[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3549},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":2013,"library-sidebar-dao":3015,"library-sidebar-models":3317},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1999,"date":2000,"description":2001,"extension":2002,"meta":2003,"navigation":2004,"order":2005,"path":2006,"seo":2007,"seoDescription":2001,"seoTitle":2008,"slug":2009,"stem":2010,"__hash__":2011,"_collection":2012},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1991 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1983},"minimark",[9,13,20,23,26,29,37,40,43,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,481,487,490,493,496,499,502,505,508,727,740,743,746,749,752,755,766,769,772,775,777,780,787,790,793,796,799,802,805,808,811,814,817,820,823,826,880,887,890,893,896,899,902,905,908,911,913,916,936,939,942,945,948,951,954,1157,1160,1163,1166,1169,1172,1175,1589,1592,1595,1598,1601,1604,1607,1610,1613,1616,1742,1745,1748,1751,1754,1761,1764,1767,1770,1773,1776,1783,1786,1789,1894,1902,1905,1908,1911,1914,1917,1920,1923,1926,1929,1932,1935,1938,1940,1943,1945,1948,1951,1953,1956,1959,1962,1965,1968,1971,1974,1977,1980],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1991-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司 (BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.)",[14,21,22],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,24,25],{},"1991年我们的净资产增加了21亿美元，增幅为39.6%。自现任管理层接手的27年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元成长到目前的6,437美元，年复合增长率约为23.7%。",[14,27,28],{},"我们的股东权益规模如今已高达74亿美元，这使得一件事变得确定无疑：我们不可能再维持过去的增长速度了，甚至连接近都做不到。随着伯克希尔不断壮大，能够显著影响公司业绩的投资机会也在持续缩小。当我们管理的资金只有2,000万美元时，一项赚100万美元的生意就能为我们的年回报率增加5个百分点。但如今我们需要3.7亿美元的收益（也就是税前超过5.5亿美元的利润）才能达到同样的效果。而赚3.7亿美元的门路，可比赚100万美元的少太多了。",[14,30,31,32,36],{},"伯克希尔的副董事长查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 和我已经设定了一个目标：让伯克希尔的内在价值每年平均增长15%。如果我们的",[33,34,35],"em",{},"账面","价值也要跟上这15%的步伐，那么在未来十年我们必须赚到220亿美元。祝我们好运吧——我们真的会需要它。",[14,38,39],{},"1991年我们账面价值的超额增长源于一个不太可能重演的现象：可口可乐 (Coca-Cola) 和吉列 (Gillette) 两家公司的市盈率大幅飙升。光是这两只股票就贡献了我们去年21亿美元净资产增长中的将近16亿。三年前我们大举买入可口可乐时，伯克希尔的净资产大约是34亿美元；而现在光是我们持有的可口可乐股票市值就超过了那个数字。",[14,41,42],{},"可口可乐和吉列堪称当今世界上最好的两家公司，我们预期在未来几年它们的盈利还会以强劲的速度增长。随着时间推移，我们持股的价值也应当大致按比例增长。然而去年，这两家公司的估值上升速度远远超过了盈利增速。实际上我们获得了双重收益：一方面来自优秀的盈利增长，另一方面——甚至更大的一部分——来自市场对这两只股票的价值重估。我们认为这种重估是合理的。但这不可能年年发生：未来我们只能靠单一收益来满足了。",[44,45,46],"h3",{"id":46},"第二份工作",[14,48,49],{},"1989年，我这个每天开开心心喝五罐樱桃可口可乐的消费者，宣布我们买了价值10亿美元的可口可乐股票。我把这描述为”用真金白银印证我的嘴巴说过的话”(putting our money where my mouth was) 的一个相当极端的例子。去年8月18日，当我被选为所罗门公司 (Salomon Inc) 的临时董事长时，情况反了过来：我是在”用嘴巴去维护我们投出去的真金白银”(put my mouth where our money was)。",[14,51,52],{},"大家应该都看过有关我被任命的相关报道了。我之所以愿意接受这个职位，其中隐含着一个重要的信息：伯克希尔旗下事业的经理人是如此出色，以至于我完全可以大幅减少花在公司上的时间，同时仍然对公司的经济前进步伐毫不担心。布鲁姆金家族 (the Blumkins)、弗里德曼家族 (the Friedman family)、迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg)、赫尔德曼家族 (the Heldmans)、查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins)、斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey)、拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey) 和弗兰克·鲁尼 (Frank Rooney)（我们最新收购的布朗鞋业 H.H. Brown 的CEO，后面会详细介绍），他们都是各自领域的顶尖高手，根本不需要我的帮忙。我的工作只是公平合理地对待他们，并配置他们所创造的资金。这两项职能都不会因为我在所罗门的工作而受到影响。",[14,54,55],{},"查理跟我在这些成功企业所扮演的角色，可以用迈阿密大学著名的四分卫乔治·米拉 (George Mira) 和他的教练安迪·古斯塔夫森 (Andy Gustafson) 的故事来说明。在与佛罗里达大学的一场比赛中，米拉在球门线附近接球后准备传球。他发现了一个无人盯防的队友，但他的右肩却被一名佛罗里达防守球员死死抓住怎么也甩不掉。右撇子米拉于是把球换到左手，丢出了他一辈子唯一一次左手传球——达阵得分。当全场观众疯狂沸腾时，古斯塔夫森镇定地转向一位记者说：“看吧，这就是我平时训练有素的成果。”",[14,57,58],{},"有了我们旗下如此梦幻的明星经营团队，即使查理或我偶尔溜号，伯克希尔的表现也不会受到任何影响。不过大家要注意，我在所罗门头衔里的那个”临时”二字。伯克希尔才是我的最爱，而且是至死不渝的爱：去年在哈佛商学院，有学生问我打算什么时候退休，我回答说：“大概在我死后五到十年吧。”",[44,60,61],{"id":61},"报告收益的来源",[14,63,64],{},"下表列示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在这种呈报方式中，商誉摊销及其它重大的购买法会计调整不计入各个具体业务，而是汇总后单独列示。这样的处理方式让大家可以看到，如果我们没有买下这些企业的话，它们的收益原本会是什么样子。我在过去的报告中解释过，为什么我们认为这种呈报方式对投资者和管理者来说比通用会计准则 (GAAP) 所要求的逐项调整更有用。当然，我们在表中列出的净收益合计数与经审计财务报表中的通用会计准则总数完全一致。",[14,66,67],{},"年报中还有各业务部门依照通用会计准则编制的详细信息。不过从今年开始，我们将不再像过去那样逐一详述非保险业务的营运状况。我们旗下事业的数量日益增多——以后还会继续增长——所以现在比较合理的做法是轮流报道，每年挑一两个详细介绍。",[69,70,71,90],"table",{},[72,73,74],"thead",{},[75,76,77,80,83,85,88],"tr",{},[78,79],"th",{},[78,81,82],{},"税前收益",[78,84,82],{},[78,86,87],{},"伯克希尔应占净收益（税后及少数股东权益后）",[78,89,87],{},[91,92,93,109,122,135,152,169,185,202,219,236,253,270,287,304,321,338,355,372,389,406,418,435,452,464],"tbody",{},[75,94,95,99,102,105,107],{},[96,97,98],"td",{},"（千美元）",[96,100,101],{},"1991",[96,103,104],{},"1990",[96,106,101],{},[96,108,104],{},[75,110,111,114,116,118,120],{},[96,112,113],{},"经营收益：",[96,115],{},[96,117],{},[96,119],{},[96,121],{},[75,123,124,127,129,131,133],{},[96,125,126],{},"保险业务：",[96,128],{},[96,130],{},[96,132],{},[96,134],{},[75,136,137,140,143,146,149],{},[96,138,139],{},"承保",[96,141,142],{},"$ (119,593)",[96,144,145],{},"$ (26,647)",[96,147,148],{},"$ (77,229)",[96,150,151],{},"$ (14,936)",[75,153,154,157,160,163,166],{},[96,155,156],{},"净投资收益",[96,158,159],{},"331,846",[96,161,162],{},"327,047",[96,164,165],{},"285,173",[96,167,168],{},"282,613",[75,170,171,174,177,180,183],{},[96,172,173],{},"布朗鞋业（1991\u002F7\u002F1收购）",[96,175,176],{},"13,616",[96,178,179],{},"—",[96,181,182],{},"8,611",[96,184,179],{},[75,186,187,190,193,196,199],{},[96,188,189],{},"布法罗新闻报",[96,191,192],{},"37,113",[96,194,195],{},"43,954",[96,197,198],{},"21,841",[96,200,201],{},"25,981",[75,203,204,207,210,213,216],{},[96,205,206],{},"菲希海默",[96,208,209],{},"12,947",[96,211,212],{},"12,450",[96,214,215],{},"6,843",[96,217,218],{},"6,605",[75,220,221,224,227,230,233],{},[96,222,223],{},"柯比",[96,225,226],{},"35,726",[96,228,229],{},"27,445",[96,231,232],{},"22,555",[96,234,235],{},"17,613",[75,237,238,241,244,247,250],{},[96,239,240],{},"内布拉斯加家具店",[96,242,243],{},"14,384",[96,245,246],{},"17,248",[96,248,249],{},"6,993",[96,251,252],{},"8,485",[75,254,255,258,261,264,267],{},[96,256,257],{},"斯科特费泽制造集团",[96,259,260],{},"26,123",[96,262,263],{},"30,378",[96,265,266],{},"15,901",[96,268,269],{},"18,458",[75,271,272,275,278,281,284],{},[96,273,274],{},"喜诗糖果",[96,276,277],{},"42,390",[96,279,280],{},"39,580",[96,282,283],{},"25,575",[96,285,286],{},"23,892",[75,288,289,292,295,298,301],{},[96,290,291],{},"韦斯科——保险以外",[96,293,294],{},"12,230",[96,296,297],{},"12,441",[96,299,300],{},"8,777",[96,302,303],{},"9,676",[75,305,306,309,312,315,318],{},[96,307,308],{},"世界图书百科全书",[96,310,311],{},"22,483",[96,313,314],{},"31,896",[96,316,317],{},"15,487",[96,319,320],{},"20,420",[75,322,323,326,329,332,335],{},[96,324,325],{},"商誉摊销",[96,327,328],{},"(4,113)",[96,330,331],{},"(3,476)",[96,333,334],{},"(4,098)",[96,336,337],{},"(3,461)",[75,339,340,343,346,349,352],{},[96,341,342],{},"其它购买法会计调整",[96,344,345],{},"(6,021)",[96,347,348],{},"(5,951)",[96,350,351],{},"(7,019)",[96,353,354],{},"(6,856)",[75,356,357,360,363,366,369],{},[96,358,359],{},"利息费用*",[96,361,362],{},"(89,250)",[96,364,365],{},"(76,374)",[96,367,368],{},"(57,165)",[96,370,371],{},"(49,726)",[75,373,374,377,380,383,386],{},[96,375,376],{},"股东指定捐赠",[96,378,379],{},"(6,772)",[96,381,382],{},"(5,824)",[96,384,385],{},"(4,388)",[96,387,388],{},"(3,801)",[75,390,391,394,397,400,403],{},[96,392,393],{},"其它",[96,395,396],{},"77,399",[96,398,399],{},"58,310",[96,401,402],{},"47,896",[96,404,405],{},"35,782",[75,407,408,410,412,414,416],{},[96,409],{},[96,411],{},[96,413],{},[96,415],{},[96,417],{},[75,419,420,423,426,429,432],{},[96,421,422],{},"经营收益合计",[96,424,425],{},"400,508",[96,427,428],{},"482,477",[96,430,431],{},"315,753",[96,433,434],{},"370,745",[75,436,437,440,443,446,449],{},[96,438,439],{},"出售证券收益",[96,441,442],{},"192,478",[96,444,445],{},"33,989",[96,447,448],{},"124,155",[96,450,451],{},"23,348",[75,453,454,456,458,460,462],{},[96,455],{},[96,457],{},[96,459],{},[96,461],{},[96,463],{},[75,465,466,469,472,475,478],{},[96,467,468],{},"收益总计",[96,470,471],{},"$ 592,986",[96,473,474],{},"$ 516,466",[96,476,477],{},"$ 439,908",[96,479,480],{},"$ 394,093",[14,482,483,484],{},"*",[33,485,486],{},"不含斯科特费泽金融集团和互助储贷的利息费用。",[44,488,489],{"id":489},"透视收益",[14,491,492],{},"我们之前讨论过透视收益的概念，它包括：(1) 前面列示的报告收益；加上 (2) 主要被投资公司按通用会计准则未反映在我们利润中的留存经营收益；减去 (3) 如果这些被投资公司的留存收益分配给我们时，伯克希尔估计需要缴纳的所得税。",[14,494,495],{},"我曾告诉各位，如果我们的内在商业价值要以每年15%的速度增长，透视收益也必须以大约15%的速度增长。事实上，自1965年现任管理层接手以来，我们的透视收益增长率几乎恰好与账面价值23%的增长率相同。",[14,497,498],{},"然而去年我们的透视收益非但没有增长，反而下降了14%。在一定程度上，这种下滑源于我在去年报告中提到过的两个因素，当时我就警告过各位它们会对透视收益产生负面影响。",[14,500,501],{},"首先，我曾告诉各位，我们的媒体收益——不管是直接收益还是透视收益——“肯定会下降”，事实确实如此。第二个因素在4月1日发挥了作用，当时我们的吉列优先股被要求赎回，迫使我们转换成普通股。1990年来自优先股的税后收益约为4,500万美元，这个金额比1991年三个月的优先股股利加上九个月的普通股透视收益之和还略高一些。",[14,503,504],{},"另外有两个我没有预料到的情况也损害了1991年的透视收益。首先，我们在富国银行 (Wells Fargo) 的权益基本上只是维持损益两平（我们从该公司收到的股利被其负留存收益所抵消）。去年我说过，富国银行出现这种结果”可能性很低——但不是没有可能”。其次，我们的保险业务收益虽然依然不错，却明显下降了。",[14,506,507],{},"下表列出了我们计算透视收益的方式，不过我要提醒各位这些数字必然是相当粗略的。（被投资公司分配给我们的股利已包含在前面列示的经营收益中，主要归入”保险业务：净投资收益”项下。）",[69,509,510,527],{},[72,511,512],{},[75,513,514,517,520,522,525],{},[78,515,516],{},"伯克希尔主要被投资公司",[78,518,519],{},"伯克希尔年末约持股比例",[78,521,519],{},[78,523,524],{},"伯克希尔应占未分配经营收益",[78,526,524],{},[91,528,529,542,559,575,592,607,623,638,655,667,682,697,712],{},[75,530,531,534,536,538,540],{},[96,532,533],{},"（百万美元）",[96,535,101],{},[96,537,104],{},[96,539,101],{},[96,541,104],{},[75,543,544,547,550,553,556],{},[96,545,546],{},"大都会\u002FABC",[96,548,549],{},"18.1%",[96,551,552],{},"17.9%",[96,554,555],{},"$ 61",[96,557,558],{},"$ 85",[75,560,561,564,567,569,572],{},[96,562,563],{},"可口可乐",[96,565,566],{},"7.0%",[96,568,566],{},[96,570,571],{},"69",[96,573,574],{},"58",[75,576,577,580,583,586,589],{},[96,578,579],{},"联邦住房贷款抵押公司",[96,581,582],{},"3.4%(1)",[96,584,585],{},"3.2%(1)",[96,587,588],{},"15",[96,590,591],{},"10",[75,593,594,597,600,602,605],{},[96,595,596],{},"吉列",[96,598,599],{},"11.0%",[96,601,179],{},[96,603,604],{},"23(2)",[96,606,179],{},[75,608,609,612,615,618,620],{},[96,610,611],{},"盖可保险",[96,613,614],{},"48.2%",[96,616,617],{},"46.1%",[96,619,571],{},[96,621,622],{},"76",[75,624,625,628,631,633,635],{},[96,626,627],{},"华盛顿邮报",[96,629,630],{},"14.6%",[96,632,630],{},[96,634,591],{},[96,636,637],{},"18",[75,639,640,643,646,649,652],{},[96,641,642],{},"富国银行",[96,644,645],{},"9.6%",[96,647,648],{},"9.7%",[96,650,651],{},"(17)",[96,653,654],{},"19(3)",[75,656,657,659,661,663,665],{},[96,658],{},[96,660],{},[96,662],{},[96,664],{},[96,666],{},[75,668,669,672,674,676,679],{},[96,670,671],{},"伯克希尔应占主要被投资公司未分配收益",[96,673],{},[96,675],{},[96,677,678],{},"$ 230",[96,680,681],{},"$ 266",[75,683,684,687,689,691,694],{},[96,685,686],{},"上述未分配收益的假设税负",[96,688],{},[96,690],{},[96,692,693],{},"(30)",[96,695,696],{},"(35)",[75,698,699,702,704,706,709],{},[96,700,701],{},"伯克希尔报告经营收益",[96,703],{},[96,705],{},[96,707,708],{},"316",[96,710,711],{},"371",[75,713,714,717,719,721,724],{},[96,715,716],{},"伯克希尔透视收益合计",[96,718],{},[96,720],{},[96,722,723],{},"$ 516",[96,725,726],{},"$ 602",[728,729,730,734,737],"ol",{},[731,732,733],"li",{},"已扣除韦斯科的少数股东权益",[731,735,736],{},"仅含伯克希尔于4月1日将优先股转换为普通股后的九个月",[731,738,739],{},"以全年平均持股比例计算",[741,742],"hr",{},[14,744,745],{},"我们也相信投资者可以通过关注自己的透视收益来获益。要计算这个数字，他们应当确定其投资组合中所持股份对应的底层收益，然后加总起来。每个投资者的目标应该是建立一个投资组合（实际上就是一家”公司”），使其在大约十年后能够产生尽可能高的透视收益。",[14,747,748],{},"这种方法将迫使投资者思考企业的长期前景，而不是股价的短期表现——而这种视角往往能改善投资结果。当然，从长期来看，投资决策的最终计分板还是市场价格。但价格将由未来的盈利决定。投资就像打棒球一样，想要在计分板上添分，你的眼睛得盯着球场，而不是盯着计分板。",[44,750,751],{"id":751},"媒体业的变化与估值数学",[14,753,754],{},"在去年的报告中，我表达过自己的看法：媒体公司盈利能力的下降既反映了长期趋势性因素，也反映了周期性因素。1991年的事态进一步证实了这一判断：随着零售业态的转变以及广告和娱乐选择的多元化，曾经一度风光无限的媒体企业，其经济实力正在持续被侵蚀。不幸的是，在商业世界中，后视镜永远比挡风玻璃看得更清楚。几年前，和媒体业沾边的人——不管是银行家、业主还是证券分析师——没人看到这个行业即将面临的经济恶化。（不过再给我几年时间，我大概就能说服自己其实我当时就看到了。）",[14,756,757,758,761,762,765],{},"事实是，报纸、电视和杂志产业在经济特征上已经越来越像普通",[33,759,760],{},"企业","，而不是拥有",[33,763,764],{},"特许经营权","的事业。让我们快速看看这两类企业的区别特征，不过请记住，很多公司实际上介于两者之间，最恰当的描述应该是弱势的特许经营或强势的普通企业。",[14,767,768],{},"经济特许经营权产生于这样的产品或服务：(1) 它是被需要或被渴望的；(2) 顾客认为找不到近似的替代品；(3) 不受价格管制。一家公司是否同时具备以上三个条件，可以通过它能否定期主动提价并因此获得高资本回报率来加以验证。此外，特许经营权能容忍糟糕的管理。无能的管理者虽然会降低特许经营的盈利能力，但不会造成致命伤害。",[14,770,771],{},"相比之下，“普通企业”只有在它是低成本运营商或者其产品\u002F服务供不应求时，才能获得超额利润。但供给紧张通常持续不了多久。凭借卓越的管理，一家公司可以更长时间地保持低成本优势，但即便如此，仍然时刻面临竞争对手的攻击。而普通企业——不同于特许经营——是可以被糟糕的管理毁掉的。",[14,773,774],{},"直到不久之前，媒体资产还拥有特许经营的这三大特征，因此既可以大胆定价，管理上也可以比较松散。然而现在，寻找信息和娱乐（主要是后者）的消费者有了大大拓宽的选择空间。不幸的是，需求并不会因为新供给的出现而扩大：美国人一共五亿只眼睛，一天就24小时，就这么多了。结果可想而知——竞争加剧，市场碎片化，媒体业丧失了部分——虽然远非全部——的特许经营实力。",[741,776],{},[14,778,779],{},"媒体业特许经营权的弱化，对其价值的影响远远超过了对眼前收益的直接冲击。为了理解这种现象，让我们来看一些大大简化但颇为相关的估值数学。",[14,781,782,783,786],{},"几年之前，传统观点认为报纸、电视台或杂志的盈利可以永远以每年大约6%的速度增长，而且完全",[33,784,785],{},"不需要","额外的资本投入，因为折旧费用大致与资本支出相当，营运资金需求也微乎其微。因此，报告收益（扣除无形资产摊销前）基本上等于可自由分配的收益，也就是说拥有一项媒体资产相当于拥有一种以每年6%速度增长的永续年金。假设以10%的折现率来计算这一收益流的现值，可以得出为一项当前税后收益100万美元的资产支付高达2,500万美元是合理的。（25倍的税后市盈率折算约等于16倍税前市盈率。）",[14,788,789],{},"现在改变假设：这100万美元代表的是”正常盈利能力”，收益只是围绕这个水平周期性波动。这种”打摆子”模式其实是大多数企业的常态——它们的收入只有在股东愿意投入更多资本（通常以留存收益的形式）时才会增长。在改变后的假设下，同样以10%折现，100万美元的收益折算为1,000万美元的估值。就这样，看似不大的假设变动却将资产估值压低到了10倍税后收益（约6.5倍税前收益）。",[14,791,792],{},"不管钱是从媒体公司赚来的还是从钢铁厂赚来的，一块钱就是一块钱。过去买家之所以愿意对媒体的一块钱盈利给予远高于钢铁的估值，是因为大家预期媒体的收益会持续增长（而且企业不需要多少额外资本），而钢铁的收益显然属于”打摆子”那一类。然而现在，人们对媒体的预期也在向”打摆子”的模式靠拢。正如我们简化的例子所展示的，当预期发生修正时，估值必然剧烈变化。",[14,794,795],{},"我们在媒体领域有大量投资——既包括直接拥有的布法罗新闻报 (Buffalo News)，也包括我们在华盛顿邮报 (The Washington Post Company) 和大都会\u002FABC (Capital Cities\u002FABC) 的持股——而由于行业正在经历的结构性转变，这些投资的内在价值已经大幅缩水。（周期性因素也拖累了我们当前的透视收益，但周期性因素不会降低内在价值。）然而，正如我们经营伯克希尔的企业原则所揭示的，我们的一条规矩是：不会仅仅因为看到把钱用在别处更有利，就卖掉已被归类为永久持有的企业或投资。（我们之前确实卖过一些其它媒体持股，但规模相对较小。）",[14,797,798],{},"还好，我们在内在价值上遭受的损失得到了缓解，因为布法罗新闻报在斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey) 的领导下表现远好于大多数同行报纸，而大都会和华盛顿邮报也都管理得极为出色。尤其值得一提的是，在1980年代末那段媒体资产收购者动辄出天价的疯狂时期，这两家公司都按兵不动。此外，大都会和华盛顿邮报两家公司的债务都很少，基本上被手头的现金所抵消。因此，资产价值的缩水并没有因为杠杆而被放大。在上市媒体公司中，我们投资的这两家基本上是仅有的没有被债务压身的。大多数其它公司，由于激进的收购政策加上不断萎缩的盈利，如今背负着至少相当于年净利润五倍以上的债务。",[14,800,801],{},"大都会和华盛顿邮报强健的资产负债表和优秀的管理层，使我们对这两项投资感到比持有任何其它媒体公司都更安心。而且，大多数媒体资产的经济特征至今仍然远好于美国企业的平均水平。只是那种刀枪不入的特许经营权和取之不尽的丰裕暴利的时代，已经一去不复返了。",[44,803,804],{"id":804},"糖果店的二十年",[14,806,807],{},"我们刚跨过一个里程碑：二十年前的1972年1月3日，蓝筹印花 (Blue Chip Stamps)（当时是伯克希尔的关联公司，后来并入其中）买下了喜诗糖果 (See’s Candy Shops)，一家西海岸的盒装巧克力制造和零售商。卖方开出的名义价格——按我们最终取得的100%股权换算——是4,000万美元。但公司账上有1,000万美元的多余现金，所以实际要价是3,000万。查理和我当时还没有充分认识到经济特许经营权的价值，看到这家公司不过700万美元的有形净资产后，说2,500万是我们能出的最高价了（而且我们是认真的）。幸运的是，卖方接受了。",[14,809,810],{},"此后蓝筹印花的印花销售额从1972年的1.025亿美元滑落到1991年的120万美元。但同期喜诗糖果的销售额从2,900万增长到了1.96亿美元。更出色的是，利润的增长速度甚至比销售额还快，税前利润从1972年的420万增长到去年的4,240万美元。",[14,812,813],{},"要正确评估利润的增长，必须将其与产生利润所需的增量资本投入联系起来看。在这方面，喜诗的表现简直令人惊叹：这家公司目前只需要2,500万美元的净资产就可以轻松运营，也就是说在最初的700万基础上仅需追加1,800万的留存收益。与此同时，喜诗在这二十年间剩余的4.1亿税前利润全部分配给了蓝筹印花\u002F伯克希尔，让这些公司可以（在缴税后）将资金投向最合理的用途。",[14,815,816],{},"在收购喜诗时，查理和我有一个重要的洞见：我们看到这家企业拥有尚未开发的提价能力。除此之外，我们在两件事上很走运。第一，整个交易没有因为我们愚蠢地坚持2,500万美元的上限而黄掉。第二，我们发现了查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins)，当时喜诗的执行副总裁，我们立刻让他全面掌管。不论在公务还是私交方面，我们与查克的经历都无可挑剔。举一个例子：收购完成时，我们和查克握手敲定了他的薪酬安排——前后大约花了五分钟，也从没签过书面合同——这个安排一直沿用到今天。",[14,818,819],{},"1991年，喜诗糖果以美元计的销售额与1990年持平。但以磅数衡量，销量下降了4%。所有的下滑都发生在年末的最后两个月，而这段时间通常贡献全年80%以上的利润。尽管销售疲软，去年的利润还是增长了7%，税前利润率更创下了21.6%的历史新高。",[14,821,822],{},"喜诗将近80%的收入来自加州，我们的生意显然受到了经济衰退的冲击，特别是下半年加州的打击尤为沉重。另一个负面因素是加州在年中开始对”零食”征收7%-8%的营业税（税率因各市镇而异），我们的糖果也不能幸免。",[14,824,825],{},"精研认识论差异的股东一定会对加州关于”零食”和”非零食”的分类感到饶有兴味：",[69,827,828,838],{},[72,829,830],{},[75,831,832,835],{},[78,833,834],{},"应税”零食”",[78,836,837],{},"免税”非零食”",[91,839,840,848,856,864,872],{},[75,841,842,845],{},[96,843,844],{},"乐之饼干 (Ritz Crackers)",[96,846,847],{},"苏打饼干 (Soda Crackers)",[75,849,850,853],{},[96,851,852],{},"爆好的爆米花 (Popped Popcorn)",[96,854,855],{},"未爆的爆米花 (Unpopped Popcorn)",[75,857,858,861],{},[96,859,860],{},"格兰诺拉麦棒 (Granola Bars)",[96,862,863],{},"格兰诺拉麦片 (Granola Cereal)",[75,865,866,869],{},[96,867,868],{},"包装好的一片派 (Slice of Pie, Wrapped)",[96,870,871],{},"一整个派 (Whole Pie)",[75,873,874,877],{},[96,875,876],{},"银河糖果棒 (Milky Way Candy Bar)",[96,878,879],{},"银河冰淇淋棒 (Milky Way Ice Cream Bar)",[14,881,882,883,886],{},"你一定忍不住要问——一根",[33,884,885],{},"融化了的","银河冰淇淋棒算什么？在这种雌雄莫辨的状态下，它到底更像冰淇淋棒还是被太阳晒化的糖果棒？也难怪加州公平交易委员会主席布拉德·谢尔曼 (Brad Sherman) 会这么说——他本人反对这项零食法案，却不得不负责执行——“我是以税法专家的身份到这个委员会任职的。现在我觉得选民们当初应该选的是茱莉亚·查尔德（Julia Child，美国著名烹饪大师）。”",[14,888,889],{},"查理跟我有太多理由要感谢查克和喜诗糖果。最显而易见的是，他们帮我们赚了丰厚的回报，而且整个过程令人愉快。同样重要的是，拥有喜诗让我们学到了很多关于如何评估特许经营权的知识。我们在某些股票投资上赚到了可观的收益，正是因为在喜诗身上学到的这些功课。",[44,891,892],{"id":892},"布朗鞋业",[14,894,895],{},"1991年我们完成了一项大规模的收购——布朗鞋业 (H.H. Brown)——这家公司背后有一段有趣的故事。1927年，一位29岁的年轻商人雷·赫弗南 (Ray Heffernan) 以1万美元买下了这家当时位于马萨诸塞州北布鲁克菲尔德的公司，开始了长达62年的经营生涯。（他也不忘其他爱好：90岁高龄了还在加入新的高尔夫球俱乐部。）到1990年初赫弗南先生退休时，布朗鞋业在美国拥有三家工厂，加拿大还有一家；雇员近2,000人；年税前利润约2,500万美元。",[14,897,898],{},"在此期间，赫弗南的女儿弗朗西丝 (Frances Heffernan) 嫁给了弗兰克·鲁尼 (Frank Rooney)。婚前赫弗南先生严厉地告诫这位准女婿，最好打消到岳父公司工作的任何念头。这是赫弗南先生为数不多的错误之一：弗兰克后来去了另一家鞋业公司梅尔维尔 (Melville Shoe，后改名 Melville Corp.) 当了CEO。在他1964年到1986年执掌的23年间，梅尔维尔的平均股本回报率超过20%，股价（经拆股调整后）从16美元涨到了960美元。而在弗兰克退休几年后，赫弗南先生因病请他回来掌管布朗鞋业。",[14,900,901],{},"1990年底赫弗南先生去世后，他的家人决定出售公司——这时我们的运气来了。我认识弗兰克已有几年，但还没有熟到让他会想到伯克希尔是潜在买家。他把出售的任务交给了一家大型投行，而投行也没想到我们。但去年春天，弗兰克在佛罗里达和约翰·卢米斯 (John Loomis) 一起打高尔夫。约翰是我的老朋友，也是伯克希尔的股东，他总是留意着适合我们的投资标的。听说布朗鞋业即将出售的消息后，约翰告诉弗兰克这家公司简直就是为伯克希尔量身定做的，弗兰克马上给我打了电话。我当即就觉得这笔交易能成，果然没过多久就谈妥了。",[14,903,904],{},"我之所以对这笔收购如此热情，很大程度上是因为弗兰克愿意继续担任CEO。和我们大多数经理人一样，他工作并非出于经济需要，而是因为他热爱这份事业，并且喜欢把它做到极致。这类经理人是没法用正常意义上的”招聘”来请到的。我们能做的就是提供一座够水准的音乐厅，让这些商业界的艺术大师愿意在此登台演出。",[14,906,907],{},"布朗鞋业（顺便说一句，和圣路易斯的布朗鞋 Brown Shoe 完全没有关系）是北美工作鞋和工作靴的领导品牌，在销售利润率和资产回报率方面有着非凡的历史记录。鞋业是一门艰难的生意——全美每年购买的10亿双鞋中，约85%是进口的——行业内大多数制造商表现不佳。繁多的款式和尺码导致库存居高不下，大量资本又被应收账款所占压。在这样的环境中，只有像弗兰克和赫弗南先生所培养出来的这批出色管理人才，才有可能生存发展。",[14,909,910],{},"布朗鞋业有一个与众不同的特点，也是我所见过的最独特的薪酬体系之一——但让我打心底里喜欢：几位核心经理人的年薪只有7,800美元，在此基础上加上公司利润（扣除运用资本成本之后）的一定比例。因此这些经理人真正和股东穿着同一双鞋。相比之下，大多数经理人只是说说空话却不见行动，选择的薪酬制度胡萝卜多棍子少（奖励多惩罚少），而且几乎总是把股东投入的资本当作免费的。不管怎样，布朗的这套安排对公司和经理人都极为有利，这一点并不奇怪：那些渴望在自己能力上下重注的经理人，通常都有足够的能力值得下注。",[741,912],{},[14,914,915],{},"令人沮丧的是，虽然我们曾四次大规模收购由知名投行代理出售的公司，但其中只有一次是投行主动找到我们的。另外三次，都是在投行按自己的名单找了一圈之后，由我本人或朋友促成了交易。我们很希望中介机构在赚取佣金的同时能想到我们的存在——因此在这里再次列明我们的收购标准：",[728,917,918,921,924,927,930,933],{},[731,919,920],{},"具有一定规模的收购（税后净利润至少1,000万美元），",[731,922,923],{},"已被证明的持续盈利能力（我们对未来预测不感兴趣，对”困境反转”也不感兴趣），",[731,925,926],{},"在很少或没有负债的情况下取得良好的股本回报率，",[731,928,929],{},"公司自带管理团队（我们提供不了管理层），",[731,931,932],{},"业务简单易懂（如果涉及太多技术，我们搞不明白），",[731,934,935],{},"有一个报价（我们不想在价格未知的情况下浪费双方的时间，哪怕是初步的探讨）。",[14,937,938],{},"我们不会进行敌意收购。我们承诺完全保密，并且会非常快速地答复是否有兴趣——通常在五分钟之内。（布朗鞋业的案子连五分钟都不需要。）我们倾向于现金交易，但如果我们获得的内在商业价值与付出的一样多，也会考虑发行股票。",[14,940,941],{},"我们最喜欢的收购模式是像我们买下内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)、菲希海默 (Fechheimer’s) 和波仙珠宝 (Borsheim’s) 时那种。在这类情况下，公司的所有者兼经营者希望套现一大笔资金，有时是给自己，但更多时候是给家人或不参与经营的股东。与此同时，这些经营者又希望保留重要的所有者身份，像过去一样继续经营自己的公司。我们认为，对于有此类需求的企业主，我们提供的方案特别合适，我们也欢迎有意出售的卖家向曾经和我们做过生意的人打听核实。",[14,943,944],{},"查理跟我经常收到一些完全不符合我们标准的收购提议：我们发现，如果你登广告说想买牧羊犬，就会有一大堆人打电话来推销他们的可卡猎犬。关于新创事业、困境反转或者拍卖式出售，有一首乡村歌曲的歌词最能表达我们的心情：“如果电话没响，你就知道那是我打来的。”",[14,946,947],{},"除了上述整体收购的兴趣之外，我们也有兴趣以协商方式买入大笔但不具控股权的股票，类似我们在大都会、所罗门 (Salomon)、吉列、全美航空 (USAir)、冠军国际 (Champion) 和美国运通 (American Express) 的持股那样。不过，对于在公开市场上买入股票的建议，我们没有兴趣。",[44,949,950],{"id":950},"保险业务",[14,952,953],{},"下表是财产意外险行业几项关键数据的最新版本：",[69,955,956,974],{},[72,957,958],{},[75,959,960,963,966,969,972],{},[78,961,962],{},"保费收入年增长率 (%)",[78,964,965],{},"综合比率（扣除保户红利后）",[78,967,968],{},"年度已发生损失变化 (%)",[78,970,971],{},"GDP平减指数通胀率 (%)",[78,973],{},[91,975,976,993,1010,1027,1044,1060,1077,1094,1111,1127,1142],{},[75,977,978,981,984,987,990],{},[96,979,980],{},"1981",[96,982,983],{},"3.8",[96,985,986],{},"106.0",[96,988,989],{},"6.5",[96,991,992],{},"10.0",[75,994,995,998,1001,1004,1007],{},[96,996,997],{},"1982",[96,999,1000],{},"3.7",[96,1002,1003],{},"109.6",[96,1005,1006],{},"8.4",[96,1008,1009],{},"6.2",[75,1011,1012,1015,1018,1021,1024],{},[96,1013,1014],{},"1983",[96,1016,1017],{},"5.0",[96,1019,1020],{},"112.0",[96,1022,1023],{},"6.8",[96,1025,1026],{},"4.0",[75,1028,1029,1032,1035,1038,1041],{},[96,1030,1031],{},"1984",[96,1033,1034],{},"8.5",[96,1036,1037],{},"118.0",[96,1039,1040],{},"16.9",[96,1042,1043],{},"4.5",[75,1045,1046,1049,1052,1055,1058],{},[96,1047,1048],{},"1985",[96,1050,1051],{},"22.1",[96,1053,1054],{},"116.3",[96,1056,1057],{},"16.1",[96,1059,1000],{},[75,1061,1062,1065,1068,1071,1074],{},[96,1063,1064],{},"1986",[96,1066,1067],{},"22.2",[96,1069,1070],{},"108.0",[96,1072,1073],{},"13.5",[96,1075,1076],{},"2.7",[75,1078,1079,1082,1085,1088,1091],{},[96,1080,1081],{},"1987",[96,1083,1084],{},"9.4",[96,1086,1087],{},"104.6",[96,1089,1090],{},"7.8",[96,1092,1093],{},"3.1",[75,1095,1096,1099,1102,1105,1108],{},[96,1097,1098],{},"1988",[96,1100,1101],{},"4.4",[96,1103,1104],{},"105.4",[96,1106,1107],{},"5.5",[96,1109,1110],{},"3.9",[75,1112,1113,1116,1119,1122,1125],{},[96,1114,1115],{},"1989",[96,1117,1118],{},"3.2",[96,1120,1121],{},"109.2",[96,1123,1124],{},"7.7",[96,1126,1101],{},[75,1128,1129,1132,1134,1136,1139],{},[96,1130,1131],{},"1990（修正）",[96,1133,1101],{},[96,1135,1003],{},[96,1137,1138],{},"4.8",[96,1140,1141],{},"4.1",[75,1143,1144,1147,1149,1152,1155],{},[96,1145,1146],{},"1991（估计）",[96,1148,1093],{},[96,1150,1151],{},"109.1",[96,1153,1154],{},"2.9",[96,1156,1000],{},[14,1158,1159],{},"综合比率代表保险总成本（已发生损失加上费用）与保费收入之比：低于100代表有承保利润，高于100代表有承保损失。比率越高，年景越差。如果把保险公司因持有保户资金（“浮存金”）所赚取的投资收益考虑在内，综合比率在107-111之间通常意味着整体损益两平，不含来自股东资金的收益。",[14,1161,1162],{},"基于以前报告中阐述的理由，即使总体通胀水平大幅低于这个数字，我们预计行业每年的已发生损失仍会以接近10%的速度增长。（过去25年间，已发生损失实际上以更快的11%速度增长。）如果同期保费收入增长大幅低于10%，承保损失就会不断攀升。",[14,1164,1165],{},"然而，行业在经营状况恶化时习惯性地少提准备金，可能会暂时掩盖真实情况——这恐怕正是去年发生的事。虽然保费增长远没有达到10%，但综合比率并没有像我预期的那样恶化，反而略有改善。行业的损失准备金数据显示，这种结果是有理由令人怀疑的，1991年的实际综合比率可能应该比报告出来的更糟。当然，从长远来看，那些用会计手段掩盖运营问题的管理层终究要面临麻烦。最后他们会落得和那个病入膏肓的病人一样：“医生，我实在做不起手术，不过你收一小笔钱帮我把X光片修一修行不行？”",[14,1167,1168],{},"伯克希尔的保险业务已经发生了变化，使得综合比率——不管是我们自己的还是行业的——与我们的业绩基本无关。对我们来说真正重要的是”从保险业务中获得的资金成本”，通俗地说就是”浮存金的成本”。",[14,1170,1171],{},"浮存金——我们获取的数额非常可观——等于损失准备金、损失调整费用准备金和未赚取保费准备金三者之和，再减去应付代理人余额、预付购置成本和分入再保险相关的递延费用。而浮存金的成本则以我们的承保损失来衡量。",[14,1173,1174],{},"下表展示了我们自1967年进入保险业以来的浮存金成本：",[69,1176,1177,1196],{},[72,1178,1179],{},[75,1180,1181,1184,1187,1190,1193],{},[78,1182,1183],{},"年份",[78,1185,1186],{},"承保损失 (1)（百万美元）",[78,1188,1189],{},"平均浮存金 (2)（百万美元）",[78,1191,1192],{},"近似资金成本（1与2之比）",[78,1194,1195],{},"年末长期政府债券收益率",[91,1197,1198,1215,1230,1245,1262,1277,1292,1307,1324,1341,1356,1371,1386,1401,1416,1430,1446,1462,1478,1494,1510,1526,1542,1557,1573],{},[75,1199,1200,1203,1206,1209,1212],{},[96,1201,1202],{},"1967",[96,1204,1205],{},"盈利",[96,1207,1208],{},"$ 17.3",[96,1210,1211],{},"低于零",[96,1213,1214],{},"5.50%",[75,1216,1217,1220,1222,1225,1227],{},[96,1218,1219],{},"1968",[96,1221,1205],{},[96,1223,1224],{},"19.9",[96,1226,1211],{},[96,1228,1229],{},"5.90%",[75,1231,1232,1235,1237,1240,1242],{},[96,1233,1234],{},"1969",[96,1236,1205],{},[96,1238,1239],{},"23.4",[96,1241,1211],{},[96,1243,1244],{},"6.79%",[75,1246,1247,1250,1253,1256,1259],{},[96,1248,1249],{},"1970",[96,1251,1252],{},"$ 0.37",[96,1254,1255],{},"32.4",[96,1257,1258],{},"1.14%",[96,1260,1261],{},"6.25%",[75,1263,1264,1267,1269,1272,1274],{},[96,1265,1266],{},"1971",[96,1268,1205],{},[96,1270,1271],{},"52.5",[96,1273,1211],{},[96,1275,1276],{},"5.81%",[75,1278,1279,1282,1284,1287,1289],{},[96,1280,1281],{},"1972",[96,1283,1205],{},[96,1285,1286],{},"69.5",[96,1288,1211],{},[96,1290,1291],{},"5.82%",[75,1293,1294,1297,1299,1302,1304],{},[96,1295,1296],{},"1973",[96,1298,1205],{},[96,1300,1301],{},"73.3",[96,1303,1211],{},[96,1305,1306],{},"7.27%",[75,1308,1309,1312,1315,1318,1321],{},[96,1310,1311],{},"1974",[96,1313,1314],{},"7.36",[96,1316,1317],{},"79.1",[96,1319,1320],{},"9.30%",[96,1322,1323],{},"8.13%",[75,1325,1326,1329,1332,1335,1338],{},[96,1327,1328],{},"1975",[96,1330,1331],{},"11.35",[96,1333,1334],{},"87.6",[96,1336,1337],{},"12.96%",[96,1339,1340],{},"8.03%",[75,1342,1343,1346,1348,1351,1353],{},[96,1344,1345],{},"1976",[96,1347,1205],{},[96,1349,1350],{},"102.6",[96,1352,1211],{},[96,1354,1355],{},"7.30%",[75,1357,1358,1361,1363,1366,1368],{},[96,1359,1360],{},"1977",[96,1362,1205],{},[96,1364,1365],{},"139.0",[96,1367,1211],{},[96,1369,1370],{},"7.97%",[75,1372,1373,1376,1378,1381,1383],{},[96,1374,1375],{},"1978",[96,1377,1205],{},[96,1379,1380],{},"190.4",[96,1382,1211],{},[96,1384,1385],{},"8.93%",[75,1387,1388,1391,1393,1396,1398],{},[96,1389,1390],{},"1979",[96,1392,1205],{},[96,1394,1395],{},"227.3",[96,1397,1211],{},[96,1399,1400],{},"10.08%",[75,1402,1403,1406,1408,1411,1413],{},[96,1404,1405],{},"1980",[96,1407,1205],{},[96,1409,1410],{},"237.0",[96,1412,1211],{},[96,1414,1415],{},"11.94%",[75,1417,1418,1420,1422,1425,1427],{},[96,1419,980],{},[96,1421,1205],{},[96,1423,1424],{},"228.4",[96,1426,1211],{},[96,1428,1429],{},"13.61%",[75,1431,1432,1434,1437,1440,1443],{},[96,1433,997],{},[96,1435,1436],{},"21.56",[96,1438,1439],{},"220.6",[96,1441,1442],{},"9.77%",[96,1444,1445],{},"10.64%",[75,1447,1448,1450,1453,1456,1459],{},[96,1449,1014],{},[96,1451,1452],{},"33.87",[96,1454,1455],{},"231.3",[96,1457,1458],{},"14.64%",[96,1460,1461],{},"11.84%",[75,1463,1464,1466,1469,1472,1475],{},[96,1465,1031],{},[96,1467,1468],{},"48.06",[96,1470,1471],{},"253.2",[96,1473,1474],{},"18.98%",[96,1476,1477],{},"11.58%",[75,1479,1480,1482,1485,1488,1491],{},[96,1481,1048],{},[96,1483,1484],{},"44.23",[96,1486,1487],{},"390.2",[96,1489,1490],{},"11.34%",[96,1492,1493],{},"9.34%",[75,1495,1496,1498,1501,1504,1507],{},[96,1497,1064],{},[96,1499,1500],{},"55.84",[96,1502,1503],{},"797.5",[96,1505,1506],{},"7.00%",[96,1508,1509],{},"7.60%",[75,1511,1512,1514,1517,1520,1523],{},[96,1513,1081],{},[96,1515,1516],{},"55.43",[96,1518,1519],{},"1,266.7",[96,1521,1522],{},"4.38%",[96,1524,1525],{},"8.95%",[75,1527,1528,1530,1533,1536,1539],{},[96,1529,1098],{},[96,1531,1532],{},"11.08",[96,1534,1535],{},"1,497.7",[96,1537,1538],{},"0.74%",[96,1540,1541],{},"9.00%",[75,1543,1544,1546,1549,1552,1555],{},[96,1545,1115],{},[96,1547,1548],{},"24.40",[96,1550,1551],{},"1,541.3",[96,1553,1554],{},"1.58%",[96,1556,1370],{},[75,1558,1559,1561,1564,1567,1570],{},[96,1560,104],{},[96,1562,1563],{},"26.65",[96,1565,1566],{},"1,637.3",[96,1568,1569],{},"1.63%",[96,1571,1572],{},"8.24%",[75,1574,1575,1577,1580,1583,1586],{},[96,1576,101],{},[96,1578,1579],{},"119.6",[96,1581,1582],{},"1,895.0",[96,1584,1585],{},"6.31%",[96,1587,1588],{},"7.40%",[14,1590,1591],{},"正如各位所见，1991年我们的资金成本远低于美国政府新发行长期债券的利率。事实上，在我们经营保险业务的25年中，有20年的资金成本低于政府公债利率，而且通常差距相当可观。在这段时期内我们还大幅增加了持有的浮存金数量，这算是好事——不过只有在资金成本令人满意的前提下才算。我们的浮存金应当会继续增长；挑战在于能否以合理的成本获取这些资金。",[14,1593,1594],{},"伯克希尔一直是巨灾再保险 (“super-cat”) 保单的超大型承保者——可能是全世界最大的。所谓巨灾再保险，就是其他保险公司为保护自己免受重大灾害损失而购买的保险。这一业务的利润波动极大。正如我去年提到的，大约1亿美元的巨灾险保费——这大致是我们一年的预期规模——可能带来从1亿美元的利润（在没有大灾害的年份）到2亿美元的损失（在发生几次大型飓风和\u002F或地震的年份）的任何结果。",[14,1596,1597],{},"我们在为这项业务定价时，预期从长期来看将赔付约90%的保费收入。但在任何一个特定年度，我们可能看起来赚了一大笔或者亏了一大笔。这部分是因为通用会计准则不允许我们在无灾年份为其他年份必然发生的损失预提准备金。实际上，一年的会计周期并不适合这类业务的性质——在评价我们的年度业绩时，大家一定要意识到这一点。",[14,1599,1600],{},"去年按照我们的定义似乎有一起巨灾事件发生，但它只触发了大约25%保单的赔付义务。因此，我们目前估计1991年巨灾业务的承保利润约为1,100万美元。（你可能会惊讶地得知1991年最大的灾害是什么：它既不是奥克兰大火，也不是鲍勃飓风 (Hurricane Bob)，而是9月份日本的一场台风，目前估计给保险业造成了约40-50亿美元的理赔损失。如果取上限计算的话，这场台风的损失将超过此前创纪录的雨果飓风 (Hurricane Hugo)。）",[14,1602,1603],{},"保险公司在海事、航空灾难以及自然灾害方面始终需要巨额的再保险保障。在1980年代，很多再保险是由”外行人”提供的——也就是不了解这门生意风险的保险公司——但他们的财务状况现在已经被烧得面目全非了。（在我亲自经营保险业务那些年，伯克希尔自己也常常是外行人。）不过保险公司和投资者一样，终究还是会重蹈覆辙。在某个时候——大概在连续几年没有大灾害之后——新的外行人又会冒出来，巨灾险的保费就会暴跌到荒唐的水平。",[14,1605,1606],{},"然而，只要费率看上去合理，我们就会继续做巨灾险的大承保商。在推销这一产品时，我们凭借一流的财务实力享有重大的竞争优势。有远见的保险公司都知道，等”大灾”来临时，很多签保单时不费吹灰之力的再保险商会发现签支票却难如登天。（有些再保险商简直就像喜剧演员杰基·梅森 (Jackie Mason) 说的那样：“我这辈子的钱都够用了——只要我什么都不买。”）伯克希尔在任何极端逆境下都有能力履行所有承诺，这一点毋庸置疑。",[14,1608,1609],{},"总而言之，保险业为伯克希尔提供了最大的机会。迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg) 自接手以来在这项业务上创造了奇迹，它已经成为一项非常宝贵的资产——虽然无法精确估值。",[44,1611,1612],{"id":1612},"有价证券股票投资",[14,1614,1615],{},"下表列出了我们市值超过1亿美元的普通股持仓。其中少量投资系由伯克希尔持股不到100%的子公司所持有。",[69,1617,1618,1634],{},[72,1619,1620],{},[75,1621,1622,1625,1628,1631],{},[78,1623,1624],{},"股数",[78,1626,1627],{},"公司",[78,1629,1630],{},"成本 1991\u002F12\u002F31（千美元）",[78,1632,1633],{},"市值 1991\u002F12\u002F31（千美元）",[91,1635,1636,1649,1662,1676,1689,1702,1716,1729],{},[75,1637,1638,1641,1643,1646],{},[96,1639,1640],{},"3,000,000",[96,1642,546],{},[96,1644,1645],{},"$ 517,500",[96,1647,1648],{},"$ 1,300,500",[75,1650,1651,1654,1656,1659],{},[96,1652,1653],{},"46,700,000",[96,1655,563],{},[96,1657,1658],{},"1,023,920",[96,1660,1661],{},"3,747,675",[75,1663,1664,1667,1670,1673],{},[96,1665,1666],{},"2,495,200",[96,1668,1669],{},"联邦住房贷款抵押公司（房地美）",[96,1671,1672],{},"77,245",[96,1674,1675],{},"343,090",[75,1677,1678,1681,1683,1686],{},[96,1679,1680],{},"6,850,000",[96,1682,611],{},[96,1684,1685],{},"45,713",[96,1687,1688],{},"1,363,150",[75,1690,1691,1694,1696,1699],{},[96,1692,1693],{},"24,000,000",[96,1695,596],{},[96,1697,1698],{},"600,000",[96,1700,1701],{},"1,347,000",[75,1703,1704,1707,1710,1713],{},[96,1705,1706],{},"31,247,000",[96,1708,1709],{},"健力士 (Guinness PLC)",[96,1711,1712],{},"264,782",[96,1714,1715],{},"296,755",[75,1717,1718,1721,1723,1726],{},[96,1719,1720],{},"1,727,765",[96,1722,627],{},[96,1724,1725],{},"9,731",[96,1727,1728],{},"336,050",[75,1730,1731,1734,1736,1739],{},[96,1732,1733],{},"5,000,000",[96,1735,642],{},[96,1737,1738],{},"289,431",[96,1740,1741],{},"290,000",[14,1743,1744],{},"一如往常，这张表反映了我们的”瑞普·凡·温克尔”式投资法（即长睡不醒法）。健力士是新建的仓位。但另外七只股票一年前就已持有（考虑到吉列从优先股转为普通股的调整），其中六只持股数量不变。唯一的例外是联邦住房贷款抵押公司（“房地美”），我们的持股略有增加。我们按兵不动的行为反映了一个观点：股票市场就像一个财富再分配中心，把钱从好动的人手里转移到有耐心的人手里。（我只是半开玩笑地说，最近的一些事件表明，那些备受责骂的”坐享其成的有钱人”一直在受着不白之冤：他们的财富不减反增，而许多”精力充沛的有钱人”——激进的房地产运营商、企业并购家、石油钻探大亨等等——却眼睁睁看着自己的财产烟消云散。）",[14,1746,1747],{},"我们对健力士的持股是伯克希尔第一次对美国境外公司进行大规模投资。不过健力士赚钱的方式与可口可乐和吉列非常相似——这两家美国公司的利润大部分来自国际业务。事实上，从利润的洲际分布来看，可口可乐和健力士有着惊人的相似性。（但你永远不会把它们的饮料搞混——而你们的董事长本人依然坚定不移地站在樱桃可口可乐阵营。）",[14,1749,1750],{},"我们不断寻找那些业务容易理解、经济特征持久且令人垂涎、由有能力且以股东利益为导向的管理层经营的大型企业。这种聚焦并不保证结果：我们既要以合理的价格买入，也要确保被投资公司的经营表现验证了我们的判断。但这种投资方式——寻找超级明星——是我们获得真正成功的唯一机会。考虑到我们运作的资金规模，查理和我实在没那个本事通过机灵地买进卖出一堆平庸企业的股份来获取出色的回报。我们也不认为其他人能靠像蜜蜂一样从一朵花飞到另一朵花来取得长期投资成功。事实上，我们认为把那些频繁交易的机构称为”投资者”，就像是把一个反复搞一夜情的人称为”浪漫主义者”一样。",[14,1752,1753],{},"假如我的投资范围仅限于，比方说，奥马哈的私营企业，我会首先评估每家公司的长期经济特征；其次评估管理层的素质；第三，以合理的价格买入其中几家最好的。我肯定不会想平均持有城里每一家公司的股份。那么，当面对更广阔的上市公司世界时，伯克希尔为什么要采取不同的策略呢？既然找到伟大的企业和杰出的经理人如此困难，我们又为什么要抛弃那些已经被证明过的品种呢？（我差点想说”正宗好东西”。）我们的座右铭是：“如果你一开始就成功了，就别再费劲去试别的了。”",[14,1755,1756,1757,1760],{},"约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (John Maynard Keynes)——他作为实战投资者的才华与他在思想上的才华不相上下——在1934年8月15日写给商业伙伴F.C.斯科特 (F.C. Scott) 的信中，把这一切都说尽了：“随着时间的推移，我越来越确信正确的投资方法是：将相当大的资金投入到自己认为有所了解、并且完全信任其管理层的企业中去。认为把资金分散到大量自己知之甚少、也没有特别理由信任的企业中就能限制风险，这种想法是错误的……一个人的知识和经验肯定是有限度的，在任何时候，我个人觉得自己有资格",[33,1758,1759],{},"充分","信任的企业很少超过两三家。”",[44,1762,1763],{"id":1763},"今日犯错",[14,1765,1766],{},"1989年的年报中，我写了”头25年的错误”，并承诺在2015年再给大家做一次更新。但第二阶段头几年的经历表明，如果我坚持原计划，积压的待讨论事项将会多到无法管理。因此，我偶尔会在这几页纸上倒倒苦水，希望公开忏悔能避免未来再犯同样的愚蠢错误。（事后剖析对医院和足球队都有用；那为什么不能用在企业和投资者身上呢？）",[14,1768,1769],{},"我们最严重的错误通常不是做错了什么，而是该做的没做。这或许让查理和我少了些尴尬，因为大家看不到这些失误；但看不到并不意味着代价就会减少。这里我说的错过，不是指错过了那些依赖新奇发明（如施乐 Xerox）、高科技（如苹果 Apple）或者出色零售模式（如沃尔玛 Wal-Mart）的公司。我们永远不可能发展出早期识别这类企业的能力。我说的是那些查理和我完全能够理解、也明显很有吸引力的投资机会——但我们最终却只是不停地咬着大拇指犹豫不决，而没有买入。",[14,1771,1772],{},"每个作家都知道用惊人的例子最能说明问题，只是我希望我现在举的这个例子不要太过触目惊心：1988年初，我们决定买入3,000万股（经后来拆股调整）联邦国民抵押贷款协会（房利美 Fannie Mae）的股票，投资额约在3.5亿至4亿美元之间。我们几年前就持有过这只股票，对这家公司的业务非常了解。更重要的是，我们清楚地看到房利美的CEO大卫·麦克斯韦尔 (David Maxwell) 出色地处理了他继承下来的一堆问题，并将公司建设成了一个金融巨擘——而最好的时光还在前头。我还专程去华盛顿拜访了大卫，确认如果我们持有大量股份，他不会感到不自在。",[14,1774,1775],{},"在我们买了大约700万股后，股价开始上涨。我沮丧之余停止了买入（谢天谢地，后来在买入可口可乐股价同样上涨时我没有重蹈覆辙）。更愚蠢的是，我出于对小仓位的厌恶，把已经持有的700万股全部卖掉了。",[14,1777,1778,1779,1782],{},"我希望能对自己在房利美上这种业余水准的表现给出一个哪怕还算合理的解释。但确实编不出来。不过我倒是可以告诉大家一个数字：截至1991年底，由于你们董事长的这个错误，伯克希尔大约",[33,1780,1781],{},"少赚","了14亿美元。",[44,1784,1785],{"id":1785},"固定收益证券",[14,1787,1788],{},"1991年我们在固定收益证券投资组合上做了几项重大变动。如前所述，我们的吉列优先股被要求赎回，迫使我们转换成普通股；我们清仓了一笔纳贝斯克 (RJR Nabisco) 的债券，因为它受到了交换要约和随后赎回的影响；我们也买入了美国运通 (American Express) 和第一帝国公司 (First Empire State Corp.，一家布法罗的银行控股公司) 的固定收益证券。此外我们还增持了1990年底建立的ACF工业 (ACF Industries) 的小额仓位。年末我们最大的几项固定收益持仓如下：",[69,1790,1791,1804],{},[72,1792,1793],{},[75,1794,1795,1798,1801],{},[78,1796,1797],{},"发行方",[78,1799,1800],{},"优先股成本及债券摊余价值（千美元）",[78,1802,1803],{},"市值（千美元）",[91,1805,1806,1817,1828,1839,1850,1861,1872,1883],{},[75,1807,1808,1811,1814],{},[96,1809,1810],{},"ACF工业",[96,1812,1813],{},"$ 93,918(2)",[96,1815,1816],{},"$118,683",[75,1818,1819,1822,1825],{},[96,1820,1821],{},"美国运通",[96,1823,1824],{},"300,000",[96,1826,1827],{},"263,265(1)(2)",[75,1829,1830,1833,1836],{},[96,1831,1832],{},"冠军国际",[96,1834,1835],{},"300,000(2)",[96,1837,1838],{},"300,000(1)",[75,1840,1841,1844,1847],{},[96,1842,1843],{},"第一帝国",[96,1845,1846],{},"40,000",[96,1848,1849],{},"50,000(1)(2)",[75,1851,1852,1855,1858],{},[96,1853,1854],{},"纳贝斯克",[96,1856,1857],{},"222,148(2)",[96,1859,1860],{},"285,683",[75,1862,1863,1866,1869],{},[96,1864,1865],{},"所罗门",[96,1867,1868],{},"700,000(2)",[96,1870,1871],{},"714,000(1)",[75,1873,1874,1877,1880],{},[96,1875,1876],{},"全美航空",[96,1878,1879],{},"358,000(2)",[96,1881,1882],{},"232,700(1)",[75,1884,1885,1888,1891],{},[96,1886,1887],{},"华盛顿公用电力系统",[96,1889,1890],{},"158,553(2)",[96,1892,1893],{},"203,071",[728,1895,1896,1899],{},[731,1897,1898],{},"由查理和我确定的公允价值",[731,1900,1901],{},"我们财务报表上的账面价值",[14,1903,1904],{},"我们对第一帝国投入的4,000万美元优先股票面利率为9%，1996年前不可被赎回，可按每股78.91美元转换为普通股。通常我会觉得这样的投资规模对伯克希尔来说太小了，但我对第一帝国的CEO鲍勃·威莫斯 (Bob Wilmers) 怀有极大的敬意，不管金额大小，都想成为他的合伙人。",[14,1906,1907],{},"我们对美国运通的投资不是普通的固定收益证券。它实际上是一种”Perc”（有上限可转换优先股），按我们3亿美元的成本计算，固定股利率为8.85%。除下述例外情况外，我们的优先股必须在发行后三年内转换为最多12,244,898股普通股。如有必要，转换比率会向下调整，以确保我们收到的普通股总价值不超过4.14亿美元。因此，虽然我们在转换时可能获得的普通股价值有上限，但没有下限。不过条款中包含一项规定：如果在我们购入后的第三个周年日普通股股价低于24.50美元，我们有权将转换日期延长一年。",[14,1909,1910],{},"总体而言，不管是从长期还是近期来看，我们在固定收益证券上的投资对我们很不错。我们从中获得了大量资本利得，1991年约为1.52亿美元。此外，我们的税后收益率也大幅超过大多数固定收益投资组合。",[14,1912,1913],{},"话虽如此，我们也遇到了一些意外，其中最大的莫过于我不得不亲自深度介入所罗门的事务。在我写这封信的同时，我也在为所罗门的年度报告撰写一封信，关于该公司的最新情况请各位参阅那份报告。（写信索取：Corporate Secretary, Salomon Inc, Seven World Trade Center, New York, NY 10048。）尽管公司历经磨难，查理和我相信我们持有的所罗门优先股在1991年略有增值。利率走低和所罗门普通股价格回升带来了这一结果。",[14,1915,1916],{},"去年我告诉各位，我们在全美航空的投资”应该没什么问题，除非航空业在未来几年被彻底摧毁”。不幸的是，1991年正是航空业被彻底摧毁的一年——中美航空 (Midway)、泛美航空 (Pan Am) 和美西航空 (America West) 相继宣告破产。（把时间拉长到14个月的话，还要加上大陆航空 Continental 和环球航空 TWA。）",[14,1918,1919],{},"我们在表中给全美航空的低估值，反映了这个行业几乎所有参与者都将持续亏损的风险，而这个风险绝不容忽视。法院鼓励破产航空公司继续运营，这进一步加大了风险。这些航空公司可以暂时定出低于行业成本的票价，因为破产企业不用承担还活着的同行需要面对的资金成本，而且它们可以通过变卖资产来填补亏损——从而暂时维持运营。这种拆家具当柴烧的定价方式，不断把本来就摇摇欲坠的航空公司推向深渊，制造出一个完美的多米诺骨牌效应，注定要把整个行业拖垮。",[14,1921,1922],{},"赛斯·斯科菲尔德 (Seth Schofield) 在1991年成为全美航空的CEO后，正在对公司运营进行重大调整，以提高它成为少数幸存者之一的机会。在美国企业界，没有比经营一家航空公司更艰难的工作了：尽管巨额的股本资金源源不断地注入，但这个行业自小鹰号（Kitty Hawk，莱特兄弟首飞之地）以来，累计算下来竟然是净亏损的。航空公司的管理者需要头脑、胆识和经验——而赛斯三者兼备。",[44,1924,1925],{"id":1925},"其它事项",[14,1927,1928],{},"大约97.7%的有效股权参与了伯克希尔1991年的股东指定捐赠计划。通过该计划捐出的款项为680万美元，共有2,630家慈善机构获益。",[14,1930,1931],{},"我们建议新股东阅读年报中关于股东指定捐赠计划的说明。要参与未来的计划，你必须确保你的股份登记在实际持有人名下，而非代理人（如经纪商、银行或存管机构）的名下。1992年8月31日之前未完成登记的股份将无法参与1992年的计划。",[14,1933,1934],{},"除了伯克希尔通过股东指定捐赠计划进行的捐赠外，旗下业务的经理人每年也通过各自公司对外捐赠，包括商品在内平均每年约150万美元。这些捐赠主要支持当地的慈善机构，如联合劝募 (The United Way)，带来的效益大致与捐赠金额相当。",[14,1936,1937],{},"但是，不管是旗下业务的经理人还是母公司的管理层，都不会用伯克希尔的资金去赞助全国性的项目或他们个人特别感兴趣的慈善活动，除非他们是以股东身份这样做的。如果你的员工，包括你的CEO在内，想捐钱给自己的母校或其他他们有私人感情的机构，我们认为他们应该用自己的钱，而不是你的。",[741,1939],{},[14,1941,1942],{},"细心的读者会注意到，许多年来第一次，查理写给韦斯科 (Wesco) 股东的年度信函没有收录在本报告中。由于他今年的信相对简短，查理说没必要放在这里；不过我个人还是建议各位想办法搞到一份韦斯科的年报。只需写信到：Corporate Secretary, Wesco Financial Corporation, 315 East Colorado Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91101。",[741,1944],{},[14,1946,1947],{},"马尔科姆·蔡斯二世 (Malcolm G. Chace, Jr.)，如今88岁高龄，决定今年不再竞选连任董事。但蔡斯家族与伯克希尔的渊源不会就此中断：马尔科姆的儿子马尔科姆三世（Kim）将被提名接替父亲。",[14,1949,1950],{},"1931年，老马尔科姆进入伯克希尔精纺联合公司 (Berkshire Fine Spinning Associates) 工作。1955年该公司与哈撒韦制造 (Hathaway Manufacturing Co.) 合并，组成了我们今天的公司。两年后，马尔科姆出任伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长。1965年初，他还担任这一职务时，一手促成了巴菲特合伙公司 (Buffett Partnership, Ltd.) 从他的一些亲属手中买下了关键的伯克希尔股权。这次收购使我们的合伙企业取得了公司的实际控制权。马尔科姆的直系家庭一直保留着伯克希尔的股份，在过去27年中一直是公司的第二大股东，仅次于巴菲特家族。与马尔科姆共事是一件愉快的事，我们很高兴蔡斯家族和伯克希尔之间长久的关系正在延续到新一代。",[741,1952],{},[14,1954,1955],{},"今年的年度股东大会将于1992年4月27日（周一）上午9:30，在奥马哈市中心的奥芬剧院 (Orpheum Theater) 举行。去年的出席人数创下1,550人的新纪录，但奥芬剧院还有大把空位。",[14,1957,1958],{},"我们建议大家尽早预订以下酒店的房间：(1) 雷迪森-雷迪克大厦 (Radisson-Redick Tower)，一家小型（88间客房）但很不错的酒店，就在奥芬剧院对面；(2) 规模大得多的红狮酒店 (Red Lion Hotel)，步行到奥芬剧院约五分钟；(3) 万豪酒店 (Marriott)，位于奥马哈西区，离波仙珠宝店约100码，开车到市中心约二十分钟。届时我们会安排巴士从万豪酒店在8:30和8:45出发前往会场，散会后送回。",[14,1960,1961],{},"查理和我总是很享受股东会，希望你们也能来。我们股东的高素质从提问的质量就能看出来：我们参加过很多公司的年会，但从没见过哪家公司能像我们这样，持续有如此高水平的、关心公司经营的聪明提问。",[14,1963,1964],{},"随附的委托书材料中说明了如何获取入场所需的凭证。随入场卡一起，我们还会附上奥芬剧院附近停车场的信息。如果你开车来，建议提早一点到。附近的停车场很快就会满，你可能得多走几个街区。",[14,1966,1967],{},"一如往常，会后我们会安排巴士带各位去内布拉斯加家具店和波仙珠宝店，之后再送到市中心的酒店或机场。我希望各位能留出充足的时间，好好逛逛这两家店的精彩之处。提前到的股东平日就可以去家具店看看；周六营业时间是上午10点到下午5:30，周日从中午到下午5:30。去的时候别忘了到喜诗糖果的摊位逛逛，亲自体验一下为什么美国人去年吃掉了2,600万磅的喜诗糖果。",[14,1969,1970],{},"波仙珠宝店周日通常不营业，但在4月26日（周日）中午到下午6点会为股东和嘉宾特别开放。前一天晚上波仙还将举办一场特别派对，欢迎股东参加。（不过必须提前写信给我们办公室的格拉迪斯·凯瑟女士 (Mrs. Gladys Kaiser) 索取邀请函。）当晚将展出百达翡丽 (Patek Philippe) 150年来最出色作品的回顾展，包括曾经由维多利亚女王 (Queen Victoria)、教宗庇护九世 (Pope Pius IX)、鲁德亚德·吉卜林 (Rudyard Kipling)、居里夫人 (Madame Curie) 和阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦 (Albert Einstein) 拥有的名表。展览的重头戏是一只价值500万美元的手表，其设计与制造耗费了百达翡丽工匠九年的心血。连同其余的珍藏一起，这只表也将在周日在店内展出——除非查理在那之前已经一时冲动把它买下了。",[14,1972,1973],{},"去年的股东会上，尼古拉斯·肯纳 (Nicholas Kenner) 又逮住我了——他指出我在1990年年报中说他在1990年5月满11岁，但实际上他当时才9岁。于是尼古拉斯相当尖刻地问道：“如果你连这个都搞不清楚，我怎么知道后面那些财务数字是对的？”到现在我还在苦想一个漂亮的回击。尼古拉斯今年还会来——他拒绝了我邀请他当天去迪士尼乐园的提议——所以欢迎大家前来观赏这场一边倒的机智较量。",[14,1975,1976],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,1978,1979],{},"董事会主席",[14,1981,1982],{},"1992年2月28日",{"title":1984,"searchDepth":1985,"depth":1985,"links":1986},"",2,[1987,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998],{"id":46,"depth":1988,"text":46},3,{"id":61,"depth":1988,"text":61},{"id":489,"depth":1988,"text":489},{"id":751,"depth":1988,"text":751},{"id":804,"depth":1988,"text":804},{"id":892,"depth":1988,"text":892},{"id":950,"depth":1988,"text":950},{"id":1612,"depth":1988,"text":1612},{"id":1763,"depth":1988,"text":1763},{"id":1785,"depth":1988,"text":1785},{"id":1925,"depth":1988,"text":1925},"致股东信",null,"1991年巴菲特致股东信，讨论经济增速放缓、投资收益创新高及所罗门兄弟投资","md",{},true,62,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":2001},"1991 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","papplQ5O9JcQo-_27syhAcq_VGV7UOqyd7wKJhvFEtk","buffett",[2014,2019,2023,2027,2030,2033,2036,2039,2042,2045,2049,2052,2055,2059,2062,2065,2069,2072,2075,2079,2082,2085,2089,2092,2095,2099,2102,2105,2109,2112,2115,2119,2122,2125,2129,2132,2135,2139,2142,2145,2149,2152,2155,2159,2162,2165,2169,2172,2175,2179,2182,2185,2189,2192,2195,2199,2202,2205,2209,2212,2215,2219,2222,2225,2229,2232,2235,2239,2242,2245,2249,2252,2255,2259,2262,2265,2269,2272,2275,2279,2282,2285,2289,2292,2295,2299,2302,2305,2309,2312,2315,2319,2322,2325,2329,2332,2335,2339,2342,2345,2349,2352,2356,2359,2363,2366,2370,2373,2377,2380,2384,2387,2391,2394,2398,2401,2405,2408,2412,2415,2419,2422,2426,2429,2433,2436,2440,2443,2447,2450,2454,2457,2461,2464,2468,2471,2475,2478,2482,2485,2489,2492,2496,2499,2503,2506,2510,2513,2517,2520,2524,2527,2531,2534,2538,2541,2542,2545,2549,2552,2556,2559,2563,2566,2570,2573,2577,2580,2584,2587,2591,2594,2598,2601,2605,2608,2612,2615,2619,2622,2626,2629,2633,2636,2640,2643,2647,2650,2654,2657,2661,2664,2668,2671,2675,2678,2682,2685,2689,2692,2696,2699,2703,2706,2710,2713,2717,2720,2724,2727,2731,2734,2738,2741,2745,2748,2752,2755,2759,2762,2766,2769,2773,2776,2780,2783,2787,2790,2794,2797,2801,2804,2808,2811,2815,2819,2823,2827,2831,2835,2839,2843,2847,2851,2855,2859,2863,2867,2871,2875,2879,2883,2887,2891,2895,2899,2903,2907,2911,2915,2919,2923,2927,2931,2935,2939,2943,2947,2951,2955,2959,2963,2967,2971,2975,2979,2983,2987,2991,2995,2999,3003,3007,3011],{"title":2015,"slug":2016,"category":2017,"order":2018},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":2020,"slug":2021,"category":2022,"order":2018},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":2024,"slug":2025,"category":2026,"order":2018},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":2028,"slug":2029,"category":2017,"order":1985},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2031,"slug":2032,"category":2022,"order":1985},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":2034,"slug":2035,"category":2026,"order":1985},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2037,"slug":2038,"category":2017,"order":1988},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2040,"slug":2041,"category":2022,"order":1988},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":2043,"slug":2044,"category":2026,"order":1988},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2046,"slug":2047,"category":2017,"order":2048},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":2050,"slug":2051,"category":2022,"order":2048},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":2053,"slug":2054,"category":2026,"order":2048},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2056,"slug":2057,"category":2017,"order":2058},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":2060,"slug":2061,"category":2022,"order":2058},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":2063,"slug":2064,"category":2026,"order":2058},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2066,"slug":2067,"category":2017,"order":2068},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":2070,"slug":2071,"category":2022,"order":2068},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":2073,"slug":2074,"category":2026,"order":2068},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2076,"slug":2077,"category":2017,"order":2078},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":2080,"slug":2081,"category":2022,"order":2078},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":2083,"slug":2084,"category":2026,"order":2078},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2086,"slug":2087,"category":2017,"order":2088},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":2090,"slug":2091,"category":2022,"order":2088},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2093,"slug":2094,"category":2026,"order":2088},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2096,"slug":2097,"category":2017,"order":2098},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":2100,"slug":2101,"category":2022,"order":2098},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":2103,"slug":2104,"category":2026,"order":2098},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2106,"slug":2107,"category":2017,"order":2108},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":2110,"slug":2111,"category":2022,"order":2108},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":2113,"slug":2114,"category":2026,"order":2108},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2116,"slug":2117,"category":2017,"order":2118},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":2120,"slug":2121,"category":2022,"order":2118},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":2123,"slug":2124,"category":2026,"order":2118},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2126,"slug":2127,"category":2017,"order":2128},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":2130,"slug":2131,"category":2022,"order":2128},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":2133,"slug":2134,"category":2026,"order":2128},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2136,"slug":2137,"category":2017,"order":2138},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":2140,"slug":2141,"category":2022,"order":2138},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":2143,"slug":2144,"category":2026,"order":2138},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2146,"slug":2147,"category":2017,"order":2148},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":2150,"slug":2151,"category":2022,"order":2148},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2153,"slug":2154,"category":2026,"order":2148},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2156,"slug":2157,"category":2017,"order":2158},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":2160,"slug":2161,"category":2022,"order":2158},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":2163,"slug":2164,"category":2026,"order":2158},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2166,"slug":2167,"category":2017,"order":2168},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":2170,"slug":2171,"category":2022,"order":2168},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":2173,"slug":2174,"category":2026,"order":2168},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2176,"slug":2177,"category":2017,"order":2178},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":2180,"slug":2181,"category":2022,"order":2178},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":2183,"slug":2184,"category":2026,"order":2178},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2186,"slug":2187,"category":2017,"order":2188},"1965 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巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2490,"slug":2491,"category":2022,"order":2488},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2493,"slug":2494,"category":1999,"order":2495},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2497,"slug":2498,"category":2022,"order":2495},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2500,"slug":2501,"category":1999,"order":2502},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2504,"slug":2505,"category":2022,"order":2502},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2507,"slug":2508,"category":1999,"order":2509},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2511,"slug":2512,"category":2022,"order":2509},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2514,"slug":2515,"category":1999,"order":2516},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2518,"slug":2519,"category":2022,"order":2516},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2521,"slug":2522,"category":1999,"order":2523},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2525,"slug":2526,"category":2022,"order":2523},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2528,"slug":2529,"category":1999,"order":2530},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2532,"slug":2533,"category":2022,"order":2530},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2535,"slug":2536,"category":1999,"order":2537},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2539,"slug":2540,"category":2022,"order":2537},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":5,"slug":2009,"category":1999,"order":2005},{"title":2543,"slug":2544,"category":2022,"order":2005},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2546,"slug":2547,"category":1999,"order":2548},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2550,"slug":2551,"category":2022,"order":2548},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2553,"slug":2554,"category":1999,"order":2555},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2557,"slug":2558,"category":2022,"order":2555},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2560,"slug":2561,"category":1999,"order":2562},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2564,"slug":2565,"category":2022,"order":2562},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2567,"slug":2568,"category":1999,"order":2569},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2571,"slug":2572,"category":2022,"order":2569},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2574,"slug":2575,"category":1999,"order":2576},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2578,"slug":2579,"category":2022,"order":2576},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2581,"slug":2582,"category":1999,"order":2583},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2585,"slug":2586,"category":2022,"order":2583},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2588,"slug":2589,"category":1999,"order":2590},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2592,"slug":2593,"category":2022,"order":2590},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2595,"slug":2596,"category":1999,"order":2597},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2599,"slug":2600,"category":2022,"order":2597},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2602,"slug":2603,"category":1999,"order":2604},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2606,"slug":2607,"category":2022,"order":2604},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2609,"slug":2610,"category":1999,"order":2611},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2613,"slug":2614,"category":2022,"order":2611},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2616,"slug":2617,"category":1999,"order":2618},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2620,"slug":2621,"category":2022,"order":2618},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2623,"slug":2624,"category":1999,"order":2625},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2627,"slug":2628,"category":2022,"order":2625},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2630,"slug":2631,"category":1999,"order":2632},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2634,"slug":2635,"category":2022,"order":2632},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2637,"slug":2638,"category":1999,"order":2639},"2005 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巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2697,"slug":2698,"category":2022,"order":2695},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2700,"slug":2701,"category":1999,"order":2702},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2704,"slug":2705,"category":2022,"order":2702},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2707,"slug":2708,"category":1999,"order":2709},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2711,"slug":2712,"category":2022,"order":2709},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2714,"slug":2715,"category":1999,"order":2716},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2718,"slug":2719,"category":2022,"order":2716},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2721,"slug":2722,"category":1999,"order":2723},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2725,"slug":2726,"category":2022,"order":2723},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2728,"slug":2729,"category":1999,"order":2730},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2732,"slug":2733,"category":2022,"order":2730},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2735,"slug":2736,"category":1999,"order":2737},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2739,"slug":2740,"category":2022,"order":2737},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":2742,"slug":2743,"category":1999,"order":2744},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":2746,"slug":2747,"category":2022,"order":2744},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":2749,"slug":2750,"category":1999,"order":2751},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":2753,"slug":2754,"category":2022,"order":2751},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2756,"slug":2757,"category":1999,"order":2758},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":2760,"slug":2761,"category":2022,"order":2758},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":2763,"slug":2764,"category":1999,"order":2765},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":2767,"slug":2768,"category":2022,"order":2765},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2770,"slug":2771,"category":1999,"order":2772},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":2774,"slug":2775,"category":2022,"order":2772},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":2777,"slug":2778,"category":1999,"order":2779},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":2781,"slug":2782,"category":2022,"order":2779},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":2784,"slug":2785,"category":1999,"order":2786},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":2788,"slug":2789,"category":2022,"order":2786},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2791,"slug":2792,"category":1999,"order":2793},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":2795,"slug":2796,"category":2022,"order":2793},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2798,"slug":2799,"category":1999,"order":2800},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":2802,"slug":2803,"category":2022,"order":2800},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2805,"slug":2806,"category":1999,"order":2807},"2026 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