[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3745},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":2213,"library-sidebar-dao":3212,"library-sidebar-models":3513},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":2199,"date":2200,"description":2201,"extension":2202,"meta":2203,"navigation":2204,"order":2205,"path":2206,"seo":2207,"seoDescription":2201,"seoTitle":2208,"slug":2209,"stem":2210,"__hash__":2211,"_collection":2212},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1990 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":2178},"minimark",[9,13,20,25,28,31,34,37,40,43,46,49,52,55,59,62,459,462,465,468,471,474,477,480,483,486,489,492,495,498,501,504,507,510,513,516,519,522,525,528,531,534,537,540,542,545,548,551,554,556,559,562,565,568,571,573,576,579,582,585,588,591,593,596,599,602,605,608,611,614,617,620,623,626,629,632,820,826,829,832,835,838,841,844,847,850,853,856,859,862,865,868,871,874,877,884,887,890,893,896,899,1296,1299,1302,1305,1308,1315,1318,1321,1324,1327,1330,1333,1336,1440,1443,1446,1449,1452,1455,1458,1461,1464,1467,1470,1473,1480,1483,1485,1488,1491,1494,1497,1500,1507,1514,1517,1520,1523,1526,1529,1532,1535,1538,1541,1544,1547,1550,1557,1560,1562,1565,1572,1576,1579,1582,1585,1607,1610,1613,1616,1619,1622,1625,1628,1631,1634,1637,1639,1642,1645,1648,1651,1653,1656,1659,1662,1665,1668,1671,1674,1677,1680,1683,1686,1690,1696,1699,1719,1721,1724,1727,1736,1742,1745,1754,1757,1760,1763,1766,1769,1772,1775,1780,1783,1786,1789,1795,1798,1801,1804,1809,1812,1815,1818,1821,1943,1946,2087,2092,2095,2098,2101,2105,2110,2113,2116,2119,2122,2125,2128,2136,2139,2142,2145,2148,2151,2154,2157,2160,2163,2166,2169,2172,2175],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1990-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,21,22],{},[17,23,24],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,26,27],{},"去年我们曾做出预测：“未来三年中，至少有一年伯克希尔的净资产几乎可以确定会减少。”在1990年下半年的大部分时间里，我们眼看就要迅速验证这一预测的准确性了。好在年末股票价格有所回升，使我们最终在1990年净资产增加了3.62亿美元，增幅为7.3%。自现任管理层接手的26年以来，每股账面价值从19.46美元增长到4,612.06美元，年复合增长率约为23.2%。",[14,29,30],{},"1990年增长之所以平淡，主要是因为我们四大核心持股的市值加在一起变化不大。去年我曾告诉各位，虽然这些公司——大都会\u002FABC (Capital Cities\u002FABC)、可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)、盖可保险 (GEICO) 和华盛顿邮报 (Washington Post)——都拥有出色的业务和一流的管理层，但这些优点已被市场广泛认可，推动四家公司的股价升至相当高的水平。此后两家媒体公司的股价大幅下跌——原因与我后面会讨论的行业演变趋势有关——而可口可乐的股价则因为我同样认同的理由而大幅上涨。总的来说，1990年底我们”四大天王”的股价虽然算不上诱人，但比起一年前要合理一些。",[14,32,33],{},"伯克希尔过去26年的辉煌记录对于预测未来毫无意义；同样，我们也希望过去一年不甚理想的记录也不能代表将来。我们继续将目标设定在内在价值每年增长15%。但正如我们不厌其烦地告诉各位的，随着我们的股本规模不断壮大（目前已达53亿美元），这个目标越来越难以实现。",[14,35,36],{},"如果我们真的能达到年均15%的增长率，我们的股东肯定会获益丰厚。不过，只有当某位股东最终卖出伯克希尔股票时，其卖价相对于内在价值的溢价比例与买入时相同，他才能获得与公司本身完全一致的回报(1)。举例来说，如果你以高于内在价值10%的溢价买入，之后内在价值每年增长15%，而你卖出时同样是10%的溢价，那么你的投资年回报率也会是15%（这里假设期间没有派发股息）。但如果你买入时溢价较高，卖出时溢价较低，那么你的收益率就会低于公司本身的业绩表现。",[14,38,39],{},"在理想情况下，每位伯克希尔股东在持股期间的投资回报，都应当与公司本身的经营成果高度吻合。这也正是伯克希尔的副董事长兼我的合伙人查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 和我都希望伯克希尔的股价能始终围绕内在价值波动的原因。相比过去两年股价对价值的漠视，我们更喜欢这种稳定性：1989年内在价值的增幅远不及账面价值44%的涨幅，但股价却飙升了85%；到了1990年，账面价值和内在价值仅微幅增长，股价却下跌了23%。",[14,41,42],{},"伯克希尔的内在价值仍然大幅超过账面价值。我们无法告诉你确切的差距有多大，因为内在价值本身就是一个估计数——事实上，光是查理和我各自的估值就可能有10%的差异。但我们确信，我们所拥有的一些优秀企业，其实际价值远高于账上所列的投资成本。",[14,44,45],{},"我们被投资公司之所以能拥有如此多的额外价值，完全要归功于正在管理它们的这批经理人。查理跟我可以毫不心虚地夸耀这支团队，因为他们所具备的才能跟我们一点关系都没有——这些超级明星一直都是这样的。我们的工作只不过是发现有才华的经理人，并为他们提供一个可以大展身手的环境。做到之后，他们把赚到的现金源源不断地送回总部，接下来我们就面临唯一的另一项任务：如何聪明地配置这些资金。",[14,47,48],{},"我个人在运营中扮演的角色，可以用我孙女艾米莉 (Emily) 的一个小故事来说明。去年秋天她过四岁生日开派对，来的人除了小朋友和疼爱她的亲戚之外，还有一位当地的小丑表演者比默 (Beemer)，他的表演节目中包含魔术。",[14,50,51],{},"开始表演时，比默请艾米莉帮忙，在”宝贝箱”上挥一挥”魔法棒”。绿色手帕放进箱子里，艾米莉挥了一下魔法棒，比默拿出来的却是蓝色手帕。散开的手帕放进去，艾米莉又庄严地挥了一下，出来的手帕却打了结。经过四轮一次比一次精彩的变幻之后，艾米莉再也按捺不住了。只见她满脸放光，兴奋地大叫：“天哪，我真的太厉害了！”",[14,53,54],{},"这就是我对伯克希尔旗下那些经营魔术师们的全部贡献——布鲁姆金家族 (the Blumkins)、弗里德曼家族 (the Friedman family)、迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg)、赫尔德曼家族 (the Heldmans)、查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins)、斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey) 和拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey)。请给他们热烈的掌声。",[56,57,58],"h3",{"id":58},"报告收益的来源",[14,60,61],{},"下表显示伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在这个表中，商誉摊销及其他重大购买法会计调整并未计入各项具体业务，而是单独汇总列示。这样做的目的是让各位看到各项业务在未被我们收购的情况下原本会呈现的收益状况。我在过去的报告中已经解释过，为什么我们认为这种呈现方式对投资者和管理者而言，比通用会计准则 (GAAP) 所要求的按个别业务逐项调整的方式更为有用。当然，我们表中最终的净收益合计与经审计的财务报表中的GAAP数字是完全一致的。",[63,64,65,84],"table",{},[66,67,68],"thead",{},[69,70,71,74,77,79,82],"tr",{},[72,73],"th",{},[72,75,76],{},"税前收益",[72,78,76],{},[72,80,81],{},"伯克希尔应占净收益（税后及少数股东权益后）",[72,83,81],{},[85,86,87,103,116,129,146,163,180,197,214,231,248,265,282,299,316,333,350,367,384,396,413,430,442],"tbody",{},[69,88,89,93,96,99,101],{},[90,91,92],"td",{},"（千美元）",[90,94,95],{},"1990",[90,97,98],{},"1989",[90,100,95],{},[90,102,98],{},[69,104,105,108,110,112,114],{},[90,106,107],{},"经营收益：",[90,109],{},[90,111],{},[90,113],{},[90,115],{},[69,117,118,121,123,125,127],{},[90,119,120],{},"保险业务：",[90,122],{},[90,124],{},[90,126],{},[90,128],{},[69,130,131,134,137,140,143],{},[90,132,133],{},"承保",[90,135,136],{},"$ (26,647)",[90,138,139],{},"$ (24,400)",[90,141,142],{},"$ (14,936)",[90,144,145],{},"$ (12,259)",[69,147,148,151,154,157,160],{},[90,149,150],{},"净投资收益",[90,152,153],{},"327,048",[90,155,156],{},"243,599",[90,158,159],{},"282,613",[90,161,162],{},"213,642",[69,164,165,168,171,174,177],{},[90,166,167],{},"布法罗新闻报",[90,169,170],{},"43,954",[90,172,173],{},"46,047",[90,175,176],{},"25,981",[90,178,179],{},"27,771",[69,181,182,185,188,191,194],{},[90,183,184],{},"费区海默",[90,186,187],{},"12,450",[90,189,190],{},"12,621",[90,192,193],{},"6,605",[90,195,196],{},"6,789",[69,198,199,202,205,208,211],{},[90,200,201],{},"柯比",[90,203,204],{},"27,445",[90,206,207],{},"26,114",[90,209,210],{},"17,613",[90,212,213],{},"16,803",[69,215,216,219,222,225,228],{},[90,217,218],{},"内布拉斯加家具店",[90,220,221],{},"17,248",[90,223,224],{},"17,070",[90,226,227],{},"8,485",[90,229,230],{},"8,441",[69,232,233,236,239,242,245],{},[90,234,235],{},"斯科特费泽制造集团",[90,237,238],{},"30,378",[90,240,241],{},"33,165",[90,243,244],{},"18,458",[90,246,247],{},"19,996",[69,249,250,253,256,259,262],{},[90,251,252],{},"喜诗糖果",[90,254,255],{},"39,580",[90,257,258],{},"34,235",[90,260,261],{},"23,892",[90,263,264],{},"20,626",[69,266,267,270,273,276,279],{},[90,268,269],{},"韦斯科——保险以外",[90,271,272],{},"12,441",[90,274,275],{},"13,008",[90,277,278],{},"9,676",[90,280,281],{},"9,810",[69,283,284,287,290,293,296],{},[90,285,286],{},"世界图书",[90,288,289],{},"31,896",[90,291,292],{},"25,583",[90,294,295],{},"20,420",[90,297,298],{},"16,372",[69,300,301,304,307,310,313],{},[90,302,303],{},"商誉摊销",[90,305,306],{},"(3,476)",[90,308,309],{},"(3,387)",[90,311,312],{},"(3,461)",[90,314,315],{},"(3,372)",[69,317,318,321,324,327,330],{},[90,319,320],{},"其他购买法会计调整",[90,322,323],{},"(5,951)",[90,325,326],{},"(5,740)",[90,328,329],{},"(6,856)",[90,331,332],{},"(6,668)",[69,334,335,338,341,344,347],{},[90,336,337],{},"利息费用*",[90,339,340],{},"(76,374)",[90,342,343],{},"(42,389)",[90,345,346],{},"(49,726)",[90,348,349],{},"(27,098)",[69,351,352,355,358,361,364],{},[90,353,354],{},"股东指定捐赠",[90,356,357],{},"(5,824)",[90,359,360],{},"(5,867)",[90,362,363],{},"(3,801)",[90,365,366],{},"(3,814)",[69,368,369,372,375,378,381],{},[90,370,371],{},"其他",[90,373,374],{},"58,309",[90,376,377],{},"23,755",[90,379,380],{},"35,782",[90,382,383],{},"12,863",[69,385,386,388,390,392,394],{},[90,387],{},[90,389],{},[90,391],{},[90,393],{},[90,395],{},[69,397,398,401,404,407,410],{},[90,399,400],{},"经营收益",[90,402,403],{},"482,477",[90,405,406],{},"393,414",[90,408,409],{},"370,745",[90,411,412],{},"299,902",[69,414,415,418,421,424,427],{},[90,416,417],{},"出售证券收益",[90,419,420],{},"33,989",[90,422,423],{},"223,810",[90,425,426],{},"23,348",[90,428,429],{},"147,575",[69,431,432,434,436,438,440],{},[90,433],{},[90,435],{},[90,437],{},[90,439],{},[90,441],{},[69,443,444,447,450,453,456],{},[90,445,446],{},"总收益——所有实体",[90,448,449],{},"$ 516,466",[90,451,452],{},"$ 617,224",[90,454,455],{},"$ 394,093",[90,457,458],{},"$ 447,477",[14,460,461],{},"** 不含斯科特费泽财务集团和互助储贷的利息费用。*",[14,463,464],{},"年报中还有各业务部门的详细信息，有关韦斯科 (Wesco) 公司的信息，我强烈建议大家阅读查理·芒格写的那封信，里面包含了我所见过的对银行业最清晰、最深刻的分析。",[14,466,467],{},"此外，我们已将伯克希尔的财务数据重新归为四个板块，这与查理和我思考业务的方式一致，应该比合并报表更有助于各位估算伯克希尔的内在价值。这些页面上展示的资产负债表和损益表分别为：(1) 我们的保险业务，并逐项列出主要投资头寸；(2) 我们的制造、出版和零售业务，剔除某些非经营性资产和购买法会计调整；(3) 从事金融业务的子公司，即互助储贷和斯科特费泽财务公司；(4) 其他类别，包含第(2)类公司持有的非经营性资产（主要是有价证券）、所有购买法会计调整，以及韦斯科和伯克希尔母公司的各类资产与负债。",[14,469,470],{},"如果你将这四个板块的收益和净资产加总，会得到与经审计的GAAP报表完全一致的数字。不过我必须强调，这种四板块的分类方式并未经过审计师的审核，我想他们宁可不看。",[56,472,473],{"id":473},"透视收益",[14,475,476],{},"“收益”这个词听起来很精确。当一个收益数字再配上审计师的无保留意见，天真的读者可能会以为它就像圆周率一样，精确到好几位小数。",[14,478,479],{},"然而事实上，当公司的报告由骗子主导时，收益可以像橡皮泥一样被任意揉捏。最终真相当然会浮出水面，但在那之前，大笔财富可能已经易手。确实，不少美国财富传奇就是靠将会计海市蜃楼变现而创造出来的。",[14,481,482],{},"会计上的花招并不是什么新鲜事。对企业诈骗的鉴赏家们，我特意在附录A中收录了本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 在1936年撰写的一篇此前从未发表的讽刺文章，专门调侃会计实务。遗憾的是，自此以后他所嘲讽的那些过分做法已多次出现在美国大企业的财务报表中，并且都获得了知名会计师事务所的签字背书。显然，投资人必须时刻保持警惕，把会计数字当作计算真正”经济收益”的起点，而非终点。",[14,484,485],{},"伯克希尔本身的报告收益也具有误导性，虽然方式不同，但同样重要：我们在被投资公司中持有大量股权，这些公司的收益远超它们派发的股息，而我们只按收到的股息金额计入收益。最极端的例子是大都会\u002FABC公司 (Capital Cities\u002FABC, Inc.)。按我们17%的持股比例，去年可分享的收益超过8,300万美元。然而伯克希尔的GAAP收益中只计入了约53万美元（即该公司派给我们的60万美元股息减去约7万美元的税）。剩下的8,200多万美元留在了大都会公司作为留存收益，这些钱为我们的利益服务，却在我们的账上毫无踪迹。",[14,487,488],{},"我们对这种”被遗忘但并未消失”的收益态度很简单：它们在会计上如何处理并不重要，重要的是谁拥有它们以及之后如何运用。我们不在乎审计师有没有听到森林里一棵树倒下的声音；我们在乎的是这棵树归谁所有，以及接下来怎么处理它。",[14,490,491],{},"当可口可乐用留存收益回购自己的股票时，等于间接增加了我们在这家我认为是全世界最有价值的特许经营权企业中的持股比例。（当然，可口可乐还把留存收益用在许多其他增加价值的地方。）可口可乐也可以不回购股票，而是把这些钱以股息的方式发给我们，然后我们再用这笔钱去买更多可口可乐的股票。但后一种做法效率较低：由于我们要为股息收入缴税，最终能增加的持股比例不如可口可乐代我们回购所能达到的效果。然而讽刺的是，如果走这条效率更低的路线，伯克希尔的报告收益反而会好看得多。",[14,493,494],{},"我认为衡量我们收益最好的方法是用”透视收益“的概念，计算方式如下：取2.5亿美元，这大约是我们在1990年应占的被投资公司保留经营收益；扣除3,000万美元——如果这2.5亿美元以股息形式支付给我们，我们需要额外缴纳的税款；将余下的2.2亿美元加上我们3.71亿美元的报告经营收益。这样，我们1990年的”透视收益”大约为5.9亿美元。",[14,496,497],{},"如我去年提到的，我们希望透视收益每年能增长约15%。1990年我们大幅超额完成了这个目标，但1991年将远远达不到。我们持有的吉列 (Gillette) 可转换优先股已被赎回，我们将在4月1日将其转换为普通股。这将使年报告收益减少约3,500万美元，透视收益也会有较小但仍然显著的减少。此外，我们在媒体业务方面的收益——不论是直接还是透视——看来肯定会下降。不管结果如何，我们每年都会向各位报告透视收益的表现。",[56,499,500],{"id":500},"非保险业务运营",[14,502,503],{},"请再看看前面那些数字——我们非保险业务的收益和资产负债汇总。1990年的平均股本税后回报率为51%，这个成绩放在1989年的财富500强 (Fortune 500) 中大约能排到第20名。",[14,505,506],{},"有两个因素让这样的回报更加了不起。首先，这不是靠杠杆取得的：我们几乎所有的主要设施都是自有的，而非租赁的，仅有的少量负债基本可以被手头持有的现金完全抵消。事实上，如果衡量标准换成总资产回报率——一种排除了负债对回报影响的计算方法——我们的这个业务群甚至可以排进财富500强的前10名。",[14,508,509],{},"同样重要的是，我们的回报并非来自烟草或网络电视台这类所有参与者都能坐享出色经济效益的行业。恰恰相反，它来自一群经营着家具零售、糖果、吸尘器甚至钢铁仓储等再平淡不过的产业的企业。解释很简单：我们非凡的回报源于杰出的运营经理人，而非得天独厚的行业经济特征。",[14,511,512],{},"让我们来看看其中几项较大的业务：",[56,514,515],{"id":515},"波仙珠宝",[14,517,518],{},"去年对零售业来说是相当惨淡的一年——尤其是高单价商品——可惜大概有人忘了告诉波仙珠宝店 (Borsheim’s) 的艾克·弗里德曼 (Ike Friedman) 这回事。店里的销售额逆势增长了18%。这既是同店增长率也是全店增长率，因为波仙自始至终就只有一家店。",[14,520,521],{},"但这家店可了不得！我们没法百分之百确认（因为大多数高端珠宝店都是私人拥有的），但我们相信，除了纽约蒂芙尼 (Tiffany) 的旗舰店之外，全美没有哪家珠宝店的销售额能比得上波仙。",[14,523,524],{},"如果我们的顾客只来自大奥马哈都会区——总人口约60万——波仙的生意不可能做到这么大。长久以来，我们在大奥马哈地区的珠宝市场占有率就已经很高了，因此该市场的增长潜力必然有限。但每年来自非中西部地区的生意都在大幅增长。很多人亲自登门拜访。不过还有很大一部分顾客是通过邮购方式买我们的产品，你会觉得这种方式相当有趣。",[14,526,527],{},"这些顾客会指定某一类型和价位的珠宝——比如1万到2万美元区间的绿宝石——然后我们会寄出五到十件符合他们要求的样品供挑选。去年我们总共邮寄了约1,500组各式各样的珠宝组合，价值从不到1,000美元到几十万美元不等。",[14,529,530],{},"这些产品被寄往全美各地，有些收件人甚至是波仙从未谋面的。（当然，他们必须有可靠的人推荐。）虽然1990年的邮购数量创下了纪录，但其实艾克几十年前就开始远程销售商品了。愤世嫉俗者得知我们的”荣誉制度”运作得如此之好，恐怕要崩溃了——截至目前，我们还从未因为顾客不诚实而遭受过损失。",[14,532,533],{},"我们之所以能够吸引全国各地的生意，是因为我们拥有几项竞争对手无法匹敌的优势。其中最关键的是我们的运营成本——大约占销售额的18%，而一般竞争对手约为40%。（这18%包含了持有和采购成本，有些上市公司把它们归入”销售成本”。）就像沃尔玛 (Wal-Mart) 凭借15%的运营费率，能以高成本竞争者无法企及的价格销售，从而不断扩大市场份额一样，波仙也是如此。卖尿布管用的道理，卖钻石一样管用。",[14,535,536],{},"低价带来了巨大的销量，而销量反过来让我们可以备有品种极为丰富的库存，其规模是一般高端珠宝店的十倍甚至更多。把我们的品种齐全、价格低廉再加上一流的服务结合在一起，你就能理解艾克和他的家人是如何在奥马哈这个地方打造出一个全国性的珠宝传奇了。",[14,538,539],{},"说到家人，确实是全家齐上阵。艾克的团队永远少不了儿子艾伦 (Alan) 和女婿马文·科恩 (Marvin Cohn) 与唐纳德·耶尔 (Donald Yale)。生意忙的时候——这种情况经常发生——艾克的太太罗兹 (Roz) 和女儿贾妮斯 (Janis)、苏茜 (Susie) 也会来帮忙。此外，路易 (Louie)（内布拉斯加家具店的董事长，也是艾克的表兄弟）的太太弗兰·布鲁姆金 (Fran Blumkin) 也经常过来搭把手。最后，大家还会看到艾克89岁的老母亲丽贝卡 (Rebecca)——她大多数下午都会手拿一份《华尔街日报》坐镇店里。有这样一个全家族的投入，波仙能把那些由每天只想着几点下班的经理人经营的店打得落花流水，这还有什么好奇怪的呢？",[56,541,218],{"id":218},[14,543,544],{},"弗兰·布鲁姆金在帮弗里德曼家族在波仙珠宝创造纪录的同时，她的丈夫路易和儿子艾文 (Irv) 与罗恩 (Ron) 也在内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart) 创着纪录。我们仅此一家的门店1990年销售额达到1.59亿美元，较1989年增长4%。虽然同样无法百分之百确证，但我们相信内布拉斯加家具店的销售额大约是全美任何一家家居用品店的两倍。",[14,546,547],{},"内布拉斯加家具店的成功秘诀与波仙如出一辙。首先，运营成本低到令人难以置信——1990年只有15%，而全美最大的家具零售商利维茨 (Levitz) 约为40%，领先的电子和家电折扣零售商电路城 (Circuit City Stores) 约为25%。其次，低成本使得内布拉斯加家具店的定价远低于所有竞争对手。事实上，大型连锁店深知在奥马哈会面对什么样的对手，所以干脆绕道而行。第三，低价带来的巨大销量让我们能够提供无处能比的最全品类。",[14,549,550],{},"内布拉斯加家具店的商品魔力从最近一份得梅因 (Des Moines) 消费者行为调查报告中可见一斑：在服务该市的20家家具零售商中，内布拉斯加家具店的受欢迎程度排名第三。这听起来或许没什么了不起——除非你知道那20家中有19家就在得梅因当地，而我们的店离那儿足足有130英里远。也就是说，当地居民宁可开上相当于从华盛顿到费城那么远的路来我们这里购物，虽然家门口就有数不清的选择。事实上，内布拉斯加家具店和波仙一样，极大地扩展了自己的服务半径——靠的不是传统的开新店模式，而是用价格和品类打造一块无法抗拒的磁铁，把人们从四面八方吸引过来。",[14,552,553],{},"去年在家具店还发生了一件历史性事件：我经历了一次”反顿悟”。经常阅读本报告的读者都知道，长期以来我一直对企业高管们鼓吹的”协同效应”嗤之以鼻，把这种说法看作是为愚蠢并购辩护的最后遮羞布。但现在我改主意了：在伯克希尔史上第一次协同效应大爆发中，内布拉斯加家具店去年底在店里摆了一辆喜诗糖果 (See’s Candies) 的零售推车，结果卖出的糖果居然比喜诗在加州某些正规门店的销量还多。这个成功打破了所有零售业定律。不过有布鲁姆金家族在，实现不可能的事只是家常便饭。",[56,555,252],{"id":252},[14,557,558],{},"喜诗糖果在1990年的销售磅数创下了新纪录——不过仅仅是勉强，而且主要得益于年初的良好销售。伊拉克入侵科威特后，西部各购物中心的客流大幅减少。我们圣诞季的销售磅数略有下降，但由于提价5%，美元销售额反而有所增长。",[14,560,561],{},"销售额的增长再加上对费用更好的控制，利润率得到改善。在零售业大环境疲弱的背景下，查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins) 依然交出了出色的成绩单，就像我们拥有喜诗糖果以来的19年中他每一年所做的那样。查克在业务上留下的印记——对品质和服务近乎狂热的追求——在我们全部225家门店中都清晰可见。",[14,563,564],{},"1990年发生的一件事最能说明喜诗糖果与顾客之间的紧密纽带。我们在阿尔伯克基 (Albuquerque) 的一家门店经营了15年后面临关闭的危险：房东不愿续租，而是希望我们搬到商场里一个较差的位置，而且还要大幅提高租金。这些变动会把门店的利润吃得一干二净。经过漫长的谈判毫无结果后，我们只好定下了关店的日期。",[14,566,567],{},"这时，店经理安·菲尔金斯 (Ann Filkins) 自发行动起来，敦促顾客们对关店一事表示抗议。总共有263位顾客写信或打电话到喜诗位于旧金山的总部，有些人甚至扬言要抵制整个购物中心。阿尔伯克基当地报纸一位敏锐的记者捕捉到了这个故事。面对消费者起义的铁证，我们的房东开出了一个令人满意的条件。（看来他也经历了一次”反顿悟”。）",[14,569,570],{},"事后，查克亲笔给每一位忠实支持者写了感谢信，并送上礼品券。他还在报纸上刊登了一则广告致谢，列出了全部263位顾客的名字。后续：阿尔伯克基门店的圣诞节销售大幅增长。",[56,572,167],{"id":167},[14,574,575],{},"查理和我对过去一年媒体行业的发展感到相当意外，包括我们的布法罗新闻报 (Buffalo News)。这个行业在经济衰退初期所表现出的脆弱程度远超过去的经验。问题在于：这种侵蚀只是非正常周期的一部分——下一次景气回升时会完全恢复——还是企业的竞争力已经受到永久性的削弱，内在价值从此降低？",[14,577,578],{},"既然我没能预见已经发生的事，你们可能有理由质疑我对未来预测的价值。尽管如此，我还是给出我的判断：虽然相较于美国整体产业，许多媒体业务仍将保持不错的经济表现，但它们将被证明远不如几年前我、业界或放贷人所预期的那么出色。",[14,580,581],{},"媒体业务过去之所以能如此出众，并不是因为实物规模的增长，而主要是靠大多数参与者所拥有的非同寻常的定价能力。然而现在，广告支出的增长已经放缓。此外，那些很少或根本不做媒体广告（虽然偶尔会利用邮政服务）的零售商，已在某些商品类别中逐步蚕食市场份额。最重要的是，印刷和电子广告渠道的数量大幅增加。结果，广告费被更广泛地分散，广告媒体的定价能力因而减弱。这些情况实质性地降低了我们主要媒体投资以及我们运营的布法罗新闻报的内在价值——尽管它们仍然是不错的生意。",[14,583,584],{},"撇开这些问题不谈，斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey) 对新闻报的管理依然出类拔萃。1990年我们的收益表现远好于大多数大都市报纸，仅下滑了5%。不过在去年最后几个月里，下降的幅度要大得多。",[14,586,587],{},"关于布法罗新闻报在1991年的前景，我可以放心地做出两个保证：(1) 斯坦将继续在所有报纸出版商中名列前茅；(2) 收益一定会大幅下降。尽管新闻纸的需求有所放缓，但1991年每吨的均价仍将显著上升，报纸的人工成本也会大幅增加。与此同时，营收可能还会下降，我们面临着双向挤压的局面。",[14,589,590],{},"利润虽然缩水，但我们对产品依然感到骄傲。我们继续保持着比任何同类报纸都更高的”新闻版面率”——即报纸中用于刊登新闻的版面比例。1990年这一比例从1989年的50.1%升至52.3%。唉，增加的原因是广告版面减少了，而非新闻版面增多了。不管盈利压力多大，我们都会维持至少50%的新闻版面率。降低产品品质绝不是应对逆境的正确做法。",[56,592,184],{"id":184},[14,594,595],{},"我们的制服制造与零售商费区海默 (Fechheimer) 全是好消息，只有一个例外：69岁的乔治·赫尔德曼 (George Heldman) 决定退休。我试图说服他改变主意，但他有一个无懈可击的理由：他留下了四位赫尔德曼家族的成员——鲍勃 (Bob)、弗雷德 (Fred)、加里 (Gary) 和罗杰 (Roger)——为我们提供了充沛的管理人才。",[14,597,598],{},"费区海默的经营业绩在1990年大幅改善，我们在1988年进行的大型收购所带来的许多整合问题已经缓解或解决。不过几个特殊项目使得收益来源表上的数字看起来平平。在零售方面，我们继续拓展门店，目前在全美22个州拥有42家店。总的来说，费区海默的前景相当看好。",[56,600,601],{"id":601},"斯科特费泽",[14,603,604],{},"在斯科特费泽 (Scott Fetzer)，拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey) 经营着19家企业，其娴熟程度是大多数人连管好一家都望尘莫及的。除了监管世界图书公司 (World Book)、柯比吸尘器 (Kirby) 和斯科特费泽制造公司这三家业务外，拉尔夫还掌管着一家财务公司，该公司1990年创下了1,220万美元的税前利润新纪录。",[14,606,607],{},"如果斯科特费泽是一家独立公司，它的股本回报率在财富500强中的排名将接近榜首，尽管它所处的行业并不是人们期望中能出经济冠军的地方。这些卓越的业绩完完全全归功于拉尔夫。",[14,609,610],{},"世界图书公司的收益在销售量略有下降的情况下依然改善了。1990年分散管理的成本比1989年低了不少，而分散化带来的好处正在逐步显现。世界百科全书在美国百科全书销售市场中依旧遥遥领先，国际业务虽然基数还小，但也在持续增长中。",[14,612,613],{},"得益于第三代 (Generation 3) 新型吸尘器的推出，柯比在1990年的销量大幅增长，这款产品取得了毫无争议的成功。由于新产品启动阶段的费用和制造过程中的”学习曲线”问题，利润的增幅不及销售额的增幅。去年我提到的国际业务爆发式增长的势头延续下来，1990年又实现了20%的销售增长。再加上最近一次提价，我们预计柯比在1991年的利润将相当可观。",[14,615,616],{},"在斯科特费泽制造集团内部，最大的业务单元坎贝尔·豪斯菲尔德 (Campbell Hausfeld) 今年表现尤为突出。这家公司是全美中小型空气压缩机的领军者，年度销售额创下1.09亿美元的新纪录，其中超过30%的收入来自最近五年推出的新产品。",[618,619],"hr",{},[14,621,622],{},"在查看我们非保险业务的数据时，你会注意到1990年净资产仅增加了4,700万美元，尽管当年收益为1.33亿美元。这并不意味着我们的经理人在任何方面吝啬于那些能强化企业竞争力或促进增长的投资。事实上，他们积极地追求这两个目标。",[14,624,625],{},"但他们也绝不会毫无理由地动用资金。结果就是：过去五年，他们把所赚收益的80%以上交给了查理和我，用于寻找新的业务和投资机会。",[56,627,628],{"id":628},"保险业务运营",[14,630,631],{},"下表是我们常用的财产意外险行业关键数据表的更新版：",[63,633,634,653],{},[66,635,636],{},[69,637,638,641,644,647,650],{},[72,639,640],{},"年份",[72,642,643],{},"保费收入年增长率 (%)",[72,645,646],{},"含保户红利后的法定综合比率",[72,648,649],{},"年理赔损失增长率 (%)",[72,651,652],{},"GNP平减指数衡量的通胀率 (%)",[85,654,655,672,688,704,720,737,754,771,788,805],{},[69,656,657,660,663,666,669],{},[90,658,659],{},"1981",[90,661,662],{},"3.8",[90,664,665],{},"106.0",[90,667,668],{},"6.5",[90,670,671],{},"9.6",[69,673,674,677,680,683,686],{},[90,675,676],{},"1982",[90,678,679],{},"3.7",[90,681,682],{},"109.6",[90,684,685],{},"8.4",[90,687,668],{},[69,689,690,693,696,699,702],{},[90,691,692],{},"1983",[90,694,695],{},"5.0",[90,697,698],{},"112.0",[90,700,701],{},"6.8",[90,703,662],{},[69,705,706,709,712,715,718],{},[90,707,708],{},"1984",[90,710,711],{},"8.5",[90,713,714],{},"118.0",[90,716,717],{},"16.9",[90,719,662],{},[69,721,722,725,728,731,734],{},[90,723,724],{},"1985",[90,726,727],{},"22.1",[90,729,730],{},"116.3",[90,732,733],{},"16.1",[90,735,736],{},"3.0",[69,738,739,742,745,748,751],{},[90,740,741],{},"1986",[90,743,744],{},"22.2",[90,746,747],{},"108.0",[90,749,750],{},"13.5",[90,752,753],{},"2.6",[69,755,756,759,762,765,768],{},[90,757,758],{},"1987",[90,760,761],{},"9.4",[90,763,764],{},"104.6",[90,766,767],{},"7.8",[90,769,770],{},"3.1",[69,772,773,776,779,782,785],{},[90,774,775],{},"1988",[90,777,778],{},"4.4",[90,780,781],{},"105.4",[90,783,784],{},"5.5",[90,786,787],{},"3.3",[69,789,790,793,796,799,802],{},[90,791,792],{},"1989（修正）",[90,794,795],{},"3.2",[90,797,798],{},"109.2",[90,800,801],{},"7.7",[90,803,804],{},"4.1",[69,806,807,810,813,816,818],{},[90,808,809],{},"1990（估计）",[90,811,812],{},"4.5",[90,814,815],{},"109.8",[90,817,695],{},[90,819,804],{},[14,821,822],{},[823,824,825],"em",{},"资料来源：A.M. Best Co.",[14,827,828],{},"综合比率代表保险总成本（发生的赔付加上费用）与保费收入之比：低于100表示有承保利润，高于100则意味着亏损。比率越高，年景越差。如果把保险公司持有保户资金（即”浮存金“）所赚取的投资收益考虑在内，综合比率在107到111的范围内通常能实现整体盈亏平衡——不计股东资金产生的收益。",[14,830,831],{},"基于此前年报中阐述的理由，我们预计保险业每年的理赔损失平均会以10%的速度增长，即使总体通胀率远低于此。（过去25年来，理赔损失实际上以更快的速度增长，达到11%。）如果保费收入增长率大幅低于10%，承保亏损必然会扩大，尽管保险公司在业务转差时倾向于提取不足的准备金，可能暂时掩盖问题的严重程度。",[14,833,834],{},"去年保费收入增长远远不到所需的10%，因此承保业绩进一步恶化。（不过在我们的表中，1990年恶化的严重程度被掩盖了，因为1989年飓风雨果造成的行业损失使那一年的比率略高于趋势线。）1991年的综合比率将再度上升，大概会增加两个百分点左右。",[14,836,837],{},"只有当大多数保险公司的管理层变得足够恐惧，以至于逃离这个行业——哪怕保费价格比现在高得多他们也不想做——结果才会好转。到了某个时候，这些管理层确实会领悟到这个道理：当你发现自己身处坑中，最重要的事就是别再往下挖了。但到目前为止，这个临界点还没有到来：保险公司的管理者们仍在继续挖——虽然不情愿，但挖得很卖力。",[14,839,840],{},"如果发生一场重大的自然灾害或金融危机，形势会迅速改变。若没有这样的冲击，可能还需要一两年时间，等到承保亏损大到足以把管理层的恐惧推升到促使保费大幅上调的水平。当那一刻来临时，伯克希尔一定会做好准备——无论是在财务上还是心理上——去承接大量的保单。",[14,842,843],{},"在此期间，我们的保险业务量虽然不大，但令人满意。在本报告的下一部分，我会给各位一个评估保险业绩的分析框架。读完之后，你就会明白为什么我对我们保险业务经理人迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg) 和他的明星团队——罗德·埃尔德雷德 (Rod Eldred)、迪诺斯·约尔达努 (Dinos Iordanou)、阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 和唐·沃斯特 (Don Wurster)——的表现如此满意了。",[14,845,846],{},"在评估我们保险业务未来几年的业绩时，各位应该了解，我们正在追求一类业务，可能导致业绩出现异常波动。如果这块业务如预期扩大的话，我们的承保结果将偏离你可能预期的趋势线：大多数年份我们会略超预期，但偶尔某一年会远远低于预期。",[14,848,849],{},"我所预测的波动反映了这样一个事实：我们已成为真正的超级巨灾险（“super-cats”）的大型承保人，这类保险针对的是飓风、风暴或地震等重大灾害。这些保单的购买者是再保险公司，它们本身承保了直接保险公司的巨灾风险，希望”转让”或卸下其对特别严重灾害敞口的一部分。由于这些买方只有在保险业极度紧张——甚至一片混乱——的时刻才需要获得赔付，因此它们寻求财务实力强大的卖方。在这方面我们拥有巨大的竞争优势：在整个行业中，我们的财务实力无人能及。",[14,851,852],{},"一份典型的超级巨灾险合同相当复杂。但以一个最简单的例子来说，我们可能签下一份一年期、保额1,000万美元的保单，规定买方（一家再保险公司）只有在灾害同时造成两个结果时才能获得赔付：(1) 该再保险公司的特定损失超过一个门槛金额；且 (2) 保险行业的总损失超过一定的门槛，比如50亿美元以上。在几乎所有情况下，满足第二个条件的损失水平也会自动满足第一个条件。",[14,854,855],{},"对于这份1,000万美元的保单，我们可能收取大约300万美元的保费。假设我们一年从各类超级巨灾险保单合计收取1亿美元的保费。在这种情况下，我们在任何一个年度要么大概率报告接近1亿美元的利润，要么报告远超2亿美元的亏损。请注意，我们不像典型保险公司那样分散风险；我们是在集中风险。因此，这块业务的年综合比率几乎不会落在行业通常的100到120之间，而是会接近0或者300%。",[14,857,858],{},"大多数保险公司在财务上无法承受如此大的波动。即使有能力承受，它们也往往缺乏这样做的意愿。比如它们可能会退缩，因为手上大量的直接财产保险业务本身就会在灾难发生时给它们带来惨淡的结果，恰好是它们在超级巨灾再保险上遭受重大损失的同一时刻。此外，大多数企业管理层认为它们的股东不喜欢业绩的大幅波动。",[14,860,861],{},"我们可以采取不同的策略：我们在直接财产保险方面的业务规模很小，而且我们相信伯克希尔的股东，只要事先充分了解情况，完全能够接受利润的异常波动，前提是这种波动伴随着长期获得优异回报的前景。（查理跟我总是更喜欢波动的15%回报，而非平稳的12%。）",[14,863,864],{},"我们要强调三点：(1) 虽然我们预期超级巨灾业务在比如十年的周期内会产生令人满意的结果，但我们确信其中至少会有个别年份的结果极其糟糕；(2) 我们的预期基本上只能依赖主观判断——对于这类保险，历史损失数据对于我们今天的定价决策参考价值非常有限；(3) 虽然我们预计会承接大量的超级巨灾业务，但前提必须是价格与风险相称。如果竞争对手变得乐观，我们的承保量就会下降。事实上，这类保险近年来一直被严重低估了价格；大多数承保人最终都是被人用担架抬着离场的。",[14,866,867],{},"目前，我们相信伯克希尔是全美最大的超级巨灾险承保人。所以，如果哪天城市地区发生大地震，或者一场冬季风暴横扫欧洲，请点一支蜡烛为我们祈祷。",[56,869,870],{"id":870},"衡量保险业的表现",[14,872,873],{},"在上一部分我提到了”浮存金“——保险公司在开展业务过程中暂时持有的他人资金。由于这些资金可以用于投资，典型的财产意外险公司即使其赔付和费用超出保费收入7%到11%，仍然能够实现业务上的盈亏平衡。再说一次，这个计算排除了保险公司从净资产——即股东提供的资金——中获得的收益。",[14,875,876],{},"当然，7%到11%这个范围有许多例外。比如，保障谷物免受冰雹损害的保险几乎不产生任何浮存金。这类保险的保费是在冰雹季节即将来临之前才缴纳的，如果农民遭受损失，几乎会立即获得赔付。因此，谷物冰雹保险即使综合比率为100，保险公司也赚不到一分钱。",[14,878,879,880,883],{},"另一个极端是，涵盖医生、律师和会计师潜在责任的职业过失保险，相对于每年的保费收入产生的浮存金非常高。之所以能积累浮存金，是因为索赔往往在所谓的过失发生很长一段时间之后才被提出，而且由于冗长的诉讼程序，赔付可能还会进一步拖延。保险业把职业过失保险和某些其他类型的责任保险称为”长尾”业务，以表明保险公司在将理赔金最终支付给索赔人及其律师（还有",[823,881,882],{},"保险公司自己的","律师）之前，可以持有大笔资金相当长的一段时间。",[14,885,886],{},"在长尾业务中，综合比率为115（甚至更高）仍可能是有利可图的，因为浮存金产生的投资收益将超过赔付和费用超出保费15%的部分。不过问题在于，“长尾”意味着的恰恰就是：某一年承保的责任险业务，最初假设综合比率为115，但随着年复一年的索赔纠缠，最终全部结案后可能变成200、300甚至更糟。",[14,888,889],{},"这项业务的陷阱要求我们遵守一条经常被忽视的经营原则：虽然某些长尾业务在综合比率为110或115时可能是盈利的，但保险公司如果以这些比率作为定价目标，那注定会亏损。相反，保费定价必须留出充足的安全边际，以应对那些永远会给保险业带来昂贵意外的社会趋势。即便将目标设在100，本身就可能导致巨额亏损；瞄准110到115则无异于自杀。",[14,891,892],{},"说了这么多，到底该如何衡量一家保险公司的盈利能力呢？分析师和经理人通常看综合比率——确实，这个指标通常是判断一家公司盈利排名的好工具。但我们认为有一个更好的衡量标准，那就是将承保亏损与产生的浮存金进行对比。",[14,894,895],{},"这个损失\u002F浮存金比率，跟其他用于评估保险业绩的统计数字一样，在短期内没什么意义：单季甚至单年度的承保数据中估计成分太重，参考价值不大。但当这个比率涵盖了多年的数据后，它就能大致反映出保险业务所产生的资金成本。资金成本低说明是好生意；资金成本高说明是烂生意。",[14,897,898],{},"下表列出了我们进入保险业以来每年的承保亏损（若有的话），并将其与当年的平均浮存金进行对比。由此我们计算出了”保险业务产生的资金成本”。",[63,900,901,919],{},[66,902,903],{},[69,904,905,907,910,913,916],{},[72,906,640],{},[72,908,909],{},"承保亏损 (1)（百万美元）",[72,911,912],{},"平均浮存金 (2)（百万美元）",[72,914,915],{},"近似资金成本（1与2之比）",[72,917,918],{},"年末长期政府债券收益率",[85,920,921,938,953,968,985,1000,1015,1030,1047,1064,1079,1094,1109,1124,1139,1153,1169,1185,1201,1217,1233,1249,1265,1280],{},[69,922,923,926,929,932,935],{},[90,924,925],{},"1967",[90,927,928],{},"承保盈利",[90,930,931],{},"$ 17.3",[90,933,934],{},"低于零",[90,936,937],{},"5.50%",[69,939,940,943,945,948,950],{},[90,941,942],{},"1968",[90,944,928],{},[90,946,947],{},"19.9",[90,949,934],{},[90,951,952],{},"5.90%",[69,954,955,958,960,963,965],{},[90,956,957],{},"1969",[90,959,928],{},[90,961,962],{},"23.4",[90,964,934],{},[90,966,967],{},"6.79%",[69,969,970,973,976,979,982],{},[90,971,972],{},"1970",[90,974,975],{},"$ 0.37",[90,977,978],{},"32.4",[90,980,981],{},"1.14%",[90,983,984],{},"6.25%",[69,986,987,990,992,995,997],{},[90,988,989],{},"1971",[90,991,928],{},[90,993,994],{},"52.5",[90,996,934],{},[90,998,999],{},"5.81%",[69,1001,1002,1005,1007,1010,1012],{},[90,1003,1004],{},"1972",[90,1006,928],{},[90,1008,1009],{},"69.5",[90,1011,934],{},[90,1013,1014],{},"5.82%",[69,1016,1017,1020,1022,1025,1027],{},[90,1018,1019],{},"1973",[90,1021,928],{},[90,1023,1024],{},"73.3",[90,1026,934],{},[90,1028,1029],{},"7.27%",[69,1031,1032,1035,1038,1041,1044],{},[90,1033,1034],{},"1974",[90,1036,1037],{},"7.36",[90,1039,1040],{},"79.1",[90,1042,1043],{},"9.30%",[90,1045,1046],{},"8.13%",[69,1048,1049,1052,1055,1058,1061],{},[90,1050,1051],{},"1975",[90,1053,1054],{},"11.35",[90,1056,1057],{},"87.6",[90,1059,1060],{},"12.96%",[90,1062,1063],{},"8.03%",[69,1065,1066,1069,1071,1074,1076],{},[90,1067,1068],{},"1976",[90,1070,928],{},[90,1072,1073],{},"102.6",[90,1075,934],{},[90,1077,1078],{},"7.30%",[69,1080,1081,1084,1086,1089,1091],{},[90,1082,1083],{},"1977",[90,1085,928],{},[90,1087,1088],{},"139.0",[90,1090,934],{},[90,1092,1093],{},"7.97%",[69,1095,1096,1099,1101,1104,1106],{},[90,1097,1098],{},"1978",[90,1100,928],{},[90,1102,1103],{},"190.4",[90,1105,934],{},[90,1107,1108],{},"8.93%",[69,1110,1111,1114,1116,1119,1121],{},[90,1112,1113],{},"1979",[90,1115,928],{},[90,1117,1118],{},"227.3",[90,1120,934],{},[90,1122,1123],{},"10.08%",[69,1125,1126,1129,1131,1134,1136],{},[90,1127,1128],{},"1980",[90,1130,928],{},[90,1132,1133],{},"237.0",[90,1135,934],{},[90,1137,1138],{},"11.94%",[69,1140,1141,1143,1145,1148,1150],{},[90,1142,659],{},[90,1144,928],{},[90,1146,1147],{},"228.4",[90,1149,934],{},[90,1151,1152],{},"13.61%",[69,1154,1155,1157,1160,1163,1166],{},[90,1156,676],{},[90,1158,1159],{},"21.56",[90,1161,1162],{},"220.6",[90,1164,1165],{},"9.77%",[90,1167,1168],{},"10.64%",[69,1170,1171,1173,1176,1179,1182],{},[90,1172,692],{},[90,1174,1175],{},"33.87",[90,1177,1178],{},"231.3",[90,1180,1181],{},"14.64%",[90,1183,1184],{},"11.84%",[69,1186,1187,1189,1192,1195,1198],{},[90,1188,708],{},[90,1190,1191],{},"48.06",[90,1193,1194],{},"253.2",[90,1196,1197],{},"18.98%",[90,1199,1200],{},"11.58%",[69,1202,1203,1205,1208,1211,1214],{},[90,1204,724],{},[90,1206,1207],{},"44.23",[90,1209,1210],{},"390.2",[90,1212,1213],{},"11.34%",[90,1215,1216],{},"9.34%",[69,1218,1219,1221,1224,1227,1230],{},[90,1220,741],{},[90,1222,1223],{},"55.84",[90,1225,1226],{},"797.5",[90,1228,1229],{},"7.00%",[90,1231,1232],{},"7.60%",[69,1234,1235,1237,1240,1243,1246],{},[90,1236,758],{},[90,1238,1239],{},"55.43",[90,1241,1242],{},"1,266.7",[90,1244,1245],{},"4.38%",[90,1247,1248],{},"8.95%",[69,1250,1251,1253,1256,1259,1262],{},[90,1252,775],{},[90,1254,1255],{},"11.08",[90,1257,1258],{},"1,497.7",[90,1260,1261],{},"0.74%",[90,1263,1264],{},"9.00%",[69,1266,1267,1269,1272,1275,1278],{},[90,1268,98],{},[90,1270,1271],{},"24.40",[90,1273,1274],{},"1,541.3",[90,1276,1277],{},"1.58%",[90,1279,1093],{},[69,1281,1282,1284,1287,1290,1293],{},[90,1283,95],{},[90,1285,1286],{},"26.65",[90,1288,1289],{},"1,637.3",[90,1291,1292],{},"1.63%",[90,1294,1295],{},"8.24%",[14,1297,1298],{},"浮存金的数字是将损失准备金、损失调整费用准备金和未赚取保费准备金加总后，减去应付代理人余额、预付购置成本及适用于承受再保险的递延费用得出的。在其他保险公司可能还有其他项目需要纳入计算，但在我们这里这些项目无关紧要，已予以忽略。",[14,1300,1301],{},"1990年我们持有约16亿美元的浮存金，这些钱最终会流向他人之手。当年我们遭受的承保亏损为2,700万美元，因此我们保险业务产生的资金成本约为1.6%。如表所示，有些年份我们实现了承保盈利，在那些年份里我们的资金成本低于零。在其他年份，比如1984年，我们为浮存金支付了非常高的代价。但在从事保险业务的24个年头中，有19年我们的资金成本低于美国政府的融资成本。",[14,1303,1304],{},"这个计算有两个重要的附加说明。首先，那位胖女士连嗓子都还没润呢，更别说开口唱歌了——要到数十年后这一时期所有的损失全部尘埃落定，我们才能知道1967-1990年的真实资金成本。其次，浮存金对股东的价值会有所折扣，因为股东必须投入自有资金来支撑保险业务的运营，而且这些资金所赚取的投资收益还要面临双重征税。直接投资在税收上会更有效率。",[14,1306,1307],{},"间接投资加在股东身上的税收惩罚实际上是相当可观的。虽然计算必然不够精确，但我估计一般保险公司的股东因为税收惩罚大约会增加一个百分点左右的浮存金成本。我认为这个数字大致也适用于伯克希尔。",[14,1309,1310,1311,1314],{},"算出一家保险公司的资金成本，可以让任何分析它的人判断该业务对股东是正价值还是负价值。如果这个成本（含税收惩罚）高于其他可替代资金来源的成本，那么价值就是负的。如果成本更低，价值就是正的——而如果成本",[823,1312,1313],{},"显著","更低，那保险业务就堪称一项非常有价值的资产。",[14,1316,1317],{},"到目前为止，伯克希尔坚定地属于”显著更低”的阵营。更引人注目的是盖可保险 (GEICO) 的数据——我们目前持有其48%的股权，该公司通常能实现承保盈利。盖可保险的增长产生了越来越多可供投资的资金，其有效成本远低于零。实质上，盖可保险的保户们总的来看是在向公司支付浮存金的利息，而不是反过来。（不过，表现好才是真的好：盖可保险非凡的盈利能力源于其超高的运营效率和严格的风险分类，这一组合反过来也让保户享受到极低的保费价格。）",[14,1319,1320],{},"另一方面，许多知名的保险公司所承受的承保亏损\u002F浮存金成本，加上税收惩罚后，实际上给股东带来了负回报。此外，这些公司和行业内所有其他公司一样，很容易受到巨灾损失的冲击——一旦损失超过再保险的保护范围，资金成本可能飙升到不可思议的程度。除非这些公司能大幅改善承保业绩——而历史经验表明这几乎是不可能完成的任务——否则它们的股东将面临类似于这样一家银行的股东的处境：存款利息支出高于贷款利息收入。",[14,1322,1323],{},"总的来说，保险业务给了我们非常好的回报。我们以平均而言合理的成本扩大了浮存金规模，并且因为在这些低成本资金上赚取了良好的回报而进一步获益。确实，我们的股东因此承担了额外的税负，但（至少到目前为止）浮存金所带来的收益远远弥补了这些成本。",[14,1325,1326],{},"尤其令人欣慰的一点是，这些记录是在你们的董事长在迈克·戈德堡到来之前犯下了一些重大错误的情况下取得的。保险这行给你提供了大把犯错的机会，而每当机会敲门时，我往往都会应声开门。许多年后，这些错误的账单还在源源不断地飞来：在保险业里，愚蠢是没有诉讼时效的。",[14,1328,1329],{},"我们保险业务的内在价值永远比糖果或报纸业务更难计算。但不管用什么标准衡量，这项业务的价值都远超其账面价值。而且，尽管这项业务会不时给我们制造麻烦，但在我们所拥有的所有优秀业务中，它是最具增长潜力的。",[56,1331,1332],{"id":1332},"投资业务",[14,1334,1335],{},"下表列出我们市值超过1亿美元的普通股持仓。其中一小部分投资属于伯克希尔持股不到100%的子公司。",[63,1337,1338,1354],{},[66,1339,1340],{},[69,1341,1342,1345,1348,1351],{},[72,1343,1344],{},"持股数量",[72,1346,1347],{},"公司",[72,1349,1350],{},"成本（千美元）",[72,1352,1353],{},"1990\u002F12\u002F31市值（千美元）",[85,1355,1356,1370,1384,1398,1412,1426],{},[69,1357,1358,1361,1364,1367],{},[90,1359,1360],{},"3,000,000",[90,1362,1363],{},"大都会\u002FABC公司",[90,1365,1366],{},"$ 517,500",[90,1368,1369],{},"$ 1,377,375",[69,1371,1372,1375,1378,1381],{},[90,1373,1374],{},"46,700,000",[90,1376,1377],{},"可口可乐公司",[90,1379,1380],{},"1,023,920",[90,1382,1383],{},"2,171,550",[69,1385,1386,1389,1392,1395],{},[90,1387,1388],{},"2,400,000",[90,1390,1391],{},"联邦住房贷款抵押公司",[90,1393,1394],{},"71,729",[90,1396,1397],{},"117,000",[69,1399,1400,1403,1406,1409],{},[90,1401,1402],{},"6,850,000",[90,1404,1405],{},"盖可保险公司",[90,1407,1408],{},"45,713",[90,1410,1411],{},"1,110,556",[69,1413,1414,1417,1420,1423],{},[90,1415,1416],{},"1,727,765",[90,1418,1419],{},"华盛顿邮报公司",[90,1421,1422],{},"9,731",[90,1424,1425],{},"342,097",[69,1427,1428,1431,1434,1437],{},[90,1429,1430],{},"5,000,000",[90,1432,1433],{},"富国银行",[90,1435,1436],{},"289,431",[90,1438,1439],{},"289,375",[14,1441,1442],{},"近乎树懒般的懒散仍然是我们投资风格的基石：今年我们六大持股中的五只，一股也没有买进或卖出。唯一的例外是富国银行 (Wells Fargo)，这是一家管理一流、回报率极高的银行，我们将持股比例增加到了略低于10%——这是无需美联储批准所能持有的最高上限。其中约六分之一是1989年买入的，其余在1990年增持。",[14,1444,1445],{},"银行业并不是我们偏爱的行业。当资产是股本的20倍——这是这个行业的常见比率——即便只涉及一小部分资产的失误就可能毁掉大部分股本。而在许多大银行，失误已经成为常态而非例外。大多数失误源于一种管理上的通病，我去年在讨论”制度迫力”时描述过：管理层不自觉地模仿同行的行为，不管这样做有多蠢。在放贷方面，许多银行家以旅鼠般的狂热追随领头者；现在他们正在遭受旅鼠般的命运。",[14,1447,1448],{},"由于20:1的杠杆比率会放大管理上的优势和劣势，我们对以”便宜”的价格买入管理不善的银行毫无兴趣。相反，我们唯一感兴趣的是以合理的价格买入管理优秀的银行。",[14,1450,1451],{},"在富国银行，我们认为找到了银行业最好的管理者——卡尔·理查德 (Carl Reichardt) 和保罗·哈森 (Paul Hazen)。在很多方面，卡尔和保罗的组合让我联想到另一对搭档——大都会\u002FABC的汤姆·墨菲 (Tom Murphy) 和丹·伯克 (Dan Burke)。首先，每对搭档都是1+1大于2，因为彼此理解、信任、欣赏对方。其次，两个管理团队都给能干的人开高薪，但痛恨养冗员。第三，不管利润创下多高的纪录还是面临压力，两者控制成本的力度一样猛。最后，两者都坚守自己理解的领域，让能力而非自尊决定他们做什么。（IBM的老托马斯·沃森 (Thomas J. Watson Sr.) 遵循同样的原则：“我不是天才，”他说，“我只在某些点上聪明——不过我就围着那些点转。”）",[14,1453,1454],{},"我们在1990年买入富国银行得益于银行股市场的一片混乱。这种混乱是有道理的：一个月接一个月，那些曾经备受尊敬的银行所做的愚蠢贷款决策被公之于众。随着一笔又一笔巨额亏损被揭露——往往紧跟在管理层信誓旦旦保证一切安好之后——投资者完全有理由得出结论：没有哪家银行的数字是可信的。借着大家争相抛售银行股的东风，我们以2.9亿美元买下了富国银行10%的股权，不到税后收益的5倍，不到税前收益的3倍。",[14,1456,1457],{},"富国银行规模很大——资产达560亿美元——股本回报率超过20%，资产回报率达1.25%。我们买入这家银行十分之一的股权，大致可以等同于买下一家拥有同样财务特征的50亿美元资产银行的100%股权。但如果真要做这样一笔收购，我们大概得付出2.9亿美元两倍的价格。而且，那家溢价收购来的50亿美元银行还会给我们带来另一个难题：我们找不到一个卡尔·理查德来经营它。近年来，富国银行的高管一直是银行业中被猎头追捧最多的，但没有人能挖走这位掌门人。",[14,1459,1460],{},"当然，拥有一家银行——或者几乎任何其他企业——绝非没有风险。加州的银行面临着大地震的特定风险，地震可能对借款人造成足够的破坏，进而摧毁向他们放贷的银行。第二个风险是系统性的——严重的经济萧条或金融恐慌可能危及几乎所有高杠杆经营的机构，不管经营得多么聪明。最后，市场当时最大的担忧是西海岸的房地产价值会因为过度建设而崩溃，给为扩建项目提供融资的银行造成巨额损失。由于富国银行是领先的房地产贷款机构，被认为特别脆弱。",[14,1462,1463],{},"以上这些可能性都不能排除。不过，前两种发生的概率较低，即使房地产价值出现有意义的下跌，对于管理良好的机构也不太可能造成大麻烦。我们来算一笔账：富国银行目前在计提了超过3亿美元的贷款损失准备后，每年税前仍然可以赚10亿美元以上。如果该银行全部480亿美元贷款——不仅仅是房地产贷款——中的10%在1991年出现问题，而这些问题贷款平均造成30%的本金损失（包括收不回的利息），那么这家银行大致只是盈亏平衡。",[14,1465,1466],{},"这样一年——我们认为只是一种较低概率的可能性而非大概率事件——并不会让我们感到烦恼。事实上，在伯克希尔我们很乐意收购或投资第一年不赚钱的企业或项目，只要之后能预期在不断增长的股本上获得20%的回报。尽管如此，对加州房地产可能出现类似新英格兰地区灾难的担忧，导致富国银行的股价在1990年几个月内跌了将近50%。虽然在股价下跌之前我们就已经买了一些股票，但我们对下跌表示欢迎，因为这让我们得以用新的恐慌价格捡到更多的便宜货。",[14,1468,1469],{},"那些打算一辈子持续买入投资品的投资者，应该对市场波动采取同样的态度。然而许多人的做法恰恰相反，不合逻辑地在股价上涨时欣喜若狂，在下跌时愁眉苦脸。他们对食物价格就不会犯这种糊涂：明知自己永远都要买食物，食物降价他们高兴得很，涨价才不开心。（不喜欢降价的是卖食物的人。）同样，在布法罗新闻报我们也会为新闻纸降价而欢呼——即使这意味着我们手头大量新闻纸库存的账面价值要下调——因为我们清楚地知道，自己将永远需要购买这种产品。",[14,1471,1472],{},"同样的逻辑也指引着我们对伯克希尔投资的思考。只要我还活着（如果更长久一些，前提是伯克希尔的董事们愿意参加我安排好的降神会），我们将年复一年地买入整家企业或者企业的一部分——也就是股票。既然如此，企业价格下跌对我们有利，价格上涨则对我们不利。",[14,1474,1475,1476,1479],{},"低价最常见的原因是悲观情绪——有时是弥漫整个市场的，有时则仅限于特定公司或行业。我们",[823,1477,1478],{},"乐于","在这样的环境中做买卖，不是因为我们喜欢悲观，而是因为我们喜欢悲观带来的价格。乐观主义才是理性买家的大敌。",[14,1481,1482],{},"当然，以上并不意味着一家企业或一只股票仅仅因为不受待见就值得买入——逆向操作和从众心理一样愚蠢。关键是独立思考，而非随波逐流。不幸的是，伯特兰·罗素 (Bertrand Russell) 对人生的观察，在金融世界中体现得格外淋漓尽致：“大多数人宁死也不愿思考。许多人确实如此。”",[618,1484],{},[14,1486,1487],{},"我们去年投资组合的另一项重大变动是大幅增持了RJR纳贝斯科 (RJR Nabisco) 的债券，这种证券我们最初是在1989年底买入的。到1990年底，我们在这些证券上的投资额约为4.4亿美元，大致与市场价值相当。（不过在我写这封信的时候，它们的市值已经上涨了超过1.5亿美元。）",[14,1489,1490],{},"正如投资银行股对我们来说不同寻常一样，买入投资级以下的债券同样不寻常。但能引起我们兴趣且规模大到足以对伯克希尔的业绩产生有意义影响的机会实在太少了。因此，我们愿意审视任何类别的投资工具，只要我们了解所投资的业务，并且相信价格和价值之间可能存在显著的差距。（伍迪·艾伦 (Woody Allen) 在另一个语境下指出了开放心态的好处：“我实在不理解为什么没有更多人尝试双性恋，因为这会让你在周六晚上约到人的机会翻倍。”）",[14,1492,1493],{},"过去我们也成功地买过几次投资级以下的债券，不过那些都是传统意义上的”失翼天使”——发行时属于投资级别，但后来因为发行者陷入困境而被降级。在1984年的年报中，我们描述了买入一只失翼天使——华盛顿公用电力系统债券——的理由。",[14,1495,1496],{},"到了1980年代，一种变了味的假冒失翼天使闯入了投资领域——“垃圾债券”，这些债券在发行时就远低于投资级别。随着那个十年的推进，新发行的人造垃圾变得越来越垃圾，最终可以预见的结果发生了：垃圾债券名副其实地变成了垃圾。到1990年——甚至在经济衰退打击到来之前——金融的天空已经布满了倒下的企业的尸体。",[14,1498,1499],{},"那些膜拜债务的信徒们向我们保证这种崩溃不会发生：他们告诉我们，巨额债务会迫使经营管理者以前所未有的方式集中精力，就像在方向盘上绑一把匕首一定会让驾驶员格外小心谨慎一样。我们承认，这样一个引人注目的装置确实会造就一个警觉万分的驾驶员。但另一个确定的后果是：哪怕汽车碰到最小的坑洞或一丁点冰面，都会造成致命的——且完全不必要的——事故。而商业道路上遍布坑洞；一个要求你必须避开所有坑洞的计划就是一个注定失败的计划。",[14,1501,1502,1503,1506],{},"在《聪明的投资者》(",[823,1504,1505],{},"The Intelligent Investor",") 最后一章中，本杰明·格雷厄姆有力地驳斥了这种匕首论：“如果要我把稳健投资的秘诀浓缩成四个字，我斗胆提出这个座右铭——安全边际。”读到这篇文章42年后，我仍然深信这四个字就是正确答案。投资者没能听从这个简单的忠告，在1990年代初期就为此付出了惨痛的代价。",[14,1508,1509,1510,1513],{},"在债务狂潮的顶峰，一些资本结构被炮制出来，注定了失败的命运：有些案例中发行的债务之多，即使经营业绩极为出色也产生不了足以偿付利息的现金流。几年前有一个特别恶劣的”出生即死亡”案例：以巨额借款收购了坦帕的一家成熟电视台，利息支出甚至超过了该电视台的",[823,1511,1512],{},"总营收","。也就是说，就算你假设所有的人工、节目和服务全都是免费赠送的，这种资本结构也要求营收必须爆炸式增长——否则这家电视台注定破产。（许多为这笔收购提供融资的债券被卖给了后来倒闭的储贷机构；作为纳税人，你在为这场蠢事买单。）",[14,1515,1516],{},"这一切现在看来不可思议。但当这些蠢事发生时，那些兜售匕首的投资银行家们纷纷搬出学术界的”权威”研究——那些研究报告称，多年来低等级债券的高利率已经足以补偿其较高的违约率。因此，好心的销售人员宣称，一个多元化的垃圾债券组合将产生比高等级债券组合更高的净回报。（小心金融领域里那些基于历史业绩的”证明”：如果历史书是致富的钥匙，福布斯400富豪榜上应该全是图书馆员才对。）",[14,1518,1519],{},"不过这些销售人员的逻辑有一个漏洞——一个统计学一年级的学生就会被教导要识别的漏洞。他们假设新发行的垃圾债券与以前的低等级失翼天使完全相同，因此后者的违约经验对预测新发行债券的违约经验有意义。（这种错误就像在喝琼斯镇提供的那杯酷爱饮料之前，先去查查酷爱饮料过去的死亡率——1978年琼斯镇惨案中九百多人饮毒酷爱饮料身亡。）",[14,1521,1522],{},"这两个群体在几个关键方面当然是截然不同的。首先，失翼天使的管理者几乎无一例外地渴望重返投资级行列，并为此目标而努力。而垃圾债券的经营者通常是完全不同的品种。他们的行为很像海洛因成瘾者，把精力花在寻找下一针上，而不是治愈自己负债累累的病症。此外，典型失翼天使高管的受托责任意识，通常（虽然不总是）比那些垃圾债券发行者——不妨称之为”金融变态”——要敏锐得多。",[14,1524,1525],{},"华尔街对这些差异完全不在乎。一如既往，华尔街对某个想法的热情程度，不取决于它的优劣，而取决于它能带来多少收入。堆积如山的垃圾债券就是由一帮不在乎的人卖给一帮不动脑子的人——这两种人都不缺。",[14,1527,1528],{},"垃圾债券至今仍是一个雷区，尽管目前的价格往往只是发行价的零头。正如我们去年所说，我们从未买过新发行的垃圾债券。（唯一适合买这些东西的日子是一周中没有”y”的那天。）不过，既然市场现在一片混乱，我们倒是愿意看看有什么机会。",[14,1530,1531],{},"在RJR纳贝斯科的案例中，我们认为这家公司的信用状况比一段时间以来外界的普遍认知要好得多，我们所获得的收益率以及潜在的资本增值足以补偿我们所承担的风险（虽然风险绝非为零）。RJR出售资产的价格还不错，大幅增加了股东权益，总体上经营也走上了正轨。",[14,1533,1534],{},"然而，在我们审视整个市场后发现，大多数低等级债券仍然缺乏吸引力。1980年代华尔街的手笔比我们想象的还要糟糕：许多重要企业受到了致命伤。不过，随着垃圾债券市场持续瓦解，我们会继续寻找机会。",[56,1536,1537],{"id":1537},"可转换优先股",[14,1539,1540],{},"我们继续持有此前报告中描述的可转换优先股：所罗门公司 (Salomon Inc) 7亿美元、吉列公司 (The Gillette Company) 6亿美元、全美航空集团 (USAir Group, Inc.) 3.58亿美元和冠军国际 (Champion International Corp.) 3亿美元。我们持有的吉列优先股将于4月1日转换为1,200万股普通股。综合考虑利率水平、信用质量以及相关普通股的价格，我们可以评估：到1990年底，在所罗门和冠军国际的投资大致值我们的买入价；吉列的价值略高于成本；而全美航空的价值则远低于当初的投资成本。",[14,1542,1543],{},"在投资全美航空时，你们的董事长展现了绝妙的时机把握能力：我几乎是在该公司陷入严重困境的那一刻才跳进去的。（没有人推我；用网球术语来说，我犯了一个”非受迫性失误”。）公司的问题既来自行业整体环境，也来自合并彼得蒙航空 (Piedmont) 后的整合困难——这一点我本该预料到的，因为几乎所有的航空公司合并案最后都会引发运营混乱。",[14,1545,1546],{},"很快，艾德·科洛德尼 (Ed Colodny) 和塞斯·舒菲尔德 (Seth Schofield) 解决了第二个问题：全美航空的服务现在获得了很高的评价。但行业层面的问题被证明要严重得多。自从我们投资以来，航空业的经济状况以令人警惕的速度恶化，某些航空公司自杀式的定价策略更是雪上加霜。这种定价方式给所有航空公司带来的麻烦印证了一个重要的真理：在销售同质化产品的行业里，你很难比最蠢的竞争对手聪明多少。",[14,1548,1549],{},"不过，除非航空业在未来几年遭到毁灭性打击，否则我们在全美航空的投资应该没什么大问题。艾德和塞斯果断地通过重大运营变革来应对当前的动荡。即便如此，我们的投资安全性已经不如当初了。",[14,1551,1552,1553,1556],{},"我们的可转换优先股是相对简单的投资工具，不过我要提醒各位，如果过去的经验有任何参考价值的话，你们可能不时会读到关于这些投资的不准确或误导性报道。比如去年，有几位记者将我们所有优先股的价值等同于它们可转换成的普通股价值来计算。按照他们的逻辑，我们在所罗门的优先股——可以38美元转换为普通股——如果所罗门普通股交易价为22.80美元，那它就只值面值的60%。但这种推理有个小问题：按照这种逻辑，你就不得不得出这样的结论——可转换优先股的全部价值都来自于转换权，而所罗门的",[823,1554,1555],{},"不可","转换优先股的价值就是零，不管它的票息率或赎回条件是什么。",[14,1558,1559],{},"各位应该记住的要点是：我们的可转换优先股大部分价值源自其固定收益特性。这意味着这些证券的价值不可能低于同等条件的不可转换优先股的价值，而且可能因为拥有转换期权而更有价值。",[618,1561],{},[14,1563,1564],{},"很遗憾，我不得不以一则关于我的朋友、吉列公司CEO小科尔曼·莫克勒 (Colman Mockler, Jr.) 的消息来结束本部分。他于今年一月去世。没有哪个词比”绅士”更适合形容科尔曼了——这个词代表着正直、勇气和谦逊。把这些品质再加上科尔曼所拥有的幽默感和卓越的商业才能，你就能理解为什么我觉得与他共事是一件纯粹的快乐，也理解为什么包括我在内的所有认识他的人，都会如此怀念科尔曼。",[14,1566,1567,1568,1571],{},"在科尔曼去世前几天，吉列在一篇《福布斯》(",[823,1569,1570],{},"Forbes",") 的封面报道中获得了高度赞誉。文章的主题很简单：这家公司在剃须产品上的成功不是来自营销技巧（尽管它一再展示这方面的才能），而是源于它对品质的执着追求。这种理念使它始终把精力集中在推出更好的东西上，即使现有产品已经是业内最顶尖的。《福布斯》对吉列的描绘，事实上就是在描绘科尔曼本人。",[56,1573,1575],{"id":1574},"救命救命","救命！救命！",[14,1577,1578],{},"老读者们都知道，我总是不知廉耻地利用年度信件为伯克希尔寻找收购目标。而且，正如我们在布法罗新闻报一直宣传的那样，广告确实有用：好几家企业敲了我们的门，就因为有人在这里读到了我们有兴趣进行收购。（任何好的广告推销员都会告诉你，不做广告就想卖东西，就像在黑暗中对姑娘抛媚眼一样白搭。）",[14,1580,1581],{},"附录B收录了我几年前写给一位我们心仪的企业主\u002F经理人的信件要点。如果你个人与可能引起我们兴趣的企业没有关联，但有认识的朋友有这种关联，也许你可以把这份报告转给他。",[14,1583,1584],{},"以下是我们寻找的企业类型：",[1586,1587,1588,1592,1595,1598,1601,1604],"ol",{},[1589,1590,1591],"li",{},"具有一定规模（税后收益至少1,000万美元）；",[1589,1593,1594],{},"表现出持续稳定的盈利能力（未来前景的预测对我们意义不大，“困境反转”的情况也不感兴趣）；",[1589,1596,1597],{},"企业在很少或没有负债的情况下取得了良好的股本回报率；",[1589,1599,1600],{},"有现成的管理团队（我们提供不了）；",[1589,1602,1603],{},"简单的业务（如果技术含量太高，我们搞不懂）；",[1589,1605,1606],{},"有明确的报价（在价格未知的情况下，哪怕只是初步的讨论，我们也不想浪费双方的时间）。",[14,1608,1609],{},"我们不会进行敌意收购。我们承诺完全保密，并且会非常快地给出答复——通常在五分钟之内——告知是否有兴趣。我们倾向于现金交易，但如果我们获得的内在商业价值与我们付出的相当，也会考虑发行股票。",[14,1611,1612],{},"我们最喜欢的收购模式是布鲁姆金-弗里德曼-赫尔德曼式的。在这类案例中，公司的所有者兼管理人希望获得大量现金——有时是为了自己，但更多时候是为了家人或不参与经营的股东。同时，这些管理者希望继续保留相当的所有权，并像过去一样经营公司。我们认为，对于怀有这种目标的企业主来说，我们提供了一个特别好的选择。欢迎潜在的卖方联系过去与我们做过交易的人来了解我们的信用。",[14,1614,1615],{},"查理和我经常收到一些远远不符合我们标准的收购提案：我们发现，如果你登广告说想买牧羊犬，一大堆人会打电话来想卖给你他们的可卡犬。一首乡村歌曲中的一句歌词最能表达我们对新创企业、困境反转型项目或拍卖式出售的感受：“如果电话没有响，你就知道那是我打的。”",[14,1617,1618],{},"除了上述收购整家企业的兴趣之外，我们也有兴趣通过协商方式购买大宗但非控股的股权，类似于我们在大都会、所罗门、吉列、全美航空和冠军国际中持有的那些。不过，对于在公开股票市场上买入的建议，我们一概不感兴趣。",[56,1620,1621],{"id":1621},"其他事项",[14,1623,1624],{},"肯·蔡斯 (Ken Chace) 决定在即将召开的年度股东会上不再连任董事。在伯克希尔，我们没有强制董事退休的年龄限制（以后也绝对不会有！），但75岁、住在缅因州的肯还是决定减少自己的活动量。",[14,1626,1627],{},"1965年初巴菲特合伙公司 (Buffett Partnership, Ltd.) 取得伯克希尔控制权后，肯是我第一个选定来管理纺织业务的人选。虽然我在坚持经营纺织业务上犯了一个经济上的错误，但选择肯是完全正确的：他把业务经营得很好，在问题面前对我百分之百坦诚，并且产生了让我们得以向保险业多元化发展的资金。",[14,1629,1630],{},"我的太太苏珊 (Susan) 将被提名接替肯的董事席位。她目前是伯克希尔的第二大股东，如果她比我活得久，将继承我所有的股票，实际上控制公司。她了解并认同我关于继任管理层的想法，也认同我的观点：不管是伯克希尔本身还是旗下的子公司和重要投资，都不应该仅仅因为有人出了很高的价格就出售。",[14,1632,1633],{},"我强烈地觉得，我们企业和经理人的命运不应该取决于我个人的健康状况——这里顺便说一句，我的健康状况很好——为此我已经做了相应的安排。我和我太太的遗产计划都不是为了保全家族财富；相反，两者都旨在保持伯克希尔的特质，并将财富回馈社会。",[14,1635,1636],{},"假如我明天就去世了，你们可以确信三件事：(1) 我的股票一股也不必卖；(2) 一位与我理念相似的控股股东和经理人将接替我；(3) 伯克希尔的年收益将增加100万美元，因为查理会立刻卖掉我们的公务喷气机——“无可辩解号” (The Indefensible)（不顾我希望让它陪葬的遗愿）。",[618,1638],{},[14,1640,1641],{},"约97.3%的有效股权参与了伯克希尔1990年的股东指定捐赠计划。通过该计划捐出的款项为580万美元，受惠的慈善机构有2,600家。",[14,1643,1644],{},"我们建议新股东阅读年报中关于股东指定捐赠计划的说明。要参加未来的计划，你必须确保股份登记在实际所有人的名下，而非以经纪人、银行或存管机构的代理人名义登记。1991年8月31日前未如此登记的股份将无法参与1991年的计划。",[14,1646,1647],{},"除了伯克希尔分发的股东指定捐赠之外，我们旗下业务的经理人还贡献了包括商品在内的捐赠，每年平均约150万美元。这些捐赠主要支持当地慈善机构，如联合劝募等，为我们的业务带来的回报大致与之相当。",[14,1649,1650],{},"不过，无论是旗下业务的经理人还是母公司的高管，都不会用伯克希尔的资金去捐赠全国性项目或他们个人特别感兴趣的慈善活动，除非他们以股东身份参与股东指定捐赠计划。如果你的员工——包括你的CEO——想要给母校或者他们有个人情感联系的其他机构捐款，我们认为他们应该用自己的钱，而不是你的钱。",[618,1652],{},[14,1654,1655],{},"今年的股东年会将于1991年4月29日（星期一）上午9:30在奥马哈市中心的奥芬剧院 (Orpheum Theater) 举行。去年出席人数创下了1,300人的纪录，大约是十年前的一百倍。",[14,1657,1658],{},"我们建议大家尽早在以下酒店预订房间：(1) 丽笙-雷迪克大厦 (Radisson-Redick Tower)，一家小型（88间客房）但不错的酒店，就在奥芬剧院对面；(2) 规模大得多的红狮酒店 (Red Lion Hotel)，距奥芬剧院步行约五分钟；(3) 万豪酒店 (Marriott)，位于奥马哈西区，离波仙珠宝店约100码，开车到市中心约20分钟。我们将在万豪酒店安排巴士，分别于8:30和8:45出发前往会场，会后返回。",[14,1660,1661],{},"查理和我总是很享受股东会，希望各位都能来。我们股东的素质从提问的质量就能看出来：在我参加过的所有公司年会中，没有哪一家能像我们这样，始终保持如此高水准的、以股东利益为出发点的聪明提问。",[14,1663,1664],{},"后附的代理投票资料说明了如何获取入场所需的识别卡。由于工作日奥芬剧院周围停车位紧张，我们已经为股东们安排了附近的停车场。附件中也有相关信息。",[14,1666,1667],{},"一如往常，会后我们将安排巴士带各位前往内布拉斯加家具店和波仙珠宝店，之后再送到市中心酒店或机场。我希望大家能留出充裕的时间，好好探索这两家店的魅力。提前到达的股东可以在一周中的任何一天参观家具店；周六营业时间为上午10点至下午5:30，周日为中午至下午5:30。到那里时，别忘了去喜诗糖果推车那里看看，亲眼见证伯克希尔协同效应的黎明。",[14,1669,1670],{},"波仙珠宝店通常周日不营业，但将于4月28日（周日）中午至下午6点为股东及其宾客特别开放。去年的周日开放日上，各位让艾克乐坏了：算完当天的营业额后，他建议我们最好每个季度都开一次股东会。来波仙看看吧，就算只是来看热闹也好——这是一场你不该错过的表演。",[14,1672,1673],{},"去年股东会上的第一个问题是由11岁的尼古拉斯·肯纳 (Nicholas Kenner) 提出的，他是来自纽约的第三代伯克希尔股东。尼古拉斯可不好惹——他冲我开炮：“股价怎么跌了？”我的回答乏善可陈。",[14,1675,1676],{},"我们希望今年尼古拉斯不会因为别的事儿脱不开身。如果他来了，我们会给他机会再提第一个问题；查理和我想趁精力还充沛的时候跟他过过招。不过今年轮到查理先回答了。",[14,1678,1679],{},"沃伦·E·巴菲特",[14,1681,1682],{},"董事会主席",[14,1684,1685],{},"1991年3月1日",[56,1687,1689],{"id":1688},"附录a美国钢铁公司宣布全面更新计划","附录A：美国钢铁公司宣布全面更新计划*",[1691,1692,1693],"ul",{},[1589,1694,1695],{},"本文是本杰明·格雷厄姆于1936年撰写的一篇未曾发表的讽刺文章，1954年由作者本人提供给沃伦·巴菲特。",[14,1697,1698],{},"美国钢铁公司董事长迈伦·C·泰勒 (Myron C. Taylor) 今天宣布了外界期待已久的全世界最大工业企业的全面更新计划。出人意料的是，公司的生产和销售政策不做任何变动。相反，要彻底改造的是记账系统。通过采用并进一步完善一系列现代会计和财务手段，公司的盈利能力将发生惊人的蜕变。据估算，即使在1935年非正常低迷的经营环境下，新的记账方法也能让普通股每股报告利润接近50美元。这项改进方案是由普莱斯、培根、格思里和科尔皮茨等先生经过全面调查研究后制定的，主要包含以下六点：",[1586,1700,1701,1704,1707,1710,1713,1716],{},[1589,1702,1703],{},"将固定资产账面价值减记至负10亿美元。",[1589,1705,1706],{},"普通股面值降至1美分。",[1589,1708,1709],{},"所有薪资和工资改以认股权方式支付。",[1589,1711,1712],{},"存货账面价值降至1美元。",[1589,1714,1715],{},"优先股改为不付息、可按50%折价赎回的债券。",[1589,1717,1718],{},"设立10亿美元的或有准备金。",[618,1720],{},[14,1722,1723],{},"以下是这项非凡的更新计划的官方完整声明：",[14,1725,1726],{},"美国钢铁公司董事会很高兴地宣布，在对行业环境变化所引发的问题进行深入研究之后，已批准了一项全面改造公司会计方法的综合方案。由特别委员会在普莱斯、培根、格思里和科尔皮茨等先生的协助下完成的调查显示，我们公司在运用某些先进的记账方法方面——这些方法无需任何现金支出或任何经营和销售条件的改变即可显著提升盈利能力——已经落后于美国其他企业。董事会决定不仅要采纳这些较新的方法，还要将它们发展到更高的完美境界。董事会通过的变革可以概括为以下六个方面：",[1586,1728,1729],{},[1589,1730,1731,1732,1735],{},"固定资产减记至",[17,1733,1734],{},"负10亿美元","。",[14,1737,1738,1739,1741],{},"许多知名公司已经通过将厂房账面价值减记至1美元，从而使损益表免于一切折旧费用的负担。特别委员会指出，如果它们的厂房只值1美元，那么美国钢铁公司的固定资产价值远不如此。现在一个公认的事实是，许多工厂实际上是负债而非资产，不仅产生折旧费用，还有税费、维护和其他支出。因此，董事会决定延续1935年报告中开始的减值政策，将固定资产从1,338,522,858.96美元减记至",[17,1740,1734],{},"的整数。",[14,1743,1744],{},"这一举措的好处显而易见。随着工厂的磨损，负债也相应减少。因此，原来每年约4,700万美元的折旧费用不仅可以免除，反而会产生每年5%即5,000万美元的增值收益。这将使年收益增加不少于9,700万美元。",[1586,1746,1748,1751],{"start":1747},2,[1589,1749,1750],{},"将普通股面值降至1美分，以及",[1589,1752,1753],{},"所有薪资和工资以认股权方式支付。",[14,1755,1756],{},"许多企业已经通过向高管大量发放不计入费用的股票期权来大幅削减管理费用。这种现代手段的全部潜力显然尚未被充分认识。董事会已采纳了以下这种更为先进的方案：",[14,1758,1759],{},"公司全体员工将以认购普通股的权利作为报酬——每50美元的薪资和\u002F或工资对应一份认购权，认购价为每股50美元。普通股面值将降至1美分。",[14,1761,1762],{},"这项新计划几乎令人难以置信的好处从以下几点即可看出：",[14,1764,1765],{},"A. 公司的薪资支出将被完全消除，以1935年的运营数据为基准，每年可节约2.5亿美元。",[14,1767,1768],{},"B. 与此同时，所有员工的实际报酬将增加数倍。由于在新方法下普通股将显示极高的每股收益，股票的市场价格必将远远超过50美元的认购价，使得这些认股权轻松变现后的价值将远超它们所替代的现金工资。",[14,1770,1771],{},"C. 通过行使这些认股权，公司还将实现额外的可观年度利润。由于普通股面值设定为1美分，每认购一股将产生49.99美元的收益。不过，出于稳健会计的考虑，这项利润将不计入损益表，而是作为资本公积的贷方单独列示。",[14,1773,1774],{},"D. 公司的现金状况将得到巨大加强。取代目前每年2.5亿美元（以1935年为基准）的薪资现金流出，将是通过行使500万股普通股认购权所带来的每年2.5亿美元的现金流入。公司可观的收益和强劲的现金状况将允许发放优厚的股息，而股息又将促使认股权在发放后立即行使，从而进一步改善现金状况，进而允许更高的股息率——如此循环往复，永无止境。",[1586,1776,1778],{"start":1777},4,[1589,1779,1712],{},[14,1781,1782],{},"在经济衰退时期，由于必须将存货价值调整至市场价格，企业遭受了严重的损失。各种企业——尤其是金属和棉纺织领域——已经通过将全部或部分存货以极低的单价入账，成功地解决了这一问题。美国钢铁公司决定采取更为进取的政策，将全部存货以1美元入账。具体做法是在每年年底进行适当的减值处理，减值金额计入下文所述的或有准备金。",[14,1784,1785],{},"这种新方法带来的好处非常之大。它不仅完全消除了存货跌价的可能性，而且将大幅提升公司的年度盈利能力。年初账面价值仅为1美元的存货将在年内以极高的利润出售。据估算，这种方法每年可使我们的收益至少增加1.5亿美元——巧合的是，这个数字大约等于每年从或有准备金中冲销的金额。",[14,1787,1788],{},"特别委员会中有一份少数意见报告建议，为保持一致性并获得类似的额外好处，应收账款和现金也应减记至1美元。这一提案暂时被否决了，因为我们的审计师仍然要求，如此冲销的应收账款和现金日后的回收应贷记资本公积而非当年损益。不过，我们预计这条审计规则——它有点像马车时代的遗迹——很快将随现代趋势而改变。届时，少数意见报告将获得进一步的积极考虑。",[1586,1790,1792],{"start":1791},5,[1589,1793,1794],{},"以不付息、可按50%折价赎回的债券取代优先股。",[14,1796,1797],{},"在最近的经济萧条中，许多公司通过以大幅低于面值的价格回购自己发行的债券，将由此产生的利润计入收益，从而抵消了经营亏损。不幸的是，美国钢铁公司的信用一向极佳，因此以前没有机会享受这种丰厚的收入来源。更新计划将弥补这一不足。",[14,1799,1800],{},"方案建议每股优先股置换为面值300美元的不付息偿债基金债券，分10年等额以面值50%的价格通过抽签赎回。这将需要发行10.8亿美元的新债券，其中每年到期1.08亿美元，公司只需支付5,400万美元即可赎回，因此每年产生等额的利润。",[14,1802,1803],{},"正如上述第3条中描述的薪资计划一样，这一安排将使公司和优先股股东双方受益。后者可确保在平均五年内以面值150%的价格获得偿付。由于短期证券目前几乎没有回报，不付息的特点实际上无关紧要。公司将把目前每年2,500万美元的优先股股息支出，转变为每年5,400万美元的债券赎回利润——合计每年增加7,900万美元的收益。",[1586,1805,1807],{"start":1806},6,[1589,1808,1718],{},[14,1810,1811],{},"董事们有信心，上述改进措施将确保公司在未来任何条件下都拥有令人满意的盈利能力。然而，在现代会计方法之下，完全没有必要承受任何因不利商业发展而产生的哪怕最微小的损失风险，因为所有这些都可以通过预先设立或有准备金来应对。",[14,1813,1814],{},"特别委员会建议公司设立一笔数额相当可观的或有准备金——10亿美元。如前所述，每年将存货减记至1美元的冲销金额将由这笔准备金吸收。为防止或有准备金最终被耗尽，进一步决定每年从资本公积中划转适当金额予以补充。由于资本公积通过行使认股权（见上述第3条）预计每年至少增加2.5亿美元，因此随时可以弥补或有准备金的任何消耗。",[14,1816,1817],{},"在制定这一安排时，董事会不得不遗憾地承认，在资本、资本公积、或有准备金和其他资产负债表科目之间大笔转账这一技巧上，我们还未能超越其他重要企业已经使用的手法。事实上，我们必须承认，我们的会计分录还略嫌简单，缺少那种标志着这一领域最先进做法的极度神秘感。不过，董事会坚持在制定更新计划时以清晰和简洁为原则，即使这可能牺牲公司盈利能力方面的某些潜在好处。",[14,1819,1820],{},"为展示新方案对公司盈利能力的综合影响，我们特此提交1935年在两种基础下的简明损益表，即：",[63,1822,1823,1836],{},[66,1824,1825],{},[69,1826,1827,1830,1833],{},[72,1828,1829],{},"项目",[72,1831,1832],{},"A. 实际报告",[72,1834,1835],{},"B. 按本方案调整后的模拟数字",[85,1837,1838,1848,1859,1870,1881,1890,1900,1910,1921,1932],{},[69,1839,1840,1843,1846],{},[90,1841,1842],{},"各项来源的总收入（含公司间交易）",[90,1844,1845],{},"$ 765,000,000",[90,1847,1845],{},[69,1849,1850,1853,1856],{},[90,1851,1852],{},"薪资和工资",[90,1854,1855],{},"251,000,000",[90,1857,1858],{},"–",[69,1860,1861,1864,1867],{},[90,1862,1863],{},"其他运营费用及税金",[90,1865,1866],{},"461,000,000",[90,1868,1869],{},"311,000,000",[69,1871,1872,1875,1878],{},[90,1873,1874],{},"折旧",[90,1876,1877],{},"47,000,000",[90,1879,1880],{},"(50,000,000)",[69,1882,1883,1886,1888],{},[90,1884,1885],{},"利息",[90,1887,1430],{},[90,1889,1430],{},[69,1891,1892,1895,1897],{},[90,1893,1894],{},"债券赎回折价",[90,1896,1858],{},[90,1898,1899],{},"(54,000,000)",[69,1901,1902,1905,1908],{},[90,1903,1904],{},"优先股股息",[90,1906,1907],{},"25,000,000",[90,1909,1858],{},[69,1911,1912,1915,1918],{},[90,1913,1914],{},"归普通股收益",[90,1916,1917],{},"(24,000,000)",[90,1919,1920],{},"553,000,000",[69,1922,1923,1926,1929],{},[90,1924,1925],{},"平均流通股数",[90,1927,1928],{},"8,703,252",[90,1930,1931],{},"11,203,252",[69,1933,1934,1937,1940],{},[90,1935,1936],{},"每股收益",[90,1938,1939],{},"($2.76)",[90,1941,1942],{},"$49.80",[14,1944,1945],{},"按照一种稍显过时的惯例，下面附上美国钢铁公司截至1935年12月31日的简明模拟资产负债表，反映了拟议中的资产和负债科目变动。",[63,1947,1948,1957],{},[66,1949,1950],{},[69,1951,1952,1954],{},[72,1953,1829],{},[72,1955,1956],{},"金额",[85,1958,1959,1966,1974,1982,1990,1998,2008,2016,2023,2031,2039,2047,2055,2063,2071,2081],{},[69,1960,1961,1964],{},[90,1962,1963],{},"资产",[90,1965],{},[69,1967,1968,1971],{},[90,1969,1970],{},"固定资产净值",[90,1972,1973],{},"($1,000,000,000)",[69,1975,1976,1979],{},[90,1977,1978],{},"现金资产",[90,1980,1981],{},"142,000,000",[69,1983,1984,1987],{},[90,1985,1986],{},"应收账款",[90,1988,1989],{},"56,000,000",[69,1991,1992,1995],{},[90,1993,1994],{},"存货",[90,1996,1997],{},"1",[69,1999,2000,2003],{},[90,2001,2002],{},"杂项资产",[90,2004,2005],{},[17,2006,2007],{},"27,000,000",[69,2009,2010,2013],{},[90,2011,2012],{},"总计",[90,2014,2015],{},"($774,999,999)",[69,2017,2018,2021],{},[90,2019,2020],{},"负债",[90,2022],{},[69,2024,2025,2028],{},[90,2026,2027],{},"普通股面值1美分（面值$87,032.52）规定价值*",[90,2029,2030],{},"($3,500,000,000)",[69,2032,2033,2036],{},[90,2034,2035],{},"子公司债券及股票",[90,2037,2038],{},"113,000,000",[69,2040,2041,2044],{},[90,2042,2043],{},"新偿债基金债券",[90,2045,2046],{},"1,080,000,000",[69,2048,2049,2052],{},[90,2050,2051],{},"流动负债",[90,2053,2054],{},"69,000,000",[69,2056,2057,2060],{},[90,2058,2059],{},"或有准备金",[90,2061,2062],{},"1,000,000,000",[69,2064,2065,2068],{},[90,2066,2067],{},"其他准备金",[90,2069,2070],{},"74,000,000",[69,2072,2073,2076],{},[90,2074,2075],{},"初始盈余",[90,2077,2078],{},[17,2079,2080],{},"389,000,001",[69,2082,2083,2085],{},[90,2084,2012],{},[90,2086,2015],{},[1691,2088,2089],{},[1589,2090,2091],{},"根据弗吉尼亚州法律（公司将在该州重新注册），普通股的规定价值与面值不同。",[14,2093,2094],{},"也许没有必要向各位股东指出，现代会计方法所产生的资产负债表与较为落后时期的报表在外观上会有所不同。鉴于这些资产负债表变动将为公司带来极为可观的盈利能力，预计大家不会对资产和负债的细节过分关注。",[14,2096,2097],{},"总而言之，董事会希望指出，这一套综合方案——厂房以负数记账、薪资支出完全消除、存货在账上几乎为零——将为美国钢铁公司带来巨大的行业竞争优势。我们将能够以极低的价格出售产品，同时仍然保有可观的利润空间。董事会经过深思熟虑后认为，在更新计划之下，我们将能够以极低价格击败所有竞争对手，直到反垄断法所规定的100%市场份额上限成为唯一的障碍。",[14,2099,2100],{},"在发表这一声明时，董事会并非没有意识到某些竞争对手可能会试图通过采用类似的会计改进措施来抵消我们的新优势。不过我们有信心，美国钢铁公司作为这些钢铁用户服务新领域的首创者和先驱，凭借由此积累的独特声望，一定能够保持老客户和新客户的忠诚。此外，如有必要，我们相信可以通过引进更为先进的记账方法——目前已在我们的实验会计实验室中开发中——来维持我们当之无愧的优势地位。",[56,2102,2104],{"id":2103},"附录b关于出售企业的一些想法","附录B：关于出售企业的一些想法*",[1691,2106,2107],{},[1589,2108,2109],{},"这是我几年前写给一位曾表示可能有意出售其家族企业的人士的信件经编辑后的版本。我将它收录于此，因为这也是我想传达给其他潜在卖方的信息。——沃伦·E·巴菲特",[14,2111,2112],{},"亲爱的___________：",[14,2114,2115],{},"以下是前几天我们交谈后，我的一些想法。",[14,2117,2118],{},"大多数企业主把一生中最好的时光花在了建设自己的企业上。通过无数次重复积累的经验，他们在营销、采购、人员选拔等方面不断磨练技艺。这是一个学习的过程，某一年犯下的错误往往会促成此后年份的能力提升和成功。",[14,2120,2121],{},"相比之下，企业主一辈子只会卖一次自己的企业——往往是在情绪激动、来自各方压力交织的氛围中。很多时候，大部分压力来自中间人，他们的报酬取决于交易能否成交，而不管结果对买卖双方是好是坏。这个决定对企业主在财务上和个人层面都极其重要，这一事实反而可能让决策更容易出错，而非更不容易。而且，一生仅此一次的企业出售中犯下的错误是无法挽回的。",[14,2123,2124],{},"价格当然很重要，但往往不是交易中最关键的方面。你和你的家人拥有一家非凡的企业——在你所在的领域独一无二——任何买家都会认识到这一点。这也是一家随着时间推移会越来越有价值的企业。所以如果你决定现在不卖，将来你很可能会实现更高的价格。有了这样的认知，你就可以从容不迫地、花足够的时间去挑选你想要的买家。",[14,2126,2127],{},"如果你决定出售，我认为伯克希尔能提供大多数其他买家无法提供的一些优势。几乎所有其他买家都会归入以下两类之一：",[1586,2129,2130,2133],{},[1589,2131,2132],{},"总部在别处但从事你所在行业或相近行业的公司。这类买家——不管做出什么承诺——通常会有一批经理人自认为懂得如何经营你的业务，迟早会想要插手”帮忙”。如果收购方的规模大得多，往往还有一大批经理人，当初就是被许诺将来会让他们管理新收购的企业才招进来的。他们有自己的一套做事方法，尽管你过去的经营记录无疑远优于他们，但人性使然，到了某个时候他们就会觉得自己的方法才是更好的。你和你的家人可能有朋友曾把企业卖给更大的公司，我猜他们的经历会印证这样一种倾向：母公司总是想接管子公司的运营，尤其是当母公司自认为了解你所在的行业——或者以为自己了解的时候。",[1589,2134,2135],{},"财务操盘手，必定使用大量借款，计划在时机合适时尽快将公司转卖给公众或其他企业。这类买家最大的”贡献”往往是修改会计方法，让收益在他们脱身之前显得尽可能好看。我随信附上了一篇近期文章，描述了这类交易——由于股市上涨和此类交易资金的充裕供给，这种交易正变得越来越频繁。",[14,2137,2138],{},"如果现有所有者的唯一动机就是兑现筹码、把企业抛在身后——确实有不少卖家属于这一类——那么我刚才描述的任何一类买家都可以。但如果卖方的企业代表着一生的创造性心血，已经成为他人格和存在感不可分割的一部分，那么两类买家都有严重的缺陷。",[14,2140,2141],{},"伯克希尔是另一种买家——相当与众不同。我们买是为了拥有，但我们在母公司并没有、也不指望有运营管理人员。我们所拥有的所有企业都以极其高度的自主权在运营。在大多数情况下，那些我们已拥有多年的重要企业的经理人从未来过奥马哈，甚至彼此都没见过面。当我们买下一家企业时，卖方继续像出售前一样经营；是我们去适应他们的方法，而非相反。",[14,2143,2144],{},"我们没有任何人——无论是家族成员还是新招的MBA——曾被许诺有机会去管理我们从企业主手中买来的企业。以后也不会有。",[14,2146,2147],{},"你知道我们过去的一些收购案例。我随信附上一份我们从中收购过企业的所有人名单，欢迎你向他们核实我们的实际表现与承诺是否相符。你应该特别有兴趣去问问那几位企业经营不太顺利的卖方，看看在困难条件下我们是怎么做的。",[14,2149,2150],{},"任何买家都会告诉你他需要你本人的参与——如果他有任何脑子的话，他确实非常需要你。但很多买家，由于前面提到的原因，后来的行动与先前的话并不一致。我们会严格按照承诺行事——既因为我们做出了承诺，也因为我们需要这样做才能取得最好的经营成果。",[14,2152,2153],{},"这种需求也解释了为什么我们希望你家族中参与经营的成员保留20%的股权。我们需要80%的股权以便将收益纳入合并纳税，这对我们很重要。但同样重要的是，经营企业的家族成员仍然是所有者。说白了，除非我们确信现任管理层的核心成员会继续留下来做我们的合伙人，否则我们不会考虑收购。合同无法保证你持续的热情；我们只是相信你的话。",[14,2155,2156],{},"我会参与的领域是资本配置以及最高管理者的选拔和薪酬。其他人事决定、经营策略等等都是他的地盘。伯克希尔旗下有些经理人会跟我讨论他们的某些决策；有些则不会。这取决于他们的个性，在一定程度上也取决于他们与我个人的私交关系。",[14,2158,2159],{},"如果你决定与伯克希尔做这笔生意，我们会以现金支付。你的企业不会被伯克希尔用作任何贷款的抵押品。不会有中间人参与。",[14,2161,2162],{},"此外，不会出现交易宣布后买方又退缩或开始提出调整要求的情况（当然附带道歉，以及解释说是银行、律师、董事会等不同意）。最后，你会确切地知道你的交易对象是谁。你不会碰到一个高管出面谈判、几年后却换了别人的情况，也不会被总裁遗憾地告知他的董事会要求做这样那样的改变（或者可能要把你的企业卖掉以资助母公司的某个新项目）。",[14,2164,2165],{},"有一件事必须公平地告诉你：出售之后你并不会比现在更富有。拥有你的企业本身已经让你很富有，而且投资很稳健。出售只会改变你的财富形式，不会改变数量。如果你卖了，你将把一项你100%拥有且深刻理解的有价值资产，换成另一项有价值的资产——现金——而这些现金很可能会被投入到一些你不太了解的其他企业的小额股票中。出售通常有合理的理由，但如果交易是公平的，理由绝不是让卖方变得更富有。",[14,2167,2168],{},"我不会纠缠你；如果你有任何出售的意向，我很乐意接到你的电话。我会非常自豪能让伯克希尔与你家族的核心成员一起拥有________；我相信在财务上我们会做得很好；而且我相信在未来20年里经营这家企业，你会像过去20年一样乐在其中。",[14,2170,2171],{},"此致敬意，",[14,2173,2174],{},"\u002F签名\u002F 沃伦·E·巴菲特",[14,2176,2177],{},"(1): 原文：However, Berkshire’s corporate gains will produce an identical gain for a specific shareholder only if he eventually sells his shares at the same relationship to intrinsic value that existed when he bought them.",{"title":2179,"searchDepth":1747,"depth":1747,"links":2180},"",[2181,2183,2184,2185,2186,2187,2188,2189,2190,2191,2192,2193,2194,2195,2196,2197,2198],{"id":58,"depth":2182,"text":58},3,{"id":473,"depth":2182,"text":473},{"id":500,"depth":2182,"text":500},{"id":515,"depth":2182,"text":515},{"id":218,"depth":2182,"text":218},{"id":252,"depth":2182,"text":252},{"id":167,"depth":2182,"text":167},{"id":184,"depth":2182,"text":184},{"id":601,"depth":2182,"text":601},{"id":628,"depth":2182,"text":628},{"id":870,"depth":2182,"text":870},{"id":1332,"depth":2182,"text":1332},{"id":1537,"depth":2182,"text":1537},{"id":1574,"depth":2182,"text":1575},{"id":1621,"depth":2182,"text":1621},{"id":1688,"depth":2182,"text":1689},{"id":2103,"depth":2182,"text":2104},"致股东信",null,"1990年巴菲特致股东信，分析储蓄与贷款危机影响、投资收益表现及内在价值计算","md",{},true,61,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":2201},"1990 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2240,"slug":2241,"category":2222,"order":2182},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":2243,"slug":2244,"category":2226,"order":2182},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2246,"slug":2247,"category":2217,"order":1777},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2249,"slug":2250,"category":2222,"order":1777},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":2252,"slug":2253,"category":2226,"order":1777},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2255,"slug":2256,"category":2217,"order":1791},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2258,"slug":2259,"category":2222,"order":1791},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":2261,"slug":2262,"category":2226,"order":1791},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2264,"slug":2265,"category":2217,"order":1806},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2267,"slug":2268,"category":2222,"order":1806},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":2270,"slug":2271,"category":2226,"order":1806},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2273,"slug":2274,"category":2217,"order":2275},"1961年中 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":2367,"slug":2368,"category":2222,"order":2365},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":2370,"slug":2371,"category":2226,"order":2365},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2373,"slug":2374,"category":2217,"order":2375},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":2377,"slug":2378,"category":2222,"order":2375},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":2380,"slug":2381,"category":2226,"order":2375},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2383,"slug":2384,"category":2217,"order":2385},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":2387,"slug":2388,"category":2222,"order":2385},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":2390,"slug":2391,"category":2226,"order":2385},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2393,"slug":2394,"category":2199,"order":2395},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":2397,"slug":2398,"category":2222,"order":2395},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":2400,"slug":2401,"category":2226,"order":2395},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2403,"slug":2404,"category":2217,"order":2405},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":2407,"slug":2408,"category":2222,"order":2405},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":2410,"slug":2411,"category":2226,"order":2405},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2413,"slug":2414,"category":2217,"order":2415},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":2417,"slug":2418,"category":2222,"order":2415},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2420,"slug":2421,"category":2226,"order":2415},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2423,"slug":2424,"category":2217,"order":2425},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":2427,"slug":2428,"category":2222,"order":2425},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":2517,"slug":2518,"category":2222,"order":2515},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":2520,"slug":2521,"category":2226,"order":2515},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2523,"slug":2524,"category":2199,"order":2525},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":2527,"slug":2528,"category":2222,"order":2525},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":2530,"slug":2531,"category":2226,"order":2525},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2533,"slug":2534,"category":2217,"order":2535},"1968年11月 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":2561,"slug":2562,"category":2222,"order":2559},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":2564,"slug":2565,"category":2217,"order":2566},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":2568,"slug":2569,"category":2222,"order":2566},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":2571,"slug":2572,"category":2217,"order":2573},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":2575,"slug":2576,"category":2222,"order":2573},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":2578,"slug":2579,"category":2217,"order":2580},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":2582,"slug":2583,"category":2222,"order":2580},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2585,"slug":2586,"category":2199,"order":2587},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":2589,"slug":2590,"category":2222,"order":2587},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2592,"slug":2593,"category":2217,"order":2594},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":2596,"slug":2597,"category":2222,"order":2594},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":2599,"slug":2600,"category":2199,"order":2601},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":2603,"slug":2604,"category":2222,"order":2601},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":2606,"slug":2607,"category":2199,"order":2608},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2610,"slug":2611,"category":2222,"order":2608},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2613,"slug":2614,"category":2199,"order":2615},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2617,"slug":2618,"category":2222,"order":2615},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2620,"slug":2621,"category":2199,"order":2622},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2624,"slug":2625,"category":2222,"order":2622},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2627,"slug":2628,"category":2199,"order":2629},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2631,"slug":2632,"category":2222,"order":2629},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2634,"slug":2635,"category":2199,"order":2636},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2638,"slug":2639,"category":2222,"order":2636},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2641,"slug":2642,"category":2199,"order":2643},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2645,"slug":2646,"category":2222,"order":2643},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2648,"slug":2649,"category":2199,"order":2650},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2652,"slug":2653,"category":2222,"order":2650},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2655,"slug":2656,"category":2199,"order":2657},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2659,"slug":2660,"category":2222,"order":2657},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2662,"slug":2663,"category":2199,"order":2664},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2666,"slug":2667,"category":2222,"order":2664},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2669,"slug":2670,"category":2199,"order":2671},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2673,"slug":2674,"category":2222,"order":2671},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2676,"slug":2677,"category":2199,"order":2678},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2680,"slug":2681,"category":2222,"order":2678},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2683,"slug":2684,"category":2199,"order":2685},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2687,"slug":2688,"category":2222,"order":2685},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2690,"slug":2691,"category":2199,"order":2692},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2694,"slug":2695,"category":2222,"order":2692},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2697,"slug":2698,"category":2199,"order":2699},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2701,"slug":2702,"category":2222,"order":2699},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2704,"slug":2705,"category":2199,"order":2706},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2708,"slug":2709,"category":2222,"order":2706},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2711,"slug":2712,"category":2199,"order":2713},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2715,"slug":2716,"category":2222,"order":2713},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2718,"slug":2719,"category":2199,"order":2720},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2722,"slug":2723,"category":2222,"order":2720},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2725,"slug":2726,"category":2199,"order":2727},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2729,"slug":2730,"category":2222,"order":2727},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":5,"slug":2209,"category":2199,"order":2205},{"title":2733,"slug":2734,"category":2222,"order":2205},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2736,"slug":2737,"category":2199,"order":2738},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2740,"slug":2741,"category":2222,"order":2738},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2743,"slug":2744,"category":2199,"order":2745},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2747,"slug":2748,"category":2222,"order":2745},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2750,"slug":2751,"category":2199,"order":2752},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2754,"slug":2755,"category":2222,"order":2752},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2757,"slug":2758,"category":2199,"order":2759},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2761,"slug":2762,"category":2222,"order":2759},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2764,"slug":2765,"category":2199,"order":2766},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2768,"slug":2769,"category":2222,"order":2766},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2771,"slug":2772,"category":2199,"order":2773},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2775,"slug":2776,"category":2222,"order":2773},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2778,"slug":2779,"category":2199,"order":2780},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2782,"slug":2783,"category":2222,"order":2780},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2785,"slug":2786,"category":2199,"order":2787},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2789,"slug":2790,"category":2222,"order":2787},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2792,"slug":2793,"category":2199,"order":2794},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2796,"slug":2797,"category":2222,"order":2794},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2799,"slug":2800,"category":2199,"order":2801},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2803,"slug":2804,"category":2222,"order":2801},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2806,"slug":2807,"category":2199,"order":2808},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2810,"slug":2811,"category":2222,"order":2808},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2813,"slug":2814,"category":2199,"order":2815},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2817,"slug":2818,"category":2222,"order":2815},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2820,"slug":2821,"category":2199,"order":2822},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2824,"slug":2825,"category":2222,"order":2822},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2827,"slug":2828,"category":2199,"order":2829},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2831,"slug":2832,"category":2222,"order":2829},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2834,"slug":2835,"category":2199,"order":2836},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2838,"slug":2839,"category":2222,"order":2836},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2841,"slug":2842,"category":2199,"order":2843},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2845,"slug":2846,"category":2222,"order":2843},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2848,"slug":2849,"category":2199,"order":2850},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2852,"slug":2853,"category":2222,"order":2850},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2855,"slug":2856,"category":2199,"order":2857},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2859,"slug":2860,"category":2222,"order":2857},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2862,"slug":2863,"category":2199,"order":2864},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2866,"slug":2867,"category":2222,"order":2864},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2869,"slug":2870,"category":2199,"order":2871},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2873,"slug":2874,"category":2222,"order":2871},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2876,"slug":2877,"category":2199,"order":2878},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2880,"slug":2881,"category":2222,"order":2878},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2883,"slug":2884,"category":2199,"order":2885},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2887,"slug":2888,"category":2222,"order":2885},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2890,"slug":2891,"category":2199,"order":2892},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2894,"slug":2895,"category":2222,"order":2892},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2897,"slug":2898,"category":2199,"order":2899},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2901,"slug":2902,"category":2222,"order":2899},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2904,"slug":2905,"category":2199,"order":2906},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2908,"slug":2909,"category":2222,"order":2906},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2911,"slug":2912,"category":2199,"order":2913},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2915,"slug":2916,"category":2222,"order":2913},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2918,"slug":2919,"category":2199,"order":2920},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2922,"slug":2923,"category":2222,"order":2920},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2925,"slug":2926,"category":2199,"order":2927},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2929,"slug":2930,"category":2222,"order":2927},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2932,"slug":2933,"category":2199,"order":2934},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2936,"slug":2937,"category":2222,"order":2934},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":2939,"slug":2940,"category":2199,"order":2941},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":2943,"slug":2944,"category":2222,"order":2941},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":2946,"slug":2947,"category":2199,"order":2948},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":2950,"slug":2951,"category":2222,"order":2948},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2953,"slug":2954,"category":2199,"order":2955},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":2957,"slug":2958,"category":2222,"order":2955},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":2960,"slug":2961,"category":2199,"order":2962},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":2964,"slug":2965,"category":2222,"order":2962},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2967,"slug":2968,"category":2199,"order":2969},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":2971,"slug":2972,"category":2222,"order":2969},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":2974,"slug":2975,"category":2199,"order":2976},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":2978,"slug":2979,"category":2222,"order":2976},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":2981,"slug":2982,"category":2199,"order":2983},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":2985,"slug":2986,"category":2222,"order":2983},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2988,"slug":2989,"category":2199,"order":2990},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":2992,"slug":2993,"category":2222,"order":2990},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2995,"slug":2996,"category":2199,"order":2997},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":2999,"slug":3000,"category":2222,"order":2997},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3002,"slug":3003,"category":2199,"order":3004},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":3006,"slug":3007,"category":2222,"order":3004},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":3009,"slug":3010,"category":2222,"order":3011},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":3013,"slug":3014,"category":2222,"order":3015},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":3017,"slug":3018,"category":2222,"order":3019},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":3021,"slug":3022,"category":2222,"order":3023},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":3025,"slug":3026,"category":2222,"order":3027},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":3029,"slug":3030,"category":2222,"order":3031},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":3033,"slug":3034,"category":2222,"order":3035},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":3037,"slug":3038,"category":2222,"order":3039},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":3041,"slug":3042,"category":2222,"order":3043},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":3045,"slug":3046,"category":2222,"order":3047},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":3049,"slug":3050,"category":2222,"order":3051},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":3053,"slug":3054,"category":2222,"order":3055},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":3057,"slug":3058,"category":2222,"order":3059},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":3061,"slug":3062,"category":2222,"order":3063},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2015nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",114,{"title":3065,"slug":3066,"category":2222,"order":3067},"巴菲特：2015年扩大所得税抵免比提高最低工资更好","ba-fei-te-2015nian-kuo-da-suo-de-shui-di-mian-bi-ti-gao-zui-di-gong-zi-geng-hao",115,{"title":3069,"slug":3070,"category":2222,"order":3071},"巴菲特：2015年接受亚利桑那州立大学领导力教授杰夫·坎宁安的专访实录","ba-fei-te-2015nian-jie-shou-ya-li-sang-na-zhou-li-da-xue-ling-dao-li-jiao-shou-jie-fu-kan-ning-an-de-zhuan-fang-shi-lu",116,{"title":3073,"slug":3074,"category":2222,"order":3075},"巴菲特：2015年追忆唐基奥","ba-fei-te-2015nian-zhui-yi-tang-ji-ao",117,{"title":3077,"slug":3078,"category":2222,"order":3079},"巴菲特：2015慈善承诺倡议","ba-fei-te-2015ci-shan-cheng-nuo-chang-yi",118,{"title":3081,"slug":3082,"category":2222,"order":3083},"巴菲特：2016年对话八所商学院学生2016","ba-fei-te-2016nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-2016",119,{"title":3085,"slug":3086,"category":2222,"order":3087},"标题：《巴菲特：2017 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