[628,1360,1361],{},"任何","投入资金的行为都只能被归为投机。",[14,1364,1365],{},"说到投机——关注的不是一项资产将会产出什么，而是下一个人愿意为它出多少钱——投机既不违法，也不违背道德，更不有悖美国精神。但这不是查理和我想玩的游戏。我们上了牌桌却没带任何筹码，凭什么指望能赢钱回家呢？",[14,1367,1368],{},"投资和投机之间的界限从来就不是一条清晰的明线，而当大多数市场参与者最近都尝到了甜头之后，这条线就变得更加模糊了。再没有什么比大笔不劳而获的金钱更能麻痹理性了。经历了那种令人飘飘然的体验之后，平时再理性的人也会像舞会上的灰姑娘一样忘乎所以。他们心里清楚，在舞会上待得太久——也就是继续投机那些估值远远脱离未来现金流的公司——最终南瓜马车和老鼠将会现出原形。但他们还是舍不得错过这场狂欢的每一分钟。于是，兴高采烈的参与者们都打算在午夜钟声敲响前几秒钟离开。可问题是：他们跳舞的这个大厅里，时钟没有指针！",[14,1370,1371],{},"去年，我们评论了当时弥漫的狂热——没错，那是非理性的——并指出投资者的预期回报已经是实际可能回报的好几倍了。其中一个证据来自普惠证券 (Paine Webber) 和盖洛普 (Gallup) 在1999年12月对投资者进行的调查，受访者被问及对未来十年年均投资回报的预期。答案的平均值是19%。这毫无疑问是一种非理性的预期：对整个美国商业而言，2009年的树林里根本不可能藏着足够多的鸟儿来支撑这样的回报。",[14,1373,1374],{},"更加疯狂的是，市场参与者给那些几乎可以肯定最终只值一点钱甚至一文不值的企业打上了天价标签。然而投资者们被持续飙升的股价迷住了心窍，不顾一切地涌入这些企业。就好像有一种病毒在专业投资者和散户中野火般蔓延，引发了一种集体幻觉：某些行业的股价与其背后企业的价值完全脱了钩。",[14,1376,1377],{},"伴随着这种超现实的场景，到处充斥着”价值创造”的空话。我们坦然承认，过去十年里新兴企业确实创造了大量的真实价值，未来还会创造更多。但是，任何一家终其一生都在亏损的企业，不管中间的估值被炒到多高，它都是在摧毁价值，而非创造价值。",[14,1379,1380,1381,1384,1385,1388,1389,1392],{},"这些案例中真正发生的是财富的",[628,1382,1383],{},"转移","——而且往往是大规模的转移。近年来，那些厚颜无耻地推销无鸟之林的推手们，将数十亿美元从公众的口袋转移到了自己（以及他们的朋友和同伙）的腰包里。事实就是：泡沫市场催生了泡沫公司，这些公司在设计之初就更侧重于从投资者身上",[628,1386,1387],{},"赚钱","，而非",[628,1390,1391],{},"帮","投资者赚钱。太多时候，上市圈钱——而非盈利——才是公司幕后推手的首要目标。说到底，这些公司的”商业模式“不过是老掉牙的连锁信骗局的翻版，而无数渴望赚取手续费的投资银行家则心甘情愿地充当了邮差。",[14,1394,1395],{},"但每个泡沫都有一根针在等着它。当两者终于相遇时，新一批投资者学到了一些很古老的教训：第一，华尔街——一个不太注重品控的地方——只要投资者肯买，什么都敢卖。第二，投机看起来越容易，实际上就越危险。",[14,1397,1398,1399,1402],{},"在伯克希尔，我们",[628,1400,1401],{},"完全","不去试图从茫茫的未经验证的企业海洋中挑出那少数几个赢家。我们没那个本事，这一点我们心知肚明。相反，我们试图用伊索那个2,600年前的古老公式来评估那些我们有合理把握知道树林里有多少鸟、它们什么时候会飞出来的机会（我孙子们大概会把这个说法更新为”敞篷车里坐着一个女孩，胜过电话簿上写着五个女孩”）。显然，我们永远不可能精确预测一家企业现金流入和流出的时间和金额。因此，我们力求保守估算，并把注意力集中在那些不太可能出现灾难性意外的行业上。即便如此，我们还是经常犯错：别忘了，我就是那个曾经自以为搞懂了印花票、纺织品、制鞋业和二流百货商店的未来经济前景的人。",[14,1404,1405],{},"近来，最有前景的”树丛”一直是通过协商交易收购整家企业，这让我们很满意。不过大家必须清楚地认识到，这类收购充其量只能给我们带来合理的回报。真正丰厚的协商交易回报，只有在资本市场极度紧缩、整个商业世界弥漫着悲观情绪的时候才能期待。而我们目前离那种状态差了整整180度。",[18,1407,1408],{"id":1408},"报告收益的来源",[14,1410,1411],{},"下表列示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在这种呈现方式中，购买法会计调整没有分配到其所对应的具体业务，而是汇总单独列示。这样做是为了让各位看到，如果我们没有买下这些企业，它们的收益会是什么样子。出于第65页所讨论的原因，我们认为这种呈现方式比通用会计准则 (GAAP) 要求的按逐个企业摊销购买溢价的方式，对投资者和经理人更有用。表中的净收益合计数字与经审计的财务报表中的GAAP数字当然完全一致。",[22,1413,1414,1430],{},[25,1415,1416],{},[28,1417,1418,1420,1423,1425,1428],{},[31,1419],{},[31,1421,1422],{},"税前收益",[31,1424,1422],{},[31,1426,1427],{},"税后收益（伯克希尔应占）",[31,1429,1427],{},[44,1431,1432,1445,1458,1471,1488,1505,1521,1538,1555,1572,1588,1605,1622,1637,1654,1671,1686,1702,1719,1736],{},[28,1433,1434,1437,1439,1441,1443],{},[49,1435,1436],{},"（百万美元）",[49,1438,530],{},[49,1440,516],{},[49,1442,530],{},[49,1444,516],{},[28,1446,1447,1450,1452,1454,1456],{},[49,1448,1449],{},"经营收益：",[49,1451],{},[49,1453],{},[49,1455],{},[49,1457],{},[28,1459,1460,1463,1465,1467,1469],{},[49,1461,1462],{},"保险集团：",[49,1464],{},[49,1466],{},[49,1468],{},[49,1470],{},[28,1472,1473,1476,1479,1482,1485],{},[49,1474,1475],{},"承保——再保险",[49,1477,1478],{},"$ (1,399)",[49,1480,1481],{},"$ (1,440)",[49,1483,1484],{},"$ (899)",[49,1486,1487],{},"$ (927)",[28,1489,1490,1493,1496,1499,1502],{},[49,1491,1492],{},"承保——盖可保险",[49,1494,1495],{},"(224)",[49,1497,1498],{},"24",[49,1500,1501],{},"(146)",[49,1503,1504],{},"16",[28,1506,1507,1510,1513,1516,1518],{},[49,1508,1509],{},"承保——其它直保",[49,1511,1512],{},"38",[49,1514,1515],{},"22",[49,1517,1498],{},[49,1519,1520],{},"14",[28,1522,1523,1526,1529,1532,1535],{},[49,1524,1525],{},"保险投资净收益",[49,1527,1528],{},"2,747",[49,1530,1531],{},"2,482",[49,1533,1534],{},"1,929",[49,1536,1537],{},"1,764",[28,1539,1540,1543,1546,1549,1552],{},[49,1541,1542],{},"金融业务",[49,1544,1545],{},"556",[49,1547,1548],{},"125",[49,1550,1551],{},"360",[49,1553,1554],{},"86",[28,1556,1557,1560,1563,1566,1569],{},[49,1558,1559],{},"航空服务",[49,1561,1562],{},"213",[49,1564,1565],{},"225",[49,1567,1568],{},"126",[49,1570,1571],{},"132",[28,1573,1574,1577,1580,1583,1586],{},[49,1575,1576],{},"中美能源（占76%）",[49,1578,1579],{},"197",[49,1581,1582],{},"–",[49,1584,1585],{},"109",[49,1587,1582],{},[28,1589,1590,1593,1596,1599,1602],{},[49,1591,1592],{},"零售业务",[49,1594,1595],{},"175",[49,1597,1598],{},"130",[49,1600,1601],{},"104",[49,1603,1604],{},"77",[28,1606,1607,1610,1613,1616,1619],{},[49,1608,1609],{},"斯科特费泽（不含金融业务）",[49,1611,1612],{},"122",[49,1614,1615],{},"147",[49,1617,1618],{},"80",[49,1620,1621],{},"92",[28,1623,1624,1627,1629,1632,1635],{},[49,1625,1626],{},"其它业务",[49,1628,1565],{},[49,1630,1631],{},"210",[49,1633,1634],{},"134",[49,1636,864],{},[28,1638,1639,1642,1645,1648,1651],{},[49,1640,1641],{},"购买法会计调整",[49,1643,1644],{},"(881)",[49,1646,1647],{},"(739)",[49,1649,1650],{},"(843)",[49,1652,1653],{},"(648)",[28,1655,1656,1659,1662,1665,1668],{},[49,1657,1658],{},"公司利息费用",[49,1660,1661],{},"(92)",[49,1663,1664],{},"(109)",[49,1666,1667],{},"(61)",[49,1669,1670],{},"(70)",[28,1672,1673,1676,1679,1681,1684],{},[49,1674,1675],{},"股东指定捐赠",[49,1677,1678],{},"(17)",[49,1680,1678],{},[49,1682,1683],{},"(11)",[49,1685,1683],{},[28,1687,1688,1690,1693,1696,1699],{},[49,1689,1291],{},[49,1691,1692],{},"39",[49,1694,1695],{},"25",[49,1697,1698],{},"30",[49,1700,1701],{},"15",[28,1703,1704,1707,1710,1713,1716],{},[49,1705,1706],{},"经营收益合计",[49,1708,1709],{},"1,699",[49,1711,1712],{},"1,085",[49,1714,1715],{},"936",[49,1717,1718],{},"671",[28,1720,1721,1724,1727,1730,1733],{},[49,1722,1723],{},"投资资本利得",[49,1725,1726],{},"3,955",[49,1728,1729],{},"1,365",[49,1731,1732],{},"2,392",[49,1734,1735],{},"886",[28,1737,1738,1741,1744,1747,1750],{},[49,1739,1740],{},"所有实体收益合计",[49,1742,1743],{},"$ 5,654",[49,1745,1746],{},"$ 2,450",[49,1748,1749],{},"$ 3,328",[49,1751,1752],{},"$ 1,557",[14,1754,1755],{},"去年，我们旗下大部分制造、零售和服务业务的表现至少都相当不错。",[14,1757,1758],{},"唯一的例外是制鞋业，尤其是德克斯特鞋业 (Dexter)。在我们的制鞋业务中，试图把大部分生产保留在国内工厂的做法让我们付出了高昂的代价。2001年也将是艰难的一年，因为我们正在对经营方式进行重大调整。",[14,1760,1761],{},"1993年买下德克斯特时我付的价格显然是个错误。更糟糕的是，我还以伯克希尔股份作为支付手段，将这个错误放大了许多倍。去年，为了正视这个错误，我们将当初收购德克斯特时产生的所有剩余商誉一次性注销了。未来德克斯特也许能恢复一些经济商誉，但目前显然一点都没有。",[14,1763,1764],{},"我们制鞋业务的经理人，无论从经营能力还是为人品质来说，都是一流的。他们在一份艰苦——而且往往痛苦不堪——的工作中拼尽全力，尽管以他们个人的经济状况完全不必如此。他们令我钦佩，我向他们致谢。",[14,1766,1767],{},"在更令人欣慰的方面，我们在航空服务的两个分支继续保持无可争议的领导地位——飞安国际公司 (FlightSafety，简称FSI) 的飞行员培训业务和公务机航空公司 (Executive Jet，简称EJA) 的飞机共享所有权业务。两家公司至今仍由其杰出的创始人在掌舵。",[14,1769,1770],{},"FSI的阿尔·乌尔奇 (Al Ueltschi) 现年83岁，仍然全速运转。虽然我不喜欢股票拆分，但我打算在Al满100岁时，把他的年龄按2:1进行拆分。（如果有效的话，猜猜下一个轮到谁。）",[14,1772,1773],{},"2000年我们在飞行模拟器上投入了2.72亿美元，今年的投入金额也大致如此。如果有谁认为每年的折旧费用不算真正的成本——不像工资或原材料那样真实——那就该去模拟器公司实习一下。每年我们仅仅为了维持现有的经济地位，就必须花掉与折旧金额相当的钱——要想增长，还得再额外掏钱。FSI的增长前景在可预见的未来依然可期。",[14,1775,1776],{},"增长更快的是EJA（其飞机共享所有权业务品牌为NetJets®）。里奇·桑图利 (Rich Santulli) 是这项业务背后的灵魂人物。",[14,1778,1779],{},"去年我告诉各位，EJA来自月度管理费和飞行小时费的经常性收入在1999年增长了46%。2000年增幅达到49%。我同时也说过这是一个薄利的行业，能存活下来的公司寥寥无几。去年EJA的利润率确实微薄，部分原因是我们正在大力拓展欧洲业务所需的巨额投入。",[14,1781,1782],{},"不过有一点，不论成本多高，EJA在安全方面的投入绝对不会打折扣。在任何情况下我们都会坚持这个方针，当然这里面也掺杂了一些私心：我本人、太太、孩子们、姐妹们、94岁的姨妈、除一人之外的所有董事，以及至少9位伯克希尔的经理人都是NetJets的常客。有这么一批”货物”在机上，我为Rich坚持超乎寻常的高强度飞行员训练（平均每年23天）鼓掌叫好。此外，我们的飞行员每年飞行约800小时来磨炼技术。最后，每位飞行员只飞一种机型，这意味着我们的机组人员不必在不同驾驶舱布局和飞行特性的飞机之间来回切换。",[14,1784,1785],{},"尽管EJA的业务仍受到新飞机供应量的制约，2001年我们的客户仍将接收50多架新飞机，占全球公务机产量的7%。我们有信心在飞机共享所有权领域保持全球领先地位——无论是飞机数量、服务质量还是安全标准。",[593,1787],{},[14,1789,1790],{},"有关我们各项业务的更多信息，请参阅第42-58页，其中也包含按GAAP标准报告的分部收益。此外，在第67-73页，我们按非GAAP口径将伯克希尔的财务数据重新编排为四个板块，这种呈现方式与查理和我看待公司的思路一致。",[18,1792,1793],{"id":1793},"透视收益",[14,1795,1796],{},"报告收益并不能充分反映伯克希尔的经济进步，部分原因是上表中列示的数字只包含我们从被投资公司收到的股利——而这些股利通常只代表我们按持股比例应占收益的一小部分。为了描绘出比报告收益更接近伯克希尔经济现实的画面，我们采用了”透视收益“的概念。我们计算透视收益的方法是：(1) 前文第15页报告的经营收益；加上 (2) 我们在主要被投资公司保留经营收益中按比例应占的份额——这部分根据GAAP会计准则不反映在我们的利润中；减去 (3) 如果这些被投资公司的保留收益分配给我们时，伯克希尔需要缴纳的估计税额。在计算”经营收益”时，我们剔除了购买法会计调整、资本利得及其它重大非经常性项目。",[14,1798,1799],{},"下表列出了我们2000年的透视收益，不过我必须提醒各位，这些数字只能算是大致的估计，因为其中涉及许多主观判断。（这些被投资公司支付给我们的股利已经包含在前文第15页的经营收益中，主要列在”保险集团：保险投资净收益”项下。）",[22,1801,1802,1815],{},[25,1803,1804],{},[28,1805,1806,1809,1812],{},[31,1807,1808],{},"伯克希尔主要投资公司",[31,1810,1811],{},"伯克希尔年末大致持股比例 (1)",[31,1813,1814],{},"伯克希尔应占未分配经营收益（百万美元）(2)",[44,1816,1817,1828,1839,1850,1861,1872,1883,1894,1904,1914,1924],{},[28,1818,1819,1822,1825],{},[49,1820,1821],{},"美国运通",[49,1823,1824],{},"11.4%",[49,1826,1827],{},"$ 265",[28,1829,1830,1833,1836],{},[49,1831,1832],{},"可口可乐",[49,1834,1835],{},"8.1%",[49,1837,1838],{},"160",[28,1840,1841,1844,1847],{},[49,1842,1843],{},"房地美",[49,1845,1846],{},"0.3%",[49,1848,1849],{},"106",[28,1851,1852,1855,1858],{},[49,1853,1854],{},"吉列",[49,1856,1857],{},"9.1%",[49,1859,1860],{},"51",[28,1862,1863,1866,1869],{},[49,1864,1865],{},"M&T银行 (M&T Bank)",[49,1867,1868],{},"7.2%",[49,1870,1871],{},"23",[28,1873,1874,1877,1880],{},[49,1875,1876],{},"华盛顿邮报",[49,1878,1879],{},"18.3%",[49,1881,1882],{},"18",[28,1884,1885,1888,1891],{},[49,1886,1887],{},"富国银行",[49,1889,1890],{},"3.2%",[49,1892,1893],{},"117",[28,1895,1896,1899,1901],{},[49,1897,1898],{},"伯克希尔应占主要被投资公司未分配收益合计",[49,1900],{},[49,1902,1903],{},"740",[28,1905,1906,1909,1911],{},[49,1907,1908],{},"上述未分配收益的假设税额 (3)",[49,1910],{},[49,1912,1913],{},"(104)",[28,1915,1916,1919,1921],{},[49,1917,1918],{},"伯克希尔报告经营收益",[49,1920],{},[49,1922,1923],{},"1,779",[28,1925,1926,1929,1931],{},[49,1927,1928],{},"伯克希尔透视收益合计",[49,1930],{},[49,1932,1933],{},"$ 2,415",[1120,1935,1936,1939,1942],{},[574,1937,1938],{},"不包括可分配给少数股东权益的股份。",[574,1940,1941],{},"按全年平均持股比例计算。",[574,1943,1944],{},"适用税率为14%，这是伯克希尔收到大部分股利时的税率。",[18,1946,1947],{"id":1947},"详实客观的财务报告",[14,1949,1950],{},"在伯克希尔，详实的报告意味着——如果我们的位置互换的话——我们希望你们能提供给我们的那些信息。在那种情况下，查理和我想要的是当前经营的所有重要事实，以及CEO对公司长期经济特征的坦率看法。我们既期望大量的财务细节，也期望对理解这些数据所需的任何重要信息的讨论。",[14,1952,1953],{},"当查理和我阅读公司报告时，我们对人员、工厂或产品的照片毫无兴趣。一看到EBITDA这个词我们就浑身发抖——难道管理层真的以为牙仙子会来替他们支付资本支出吗？我们对模糊不清的会计方法深表怀疑，因为这往往意味着管理层想要隐瞒什么。我们也不想阅读公关部门或咨询顾问炮制出来的文字。我们期望公司的CEO用自己的话来解释到底发生了什么。",[14,1955,1956],{},"对我们来说，公平的报告意味着让我们30万”合伙人”同时——或者尽可能接近同时——获得信息。因此，我们把年度和季度财务报告在周五收盘后到次日早上之间发布在互联网上。这样，股东和其他感兴趣的投资者可以及时获取这些重要信息，并且有合理的时间在周一开盘前消化其中的内容。今年我们的季报将分别在5月12日、8月11日和11月10日（均为周六）发布。2001年年报将于3月9日公布。",[14,1958,1959],{},"我们对证监会 (SEC) 前主席小亚瑟·莱维特 (Arthur Levitt, Jr.) 近年来打击”选择性披露”这一企业恶习的工作表示赞赏——这种做法近年来已经像癌症一样蔓延开来。事实上，大型企业”引导”分析师或大股东的收益预期——使之恰好符合公司实际预期或略低一点——几乎已经成了标准操作。通过选择性地散播暗示、眼色和点头，那些投机导向的机构和投资顾问获得了比以投资为导向的普通投资者更大的信息优势。这是一种堕落的行为，可悲的是，华尔街和美国企业界都对此趋之若鹜。",[14,1961,1962],{},"多亏了莱维特主席不知疲倦且卓有成效地为投资者所做的努力，企业现在被要求平等对待所有股东。这项改革是在强制而非良知的驱动下实现的，这一事实应该让那些CEO和他们的投资者关系部门感到羞耻。",[14,1964,1965],{},"既然已经站上了肥皂箱，我再多说一句：查理和我认为，CEO预测自己公司的增长率既具欺骗性又很危险。当然，分析师和公司自己的投资者关系部门经常怂恿他们这样做。但CEO们应该顶住这种压力，因为这种预测太容易惹麻烦了。",[14,1967,1968],{},"CEO心里有一个内部目标没什么问题。在我们看来，CEO公开表达一些对未来的希望也没什么不妥，只要这些期望附带合理的限定条件。但一家大公司公开预测其每股收益将以比如说15%的年均速度长期增长，那就是在自找麻烦。",[14,1970,1971],{},"原因在于，只有极少数大企业能维持这样的增长率。我们来做个测试：查查1970年或1980年盈利最高的200家公司的记录，看看其中有多少家自那以后实现了15%的年均每股收益增长。你会发现屈指可数。我愿意押一大笔钱打赌：2000年盈利最高的200家公司中，未来20年能实现15%年均每股收益增长的不会超过10家。",[14,1973,1974],{},"高调的预测带来的问题不仅是散播了没有根据的乐观情绪，更麻烦的是它会腐蚀CEO的行为。多年来，查理和我目睹了无数CEO为了达到自己公开宣布的收益目标而采取不经济的运营手段。更糟糕的是，当运营上的各种花招都用尽之后，他们有时会玩起花样百出的会计游戏来”凑数字”。这些会计把戏有一种雪球效应：一旦公司把收益从一个时期挪到另一个时期，此后出现的运营缺口就迫使它进行更加”英勇”的会计操纵。到头来，小打小闹就变成了真正的欺诈。（有人指出过，用笔尖偷的钱比用枪口抢的钱要多得多。）",[14,1976,1977],{},"查理和我对那些靠华丽的增长预测来讨好投资者的CEO所领导的公司，通常持警惕态度。其中少数人也许确实能说到做到——但更多的人最终只是天性乐观派，甚至是江湖骗子。可惜的是，投资者很难事先分辨出他们面对的到底是哪一种人。",[593,1979],{},[14,1981,1982],{},"过去我就一再提醒各位，千万不要轻信外面有关伯克希尔的任何传言——哪怕这些消息出自最权威的新闻机构。事实上，错误的报道在出自备受尊敬的媒体人士时尤其危险，原因很简单，大多数读者和观众知道这些媒体平时是可信的，因此理所当然地相信它们所说的一切。",[14,1984,1985,1986,1989],{},"一个典型的例子是《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal) 12月29日那期关于伯克希尔活动的一则严重失实报道。这是一份我读了一辈子都觉得很有用的好报纸。然而当天的头版（而且是折叠线以上的位置），《华尔街日报》刊登了一则简讯，以毫不含糊的语气声称我们正在买入Conseco和Finova的债券。这条消息引导读者到”货币与投资”版的头条报道。在那篇文章的第二段，《华尔街日报》",[628,1987,1988],{},"再次毫无保留地","报道伯克希尔正在买入Conseco和Finova的债券，并补充说伯克希尔在每家公司都投入了”数亿美元”。只是到了文章的第18段（这时文章已经翻到了内页），报纸才稍有保留地提到，关于我们买入Conseco的消息来自”知情人士”。",[14,1991,1992,1993,1996,1997,2000],{},"嗯，没有",[628,1994,1995],{},"那么","知情。没错，我们确实买了Finova的债券和银行债权——但报道中的金额严重失实。至于Conseco，伯克希尔和我本人",[628,1998,1999],{},"从未","买过它的一股股票或一分钱债券。",[14,2002,2003],{},"通常负责报道伯克希尔的是《华尔街日报》驻芝加哥的一位记者，此人既准确又尽责。但这一次，这条”独家新闻”却出自该报一位纽约记者之手。29号那天他可够忙的：到当天下午早些时候，他又在CNBC上重复了这则报道。紧接着，其他受人尊敬的新闻机构一窝蜂地跟进，仅凭《华尔街日报》的这则报道就转述了同样的”事实”。结果：Conseco的股票当天大幅上涨，成交量之大使其跻身纽交所成交最活跃的前十名。",[14,2005,2006],{},"在这则消息的所有报道和转述中，我从未听到或看到”谣言”这个词。显然，记者和编辑们——他们通常以用词审慎而自豪——就是没法把这个词用在自己的报道里。但还有什么描述更准确呢？当然不是常见的”消息人士透露”或”据报道”。",[14,2008,2009],{},"不过，如果开一个叫”今日谣言”的专栏，恐怕与这些自视清高的新闻机构的自我形象不太相符。这些媒体人会觉得刊登这种公认的无稽之谈，就好比《罗马观察报》 (L’Osservatore Romano)——这份报纸专门追踪教宗与教廷的消息——开了一个八卦专栏一样。但不管它们用什么婉辞来掩饰，这些机构刊登和传播的往往就是谣言。最起码，读者们有权看到诚实的措辞——就像保护吸烟者身体健康的警告标语一样，为保护投资者的财务健康提供一个警示标签。",[14,2011,2012],{},"宪法第一修正案允许媒体刊登或发表几乎任何东西。但新闻学的第一原则应该要求媒体在决定刊登什么内容时必须小心谨慎。",[18,2014,2015],{"id":2015},"其它事项",[14,2017,2018],{},"在去年的报告中，我们讨论了当时正在激烈争论的在企业合并会计处理中使用”权益合并法”的问题。在我们看来，双方的论点各有其合理之处，但也各有严重的缺陷。我们欣然看到，美国财务会计准则委员会 (FASB) 此后采纳了一种替代方案，我们认为这种方案非常合理。",[14,2020,2021],{},"如果这一拟议规则最终定稿，我们今后将不再需要每年计提大额无形资产摊销费用。因此，我们的报告收益将更接近经济现实。（详见第65页。）这些变化不会对伯克希尔的内在价值产生任何影响。不过身为董事长，我个人倒是从中受益了：以后写这些信时少了一项需要解释的东西。",[593,2023],{},[14,2025,2026],{},"随信附上了一篇报道——由《杰出投资者文摘》(Outstanding Investor Digest) 慷慨提供——记录了查理在去年5月韦斯科 (Wesco) 年会上的讲话。在商业经济和投资问题上，查理的思考比我认识的任何人都更深刻，多年来我从他身上学到了很多。读读他的评论，一定有助于你更好地理解伯克希尔。",[593,2028],{},[14,2030,2031],{},"1985年我们买下斯科特费泽 (Scott Fetzer)，得到的不仅是一家出色的企业，还有拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey) 的出色服务——他是一位真正杰出的CEO。Ralph当时61岁。大多数公司看重的是年龄而非能力，因此只能享受Ralph的才华几年。",[14,2033,2034],{},"在伯克希尔则截然不同。Ralph又经营了斯科特费泽15年，直到2000年底退休。在他的领导下，相对于我们2.3亿美元的净购买价格，该公司总共为伯克希尔贡献了10.3亿美元。我们再用这些资金去收购其它企业。总的算下来，Ralph对伯克希尔现有价值的贡献远远超过数十亿美元。",[14,2036,2037],{},"作为一位管理者，Ralph完全配得上进入伯克希尔的名人堂。查理和我欢迎他的加入。",[593,2039],{},[14,2041,2042,2043,2046],{},"怀旧一下：整整50年前，我走进了本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 在哥伦比亚大学的课堂。在此之前的十年里，我一直享受着——不，应该说是",[628,2044,2045],{},"热爱着","——分析、买入和卖出股票。但我的业绩只是平平而已。",[14,2048,2049],{},"从1951年起，我的投资业绩开始改善。不，我既没有改变饮食习惯，也没有开始锻炼身体。唯一增加的新配方就是格雷厄姆的投资理念。说白了，在大师门下求学的几个小时，远比我此前十年所谓的独立思考有价值得多。",[14,2051,2052],{},"格雷厄姆不仅是一位伟大的老师，更是一位了不起的朋友。我欠他的恩情无以估量。",[18,2054,2055],{"id":2055},"股东指定捐赠计划",[14,2057,2058],{},"大约97%的合格股份参与了伯克希尔2000年的股东指定捐赠计划，捐赠总额为1,690万美元。有关计划的详细说明见第74-75页。",[14,2060,2061],{},"过去20年里，伯克希尔根据股东的意愿累计捐赠了1.64亿美元。伯克希尔的其余捐赠活动由旗下子公司进行，它们沿袭了被收购前的慈善模式（但前任企业主个人的慈善活动由他们自行负责）。2000年，我们的子公司合计捐赠了1,830万美元，其中包括价值300万美元的实物捐赠。",[14,2063,2064],{},[628,2065,2066],{},"要参加未来的捐赠计划，你必须持有登记在实际持有人名下（而非券商、银行或托管机构代持名下）的A股股票。截至2001年8月31日仍未按此方式登记的股份将无法参加2001年的计划。当你收到我们的捐赠表格时，请尽快填写寄回，以免搁在一旁忘了。逾期收到的指定捐赠恕不受理。",[18,2068,2069],{"id":2069},"年度股东大会",[14,2071,2072],{},"去年我们把股东年会搬到了市政礼堂，效果非常好。今年4月28日周六我们将在同一地点再次聚会。大门早上7点开放，短片8点半开始播放，正式会议9点半开始。中午短暂休息用餐——礼堂的小卖部有三明治供应。除了这段间歇时间，查理和我将一直回答各位的问题，直到下午3点半。",[14,2074,2075],{},"未来几年内，市政礼堂是我们唯一的选择。因此我们必须在周六或周日开会，以避免工作日带来的交通和停车噩梦。不过，奥马哈很快就会建成一座拥有充足停车位的新会议中心。届时如果可以使用，我会征询各位股东是否希望恢复周一开会。投票将按照股东人数（而非持股比例）的多数决定。",[14,2077,2078],{},"随本报告附上的委托书材料中有一份附件，说明了如何获取今年年会及其它活动所需的入场凭证。至于机票、酒店和租车预订，我们再次委托美国运通 (American Express)（电话800-799-6634）为各位提供特别协助。照例，我们将安排班车从各大酒店接送大家往返会场。会后，班车还将开往内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)、波仙珠宝 (Borsheim’s) 和机场。不过，有一辆自己的车可能还是方便些。",[14,2080,2081,2082,2085],{},"今年加入伯克希尔大家庭的新公司太多了，我就不一一列举年会上将",[628,2083,2084],{},"出售","的所有产品了。不过请做好准备，从砖块到糖果，什么都有得买。但有一件新产品值得特别推荐：Bob Shaw设计了一块3x5英尺的地毯，上面印着一幅惟妙惟肖的查理肖像。很显然，如果销售不佳迫使我们降价清仓的话，对查理来说岂止是没面子——简直是奇耻大辱。所以请各位踊跃购买，尽一份力。",[14,2087,2088],{},"盖可保险将在会场设置展位，由来自全国各地的多位顶尖顾问坐镇，随时为各位提供汽车保险报价。在大多数情况下，盖可保险可以为您提供特别的股东折扣（通常为8%）。请带上您现有的保险资料，看看我们能不能帮您省点钱。",[14,2090,2091],{},"周六在奥马哈机场，照例会有公务机航空公司的一系列飞机供各位参观。在市政礼堂找EJA的代表就能安排看飞机的事宜。如果您在周末买了我们觉得足够多的东西，您很可能需要一架自己的飞机把它们运回家。",[14,2093,2094],{},"位于第72街、道奇街与太平洋街之间占地75英亩的内布拉斯加家具店，将再次推出”伯克希尔周末”特惠价——这意味着我们向各位股东提供通常只有员工才能享受的折扣。四年前我们在NFM首次推出这项促销活动，“周末”期间的销售额从1997年的530万美元增长到2000年的910万美元。",[14,2096,2097],{},"要享受折扣，您必须在4月25日周三至4月30日周一期间购买，并出示您的年会入场凭证。这段时间的特惠价甚至适用于几家通常对打折有铁律般规定的高端品牌——它们本着股东周末的精神，特别为各位破了例。我们对它们的配合深表感谢。NFM的营业时间为工作日上午10点至晚上9点，周六和周日上午10点至下午6点。",[14,2099,2100],{},"波仙珠宝——全美除纽约蒂芙尼 (Tiffany) 曼哈顿旗舰店外最大的珠宝店——将举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是4月27日周五下午6点至晚上10点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场也是主活动，在4月29日周日上午9点至下午5点举行。从周四到周一，都可以享受股东特惠价，所以如果您想避开周五晚上和周日的大批人群，可以在其它时间光顾，只要表明股东身份即可。周六营业至下午6点。波仙的经营毛利率比主要竞争对手低了整整20个百分点，所以买得越多省得越多（至少我的家人一直是这么跟我说的）。",[14,2102,2103],{},"周日在波仙珠宝店外的大厅里，我们将安排本地桥牌高手与各位股东切磋。往年都到场的鲍勃·哈曼 (Bob Hamman) 今年要去非洲，不过他已经承诺2002年一定再来。两度美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫 (Patrick Wolff) 也将坐镇大厅，蒙眼迎战所有挑战者！去年Patrick同时与六位对手蒙眼对弈——眼罩系得严严实实——并将对手们打得落花流水。",[14,2105,2106],{},"如果这些还不够考验您的技艺，今年的波仙奥林匹亚棋艺大赛还将请来比尔·罗伯蒂 (Bill Robertie)，他是史上仅有的两位两次夺得西洋双陆棋世界冠军的选手之一。双陆棋可是一种大赌注的游戏，所以记得把您的股票证书也带来。",[14,2108,2109,2110,2113],{},"我最爱的葛拉特牛排馆 (Gorat’s) 将于4月29日周日再次专门为伯克希尔股东开门，营业时间为下午4点至晚上10点。请记住，周日去Gorat’s必须事先订位。要预约请在4月2日（",[628,2111,2112],{},"不要更早","）拨打402-551-3733。如果周日订满了，可以试试您在奥马哈的其它晚上。如果您点了一份三分熟丁骨牛排配双份薯饼，那您的美食家身份就坐实了。",[14,2115,2116,2117,2120],{},"照例，周六晚上7点将在罗森布拉特体育场 (Rosenblatt Stadium) 举行棒球赛。今年奥马哈金钉鞋队 (Omaha Golden Spikes) 将对阵新奥尔良微风队 (New Orleans Zephyrs)。厄尼·班克斯 (Ernie Banks) 将再次勇敢地站上打击区面对我的快速球（据测速最高达到每",[628,2118,2119],{},"月","95英里）。",[14,2122,2123],{},"去年我的表现不算最佳：投了五个球才勉强投出一记好球。相信我，当你站在投手丘上却找不到本垒板时，那种感觉有多孤独。最后我总算投了一个过去，Ernie一记平飞球打到了左外野。在我被换下场后，在场的众多体育记者问我给Ernie投的什么球。我引用沃伦·斯潘 (Warren Spahn) 在威利·梅斯 (Willie Mays) 把他的球打出全垒打时说的话（那是Willie在大联盟的第一发全垒打）：“那球在飞出去的前六十英尺可是一记绝妙的好球。”",[14,2125,2126],{},"今年会是另一番景象。我不想提前泄露我的秘密武器，所以只能说Ernie这次将面对一种他从未见过的球路。",[14,2128,2129],{},"我们的委托书声明中包含了如何获取球赛门票的说明，以及大量帮助您享受奥马哈之行的其它信息。城里将会有丰富多彩的活动。来参加我们的伍德斯托克周末吧，一起在市政礼堂共庆资本家的嘉年华！",[14,2131,2132],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,2134,2135],{},"董事会主席",[14,2137,2138],{},"2001年2月28日",{"title":2140,"searchDepth":2141,"depth":2141,"links":2142},"",2,[2143,2145,2146,2147,2148,2149,2150,2151,2152,2153,2154],{"id":20,"depth":2144,"text":20},3,{"id":659,"depth":2144,"text":660},{"id":792,"depth":2144,"text":792},{"id":1018,"depth":2144,"text":1019},{"id":1191,"depth":2144,"text":1191},{"id":1408,"depth":2144,"text":1408},{"id":1793,"depth":2144,"text":1793},{"id":1947,"depth":2144,"text":1947},{"id":2015,"depth":2144,"text":2015},{"id":2055,"depth":2144,"text":2055},{"id":2069,"depth":2144,"text":2069},"致股东信",null,"2000年巴菲特致股东信，讨论网络股泡沫、股票回购策略及伯克希尔内在价值评估","md",{},true,71,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":2157},"2000 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巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":2548,"slug":2549,"category":2178,"order":2546},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2551,"slug":2552,"category":2173,"order":2553},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":2555,"slug":2556,"category":2178,"order":2553},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":2558,"slug":2559,"category":2155,"order":2560},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":2562,"slug":2563,"category":2178,"order":2560},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":2565,"slug":2566,"category":2155,"order":2567},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2569,"slug":2570,"category":2178,"order":2567},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2572,"slug":2573,"category":2155,"order":2574},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2576,"slug":2577,"category":2178,"order":2574},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2579,"slug":2580,"category":2155,"order":2581},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2583,"slug":2584,"category":2178,"order":2581},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2586,"slug":2587,"category":2155,"order":2588},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2590,"slug":2591,"category":2178,"order":2588},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2593,"slug":2594,"category":2155,"order":2595},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2597,"slug":2598,"category":2178,"order":2595},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2600,"slug":2601,"category":2155,"order":2602},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2604,"slug":2605,"category":2178,"order":2602},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2607,"slug":2608,"category":2155,"order":2609},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2611,"slug":2612,"category":2178,"order":2609},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2614,"slug":2615,"category":2155,"order":2616},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2618,"slug":2619,"category":2178,"order":2616},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2621,"slug":2622,"category":2155,"order":2623},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2625,"slug":2626,"category":2178,"order":2623},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2628,"slug":2629,"category":2155,"order":2630},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2632,"slug":2633,"category":2178,"order":2630},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2635,"slug":2636,"category":2155,"order":2637},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2639,"slug":2640,"category":2178,"order":2637},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2642,"slug":2643,"category":2155,"order":2644},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2646,"slug":2647,"category":2178,"order":2644},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2649,"slug":2650,"category":2155,"order":2651},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2653,"slug":2654,"category":2178,"order":2651},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2656,"slug":2657,"category":2155,"order":2658},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2660,"slug":2661,"category":2178,"order":2658},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2663,"slug":2664,"category":2155,"order":2665},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2667,"slug":2668,"category":2178,"order":2665},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2670,"slug":2671,"category":2155,"order":2672},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2674,"slug":2675,"category":2178,"order":2672},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2677,"slug":2678,"category":2155,"order":2679},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2681,"slug":2682,"category":2178,"order":2679},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2684,"slug":2685,"category":2155,"order":2686},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2688,"slug":2689,"category":2178,"order":2686},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2691,"slug":2692,"category":2155,"order":2693},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2695,"slug":2696,"category":2178,"order":2693},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2698,"slug":2699,"category":2155,"order":2700},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2702,"slug":2703,"category":2178,"order":2700},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2705,"slug":2706,"category":2155,"order":2707},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2709,"slug":2710,"category":2178,"order":2707},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2712,"slug":2713,"category":2155,"order":2714},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2716,"slug":2717,"category":2178,"order":2714},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2719,"slug":2720,"category":2155,"order":2721},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2723,"slug":2724,"category":2178,"order":2721},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2726,"slug":2727,"category":2155,"order":2728},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2730,"slug":2731,"category":2178,"order":2728},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2733,"slug":2734,"category":2155,"order":2735},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2737,"slug":2738,"category":2178,"order":2735},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2740,"slug":2741,"category":2155,"order":2742},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2744,"slug":2745,"category":2178,"order":2742},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2747,"slug":2748,"category":2155,"order":2749},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2751,"slug":2752,"category":2178,"order":2749},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2754,"slug":2755,"category":2155,"order":2756},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2758,"slug":2759,"category":2178,"order":2756},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":5,"slug":2165,"category":2155,"order":2161},{"title":2762,"slug":2763,"category":2178,"order":2161},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2765,"slug":2766,"category":2155,"order":2767},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2769,"slug":2770,"category":2178,"order":2767},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2772,"slug":2773,"category":2155,"order":2774},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2776,"slug":2777,"category":2178,"order":2774},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2779,"slug":2780,"category":2155,"order":2781},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2783,"slug":2784,"category":2178,"order":2781},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2786,"slug":2787,"category":2155,"order":2788},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2790,"slug":2791,"category":2178,"order":2788},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2793,"slug":2794,"category":2155,"order":2795},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2797,"slug":2798,"category":2178,"order":2795},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2800,"slug":2801,"category":2155,"order":2802},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2804,"slug":2805,"category":2178,"order":2802},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2807,"slug":2808,"category":2155,"order":2809},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2811,"slug":2812,"category":2178,"order":2809},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2814,"slug":2815,"category":2155,"order":2816},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2818,"slug":2819,"category":2178,"order":2816},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2821,"slug":2822,"category":2155,"order":2823},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2825,"slug":2826,"category":2178,"order":2823},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2828,"slug":2829,"category":2155,"order":2830},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2832,"slug":2833,"category":2178,"order":2830},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2835,"slug":2836,"category":2155,"order":2837},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2839,"slug":2840,"category":2178,"order":2837},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2842,"slug":2843,"category":2155,"order":2844},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2846,"slug":2847,"category":2178,"order":2844},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2849,"slug":2850,"category":2155,"order":2851},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2853,"slug":2854,"category":2178,"order":2851},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2856,"slug":2857,"category":2155,"order":2858},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2860,"slug":2861,"category":2178,"order":2858},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2863,"slug":2864,"category":2155,"order":2865},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2867,"slug":2868,"category":2178,"order":2865},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2870,"slug":2871,"category":2155,"order":2872},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2874,"slug":2875,"category":2178,"order":2872},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2877,"slug":2878,"category":2155,"order":2879},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2881,"slug":2882,"category":2178,"order":2879},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2884,"slug":2885,"category":2155,"order":2886},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2888,"slug":2889,"category":2178,"order":2886},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2891,"slug":2892,"category":2155,"order":2893},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2895,"slug":2896,"category":2178,"order":2893},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":2898,"slug":2899,"category":2155,"order":2900},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":2902,"slug":2903,"category":2178,"order":2900},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":2905,"slug":2906,"category":2155,"order":2907},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":2909,"slug":2910,"category":2178,"order":2907},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2912,"slug":2913,"category":2155,"order":2914},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":2916,"slug":2917,"category":2178,"order":2914},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":2919,"slug":2920,"category":2155,"order":2921},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":2923,"slug":2924,"category":2178,"order":2921},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2926,"slug":2927,"category":2155,"order":2928},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":2930,"slug":2931,"category":2178,"order":2928},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":2933,"slug":2934,"category":2155,"order":2935},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":2937,"slug":2938,"category":2178,"order":2935},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":2940,"slug":2941,"category":2155,"order":2942},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":2944,"slug":2945,"category":2178,"order":2942},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2947,"slug":2948,"category":2155,"order":2949},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":2951,"slug":2952,"category":2178,"order":2949},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2954,"slug":2955,"category":2155,"order":2956},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":2958,"slug":2959,"category":2178,"order":2956},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2961,"slug":2962,"category":2155,"order":2963},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":2965,"slug":2966,"category":2178,"order":2963},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":2968,"slug":2969,"category":2178,"order":2970},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":2972,"slug":2973,"category":2178,"order":2974},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":2976,"slug":2977,"category":2178,"order":2978},"巴菲特：2013年 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